The Moran effect and environmental vetoes: phenological synchrony and drought drive seed production in a Mediterranean oak

Reproduction alternation in trees: testing the resource depletion hypothesis using experimental fruit removal in Quercus ilex

The keystones of resource budget models to explain mast seeding are that fruit production depletes tree stored resources, which become subsequently limiting to flower production the following year. These two hypotheses have, however, rarely been tested in forest trees. Using a fruit removal experiment, we tested whether preventing fruit development would increase nutrient and carbohydrates storage and modify allocation to reproduction and vegetative growth the following year. We removed all the fruits from nine adult Quercus ilex L. trees shortly after fruit set and compared, with nine control trees, the concentrations of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), zinc (Zn), potassium (K) and starch in leaves, twigs and trunk before, during and after the development of female flowers and fruits. The following year, we measured the production of vegetative and reproductive organs as well as their location on the new spring shoots. Fruit removal prevented the depletion of N and Zn in leaves during fruit growth. It also modified the seasonal dynamics in Zn, K and starch in twigs, but had no effect on reserves stored in the trunk. Fruit removal increased the production of female flowers and leaves the following year, and decreased the production of male flowers. Our results show that resource depletion operates differently for male and female flowering, because the timing of organ formation and the positioning of flowers in shoot architecture differ between male and female flowers. Our results suggest that N and Zn availability constrain flower production in Q. ilex, but also that other regulatory pathways might be involved. They strongly encourage further experiments manipulating fruit development over multiple years to describe the causal relationships between variations in resource storage and/or uptake, and male and female flower production in masting species.

By wind or wing: pollination syndromes and alternate bearing in horticultural systems

Cyclical fluctuations in reproductive output are widespread among perennial plants, from multi-year masting cycles in forest trees to alternate bearing in horticultural crops. In natural systems, ecological drivers such as climate and pollen limitation can result in synchrony among plants. Agricultural practices are generally assumed to outweigh ecological drivers that might synchronize alternate-bearing individuals, but this assumption has not been rigorously assessed and little is known about the role of pollen limitation as a driver of synchrony in alternate-bearing crops. We tested whether alternate-bearing perennial crops show signs of alternate bearing at a national scale and whether the magnitude of national-scale alternate bearing differs across pollination syndromes. We analysed the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations time series (1961-2018) of national crop yields across the top-producing countries of 27 alternate-bearing taxa, 6 wind-pollinated and 21 insect-pollinated. Alternate bearing was common in these national data and more pronounced in wind-pollinated taxa, which exhibited a more negative lag-1 autocorrelation and a higher coefficient of variation (CV). We highlight the mutual benefits of integrating ecological theory and agricultural data for (i) advancing our understanding of perennial plant reproduction across time, space and taxa, and (ii) promoting stable farmer livelihoods and global food supply. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.

Climate change and plant reproduction: trends and drivers of mast seeding change

Climate change is reshaping global vegetation through its impacts on plant mortality, but recruitment creates the next generation of plants and will determine the structure and composition of future communities. Recruitment depends on mean seed production, but also on the interannual variability and among-plant synchrony in seed production, the phenomenon known as mast seeding. Thus, predicting the long-term response of global vegetation dynamics to climate change requires understanding the response of masting to changing climate. Recently, data and methods have become available allowing the first assessments of long-term changes in masting. Reviewing the literature, we evaluate evidence for a fingerprint of climate change on mast seeding and discuss the drivers and impacts of these changes. We divide our discussion into the main characteristics of mast seeding: interannual variation, synchrony, temporal autocorrelation and mast frequency. Data indicate that masting patterns are changing but the direction of that change varies, likely reflecting the diversity of proximate factors underlying masting across taxa. Experiments to understand the proximate mechanisms underlying masting, in combination with the analysis of long-term datasets, will enable us to understand this observed variability in the response of masting. This will allow us to predict future shifts in masting patterns, and consequently ecosystem impacts of climate change via its impacts on masting. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.

