The evolutionary dynamics of influenza A virus adaptation to mammalian hosts

Zooming in on the molecular characteristics of swine influenza virus circulating in Colombia before and after the H1N1pdm09 virus

Influenza is one of the most critical viral agents involved in the respiratory disease complex affecting swine production systems worldwide. Despite the absence of vaccination against swine influenza virus in Colombia, the serologic reactivity to classic H1N1 and H3N2 subtypes reported since 1971 indicates the virus has been circulating in the country's swine population for several decades. However, successful isolation and sequencing of field virus from pigs was nonexistent until 2008, when H1N1 classical influenza virus was identified. One year later, due to the emergence of the influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 virus, responsible for the first global flu pandemic of the 21st century, it was introduced in the country. Therefore, to understand the impact of the introduction of the H1N1pdm09 virus in Colombia on the complexity and dynamics of influenza viruses previously present in the swine population, we carried out a study aiming to characterize circulating viruses genetically and establish possible reassortment events that might have happened between endemic influenza viruses before and after the introduction of the pandemic virus. A phylogenetic analysis of ten swine influenza virus isolates from porcine samples obtained between 2008 and 2015 was conducted. As a result, a displacement of the classical swine influenza virus with the pdmH1N1 virus in the swine population was confirmed. Once established, the pandemic subtype exhibited phylogenetic segregation based on a geographic pattern in all the evaluated segments. The evidence presents reassortment events with classic viruses in one of the first H1N1pdm09 isolates. Thus, this study demonstrates complex competition dynamics and variations in Colombian swine viruses through Drift and Shift.

Purifying Selection Determines the Short-Term Time Dependency of Evolutionary Rates in SARS-CoV-2 and pH1N1 Influenza

High-throughput sequencing enables rapid genome sequencing during infectious disease outbreaks and provides an opportunity to quantify the evolutionary dynamics of pathogens in near real-time. One difficulty of undertaking evolutionary analyses over short timescales is the dependency of the inferred evolutionary parameters on the timespan of observation. Crucially, there are an increasing number of molecular clock analyses using external evolutionary rate priors to infer evolutionary parameters. However, it is not clear which rate prior is appropriate for a given time window of observation due to the time-dependent nature of evolutionary rate estimates. Here, we characterize the molecular evolutionary dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and 2009 pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) influenza during the first 12 months of their respective pandemics. We use Bayesian phylogenetic methods to estimate the dates of emergence, evolutionary rates, and growth rates of SARS-CoV-2 and pH1N1 over time and investigate how varying sampling window and data set sizes affect the accuracy of parameter estimation. We further use a generalized McDonald-Kreitman test to estimate the number of segregating nonneutral sites over time. We find that the inferred evolutionary parameters for both pandemics are time dependent, and that the inferred rates of SARS-CoV-2 and pH1N1 decline by ∼50% and ∼100%, respectively, over the course of 1 year. After at least 4 months since the start of sequence sampling, inferred growth rates and emergence dates remain relatively stable and can be inferred reliably using a logistic growth coalescent model. We show that the time dependency of the mean substitution rate is due to elevated substitution rates at terminal branches which are 2-4 times higher than those of internal branches for both viruses. The elevated rate at terminal branches is strongly correlated with an increasing number of segregating nonneutral sites, demonstrating the role of purifying selection in generating the time dependency of evolutionary parameters during pandemics.

A mechanistic evolutionary model explains the time-dependent pattern of substitution rates in viruses

Estimating viral timescales is fundamental in understanding the evolutionary biology of viruses. Molecular clocks are widely used to reveal the recent evolutionary histories of viruses but may severely underestimate their longer-term origins because of the inverse correlation between inferred rates of evolution and the timescale of their measurement. Here, we provide a predictive mechanistic model that readily explains the rate decay phenomenon over a wide range of timescales and recapitulates the ubiquitous power-law rate decay with a slope of -0.65. We show that standard substitution models fail to correctly estimate divergence times once the most rapidly evolving sites saturate, typically after hundreds of years in RNA viruses and thousands of years in DNA viruses. Our model successfully recreates the observed pattern of decay and explains the evolutionary processes behind the time-dependent rate phenomenon. We then apply our model to re-estimate the date of diversification of genotypes of hepatitis C virus to 423,000 (95% highest posterior density [HPD]: 394,000-454,000) years before present, a time preceding the dispersal of modern humans out of Africa, and show that the most recent common ancestor of sarbecoviruses dates back to 21,000 (95% HPD: 19,000-22,000) years ago, nearly thirty times older than previous estimates. This creates a new perspective for our understanding of the origins of these viruses and also suggests that a substantial revision of evolutionary timescales of other viruses can be similarly achieved.

A Codon-Pair Bias Associated With Network Interactions in Influenza A, B, and C Genomes

A new codon-pair bias present in the genomes of different types of influenza virus is described. Codons with fewer network interactions are more frequency paired together than other codon-pairs in influenza A, B, and C genomes. A shared feature among three different influenza types suggests an evolutionary bias. Codon-pair preference can affect both speed of protein translation and RNA structure. This newly identified bias may provide insight into drivers of virus evolution.

