Population biology of human onchocerciasis

Synthesizing environmental, epidemiological and vector and parasite genetic data to assist decision making for disease elimination

We present a framework for identifying when conditions are favourable for transmission of vector-borne diseases between communities by incorporating predicted disease prevalence mapping with landscape analysis of sociological, environmental and host/parasite genetic data. We explored the relationship between environmental features and gene flow of a filarial parasite of humans, Onchocerca volvulus, and its vector, blackflies in the genus Simulium. We generated a baseline microfilarial prevalence map from point estimates from 47 locations in the ecological transition separating the savannah and forest in Ghana, where transmission of O. volvulus persists despite onchocerciasis control efforts. We generated movement suitability maps based on environmental correlates with mitochondrial population structure of 164 parasites from 15 communities and 93 vectors from only four sampling sites, and compared these to the baseline prevalence map. Parasite genetic distance between sampling locations was significantly associated with elevation (r = .793, p = .005) and soil moisture (r = .507, p = .002), while vector genetic distance was associated with soil moisture (r = .788, p = .0417) and precipitation (r = .835, p = .0417). The correlation between baseline prevalence and parasite resistance surface maps was stronger than that between prevalence and vector resistance surface maps. The centre of the study area had high prevalence and suitability for parasite and vector gene flow, potentially contributing to persistent transmission and suggesting the importance of re-evaluating transmission zone boundaries. With suitably dense sampling, this framework can help delineate transmission zones for onchocerciasis and would be translatable to other vector-borne diseases.

Assessing Onchocerca volvulus Intensity of Infection and Genetic Diversity Using Mitochondrial Genome Sequencing of Single Microfilariae Obtained before and after Ivermectin Treatment

Onchocerciasis is a neglected tropical disease targeted for elimination using ivermectin mass administration. Ivermectin kills the microfilariae and temporarily arrests microfilariae production by the macrofilariae. We genotyped 436 microfilariae from 10 people each in Ituri, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and Maridi County, South Sudan, collected before and 4-5 months after ivermectin treatment. Population genetic analyses identified 52 and 103 mitochondrial DNA haplotypes among the microfilariae from DRC and South Sudan, respectively, with few haplotypes shared between people. The percentage of genotype-based correct assignment to person within DRC was ~88% and within South Sudan ~64%. Rarefaction and extrapolation analysis showed that the genetic diversity in DRC, and even more so in South Sudan, was captured incompletely. The results indicate that the per-person adult worm burden is likely higher in South Sudan than DRC. Analyses of haplotype data from a subsample (n = 4) did not discriminate genetically between pre- and post-treatment microfilariae, confirming that post-treatment microfilariae are not the result of new infections. With appropriate sampling, mitochondrial haplotype analysis could help monitor changes in the number of macrofilariae in a population as a result of treatment, identify cases of potential treatment failure, and detect new infections as an indicator of continuing transmission.

Persistence of onchocerciasis in villages in Enugu and Ogun states in Nigeria following many rounds of mass distribution of ivermectin

Background

Onchocerciasis is endemic in most local government areas (LGAs) in Enugu and Ogun states. Most meso- and hyper-endemic LGAs have received many rounds of ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA). This study aimed to determine the current prevalence of onchocerciasis in villages in Enugu and Ogun states that were formerly highly endemic and to assess progress toward elimination of the infection in areas believed to be at high risk for persistence.

Methods

Cross-sectional community surveys were conducted 8 to 12 months after the last round of MDA in 16 villages (6 in Enugu state and 10 in Ogun state) in individuals aged ≥ 18 years. Study participants were examined for the presence of palpable subcutaneous nodules. Skin snips from the posterior iliac crests were used to assess microfiladermia (Mf) prevalence and density.

Results

643 subjects were palpated for nodules and 627 individuals (225 in Enugu state; 402 in Ogun state) provided skin snips. Nodule prevalence in the study villages ranged from 42 to 66.7% in Enugu state and from 0 to 25.0% in Ogun state. Mf prevalence in the Enugu and Ogun study villages ranged from 32 to 51.1% and 0 to 28.6%, respectively. Geometric mean skin Mf density in surveyed Enugu state villages ranged between 1 and 3.1 Mf/mg; these values were < 1 Mf/mg in all but one community in Ogun state villages.

Conclusion

Results from this study show that onchocerciasis persists in adults in many villages in Enugu and Ogun states despite many prior rounds of ivermectin MDA. Prevalence was higher in villages surveyed in Enugu than in Ogun. Low Mf densities suggest the MDA program is working well to reduce disease, but more time will be required to reach the elimination goal.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07811-7.

Relationship between skin snip and Ov16 ELISA: Two diagnostic tools for onchocerciasis in a focus in Cameroon after two decades of ivermectin-based preventive chemotherapy

Background

Onchocerciasis elimination currently relies on repeated ivermectin-based preventive chemotherapy. Current World Health Organization’s guidelines strongly recommend, though with low evidence of certainty, the use of Ov16 serology testing in children younger than 10 years old to assess whether mass drugs administration can be safely stopped. Therefore, more evidences are needed to support the use of this marker as sero-evaluation tool. This study aimed at determining the relationship between microfilaridermia and anti-Ov16 IgG4, and their variation according to age, gender and ivermectin intake history.

Methodology

A cross-sectional survey was conducted in an area where ivermectin-based MDA has been implemented since more than 20 years. A questionnaire was used to record ivermectin intake history for the last 5 years. All volunteers aged ≥2 years were tested for microfilaridermia. IgG4 antibodies against Ov16 antigen were determined using the Standard Diagnostic Ov16 IgG4 ELISA kits and the recombinant anti-Ov16 AbD19432 antibodies. Prevalences, microfilaridermia counts and IgG4 concentrations were compared with regards to age, gender and history of ivermectin intake.

Principal findings

The prevalence of skin microfilariae was 23.4% (95% CI: 23.4–30.8), whereas Ov16 seroprevalence was 53.2% (95% CI: 47.9–58.4). A moderate positive percentage agreement (50.4%) and a high negative percentage agreement (69.2%) was found between skin snip and Ov16 serology in the whole population, while in children aged <10 years, the agreements were higher (positive percentage agreement: 62.6%; negative percentage agreement: 83.5%). In addition, no associations were found between ivermectin intake, Mf counts and estimated IgG4 concentration of participants. Anti-Ov16 IgG4 were higher in individuals harboring microfilariae than their negative counterparts (p<0.0001), though a negative correlation was found between skin microfilarial counts and anti-Ov16 IgG4 levels (r = -0.2400; p = 0.03). No variation in microfilarial counts according to age and gender was observed. Though positively correlated with age (r = 0.4020; p<0.0001), IgG4 was significantly different between the different age classes (p<0.0001).

Conclusion/Significance

Our results revealed moderate positive and negative agreements between parasitological and immunological parameters of onchocerciasis infection after several rounds MDA. Anti-Ov16 IgG4 levels increased with age but decreased with microfilarial counts, suggesting a variation of anti-Ov16 IgG4 as a result of constant exposure and accumulation of infection. This brings evidence sustaining the use of Ov16 serology in children as evaluation tool. However, additional investigations are needed to further reshape the appropriate age range among children aged <10 years old.

The elimination of onchocerciasis places high demands on monitoring and evaluation. The current WHO’s guidelines recommend the use of serological test (ELISA) to determine the presence of IgG4 antibodies to the O. volvulus specific antigen Ov16 among children aged <10 years old, thought with low evidence of certainty. In this paper, we explored the relationship between anti-Ov16 IgG4 antibodies and microfilaridermia counts, and assessed their variation according to age, gender and history of ivermectin intake. Our findings revealed no variation of Mf count and IgG4 with ivermectin intake. However, we observed that anti-Ov16 IgG4 decrease with microfilaridermia counts, but an increasing trend was observed with age. This brings evidence sustaining the use of Ov16 serology testing as exposition marker in children younger than 10 years. However, children age 2 to 4 years seem to have a very low anti-Ov16 IgG4 concentration, this finding should be considered when defining the age class for seroprevalence evaluation.

Reducing onchocerciasis-associated morbidity in onchocerciasis-endemic foci with high ongoing transmission: a focus on the children

Efforts are being directed toward the elimination of onchocerciasis transmission in endemic areas with community-directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI) in Africa, which greatly reduces onchocerciasis-associated disease. However, onchocerciasis remains a major public health problem in areas of South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Cameroon, and the Central African Republic. Strengthening onchocerciasis elimination efforts in areas with a high prevalence of disease burden is crucial to decrease transmission, morbidity, and mortality. We argue that clinical trials are needed to investigate the safety and efficacy of ivermectin treatment of Onchocerca volvulus-infected pregnant women and children younger than 5 years. Crucially, 6-monthly administration of ivermectin in school-age children at risk of onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy could be achieved by supplementing annual CDTI with an extra round of ivermectin treatment during Child Health Days in schools and/or other distribution sites every year. These strategies would help achieve the elimination of onchocerciasis and its associated disease burden.

