Network Dynamics of Innovation Processes

Productive scientists are associated with lower disruption in scientific publishing

While scientific researchers often aim for high productivity, prioritizing the quantity of publications may come at the cost of time and effort dedicated to individual research. It is thus important to examine the relationship between productivity and disruption for individual researchers. Here, we show that with the increase in the number of published papers, the average citation per paper will be higher yet the mean disruption of papers will be lower. In addition, we find that the disruption of scientists' papers may decrease when they are highly productive in a given year. The disruption of papers in each year is not determined by the total number of papers published in the author's career, but rather by the productivity of that particular year. Besides, more productive authors also tend to give references to recent and high-impact research. Our findings highlight the potential risks of pursuing productivity and aim to encourage more thoughtful career planning among scientists.

Probabilistic activity driven model of temporal simplicial networks and its application on higher-order dynamics

Network modeling characterizes the underlying principles of structural properties and is of vital significance for simulating dynamical processes in real world. However, bridging structure and dynamics is always challenging due to the multiple complexities in real systems. Here, through introducing the individual's activity rate and the possibility of group interaction, we propose a probabilistic activity-driven (PAD) model that could generate temporal higher-order networks with both power-law and high-clustering characteristics, which successfully links the two most critical structural features and a basic dynamical pattern in extensive complex systems. Surprisingly, the power-law exponents and the clustering coefficients of the aggregated PAD network could be tuned in a wide range by altering a set of model parameters. We further provide an approximation algorithm to select the proper parameters that can generate networks with given structural properties, the effectiveness of which is verified by fitting various real-world networks. Finally, we construct the co-evolution framework of the PAD model and higher-order contagion dynamics and derive the critical conditions for phase transition and bistable phenomenon using theoretical and numerical methods. Results show that tendency of participating in higher-order interactions can promote the emergence of bistability but delay the outbreak under heterogeneous activity rates. Our model provides a basic tool to reproduce complex structural properties and to study the widespread higher-order dynamics, which has great potential for applications across fields.

Distinguishing Simple and Complex Contagion Processes on Networks

Contagion processes on networks, including disease spreading, information diffusion, or social behaviors propagation, can be modeled as simple contagion, i.e., as a contagion process involving one connection at a time, or as complex contagion, in which multiple interactions are needed for a contagion event. Empirical data on spreading processes, however, even when available, do not easily allow us to uncover which of these underlying contagion mechanisms is at work. We propose a strategy to discriminate between these mechanisms upon the observation of a single instance of a spreading process. The strategy is based on the observation of the order in which network nodes are infected, and on its correlations with their local topology: these correlations differ between processes of simple contagion, processes involving threshold mechanisms, and processes driven by group interactions (i.e., by "higher-order" mechanisms). Our results improve our understanding of contagion processes and provide a method using only limited information to distinguish between several possible contagion mechanisms.

Data, measurement and empirical methods in the science of science

The advent of large-scale datasets that trace the workings of science has encouraged researchers from many different disciplinary backgrounds to turn scientific methods into science itself, cultivating a rapidly expanding 'science of science'. This Review considers this growing, multidisciplinary literature through the lens of data, measurement and empirical methods. We discuss the purposes, strengths and limitations of major empirical approaches, seeking to increase understanding of the field's diverse methodologies and expand researchers' toolkits. Overall, new empirical developments provide enormous capacity to test traditional beliefs and conceptual frameworks about science, discover factors associated with scientific productivity, predict scientific outcomes and design policies that facilitate scientific progress.

