Endemicity of chytridiomycosis features pathogen overdispersion

Antigenic strain diversity predicts different biogeographic patterns of maintenance and decline of antimalarial drug resistance

The establishment and spread of antimalarial drug resistance vary drastically across different biogeographic regions. Though most infections occur in sub-Saharan Africa, resistant strains often emerge in low-transmission regions. Existing models on resistance evolution lack consensus on the relationship between transmission intensity and drug resistance, possibly due to overlooking the feedback between antigenic diversity, host immunity, and selection for resistance. To address this, we developed a novel compartmental model that tracks sensitive and resistant parasite strains, as well as the host dynamics of generalized and antigen-specific immunity. Our results show a negative correlation between parasite prevalence and resistance frequency, regardless of resistance cost or efficacy. Validation using chloroquine-resistant marker data supports this trend. Post discontinuation of drugs, resistance remains high in low-diversity, low-transmission regions, while it steadily decreases in high-diversity, high-transmission regions. Our study underscores the critical role of malaria strain diversity in the biogeographic patterns of resistance evolution.

Antigenic strain diversity predicts different biogeographic patterns of maintenance and decline of anti-malarial drug resistance

The establishment and spread of anti-malarial drug resistance vary drastically across different biogeographic regions. Though most infections occur in Sub-Saharan Africa, resistant strains often emerge in low-transmission regions. Existing models on resistance evolution lack consensus on the relationship between transmission intensity and drug resistance, possibly due to overlooking the feedback between antigenic diversity, host immunity, and selection for resistance. To address this, we developed a novel compartmental model that tracks sensitive and resistant parasite strains, as well as the host dynamics of generalized and antigen-specific immunity. Our results show a negative correlation between parasite prevalence and resistance frequency, regardless of resistance cost or efficacy. Validation using chloroquine-resistant marker data supports this trend. Post discontinuation of drugs, resistance remains high in low-diversity, low-transmission regions, while it steadily decreases in high-diversity, high-transmission regions. Our study underscores the critical role of malaria strain diversity in the biogeographic patterns of resistance evolution.

Recovered frog populations coexist with endemic Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis despite load-dependent mortality

Novel infectious diseases, particularly those caused by fungal pathogens, pose considerable risks to global biodiversity. The amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Bd) has demonstrated the scale of the threat, having caused the greatest recorded loss of vertebrate biodiversity attributable to a pathogen. Despite catastrophic declines on several continents, many affected species have experienced population recoveries after epidemics. However, the potential ongoing threat of endemic Bd in these recovered or recovering populations is still poorly understood. We investigated the threat of endemic Bd to frog populations that recovered after initial precipitous declines, focusing on the endangered rainforest frog Mixophyes fleayi. We conducted extensive field surveys over 4 years at three independent sites in eastern Australia. First, we compared Bd infection prevalence and infection intensities within frog communities to reveal species-specific infection patterns. Then, we analyzed mark-recapture data of M. fleayi to estimate the impact of Bd infection intensity on apparent mortality rates and Bd infection dynamics. We found that M. fleayi had lower infection intensities than sympatric frogs across the three sites, and cleared infections at higher rates than they gained infections throughout the study period. By incorporating time-varying individual infection intensities, we show that healthy M. fleayi populations persist despite increased apparent mortality associated with infrequent high Bd loads. Infection dynamics were influenced by environmental conditions, with Bd prevalence, infection intensity, and rates of gaining infection associated with lower temperatures and increased rainfall. However, mortality remained constant year-round despite these fluctuations in Bd infections, suggesting major mortality events did not occur over the study period. Together, our results demonstrate that while Bd is still a potential threat to recovered populations of M. fleayi, high rates of clearing infections and generally low average infection loads likely minimize mortality caused by Bd. Our results are consistent with pathogen resistance contributing to the coexistence of M. fleayi with endemic Bd. We emphasize the importance of incorporating infection intensity into disease models rather than infection status alone. Similar population and infection dynamics likely exist within other recovered amphibian-Bd systems around the globe, promising longer-term persistence in the face of endemic chytridiomycosis.