First description of Onchocerca flexuosa infections in Danish red deer (Cervus elaphus)

The prevalence of Onchocerca infection in wild cervids from Denmark was studied in 119 fallow deer (Dama dama), 123 red deer (Cervus elaphus), 51 roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) and eight sika deer (Cervus Nippon) shot during the hunting season from October 2017 to January 2018 from 18 geographical locations across Denmark. The carcasses were macroscopic checked for nodules, and skin samples were examined for microfilaria. All roe deer, fallow deer and sika deer were negative for Onchocerca, while 30.9% red deer were positive for either microfilaria, nodules or both. Significantly more adult red deer (50.8%; 37.6-62.4; p < 0.0001) were infected with Onchocerca than juveniles <1 year (7.8%; 2.1-18.5), while there was an insignificant (p = 0.075) difference in prevalence observed between males (17.4%; 7.8-31.4) and females (41.7%; 30.2-53.9). Onchocerca-positive red deer were observed from 91.7% (11/12) of the sampled geographical locations. Species identification was done on adult worms from nodules taken from the lumbar region of 20 red deer of different geographical origin by sequencing the mitochondrial 12S, 16S and nad5 gene fragments. The sequences matched with previously published sequences for Onchocerca flexuosa. The high prevalence of Onchocerca infection caused by O. flexuosa in red deer in Denmark shows that Denmark has favourable vector conditions and a suitable environment for the maintenance of the parasite. To our knowledge, this is the first systematic study of Onchocerca in wild-living cervids in Denmark.

Bacteriome Diversity of Blackflies' Gut and Association with Onchocerca volvulus, the Causative Agent of Onchocerciasis in Mbam Valley (Center Region, Cameroon)

Vector control using larvicides is the main alternative strategy to address limits of preventive chemotherapy using ivermectin for the control of onchocerciasis. However, it remains substantially limited by implementation difficulties, ecological concerns and the resistance of vector populations. Therefore, efficient and environmentally safe alternative control strategies are still needed. This study explores the composition of the blackfly bacteriome and its variability in the presence of Onchocerca volvulus infection, in order to determine their potential as a novel vector control-based approach to fight onchocerciasis. An entomological survey of a collection of samples was performed in the Bafia health district, a historical endemic focus for onchocerciasis in Cameroon. A total of 1270 blackflies were dissected and the infection rate was 10.1%, indicative of ongoing transmission of onchocerciasis in the surveyed communities. Sequencing process of blackflies’ gut DNA for bacteria screening revealed 14 phyla and 123 genera, highlighting the diversity of gut blackflies bacterial communities. Eight bacteria formed the core of blackfly bacteriome and Wolbachia was the predominant genus with 73.4% of relative abundance of blackflies’ gut bacterial communities. Acidomonas and Roseanomas genera were significantly abundant among infected blackflies (p = 0.01), whereas other genera such as Brevibacterium and Fructobacillus were associated with the absence of infection (p = 0.0009). Differences in gut bacterial distribution of blackflies according to their infection status by the parasite suggest a causal relationship between the bacteriome composition and the onset of blackflies’ infection by O. volvulus or vice versa. Blackfly native bacteria are then potentially involved in infection by O. volvulus, either by facilitating or preventing the parasite infestation of the vector. These bacteria represent an interesting potential as a biological tool/target for a novel approach of vector control to fight onchocerciasis.

Serological Evaluation of Onchocerciasis and Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination in the Bakoye and Falémé Foci, Mali

Background

Ivermectin-based onchocerciasis elimination, reported in 2009–2012, for Bakoye and Falémé, Mali, supported policy-shifting from morbidity control to elimination of transmission (EOT). These foci are coendemic with lymphatic filariasis (LF). In 2007–2016 mass ivermectin plus albendazole administration was implemented. We report Ov16 (onchocerciasis) and Wb123 (LF) seroprevalence after 24–25 years of treatment to determine if onchocerciasis EOT and LF elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) have been achieved.

Methods

The SD Bioline Onchocerciasis/LF Ig[immunoglobulin]G4 biplex rapid diagnostic test (RDT) was used in 2186 children aged 3–10 years in 13 villages (plus 2 hamlets) in Bakoye and in 2270 children in 15 villages (plus 1 hamlet) in Falémé. In Bakoye, all-age serosurveys were conducted in 3 historically hyperendemic villages (1867 individuals aged 3 -78 years).

Results

In Bakoye, IgG4 seropositivity was 0.27% (95% confidence interval [CI] = .13%–.60%) for both Ov16 and Wb123 antigens. In Falémé, Ov16 and Wb123 seroprevalence was 0.04% (95% CI = .01%–.25%) and 0.09% (95% CI = .02%–.32%), respectively. Ov16-seropositive children were from historically meso/hyperendemic villages. Ov16 positivity was <2% in ≤14 year-olds, and 16% in ≥40 year-olds. Wb123 seropositivity was <2% in ≤39 year-olds, reaching 3% in ≥40 year-olds.

Conclusions

Notwithstanding uncertainty in the biplex RDT sensitivity, Ov16 and Wb123 seroprevalence among children in Bakoye and Falémé is consistent with EOT (onchocerciasis) and EPHP (LF) since stopping treatment in 2016. The few Ov16-seropositive children should be skin-snip polymerase chain reaction tested and followed up.

Differential susceptibility of Onchocerca volvulus microfilaria to ivermectin in two areas of contrasting history of mass drug administration in Cameroon: relevance of microscopy and molecular techniques for the monitoring of skin microfilarial repopulation within six months of direct observed treatment

Background

Ivermectin is an excellent microfilaricide against Onchocerca volvulus. However, in some regions, long term use of ivermectin has resulted in sub-optimal responses to the treatment. More data to properly document the phenomenon in various contexts of ivermectin mass drug administration (IVM-MDA) is needed. Also, there is a need to accurately monitor a possible repopulation of skin by microfilariae following treatment. Skin snip microscopy is known to have a low sensitivity in individuals with light infections, which can be the case following treatment. This study was designed with two complementary objectives: (i) to assess the susceptibility of O. volvulus microfilariae to ivermectin in two areas undergoing IVM-MDA for different lengths of time, and (ii) to document the repopulation of skin by the O. volvulus microfilariae following treatment, using 3 independent diagnostic techniques.

Method

Identified microfilaridermic individuals were treated with ivermectin and re-examined after 1, 3, and 6 months using microscopy, actin real-time PCR (actin-qPCR) and O-150 LAMP assays. Susceptibility to ivermectin and trends in detecting reappearance of skin microfilariae were determined using three techniques. Microscopy was used as an imperfect gold standard to determine the performance of actin-qPCR and LAMP.

Results

In Bafia with over 20 years of IVM-MDA, 11/51 (21.6%) direct observe treated microfilaridemic participants were still positive for skin microfilariae after 1 month. In Melong, with 10 years of IVM-MDA, 2/29 (6.9%) treated participants were still positive. The microfilarial density reduction per skin biopsy within one month following treatment was significantly lower in participants from Bafia.

In both study sites, the molecular techniques detected higher proportions of infected individuals than microscopy at all monitoring time points. LAMP demonstrated the highest levels of sensitivity and real-time PCR was found to have the highest specificity.

Conclusion

Patterns in skin mirofilariae clearance and repopulation were established. O. volvulus worms from Bafia with higher number of annual MDA displayed a lower clearance and higher repopulation rate after treatment with ivermectin. Molecular assays displayed higher sensitivity in monitoring O. volvulus microfilaridemia within six months following treatment.

Designing antifilarial drug trials using clinical trial simulators

Lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis are neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) targeted for elimination by mass (antifilarial) drug administration. These drugs are predominantly active against the microfilarial progeny of adult worms. New drugs or combinations are needed to improve patient therapy and to enhance the effectiveness of interventions in persistent hotspots of transmission. Several therapies and regimens are currently in (pre-)clinical testing. Clinical trial simulators (CTSs) project patient outcomes to inform the design of clinical trials but have not been widely applied to NTDs, where their resource-saving payoffs could be highly beneficial. We demonstrate the utility of CTSs using our individual-based onchocerciasis transmission model (EPIONCHO-IBM) that projects trial outcomes of a hypothetical macrofilaricidal drug. We identify key design decisions that influence the power of clinical trials, including participant eligibility criteria and post-treatment follow-up times for measuring infection indicators. We discuss how CTSs help to inform target product profiles.

Drugs for filariases are under development and clinical trial simulators could help to inform the design of clinical trials. Here, Walker et al. use an individual-based onchocerciasis transmission model to project trial outcomes of a hypothetical macrofilaricidal drug, resolving key design choices.

Data-driven modelling and spatial complexity supports heterogeneity-based integrative management for eliminating Simulium neavei-transmitted river blindness

Concern is emerging regarding the challenges posed by spatial complexity for modelling and managing the area-wide elimination of parasitic infections. While this has led to calls for applying heterogeneity-based approaches for addressing this complexity, questions related to spatial scale, the discovery of locally-relevant models, and its interaction with options for interrupting parasite transmission remain to be resolved. We used a data-driven modelling framework applied to infection data gathered from different monitoring sites to investigate these questions in the context of understanding the transmission dynamics and efforts to eliminate Simulium neavei- transmitted onchocerciasis, a macroparasitic disease that causes river blindness in Western Uganda and other regions of Africa. We demonstrate that our Bayesian-based data-model assimilation technique is able to discover onchocerciasis models that reflect local transmission conditions reliably. Key management variables such as infection breakpoints and required durations of drug interventions for achieving elimination varied spatially due to site-specific parameter constraining; however, this spatial effect was found to operate at the larger focus level, although intriguingly including vector control overcame this variability. These results show that data-driven modelling based on spatial datasets and model-data fusing methodologies will be critical to identifying both the scale-dependent models and heterogeneity-based options required for supporting the successful elimination of S. neavei-borne onchocerciasis.

