Evidence for r- and K-selection in a wild bird population: a reciprocal link between ecology and evolution

Population Regulation and Density-Dependent Demography in the Trinidadian Guppy

AbstractClassic theory for density-dependent selection for delayed maturation requires that a population be regulated through some combination of adult fecundity and/or juvenile survival. We tested whether those demographic conditions were met in four experimental populations of Trinidadian guppies in which delayed maturation of males evolved when the densities of those populations became high. We used monthly mark-recapture data to examine population dynamics and demography in these populations. Three of the four populations displayed clear evidence of regulation. In all four populations, monthly adult survival rates were independent of biomass density or actually increased with increased biomass density. Juvenile recruitment, which is a combination of adult fecundity and juvenile survival, decreased as biomass density increased in all four populations. Demography showed marked seasonality, with greater survival and higher recruitment in the dry season than the wet season. Population regulation via juvenile recruitment supports the hypothesis that density-dependent selection was responsible for the evolution of delayed maturity in males. This body of work represents one of the few complete tests of density-dependent selection theory.

The opportunity for selection: A slippery concept in ecology and evolution

Natural selection can only occur if individuals differ in fitness. For this reason, the variance in relative fitness has been equated with the 'opportunity for selection' ( I ), which has a long, albeit somewhat controversial, history. In this paper we discuss the use/misuse of I and related metrics in evolutionary ecology. The opportunity is only realised if some fraction of I is caused by trait variation. Thus, I > 0 does not imply that selection is occurring, as sometimes erroneously assumed, because all fitness variation could be independent of phenotype. The selection intensity on any given trait cannot exceed I , but this upper limit will never be reached because (a) stochastic factors always affect fitness, and (b) there might be multiple traits under selection. The expected magnitude of the stochastic component of I is negatively correlated with mean fitness. Uncertainty in realised I is also larger when mean fitness or population/sample size are low. Variation in I across time or space thus can be dominated (or solely driven) by variation in the strength of demographic stochasticity. We illustrate these points using simulations and empirical data from a population study on great tits Parus major. Our analysis shows that the scope for fecundity selection in the great tits is substantially higher when using annual number of recruits as the fitness measure, rather than fledglings or eggs, even after adjusting for the dependence of I on mean fitness. This suggests nonrandom survival of juveniles across families between life stages. Indeed, previous work on this population has shown that offspring recruitment is often nonrandom with respect to clutch size and laying date of parents, for example. We conclude that one cannot make direct inferences about selection based on fitness data alone. However, examining variation in ∆ I F (the opportunity for fecundity selection adjusted for mean fitness) across life stages, years or environments can offer clues as to when/where fecundity selection might be strongest, which can be useful for research planning and experimental design.

Density-dependent selection and the maintenance of colour polymorphism in barn owls

The capacity of natural selection to generate adaptive changes is (according to the fundamental theorem of natural selection) proportional to the additive genetic variance in fitness. In spite of its importance for development of new adaptations to a changing environment, processes affecting the magnitude of the genetic variance in fitness-related traits are poorly understood. Here, we show that the red-white colour polymorphism in female barn owls is subject to density-dependent selection at the phenotypic and genotypic level. The diallelic melanocortin-1 receptor gene explained a large amount of the phenotypic variance in reddish coloration in the females ([Formula: see text]). Red individuals (RR genotype) were selected for at low densities, while white individuals (WW genotype) were favoured at high densities and were less sensitive to changes in density. We show that this density-dependent selection favours white individuals and predicts fixation of the white allele in this population at longer time scales without immigration or other selective forces. Still, fluctuating population density will cause selection to fluctuate and periodically favour red individuals. These results suggest how balancing selection caused by fluctuations in population density can be a general mechanism affecting the level of additive genetic variance in natural populations.