Holm oak fecundity does not acclimate to a drier world

Climate change might impact tree fecundity by altering the relative influences of meteorological and physiological drivers, and by modifying resource investment in reproduction. Using a 13-yr monitoring of Quercus ilex reproduction in a rainfall exclusion experiment, we analysed the interactive effects of long-term increased aridity and other environmental drivers on the inter-annual variation of fecundity (male flower biomass, number of initiated and mature fruits). Summer-autumn water stress was the main driver of fruit abortion during fruit growth. Rainfall exclusion treatment strongly reduced the number of initiated and mature fruits, even in masting years, and did not increase fruit tolerance to severe drought. Conversely, the relative contribution of the meteorological and physiological drivers, and the inter-annual variability of fruit production were not modified by rainfall exclusion. Rather than inducing an acclimation of tree fecundity to water limitation, increased aridity impacted it negatively through both lower fruit initiation due to changes in resource allocation, and more severe water and resource limitations during fruit growth. Long-term increased aridity affected tree reproduction beyond what is expected from the current response to inter-annual drought variations, suggesting that natural regeneration of holm oak forest could be jeopardised in the future.

Changes in Proline Levels during Seed Development of Orthodox and Recalcitrant Seeds of Genus Acer in a Climate Change Scenario

In the present study, we examined the utility of proline usage as a biochemical indicator of metabolic changes caused by climate change (mean temperature and precipitation) during seed development of two Acer species differing in desiccation tolerance: Norway maple (Acer platanoides L.—desiccation tolerant—orthodox) and sycamore (Acer pseudoplatanus L.—desiccation sensitive—recalcitrant). In plants, proline is an element of the antioxidant system, which has a role in response to water loss and high temperatures. Our study considered whether proline could be treated as an indicator of tree seed viability, crucial for genetic resources conservation. Proline content was measured biweekly in developing seeds (between 11 and 23 weeks after flowering) collected in consecutive years (2017, 2018, and 2019). We showed that proline concentrations in recalcitrant seeds were positively correlated with mean two-week temperature. In contrast, in orthodox seeds no such relationship was found. Proline content proved to be sensitive to thermal-moisture conditions changes, which makes it a promising biochemical marker of seed desiccation tolerance in different climatic conditions.

Resource manipulation through experimental defoliation has legacy effects on allocation to reproductive and vegetative organs in Quercus ilex

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

In plants, high costs of reproduction during some years can induce trade-offs in resource allocation with other functions such as growth, survival and resistance against herbivores or extreme abiotic conditions, but also with subsequent reproduction. Such trade-offs might also occur following resource shortage at particular moments of the reproductive cycle. Because plants are modular organisms, strategies for resource allocation to reproduction can also vary among hierarchical levels. Using a defoliation experiment, our aim was to test how allocation to reproduction was impacted by resource limitation.

METHODS

We applied three levels of defoliation (control, moderate and intense) to branches of eight Quercus ilex trees shortly after fruit initiation and measured the effects of resource limitation induced by leaf removal on fruit development (survival, growth and germination potential) and on the production of vegetative and reproductive organs the year following defoliation.

KEY RESULTS

We found that defoliation had little impact on fruit development. Fruit survival was not affected by the intense defoliation treatment, but was reduced by moderate defoliation, and this result could not be explained by an upregulation of photosynthesis. Mature fruit mass was not affected by defoliation, nor was seed germination success. However, in the following spring defoliated branches produced fewer shoots and compensated for leaf loss by overproducing leaves at the expense of flowers. Therefore, resource shortage decreased resource allocation to reproduction the following season but did not affect sex ratio.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results support the idea of a regulation of resource allocation to reproduction beyond the shoot scale. Defoliation had larger legacy effects than immediate effects.

Flowering synchrony drives reproductive success in a wind-pollinated tree

Synchronised and quasi-periodic production of seeds by plant populations, known as masting, is implicated in many ecological processes, but how it arises remains poorly understood. Flowering and pollination dynamics are hypothesised to provide the mechanistic link for the observed relationship between weather and population-level seed production. We report the first experimental test of the phenological synchrony hypotheses as a driver of pollen limitation in mast seeding oaks (Quercus ilex). Higher flowering synchrony yielded greater pollination efficiency, which resulted in 2-fold greater seed set in highly synchronised oaks compared to asynchronous individuals. Pollen addition removed the negative effect of asynchronous flowering on seed set. Because phenological synchrony operates through environmental variation, this result suggests that oak masting is synchronised by exogenous rather than endogenous factors. It also points to a mechanism by which changes in flowering phenology can affect plant reproduction of mast-seeding plants, with subsequent implications for community dynamics.