Variable routes to genomic and host adaptation among coronaviruses

Natural selection operating on the genomes of viral pathogens in different host species strongly contributes to adaptation facilitating host colonization. Here, we analyse, quantify and compare viral adaptation in genomic sequence data derived from seven zoonotic events in the Coronaviridae family among primary, intermediate and human hosts. Rates of nonsynonymous (d_N) and synonymous (d_S) changes on specific amino acid positions were quantified for each open reading frame (ORF). Purifying selection accounted for 77% of all sites under selection. Diversifying selection was most frequently observed in viruses infecting the primary hosts of each virus and predominantly occurred in the orf1ab genomic region. Within all four intermediate hosts, diversifying selection on the spike gene was observed either solitarily or in combination with orf1ab and other genes. Consistent with previous evidence, pervasive diversifying selection on coronavirus spike genes corroborates the role this protein plays in host cellular entry, adaptation to new hosts and evasion of host cellular immune responses. Structural modelling of spike proteins identified a significantly higher proportion of sites for SARS‐CoV‐2 under positive selection in close proximity to sites of glycosylation relative to the other coronaviruses. Among human coronaviruses, there was a significant inverse correlation between the number of sites under positive selection and the estimated years since the virus was introduced into the human population. Abundant diversifying selection observed in SARS‐CoV‐2 suggests the virus remains in the adaptive phase of the host switch, typical of recent host switches. A mechanistic understanding of where, when and how genomic adaptation occurs in coronaviruses following a host shift is crucial for vaccine design, public health responses and predicting future pandemics.

Current and prospective control strategies of influenza A virus in swine

BACKGROUND

Influenza A Viruses (IAV) are endemic pathogens of significant concern in humans and multiple keystone livestock species. Widespread morbidity in swine herds negatively impacts animal welfare standards and economic performance whilst human IAV pandemics have emerged from pigs on multiple occasions. To combat the rising prevalence of swine IAV there must be effective control strategies available.

MAIN BODY

The most basic form of IAV control on swine farms is through good animal husbandry practices and high animal welfare standards. To control inter-herd transmission, biosecurity considerations such as quarantining of pigs and implementing robust health and safety systems for workers help to reduce the likelihood of swine IAV becoming endemic. Closely complementing the physical on-farm practices are IAV surveillance programs. Epidemiological data is critical in understanding regional distribution and variation to assist in determining an appropriate response to outbreaks and understanding the nature of historical swine IAV epidemics and zoonoses. Medical intervention in pigs is restricted to vaccination, a measure fraught with the intrinsic difficulties of mounting an immune response against a highly mutable virus. It is the best available tool for controlling IAV in swine but is far from being a perfect solution due to its unreliable efficacy and association with an enhanced respiratory disease. Because IAV generally has low mortality rates there is a reticence in the uptake of vaccination. Novel genetic technologies could be a complementary strategy for IAV control in pigs that confers broad-acting resistance. Transgenic pigs with IAV resistance are useful as models, however the complexity of these reaching the consumer market limits them to research models. More promising are gene-editing approaches to prevent viral exploitation of host proteins and modern vaccine technologies that surpass those currently available.

CONCLUSION

Using the suite of IAV control measures that are available for pigs effectively we can improve the economic productivity of pig farming whilst improving on-farm animal welfare standards and avoid facing the extensive social and financial costs of a pandemic. Fighting 'Flu in pigs will help mitigate the very real threat of a human pandemic emerging, increase security of the global food system and lead to healthier pigs.

Interspecies Transmission of Reassortant Swine Influenza A Virus Containing Genes from Swine Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H1N2) Viruses

Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 (pH1N1) virus has become established in swine in the United Kingdom and currently co-circulates with previously enzootic swine influenza A virus (IAV) strains, including avian-like H1N1 and human-like H1N2 viruses. During 2010, a swine influenza A reassortant virus, H1N2r, which caused mild clinical disease in pigs in the United Kingdom, was isolated. This reassortant virus has a novel gene constellation, incorporating the internal gene cassette of pH1N1-origin viruses and hemagglutinin and neuraminidase genes of swine IAV H1N2 origin. We investigated the pathogenesis and infection dynamics of the H1N2r isolate in pigs (the natural host) and in ferrets, which represent a human model of infection. Clinical and virologic parameters were mild in both species and both intraspecies and interspecies transmission was observed when initiated from either infected pigs or infected ferrets. This novel reassortant virus has zoonotic and reverse zoonotic potential, but no apparent increased virulence or transmissibility, in comparison to pH1N1 viruses.

Recombination and Positive Selection Differentially Shaped the Diversity of Betacoronavirus Subgenera

The Betacoronavirus genus of mammal-infecting viruses includes three subgenera (Sarbecovirus, Embecovirus, and Merbecovirus), in which most known human coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2, cluster. Coronaviruses are prone to host shifts, with recombination and positive selection possibly contributing to their high zoonotic potential. We analyzed the role of these two forces in the evolution of viruses belonging to the Betacoronavirus genus. The results showed that recombination has been pervasive during sarbecovirus evolution, and it is more widespread in this subgenus compared to the other two. In both sarbecoviruses and merbecoviruses, recombination hotspots are clearly observed. Conversely, positive selection was a less prominent force in sarbecoviruses compared to embecoviruses and merbecoviruses and targeted distinct genomic regions in the three subgenera, with S being the major target in sarbecoviruses alone. Overall, the results herein indicate that Betacoronavirus subgenera evolved along different trajectories, which might recapitulate their host preferences or reflect the origins of the presently available coronavirus sequences.