Fitness, risk taking, and spatial behavior covary with boldness in experimental vole populations

Individuals of a population may vary along a pace-of-life syndrome from highly fecund, short-lived, bold, dispersive "fast" types at one end of the spectrum to less fecund, long-lived, shy, plastic "slow" types at the other end. Risk-taking behavior might mediate the underlying life history trade-off, but empirical evidence supporting this hypothesis is still ambiguous. Using experimentally created populations of common voles (Microtus arvalis)-a species with distinct seasonal life history trajectories-we aimed to test whether individual differences in boldness behavior covary with risk taking, space use, and fitness. We quantified risk taking, space use (via automated tracking), survival, and reproductive success (via genetic parentage analysis) in 8 to 14 experimental, mixed-sex populations of 113 common voles of known boldness type in large grassland enclosures over a significant part of their adult life span and two reproductive events. Populations were assorted to contain extreme boldness types (bold or shy) of both sexes. Bolder individuals took more risks than shyer ones, which did not affect survival. Bolder males but not females produced more offspring than shy conspecifics. Daily home range and core area sizes, based on 95% and 50% Kernel density estimates (20 ± 10 per individual, n = 54 individuals), were highly repeatable over time. Individual space use unfolded differently for sex-boldness type combinations over the course of the experiment. While day ranges decreased for shy females, they increased for bold females and all males. Space use trajectories may, hence, indicate differences in coping styles when confronted with a novel social and physical environment. Thus, interindividual differences in boldness predict risk taking under near-natural conditions and have consequences for fitness in males, which have a higher reproductive potential than females. Given extreme inter- and intra-annual fluctuations in population density in the study species and its short life span, density-dependent fluctuating selection operating differently on the sexes might maintain (co)variation in boldness, risk taking, and pace-of-life.

An Evolutionary and Ecological Community Model for Distribution of Phenotypes and Abundances among Competing Species

AbstractHere, we propose a theory for the structure of communities of competing species. We include ecologically realistic assumptions, such as density dependence and stochastic fluctuations in the environment, and analyze how evolution caused by r- and K-selection will affect the packing of species in the phenotypic space as well as the species abundance distribution. Species-specific traits have the same matrix G of additive genetic variances and covariances, and evolution of mean traits is affected by fluctuations in population size of all species. In general, the model produces a shape of the distributions of log abundances that is skewed to the left, which is typical of most natural communities. Mean phenotypes of the species in the community are distributed approximately uniformly on the surface of a multidimensional sphere. However, environmental stochasticity generates selection that deviates species slightly from this surface; nonetheless, phenotypic distribution will be different from a random packing of species. This model of community evolution provides a theoretical framework that predicts a relationship between the structure of the phenotypic space and the form of species abundance distributions that can be compared against time series of variation in community structure.

The ecological causes and consequences of hard and soft selection

Interactions between natural selection and population dynamics are central to both evolutionary-ecology and biological responses to anthropogenic change. Natural selection is often thought to incur a demographic cost that, at least temporarily, reduces population growth. However, hard and soft selection clarify that the influence of natural selection on population dynamics depends on ecological context. Under hard selection, an individual's fitness is independent of the population's phenotypic composition, and substantial population declines can occur when phenotypes are mismatched with the environment. In contrast, under soft selection, an individual's fitness is influenced by its phenotype relative to other interacting conspecifics. Soft selection generally influences which, but not how many, individuals survive and reproduce, resulting in little effect on population growth. Despite these important differences, the distinction between hard and soft selection is rarely considered in ecology. Here, we review and synthesize literature on hard and soft selection, explore their ecological causes and implications and highlight their conservation relevance to climate change, inbreeding depression, outbreeding depression and harvest. Overall, these concepts emphasise that natural selection and evolution may often have negligible or counterintuitive effects on population growth-underappreciated outcomes that have major implications in a rapidly changing world.