How does increasing mast seeding frequency affect population dynamics of seed consumers? Wild boar as a case study

Mast seeding in temperate oak populations shapes the dynamics of seed consumers and numerous communities. Mast seeding responds positively to warm spring temperatures and is therefore expected to increase under global warming. We investigated the potential effects of changes in oak mast seeding on wild boar population dynamics, a widespread and abundant consumer species. Using long-term monitoring data, we showed that abundant acorn production enhances the proportion of breeding females. With a body-mass-structured population model and a fixed hunting rate of 0.424, we showed that high acorn production over time would lead to an average wild boar population growth rate of 1.197 whereas non-acorn production would lead to a stable population. Finally, using climate projections and a mechanistic model linking weather data to oak reproduction, we predicted that mast seeding frequency might increase over the next century, which would lead to increase in both wild boar population size and the magnitude of its temporal variation. Our study provides rare evidence that some species could greatly benefit from global warming thanks to higher food availability and therefore highlights the importance of investigating the cascading effects of changing weather conditions on the dynamics of wild animal populations to reliably assess the effects of climate change.

Is forest fecundity resistant to drought? Results from an 18-yr rainfall-reduction experiment

Recruitment is a primary determinant of the long-term dynamics of plant populations in changing environments. However, little information is known about the effects of anthropogenic environmental changes on reproductive ecology of trees. We evaluated the impact of experimentally induced 18 yr of drought on reproduction of three contrasting forest trees: Quercus ilex, Phillyrea latifolia and Arbutus unedo. Rainfall reduction did not decrease tree fecundity. Drought, however, affected the allocation of resources in Q. ilex and A. unedo but not the more drought tolerant P. latifolia. Larger crop production by Q. ilex and A. unedo was associated with a stronger decrease in growth in the rainfall-reduction plots compared with the control plots, suggesting that these species were able to maintain their fecundity by shifting their allocation of resources away from growth. Our results indicated resistance to change in tree fecundity in Mediterranean-type forest subjected to an average 15% decrease in the amount of soil moisture, suggesting that these ecosystems may adapt to a progressive increase in arid conditions. However, the species-specific reductions in growth may indirectly affect future fecundity and ultimately shift community composition, even without immediate direct effects of drought on tree fecundity.

From theory to experiments for testing the proximate mechanisms of mast seeding: an agenda for an experimental ecology

Highly variable and synchronised production of seeds by plant populations, known as masting, is implicated in many important ecological processes, but how it arises remains poorly understood. The lack of experimental studies prevents underlying mechanisms from being explicitly tested, and thereby precludes meaningful predictions on the consequences of changing environments for plant reproductive patterns and global vegetation dynamics. Here we review the most relevant proximate drivers of masting and outline a research agenda that takes the biology of masting from a largely observational field of ecology to one rooted in mechanistic understanding. We divide the experimental framework into three main processes: resource dynamics, pollen limitation and genetic and hormonal regulation, and illustrate how specific predictions about proximate mechanisms can be tested, highlighting the few successful experiments as examples. We envision that the experiments we outline will deliver new insights into how and why masting patterns might respond to a changing environment.

Flower phenology as a disruptor of the fruiting dynamics in temperate oak species

Many perennial plants display masting, that is, fruiting with strong interannual variations, irregular and synchronized between trees within the population. Here, we tested the hypothesis that the early flower phenology in temperate oak species promotes stochasticity into their fruiting dynamics, which could play a major role in tree reproductive success. From a large field monitoring network, we compared the pollen phenology between temperate and Mediterranean oak species. Then, focusing on temperate oak species, we explored the influence of the weather around the time of budburst and flowering on seed production, and simulated with a mechanistic model the consequences that an evolutionary shifting of flower phenology would have on fruiting dynamics. Temperate oak species release pollen earlier in the season than do Mediterranean oak species. Such early flowering in temperate oak species results in pollen often being released during unfavorable weather conditions and frequently results in reproductive failure. If pollen release were delayed as a result of natural selection, fruiting dynamics would exhibit much reduced stochastic variation. We propose that early flower phenology might be adaptive by making mast-seeding years rare and unpredictable, which would greatly help in controlling the dynamics of seed consumers.

