Integrating multiple lines of evidence into historical biogeography hypothesis testing: a Bison bison case study

Data error propagation in stacked bioclimatic envelope models

Stacking is the process of overlaying inferred species potential distributions for multiple species based on outputs of bioclimatic envelope models (BEMs). The approach can be used to investigate patterns and processes of species richness. If data limitations on individual species distributions are inevitable, but how do they affect inferences of patterns and processes of species richness? We investigate the influence of different data sources on estimated species richness gradients in China. We fitted BEMs using species distributions data for 334 bird species obtained from (1) global range maps, (2) regional checklists, (3) museum records and surveys, and (4) citizen science data using presence-only (Mahalanobis distance), presence-background (MAXENT), and presence-absence (GAM and BRT) BEMs. Individual species predictions were stacked to generate species richness gradients. Here, we show that different data sources and BEMs can generate spatially varying gradients of species richness. The environmental predictors that best explained species distributions also differed between data sources. Models using citizen-based data had the highest accuracy, whereas those using range data had the lowest accuracy. Potential richness patterns estimated by GAM and BRT models were robust to data uncertainty. When multiple data sets exist for the same region and taxa, we advise that explicit treatments of uncertainty, such as sensitivity analyses of the input data, should be conducted during the process of modeling.

Millennial processes of population decline, range contraction and near extinction of the European bison

European bison (Bison bonasus) were widespread throughout Europe during the late Pleistocene. However, the contributions of environmental change and humans to their near extinction have never been resolved. Using process-explicit models, fossils and ancient DNA, we disentangle the combinations of threatening processes that drove population declines and regional extinctions of European bison through space and across time. We show that the population size of European bison declined abruptly at the termination of the Pleistocene in response to rapid environmental change, hunting by humans and their interaction. Human activities prevented populations of European bison from rebounding in the Holocene, despite improved environmental conditions. Hunting caused range loss in the north and east of its distribution, while land use change was responsible for losses in the west and south. Advances in hunting technologies from 1500 CE were needed to simulate low abundances observed in 1870 CE. While our findings show that humans were an important driver of the extinction of the European bison in the wild, vast areas of its range vanished during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition because of post-glacial environmental change. These areas of its former range have been climatically unsuitable for millennia and should not be considered in reintroduction efforts.

Piroplasms in farmed American bison, Bison bison from Romania

The American bison (Bison bison) is the largest terrestrial mammal of North America, with around 350,000 individuals in the wild and in private herds but the knowledge regarding the presence of different vector-borne pathigens in these mammals is very poor. Babesia and Theileria spp. are tick-borne apicomplexan parasites which are considered to be among the most commonly found blood parasites of large ruminants, often with a high economic importance. However, the knowledge on piroplasms of bisons is extremely scarce. The aim of our study was to evaluate the presence of apicomplexan parasites in blood and tissues of farmed American bison from Romania. Overall, we tested 222 blood samples and 11 tissues samples (heart, liver, and spleen) from farmed B. bison raised for meat in Romania. All the samples were analyzed by nPCR targeting the 18SrRNA gene for piroplasmids. All positive samples were sequenced and analyzed phylogenetically. The overall prevalence of infection with piroplasmids in American bison was 1.65%, with Babesia divergens and Theileria sp. identified following sequencing. To our knowledge, this is the first report of piroplasms detected in blood and tissues of farmed B. bison from Europe. Further studies are necessary in order to obtain a better overview on the epidemiological status and clinical relevance of piroplasms in farmed American bisons.

Population dynamics and demographic history of Eurasian collared lemmings

BACKGROUND

Ancient DNA studies suggest that Late Pleistocene climatic changes had a significant effect on population dynamics in Arctic species. The Eurasian collared lemming (Dicrostonyx torquatus) is a keystone species in the Arctic ecosystem. Earlier studies have indicated that past climatic fluctuations were important drivers of past population dynamics in this species.

