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Jin H, Zhang C, Meng S, Wang Q, Ding X, Meng L, Zhuang Y, Yao X, Gao Y, Shi F, Mock T, Gao H. Atmospheric deposition and river runoff stimulate the utilization of dissolved organic phosphorus in coastal seas. Nat Commun 2024; 15:658. [PMID: 38291022 PMCID: PMC10828365 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-44838-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/05/2023] [Accepted: 01/08/2024] [Indexed: 02/01/2024] Open
Abstract
In coastal seas, the role of atmospheric deposition and river runoff in dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP) utilization is not well understood. Here, we address this knowledge gap by combining microcosm experiments with a global approach considering the relationship between the activity of alkaline phosphatases and changes in phytoplankton biomass in relation to the concentration of dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP). Our results suggest that the addition of aerosols and riverine water stimulate the biological utilization of DOP in coastal seas primarily by depleting DIP due to increasing nitrogen concentrations, which enhances phytoplankton growth. This "Anthropogenic Nitrogen Pump" was therefore identified to make DOP an important source of phosphorus for phytoplankton in coastal seas but only when the ratio of chlorophyll a to DIP [Log10 (Chl a / DIP)] is larger than 1.20. Our study therefore suggests that anthropogenic nitrogen input might contribute to the phosphorus cycle in coastal seas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Haoyu Jin
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System, and Key Laboratory of Marine Environment and Ecology, Ministry of Education of China, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266100, China
- Marine Ecology and Environmental Science Laboratory, Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, 266071, China
- School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK
| | - Chao Zhang
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System, and Key Laboratory of Marine Environment and Ecology, Ministry of Education of China, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266100, China.
- Marine Ecology and Environmental Science Laboratory, Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, 266071, China.
| | - Siyu Meng
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System, and Key Laboratory of Marine Environment and Ecology, Ministry of Education of China, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266100, China
- Marine Ecology and Environmental Science Laboratory, Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, 266071, China
- School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK
| | - Qin Wang
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System, and Key Laboratory of Marine Environment and Ecology, Ministry of Education of China, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266100, China
- Marine Ecology and Environmental Science Laboratory, Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, 266071, China
| | - Xiaokun Ding
- School of Ocean, Yantai University, Yantai, 264005, China
| | - Ling Meng
- CAS Key Laboratory of Coastal Environmental Processes and Ecological Remediation, Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yantai, 264003, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
| | - Yunyun Zhuang
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System, and Key Laboratory of Marine Environment and Ecology, Ministry of Education of China, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266100, China
- Marine Ecology and Environmental Science Laboratory, Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, 266071, China
| | - Xiaohong Yao
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System, and Key Laboratory of Marine Environment and Ecology, Ministry of Education of China, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266100, China
- Marine Ecology and Environmental Science Laboratory, Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, 266071, China
| | - Yang Gao
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System, and Key Laboratory of Marine Environment and Ecology, Ministry of Education of China, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266100, China
- Marine Ecology and Environmental Science Laboratory, Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, 266071, China
| | - Feng Shi
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System, and Key Laboratory of Marine Environment and Ecology, Ministry of Education of China, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266100, China
- Marine Ecology and Environmental Science Laboratory, Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, 266071, China
| | - Thomas Mock
- School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK.
| | - Huiwang Gao
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System, and Key Laboratory of Marine Environment and Ecology, Ministry of Education of China, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266100, China.
- Marine Ecology and Environmental Science Laboratory, Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, 266071, China.
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Pessarrodona A, Assis J, Filbee-Dexter K, Burrows MT, Gattuso JP, Duarte CM, Krause-Jensen D, Moore PJ, Smale DA, Wernberg T. Global seaweed productivity. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2022; 8:eabn2465. [PMID: 36103524 PMCID: PMC9473579 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abn2465] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
The magnitude and distribution of net primary production (NPP) in the coastal ocean remains poorly constrained, particularly for shallow marine vegetation. Here, using a compilation of in situ annual NPP measurements across >400 sites in 72 geographic ecoregions, we provide global predictions of the productivity of seaweed habitats, which form the largest vegetated coastal biome on the planet. We find that seaweed NPP is strongly coupled to climatic variables, peaks at temperate latitudes, and is dominated by forests of large brown seaweeds. Seaweed forests exhibit exceptionally high per-area production rates (a global average of 656 and 1711 gC m-2 year-1 in the subtidal and intertidal, respectively), being up to 10 times higher than coastal phytoplankton in temperate and polar seas. Our results show that seaweed NPP is a strong driver of production in the coastal ocean and call for its integration in the oceanic carbon cycle, where it has traditionally been overlooked.