Emergent statistical laws in single-cell transcriptomic data

Large-scale data on single-cell gene expression have the potential to unravel the specific transcriptional programs of different cell types. The structure of these expression datasets suggests a similarity with several other complex systems that can be analogously described through the statistics of their basic building blocks. Transcriptomes of single cells are collections of messenger RNA abundances transcribed from a common set of genes just as books are different collections of words from a shared vocabulary, genomes of different species are specific compositions of genes belonging to evolutionary families, and ecological niches can be described by their species abundances. Following this analogy, we identify several emergent statistical laws in single-cell transcriptomic data closely similar to regularities found in linguistics, ecology, or genomics. A simple mathematical framework can be used to analyze the relations between different laws and the possible mechanisms behind their ubiquity. Importantly, treatable statistical models can be useful tools in transcriptomics to disentangle the actual biological variability from general statistical effects present in most component systems and from the consequences of the sampling process inherent to the experimental technique.

Quantifying human performance in chess

From sports to science, the recent availability of large-scale data has allowed to gain insights on the drivers of human innovation and success in a variety of domains. Here we quantify human performance in the popular game of chess by leveraging a very large dataset comprising of over 120 million games between almost 1 million players. We find that individuals encounter hot streaks of repeated success, longer for beginners than for expert players, and even longer cold streaks of unsatisfying performance. Skilled players can be distinguished from the others based on their gaming behaviour. Differences appear from the very first moves of the game, with experts tending to specialize and repeat the same openings while beginners explore and diversify more. However, experts experience a broader response repertoire, and display a deeper understanding of different variations within the same line. Over time, the opening diversity of a player tends to decrease, hinting at the development of individual playing styles. Nevertheless, we find that players are often not able to recognize their most successful openings. Overall, our work contributes to quantifying human performance in competitive settings, providing a first large-scale quantitative analysis of individual careers in chess, helping unveil the determinants separating elite from beginner performance.

Unexpected advantages of exploitation for target searches in complex networks

Exploitation universally emerges in various decision-making contexts, e.g., animals foraging, web surfing, the evolution of scientists' research topics, and our daily lives. Despite its ubiquity, exploitation, which refers to the behavior of revisiting previous experiences, has often been considered to delay the search process of finding a target. In this paper, we investigate how exploitation affects search performance by applying a non-Markovian random walk model, where a walker randomly revisits a previously visited node using long-term memory. We analytically study two broad forms of network structures, namely, (i) clique-like networks and (ii) lollipop-like networks and find that exploitation can significantly improve search performance in lollipop-like networks, whereas it hinders target search in clique-like networks. Moreover, we numerically verify that exploitation can reduce the time needed to fully explore the underlying networks using 550 diverse real-world networks. Based on the analytic result, we define the lollipop-likeness of a network and observe a positive relationship between the advantage of exploitation and lollipop-likeness.

Significant hot hand effect in the game of cricket

We investigate the predictability and persistence of individual and team performance (hot-hand effect) by analyzing the complete recorded history of international cricket. We introduce an original temporal representation of performance streaks, which is suitable to be modelled as a self-exciting point process. We confirm the presence of predictability and hot-hands across the individual performance and the absence of the same in team performance and game outcome. Thus, Cricket is a game of skill for individuals and a game of chance for the teams. Our study contributes to recent historiographical debates concerning the presence of persistence in individual and collective productivity and success. The introduction of several metrics and methods can be useful to test and exploit clustering of performance in the study of human behavior and design of algorithms for predicting success.

Twitter as an innovation process with damping effect

In the existing literature about innovation processes, the proposed models often satisfy the Heaps' law, regarding the rate at which novelties appear, and the Zipf's law, that states a power law behavior for the frequency distribution of the elements. However, there are empirical cases far from showing a pure power law behavior and such a deviation is mostly present for elements with high frequencies. We explain this phenomenon by means of a suitable "damping" effect in the probability of a repetition of an old element. We introduce an extremely general model, whose key element is the update function, that can be suitably chosen in order to reproduce the behaviour exhibited by the empirical data. In particular, we explicit the update function for some Twitter data sets and show great performances with respect to Heaps' law and, above all, with respect to the fitting of the frequency-rank plots for low and high frequencies. Moreover, we also give other examples of update functions, that are able to reproduce the behaviors empirically observed in other contexts.