A general method for multiscale modelling of vector-borne disease systems

The inability to develop multiscale models which can describe vector-borne disease systems in terms of the complete pathogen life cycle which represents multiple targets for control has hindered progress in our efforts to control, eliminate and even eradicate these multi-host infections. This is because it is currently not easy to determine precisely where and how in the life cycles of vector-borne disease systems the key constrains which are regarded as crucial in regulating pathogen population dynamics in both the vertebrate host and vector host operate. In this article, we present a general method for development of multiscale models of vector-borne disease systems which integrate the within-host and between-host scales for the two hosts (a vertebrate host and a vector host) that are implicated in vector-borne disease dynamics. The general multiscale modelling method is an extension of our previous work on multiscale models of infectious disease systems which established a basic science and accompanying theory of how pathogen population dynamics at within-host scale scales up to between-host scale and in turn how it scales down from between-host scale to within-host scale. Further, the general method is applied to multiscale modelling of human onchocerciasis-a vector-borne disease system which is sometimes called river blindness as a case study.

Modelling exposure heterogeneity and density dependence in onchocerciasis using a novel individual-based transmission model, EPIONCHO-IBM: Implications for elimination and data needs

BACKGROUND

Density dependence in helminth establishment and heterogeneity in exposure to infection are known to drive resilience to interventions based on mass drug administration (MDA). However, the interaction between these processes is poorly understood. We developed a novel individual-based model for onchocerciasis transmission, EPIONCHO-IBM, which accounts for both processes. We fit the model to pre-intervention epidemiological data and explore parasite dynamics during MDA with ivermectin.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Density dependence and heterogeneity in exposure to blackfly (vector) bites were estimated by fitting the model to matched pre-intervention microfilarial prevalence, microfilarial intensity and vector biting rate data from savannah areas of Cameroon and Côte d'Ivoire/Burkina Faso using Latin hypercube sampling. Transmission dynamics during 25 years of annual and biannual ivermectin MDA were investigated. Density dependence in parasite establishment within humans was estimated for different levels of (fixed) exposure heterogeneity to understand how parametric uncertainty may influence treatment dynamics. Stronger overdispersion in exposure to blackfly bites results in the estimation of stronger density-dependent parasite establishment within humans, consequently increasing resilience to MDA. For all levels of exposure heterogeneity tested, the model predicts a departure from the functional forms for density dependence assumed in the deterministic version of the model.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This is the first, stochastic model of onchocerciasis, that accounts for and estimates density-dependent parasite establishment in humans alongside exposure heterogeneity. Capturing the interaction between these processes is fundamental to our understanding of resilience to MDA interventions. Given that uncertainty in these processes results in very different treatment dynamics, collecting data on exposure heterogeneity would be essential for improving model predictions during MDA. We discuss possible ways in which such data may be collected as well as the importance of better understanding the effects of immunological responses on establishing parasites prior to and during ivermectin treatment.

Onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy: another piece in the puzzle from the Mahenge mountains, southern Tanzania

In a study from the onchocerciasis-endemic area of Mahenge in southern Tanzania, Mmbando et al. [Inf Dis Poverty. 2018;7:64] demonstrate that in four selected villages the overall epilepsy prevalence was high, and significantly more elevated in the two villages of higher onchocerciasis endemicity compared to those of lower endemicity. This is replicating earlier findings from many other areas of tropical Africa. The authors are also providing data indicating that in the Mahenge focus, the prevalence of nodding syndrome may be related to that of onchocerciasis in the same way as epilepsy in general. The application of a clinical case definition for onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy (OAE) as used in the study of Mmbando et al. [Inf Dis Poverty. 2018;7:64] faces some difficulties; indeed, its precision in discerning cases of OAE from epilepsy due to other etiologies is not known, and it does not allow for a specific diagnosis in the individual patient. Because an operational surveillance tool for assessing the number of patients in the population could mean substantial advance for better estimating the burden of OAE, the proposed definition should be tried in different settings and its performance reviewed in the process.

Substantiating freedom from parasitic infection by combining transmission model predictions with disease surveys

Stopping interventions is a critical decision for parasite elimination programmes. Quantifying the probability that elimination has occurred due to interventions can be facilitated by combining infection status information from parasitological surveys with extinction thresholds predicted by parasite transmission models. Here we demonstrate how the integrated use of these two pieces of information derived from infection monitoring data can be used to develop an analytic framework for guiding the making of defensible decisions to stop interventions. We present a computational tool to perform these probability calculations and demonstrate its practical utility for supporting intervention cessation decisions by applying the framework to infection data from programmes aiming to eliminate onchocerciasis and lymphatic filariasis in Uganda and Nigeria, respectively. We highlight a possible method for validating the results in the field, and discuss further refinements and extensions required to deploy this predictive tool for guiding decision making by programme managers.

The decision when to stop an intervention is a critical component of parasite elimination programmes, but reliance on surveillance data alone can be inaccurate. Here, Michael et al. combine parasite transmission model predictions with disease survey data to more reliably determine when interventions can be stopped.

Modelling the elimination of river blindness using long-term epidemiological and programmatic data from Mali and Senegal

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Onchocerciasis is earmarked for elimination in some African countries by 2020/2025.

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15+ years of ivermectin treatment drove infection prevalence to zero in areas of Mali & Senegal.

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Data-driven model projections are used to evaluate the risk of infection resurgence.

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Latent infections can initiate slow resurgence in communities with high transmission propensity.

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Highly sensitive and long-term surveillance will be necessary to verify elimination.

The onchocerciasis transmission models EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM have been independently developed and used to explore the feasibility of eliminating onchocerciasis from Africa with mass (annual or biannual) distribution of ivermectin within the timeframes proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO) and endorsed by the 2012 London Declaration on Neglected Tropical Diseases (i.e. by 2020/2025). Based on the findings of our previous model comparison, we implemented technical refinements and tested the projections of EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM against long-term epidemiological data from two West African transmission foci in Mali and Senegal where the observed prevalence of infection was brought to zero circa 2007–2009 after 15–17 years of mass ivermectin treatment. We simulated these interventions using programmatic information on the frequency and coverage of mass treatments and trained the model projections using longitudinal parasitological data from 27 communities, evaluating the projected outcome of elimination (local parasite extinction) or resurgence. We found that EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM captured adequately the epidemiological trends during mass treatment but that resurgence, while never predicted by ONCHOSIM, was predicted by EPIONCHO in some communities with the highest (inferred) vector biting rates and associated pre-intervention endemicities. Resurgence can be extremely protracted such that low (microfilarial) prevalence between 1% and 5% can be maintained for 3–5 years before manifesting more prominently. We highlight that post-treatment and post-elimination surveillance protocols must be implemented for long enough and with high enough sensitivity to detect possible residual latent infections potentially indicative of resurgence. We also discuss uncertainty and differences between EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM projections, the potential importance of vector control in high-transmission settings as a complementary intervention strategy, and the short remaining timeline for African countries to be ready to stop treatment safely and begin surveillance in order to meet the impending 2020/2025 elimination targets.

How Can Onchocerciasis Elimination in Africa Be Accelerated? Modeling the Impact of Increased Ivermectin Treatment Frequency and Complementary Vector Control

Background

Great strides have been made toward onchocerciasis elimination by mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. Focusing on MDA-eligible areas, we investigated where the elimination goal can be achieved by 2025 by continuation of current practice (annual MDA with ivermectin) and where intensification or additional vector control is required. We did not consider areas hypoendemic for onchocerciasis with loiasis coendemicity where MDA is contraindicated.

Methods

We used 2 previously published mathematical models, ONCHOSIM and EPIONCHO, to simulate future trends in microfilarial prevalence for 80 different settings (defined by precontrol endemicity and past MDA frequency and coverage) under different future treatment scenarios (annual, biannual, or quarterly MDA with different treatment coverage through 2025, with or without vector control strategies), assessing for each strategy whether it eventually leads to elimination.

Results

Areas with 40%-50% precontrol microfilarial prevalence and ≥10 years of annual MDA may achieve elimination with a further 7 years of annual MDA, if not achieved already, according to both models. For most areas with 70%-80% precontrol prevalence, ONCHOSIM predicts that either annual or biannual MDA is sufficient to achieve elimination by 2025, whereas EPIONCHO predicts that elimination will not be achieved even with complementary vector control.

Conclusions

Whether elimination will be reached by 2025 depends on precontrol endemicity, control history, and strategies chosen from now until 2025. Biannual or quarterly MDA will accelerate progress toward elimination but cannot guarantee it by 2025 in high-endemicity areas. Long-term concomitant MDA and vector control for high-endemicity areas might be useful.