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Affiliation(s)
- Albert Pessarrodona
- UWA Oceans Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia
- Corresponding author: ,
| | - Jorge Assis
- CCMAR, CIMAR, Universidade do Algarve, Gambelas, Faro, Portugal
| | - Karen Filbee-Dexter
- UWA Oceans Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia
- Institute of Marine Research, His, Norway
| | | | - Jean-Pierre Gattuso
- CNRS, Laboratoire d’Océanographie de Villefranche, Sorbonne Université, 181 chemin du Lazaret, F-06230 Villefranche-sur-mer, France
- Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Sciences Po, 27 rue Saint Guillaume, F-75007 Paris, France
| | - Carlos M. Duarte
- Red Sea Research Centre (RSRC) and Computational Bioscience Research Center (CBRC), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal 23955, Saudi Arabia
- Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University, Aarhus C, Denmark
| | - Dorte Krause-Jensen
- Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University, Aarhus C, Denmark
- Department of Ecoscience, Aarhus University, Vejlsøvej 25, DK-8600 Silkeborg, Denmark
| | - Pippa J. Moore
- The Dove Marine Laboratory, School of Natural and Environmental Science, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU, UK
| | - Dan A. Smale
- Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom, Citadel Hill, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UK
| | - Thomas Wernberg
- UWA Oceans Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia
- Institute of Marine Research, His, Norway
- Roskilde University, Box 260, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark
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3
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Pessarrodona A, Filbee-Dexter K, Krumhansl KA, Pedersen MF, Moore PJ, Wernberg T. A global dataset of seaweed net primary productivity. Sci Data 2022; 9:484. [PMID: 35933515 PMCID: PMC9357081 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-022-01554-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/21/2021] [Accepted: 06/29/2022] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Net primary productivity (NPP) plays a pivotal role in the global carbon balance but estimating the NPP of underwater habitats remains a challenging task. Seaweeds (marine macroalgae) form the largest and most productive underwater vegetated habitat on Earth. Yet, little is known about the distribution of their NPP at large spatial scales, despite more than 70 years of local-scale studies being scattered throughout the literature. We present a global dataset containing NPP records for 246 seaweed taxa at 429 individual sites distributed on all continents from the intertidal to 55 m depth. All records are standardized to annual aerial carbon production (g C m−2 yr−1) and are accompanied by detailed taxonomic and methodological information. The dataset presented here provides a basis for local, regional and global comparative studies of the NPP of underwater vegetation and is pivotal for achieving a better understanding of the role seaweeds play in the global coastal carbon cycle. Measurement(s) | Seaweed net primary productivity | Technology Type(s) | photorespirometry, biomass accumulation, eddy covariance | Factor Type(s) | Annual per-area net primary productivity | Sample Characteristic - Organism | Phaeophyceae • Rhodophyta • Chlorophyta | Sample Characteristic - Environment | marine biome | Sample Characteristic - Location | Global |
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Affiliation(s)
- Albert Pessarrodona
- UWA Oceans Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia, 6009, Australia.