Density-dependent individual variation in male attractiveness in a wild field cricket

Social environments modify a male’s ability to attract females and thus affect its fitness. Theory implies that an individual’s fitness should trade-off with its ability to cope with competition. Individuals are expected to solve this trade-off differently: some males should be more attractive at low but others instead at high density. This prediction has rarely been tested in the wild. We used an automated RFID-surveillance system to quantify for each hour of the day, over 30 days (i.e., almost the entire adult lifespan of our model organism), whether a male had attracted a female in its burrow. The data were collected across a range of naturally varying local densities in wild field crickets, Gryllus campestris. We also estimated whether the shape of the relationship between attractiveness and density was under selection. At the population level, attractiveness increased from low to intermediate density, suggesting an Allee effect. Attractiveness subsequently declined at higher densities, for example, because of detrimental effects of increased competition. Opposite to expectations, males that were more attractive under low densities were also more attractive under higher densities. However, the increase in attractiveness with density varied among males, suggesting that Allee effects were individual-specific. Finally, selection was not acting on density-dependent attractiveness but males that lived longer acquired more mating partners. Our study reveals that social environments shape attractiveness in wild male insects, and imply the occurrence of individual-specific Allee effect that may be evolvable.

Density-Dependent Adaptive Topography in a Small Passerine Bird, the Collared Flycatcher

AbstractAdaptive topography is a central concept in evolutionary biology, describing how the mean fitness of a population changes with gene frequencies or mean phenotypes. We use expected population size as a quantity to be maximized by natural selection to show that selection on pairwise combinations of reproductive traits of collared flycatchers caused by fluctuations in population size generated an adaptive topography with distinct peaks often located at intermediate phenotypes. This occurred because r- and K-selection made phenotypes favored at small densities different from those with higher fitness at population sizes close to the carrying capacity K. Fitness decreased rapidly with a delay in the timing of egg laying, with a density-dependent effect especially occurring among early-laying females. The number of fledglings maximizing fitness was larger at small population sizes than when close to K. Finally, there was directional selection for large fledglings independent of population size. We suggest that these patterns can be explained by increased competition for some limiting resources or access to favorable nest sites at high population densities. Thus, r- and K-selection based on expected population size as an evolutionary maximization criterion may influence life-history evolution and constrain the selective responses to changes in the environment.

Environmental change reduces body condition, but not population growth, in a high-arctic herbivore

Environmental change influences fitness-related traits and demographic rates, which in herbivores are often linked to resource-driven variation in body condition. Coupled body condition-demographic responses may therefore be important for herbivore population dynamics in fluctuating environments, such as the Arctic. We applied a transient Life-Table Response Experiment ('transient-LTRE') to demographic data from Svalbard barnacle geese (Branta leucopsis), to quantify their population-dynamic responses to changes in body mass. We partitioned contributions from direct and delayed demographic and body condition-mediated processes to variation in population growth. Declines in body condition (1980-2017), which positively affected reproduction and fledgling survival, had negligible consequences for population growth. Instead, population growth rates were largely reproduction-driven, in part through positive responses to rapidly advancing spring phenology. The virtual lack of body condition-mediated effects indicates that herbivore population dynamics may be more resilient to changing body condition than previously expected, with implications for their persistence under environmental change.

Reduced phenotypic plasticity evolves in less predictable environments

Phenotypic plasticity is a prominent mechanism for coping with variable environments, and a key determinant of extinction risk. Evolutionary theory predicts that phenotypic plasticity should evolve to lower levels in environments that fluctuate less predictably, because they induce mismatches between plastic responses and selective pressures. However, this prediction is difficult to test in nature, where environmental predictability is not controlled. Here, we exposed 32 lines of the halotolerant microalga Dunaliella salina to ecologically realistic, randomly fluctuating salinity, with varying levels of predictability, for 500 generations. We found that morphological plasticity evolved to lower degrees in lines that experienced less predictable environments. Evolution of plasticity mostly concerned phases with slow population growth, rather than the exponential phase where microbes are typically phenotyped. This study underlines that long‐term experiments with complex patterns of environmental change are needed to test theories about population responses to altered environmental predictability, as currently observed under climate change.

