Forecasting parasite sharing under climate change

Interconnecting global threats: climate change, biodiversity loss, and infectious diseases

The concurrent pressures of rising global temperatures, rates and incidence of species decline, and emergence of infectious diseases represent an unprecedented planetary crisis. Intergovernmental reports have drawn focus to the escalating climate and biodiversity crises and the connections between them, but interactions among all three pressures have been largely overlooked. Non-linearities and dampening and reinforcing interactions among pressures make considering interconnections essential to anticipating planetary challenges. In this Review, we define and exemplify the causal pathways that link the three global pressures of climate change, biodiversity loss, and infectious disease. A literature assessment and case studies show that the mechanisms between certain pairs of pressures are better understood than others and that the full triad of interactions is rarely considered. Although challenges to evaluating these interactions-including a mismatch in scales, data availability, and methods-are substantial, current approaches would benefit from expanding scientific cultures to embrace interdisciplinarity and from integrating animal, human, and environmental perspectives. Considering the full suite of connections would be transformative for planetary health by identifying potential for co-benefits and mutually beneficial scenarios, and highlighting where a narrow focus on solutions to one pressure might aggravate another.

The interacting effect of climate change and herbivory can trigger large-scale transformations of European temperate forests

In many regions of Europe, large wild herbivores alter forest community composition through their foraging preferences, hinder the forest's natural adaptive responses to climate change, and reduce ecosystem resilience. We investigated a widespread European forest type, a mixed forest dominated by Picea abies, which has recently experienced an unprecedented level of disturbance across the continent. Using the forest landscape model iLand, we investigated the combined effect of climate change and herbivory on forest structure, composition, and carbon and identified conditions leading to ecosystem transitions on a 300-year timescale. Eight climate change scenarios, driven by Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5, combined with three levels of regeneration browsing, were tested. We found that the persistence of the current level of browsing pressure impedes adaptive changes in community composition and sustains the presence of the vulnerable yet less palatable P. abies. These development trajectories were tortuous, characterized by a high disturbance intensity. On the contrary, reduced herbivory initiated a transformation towards the naturally dominant broadleaved species that was associated with an increased forest carbon and a considerably reduced disturbance. The conditions of RCP4.5 combined with high and moderate browsing levels preserved the forest within its reference range of variability, defining the actual boundaries of resilience. The remaining combinations of browsing and climate change led to ecosystem transitions. Under RCP4.5 with browsing effects excluded, the new equilibrium conditions were achieved within 120 years, whereas the stabilization was delayed by 50-100 years under RCP8.5 with higher browsing intensities. We conclude that forests dominated by P. abies are prone to transitions driven by climate change. However, reducing herbivory can set the forest on a stable and predictable trajectory, whereas sustaining the current browsing levels can lead to heightened disturbance activity, extended transition times, and high variability in the target conditions.

Integrating learning into animal range dynamics under rapid human-induced environmental change

Human-induced rapid environmental change (HIREC) is creating environments deviating considerably from natural habitats in which species evolved. Concurrently, climate warming is pushing species' climatic envelopes to geographic regions that offer novel ecological conditions. The persistence of species is likely affected by the interplay between the degree of ecological novelty and phenotypic plasticity, which in turn may shape an organism's range-shifting ability. Current modelling approaches that forecast animal ranges are characterized by a static representation of the relationship between habitat use and fitness, which may bias predictions under conditions imposed by HIREC. We argue that accounting for dynamic species-resource relationships can increase the ecological realism of range shift predictions. Our rationale builds on the concepts of ecological fitting, the process whereby individuals form successful novel biotic associations based on the suite of traits they carry at the time of encountering the novel condition, and behavioural plasticity, in particular learning. These concepts have revolutionized our view on fitness in novel ecological settings, and the way these processes may influence species ranges under HIREC. We have integrated them into a model of range expansion as a conceptual proof of principle highlighting the potentially substantial role of learning ability in range shifts under HIREC.

