Could widespread use of antiviral treatment curb the COVID-19 pandemic? A modeling study

Covid19Vaxplorer: a free, online, user-friendly COVID-19 Vaccine Allocation Comparison Tool

Background

There are many COVID-19 vaccines currently available, however, Low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) still have large proportions of their populations unvaccinated. Decision-makers must decide how to effectively allocate available vaccines (e.g. boosters or primary series vaccination, which age groups to target) but LMIC often lack the resources to undergo quantitative analyses of vaccine allocation, resulting in ad-hoc policies. We developed Covid19Vaxplorer (https://covid19vaxplorer.fredhutch.org/), a free, user-friendly online tool that simulates region-specific COVID-19 epidemics in conjunction with vaccination with the purpose of providing public health officials worldwide with a tool for vaccine allocation planning and comparison.

Methods

We developed an age-structured mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and COVID-19 vaccination. The model considers vaccination with up to three different vaccine products, primary series and boosters. We simulated partial immunity derived from waning of natural infection and vaccination. The model is embedded in an online tool, Covid19Vaxplorer that was optimized for its ease of use. By prompting users to fill information through several windows to input local parameters (e.g. cumulative and current prevalence), epidemiological parameters (e.g basic reproduction number, current social distancing interventions), vaccine parameters (e.g. vaccine efficacy, duration of immunity) and vaccine allocation (both by age groups and by vaccination status). Covid19Vaxplorer connects the user to the mathematical model and simulates, in real time, region-specific epidemics. The tool then produces key outcomes including expected numbers of deaths, hospitalizations and cases, with the possibility of simulating several scenarios of vaccine allocation at once for a side-by-side comparison.

Results

We provide two usage examples of Covid19Vaxplorer for vaccine allocation in Haiti and Afghanistan, which had as of Spring 2023 2% and 33% of their populations vaccinated, and show that for these particular examples, using available vaccine as primary series vaccinations prevents more deaths than using them as boosters. Covid19Vaxplorer allows users in 183 regions in the world to compare several vaccination strategies simultaneously, adjusting parameters to their local epidemics, infrastructure and logistics. Covid19Vaxplorer is an online, free, user-friendly tool that facilitates evidence-based decision making for vaccine distribution.

Efficacy of mRNA, adenoviral vector, and perfusion protein COVID-19 vaccines

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has a devastating impact on global populations triggered by a highly infectious viral sickness, produced by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The third major cause of mortality in the United States, following heart disease and cancer in 2020, was undoubtedly COVID-19. The centers for disease control and prevention (CDC) and the world health organization (WHO) separately developed a categorization system for differentiating new strains of SARS-CoV-2 into variants of concern (VoCs) and variants of interest (VoIs) with the continuing development of various strains SARS-CoV-2. By December 2021, five of the SARS-CoV-2 VoCs were discovered from the onset of the pandemic depending on the latest epidemiologic report by the WHO: Alpha (B.1.1.7), Beta (B.1.351), Gamma (P.1), Delta (B.1.617.2), and Omicron (B.1.1.529). Mutations in the receptor-binding domain (RBD) and n-terminal domain (NTD) have been found throughout all five identified VoCs. All strains other than the delta mutant are often found with the N501Y mutation situated on the RBD, resulting in higher binding between the spike protein and angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptors, enhanced viral adhesion, and following the entrance to host cells. The introduction of these new strains of SRAS-CoV-2 is likely to overcome the remarkable achievements gained in restricting this viral disease to the point where it is presented with remarkable vaccine developments against COVID-19 and strong worldwide mass immunization initiatives. Throughout this literature review, the effectiveness of current COVID-19 vaccines for managing and prohibiting SARS-CoV-2 strains is thoroughly described.