Environmental Veto Synchronizes Mast Seeding in Four Contrasting Tree Species

Synchronized and variable reproduction by perennial plants, called mast seeding, is a major reproductive strategy of trees. The need to accumulate sufficient resources after depletion following fruiting (resource budget), the efficiency of mass flowering for outcross pollination (pollen coupling), or the external factors preventing reproduction (environmental veto) could all synchronize masting. We used seed production data for four species (Quercus ilex, Quercus humilis, Sorbus aucuparia, and Pinus albicaulis) to parametrize resource budget models of masting. Based on species life-history characteristics, we hypothesized that pollen coupling should synchronize reproduction in S. aucuparia and P. albicaulis, while in Q. ilex and Q. humilis, environmental veto should be a major factor. Pollen coupling was stronger in S. aucuparia and P. albicaulis than in oaks, while veto was more frequent in the latter. Yet in all species, costs of reproduction were too small to impose a replenishment period. A synchronous environmental veto, in the presence of environmental stochasticity, was sufficient to produce observed variability and synchrony in reproduction. In the past, vetoes like frost events that prevent reproduction have been perceived as negative for plants. In fact, they could be selectively favored as a way to create mast seeding.

Climate variation, reproductive frequency and acorn yield in English Oaks

AIMS -

Annually variable, but synchronous production of large seed crops ('masting') is a widespread phenomenon in temperate trees. Mounting concerns about the impacts of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) on plant reproduction, gives urgency to our need to understand better the role of climate on tree reproduction, and in particular, mast events. Unlike our understanding of reproductive phenology however, there is little consensus regarding how climate affects plant reproductive effort, or indeed the actual environmental triggers that underpin masting behaviour.

METHODS -

We used a 27-year record of acorn yield from a population of 12 Quercus robur trees located in southern England to compare masting frequency and post-dispersal acorn yield each year for each tree, with long-term weather data over the same period. We focussed on discrete or sequential climate cues (temperature, precipitation, and frost days) as likely predictors of oak reproduction.

IMPORTANT FINDINGS -

Annual post-dispersal acorn crop varied greatly; i.e. no acorns in 14 of the 27 years, but there was no sequential pattern of crop versus non-crop years indicating that weather, rather than resource limitation alone, dictated the timing of reproduction. Crop years were instead most closely associated with relatively cool late summer conditions in the preceding year, followed by anomalous summer warmth within crop year. Acorn yield increased following dry April and above average May and June temperatures within crop year. Although our results support a general association between warm late spring and summer conditions, and crop frequency and yield respectively, the influence of cooler later summer conditions in the year prior to masting highlights how a combination of weather cues may dictate the occurrence of mast years. Consequently, our results corroborate not only the hypothesis that temperature differentials between consecutive years, not absolute temperatures, may be the better predictor of mast seeding events, but lend support also to the suggestion that reproductive failure and resource accumulation resulting from a climate-linked environmental veto, drives future reproductive synchronization in temperate tree species.

Heritability and genetic architecture of reproduction-related traits in a temperate oak species

Reproduction, one of the main components of plant fitness, is highly variable in response to environmental cues, but little is known about the genetic determinism underlying reproduction-related traits in forest tree species. There is therefore an urgent need to characterize the genetic architecture of those traits if we are to predict the evolutionary trajectories of forest populations facing rapidly changing environment and mitigate their impacts. Using a full-sib family of pedunculate oak (Quercus robur), we investigated the within population variability of seed production and mean seed mass during four consecutive years. Reproductive traits were highly variable between trees and between years. The high narrow sense heritability and evolvability estimated underline the important genetic effect on the variability in seed production and mean seed mass. Despite a large variability over years, reproductive traits show significant genetic correlation between years. Furthermore, for the first time in forest tree species, quantitative trait loci (QTLs) associated with seed production and mean mass of a seed have been identified. While it is commonly assumed and observed that fitness-traits have low narrow sense heritabilities, our findings show that reproduction-related traits may undergo evolutionary changes under selective pressure and may be determinant for tree adaptation.