Animal Disease Surveillance in the 21st Century: Applications and Robustness of Phylodynamic Methods in Recent U.S. Human-Like H3 Swine Influenza Outbreaks

Emerging and endemic animal viral diseases continue to impose substantial impacts on animal and human health. Most current and past molecular surveillance studies of animal diseases investigated spatio-temporal and evolutionary dynamics of the viruses in a disjointed analytical framework, ignoring many uncertainties and made joint conclusions from both analytical approaches. Phylodynamic methods offer a uniquely integrated platform capable of inferring complex epidemiological and evolutionary processes from the phylogeny of viruses in populations using a single Bayesian statistical framework. In this study, we reviewed and outlined basic concepts and aspects of phylodynamic methods and attempted to summarize essential components of the methodology in one analytical pipeline to facilitate the proper use of the methods by animal health researchers. Also, we challenged the robustness of the posterior evolutionary parameters, inferred by the commonly used phylodynamic models, using hemagglutinin (HA) and polymerase basic 2 (PB2) segments of the currently circulating human-like H3 swine influenza (SI) viruses isolated in the United States and multiple priors. Subsequently, we compared similarities and differences between the posterior parameters inferred from sequence data using multiple phylodynamic models. Our suggested phylodynamic approach attempts to reduce the impact of its inherent limitations to offer less biased and biologically plausible inferences about the pathogen evolutionary characteristics to properly guide intervention activities. We also pinpointed requirements and challenges for integrating phylodynamic methods in routine animal disease surveillance activities.

A brief history of bird flu

In 1918, a strain of influenza A virus caused a human pandemic resulting in the deaths of 50 million people. A century later, with the advent of sequencing technology and corresponding phylogenetic methods, we know much more about the origins, evolution and epidemiology of influenza epidemics. Here we review the history of avian influenza viruses through the lens of their genetic makeup: from their relationship to human pandemic viruses, starting with the 1918 H1N1 strain, through to the highly pathogenic epidemics in birds and zoonoses up to 2018. We describe the genesis of novel influenza A virus strains by reassortment and evolution in wild and domestic bird populations, as well as the role of wild bird migration in their long-range spread. The emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses, and the zoonotic incursions of avian H5 and H7 viruses into humans over the last couple of decades are also described. The threat of a new avian influenza virus causing a human pandemic is still present today, although control in domestic avian populations can minimize the risk to human health.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes’. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control’.

Prisoners of war - host adaptation and its constraints on virus evolution

Recent discoveries of contemporary genotypes of hepatitis B virus and parvovirus B19 in ancient human remains demonstrate that little genetic change has occurred in these viruses over 4,500-6,000 years. Endogenous viral elements in host genomes provide separate evidence that viruses similar to many major contemporary groups circulated 100 million years ago or earlier. In this Opinion article, we argue that the extraordinary conservation of virus genome sequences is best explained by a niche-filling model in which fitness optimization is rapidly achieved in their specific hosts. Whereas short-term substitution rates reflect the accumulation of tolerated sequence changes within adapted genomes, longer-term rates increasingly resemble those of their hosts as the evolving niche moulds and effectively imprisons the virus in co-adapted virus-host relationships. Contrastingly, viruses that jump hosts undergo strong and stringent adaptive selection as they maximize their fit to their new niche. This adaptive capability may paradoxically create evolutionary stasis in long-term host relationships. While viruses can evolve and adapt rapidly, their hosts may ultimately shape their longer-term evolution.

Displacement of the Gent/1999 human-like swine H1N2 influenza A virus lineage by novel H1N2 reassortants in Germany

A swine influenza survey was conducted between 2003 and 2015 in Germany. During this period, 8122 snout swabs or other respiratory specimens from pigs of 5178 herds, mainly from Germany, were investigated for the presence of swine influenza A virus (S-IAV). In total, 1310 S-IAV isolates were collected. Of this collection, the complete genome of 267 H1N2 S-IAV isolates was sequenced and phylogenetically analyzed. The data demonstrate the incursion of human-like swine H1N2 viruses (Gent/1999-like) in 2000 and prevalent circulation until 2010. From 2008 onward, a sustained and broad change of the genetic constellation of the swine H1N2 subtype commenced. The Gent/1999-like swine H1N2 viruses ceased and several new swine H1N2 reassortants emerged and became prevalent in Germany. Of these, the upsurge of the Diepholz/2008-like, Emmelsbuell/2009-like and Papenburg/2010-like viruses is notable. The data reveal the importance of reassortment events in S-IAV evolution. The strong circulation of S-IAV of different lineages in the swine population throughout the year underlines that pigs are important reservoir hosts.