| | - Karen Filbee-Dexter
- UWA Oceans Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia, 6009, Australia.,Institute of Marine Research, His, Bergen, Norway
| | - Kira A Krumhansl
- Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, Canada
| | - Morten F Pedersen
- Department of Science and Environment, Roskilde University, Universitetsvej 1, DK-4000, Roskilde, Denmark
| | - Pippa J Moore
- School of Natural and Environmental Sciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle-Upon-Tyne, NE1 7RU, UK
| | - Thomas Wernberg
- UWA Oceans Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia, 6009, Australia.,Institute of Marine Research, His, Bergen, Norway.,Department of Science and Environment, Roskilde University, Universitetsvej 1, DK-4000, Roskilde, Denmark
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4
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O'Donncha F, Hu Y, Palmes P, Burke M, Filgueira R, Grant J. A spatio-temporal LSTM model to forecast across multiple temporal and spatial scales. ECOL INFORM 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2022.101687] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
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5
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A Flood Risk Management Model to Identify Optimal Defence Policies in Coastal Areas Considering Uncertainties in Climate Projections. WATER 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/w14091481] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to flooding from heavy rainfall, sea storm surge, or a combination of the two. Recent studies project higher intensity and frequency of heavy rains, and progressive sea level rise continuing over the next decades. Pre-emptive and optimal flood defense policies that adaptively address climate change are needed. However, future climate projections have significant uncertainty due to multiple factors: (a) future CO2 emission scenarios; (b) uncertainties in climate modelling; (c) discount factor changes due to market fluctuations; (d) uncertain migration and population growth dynamics. Here, a methodology is proposed to identify the optimal design and timing of flood defense structures in which uncertainties in 21st century climate projections are explicitly considered probabilistically. A multi-objective optimization model is developed to minimize both the cost of the flood defence infrastructure system and the flooding hydraulic risk expressed by Expected Annual Damage (EAD). The decision variables of the multi-objective optimization problem are the size of defence system and the timing of implementation. The model accounts for the joint probability density functions of extreme rainfall, storm surge and sea level rise, as well as the damages, which are determined dynamically by the defence system state considering the probability and consequences of system failure, using a water depth–damage curve related to the land use (Corine Land Cover); water depth due to flooding are calculated by hydraulic model. A new dominant sorting genetic algorithm (NSGAII) is used to solve the multi-objective problem optimization. A case study is presented for the Pontina Plain (Lazio Italy), a coastal region, originally a swamp reclaimed about a hundred years ago, that is rich in urban centers and farms. A set of optimal adaptation policies, quantifying size and timing of flood defence constructions for different climate scenarios and belonging to the Pareto curve obtained by the NSGAII are identified for such a case study to mitigate the risk of flooding and to aid decision makers.
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6
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Cao Z, Yang W, Zhao Y, Guo X, Yin Z, Du C, Zhao H, Dai M. Diagnosis of CO 2 dynamics and fluxes in global coastal oceans. Natl Sci Rev 2020; 7:786-797. [PMID: 34692097 PMCID: PMC8288922 DOI: 10.1093/nsr/nwz105] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/27/2019] [Revised: 07/21/2019] [Accepted: 07/23/2019] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Global coastal oceans as a whole represent an important carbon sink but, due to high spatial–temporal variability, a mechanistic conceptualization of the coastal carbon cycle is still under development, hindering the modelling and inclusion of coastal carbon in Earth System Models. Although temperature is considered an important control of sea surface pCO2, we show that the latitudinal distribution of global coastal surface pCO2 does not match that of temperature, and its inter-seasonal changes are substantially regulated by non-thermal factors such as water mass mixing and net primary production. These processes operate in both ocean-dominated and river-dominated margins, with carbon and nutrients sourced from the open ocean and land, respectively. These can be conceptualized by a semi-analytical framework that assesses the consumption of dissolved inorganic carbon relative to nutrients, to determine how a coastal system is a CO2 source or sink. The framework also finds utility in accounting for additional nutrients in organic forms and testing hypotheses such as using Redfield stoichiometry, and is therefore an essential step toward comprehensively understanding and modelling the role of the coastal ocean in the global carbon cycle.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhimian Cao
- State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science and College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
| | - Wei Yang
- State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science and College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
| | - Yangyang Zhao
- State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science and College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
| | - Xianghui Guo
- State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science and College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
| | - Zhiqiang Yin
- State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science and College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
| | - Chuanjun Du
- State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science and College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
| | - Huade Zhao
- State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science and College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
| | - Minhan Dai
- State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science and College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
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7
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Changing Land-, Sea-, and Airscapes: Sources of Nutrient Pollution Affecting Habitat Suitability for Harmful Algae. ECOLOGICAL STUDIES 2018. [DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-70069-4_4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
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8
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Blanchard JL, Watson RA, Fulton EA, Cottrell RS, Nash KL, Bryndum-Buchholz A, Büchner M, Carozza DA, Cheung WWL, Elliott J, Davidson LNK, Dulvy NK, Dunne JP, Eddy TD, Galbraith E, Lotze HK, Maury O, Müller C, Tittensor DP, Jennings S. Linked sustainability challenges and trade-offs among fisheries, aquaculture and agriculture. Nat Ecol Evol 2017; 1:1240-1249. [PMID: 29046559 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-017-0258-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 124] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/27/2017] [Accepted: 06/28/2017] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
Fisheries and aquaculture make a crucial contribution to global food security, nutrition and livelihoods. However, the UN Sustainable Development Goals separate marine and terrestrial food production sectors and ecosystems. To sustainably meet increasing global demands for fish, the interlinkages among goals within and across fisheries, aquaculture and agriculture sectors must be recognized and addressed along with their changing nature. Here, we assess and highlight development challenges for fisheries-dependent countries based on analyses of interactions and trade-offs between goals focusing on food, biodiversity and climate change. We demonstrate that some countries are likely to face double jeopardies in both fisheries and agriculture sectors under climate change. The strategies to mitigate these risks will be context-dependent, and will need to directly address the trade-offs among Sustainable Development Goals, such as halting biodiversity loss and reducing poverty. Countries with low adaptive capacity but increasing demand for food require greater support and capacity building to transition towards reconciling trade-offs. Necessary actions are context-dependent and include effective governance, improved management and conservation, maximizing societal and environmental benefits from trade, increased equitability of distribution and innovation in food production, including continued development of low input and low impact aquaculture.