Correlated seed failure as an environmental veto to synchronize reproduction of masting plants

Variable, synchronized seed production, called masting, is a widespread reproductive strategy in plants. Resource dynamics, pollination success, and, as described here, environmental veto are possible proximate mechanisms driving masting. We explored the environmental veto hypothesis, which assumes that reproductive synchrony is driven by external factors preventing reproduction in some years, by extending the resource budget model of masting with correlated reproductive failure. We ran this model across its parameter space to explore how key parameters interact to drive seeding dynamics. Next, we parameterized the model based on 16 yr of seed production data for populations of red (Quercus rubra) and white (Quercus alba) oaks. We used these empirical models to simulate seeding dynamics, and compared simulated time series with patterns observed in the field. Simulations showed that resource dynamics and reproduction failure can produce masting even in the absence of pollen coupling. In concordance with this, in both oaks, among-year variation in resource gain and correlated reproductive failure were necessary and sufficient to reproduce masting, whereas pollen coupling, although present, was not necessary. Reproductive failure caused by environmental veto may drive large-scale synchronization without density-dependent pollen limitation. Reproduction-inhibiting weather events are prevalent in ecosystems, making described mechanisms likely to operate in many systems.

The Moran effect and environmental vetoes: phenological synchrony and drought drive seed production in a Mediterranean oak

Masting is the highly variable production of synchronized seed crops, and is a common reproductive strategy in plants. Weather has long been recognized as centrally involved in driving seed production in masting plants. However, the theory behind mechanisms connecting weather and seeding variation has only recently been developed, and still lacks empirical evaluation. We used 12-year long seed production data for 255 holm oaks (Quercus ilex), as well as airborne pollen and meteorological data, and tested whether masting is driven by environmental constraints: phenological synchrony and associated pollination efficiency, and drought-related acorn abscission. We found that warm springs resulted in short pollen seasons, and length of the pollen seasons was negatively related to acorn production, supporting the phenological synchrony hypothesis. Furthermore, the relationship between phenological synchrony and acorn production was modulated by spring drought, and effects of environmental vetoes on seed production were dependent on last year's environmental constraint, implying passive resource storage. Both vetoes affected among-tree synchrony in seed production. Finally, precipitation preceding acorn maturation was positively related to seed production, mitigating apparent resource depletion following high crop production in the previous year. These results provide new insights into mechanisms beyond widely reported weather and seed production correlations.

Effectiveness of predator satiation in masting oaks is negatively affected by conspecific density

Variation in seed availability shapes plant communities, and is strongly affected by seed predation. In some plant species, temporal variation in seed production is especially high and synchronized over large areas, which is called ‘mast seeding’. One selective advantage of this phenomenon is predator satiation which posits that masting helps plants escape seed predation through starvation of predators in lean years, and satiation in mast years. However, even though seed predation can be predicted to have a strong spatial component and depend on plant densities, whether the effectiveness of predator satiation in masting plants changes according to the Janzen-Connell effect has been barely investigated. We studied, over an 8-year period, the seed production, the spatiotemporal patters of weevil seed predation, and the abundance of adult weevils in a holm oak (Quercus ilex) population that consists of trees interspersed at patches covering a continuum of conspecific density. Isolated oaks effectively satiate predators, but this is trumped by increasing conspecific plant density. Lack of predator satiation in trees growing in dense patches was caused by re-distribution of insects among plants that likely attenuated them against food shortage in lean years, and changed the type of weevil functional response from type II in isolated trees to type III in trees growing in dense patches. This study provides the first empirical evaluation of the notion that masting and predator satiation should be more important in populations that start to dominate their communities, and is consistent with the observation that masting is less frequent and less intense in diverse forests.