Current trends in computer aided drug design and a highlight of drugs discovered via computational techniques: A review

Computer-aided drug design (CADD) is one of the pivotal approaches to contemporary pre-clinical drug discovery, and various computational techniques and software programs are typically used in combination, in a bid to achieve the desired outcome. Several approved drugs have been developed with the aid of CADD. On SciFinder®, we evaluated more than 600 publications through systematic searching and refining, using the terms, virtual screening; software methods; computational studies and publication year, in order to obtain data concerning particular aspects of CADD. The primary focus of this review was on the databases screened, virtual screening and/or molecular docking software program used. Furthermore, we evaluated the studies that subsequently performed molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and we reviewed the software programs applied, the application of density functional theory (DFT) calculations and experimental assays. To represent the latest trends, the most recent data obtained was between 2015 and 2020, consequently the most frequently employed techniques and software programs were recorded. Among these, the ZINC database was the most widely preferred with an average use of 31.2%. Structure-based virtual screening (SBVS) was the most prominently used type of virtual screening and it accounted for an average of 57.6%, with AutoDock being the preferred virtual screening/molecular docking program with 41.8% usage. Following the screening process, 38.5% of the studies performed MD simulations to complement the virtual screening and GROMACS with 39.3% usage, was the popular MD software program. Among the computational techniques, DFT was the least applied whereby it only accounts for 0.02% average use. An average of 36.5% of the studies included reports on experimental evaluations following virtual screening. Ultimately, since the inception and application of CADD in pre-clinical drug discovery, more than 70 approved drugs have been discovered, and this number is steadily increasing over time.

Simplicial SIRS epidemic models with nonlinear incidence rates

Mathematical epidemiology that describes the complex dynamics on social networks has become increasingly popular. However, a few methods have tackled the problem of coupling network topology with complex incidence mechanisms. Here, we propose a simplicial susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) model to investigate the epidemic spreading via combining the network higher-order structure with a nonlinear incidence rate. A network-based social system is reshaped to a simplicial complex, in which the spreading or infection occurs with nonlinear reinforcement characterized by the simplex dimensions. Compared with the previous simplicial susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) models, the proposed SIRS model can not only capture the discontinuous transition and the bistability of a complex system but also capture the periodic phenomenon of epidemic outbreaks. More significantly, the two thresholds associated with the bistable region and the critical value of the reinforcement factor are derived. We further analyze the stability of equilibrium points of the proposed model and obtain the condition of existence of the bistable states and limit cycles. This work expands the simplicial SIS models to SIRS models and sheds light on a novel perspective of combining the higher-order structure of complex systems with nonlinear incidence rates.

Preferential model for the evolution of pass networks in ball sports

We propose a theoretical model to evaluate the temporally evolving ball-passing networks whose number of edges increases with time. The model incorporates a preferential selection of edges that chooses an edge based on its frequency of selection. The results are in good agreement with the corresponding ball-passing networks of association football, basketball, and rugby matches, and they enable a quantitative comparison of the passing activity among different teams or ball sports.

Interacting Discovery Processes on Complex Networks

Innovation is the driving force of human progress. Recent urn models reproduce well the dynamics through which the discovery of a novelty may trigger further ones, in an expanding space of opportunities, but neglect the effects of social interactions. Here we focus on the mechanisms of collective exploration, and we propose a model in which many urns, representing different explorers, are coupled through the links of a social network and exploit opportunities coming from their contacts. We study different network structures showing, both analytically and numerically, that the pace of discovery of an explorer depends on its centrality in the social network. Our model sheds light on the role that social structures play in discovery processes.