RESULTS

Here, we analysed 59 ancient and 54 modern mitogenomes from across Eurasia, along with one modern nuclear genome. Our results suggest population growth and genetic diversification during the early Late Pleistocene, implying that collared lemmings may have experienced a genetic bottleneck during the warm Eemian interglacial. Furthermore, we find multiple temporally structured mitogenome clades during the Late Pleistocene, consistent with earlier results suggesting a dynamic late glacial population history. Finally, we identify a population in northeastern Siberia that maintained genetic diversity and a constant population size at the end of the Pleistocene, suggesting suitable conditions for collared lemmings in this region during the increasing temperatures associated with the onset of the Holocene.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights an influence of past warming, in particular the Eemian interglacial, on the evolutionary history of the collared lemming, along with spatiotemporal population structuring throughout the Late Pleistocene.

Following the niche: the differential impact of the last glacial maximum on four European ungulates

Predicting the effects of future global changes on species requires a better understanding of the ecological niche dynamics in response to climate; the large climatic fluctuations of the last 50,000 years can be used as a natural experiment to that aim. Here we test whether the realized niche of horse, aurochs, red deer, and wild boar changed between 47,000 and 7500 years ago using paleoecological modelling over an extensive archaeological database. We show that they all changed their niche, with species-specific responses to climate fluctuations. We also suggest that they survived the climatic turnovers thanks to their flexibility and by expanding their niche in response to the extinction of competitors and predators. Irrespective of the mechanism behind such processes, the fact that species with long generation times can change their niche over thousands of years cautions against assuming it to stay constant both when reconstructing the past and predicting the future.

European megafaunal ungulates living in open habitats over the last 50,000 years showed evidence for niche change, possibly driven by climatic change and extinction of competitors and predators

Birds adapted to cold conditions show greater changes in range size related to past climatic oscillations than temperate birds

Investigation of ecological responses of species to past climate oscillations provides crucial information to understand the effects of global warming. In this work, we investigated how past climate changes affected the distribution of six bird species with different climatic requirements and migratory behaviours in the Western Palearctic and in Africa. Species Distribution Models and Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 2 fossil occurrences of selected species were employed to evaluate the relation between changes in range size and species climatic tolerances. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) range predictions, generally well supported by the MIS 2 fossil occurrences, suggest that cold-dwelling species considerably expanded their distribution in the LGM, experiencing more pronounced net changes in range size compared to temperate species. Overall, the thermal niche proves to be a key ecological trait for explaining the impact of climate change in species distributions. Thermal niche is linked to range size variations due to climatic oscillations, with cold-adapted species currently suffering a more striking range reduction compared to temperate species. This work also supports the persistence of Afro-Palearctic migrations during the LGM due to the presence of climatically suitable wintering areas in Africa even during glacial maxima.

Biogeography Meets Niche Modeling: Inferring the Role of Deep Time Climate Change When Data Is Limited

Geographic range shifts are one major organism response to climate change, especially if the rate of climate change is higher than that of species adaptation. Ecological niche models (ENM) and biogeographic inferences are often used in estimating the effects of climatic oscillations on species range dynamics. ENMs can be used to track climatic suitable areas over time, but have often been limited to shallow timescales; biogeographic inference can reach greater evolutionary depth, but often lacks spatial resolution. Here, we present a simple approach that treats them as independent and complementary sources of evidence, which, when used in partnership, can be employed to reconstruct geographic range shifts over deep evolutionary timescales. For testing this, we chose two extreme African disjunctions: Camptoloma (Scrophulariaceae) and Canarina (Campanulaceae), each comprising of three species disjunctly distributed in Macaronesia and eastern/southern Africa. Using inferred ancestral ranges in tandem with preindustrial and paleoclimate ENM hindcastings, we show that the disjunct pattern was the result of fragmentation and extinction events linked to Neogene aridification cycles. Our results highlight the importance of considering temporal resolution when building ENMs for rare endemics with small population sizes and restricted climatic tolerances such as Camptoloma, for which models built on averaged monthly variables were more informative than those based on annual bioclimatic variables. Additionally, we show that biogeographic information can be used as truncation threshold criteria for building ENMs in the distant past. Our approach is suitable when there is sparse sampling on species occurrences and associated patterns of genetic variation, such as in the case of ancient endemics with widely disjunct distributions as a result of climate change.