State feedback impulsive therapy to SIS model of animal infectious diseases

Controlling animal infectious diseases and its related infra microbes is of great significance to public health, since a lot of infectious diseases originate from animal epidemics and they often threaten human health. A state feedback impulsive model is constructed to depict the transmission and treatment of animal epidemics. Basing on the impulsive model, the existence of order-1 periodic solution and its stability are proved with a novel method. The theoretical results indicate that the impulsive treatment triggered by the number of infectious is an efficient approach to control animal infectious disease from breakout. Numerical simulation is presented to support the theoretical conclusion in the end.

In-depth phylodynamics, evolutionary analysis and in silico predictions of universal epitopes of Influenza A subtypes and Influenza B viruses

This study applied High-Performance Computing to explore the high-resolution phylodynamics and the evolutionary dynamics of Influenza viruses (IVs) A and B and their subtypes in-depth to identify peptide-based candidates for broad-spectrum vaccine targets. For this purpose, we collected all the available Hemagglutinin (HA) and Neuraminidase (NA) nucleotide and amino acid sequences (more than 100,000) of IVs isolated from all the reservoirs and intermediate hosts species, from all geographic ranges and from different isolation sources, covering a period of almost one century of sampling years. We highlight that despite the constant changes in Influenza evolutionary dynamics over time, which are responsible for the generation of novel strains, our study identified the presence of highly conserved peptides distributed in all the HA and NA found in H1-H18 and N1-N11 IAV subtypes and IBVs. Additionally, predictions through computational methods showed that these peptides could have a strong affinity to bind to HLA-A∗02:01/HLA-DRB1∗01:01 major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I and II molecules, therefore acting as a double ligand. Moreover, epitope prediction in antigens from pathogens responsible for secondary bacterial infection was also studied. These findings show that the regions mapped here may potentially be explored as universal epitope-based candidates to develop therapies leading to a broader response against the infection induced by all circulating IAVs, IBVs and Influenza-associated bacterial infections.

Stability of the Influenza Virus Hemagglutinin Protein Correlates with Evolutionary Dynamics

One of the constraints on fast-evolving viruses, such as influenza virus, is protein stability, or how strongly the folded protein holds together. Despite the importance of this protein property, there has been limited investigation of the impact of the stability of the influenza virus hemagglutinin protein—the primary antibody target of the immune system—on its evolution. Using a combination of computational estimates of stability and experiments, our analysis found that viruses with more-stable hemagglutinin proteins were associated with long-term persistence in the population. There are two potential reasons for the observed persistence. One is that more-stable proteins tolerate destabilizing mutations that less-stable proteins could not, thus increasing opportunities for immune escape. The second is that greater stability increases the fitness of the virus through increased production of infectious particles. Further research on the relative importance of these mechanisms could help inform the annual influenza vaccine composition decision process.

Protein thermodynamics are an integral determinant of viral fitness and one of the major drivers of protein evolution. Mutations in the influenza A virus (IAV) hemagglutinin (HA) protein can eliminate neutralizing antibody binding to mediate escape from preexisting antiviral immunity. Prior research on the IAV nucleoprotein suggests that protein stability may constrain seasonal IAV evolution; however, the role of stability in shaping the evolutionary dynamics of the HA protein has not been explored. We used the full coding sequence of 9,797 H1N1pdm09 HA sequences and 16,716 human seasonal H3N2 HA sequences to computationally estimate relative changes in the thermal stability of the HA protein between 2009 and 2016. Phylogenetic methods were used to characterize how stability differences impacted the evolutionary dynamics of the virus. We found that pandemic H1N1 IAV strains split into two lineages that had different relative HA protein stabilities and that later variants were descended from the higher-stability lineage. Analysis of the mutations associated with the selective sweep of the higher-stability lineage found that they were characterized by the early appearance of highly stabilizing mutations, the earliest of which was not located in a known antigenic site. Experimental evidence further suggested that H1N1 HA stability may be correlated with in vitro virus production and infection. A similar analysis of H3N2 strains found that surviving lineages were also largely descended from viruses predicted to encode more-stable HA proteins. Our results suggest that HA protein stability likely plays a significant role in the persistence of different IAV lineages.

IMPORTANCE One of the constraints on fast-evolving viruses, such as influenza virus, is protein stability, or how strongly the folded protein holds together. Despite the importance of this protein property, there has been limited investigation of the impact of the stability of the influenza virus hemagglutinin protein—the primary antibody target of the immune system—on its evolution. Using a combination of computational estimates of stability and experiments, our analysis found that viruses with more-stable hemagglutinin proteins were associated with long-term persistence in the population. There are two potential reasons for the observed persistence. One is that more-stable proteins tolerate destabilizing mutations that less-stable proteins could not, thus increasing opportunities for immune escape. The second is that greater stability increases the fitness of the virus through increased production of infectious particles. Further research on the relative importance of these mechanisms could help inform the annual influenza vaccine composition decision process.