Varroa destructor exacerbates the negative effect of cold contributing to honey bee mortality

Several concurrent stress factors can impact honey bee health and colony stability. Although a satisfactory knowledge of the effect of almost every single factor is now available, a mechanistic understanding of the many possible interactions between stressors is still largely lacking. Here we studied, both at the individual and colony level, how honey bees are affected by concurrent exposure to cold and parasitic infection. We found that the parasitic mite Varroa destructor, further than increasing the natural mortality of bees, can induce an anorexia that reduces their capacity to thermoregulate and thus react to sub-optimal temperatures. This, in turn, could affect the collective response of the bee colony to cold temperatures aggravating the effect already observed at the individual level. These results highlight the important role that biotic factors can have by shaping the response to abiotic factors and the strategic need to consider the potential interactions between stressors at all levels of the biological organization to better understand their impact.

Fifty Years of the National Rabies Control Program in Brazil under the One Health Perspective

In 1973, the National Rabies Program was created in Brazil through an agreement between the Ministry of Health and Agriculture. Since its beginning, it developed integrated action through access to free post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) for people at risk, dog vaccination campaigns, a joint surveillance system, and awareness. This study aims to describe human rabies in Brazil under the One Health perspective in recent decades, including achievements in the control of dog-mediated cases and challenges in human cases transmitted by wild animals. This paper also explores possible drivers of human rabies in the Northeast Region with half of the cases. The first part of this study was descriptive, presenting data and examples by periods. Statistical analysis was performed in the last period (2010-2022) to explore possible drivers. Dog-mediated human cases decreased from 147 to 0, and dog cases decreased from 4500 to 7. A major challenge is now human cases transmitted by wild animals (bats, non-human primates, and wild canids). Most current human cases occur in municipalities with a tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forest biome and a Gini index higher than 0.5. In the multivariable analysis, an association with temperature was estimated (OR = 1.739; CI95% = 1.181-2.744), and primary healthcare coverage (OR = 0.947; CI95% = 0.915-0.987) was identified as a protector. It is possible to significantly reduce the number of dog-mediated human rabies cases through the efforts presented. However, Brazil has wildlife variants of the rabies virus circulating. The association of human cases with higher temperatures in the Northeast is a concern with climate change. To reduce human cases transmitted by wild animals, it is important to continue distributing free PEP, especially in remote at-risk areas in the Amazon Region, and to increase awareness.

Discovery and characterization of novel paramyxoviruses from bat samples in China

Many paramyxoviruses are responsible for a variety of mild to severe human and animal diseases. Based on the novel discoveries over the past several decades, the family Paramyxoviridae infecting various hosts across the world includes 4 subfamilies, 17 classified genera and 78 species now. However, no systematic surveys of bat paramyxoviruses are available from the Chinese mainland. In this study, 13,064 samples from 54 bat species were collected and a comprehensive paramyxovirus survey was conducted. We obtained 94 new genome sequences distributed across paramyxoviruses from 22 bat species in seven provinces. Bayesian phylodynamic and phylogenetic analyses showed that there were four different lineages in the Jeilongvirus genus. Based on available data, results of host and region switches showed that the bat colony was partial to interior, whereas the rodent colony was exported, and the felines and hedgehogs were most likely the intermediate hosts from Scotophilus spp. rather than rodents. Based on the evolutionary trend, genus Jeilongvirus may have originated from Mus spp. in Australia, then transmitted to bats and rodents in Africa, Asia and Europe, and finally to bats and rodents in America.

Travelling with a parasite: the evolution of resistance and dispersal syndromes during experimental range expansion

Rapid evolutionary change during range expansions can lead to diverging range core and front populations, with the emergence of dispersal syndromes (coupled responses in dispersal and life-history traits). Besides intraspecific effects, range expansions may be impacted by interspecific interactions such as parasitism. Yet, despite the potentially large impact of parasites imposing additional selective pressures on the host, their role on range expansions remains largely unexplored. Using microcosm populations of the ciliate Paramecium caudatum and its bacterial parasite Holospora undulata, we studied experimental range expansions under parasite presence or absence. We found that the interaction of range expansion and parasite treatments affected the evolution of host dispersal syndromes. Namely, front populations showed different associations of population growth parameters and swimming behaviours than core populations, indicating divergent evolution. Parasitism reshaped trait associations, with hosts evolved in the presence of the parasite exhibiting overall increased resistance and reduced dispersal. Nonetheless, when comparing infected range core and front populations, we found a positive association, suggesting joint evolution of resistance and dispersal at the front. We conclude that host-parasite interactions during range expansions can change evolutionary trajectories; this in turn may feedback on the ecological dynamics of the range expansion and parasite epidemics.

Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk

At least 10,000 virus species have the ability to infect humans but, at present, the vast majority are circulating silently in wild mammals^1,2. However, changes in climate and land use will lead to opportunities for viral sharing among previously geographically isolated species of wildlife^3,4. In some cases, this will facilitate zoonotic spillover-a mechanistic link between global environmental change and disease emergence. Here we simulate potential hotspots of future viral sharing, using a phylogeographical model of the mammal-virus network, and projections of geographical range shifts for 3,139 mammal species under climate-change and land-use scenarios for the year 2070. We predict that species will aggregate in new combinations at high elevations, in biodiversity hotspots, and in areas of high human population density in Asia and Africa, causing the cross-species transmission of their associated viruses an estimated 4,000 times. Owing to their unique dispersal ability, bats account for the majority of novel viral sharing and are likely to share viruses along evolutionary pathways that will facilitate future emergence in humans. Notably, we find that this ecological transition may already be underway, and holding warming under 2 °C within the twenty-first century will not reduce future viral sharing. Our findings highlight an urgent need to pair viral surveillance and discovery efforts with biodiversity surveys tracking the range shifts of species, especially in tropical regions that contain the most zoonoses and are experiencing rapid warming.

Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk

At least 10,000 virus species have the ability to infect humans but, at present, the vast majority are circulating silently in wild mammals^1,2. However, changes in climate and land use will lead to opportunities for viral sharing among previously geographically isolated species of wildlife^3,4. In some cases, this will facilitate zoonotic spillover-a mechanistic link between global environmental change and disease emergence. Here we simulate potential hotspots of future viral sharing, using a phylogeographical model of the mammal-virus network, and projections of geographical range shifts for 3,139 mammal species under climate-change and land-use scenarios for the year 2070. We predict that species will aggregate in new combinations at high elevations, in biodiversity hotspots, and in areas of high human population density in Asia and Africa, causing the cross-species transmission of their associated viruses an estimated 4,000 times. Owing to their unique dispersal ability, bats account for the majority of novel viral sharing and are likely to share viruses along evolutionary pathways that will facilitate future emergence in humans. Notably, we find that this ecological transition may already be underway, and holding warming under 2 °C within the twenty-first century will not reduce future viral sharing. Our findings highlight an urgent need to pair viral surveillance and discovery efforts with biodiversity surveys tracking the range shifts of species, especially in tropical regions that contain the most zoonoses and are experiencing rapid warming.

Intraspecific diversity alters the relationship between climate change and parasitism in a polymorphic ectotherm

Climate-modulated parasitism is driven by a range of factors, yet the spatial and temporal variability of this relationship has received scant attention in wild vertebrate hosts. Moreover, most prior studies overlooked the intraspecific differences across host morphotypes, which impedes a full understanding of the climate-parasitism relationship. In the common lizard (Zootoca vivipara), females exhibit three colour morphs: yellow (Y-females), orange (O-females) and mixed (mixture of yellow and orange, M-females). Zootoca vivipara is also infested with an ectoparasite (Ophionyssus mites). We therefore used this model system to examine the intraspecific response of hosts to parasitism under climate change. We found infestation probability to differ across colour morphs at both spatial (10 sites) and temporal (20 years) scales: M-females had lower parasite infestations than Y- and O-females at lower temperatures, but became more susceptible to parasites as temperature increased. The advantage of M-females at low temperatures was counterbalanced by their higher mortality rates thereafter, which suggests a morph-dependent trade-off between resistance to parasites and host survival. Furthermore, significant interactions between colour morphs and temperature indicate that the relationship between parasite infestations and climate warming was contingent on host morphotypes. Parasite infestations increased with temperature for most morphs, but displayed morph-specific rates. Finally, infested M-females had higher reductions in survival rates than infested Y- or O-females, which implies a potential loss of intraspecific diversity within populations as parasitism and temperatures rise. Overall, we found parasitism increases with warming temperatures, but this relationship is modulated by host morphotypes and an interaction with temperature. We suggest that epidemiological models incorporate intraspecific diversity within species for better understanding the dynamics of wildlife diseases under climate warming.