Phenotypic evolution in stochastic environments: The contribution of frequency- and density-dependent selection

Understanding how environmental variation affects phenotypic evolution requires models based on ecologically realistic assumptions that include variation in population size and specific mechanisms by which environmental fluctuations affect selection. Here we generalize quantitative genetic theory for environmentally induced stochastic selection to include general forms of frequency- and density-dependent selection. We show how the relevant fitness measure under stochastic selection relates to Fisher's fundamental theorem of natural selection, and present a general class of models in which density regulation acts through total use of resources rather than just population size. In this model, there is a constant adaptive topography for expected evolution, and the function maximized in the long run is the expected factor restricting population growth. This allows us to generalize several previous results and to explain why apparently " K -selected" species with slow life histories often have low carrying capacities. Our joint analysis of density- and frequency-dependent selection reveals more clearly the relationship between population dynamics and phenotypic evolution, enabling a broader range of eco-evolutionary analyses of some of the most interesting problems in evolution in the face of environmental variation.

Contrasting patterns of density-dependent selection at different life stages can create more than one fast-slow axis of life-history variation

There has been much recent research interest in the existence of a major axis of life-history variation along a fast-slow continuum within almost all major taxonomic groups. Eco-evolutionary models of density-dependent selection provide a general explanation for such observations of interspecific variation in the "pace of life." One issue, however, is that some large-bodied long-lived "slow" species (e.g., trees and large fish) often show an explosive "fast" type of reproduction with many small offspring, and species with "fast" adult life stages can have comparatively "slow" offspring life stages (e.g., mayflies). We attempt to explain such life-history evolution using the same eco-evolutionary modeling approach but with two life stages, separating adult reproductive strategies from offspring survival strategies. When the population dynamics in the two life stages are closely linked and affect each other, density-dependent selection occurs in parallel on both reproduction and survival, producing the usual one-dimensional fast-slow continuum (e.g., houseflies to blue whales). However, strong density dependence at either the adult reproduction or offspring survival life stage creates quasi-independent population dynamics, allowing fast-type reproduction alongside slow-type survival (e.g., trees and large fish), or the perhaps rarer slow-type reproduction alongside fast-type survival (e.g., mayflies-short-lived adults producing few long-lived offspring). Therefore, most types of species life histories in nature can potentially be explained via the eco-evolutionary consequences of density-dependent selection given the possible separation of demographic effects at different life stages.

Bet-hedging across generations can affect the evolution of variance-sensitive strategies within generations

In order to understand how organisms cope with ongoing changes in environmental variability, it is necessary to consider multiple adaptations to environmental uncertainty on different time scales. Conservative bet-hedging (CBH) represents a long-term genotype-level strategy maximizing lineage geometric mean fitness in stochastic environments by decreasing individual fitness variance, despite also lowering arithmetic mean fitness. Meanwhile, variance-prone (aka risk-prone) strategies produce greater variance in short-term payoffs, because this increases expected arithmetic mean fitness if the relationship between payoffs and fitness is accelerating. Using evolutionary simulation models, we investigate whether selection for such variance-prone strategies is counteracted by selection for bet-hedging that works to adaptively reduce fitness variance. In our model, variance proneness evolves in fine-grained environments (lower correlations among individuals in energetic state and/or payoffs), and with larger numbers of independent decision events over which resources accumulate prior to selection. Conversely, multiplicative fitness accumulation, caused by coarser environmental grain and fewer decision events selection, favours CBH via greater variance aversion. We discuss examples of variance-sensitive strategies in optimal foraging, migration, life histories and cooperative breeding using this bet-hedging perspective. By linking disparate fields of research studying adaptations to variable environments, we should be better able to understand effects of human-induced rapid environmental change.