Modelling the impact of larviciding on the population dynamics and biting rates of Simulium damnosum (s.l.): implications for vector control as a complementary strategy for onchocerciasis elimination in Africa

BACKGROUND

In 2012, the World Health Organization set goals for the elimination of onchocerciasis transmission by 2020 in selected African countries. Epidemiological data and mathematical modelling have indicated that elimination may not be achieved with annual ivermectin distribution in all endemic foci. Complementary and alternative treatment strategies (ATS), including vector control, will be necessary. Implementation of vector control will require that the ecology and population dynamics of Simulium damnosum (sensu lato) be carefully considered.

METHODS

We adapted our previous SIMuliid POPulation dynamics (SIMPOP) model to explore the impact of larvicidal insecticides on S. damnosum (s.l.) biting rates in different ecological contexts and to identify how frequently and for how long vector control should be continued to sustain substantive reductions in vector biting. SIMPOP was fitted to data from large-scale aerial larviciding trials in savannah sites (Ghana) and small-scale ground larviciding trials in forest areas (Cameroon). The model was validated against independent data from Burkina Faso/Côte d'Ivoire (savannah) and Bioko (forest). Scenario analysis explored the effects of ecological and programmatic factors such as pre-control daily biting rate (DBR) and larviciding scheme design on reductions and resurgences in biting rates.

RESULTS

The estimated efficacy of large-scale aerial larviciding in the savannah was greater than that of ground-based larviciding in the forest. Small changes in larvicidal efficacy can have large impacts on intervention success. At 93% larvicidal efficacy (a realistic value based on field trials), 10 consecutive weekly larvicidal treatments would reduce DBRs by 96% (e.g. from 400 to 16 bites/person/day). At 70% efficacy, and for 10 weekly applications, the DBR would decrease by 67% (e.g. from 400 to 132 bites/person/day). Larviciding is more likely to succeed in areas with lower water temperatures and where blackfly species have longer gonotrophic cycles.

CONCLUSIONS

Focal vector control can reduce vector biting rates in settings where a high larvicidal efficacy can be achieved and an appropriate duration and frequency of larviciding can be ensured. Future work linking SIMPOP with onchocerciasis transmission models will permit evaluation of the impact of combined anti-vectorial and anti-parasitic interventions on accelerating elimination of the disease.

Scaling for Dynamical Systems in Biology

Asymptotic methods can greatly simplify the analysis of all but the simplest mathematical models and should therefore be commonplace in such biological areas as ecology and epidemiology. One essential difficulty that limits their use is that they can only be applied to a suitably scaled dimensionless version of the original dimensional model. Many books discuss nondimensionalization, but with little attention given to the problem of choosing the right scales and dimensionless parameters. In this paper, we illustrate the value of using asymptotics on a properly scaled dimensionless model, develop a set of guidelines that can be used to make good scaling choices, and offer advice for teaching these topics in differential equations or mathematical biology courses.

Measuring and modelling the effects of systematic non-adherence to mass drug administration

It is well understood that the success or failure of a mass drug administration campaign critically depends on the level of coverage achieved. To that end coverage levels are often closely scrutinised during campaigns and the response to underperforming campaigns is to attempt to improve coverage. Modelling work has indicated, however, that the quality of the coverage achieved may also have a significant impact on the outcome. If the coverage achieved is likely to miss similar people every round then this can have a serious detrimental effect on the campaign outcome. We begin by reviewing the current modelling descriptions of this effect and introduce a new modelling framework that can be used to simulate a given level of systematic non-adherence. We formalise the likelihood that people may miss several rounds of treatment using the correlation in the attendance of different rounds. Using two very simplified models of the infection of helminths and non-helminths, respectively, we demonstrate that the modelling description used and the correlation included between treatment rounds can have a profound effect on the time to elimination of disease in a population. It is therefore clear that more detailed coverage data is required to accurately predict the time to disease elimination. We review published coverage data in which individuals are asked how many previous rounds they have attended, and show how this information may be used to assess the level of systematic non-adherence. We note that while the coverages in the data found range from 40.5% to 95.5%, still the correlations found lie in a fairly narrow range (between 0.2806 and 0.5351). This indicates that the level of systematic non-adherence may be similar even in data from different years, countries, diseases and administered drugs.

Onchocerciasis transmission in Ghana: the human blood index of sibling species of the Simulium damnosum complex

Background

Vector-biting behaviour is important for vector-borne disease (VBD) epidemiology. The proportion of blood meals taken on humans (the human blood index, HBI), is a component of the biting rate per vector on humans in VBD transmission models. Humans are the definitive host of Onchocerca volvulus, but the simuliid vectors feed on a range of animals and HBI is a key indicator of the potential for human onchocerciasis transmission. Ghana has a diversity of Simulium damnosum complex members, which are likely to vary in their HBIs, an important consideration for parameterization of onchocerciasis control and elimination models.

Methods

Host-seeking and ovipositing S. damnosum (sensu lato) (s.l.) were collected from seven villages in four Ghanaian regions. Taxa were morphologically and molecularly identified. Blood meals from individually stored blackfly abdomens were used for DNA profiling, to identify previous host choice. Household, domestic animal, wild mammal and bird surveys were performed to estimate the density and diversity of potential blood hosts of blackflies.

Results

A total of 11,107 abdomens of simuliid females (which would have obtained blood meal(s) previously) were tested, with blood meals successfully amplified in 3,772 (34 %). A single-host species was identified in 2,857 (75.7 %) of the blood meals, of which 2,162 (75.7 %) were human. Simulium soubrense Beffa form, S. squamosum C and S. sanctipauli Pra form were the most anthropophagic (HBI = 0.92, 0.86 and 0.70, respectively); S. squamosum E, S. yahense and S. damnosum (sensu stricto) (s.s.)/S. sirbanum were the most zoophagic (HBI = 0.44, 0.53 and 0.63, respectively). The degree of anthropophagy decreased (but not statistically significantly) with increasing ratio of non-human/human blood hosts. Vector to human ratios ranged from 139 to 1,198 blackflies/person.

Conclusions

DNA profiling can successfully identify blood meals from host-seeking and ovipositing blackflies. Host choice varies according to sibling species, season and capture site/method. There was no evidence that HBI is vector and/or host density dependent. Transmission breakpoints will vary among locations due to differing cytospecies compositions and vector abundances.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-016-1703-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Modelling Neglected Tropical Diseases diagnostics: the sensitivity of skin snips for Onchocerca volvulus in near elimination and surveillance settings

BACKGROUND

The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control has proposed provisional thresholds for the prevalence of microfilariae in humans and of L3 larvae in blackflies, below which mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin can be stopped and surveillance started. Skin snips are currently the gold standard test for detecting patent Onchocerca volvulus infection, and the World Health Organization recommends their use to monitor progress of treatment programmes (but not to verify elimination). However, if they are used (in transition and in parallel to Ov-16 serology), sampling protocols should be designed to demonstrate that programmatic goals have been reached. The sensitivity of skin snips is key to the design of such protocols.

METHODS

We develop a mathematical model for the number of microfilariae in a skin snip and parameterise it using data from Guatemala, Venezuela, Ghana and Cameroon collected before the start of ivermectin treatment programmes. We use the model to estimate sensitivity as a function of time since last treatment, number of snips taken, microfilarial aggregation and female worm fertility after exposure to 10 annual rounds of ivermectin treatment.

RESULTS

The sensitivity of the skin snip method increases with time after treatment, with most of the increase occurring between 0 and 5 years. One year after the last treatment, the sensitivity of two skin snips taken from an individual infected with a single fertile female worm is 31 % if there is no permanent effect of multiple ivermectin treatments on fertility; 18 % if there is a 7 % reduction per treatment, and 0.6 % if there is a 35 % reduction. At 5 years, the corresponding sensitivities are 76 %, 62 % and 4.7 %. The sensitivity improves significantly if 4 skin snips are taken: in the absence of a permanent effect of ivermectin, the sensitivity of 4 skin snips is 53 % 1 year and 94 % 5 years after the last treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model supports the timelines proposed by APOC for post-MDA follow-up and surveillance surveys every 3-5 years. Two skin snips from the iliac region have reasonable sensitivity to detect residual infection, but the sensitivity can be significantly improved by taking 4 snips. The costs and benefits of using four versus two snips should be evaluated.

River Blindness: Mathematical Models for Control and Elimination

Human onchocerciasis (river blindness) is one of the few neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) whose control strategies have been informed by mathematical modelling. With the change in focus from elimination of the disease burden to elimination of Onchocerca volvulus, much remains to be done to refine, calibrate and validate existing models. Under the impetus of the NTD Modelling Consortium, the teams that developed EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM have joined forces to compare and improve these frameworks to better assist ongoing elimination efforts. We review their current versions and describe how they are being used to address two key questions: (1) where can onchocerciasis be eliminated with current intervention strategies by 2020/2025? and (2) what alternative/complementary strategies could help to accelerate elimination where (1) cannot be achieved? The control and elimination of onchocerciasis from the African continent is at a crucial crossroad. The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control closed at the end of 2015, and although a new platform for support and integration of NTD control has been launched, the disease will have to compete with a myriad of other national health priorities at a pivotal time in the road to elimination. However, never before had onchocerciasis control a better arsenal of intervention strategies as well as diagnostics. It is, therefore, timely to present two models of different geneses and modelling traditions as they come together to produce robust decision-support tools. We start by describing the structural and parametric assumptions of EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM; we continue by summarizing the modelling of current treatment strategies with annual (or biannual) mass ivermectin distribution and introduce a number of alternative strategies, including other microfilaricidal therapies (such as moxidectin), macrofilaricidal (anti-wolbachial) treatments, focal vector control and the possibility of an onchocerciasis vaccine. We conclude by discussing challenges, opportunities and future directions.