Adaptive evolution during the establishment of European avian-like H1N1 influenza A virus in swine

An H1N1 subtype influenza A virus with all eight gene segments derived from wild birds (including mallards), ducks and chickens, caused severe disease outbreaks in swine populations in Europe beginning in 1979 and successfully adapted to form the European avian‐like swine (EA‐swine) influenza lineage. Genes of the EA‐swine lineage that are clearly segregated from its closest avian relatives continue to circulate in swine populations globally and represent a unique opportunity to study the adaptive process of an avian‐to‐mammalian cross‐species transmission. Here, we used a relaxed molecular clock model to test whether the EA‐swine virus originated through the introduction of a single avian ancestor as an entire genome, followed by an analysis of host‐specific selection pressures among different gene segments. Our data indicated independent introduction of gene segments via transmission of avian viruses into swine followed by reassortment events that occurred at least 1–4 years prior to the EA‐swine outbreak. All EA‐swine gene segments exhibit greater selection pressure than avian viruses, reflecting both adaptive pressures and relaxed selective constraints that are associated with host switching. Notably, we identified key amino acid mutations in the viral surface proteins (H1 and N1) that play a role in adaptation to new hosts. Following the establishment of EA‐swine lineage, we observed an increased frequency of intrasubtype reassortment of segments compared to the earlier strains that has been associated with adaptive amino acid replacements, disease severity and vaccine escape. Taken together, our study provides key insights into the adaptive changes in viral genomes following the transmission of avian influenza viruses to swine and the early establishment of the EA‐swine lineage.

Ranavirus phylogenomics: Signatures of recombination and inversions among bullfrog ranaculture isolates

Ranaviruses are emerging pathogens of fish, amphibians, and reptiles that threaten aquatic animal industries and wildlife worldwide. Our objective was to genetically characterize ranaviruses isolated during separate bullfrog Lithobates catesbeianus die-offs that occurred eight years apart on the same North American farm. The earlier outbreak was due to a highly pathogenic strain of common midwife toad virus (CMTV) previously known only from Europe and China. The later outbreak was due to a chimeric ranavirus that displayed a novel genome arrangement and a DNA backbone typical for Frog virus 3 (FV3) strains except for interspersed fragments acquired through recombination with the CMTV isolated earlier. Both bullfrog ranaviruses are more pathogenic than wild-type FV3 suggesting recombination may have resulted in the increased pathogenicity observed in the ranavirus isolated in the later outbreak. Our study underscores the role international trade in farmed bullfrogs may have played in the global dissemination of highly pathogenic ranaviruses.

The Role of Punctuated Evolution in the Pathogenicity of Influenza Viruses

Influenza is an acute respiratory disease caused by influenza viruses. Evolutionarily, all influenza viruses are zoonoses, arising in the animal reservoir and spilling over into the human population. Several times a century, one of these zoonotic events results in a new influenza virus lineage becoming established in humans and circulating for years or decades as an endemic strain. The worldwide pandemic that occurs shortly after the nascent virus becomes established can have a profound impact on morbidity and mortality. Because influenza viruses continually evolve and the illness they engender can vary considerably based on characteristics of the strain, the weather, other circulating or endemic pathogens, as well as the number of susceptible hosts, the impact of each season on human health is unpredictable. Over time, the general pattern is for pandemic strains to adapt and gradually take on characteristics of seasonal strains with lower virulence and a diminished synergism with bacterial pathogens. Study of this punctuated evolution yields a number of insights into the overall pathogenicity of influenza viruses.

Novel antigenic shift in HA sequences of H1N1 viruses detected by big data analysis

The influenza virus H1N1 has been prevalent all over the world for nearly a century. Many studies on its evolutionary history, substitution rate and antigenicity-associated sites have been done with small datasets. To have a complete view, we analysed 3171 full-length HA sequences from human H1N1 viruses sampled from 1918 to 2016, and discovered a new clade has formed with sequences isolated in Iran. Based on genetic distance calculations, we revealed an uneven evolutionary rate among sequences isolated in different years. We also found that the HA1 fragment of the new clade is like that of viruses that existed in the 1930s, while the HA2 fragment is closely associated with strains isolated after the 2009 pandemic. This new, "mixed" HA sequence indicates a cryptic antigenic shift event occurred, and it should draw more attention to the new clade identified from sequences from Iran.

Characterization of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) Envelope Diversification from Acute to Chronic Infection within a Sexually Transmitted HCV Cluster by Using Single-Molecule, Real-Time Sequencing

In contrast to other available next-generation sequencing platforms, PacBio single-molecule, real-time (SMRT) sequencing has the advantage of generating long reads albeit with a relatively higher error rate in unprocessed data. Using this platform, we longitudinally sampled and sequenced the hepatitis C virus (HCV) envelope genome region (1,680 nucleotides [nt]) from individuals belonging to a cluster of sexually transmitted cases. All five subjects were coinfected with HIV-1 and a closely related strain of HCV genotype 4d. In total, 50 samples were analyzed by using SMRT sequencing. By using 7 passes of circular consensus sequencing, the error rate was reduced to 0.37%, and the median number of sequences was 612 per sample. A further reduction of insertions was achieved by alignment against a sample-specific reference sequence. However, in vitro recombination during PCR amplification could not be excluded. Phylogenetic analysis supported close relationships among HCV sequences from the four male subjects and subsequent transmission from one subject to his female partner. Transmission was characterized by a strong genetic bottleneck. Viral genetic diversity was low during acute infection and increased upon progression to chronicity but subsequently fluctuated during chronic infection, caused by the alternate detection of distinct coexisting lineages. SMRT sequencing combines long reads with sufficient depth for many phylogenetic analyses and can therefore provide insights into within-host HCV evolutionary dynamics without the need for haplotype reconstruction using statistical algorithms.IMPORTANCE Next-generation sequencing has revolutionized the study of genetically variable RNA virus populations, but for phylogenetic and evolutionary analyses, longer sequences than those generated by most available platforms, while minimizing the intrinsic error rate, are desired. Here, we demonstrate for the first time that PacBio SMRT sequencing technology can be used to generate full-length HCV envelope sequences at the single-molecule level, providing a data set with large sequencing depth for the characterization of intrahost viral dynamics. The selection of consensus reads derived from at least 7 full circular consensus sequencing rounds significantly reduced the intrinsic high error rate of this method. We used this method to genetically characterize a unique transmission cluster of sexually transmitted HCV infections, providing insight into the distinct evolutionary pathways in each patient over time and identifying the transmission-associated genetic bottleneck as well as fluctuations in viral genetic diversity over time, accompanied by dynamic shifts in viral subpopulations.