Evolution and transformation of early modern cosmological knowledge: a network study

We investigated the evolution and transformation of scientific knowledge in the early modern period, analyzing more than 350 different editions of textbooks used for teaching astronomy in European universities from the late fifteenth century to mid-seventeenth century. These historical sources constitute the Sphaera Corpus. By examining different semantic relations among individual parts of each edition on record, we built a multiplex network consisting of six layers, as well as the aggregated network built from the superposition of all the layers. The network analysis reveals the emergence of five different communities. The contribution of each layer in shaping the communities and the properties of each community are studied. The most influential books in the corpus are found by calculating the average age of all the out-going and in-coming links for each book. A small group of editions is identified as a transmitter of knowledge as they bridge past knowledge to the future through a long temporal interval. Our analysis, moreover, identifies the most impactful editions. These books introduce new knowledge that is then adopted by almost all the books published afterwards until the end of the whole period of study. The historical research on the content of the identified books, as an empirical test, finally corroborates the results of all our analyses.

The growth and form of knowledge networks by kinesthetic curiosity

Throughout life, we might seek a calling, companions, skills, entertainment, truth, self-knowledge, beauty, and edification. The practice of curiosity can be viewed as an extended and open-ended search for valuable information with hidden identity and location in a complex space of interconnected information. Despite its importance, curiosity has been challenging to computationally model because the practice of curiosity often flourishes without specific goals, external reward, or immediate feedback. Here, we show how network science, statistical physics, and philosophy can be integrated into an approach that coheres with and expands the psychological taxonomies of specific-diversive and perceptual-epistemic curiosity. Using this interdisciplinary approach, we distill functional modes of curious information seeking as searching movements in information space. The kinesthetic model of curiosity offers a vibrant counterpart to the deliberative predictions of model-based reinforcement learning. In doing so, this model unearths new computational opportunities for identifying what makes curiosity curious.

A generalized linear threshold model for an improved description of the spreading dynamics

Many spreading processes in our real-life can be considered as a complex contagion, and the linear threshold (LT) model is often applied as a very representative model for this mechanism. Despite its intensive usage, the LT model suffers several limitations in describing the time evolution of the spreading. First, the discrete-time step that captures the speed of the spreading is vaguely defined. Second, the synchronous updating rule makes the nodes infected in batches, which cannot take individual differences into account. Finally, the LT model is incompatible with existing models for the simple contagion. Here, we consider a generalized linear threshold (GLT) model for the continuous-time stochastic complex contagion process that can be efficiently implemented by the Gillespie algorithm. The time in this model has a clear mathematical definition, and the updating order is rigidly defined. We find that the traditional LT model systematically underestimates the spreading speed and the randomness in the spreading sequence order. We also show that the GLT model works seamlessly with the susceptible-infected or susceptible-infected-recovered model. One can easily combine them to model a hybrid spreading process in which simple contagion accumulates the critical mass for the complex contagion that leads to the global cascades. Overall, the GLT model we proposed can be a useful tool to study complex contagion, especially when studying the time evolution of the spreading.

The evolution of knowledge within and across fields in modern physics

The exchange of knowledge across different areas and disciplines plays a key role in the process of knowledge creation, and can stimulate innovation and the emergence of new fields. We develop here a quantitative framework to extract significant dependencies among scientific disciplines and turn them into a time-varying network whose nodes are the different fields, while the weighted links represent the flow of knowledge from one field to another at a given period of time. Drawing on a comprehensive data set on scientific production in modern physics and on the patterns of citations between articles published in the various fields in the last 30 years, we are then able to map, over time, how the ideas developed in a given field in a certain time period have influenced later discoveries in the same field or in other fields. The analysis of knowledge flows internal to each field displays a remarkable variety of temporal behaviours, with some fields of physics showing to be more self-referential than others. The temporal networks of knowledge exchanges across fields reveal cases of one field continuously absorbing knowledge from another field in the entire observed period, pairs of fields mutually influencing each other, but also cases of evolution from absorbing to mutual or even to back-nurture behaviors.