Potential effects of warmer worms and vectors on onchocerciasis transmission in West Africa

Development times of eggs, larvae and pupae of vectors of onchocerciasis (Simulium spp.) and of Onchocerca volvulus larvae within the adult females of the vectors decrease with increasing temperature. At and above 25°C, the parasite could reach its infective stage in less than 7 days when vectors could transmit after only two gonotrophic cycles. After incorporating exponential functions for vector development into a novel blackfly population model, it was predicted that fly numbers in Liberia and Ghana would peak at air temperatures of 29°C and 34°C, about 3°C and 7°C above current monthly averages, respectively; parous rates of forest flies (Liberia) would peak at 29°C and of savannah flies (Ghana) at 30°C. Small temperature increases (less than 2°C) might lead to changes in geographical distributions of different vector taxa. When the new model was linked to an existing framework for the population dynamics of onchocerciasis in humans and vectors, transmission rates and worm loads were projected to increase with temperature to at least 33°C. By contrast, analyses of field data on forest flies in Liberia and savannah flies in Ghana, in relation to regional climate change predictions, suggested, on the basis of simple regressions, that 13–41% decreases in fly numbers would be expected between the present and before 2040. Further research is needed to reconcile these conflicting conclusions.

Required duration of mass ivermectin treatment for onchocerciasis elimination in Africa: a comparative modelling analysis

Background

The World Health Organization (WHO) has set ambitious targets for the elimination of onchocerciasis by 2020–2025 through mass ivermectin treatment. Two different mathematical models have assessed the feasibility of reaching this goal for different settings and treatment scenarios, namely the individual-based microsimulation model ONCHOSIM and the population-based deterministic model EPIONCHO. In this study, we harmonize some crucial assumptions and compare model predictions on common outputs.

Methods

Using a range of initial endemicity levels and treatment scenarios, we compared the models with respect to the following outcomes: 1) model-predicted trends in microfilarial (mf) prevalence and mean mf intensity during 25 years of (annual or biannual) mass ivermectin treatment; 2) treatment duration needed to bring mf prevalence below a provisional operational threshold for treatment interruption (pOTTIS, i.e. 1.4 %), and 3) treatment duration needed to drive the parasite population to local elimination, even in the absence of further interventions. Local elimination was judged by stochastic fade-out in ONCHOSIM and by reaching transmission breakpoints in EPIONCHO.

Results

ONCHOSIM and EPIONCHO both predicted that in mesoendemic areas the pOTTIS can be reached with annual treatment, but that this strategy may be insufficient in very highly hyperendemic areas or would require prolonged continuation of treatment. For the lower endemicity levels explored, ONCHOSIM predicted that the time needed to reach the pOTTIS is longer than that needed to drive the parasite population to elimination, whereas for the higher endemicity levels the opposite was true. In EPIONCHO, the pOTTIS was reached consistently sooner than the breakpoint.

Conclusions

The operational thresholds proposed by APOC may have to be adjusted to adequately reflect differences in pre-control endemicities. Further comparative modelling work will be conducted to better understand the main causes of differences in model-predicted trends. This is a pre-requisite for guiding elimination programmes in Africa and refining operational criteria for stopping mass treatment.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1159-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Human Onchocerciasis: Modelling the Potential Long-term Consequences of a Vaccination Programme

Background

Currently, the predominant onchocerciasis control strategy in Africa is annual mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin. However, there is a consensus among the global health community, supported by mathematical modelling, that onchocerciasis in Africa will not be eliminated within proposed time frameworks in all endemic foci with only annual MDA, and novel and alternative strategies are urgently needed. Furthermore, use of MDA with ivermectin is already compromised in large areas of central Africa co-endemic with Loa loa, and there are areas where suboptimal or atypical responses to ivermectin have been documented. An onchocerciasis vaccine would be highly advantageous in these areas.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used a previously developed onchocerciasis transmission model (EPIONCHO) to investigate the impact of vaccination in areas where loiasis and onchocerciasis are co-endemic and ivermectin is contraindicated. We also explore the potential influence of a vaccination programme on infection resurgence in areas where local elimination has been successfully achieved. Based on the age range included in the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI), the vaccine was assumed to target 1 to 5 year olds. Our modelling results indicate that the deployment of an onchocerciasis vaccine would have a beneficial impact in onchocerciasis–loiasis co-endemic areas, markedly reducing microfilarial load in the young (under 20 yr) age groups.

Conclusions/Significance

An onchocerciasis prophylactic vaccine would reduce the onchocerciasis disease burden in populations where ivermectin cannot be administered safely. Moreover, a vaccine could substantially decrease the chance of re-emergence of Onchocerca volvulus infection in areas where it is deemed that MDA with ivermectin can be stopped. Therefore, a vaccine would protect the substantial investments made by present and past onchocerciasis control programmes, decreasing the chance of disease recrudescence and offering an important additional tool to mitigate the potentially devastating impact of emerging ivermectin resistance.

Novel and alternative strategies are required to meet the demanding control and elimination (of infection) goals for human onchocerciasis (river blindness) in Africa. Due to the overlapping distribution of onchocerciasis and loiasis (African eye worm) in forested areas of central Africa, millions of people living in such areas are not well served by current interventions because they cannot safely receive the antiparasitic drug ivermectin that is distributed en masse to treat onchocerciasis elsewhere in Africa. The Onchocerciasis Vaccine for Africa—TOVA—Initiative has been established to develop and trial an onchocerciasis vaccine. We model the potential impact of a hypothetical childhood vaccination programme rolled out in areas where co-endemicity of onchocerciasis and African eye worm makes mass distribution of ivermectin difficult and potentially unsafe for treating, controlling and eliminating river blindness. We find that, 15 years into the programme, a vaccine would substantially reduce infection levels in children and young adults, protecting them from the morbidity and mortality associated with onchocerciasis. Most benefit would be reaped from a long-lived vaccine, even if only partially protective. We also discuss how a vaccine could substantially reduce the risk of re-emergence of onchocerciasis in areas freed from infection after years of successful intervention.

Onchocerciasis transmission in Ghana: persistence under different control strategies and the role of the simuliid vectors

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) aims at eliminating onchocerciasis by 2020 in selected African countries. Current control focuses on community-directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI). In Ghana, persistent transmission has been reported despite long-term control. We present spatial and temporal patterns of onchocerciasis transmission in relation to ivermectin treatment history.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Host-seeking and ovipositing blackflies were collected from seven villages in four regions of Ghana with 3-24 years of CDTI at the time of sampling. A total of 16,443 flies was analysed for infection; 5,812 (35.3%) were dissected for parity (26.9% parous). Heads and thoraces of 12,196 flies were dissected for Onchocerca spp. and DNA from 11,122 abdomens was amplified using Onchocerca primers. A total of 463 larvae (0.03 larvae/fly) from 97 (0.6%) infected and 62 (0.4%) infective flies was recorded; 258 abdomens (2.3%) were positive for Onchocerca DNA. Infections (all were O. volvulus) were more likely to be detected in ovipositing flies. Transmission occurred, mostly in the wet season, at Gyankobaa and Bosomase, with transmission potentials of, respectively, 86 and 422 L3/person/month after 3 and 6 years of CDTI. The numbers of L3/1,000 parous flies at these villages were over 100 times the WHO threshold of one L3/1,000 for transmission control. Vector species influenced transmission parameters. At Asubende, the number of L3/1,000 ovipositing flies (1.4, 95% CI = 0-4) also just exceeded the threshold despite extensive vector control and 24 years of ivermectin distribution, but there were no infective larvae in host-seeking flies.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Despite repeated ivermectin treatment, evidence of O. volvulus transmission was documented in all seven villages and above the WHO threshold in two. Vector species influences transmission through biting and parous rates and vector competence, and should be included in transmission models. Oviposition traps could augment vector collector methods for monitoring and surveillance.

The Allee effect and elimination of neglected tropical diseases: a mathematical modelling study

Elimination and control programmes for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are underway around the world, yet they are generally informed by epidemiological modelling only to a rudimentary degree. Chief among the modelling-derived predictors of disease emergence or controllability is the basic reproduction number R0. The ecological systems of several of the NTDs include density-dependent processes--which alter the rate of e.g. parasite establishment or fecundity--that complicate the calculation of R0. Here we show how the forms of the density-dependent functions for a model of the NTD lymphatic filariasis affect the effective reproduction number Reff. We construct infection transmission models containing various density-dependent functions and show how they alter the shape of the Reff profile, affecting two important epidemiological outcome variables that relate to elimination and control programmes: the parasite transmission breakpoint (or extinction threshold) and the reproduction fitness, as measured by Reff. The current drive to control, eliminate or eradicate several parasitic infections would be substantially aided by the existence of ecological Allee effects. For these control programmes, the findings of this paper are encouraging, since a single positive density dependency (DD) can introduce a reasonable chance of achieving elimination; however, there are diminishing returns to additional positive DDs.