Adaptation of avian influenza virus to a swine host

The emergence of pathogenic RNA viruses into new hosts can have dramatic consequences for both livestock and public health. Here we characterize the viral genetic changes that were observed in a previous study which experimentally adapted a field isolate of duck influenza virus to swine respiratory cells. Both pre-existing and de novo mutations were selected during this adaptation. We compare the in vitro growth dynamics of the adapted virus with those of the original strain as well as all possible reassortants using reverse genetics. This full factorial design showed that viral gene segments are involved in complex epistatic interactions on virus fitness, including negative and sign epistasis. We also identify two point mutations at positions 67 and 113 of the HA2 subunit of the hemagglutinin protein conferring a fast growth phenotype on the naïve avian virus in swine cells. These HA2 mutations enhance the pH dependent, HA-mediated membrane fusion. A global H1 maximum-likelihood phylogenetic analysis, combined with comprehensive ancestry reconstruction and tests for directional selection, confirmed the field relevance of the mutation at position 113 of HA2. Most notably, this mutation was associated with the establishment of the H1 'avian-like' swine influenza lineage, regarded as the most likely to cause the next influenza pandemic in humans. This multidisciplinary approach to study the genetics of viral adaptation provides unique insights on the underlying processes leading to influenza emergence in a new host species, and identifies specific targets for future surveillance and functional studies.

Hajj vaccinations-facts, challenges, and hope

Vaccination is an effective preventive measure that has been used in the unique Hajj pilgrimage setting to control the transmission of infectious diseases. The current vaccination policy applied during Hajj is reviewed herein, highlighting the effectiveness of the approaches applied and identifying research gaps that need to be filled in order to improve the development and dissemination of Hajj vaccination strategies.

Neuroinvasive influenza virus A(H5N8) in fattening ducks, Hungary, 2015

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A virus H5N8 was detected in far east Asian countries during 2014 and emerged in late 2014 in European countries. Hungary reported a HPAI A(H5N8) outbreak during late winter of 2015 at a Pekin duck fattening facility. Epidemiologic monitoring was extended to holdings in neighboring areas and nearby habitats used by wild birds but failed to identify the source of infection. In addition to respiratory symptoms, the affected birds showed lethargy and neuronal signs, including torticollis. Consistent with this finding, influenza A virus antigen was detected in large quantity in the brain. Molecular analysis of the identified strain showed very close genetic relationship (and >99% nucleotide sequence identity) with co-circulating HPAI A(H5N8) strains. A number of unique or rarely detected amino acid changes was detected in the HA (T220I, R512G), the M2 (I39M), the NA (T211I), the NS1 (P85T), and the PB2 (I261V) proteins of the Hungarian strain. Further studies are needed to demonstrate whether any of these mutations can be linked to neuroinvasiveness and neurovirulence in ducks.

Extensive Positive Selection Drives the Evolution of Nonstructural Proteins in Lineage C Betacoronaviruses

Middle East respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (MERS-CoV) spreads to humans via zoonotic transmission from camels. MERS-CoV belongs to lineage C of betacoronaviruses (betaCoVs), which also includes viruses isolated from bats and hedgehogs. A large portion of the betaCoV genome consists of two open reading frames (ORF1a and ORF1b) that are translated into polyproteins. These are cleaved by viral proteases to generate 16 nonstructural proteins (nsp1 to nsp16) which compose the viral replication-transcription complex. We investigated the evolution of ORF1a and ORF1b in lineage C betaCoVs. Results indicated widespread positive selection, acting mostly on ORF1a. The proportion of positively selected sites in ORF1a was much higher than that previously reported for the surface-exposed spike protein. Selected sites were unevenly distributed, with nsp3 representing the preferential target. Several pairs of coevolving sites were also detected, possibly indicating epistatic interactions; most of these were located in nsp3. Adaptive evolution at nsp3 is ongoing in MERS-CoV strains, and two selected sites (G720 and R911) were detected in the protease domain. While position 720 is variable in camel-derived viruses, suggesting that the selective event does not represent a specific adaptation to humans, the R911C substitution was observed only in human-derived MERS-CoV isolates, including the viral strain responsible for the recent South Korean outbreak. It will be extremely important to assess whether these changes affect host range or other viral phenotypes. More generally, data herein indicate that CoV nsp3 represents a major selection target and that nsp3 sequencing should be envisaged in monitoring programs and field surveys.