Contributions of modern network science to the cognitive sciences: revisiting research spirals of representation and process

Modelling the structure of cognitive systems is a central goal of the cognitive sciences-a goal that has greatly benefitted from the application of network science approaches. This paper provides an overview of how network science has been applied to the cognitive sciences, with a specific focus on the two research 'spirals' of cognitive sciences related to the representation and processes of the human mind. For each spiral, we first review classic papers in the psychological sciences that have drawn on graph-theoretic ideas or frameworks before the advent of modern network science approaches. We then discuss how current research in these areas has been shaped by modern network science, which provides the mathematical framework and methodological tools for psychologists to (i) represent cognitive network structure and (ii) investigate and model the psychological processes that occur in these cognitive networks. Finally, we briefly comment on the future of, and the challenges facing, cognitive network science.

Taylor's Law in Innovation Processes

Taylor's law quantifies the scaling properties of the fluctuations of the number of innovations occurring in open systems. Urn-based modeling schemes have already proven to be effective in modeling this complex behaviour. Here, we present analytical estimations of Taylor's law exponents in such models, by leveraging on their representation in terms of triangular urn models. We also highlight the correspondence of these models with Poisson-Dirichlet processes and demonstrate how a non-trivial Taylor's law exponent is a kind of universal feature in systems related to human activities. We base this result on the analysis of four collections of data generated by human activity: (i) written language (from a Gutenberg corpus); (ii) an online music website (Last.fm); (iii) Twitter hashtags; (iv) an online collaborative tagging system (Del.icio.us). While Taylor's law observed in the last two datasets agrees with the plain model predictions, we need to introduce a generalization to fully characterize the behaviour of the first two datasets, where temporal correlations are possibly more relevant. We suggest that Taylor's law is a fundamental complement to Zipf's and Heaps' laws in unveiling the complex dynamical processes underlying the evolution of systems featuring innovation.

The Language of Innovation

Predicting innovation is a peculiar problem in data science. Following its definition, an innovation is always a never-seen-before event, leaving no room for traditional supervised learning approaches. Here we propose a strategy to address the problem in the context of innovative patents, by defining innovations as never-seen-before associations of technologies and exploiting self-supervised learning techniques. We think of technological codes present in patents as a vocabulary and the whole technological corpus as written in a specific, evolving language. We leverage such structure with techniques borrowed from Natural Language Processing by embedding technologies in a high dimensional euclidean space where relative positions are representative of learned semantics. Proximity in this space is an effective predictor of specific innovation events, that outperforms a wide range of standard link-prediction metrics. The success of patented innovations follows a complex dynamics characterized by different patterns which we analyze in details with specific examples. The methods proposed in this paper provide a completely new way of understanding and forecasting innovation, by tackling it from a revealing perspective and opening interesting scenarios for a number of applications and further analytic approaches.

The Diversity-Innovation Paradox in Science

Prior work finds a diversity paradox: Diversity breeds innovation, yet underrepresented groups that diversify organizations have less successful careers within them. Does the diversity paradox hold for scientists as well? We study this by utilizing a near-complete population of ∼1.2 million US doctoral recipients from 1977 to 2015 and following their careers into publishing and faculty positions. We use text analysis and machine learning to answer a series of questions: How do we detect scientific innovations? Are underrepresented groups more likely to generate scientific innovations? And are the innovations of underrepresented groups adopted and rewarded? Our analyses show that underrepresented groups produce higher rates of scientific novelty. However, their novel contributions are devalued and discounted: For example, novel contributions by gender and racial minorities are taken up by other scholars at lower rates than novel contributions by gender and racial majorities, and equally impactful contributions of gender and racial minorities are less likely to result in successful scientific careers than for majority groups. These results suggest there may be unwarranted reproduction of stratification in academic careers that discounts diversity's role in innovation and partly explains the underrepresentation of some groups in academia.