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Affiliation(s)
- Julia L Blanchard
- Institute for Marine & Antarctic Studies (IMAS), University of Tasmania, GPO Box 252-49, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia. .,Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, GPO Box 252-49, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia.
| | - Reg A Watson
- Institute for Marine & Antarctic Studies (IMAS), University of Tasmania, GPO Box 252-49, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia.,Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, GPO Box 252-49, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia
| | - Elizabeth A Fulton
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, GPO Box 252-49, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia.,CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia
| | - Richard S Cottrell
- Institute for Marine & Antarctic Studies (IMAS), University of Tasmania, GPO Box 252-49, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia.,Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, GPO Box 252-49, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia
| | - Kirsty L Nash
- Institute for Marine & Antarctic Studies (IMAS), University of Tasmania, GPO Box 252-49, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia.,Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, GPO Box 252-49, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia
| | | | - Matthias Büchner
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A31, 14473, Potsdam, Germany
| | - David A Carozza
- Department of Mathematics, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, Canada
| | - William W L Cheung
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, AERL, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Joshua Elliott
- University of Chicago Computation Institute, Chicago, IL, 60637, USA
| | - Lindsay N K Davidson
- Earth to Ocean Research Group, Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, BC, V5A 1S6, Canada
| | - Nicholas K Dulvy
- Earth to Ocean Research Group, Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, BC, V5A 1S6, Canada
| | - John P Dunne
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, 08540, USA
| | - Tyler D Eddy
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, PO Box 15000, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2, Canada.,Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, AERL, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Eric Galbraith
- Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA) and Department of Mathematics, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, 08193, Spain.,ICREA, Pg. Lluís Companys 23, 08010, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Heike K Lotze
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, PO Box 15000, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Olivier Maury
- IRD, UMR 248 MARBEC, Av Jean Monnet CS 30171, 34203, SETE cedex, France
| | - Christoph Müller
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A31, 14473, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Derek P Tittensor
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge, CB3 0DL, UK
| | - Simon Jennings
- Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Lowestoft Laboratory, Lowestoft, NR33 0HT, UK.,School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK.,International Council for the Exploration of the Sea, H.C. Andersens Blvd 44-46, 1553, København V, Denmark
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9
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Queirós AM, Huebert KB, Keyl F, Fernandes JA, Stolte W, Maar M, Kay S, Jones MC, Hamon KG, Hendriksen G, Vermard Y, Marchal P, Teal LR, Somerfield PJ, Austen MC, Barange M, Sell AF, Allen I, Peck MA. Solutions for ecosystem-level protection of ocean systems under climate change. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2016; 22:3927-3936. [PMID: 27396719 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13423] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2016] [Revised: 06/03/2016] [Accepted: 06/28/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
The Paris Conference of Parties (COP21) agreement renewed momentum for action against climate change, creating the space for solutions for conservation of the ocean addressing two of its largest threats: climate change and ocean acidification (CCOA). Recent arguments that ocean policies disregard a mature conservation research field and that protected areas cannot address climate change may be oversimplistic at this time when dynamic solutions for the management of changing oceans are needed. We propose a novel approach, based on spatial meta-analysis of climate impact models, to improve the positioning of marine protected areas to limit CCOA impacts. We do this by estimating the vulnerability of ocean ecosystems to CCOA in a spatially explicit manner and then co-mapping human activities such as the placement of renewable energy developments and the distribution of marine protected areas. We test this approach in the NE Atlantic considering also how CCOA impacts the base of the food web which supports protected species, an aspect often neglected in conservation studies. We found that, in this case, current regional conservation plans protect areas with low ecosystem-level vulnerability to CCOA, but disregard how species may redistribute to new, suitable and productive habitats. Under current plans, these areas remain open to commercial extraction and other uses. Here, and worldwide, ocean conservation strategies under CCOA must recognize the long-term importance of these habitat refuges, and studies such as this one are needed to identify them. Protecting these areas creates adaptive, climate-ready and ecosystem-level policy options for conservation, suitable for changing oceans.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ana M Queirós
- Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK
| | - Klaus B Huebert
- University of Hamburg, Olbersweg 24, Hamburg, 22767, Germany
- Horn Point Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, P.O. Box 775, Cambridge, MD, 21613, USA
| | - Friedemann Keyl
- Thünen Institute of Sea Fisheries, Palmaille 9, Hamburg, 22767, Germany
| | - Jose A Fernandes
- Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK
| | - Willem Stolte
- Deltares, Boussinesqweg 1, Delft, 2629 HV, The Netherlands
| | - Marie Maar
- Deltares, Boussinesqweg 1, Delft, 2629 HV, The Netherlands
- Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, PO Box 358, Roskilde, 4000, Denmark
| | - Susan Kay
- Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK
| | - Miranda C Jones
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EJ, UK
| | - Katell G Hamon
- LEI - Wageningen UR, Alexanderveld 5, The Hague, 2585 DB, The Netherlands
| | | | - Youen Vermard
- Département Ressources Biologiques et Environnement, Institut Français de Recherche Pour L'Exploitation de la Mer, Quai Gambetta BP 699, Boulogne-sur-Mer, 62321, France
| | - Paul Marchal
- Département Ressources Biologiques et Environnement, Institut Français de Recherche Pour L'Exploitation de la Mer, Quai Gambetta BP 699, Boulogne-sur-Mer, 62321, France
| | - Lorna R Teal
- IMARES, Haringkade 1, Ijmuiden, 1976CP, The Netherlands
| | | | - Melanie C Austen
- Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK
| | - Manuel Barange
- Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK
- Fisheries and Aquaculture Policy and Resources Division, Food and Agricultural Organization, Viale Delle Terme di Caracalla, Rome, 00153, Italy
| | - Anne F Sell
- Horn Point Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, P.O. Box 775, Cambridge, MD, 21613, USA
| | - Icarus Allen
- Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK
| | - Myron A Peck
- University of Hamburg, Olbersweg 24, Hamburg, 22767, Germany
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10
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Kay S, Caesar J, Wolf J, Bricheno L, Nicholls RJ, Saiful Islam AKM, Haque A, Pardaens A, Lowe JA. Modelling the increased frequency of extreme sea levels in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta due to sea level rise and other effects of climate change. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE. PROCESSES & IMPACTS 2015; 17:1311-22. [PMID: 26086045 DOI: 10.1039/c4em00683f] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/13/2023]
Abstract
Coastal flooding due to storm surge and high tides is a serious risk for inhabitants of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta, as much of the land is close to sea level. Climate change could lead to large areas of land being subject to increased flooding, salinization and ultimate abandonment in West Bengal, India, and Bangladesh. IPCC 5th assessment modelling of sea level rise and estimates of subsidence rates from the EU IMPACT2C project suggest that sea level in the GBM delta region may rise by 0.63 to 0.88 m by 2090, with some studies suggesting this could be up to 0.5 m higher if potential substantial melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet is included. These sea level rise scenarios lead to increased frequency of high water coastal events. Any effect of climate change on the frequency and severity of storms can also have an effect on extreme sea levels. A shelf-sea model of the Bay of Bengal has been used to investigate how the combined effect of sea level rise and changes in other environmental conditions under climate change may alter the frequency of extreme sea level events for the period 1971 to 2099. The model was forced using atmospheric and oceanic boundary conditions derived from climate model projections and the future scenario increase in sea level was applied at its ocean boundary. The model results show an increased likelihood of extreme sea level events through the 21st century, with the frequency of events increasing greatly in the second half of the century: water levels that occurred at decadal time intervals under present-day model conditions occurred in most years by the middle of the 21st century and 3-15 times per year by 2100. The heights of the most extreme events tend to increase more in the first half of the century than the second. The modelled scenarios provide a case study of how sea level rise and other effects of climate change may combine to produce a greatly increased threat to life and property in the GBM delta by the end of this century.
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Affiliation(s)
- S Kay
- Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, Plymouth PL1 3DH, UK.