Quantification and decomposition of environment-selection relationships

In nature, selection varies across time in most environments, but we lack an understanding of how specific ecological changes drive this variation. Ecological factors can alter phenotypic selection coefficients through changes in trait distributions or individual mean fitness, even when the trait-absolute fitness relationship remains constant. We apply and extend a regression-based approach in a population of Soay sheep (Ovis aries) and suggest metrics of environment-selection relationships that can be compared across studies. We then introduce a novel method that constructs an environmentally structured fitness function. This allows calculation of full (as in existing approaches) and partial (acting separately through the absolute fitness function slope, mean fitness, and phenotype distribution) sensitivities of selection to an ecological variable. Both approaches show positive overall effects of density on viability selection of lamb mass. However, the second approach demonstrates that this relationship is largely driven by effects of density on mean fitness, rather than on the trait-fitness relationship slope. If such mechanisms of environmental dependence of selection are common, this could have important implications regarding the frequency of fluctuating selection, and how previous selection inferences relate to longer term evolutionary dynamics.

Rapid growth and large body size in annual fish populations are compromised by density-dependent regulation

We tested the effect of population density on maximum body size in three sympatric species of annual killifishes Nothobranchius spp. from African ephemeral pools. We found a clear negative effect of population density on body size, limiting their capacity for extremely fast development and rapid growth. This suggests that density-dependent population regulation and the ephemeral character of their habitat impose contrasting selective pressures on the life history of annual killifishes.

Phenological mismatch drives selection on elevation, but not on slope, of breeding time plasticity in a wild songbird

Phenotypic plasticity is an important mechanism for populations to respond to fluctuating environments, yet may be insufficient to adapt to a directionally changing environment. To study whether plasticity can evolve under current climate change, we quantified selection and genetic variation in both the elevation (RNE ) and slope (RNS ) of the breeding time reaction norm in a long-term (1973-2016) study population of great tits (Parus major). The optimal RNE (the caterpillar biomass peak date regressed against the temperature used as cue by great tits) changed over time, whereas the optimal RNS did not. Concordantly, we found strong directional selection on RNE , but not RNS , of egg-laying date in the second third of the study period; this selection subsequently waned, potentially due to increased between-year variability in optimal laying dates. We found individual and additive genetic variation in RNE but, contrary to previous studies on our population, not in RNS . The predicted and observed evolutionary change in RNE was, however, marginal, due to low heritability and the sex limitation of laying date. We conclude that adaptation to climate change can only occur via micro-evolution of RNE, but this will necessarily be slow and potentially hampered by increased variability in phenotypic optima.

Life-history evolution under fluctuating density-dependent selection and the adaptive alignment of pace-of-life syndromes

We present a novel perspective on life-history evolution that combines recent theoretical advances in fluctuating density-dependent selection with the notion of pace-of-life syndromes (POLSs) in behavioural ecology. These ideas posit phenotypic co-variation in life-history, physiological, morphological and behavioural traits as a continuum from the highly fecund, short-lived, bold, aggressive and highly dispersive 'fast' types at one end of the POLS to the less fecund, long-lived, cautious, shy, plastic and socially responsive 'slow' types at the other. We propose that such variation in life histories and the associated individual differences in behaviour can be explained through their eco-evolutionary dynamics with population density - a single and ubiquitous selective factor that is present in all biological systems. Contrasting regimes of environmental stochasticity are expected to affect population density in time and space and create differing patterns of fluctuating density-dependent selection, which generates variation in fast versus slow life histories within and among populations. We therefore predict that a major axis of phenotypic co-variation in life-history, physiological, morphological and behavioural traits (i.e. the POLS) should align with these stochastic fluctuations in the multivariate fitness landscape created by variation in density-dependent selection. Phenotypic plasticity and/or genetic (co-)variation oriented along this major POLS axis are thus expected to facilitate rapid and adaptively integrated changes in various aspects of life histories within and among populations and/or species. The fluctuating density-dependent selection POLS framework presented here therefore provides a series of clear testable predictions, the investigation of which should further our fundamental understanding of life-history evolution and thus our ability to predict natural population dynamics.