Past and potential future population dynamics of three grouse species using ecological and whole genome coalescent modeling

Studying demographic history of species provides insight into how the past has shaped the current levels of overall biodiversity and genetic composition of species, but also how these species may react to future perturbations. Here we investigated the demographic history of the willow grouse (Lagopus lagopus), rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta), and black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) through the Late Pleistocene using two complementary methods and whole genome data. Species distribution modeling (SDM) allowed us to estimate the total range size during the Last Interglacial (LIG) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) as well as to indicate potential population subdivisions. Pairwise Sequentially Markovian Coalescent (PSMC) allowed us to assess fluctuations in effective population size across the same period. Additionally, we used SDM to forecast the effect of future climate change on the three species over the next 50 years. We found that SDM predicts the largest range size for the cold-adapted willow grouse and rock ptarmigan during the LGM. PSMC captured intraspecific population dynamics within the last glacial period, such that the willow grouse and rock ptarmigan showed multiple bottlenecks signifying recolonization events following the termination of the LGM. We also see signals of population subdivision during the last glacial period in the black grouse, but more data are needed to strengthen this hypothesis. All three species are likely to experience range contractions under future warming, with the strongest effect on willow grouse and rock ptarmigan due to their limited potential for northward expansion. Overall, by combining these two modeling approaches, we have provided a multifaceted examination of the biogeography of these species and how they have responded to climate change in the past. These results help us understand how cold-adapted species may respond to future climate changes.

Evolutionary Patterns and Processes: Lessons from Ancient DNA

Ever since its emergence in 1984, the field of ancient DNA has struggled to overcome the challenges related to the decay of DNA molecules in the fossil record. With the recent development of high-throughput DNA sequencing technologies and molecular techniques tailored to ultra-damaged templates, it has now come of age, merging together approaches in phylogenomics, population genomics, epigenomics, and metagenomics. Leveraging on complete temporal sample series, ancient DNA provides direct access to the most important dimension in evolution—time, allowing a wealth of fundamental evolutionary processes to be addressed at unprecedented resolution. This review taps into the most recent findings in ancient DNA research to present analyses of ancient genomic and metagenomic data.

Projected climate changes threaten ancient refugia of kelp forests in the North Atlantic

Intraspecific genetic variability is critical for species adaptation and evolution and yet it is generally overlooked in projections of the biological consequences of climate change. We ask whether ongoing climate changes can cause the loss of important gene pools from North Atlantic relict kelp forests that persisted over glacial-interglacial cycles. We use ecological niche modelling to predict genetic diversity hotspots for eight species of large brown algae with different thermal tolerances (Arctic to warm temperate), estimated as regions of persistence throughout the Last Glacial Maximum (20,000 YBP), the warmer Mid-Holocene (6,000 YBP), and the present. Changes in the genetic diversity within ancient refugia were projected for the future (year 2100) under two contrasting climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Models predicted distributions that matched empirical distributions in cross-validation, and identified distinct refugia at the low latitude ranges, which largely coincide among species with similar ecological niches. Transferred models into the future projected polewards expansions and substantial range losses in lower latitudes, where richer gene pools are expected (in Nova Scotia and Iberia for cold affinity species and Gibraltar, Alboran, and Morocco for warm-temperate species). These effects were projected for both scenarios but were intensified under the extreme RCP8.5 scenario, with the complete borealization (circum-Arctic colonization) of kelp forests, the redistribution of the biogeographical transitional zones of the North Atlantic, and the erosion of global gene pools across all species. As the geographic distribution of genetic variability is unknown for most marine species, our results represent a baseline for identification of locations potentially rich in unique phylogeographic lineages that are also climatic relics in threat of disappearing.

Fossil biogeography: a new model to infer dispersal, extinction and sampling from palaeontological data