Onchocerciasis transmission in Ghana: biting and parous rates of host-seeking sibling species of the Simulium damnosum complex

Background

Ghana is renowned for its sibling species diversity of the Simulium damnosum complex, vectors of Onchocerca volvulus. Detailed entomological knowledge becomes a priority as onchocerciasis control policy has shifted from morbidity reduction to elimination of infection. To date, understanding of transmission dynamics of O. volvulus has been mainly based on S. damnosum sensu stricto (s.s.) data. We aim to elucidate bionomic features of vector species of importance for onchocerciasis elimination efforts.

Methods

We collected S. damnosum sensu lato from seven villages in four Ghanaian regions between 2009 and 2011, using standard vector collection, and human- and cattle-baited tents. Taxa were identified using morphological and molecular techniques. Monthly biting rates (MBR), parous rates and monthly parous biting rates (MPBR) are reported by locality, season, trapping method and hour of collection for each species.

Results

S. damnosum s.s./S. sirbanum were collected at Asubende and Agborlekame, both savannah villages. A range of species was caught in the Volta region (forest-savannah mosaic) and Gyankobaa (forest), with S. squamosum or S. sanctipauli being the predominant species, respectively. In Bosomase (southern forest region) only S. sanctipauli was collected in the 2009 wet season, but in the 2010 dry season S. yahense was also caught. MBRs ranged from 714 bites/person/month at Agborlekame (100% S. damnosum s.s./S. sirbanum) to 8,586 bites/person/month at Pillar 83/Djodji (98.5% S. squamosum). MBRs were higher in the wet season. In contrast, parous rates were higher in the dry season (41.8% vs. 18.4%), resulting in higher MPBRs in the dry season. Daily host-seeking activity of S. damnosum s.s./S. sirbanum was bimodal, whilst S. squamosum and S. sanctipauli had unimodal afternoon peaks.

Conclusions

The bionomic differences between sibling species of the S. damnosum complex need to be taken into account when designing entomological monitoring protocols for interventions and parameterising mathematical models for onchocerciasis control and elimination.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-014-0511-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Modelling the impact of ivermectin on River Blindness and its burden of morbidity and mortality in African Savannah: EpiOncho projections

Background

The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) has refocused its goals on the elimination of infection where possible, seemingly achievable by 15–17 years of annual mass distribution of ivermectin in some African foci. Previously, APOC had focused on the elimination of onchocerciasis as a public health problem. Timeframes have been set by the World Health Organization, the London Declaration on Neglected Tropical Diseases and the World Bank to achieve these goals by 2020–2025.

Methods

A novel mathematical model of the dynamics of onchocercal disease is presented which links documented associations between Onchocerca volvulus infection and the prevalence and incidence of morbidity and mortality to model outputs from our host age- and sex-structured onchocerciasis transmission framework (EpiOncho). The model is calibrated for African savannah settings, and used to assess the impact of long-term annual mass administration of ivermectin on infection and ocular and skin disease and to explore how this depends on epidemiological and programmatic variables.

Results

Current onchocerciasis disease projections, which do not account for excess mortality of sighted individuals with heavy microfilarial loads, underestimate disease burden. Long-term annual ivermectin treatment is highly effective at reducing both the morbidity and mortality associated with onchocerciasis, and this result is not greatly influenced by treatment coverage and compliance. By contrast, impact on microfilarial prevalence and intensity is highly dependent on baseline endemicity, treatment coverage and systematic non-compliance.

Conclusions

The goals of eliminating morbidity and infection with ivermectin alone are distinctly influenced by epidemiological and programmatic factors. Whilst the former goal is most certainly achievable, reaching the latter will strongly depend on initial endemicity (the higher the endemicity, the greater the magnitude of inter-treatment transmission), advising caution when generalising the applicability of successful elimination outcomes to other areas. The proportion of systematic non-compliers will become far more influential in terms of overall success in achieving elimination goals.

Effect of moxidectin on CYP3A4 activity as evaluated by oral midazolam pharmacokinetics in healthy subjects

In order to evaluate the potential for CYP3A4 induction by moxidectin, midazolam pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters were compared before and after moxidectin administration. Healthy subjects received a single 8 mg dose of moxidectin and 3 single 7.5 mg doses of midazolam 3 days before, and 7 and 89 days after the moxidectin. Blood samples were taken for 24 hours to measure midazolam and metabolites in plasma, and for 89 days to measure moxidectin in plasma after dose administration. Noncompartmental PK analyses were performed for each analyte. Analysis of variance was performed on log-transformed midazolam parameters with treatment day as a fixed effect. Adverse events were recorded and laboratory tests, physical examinations, pulse oximetry monitoring, vital sign measurement, and electrocardiograms performed. Thirty-nine subjects were enrolled in the study; PK data were available for 37 subjects. Moxidectin PK parameters were similar to previous studies. There were no significant changes in PK for midazolam or its metabolites 7 or 89 days after moxidectin administration. Adverse events were generally mild and there were no relevant changes in safety assessments. Thus, 8 mg moxidectin does not induce CYP3A4 activity and other CYP3A4 substrates are unlikely to be affected by moxidectin co-administration.

Uncertainty surrounding projections of the long-term impact of ivermectin treatment on human onchocerciasis

Background

Recent studies in Mali, Nigeria, and Senegal have indicated that annual (or biannual) ivermectin distribution may lead to local elimination of human onchocerciasis in certain African foci. Modelling-based projections have been used to estimate the required duration of ivermectin distribution to reach elimination. A crucial assumption has been that microfilarial production by Onchocerca volvulus is reduced irreversibly by 30–35% with each (annual) ivermectin round. However, other modelling-based analyses suggest that ivermectin may not have such a cumulative effect. Uncertainty in this (biological) and other (programmatic) assumptions would affect projected outcomes of long-term ivermectin treatment.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We modify a deterministic age- and sex-structured onchocerciasis transmission model, parameterised for savannah O. volvulus–Simulium damnosum, to explore the impact of assumptions regarding the effect of ivermectin on worm fertility and the patterns of treatment coverage compliance, and frequency on projections of parasitological outcomes due to long-term, mass ivermectin administration in hyperendemic areas. The projected impact of ivermectin distribution on onchocerciasis and the benefits of switching from annual to biannual distribution are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the drug's effect on worm fertility and on treatment compliance. If ivermectin does not have a cumulative impact on microfilarial production, elimination of onchocerciasis in hyperendemic areas may not be feasible with annual ivermectin distribution.

Conclusions/Significance

There is substantial (biological and programmatic) uncertainty surrounding modelling projections of onchocerciasis elimination. These uncertainties need to be acknowledged for mathematical models to inform control policy reliably. Further research is needed to elucidate the effect of ivermectin on O. volvulus reproductive biology and quantify the patterns of coverage and compliance in treated communities.

Studies in Mali, Nigeria, and Senegal suggest that, in some settings, it is possible to eliminate onchocerciasis after 15–17 years of ivermectin distribution. Computer models have been used to estimate the required duration of ivermectin distribution to reach elimination. Some models assume that annual ivermectin treatment reduces the fertility of the causing parasite, Onchocerca volvulus, by 30–35% each time the drug is taken. Other analyses suggest that ivermectin may not have such an effect. We explore how assumptions regarding: a) treatment effects on microfilarial production by female worms (fertility), b) proportion of people who receive the drug (coverage), c) proportion of people who adhere to treatment (compliance), and d) whether people are treated once or twice per year (frequency) affect temporal projections of infection load and prevalence in highly endemic African savannah settings. We find that if treatment does not affect parasite fertility cumulatively, elimination of onchocerciasis in highly endemic areas of Africa may not be feasible with annual ivermectin distribution alone. If two areas have equal coverage but dissimilar compliance, they may experience very different infection load, prevalence and persistence trends. Projections such as these are crucial to help onchocerciasis control programmes to plan elimination strategies effectively.

Case-control studies on the relationship between onchocerciasis and epilepsy: systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

A systematic review and meta-analysis of all available case-control studies on the relationship between onchocerciasis and epilepsy. Because age and level of onchocerciasis endemicity in the area of residence are major determinants for infection, an additional analysis was performed, restricted to studies achieving control of these confounding factors.

DATA SOURCES

Medical databases, the "African Neurology Database, Institute of Neuroepidemiology and Tropical Neurology, Limoges," reference lists of relevant articles, commercial search engines, up to May 2012.

METHODS

We searched for studies examining infection status with Onchocerca volvulus in persons with epilepsy (PWE) and without epilepsy (PWOE) providing data suitable for the calculation of pooled odds ratios (ORp) and/or standardized mean differences (SMD) using random-effects models.

RESULTS

Eleven studies providing data of qualitative skin biopsies for diagnosis of onchocerciasis were identified. Combined analysis on the total sample of 876 PWE and 4712 PWOE resulted in an ORp of 2.49 (95% confidence interval (95%CI): 1.61-3.86, p<0.001). When this analysis was restricted to those studies achieving control for age, residence and sex (367 PWE, 624 PWOE), an ORp of 1.29 (95% CI: 0.93-1.79; p = 0.139) was found. Presence of nodules for diagnosis of onchocerciasis was analyzed in four studies (225 PWE, 189 PWOE; ORp 1.74; 95%CI: 0.94-3.20; p<0.076), including two studies of the restricted analysis (106 PWE, 106 PWOE; ORp 2.81; 95%CI: 1.57-5.00; p<0.001). One study examined quantitative microfilariae counts in patients without preceding microfilaricidal treatment and demonstrated significantly higher counts in PWE than in PWOE.