IMPORTANCE

Both severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and MERS-CoV originated in bats and spread to humans via an intermediate host. This clearly highlights the potential for coronavirus host shifting and the relevance of understanding the molecular events underlying the adaptation to new host species. We investigated the evolution of ORF1a and ORF1b in lineage C betaCoVs and in 87 sequenced MERS-CoV isolates. Results indicated widespread positive selection, stronger in ORF1a than in ORF1b. Several selected sites were found to be located in functionally relevant protein regions, and some of them corresponded to functional mutations in other coronaviruses. The proportion of selected sites we identified in ORF1a is much higher than that for the surface-exposed spike protein. This observation suggests that adaptive evolution in ORF1a might contribute to host shifts or immune evasion. Data herein also indicate that genetic diversity at nonstructural proteins should be taken into account when antiviral compounds are developed.

Faster Adaptation in Smaller Populations: Counterintuitive Evolution of HIV during Childhood Infection

Analysis of HIV-1 gene sequences sampled longitudinally from infected individuals can reveal the evolutionary dynamics that underlie associations between disease outcome and viral genetic diversity and divergence. Here we extend a statistical framework to estimate rates of viral molecular adaptation by considering sampling error when computing nucleotide site-frequencies. This is particularly beneficial when analyzing viral sequences from within-host viral infections if the number of sequences per time point is limited. To demonstrate the utility of this approach, we apply our method to a cohort of 24 patients infected with HIV-1 at birth. Our approach finds that viral adaptation arising from recurrent positive natural selection is associated with the rate of HIV-1 disease progression, in contrast to previous analyses of these data that found no significant association. Most surprisingly, we discover a strong negative correlation between viral population size and the rate of viral adaptation, the opposite of that predicted by standard molecular evolutionary theory. We argue that this observation is most likely due to the existence of a confounding third variable, namely variation in selective pressure among hosts. A conceptual non-linear model of virus adaptation that incorporates the two opposing effects of host immunity on the virus population can explain this counterintuitive result.

Since some common approaches to the study of molecular adaptation may not be optimal for answering questions regarding within-host virus evolution, we have developed an alternative approach that estimates an absolute rate of molecular adaptation from serially-sampled viral populations. Here, we extend this framework to include sampling error when estimating the rate of adaptation, which is an important addition when analyzing historical data sets obtained in the pre-HAART era, for which the number of sequences per time point is often limited. We applied this extended method to a cohort of 24 pediatric HIV-1 patients and discovered that viral adaptation is strongly associated with the rate of disease progression, which is in contrast to previous analyses of these data that did not find a significant association. Strikingly, this results in a negative relationship between the rate of viral adaptation and viral population size, which is unexpected under standard micro-evolutionary models since larger populations are predicted to fix more mutations per unit time than smaller populations. Our findings indicate that the negative correlation is unlikely to be driven by relaxation of selective constraint, but instead by significant variation in host immune responses. Consequently, this supports a previously proposed non-linear model of viral adaptation in which host immunity imposes counteracting effects on population size and selection.

Genome-Wide Analysis of Evolutionary Markers of Human Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) Viruses May Guide Selection of Vaccine Strain Candidates

Here we analyzed whole-genome sequences of 3,969 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and 4,774 A(H3N2) strains that circulated during 2009–2015 in the world. The analysis revealed changes at 481 and 533 amino acid sites in proteins of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) strains, respectively. Many of these changes were introduced as a result of random drift. However, there were 61 and 68 changes that were present in relatively large number of A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) strains, respectively, that circulated during relatively long time. We named these amino acid substitutions evolutionary markers, as they seemed to contain valuable information regarding the viral evolution. Interestingly, influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) viruses acquired non-overlapping sets of evolutionary markers. We next analyzed these characteristic markers in vaccine strains recommended by the World Health Organization for the past five years. Our analysis revealed that vaccine strains carried only few evolutionary markers at antigenic sites of viral hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). The absence of these markers at antigenic sites could affect the recognition of HA and NA by human antibodies generated in response to vaccinations. This could, in part, explain moderate efficacy of influenza vaccines during 2009–2014. Finally, we identified influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) strains, which contain all the evolutionary markers of influenza A strains circulated in 2015, and which could be used as vaccine candidates for the 2015/2016 season. Thus, genome-wide analysis of evolutionary markers of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) viruses may guide selection of vaccine strain candidates.