Methods in historical biogeography have revolutionized our ability to infer the evolution of ancestral geographical ranges from phylogenies of extant taxa, the rates of dispersals, and biotic connectivity among areas. However, extant taxa are likely to provide limited and potentially biased information about past biogeographic processes, due to extinction, asymmetrical dispersals and variable connectivity among areas. Fossil data hold considerable information about past distribution of lineages, but suffer from largely incomplete sampling. Here we present a new dispersal–extinction–sampling (DES) model, which estimates biogeographic parameters using fossil occurrences instead of phylogenetic trees. The model estimates dispersal and extinction rates while explicitly accounting for the incompleteness of the fossil record. Rates can vary between areas and through time, thus providing the opportunity to assess complex scenarios of biogeographic evolution. We implement the DES model in a Bayesian framework and demonstrate through simulations that it can accurately infer all the relevant parameters. We demonstrate the use of our model by analysing the Cenozoic fossil record of land plants and inferring dispersal and extinction rates across Eurasia and North America. Our results show that biogeographic range evolution is not a time-homogeneous process, as assumed in most phylogenetic analyses, but varies through time and between areas. In our empirical assessment, this is shown by the striking predominance of plant dispersals from Eurasia into North America during the Eocene climatic cooling, followed by a shift in the opposite direction, and finally, a balance in biotic interchange since the middle Miocene. We conclude by discussing the potential of fossil-based analyses to test biogeographic hypotheses and improve phylogenetic methods in historical biogeography.

Glacial refugia and modern genetic diversity of 22 western North American tree species

North American tree species, subspecies and genetic varieties have primarily evolved in a landscape of extensive continental ice and restricted temperate climate environments. Here, we reconstruct the refugial history of western North American trees since the last glacial maximum using species distribution models, validated against 3571 palaeoecological records. We investigate how modern subspecies structure and genetic diversity corresponds to modelled glacial refugia, based on a meta-analysis of allelic richness and expected heterozygosity for 473 populations of 22 tree species. We find that species with strong genetic differentiation into subspecies had widespread and large glacial refugia, whereas species with restricted refugia show no differentiation among populations and little genetic diversity, despite being common over a wide range of environments today. In addition, a strong relationship between allelic richness and the size of modelled glacial refugia (r(2) = 0.55) suggest that population bottlenecks during glacial periods had a pronounced effect on the presence of rare alleles.

Pleistocene Overkill and North American Mammalian Extinctions

Clovis groups in Late Pleistocene North America occasionally hunted several now extinct large mammals. But whether their hunting drove 37 genera of animals to extinction has been disputed, largely for want of kill sites. Overkill proponents argue that there is more archaeological evidence than we ought to expect, that humans had the wherewithal to decimate what may have been millions of animals, and that the appearance of humans and the disappearance of the fauna is too striking to be a mere coincidence. Yet, there is less to these claims than meets the eye. Moreover, extinctions took place amid sweeping climatic and environmental changes as the Pleistocene came to an end. It has long been difficult to link those changes to mammalian extinctions, but the advent of ancient DNA, coupled with high-resolution paleoecological, radiocarbon, and archeological records, should help disentangle the relative role of changing climates and people in mammalian extinctions.

Differential effects of temperature change and human impact on European Late Quaternary mammalian extinctions

Species that inhabited Europe during the Late Quaternary were impacted by temperature changes and early humans, resulting in the disappearance of half of the European large mammals. However, quantifying the relative importance that each factor had in the extinction risk of species has been challenging, mostly due to the spatio-temporal biases of fossil records, which complicate the calibration of realistic and accurate ecological niche modeling. Here, we overcome this problem by using ecotypes, and not real species, to run our models. We created 40 ecotypes with different temperature requirements (mean temperature from -20 °C to 25 °C and temperature range from 10 °C to 40 °C) and used them to quantify the effect of climate change and human impact. Our results show that cold-adapted ecotypes would have been highly affected by past temperature changes in Europe, whereas temperate and warm-adapted ecotypes would have been positively affected by temperature change. Human impact affected all ecotypes negatively, and temperate ecotypes suffered the greatest impacts. Based on these results, the extinction of cold-adapted species like Mammuthus primigenius may be related to temperature change, while the extinction of temperate species, like Crocuta crocuta, may be related to human impact. Our results suggest that temperature change and human impact affected different ecotypes in distinct ways, and that the interaction of both impacts may have shaped species extinctions in Europe.