INTERPRETATION

Our results strengthen the hypothesis that, in onchocerciasis foci, epilepsy and infection with O. volvulus are associated. Analysis of indicators giving information on infection intensity, namely nodule palpation and quantitative microfilaria count in untreated patients, support the hypothesis that intensity of infection with O. volvulus is involved in the etiology of epilepsy.

Time series analysis of onchocerciasis data from Mexico: a trend towards elimination

BACKGROUND

In Latin America, there are 13 geographically isolated endemic foci distributed among Mexico, Guatemala, Colombia, Venezuela, Brazil and Ecuador. The communities of the three endemic foci found within Mexico have been receiving ivermectin treatment since 1989. In this study, we predicted the trend of occurrence of cases in Mexico by applying time series analysis to monthly onchocerciasis data reported by the Mexican Secretariat of Health between 1988 and 2011 using the software R.

RESULTS

A total of 15,584 cases were reported in Mexico from 1988 to 2011. The data of onchocerciasis cases are mainly from the main endemic foci of Chiapas and Oaxaca. The last case in Oaxaca was reported in 1998, but new cases were reported in the Chiapas foci up to 2011. Time series analysis performed for the foci in Mexico showed a decreasing trend of the disease over time. The best-fitted models with the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) were Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, which were used to predict the tendency of onchocerciasis cases for two years ahead. According to the ARIMA models predictions, the cases in very low number (below 1) are expected for the disease between 2012 and 2013 in Chiapas, the last endemic region in Mexico.

CONCLUSION

The endemic regions of Mexico evolved from high onchocerciasis-endemic states to the interruption of transmission due to the strategies followed by the MSH, based on treatment with ivermectin. The extremely low level of expected cases as predicted by ARIMA models for the next two years suggest that the onchocerciasis is being eliminated in Mexico. To our knowledge, it is the first study utilizing time series for predicting case dynamics of onchocerciasis, which could be used as a benchmark during monitoring and post-treatment surveillance.

Assessment and monitoring of onchocerciasis in Latin America

Onchocerciasis has historically been one of the leading causes of infectious blindness worldwide. It is endemic to tropical regions both in Africa and Latin America and in the Yemen. In Latin America, it is found in 13 foci located in 6 different countries. The epidemiologically most important focus of onchocerciasis in the Americas is located in a region spanning the border between Guatemala and Mexico. However, the Amazonian focus straddling the border of Venezuela and Brazil is larger in overall area because the Yanomami populations are scattered over a very large geographical region. Onchocerciasis is caused by infection with the filarial parasite Onchocerca volvulus. The infection is spread through the bites of an insect vector, black flies of the genus Simulium. In Africa, the major vectors are members of the S. damnosum complex, while numerous species serve as vectors of the parasite in Latin America. Latin America has had a long history of attempts to control onchocerciasis, stretching back almost 100 years. The earliest programmes used a strategy of surgical removal of the adult parasites from affected individuals. However, because many of the adult parasites lodge in undetectable and inaccessible areas of the body, the overall effect of this strategy on the prevalence of infection was relatively minor. In 1988, a new drug, ivermectin, was introduced that effectively killed the larval stage (microfilaria) of the parasite in infected humans. As the microfilaria is both the stage that is transmitted by the vector fly and the cause of most of the pathologies associated with the infection, ivermectin opened up a new strategy for the control of onchocerciasis. Concurrent with the use of ivermectin for the treatment of onchocerciasis, a number of sensitive new diagnostic tools were developed (both serological and nucleic acid based) that provided the efficiency, sensitivity and specificity necessary to monitor the decline and eventual elimination of onchocerciasis as a result of successful control. As a result of these advances, a strategy for the elimination of onchocerciasis was developed, based upon mass distribution of ivermectin to afflicted communities for periods lasting long enough to ensure that the parasite population was placed on the road to local elimination. This strategy has been applied for the past decade to the foci in Latin America by a programme overseen by the Onchocerciasis Elimination Program for the Americas (OEPA). The efforts spearheaded by OEPA have been very successful, eliminating ocular disease caused by O. volvulus, and eliminating and interrupting transmission of the parasite in 8 of the 13 foci in the region. As onchocerciasis approaches elimination in Latin America, several questions still need to be addressed. These include defining an acceptable upper limit for transmission in areas in which transmission is thought to have been suppressed (e.g. what is the maximum value for the upper bound of the 95% confidence interval for transmission rates in areas where transmission is no longer detectable), how to develop strategies for conducting surveillance for recrudescence of infection in areas in which transmission is thought to be interrupted and how to address the problem in areas where the mass distribution of ivermectin seems to be unable to completely eliminate the infection.

The effect of a high-fat breakfast on the pharmacokinetics of moxidectin in healthy male subjects: a randomized phase I trial

The objective of this study was to assess the effect of a high-fat meal on the pharmacokinetics of moxidectin. Healthy male subjects were randomized to receive single oral 8 mg doses of moxidectin after an overnight fast or high-fat breakfast. In fasted subjects (N = 27), mean [SD] parameters were C(max): 58.9 [12.5] ng/mL; t(max): 3.7 [1.5] h; area under concentration-time curve (AUC): 3,387 [1,328] ng/h/mL; Vλ(z)/F: 2,829 [1,267] L; CL/F: 2.76 [1.28] L/h; and t(1/2): 784 [347] h. Compared with fasted subjects, fed subjects (N = 27) exhibited a 34% increase in C(max), delay in t(max) to 5.3 [2.1] h, 44% increase in AUC, 40% decrease in Vλ(z)/F, and a 35% decrease in CL/F. There was no significant change in t(1/2). The changes are consistent with an increase in moxidectin bioavailability following administration with food. There were no clinically relevant changes in vital signs, laboratory tests, or electrocardiograms.

Elimination of human onchocerciasis: history of progress and current feasibility using ivermectin (Mectizan(®)) monotherapy

We review and analyze approaches over a 65 year period that have proven successful for onchocerciasis control in several different epidemiological settings. These include vector control with the goal of transmission interruption versus the use of mass drug administration using ivermectin (Mectizan(®)) monotherapy. Ivermectin has proven exceedingly effective because it is highly efficacious against Onchocerca volvulus microfilariae, the etiological agent of onchocercal skin and ocular disease and the infective stage for the vector. For these reasons, the drug was donated by the Merck Company for regional control programs in Africa and the Americas. Recurrent treatment with ivermectin at semi-annual intervals also impacts adult worms and result in loss of fecundity and increased mortality. Using a strategy of 6-monthly treatments with high coverage rates, the Onchocerciasis Elimination Program for the Americas has interrupted transmission in seven of the thirteen foci in the Americas and is on track to eliminate onchocerciasis in the region by 2015. Treatments given annually or semi-annually for 15-17 years in three hyperendemic onchocerciasis foci in Mali and Senegal also have resulted in a few infections in the human population with transmission levels below thresholds postulated for elimination. Follow-up evaluations did not detect any recrudescence of infection or transmission, suggesting that onchocerciasis elimination could be feasible with Mectizan(®) treatment in some endemic foci in Africa.

Epidemiology and control of onchocerciasis: the threshold biting rate of savannah onchocerciasis in Africa

Control of onchocerciasis currently focuses on community-directed treatment with the microfilaricide ivermectin which effectively kills Onchocerca volvulus microfilariae in the human host. The feasibility of elimination by this control strategy has recently been reported for some foci in Africa which has rekindled discussions on evaluating the threshold conditions of elimination of onchocerciasis. We developed a stochastic model based on a master equation which predicts, based on data from West and Central Africa, that elimination of savannah onchocerciasis can be expected around a threshold biting rate of 730 bites per person per year, ranging region-specifically roughly from 230 to 2300 bites per person and year. The threshold values give rise to optimism that elimination of onchocerciasis is feasible, but the associated measures of parasite prevalence and density suggest that onchocerciasis can remain endemic at very low infection intensities. Endemicity at a low level is a risk factor for elimination strategies, and we point to the necessity of investigating these issues on the basis of breakpoints which refer to threshold conditions based on parasite prevalence and density.

Identifying sub-optimal responses to ivermectin in the treatment of River Blindness

Identification of drug resistance before it becomes a public health concern requires a clear distinction between what constitutes a normal and a suboptimal treatment response. A novel method of analyzing drug efficacy studies in human helminthiases is proposed and used to investigate recent claims of atypical responses to ivermectin in the treatment of River Blindness. The variability in the rate at which Onchocerca volvulus microfilariae repopulate host's skin following ivermectin treatment is quantified using an individual-based onchocerciasis mathematical model. The model estimates a single skin repopulation rate for every host sampled, allowing reports of suboptimal responses to be statistically compared with responses from populations with no prior exposure to ivermectin. Statistically faster rates of skin repopulation were observed in 3 Ghanaian villages (treated 12-17 times), despite the wide variability in repopulation rates observed in ivermectin-naïve populations. Another village previously thought to have high rates of skin repopulation was shown to be indistinguishable from the normal treatment response. The model is used to generate testable hypotheses to identify whether atypical rates of skin repopulation by microfilariae could result from low treatment coverage alone or provide evidence of decreased ivermectin efficacy. Further work linking phenotypic poor responses to treatment with parasite molecular genetics markers will be required to confirm drug resistance. Limitations of the skin-snipping method for estimating parasite load indicates that changes in the distribution of microfilarial repopulation rates, rather than their absolute values, maybe a more sensitive indicator of emerging ivermectin resistance.