Extreme events in stochastic transport on networks

Extreme events are emergent phenomena in multi-particle transport processes on complex networks. In practice, such events could range from power blackouts to call drops in cellular networks to traffic congestion on roads. All the earlier studies of extreme events on complex networks had focused only on the nodal events. If random walks are used to model the transport process on a network, it is known that degree of the nodes determines the extreme event properties. In contrast, in this work, it is shown that extreme events on the edges display a distinct set of properties from that of the nodes. It is analytically shown that the probability for the occurrence of extreme events on an edge is independent of the degree of the nodes linked by the edge and is dependent only on the total number of edges on the network and the number of walkers on it. Further, it is also demonstrated that non-trivial correlations can exist between the extreme events on the nodes and the edges. These results are in agreement with the numerical simulations on synthetic and real-life networks.

Predicting research trends with semantic and neural networks with an application in quantum physics

The vast and growing number of publications in all disciplines of science cannot be comprehended by a single human researcher. As a consequence, researchers have to specialize in narrow subdisciplines, which makes it challenging to uncover scientific connections beyond the own field of research. Thus, access to structured knowledge from a large corpus of publications could help push the frontiers of science. Here, we demonstrate a method to build a semantic network from published scientific literature, which we call SemNet We use SemNet to predict future trends in research and to inspire personalized and surprising seeds of ideas in science. We apply it in the discipline of quantum physics, which has seen an unprecedented growth of activity in recent years. In SemNet, scientific knowledge is represented as an evolving network using the content of 750,000 scientific papers published since 1919. The nodes of the network correspond to physical concepts, and links between two nodes are drawn when two concepts are concurrently studied in research articles. We identify influential and prize-winning research topics from the past inside SemNet, thus confirming that it stores useful semantic knowledge. We train a neural network using states of SemNet of the past to predict future developments in quantum physics and confirm high-quality predictions using historic data. Using network theoretical tools, we can suggest personalized, out-of-the-box ideas by identifying pairs of concepts, which have unique and extremal semantic network properties. Finally, we consider possible future developments and implications of our findings.

Multilayer modeling of adoption dynamics in energy demand management

Due to the emergence of new technologies, the whole electricity system is undergoing transformations on a scale and pace never observed before. The decentralization of energy resources and the smart grid have forced utility services to rethink their relationships with customers. Demand response (DR) seeks to adjust the demand for power instead of adjusting the supply. However, DR business models rely on customer participation and can only be effective when large numbers of customers in close geographic vicinity, e.g., connected to the same transformer, opt in. Here, we introduce a model for the dynamics of service adoption on a two-layer multiplex network: the layer of social interactions among customers and the power-grid layer connecting the households. While the adoption process-based on peer-to-peer communication-runs on the social layer, the time-dependent recovery rate of the nodes depends on the states of their neighbors on the power-grid layer, making an infected node surrounded by infectious ones less keen to recover. Numerical simulations of the model on synthetic and real-world networks show that a strong local influence of the customers' actions leads to a discontinuous transition where either none or all the nodes in the network are infected, depending on the infection rate and social pressure to adopt. We find that clusters of early adopters act as points of high local pressure, helping maintaining adopters, and facilitating the eventual adoption of all nodes. This suggests direct marketing strategies on how to efficiently establish and maintain new technologies such as DR schemes.

Efficient team structures in an open-ended cooperative creativity experiment

Creativity is progressively acknowledged as the main driver for progress in all sectors of humankind's activities: arts, science, technology, business, and social policies. Nowadays, many creative processes rely on many actors collectively contributing to an outcome. The same is true when groups of people collaborate in the solution of a complex problem. Despite the critical importance of collective actions in human endeavors, few works have tackled this topic extensively and quantitatively. Here we report about an experimental setting to single out some of the key determinants of efficient teams committed to an open-ended creative task. In this experiment, dynamically forming teams were challenged to create several artworks using LEGO bricks. The growth rate of the artworks, the dynamical network of social interactions, and the interaction patterns between the participants and the artworks were monitored in parallel. The experiment revealed that larger working teams are building at faster rates and that higher commitment leads to higher growth rates. Even more importantly, there exists an optimal number of weak ties in the social network of creators that maximizes the growth rate. Finally, the presence of influencers within the working team dramatically enhances the building efficiency. The generality of the approach makes it suitable for application in very different settings, both physical and online, whenever a creative collective outcome is required.