Multi-model inference in comparative phylogeography: an integrative approach based on multiple lines of evidence

Comparative phylogeography has its roots in classical biogeography and, historically, relies on a pattern-based approach. Here, we present a model-based framework for comparative phylogeography. Our framework was initially developed for statistical phylogeography based on a multi-model inference approach, by coupling ecological niche modeling, coalescent simulation and direct spatio-temporal reconstruction of lineage diffusion using a relaxed random walk model. This multi-model inference framework is particularly useful to investigate the complex dynamics and current patterns in genetic diversity in response to processes operating on multiple taxonomic levels in comparative phylogeography. In addition, because of the lack, or incompleteness of fossil record, the understanding of the role of biogeographical events (vicariance and dispersal routes) in most regions worldwide is barely known. Thus, we believe that the expansion of that framework for multiple species under a comparative approach may give clues on genetic legacies in response to Quaternary climate changes and other biogeographical processes.

Relaxed random walk model coupled with ecological niche modeling unravel the dispersal dynamics of a Neotropical savanna tree species in the deeper Quaternary

Understanding the dispersal routes of Neotropical savanna tree species is an essential step to unravel the effects of past climate change on genetic patterns, species distribution and population demography. Here we reconstruct the demographic history and dispersal dynamics of the Neotropical savanna tree species Tabebuia aurea to understand the effects of Quaternary climate change on its current spatial patterns of genetic diversity. We sampled 285 individuals from 21 populations throughout Brazilian savannas and sequenced all individuals for three chloroplast intergenic spacers and ITS nrDNA. We analyzed data using a multi-model inference framework by coupling the relaxed random walk model (RRW), ecological niche modeling (ENM) and statistical phylogeography. The most recent common ancestor of T. aurea lineages dated from ~4.0 ± 2.5 Ma. T. aurea lineages cyclically dispersed from the West toward the Central-West Brazil, and from the Southeast toward the East and Northeast Brazil, following the paleodistribution dynamics shown by the ENMs through the last glacial cycle. A historical refugium through time may have allowed dispersal of lineages among populations of Central Brazil, overlapping with population expansion during interglacial periods and the diversification of new lineages. Range and population expansion through the Quaternary were, respectively, the most frequent prediction from ENMs and the most likely demographic scenario from coalescent simulations. Consistent phylogeographic patterns among multiple modeling inferences indicate a promising approach, allowing us to understand how cyclical climate changes through the Quaternary drove complex population dynamics and the current patterns of species distribution and genetic diversity.

Major transitions in human evolution revisited: a tribute to ancient DNA

The origin and diversification of modern humans have been characterized by major evolutionary transitions and demographic changes. Patterns of genetic variation within modern populations can help with reconstructing this ∼200 thousand year-long population history. However, by combining this information with genomic data from ancient remains, one can now directly access our evolutionary past and reveal our population history in much greater detail. This review outlines the main recent achievements in ancient DNA research and illustrates how the field recently moved from the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification of short mitochondrial fragments to whole-genome sequencing and thereby revisited our own history. Ancient DNA research has revealed the routes that our ancestors took when colonizing the planet, whom they admixed with, how they domesticated plant and animal species, how they genetically responded to changes in lifestyle, and also, which pathogens decimated their populations. These approaches promise to soon solve many pending controversies about our own origins that are indecipherable from modern patterns of genetic variation alone, and therefore provide an extremely powerful toolkit for a new generation of molecular anthropologists.

Using Ancient DNA to Understand Evolutionary and Ecological Processes

Ancient DNA provides a unique means to record genetic change through time and directly observe evolutionary and ecological processes. Although mostly based on mitochondrial DNA, the increasing availability of genomic sequences is leading to unprecedented levels of resolution. Temporal studies of population genetics have revealed dynamic patterns of change in many large vertebrates, featuring localized extinctions, migrations, and population bottlenecks. The pronounced climate cycles of the Late Pleistocene have played a key role, reducing the taxonomic and genetic diversity of many taxa and shaping modern populations. Importantly, the complex series of events revealed by ancient DNA data is seldom reflected in current biogeographic patterns. DNA preserved in ancient sediments and coprolites has been used to characterize a range of paleoenvironments and reconstruct functional relationships in paleoecological systems. In the near future, genome-level surveys of ancient populations will play an increasingly important role in revealing, calibrating, and testing evolutionary processes.