Do predators keep prey healthy or make them sicker? A meta-analysis

Ecological theory suggests that predators can either keep prey populations healthy by reducing parasite burdens or alternatively, increase parasitism in prey. To quantify the overall magnitude and direction of the effect of predation on parasitism in prey observed in practice, we conducted a meta-analysis of 47 empirical studies. We also examined how study attributes, including parasite type and life cycle, habitat type, study design, and whether predators were able to directly consume prey contributed to variation in the predator-prey-parasite interaction. We found that the overall effect of predation on parasitism differed between parasites and parasitoids and that whether consumptive effects were present, and whether a predator was a non-host spreader of parasites, were the most important traits predicting the parasite response. Our results suggest that the mechanistic basis of predator-prey interactions strongly influences the effects of predators on parasites and that these effects, although context dependent, are predictable.

Living with the pathogenic chytrid fungus: Exploring mechanisms of coexistence in the harlequin toad Atelopus cruciger

Chytridiomycosis, a disease caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), has been linked with the disappearance of amphibian populations worldwide. Harlequin toads (Atelopus) are among the most severely impacted genera. Two species are already considered extinct and most of the others are at high risk of extinction. The recent rediscovery of harlequin toad populations coexisting with Bd suggest that the pathogen can maintain enzootic cycles at some locations. The mechanisms promoting coexistence, however, are not well understood. We explore the dynamics of Bd infection in harlequin toads by modeling a two-stage host population with transmission through environmental reservoirs. Simulations showed that variations in the recruitment of adults and the persistence of zoospores in the environment were more likely to drive shifts between extinction and coexistence than changes in the vulnerability of toads to infection with Bd. These findings highlight the need to identify mechanisms for assuring adult recruitment or minimizing transmission from potential reservoirs, biotic or abiotic, in recovering populations.

Last-come, best served? Mosquito biting order and Plasmodium transmission

A pervasive characteristic of parasite infections is their tendency to be overdispersed. Understanding the mechanisms underlying this overdispersed distribution is of key importance as it may impact the transmission dynamics of the pathogen. Although multiple factors ranging from environmental stochasticity to inter-individual heterogeneity may explain parasite overdispersion, parasite infection is also overdispersed in an inbred host population maintained under laboratory conditions, suggesting that other mechanisms are at play. Here, we show that the aggregated distribution of malaria parasites within mosquito vectors is partially explained by a temporal heterogeneity in parasite infectivity triggered by the bites of mosquitoes. Parasite transmission tripled between the mosquito's first and last blood feed in a period of only 3 h. Surprisingly, the increase in transmission is not associated with an increase in parasite investment in production of the transmissible stage. Overall, we highlight that Plasmodium is capable of responding to the bites of mosquitoes to increase its own transmission at a much faster pace than initially thought and that this is partly responsible for overdispersed distribution of infection. We discuss the underlying mechanisms as well as the broader implications of this plastic response for the epidemiology of malaria.

Mechanisms underlying host persistence following amphibian disease emergence determine appropriate management strategies

Emerging infectious diseases have caused many species declines, changes in communities and even extinctions. There are also many species that persist following devastating declines due to disease. The broad mechanisms that enable host persistence following declines include evolution of resistance or tolerance, changes in immunity and behaviour, compensatory recruitment, pathogen attenuation, environmental refugia, density-dependent transmission and changes in community composition. Here we examine the case of chytridiomycosis, the most important wildlife disease of the past century. We review the full breadth of mechanisms allowing host persistence, and synthesise research on host, pathogen, environmental and community factors driving persistence following chytridiomycosis-related declines and overview the current evidence and the information required to support each mechanism. We found that for most species the mechanisms facilitating persistence have not been identified. We illustrate how the mechanisms that drive long-term host population dynamics determine the most effective conservation management strategies. Therefore, understanding mechanisms of host persistence is important because many species continue to be threatened by disease, some of which will require intervention. The conceptual framework we describe is broadly applicable to other novel disease systems.