Increasing trend of scientists to switch between topics

Despite persistent efforts in understanding the creativity of scientists over different career stages, little is known about the underlying dynamics of research topic switching that drives innovation. Here, we analyze the publication records of individual scientists, aiming to quantify their topic switching dynamics and its influence. We find that the co-citing network of papers of a scientist exhibits a clear community structure where each major community represents a research topic. Our analysis suggests that scientists have a narrow distribution of number of topics. However, researchers nowadays switch more frequently between topics than those in the early days. We also find that high switching probability in early career is associated with low overall productivity, yet with high overall productivity in latter career. Interestingly, the average citation per paper, however, is in all career stages negatively correlated with the switching probability. We propose a model that can explain the main observed features.

Simplicial models of social contagion

Complex networks have been successfully used to describe the spread of diseases in populations of interacting individuals. Conversely, pairwise interactions are often not enough to characterize social contagion processes such as opinion formation or the adoption of novelties, where complex mechanisms of influence and reinforcement are at work. Here we introduce a higher-order model of social contagion in which a social system is represented by a simplicial complex and contagion can occur through interactions in groups of different sizes. Numerical simulations of the model on both empirical and synthetic simplicial complexes highlight the emergence of novel phenomena such as a discontinuous transition induced by higher-order interactions. We show analytically that the transition is discontinuous and that a bistable region appears where healthy and endemic states co-exist. Our results help explain why critical masses are required to initiate social changes and contribute to the understanding of higher-order interactions in complex systems.

Large-scale analysis of micro-level citation patterns reveals nuanced selection criteria

The analysis of citations to scientific publications has become a tool that is used in the evaluation of a researcher's work; especially in the face of an ever-increasing production volume^1-6. Despite the acknowledged shortcomings of citation analysis and the ongoing debate on the meaning of citations^7,8, citations are still primarily viewed as endorsements and as indicators of the influence of the cited reference, regardless of the context of the citation. However, only recently has attention^9,10 been given to the connection between contextual information and the success of citing and cited papers, primarily because of the lack of extensive databases that cover both types of metadata. Here we address this issue by studying the usage of citations throughout the full text of 156,558 articles published by the Public Library of Science (PLoS), and by tracing their bibliometric history from among 60 million records obtained from the Web of Science. We find universal patterns of variation in the usage of citations across paper sections¹¹. Notably, we find differences in microlevel citation patterns that were dependent on the ultimate impact of the citing paper itself; publications from high-impact groups tend to cite younger references, as well as more very young and better-cited references. Our study provides a quantitative approach to addressing the long-standing issue that not all citations count the same.

How much can we influence the rate of innovation?

Innovation is how organizations drive technological change, but the rate of innovation can vary considerably from one technological domain to another. To understand why some domains flourish more rapidly than others, we studied a model of innovation in which products are built out of components. We derived a conservation law for the average size of the product space as more components are acquired and tested our insights using historical data from language, gastronomy, mixed drinks, and technology. We find that the innovation rate is partly influenceable and partly predetermined, similar to how traits are partly set by nurture and partly set by nature. The predetermined aspect is fixed solely by the distribution of the complexity of products in each domain. Different distributions can produce markedly different innovation rates. This helps explain why some domains show faster innovation than others, despite similar efforts to accelerate them. Our insights also give a quantitative perspective on lean methodology, frugal innovation, and mechanisms to encourage tinkering.