Molecular Epidemiology and Evolution of Influenza Viruses Circulating within European Swine between 2009 and 2013

The emergence in humans of the A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza virus, a complex reassortant virus of swine origin, highlighted the importance of worldwide influenza virus surveillance in swine. To date, large-scale surveillance studies have been reported for southern China and North America, but such data have not yet been described for Europe. We report the first large-scale genomic characterization of 290 swine influenza viruses collected from 14 European countries between 2009 and 2013. A total of 23 distinct genotypes were identified, with the 7 most common comprising 82% of the incidence. Contrasting epidemiological dynamics were observed for two of these genotypes, H1huN2 and H3N2, with the former showing multiple long-lived geographically isolated lineages, while the latter had short-lived geographically diffuse lineages. At least 32 human-swine transmission events have resulted in A(H1N1)pdm09 becoming established at a mean frequency of 8% across European countries. Notably, swine in the United Kingdom have largely had a replacement of the endemic Eurasian avian virus-like ("avian-like") genotypes with A(H1N1)pdm09-derived genotypes. The high number of reassortant genotypes observed in European swine, combined with the identification of a genotype similar to the A(H3N2)v genotype in North America, underlines the importance of continued swine surveillance in Europe for the purposes of maintaining public health. This report further reveals that the emergences and drivers of virus evolution in swine differ at the global level.

IMPORTANCE

The influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus contains a reassortant genome with segments derived from separate virus lineages that evolved in different regions of the world. In particular, its neuraminidase and matrix segments were derived from the Eurasian avian virus-like ("avian-like") lineage that emerged in European swine in the 1970s. However, while large-scale genomic characterization of swine has been reported for southern China and North America, no equivalent study has yet been reported for Europe. Surveillance of swine herds across Europe between 2009 and 2013 revealed that the A(H1N1)pdm09 virus is established in European swine, increasing the number of circulating lineages in the region and increasing the possibility of the emergence of a genotype with human pandemic potential. It also has implications for veterinary health, making prevention through vaccination more challenging. The identification of a genotype similar to the A(H3N2)v genotype, causing zoonoses at North American agricultural fairs, underlines the importance of continued genomic characterization in European swine.

Time dependence of evolutionary metrics during the 2009 pandemic influenza virus outbreak

With the expansion of DNA sequencing technology, quantifying evolution in emerging viral outbreaks has become an important tool for scientists and public health officials. Although it is known that the degree of sequence divergence significantly affects the calculation of evolutionary metrics in viral outbreaks, the extent and duration of this effect during an actual outbreak remains unclear. We have analyzed how limited divergence time during an early viral outbreak affects the accuracy of molecular evolutionary metrics. Using sequence data from the first 25 months of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) outbreak, we calculated each of three different standard evolutionary metrics-molecular clock rate (i.e., evolutionary rate), whole gene dN/dS, and site-wise dN/dS-for hemagglutinin and neuraminidase, using increasingly longer time windows, from 1 month to 25 months. For the molecular clock rate, we found that at least three to four months of temporal divergence from the start of sampling was required to make precise estimates that also agreed with long-term values. For whole gene dN/dS, we found that at least two months of data were required to generate precise estimates, but six to nine months were required for estimates to approach their long term values. For site-wise dN/dS estimates, we found that at least six months of sampling divergence was required before the majority of sites had at least one mutation and were thus evolutionarily informative. Furthermore, eight months of sampling divergence was required before the site-wise estimates appropriately reflected the distribution of values expected from known protein-structure-based evolutionary pressure in influenza. In summary, we found that evolutionary metrics calculated from gene sequence data in early outbreaks should be expected to deviate from their long-term estimates for at least several months after the initial emergence and sequencing of the virus.

Influenza virus non-structural protein NS1: interferon antagonism and beyond

Most viruses express one or several proteins that counter the antiviral defences of the host cell. This is the task of non-structural protein NS1 in influenza viruses. Absent in the viral particle, but highly expressed in the infected cell, NS1 dramatically inhibits cellular gene expression and prevents the activation of key players in the IFN system. In addition, NS1 selectively enhances the translation of viral mRNAs and may regulate the synthesis of viral RNAs. Our knowledge of the virus and of NS1 has increased dramatically during the last 15 years. The atomic structure of NS1 has been determined, many cellular partners have been identified and its multiple activities have been studied in depth. This review presents our current knowledge, and attempts to establish relationships between the RNA sequence, the structure of the protein, its ligands, its activities and the pathogenicity of the virus. A better understanding of NS1 could help in elaborating novel antiviral strategies, based on either live vaccines with altered NS1 or on small-compound inhibitors of NS1.

Recent host-shifts in ranaviruses: signatures of positive selection in the viral genome

Ranaviruses have been implicated in recent declines in global amphibian populations. Compared with the family Iridoviridae, to which the genus Ranavirus belongs, ranaviruses have a wide host range in that species/strains are known to infect fish, amphibians and reptiles, presumably due to recent host-switching events. We used eight sequenced ranavirus genomes and two selection-detection methods (site based and branch based) to identify genes that exhibited signatures of positive selection, potentially due to the selective pressures at play during host switching. We found evidence of positive selection acting on four genes via the site-based method, three of which were newly acquired genes unique to ranavirus genomes. Using the branch-based method, we identified eight additional candidate genes that exhibited signatures of dN/dS (non-synonymous/synonymous substitution rate) >1 in the clade where intense host switching had occurred. We found that these branch-specific patterns of elevated dN/dS were enriched in a small group of viral genes that have been acquired most recently in the ranavirus genome, compared with core genes that are shared among all members of the family Iridoviridae. Our results suggest that the group of newly acquired genes in the ranavirus genome may have undergone recent adaptive changes that have facilitated interspecies and interclass host switching.