Evolution of stochastic demography with life history tradeoffs in density-dependent age-structured populations

We analyze the stochastic demography and evolution of a density-dependent age- (or stage-) structured population in a fluctuating environment. A positive linear combination of age classes (e.g., weighted by body mass) is assumed to act as the single variable of population size, [Formula: see text], exerting density dependence on age-specific vital rates through an increasing function of population size. The environment fluctuates in a stationary distribution with no autocorrelation. We show by analysis and simulation of age structure, under assumptions often met by vertebrate populations, that the stochastic dynamics of population size can be accurately approximated by a univariate model governed by three key demographic parameters: the intrinsic rate of increase and carrying capacity in the average environment, [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], and the environmental variance in population growth rate, [Formula: see text] Allowing these parameters to be genetically variable and to evolve, but assuming that a fourth parameter, [Formula: see text], measuring the nonlinearity of density dependence, remains constant, the expected evolution maximizes [Formula: see text] This shows that the magnitude of environmental stochasticity governs the classical trade-off between selection for higher [Formula: see text] versus higher [Formula: see text] However, selection also acts to decrease [Formula: see text], so the simple life-history trade-off between [Formula: see text]- and [Formula: see text]-selection may be obscured by additional trade-offs between them and [Formula: see text] Under the classical logistic model of population growth with linear density dependence ([Formula: see text]), life-history evolution in a fluctuating environment tends to maximize the average population size.

The ecology of cooperative breeding behaviour

Ecology is a fundamental driving force for the evolutionary transition from solitary living to breeding cooperatively in groups. However, the fact that both benign and harsh, as well as stable and fluctuating, environments can favour the evolution of cooperative breeding behaviour constitutes a paradox of environmental quality and sociality. Here, we propose a new model - the dual benefits framework - for resolving this paradox. Our framework distinguishes between two categories of grouping benefits - resource defence benefits that derive from group-defended critical resources and collective action benefits that result from social cooperation among group members - and uses insider-outsider conflict theory to simultaneously consider the interests of current group members (insiders) and potential joiners (outsiders) in determining optimal group size. We argue that the different grouping benefits realised from resource defence and collective action profoundly affect insider-outsider conflict resolution, resulting in predictable differences in the per capita productivity, stable group size, kin structure and stability of the social group. We also suggest that different types of environmental variation (spatial vs. temporal) select for societies that form because of the different grouping benefits, thus helping to resolve the paradox of why cooperative breeding evolves in such different types of environments.

Inter-class competition in stage-structured populations: effects of adult density on life-history traits of adult and juvenile common lizards

Ecological and evolutionary processes in natural populations are largely influenced by the population's stage-structure. Commonly, different classes have different competitive abilities, e.g., due to differences in body size, suggesting that inter-class competition may be important and largely asymmetric. However, experimental evidence states that inter-class competition, which is important, is rare and restricted to marine fish. Here, we manipulated the adult density in six semi-natural populations of the European common lizard, Zootoca vivipara, while holding juvenile density constant. Adult density affected juveniles, but not adults, in line with inter-class competition. High adult density led to lower juvenile survival and growth before hibernation. In contrast, juvenile survival after hibernation was higher in populations with high adult density, pointing to relaxed inter-class competition. As a result, annual survival was not affected by adult density, showing that differences in pre- and post-hibernation survival balanced each other out. The intensity of inter-class competition affected reproduction, performance, and body size in juveniles. Path analyses unravelled direct treatment effects on early growth (pre-hibernation) and no direct treatment effects on the parameters measured after hibernation. This points to allometry of treatment-induced differences in early growth, and it suggests that inter-class competition mainly affects the early growth of the competitively inferior class and thereby their future performance and reproduction. These results are in contrast with previous findings and, together with results in marine fish, suggest that the strength and direction of density dependence may depend on the degree of inter-class competition, and thus on the availability of resources used by the competing classes.