Zipf's, Heaps' and Taylor's Laws are Determined by the Expansion into the Adjacent Possible

Zipf’s, Heaps’ and Taylor’s laws are ubiquitous in many different systems where innovation processes are at play. Together, they represent a compelling set of stylized facts regarding the overall statistics, the innovation rate and the scaling of fluctuations for systems as diverse as written texts and cities, ecological systems and stock markets. Many modeling schemes have been proposed in literature to explain those laws, but only recently a modeling framework has been introduced that accounts for the emergence of those laws without deducing the emergence of one of the laws from the others or without ad hoc assumptions. This modeling framework is based on the concept of adjacent possible space and its key feature of being dynamically restructured while its boundaries get explored, i.e., conditional to the occurrence of novel events. Here, we illustrate this approach and show how this simple modeling framework, instantiated through a modified Pólya’s urn model, is able to reproduce Zipf’s, Heaps’ and Taylor’s laws within a unique self-consistent scheme. In addition, the same modeling scheme embraces other less common evolutionary laws (Hoppe’s model and Dirichlet processes) as particular cases.

The dynamics of knowledge acquisition via self-learning in complex networks

Studies regarding knowledge organization and acquisition are of great importance to understand areas related to science and technology. A common way to model the relationship between different concepts is through complex networks. In such representations, networks' nodes store knowledge and edges represent their relationships. Several studies that considered this type of structure and knowledge acquisition dynamics employed one or more agents to discover node concepts by walking on the network. In this study, we investigate a different type of dynamics adopting a single node as the "network brain." Such a brain represents a range of real systems such as the information about the environment that is acquired by a person and is stored in the brain. To store the discovered information in a specific node, the agents walk on the network and return to the brain. We propose three different dynamics and test them on several network models and on a real system, which is formed by journal articles and their respective citations. The results revealed that, according to the adopted walking models, the efficiency of self-knowledge acquisition has only a weak dependency on topology and search strategy.

Zipf and Heaps laws from dependency structures in component systems

Complex natural and technological systems can be considered, on a coarse-grained level, as assemblies of elementary components: for example, genomes as sets of genes or texts as sets of words. On one hand, the joint occurrence of components emerges from architectural and specific constraints in such systems. On the other hand, general regularities may unify different systems, such as the broadly studied Zipf and Heaps laws, respectively concerning the distribution of component frequencies and their number as a function of system size. Dependency structures (i.e., directed networks encoding the dependency relations between the components in a system) were proposed recently as a possible organizing principles underlying some of the regularities observed. However, the consequences of this assumption were explored only in binary component systems, where solely the presence or absence of components is considered, and multiple copies of the same component are not allowed. Here we consider a simple model that generates, from a given ensemble of dependency structures, a statistical ensemble of sets of components, allowing for components to appear with any multiplicity. Our model is a minimal extension that is memoryless and therefore accessible to analytical calculations. A mean-field analytical approach (analogous to the "Zipfian ensemble" in the linguistics literature) captures the relevant laws describing the component statistics as we show by comparison with numerical computations. In particular, we recover a power-law Zipf rank plot, with a set of core components, and a Heaps law displaying three consecutive regimes (linear, sublinear, and saturating) that we characterize quantitatively.

Technology networks: the autocatalytic origins of innovation

We analyse the autocatalytic structure of technological networks and evaluate its significance for the dynamics of innovation patenting. To this aim, we define a directed network of technological fields based on the International Patents Classification, in which a source node is connected to a receiver node via a link if patenting activity in the source field anticipates patents in the receiver field in the same region more frequently than we would expect at random. We show that the evolution of the technology network is compatible with the presence of a growing autocatalytic structure, i.e. a portion of the network in which technological fields mutually benefit from being connected to one another. We further show that technological fields in the core of the autocatalytic set display greater fitness, i.e. they tend to appear in a greater number of patents, thus suggesting the presence of positive spillovers as well as positive reinforcement. Finally, we observe that core shifts take place whereby different groups of technology fields alternate within the autocatalytic structure; this points to the importance of recombinant innovation taking place between close as well as distant fields of the hierarchical classification of technological fields.