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Glibert PM, Icarus Allen J, Artioli Y, Beusen A, Bouwman L, Harle J, Holmes R, Holt J. Vulnerability of coastal ecosystems to changes in harmful algal bloom distribution in response to climate change: projections based on model analysis. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2014; 20:3845-58. [PMID: 24942916 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12662] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/22/2013] [Revised: 06/04/2014] [Accepted: 06/06/2014] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
Harmful algal blooms (HABs), those proliferations of algae that can cause fish kills, contaminate seafood with toxins, form unsightly scums, or detrimentally alter ecosystem function have been increasing in frequency, magnitude, and duration worldwide. Here, using a global modeling approach, we show, for three regions of the globe, the potential effects of nutrient loading and climate change for two HAB genera, pelagic Prorocentrum and Karenia, each with differing physiological characteristics for growth. The projections (end of century, 2090-2100) are based on climate change resulting from the A1B scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Climate Model (IPCC, IPSL-CM4), applied in a coupled oceanographic-biogeochemical model, combined with a suite of assumed physiological 'rules' for genera-specific bloom development. Based on these models, an expansion in area and/or number of months annually conducive to development of these HABs along the NW European Shelf-Baltic Sea system and NE Asia was projected for both HAB genera, but no expansion (Prorocentrum spp.), or actual contraction in area and months conducive for blooms (Karenia spp.), was projected in the SE Asian domain. The implications of these projections, especially for Northern Europe, are shifts in vulnerability of coastal systems to HAB events, increased regional HAB impacts to aquaculture, increased risks to human health and ecosystems, and economic consequences of these events due to losses to fisheries and ecosystem services.
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Affiliation(s)
- Patricia M Glibert
- Horn Point Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, P.O. Box 775, Cambridge, MD, 21613, USA
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Blanchard JL, Jennings S, Holmes R, Harle J, Merino G, Allen JI, Holt J, Dulvy NK, Barange M. Potential consequences of climate change for primary production and fish production in large marine ecosystems. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2013; 367:2979-89. [PMID: 23007086 PMCID: PMC3479740 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2012.0231] [Citation(s) in RCA: 106] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Existing methods to predict the effects of climate change on the biomass and production of marine communities are predicated on modelling the interactions and dynamics of individual species, a very challenging approach when interactions and distributions are changing and little is known about the ecological mechanisms driving the responses of many species. An informative parallel approach is to develop size-based methods. These capture the properties of food webs that describe energy flux and production at a particular size, independent of species' ecology. We couple a physical–biogeochemical model with a dynamic, size-based food web model to predict the future effects of climate change on fish biomass and production in 11 large regional shelf seas, with and without fishing effects. Changes in potential fish production are shown to most strongly mirror changes in phytoplankton production. We project declines of 30–60% in potential fish production across some important areas of tropical shelf and upwelling seas, most notably in the eastern Indo-Pacific, the northern Humboldt and the North Canary Current. Conversely, in some areas of the high latitude shelf seas, the production of pelagic predators was projected to increase by 28–89%.
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Affiliation(s)
- Julia L Blanchard
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK.
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Gurney RJ, Badcock NS, Garnett EA, Godfray HCJ. The environmental eScience revolution. PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS. SERIES A, MATHEMATICAL, PHYSICAL, AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES 2009; 367:803-813. [PMID: 19087927 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2008.0253] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- R J Gurney
- ESSC, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6AL, UK
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Bretherton DA, Blower JD, Haines K, Smith GC. Running climate models on grids using G-Rex. PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS. SERIES A, MATHEMATICAL, PHYSICAL, AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES 2009; 367:847-853. [PMID: 19087943 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2008.0179] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Compute grids are used widely in many areas of environmental science, but there has been limited uptake of grid computing by the climate modelling community, partly because the characteristics of many climate models make them difficult to use with popular grid middleware systems. In particular, climate models usually produce large volumes of output data, and running them also involves complicated workflows implemented as shell scripts. A new grid middleware system that is well suited to climate modelling applications is presented in this paper. Grid Remote Execution (G-Rex) allows climate models to be deployed as Web services on remote computer systems and then launched and controlled as if they were running on the user's own computer. Output from the model is transferred back to the user while the run is in progress, to prevent it from accumulating on the remote system and to allow the user to monitor the model. G-Rex has a representational state transfer (REST) architectural style, featuring a Java client program that can easily be incorporated into existing scientific workflow scripts. Some technical details of G-Rex are presented, with examples of its use by climate modellers.
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Affiliation(s)
- D A Bretherton
- Reading e-Science Centre, Environmental Systems Science Centre, University of Reading, 3 Earley Gate, Reading RG6 6AL, UK.
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