Integrating fossils, phylogenies, and niche models into biogeography to reveal ancient evolutionary history: the case of Hypericum (hypericaceae)

In disciplines such as macroevolution that are not amenable to experimentation, scientists usually rely on current observations to test hypotheses about historical events, assuming that “the present is the key to the past.” Biogeographers, for example, used this assumption to reconstruct ancestral ranges from the distribution of extant species. Yet, under scenarios of high extinction rates, the biodiversity we observe today might not be representative of the historical diversity and this could result in incorrect biogeographic reconstructions. Here, we introduce a new approach to incorporate into biogeographic inference the temporal, spatial, and environmental information provided by the fossil record, as a direct evidence of the extinct biodiversity fraction. First, inferences of ancestral ranges for those nodes in the phylogeny calibrated with the fossil record are constrained to include the geographic distribution of the fossil. Second, we use fossil distribution and past climate data to reconstruct the climatic preferences and potential distribution of ancestral lineages over time, and use this information to build a biogeographic model that takes into account “ecological connectivity” through time. To show the power of this approach, we reconstruct the biogeographic history of the large angiosperm genus Hypericum, which has a fossil record extending back to the Early Cenozoic. Unlike previous reconstructions based on extant species distributions, our results reveal that Hypericum stem lineages were already distributed in the Holarctic before diversification of its crown-group, and that the geographic distribution of the genus has been relatively stable throughout the climatic oscillations of the Cenozoic. Geographical movement was mediated by the existence of climatic corridors, like Beringia, whereas the equatorial tropical belt acted as a climatic barrier, preventing Hypericum lineages to reach the southern temperate regions. Our study shows that an integrative approach to historical biogeography—that combines sources of evidence as diverse as paleontology, ecology, and phylogenetics—could help us obtain more accurate reconstructions of ancient evolutionary history. It also reveals the confounding effect different rates of extinction across regions have in biogeography, sometimes leading to ancestral areas being erroneously inferred as recent colonization events.

Recovering species demographic history from multi-model inference: the case of a Neotropical savanna tree species

Background

Glaciations were recurrent throughout the Quaternary and potentially shaped species genetic structure worldwide by affecting population dynamics. Here, we implemented a multi-model inference approach to recover the distribution dynamics and demographic history of a Neotropical savanna tree, Tabebuia aurea (Bignoniaceae). Exploring different algorithms and paleoclimatic simulations, we used ecological niche modelling to generate alternative hypotheses of potential demographic changes through the last glacial cycle and estimated genetic parameters using coalescent modelling.

Results

Comparing predictions from demographic hypotheses with genetic parameters of modern populations, our findings revealed a likely scenario of population decline, with spatial displacement towards Northeast Brazil from the last glacial maximum to the mid-Holocene. Subsequently, populations expanded in response to the return of the climatically suitable conditions in Central-West Brazil. Nevertheless, a wide historical refugium across Central Brazil likely maintained large populations connected throughout time. The expected genetic signatures from such predicted distribution dynamics are also corroborated by spatial genetic structure observed in modern populations.

Conclusion

By exploring uncertainties inherent in multiple working hypotheses, we have shown that multi-model inference is a fruitful and efficient approach to recover the nature, timing and geographical context of the Tabebuia aurea population dynamic in response to the Quaternary climate changes.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12862-014-0213-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Climate refugia: joint inference from fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeography

Climate refugia, locations where taxa survive periods of regionally adverse climate, are thought to be critical for maintaining biodiversity through the glacial-interglacial climate changes of the Quaternary. A critical research need is to better integrate and reconcile the three major lines of evidence used to infer the existence of past refugia - fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeographic surveys - in order to characterize the complex spatiotemporal trajectories of species and populations in and out of refugia. Here we review the complementary strengths, limitations and new advances for these three approaches. We provide case studies to illustrate their combined application, and point the way towards new opportunities for synthesizing these disparate lines of evidence. Case studies with European beech, Qinghai spruce and Douglas-fir illustrate how the combination of these three approaches successfully resolves complex species histories not attainable from any one approach. Promising new statistical techniques can capitalize on the strengths of each method and provide a robust quantitative reconstruction of species history. Studying past refugia can help identify contemporary refugia and clarify their conservation significance, in particular by elucidating the fine-scale processes and the particular geographic locations that buffer species against rapidly changing climate.