Gleasonian structure in the helminth metacommunity of the opossum Didelphis albiventris in two extremes of the Atlantic Forest

Didelphis albiventris is the opossum with the largest geographic distribution in Brazil and has a wide spectrum of helminth parasites. This study aimed to describe the species composition and analyse the structure of helminth communities of D. albiventris in two extremes of the Atlantic Forest in Brazil. The influence of host sex, body mass, age, helminth species richness and locality on the abundance and prevalence of the most prevalent helminth species was investigated. Ninety-five per cent of the animals were infected with at least one species. Nine helminth species were found: the nematodes Aspidodera raillieti, Cruzia tentaculata, Trichuris didelphis and Trichuris minuta in the large intestine; Turgida turgida in the stomach; Travassostrongylus orloffi and Viannaia hamata; and the trematodes Brachylaima advena and Rhopalias coronatus in the small intestine. Three helminth morphospecies were also recovered: the nematodes Hoineffia sp. and Viannaia sp. and a cestode in the small intestine. Cruzia tentaculata and V. hamata were the species with the highest mean abundances and intensities, while the most prevalent species were A. raillieti, C. tentaculata, T. turgida and V. hamata, forming the central nucleus of the helminth component community. The analysis of the helminth metacommunity structure indicated a Gleasonian pattern for the total set of infracommunities, corroborating the beta diversity indices, which indicated more species replacement than loss between localities and infracommunities, although at a low level. The results indicated a stronger influence of host attributes than geographical distance on the community structure.

The ghost of hosts past: impacts of host extinction on parasite specificity

A growing body of research is focused on the extinction of parasite species in response to host endangerment and declines. Beyond the loss of parasite species richness, host extinction can impact apparent parasite host specificity, as measured by host richness or the phylogenetic distances among hosts. Such impacts on the distribution of parasites across the host phylogeny can have knock-on effects that may reshape the adaptation of both hosts and parasites, ultimately shifting the evolutionary landscape underlying the potential for emergence and the evolution of virulence across hosts. Here, we examine how the reshaping of host phylogenies through extinction may impact the host specificity of parasites, and offer examples from historical extinctions, present-day endangerment, and future projections of biodiversity loss. We suggest that an improved understanding of the impact of host extinction on contemporary host-parasite interactions may shed light on core aspects of disease ecology, including comparative studies of host specificity, virulence evolution in multi-host parasite systems, and future trajectories for host and parasite biodiversity. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe'.

Towards a phylogenetic ecology of plant pests and pathogens

Plant-pathogens and insect pests, hereafter pests, play an important role in structuring ecological communities, yet both native and introduced pests impose significant pressure on wild and managed systems, and pose a threat to food security. Global changes in climate and land use, and transportation of plants and pests around the globe are likely to further increase the range, frequency and severity of pest outbreaks in the future. Thus, there is a critical need to expand on current ecological theory to address these challenges. Here, we outline a phylogenetic framework for the study of plant and pest interactions. In plants, a growing body of work has suggested that evolutionary relatedness, phylogeny, strongly structures plant-pest associations-from pest host breadths and impacts, to their establishment and spread in new regions. Understanding the phylogenetic dimensions of plant-pest associations will help to inform models of invasive species spread, disease and pest risk in crops, and emerging pest outbreaks in native plant communities-which will have important implications for protecting food security and biodiversity into the future. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe'.