Epilepsy in onchocerciasis endemic areas: systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based surveys

Objective

We sought to evaluate the relationship between onchocerciasis prevalence and that of epilepsy using available data collected at community level.

Design

We conducted a systematic review and meta-regression of available data.

Data Sources

Electronic and paper records on subject area ever produced up to February 2008.

Review Methods

We searched for population-based studies reporting on the prevalence of epilepsy in communities for which onchocerciasis prevalence was available or could be estimated. Two authors independently assessed eligibility and study quality and extracted data. The estimation of point prevalence of onchocerciasis was standardized across studies using appropriate correction factors. Variation in epilepsy prevalence was then analyzed as a function of onchocerciasis endemicity using random-effect logistic models.

Results

Eight studies from west (Benin and Nigeria), central (Cameroon and Central African Republic) and east Africa (Uganda, Tanzania and Burundi) met the criteria for inclusion and analysis. Ninety-one communities with a total population of 79,270 individuals screened for epilepsy were included in the analysis. The prevalence of epilepsy ranged from 0 to 8.7% whereas that of onchocerciasis ranged from 5.2 to 100%. Variation in epilepsy prevalence was consistent with a logistic function of onchocerciasis prevalence, with epilepsy prevalence being increased, on average, by 0.4% for each 10% increase in onchocerciasis prevalence.

Conclusion

These results give further evidence that onchocerciasis is associated with epilepsy and that the disease burden of onchocerciasis might have to be re-estimated by taking into account this relationship.

Epilepsy is particularly common in tropical areas. One main reason is that many endemic infections have neurological consequences. In addition, the medical, social and demographic burden of epilepsy remains substantial in these countries where it is often seen as a contagious condition and where the aetiology is often undetermined. For several decades, field researchers had reported some overlapping between the geographical distributions of epilepsy and onchocerciasis, a parasitic disease caused by the filarial worm Onchocerca volvulus which afflicts some 40 million persons worldwide. Here, we conducted a statistical analysis of all the data available on the relationship between the two conditions to determine whether the proportion of people suffering from epilepsy in a community could be related to the frequency of onchocerciasis. The combined results of the eight studies carried out in west, central and east Africa indicate a close epidemiological association between the two diseases. Should a causative relationship be demonstrated, onchocerciasis, which is known as “river blindness” because of its most serious sequela and the distribution of its vectors, could thus also be called “river epilepsy”. More research is needed to determine the mechanisms explaining this association and to assess the burden of onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy.

Laser-assisted microdissection for the study of the ecology of parasites in their hosts

The population biology of internal parasites is difficult to study because the adult parasites are often inaccessible, deep within the host's body. Developing stages, such as eggs in the faeces or larvae in the skin are more easily obtained, but are difficult to handle because they are often very small and with a tough cuticle. This has limited their use in molecular ecology for estimating population biology parameters of the adults (their parents). We have used Onchocerca ochengi (a filarial nematode parasite of cattle) to describe a novel and generally applicable method of easily and conveniently isolating individual larvae (microfilariae) from the host using laser-assisted microdissection. Furthermore, we have been able to improve the isolation of DNA by using the laser to bisect the larva to release DNA from the tissues enclosed within the parasite cuticle, and in this way we have achieved amplification of fragments over 1400 bp, and routinely PCR-amplified single-copy sequences from 5% of the DNA from a single larva (the equivalent of approximately 15 nuclei), and regularly from 0.5%.

Rates of microfilarial production by Onchocerca volvulus are not cumulatively reduced by multiple ivermectin treatments

Regular distribution of ivermectin reduces onchocerciasis transmission and morbidity by killing, within humans, the microfilarial stage of the parasite (microfilaricidal effect). In addition, ivermectin exerts a so-called embryostatic effect by which microfilarial production by the adult female worm becomes suppressed during a number of weeks after treatment. To assess the overall effect of ivermectin on onchocerciasis transmission and evaluate the likelihood of local elimination of the infection it is important to estimate the magnitude of the anti-fertility effect over the course of a treatment programme. Estimates of the effect of repeated drug treatments on the production of microfilariae by adult Onchocerca volvulus were obtained by developing a model that was fitted to data collected from three hyperendemic communities in Guatemala, where eligible residents received ivermectin twice per year for two and a half years. The data consist of microfilarial load measurements in the skin, collected just before each six-monthly treatment during the programme. The model that is developed describes the dynamics of an individual host's expected microfilarial load over the 30-month study period. We adopt a Bayesian approach and use Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) techniques to fit the model to the data. Combining estimates from the three villages, average microfilarial production in the first six months post-treatment was reduced by ~64% of its pre-treatment level, regardless of values chosen for the pre-ivermectin fertility rate within plausible ranges. Increased adult worm death rate after treatment (to mimic removal of macrofilariae via nodulectomy during the programme) resulted in a smaller estimated magnitude of the embryostatic effect (rate of microfilarial production was reduced by ~58% of pre-ivermectin value). After subsequent treatments, the rate of microfilarial production appeared to be similarly decreased. The data and analyses therefore do not support the hypothesis of a cumulative effect of multiple ivermectin treatments on microfilarial production by female worms.

The predicted impact of immunosuppression upon population age-intensity profiles for schistosomiasis

The slow development of acquired immunity is thought to be responsible for the characteristic convex age-intensity curve seen in human schistosome infection, which peaks earlier in more heavily infected populations (this is described as a peak shift). Schistosomes are able to suppress protective host responses, and it is hypothesized that this suppression is responsible for the delayed development of protective responses. A deterministic mathematical model is used to describe levels of infection and immunity in an endemic population, incorporating protective immune responses which either reduce adult worm burden or reduce superinfection. Suppression, related to current worm burden, is also included and acts against one or both protective responses. If suppression acts against the entire protective response, it is able to delay the development of protective immunity, and the peak shift is predicted to be reversed at higher infection intensities, with removal of the peaks altogether at the highest levels of infection and/or suppression. If only the anti-adult worm protective immune response is vulnerable to suppression, while the anti-reinfection response remains intact, then suppression does not remove the peak in the age-intensity curve. These findings are discussed in the light of existing field and experimental data.

Density dependence and the spread of anthelmintic resistance

Variation in the strength of selection pressures acting upon different subpopulations may cause density-dependent regulatory processes to act differentially on particular genotypes and may influence the rate of selection of adaptive traits. Using host-helminth parasite systems as examples, we investigate the impact of different positive and negative density dependence on the potential spread of anthelmintic resistance. Following chemotherapy, the negative density-dependent processes restricting parasite population growth will be relaxed, increasing the genetic contribution of resistant parasites to the next generation. Simple deterministic models of directly transmitted nematodes that merge population dynamics and genetics show that the frequency of drug-resistant alleles may increase faster in species whose population size is down-regulated by density-dependent parasite fecundity than in species with density-dependent establishment or parasite mortality. A genetically structured population dynamics model of an indirectly transmitted nematode is used to highlight how population regulation will influence the resistance allele frequency in different parasite lifestages. Results indicate that surveys aimed at monitoring the evolution of drug resistance should consider carefully which life stage to sample, and the time following treatment samples should be collected. Anthelmintic resistance offers a good opportunity to apply fundamental evolutionary and ecological principles to the management of a potentially crucial public health problem.

Vector competence for Onchocerca volvulus in the Simulium (Notolepria) exiguum complex: cytoforms or density-dependence?

Although Simulium exiguum Roubaud s.l. is present in all South American onchocerciasis foci, it is a significant vector only in Colombia and Ecuador. This variable vectorial role has been attributed to sibling forms that differ in their ability to allow Onchocerca volvulus larval development and their preferred bloodmeal hosts. Here we evaluate the relationship between parasite availability in human skin and infective larval output measured as (a) number of L3 larvae and (b) proportion of surviving flies with L3s in the Cayapa form of S. exiguum s.l. from Ecuador, taking into account the variation in counts of microfilariae (mf) from 6skin snips/patient. Comparisons with other cytoforms (Aguarico, Bucay and Quevedo, absent in the main Ecuadorean onchocerciasis foci) are made to suggest the relative roles of intrinsic susceptibility or co-adaptation versus density-dependent parasite uptake. A nonlinear (limitation) relationship, characterised by an initial rapid increase in infective larvae with increasing mf skin density was confirmed for the Cayapa cytoform. The proportion of infective Cayapa flies increased and saturated rapidly (reaching 80% for >/= 20mf/mg skin). After adjusting for density dependence, non-Cayapa cytoforms exhibited significantly lower L3 loads and proportions of infective flies for a given mf skin density than Cayapa flies, indicating that the susceptibility of those cytoforms is intrinsically lower than that of the Cayapa cytoform and that the differences observed are not due to density-dependent effects.