Connectivity over a disease risk gradient enables recovery of rainforest frogs

Chytridiomycosis has been a key driver of global frog declines and extinctions, particularly for high-altitude populations across Australia and the Americas. While recent evidence shows some species are recovering, the extent of such recoveries and the mechanisms underpinning them remain poorly resolved. We surveyed the historical latitudinal and elevational range of four Australian rainforest frogs that disappeared from upland sites between 1989 and 1994 to establish their contemporary distribution and elevational limits, and investigate factors affecting population recovery. Five rainforest streams were surveyed from mountain-base to summit (30 sites in total), with swabs collected from the target species (Litoria dayi, L. nannotis, L. rheocola, and L. serrata) to determine their infection status, and data loggers deployed to measure microclimatic variation across the elevational gradient. Infection probability increased with elevation and canopy cover as it was tightly and inversely correlated with stream-side air temperature. Occupancy patterns suggest varying responses to this disease threat gradient. Two species, L. rheocola and L. serrata, were found over their full historical elevational range (≥1,000 m above sea level [asl]), while L. dayi was not detected above 400 m (formerly known up to 900 m asl) and L. nannotis was not detected above 800 m (formerly known up to 1,200 m asl). Site occupancy probability was negatively related to predicted infection prevalence for L. dayi, L. nannotis, and L. rheocola, but not L. serrata, which appears to now tolerate high fungal burdens. This study highlights the importance of environmental refuges and connectivity across disease risk gradients for the persistence and natural recovery of frogs susceptible to chytridiomycosis. Likewise, in documenting both interspecific variation in recovery rates and intraspecific differences between sites, this study suggests interactions between disease threats and host selection exist that could be manipulated. For example, translocations may be warranted where connectivity is poor or the increase in disease risk is too steep to allow recolonization, combined with assisted selection or use of founders from populations that have already undergone natural selection.

Amphibian fungal panzootic causes catastrophic and ongoing loss of biodiversity

Anthropogenic trade and development have broken down dispersal barriers, facilitating the spread of diseases that threaten Earth's biodiversity. We present a global, quantitative assessment of the amphibian chytridiomycosis panzootic, one of the most impactful examples of disease spread, and demonstrate its role in the decline of at least 501 amphibian species over the past half-century, including 90 presumed extinctions. The effects of chytridiomycosis have been greatest in large-bodied, range-restricted anurans in wet climates in the Americas and Australia. Declines peaked in the 1980s, and only 12% of declined species show signs of recovery, whereas 39% are experiencing ongoing decline. There is risk of further chytridiomycosis outbreaks in new areas. The chytridiomycosis panzootic represents the greatest recorded loss of biodiversity attributable to a disease.

Susceptibility of frogs to chytridiomycosis correlates with increased levels of immunomodulatory serotonin in the skin

Chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), is a skin disease responsible for the global decline of amphibians. Frog species and populations can vary in susceptibility, but this phenomenon remains poorly understood. Here, we investigated serotonin in the skin of infected and uninfected frogs. In more susceptible frog populations, skin serotonin rose with increasing infection intensity, but decreased in later stages of the disease. The more resistant population maintained a basal level of skin serotonin. Serotonin inhibited both Bd sporangial growth and Jurkat lymphocyte proliferation in vitro. However, serotonin accumulates in skin granular glands, and this compartmentalisation may prevent inhibition of Bd growth in vivo. We suggest that skin serotonin increases in susceptible frogs due to pathogen excretion of precursor tryptophan, but that resistant frogs are able to control the levels of serotonin. Overall, the immunosuppressive effects of serotonin may contribute to the susceptibility of frogs to chytridiomycosis.

Review of the Amphibian Immune Response to Chytridiomycosis, and Future Directions

The fungal skin disease, chytridiomycosis (caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis and B. salamandrivorans), has caused amphibian declines and extinctions globally since its emergence. Characterizing the host immune response to chytridiomycosis has been a focus of study with the aim of disease mitigation. However, many aspects of the innate and adaptive arms of this response are still poorly understood, likely due to the wide range of species' responses to infection. In this paper we provide an overview of expected immunological responses (with inference based on amphibian and mammalian immunology), together with a synthesis of current knowledge about these responses for the amphibian-chytridiomycosis system. We structure our review around four key immune stages: (1) the naïve immunocompetent state, (2) immune defenses that are always present (constitutive defenses), (3) mechanisms for recognition of a pathogen threat and innate immune defenses, and (4) adaptive immune responses. We also evaluate the current hot topics of immunosuppression and immunopathology in chytridiomycosis, and discuss their respective roles in pathogenesis. Our synthesis reveals that susceptibility to chytridiomycosis is likely to be multifactorial. Susceptible amphibians appear to have ineffective constitutive and innate defenses, and a late-stage response characterized by immunopathology and Bd-induced suppression of lymphocyte responses. Overall, we identify substantial gaps in current knowledge, particularly concerning the entire innate immune response (mechanisms of initial pathogen detection and possible immunoevasion by Bd, degree of activation and efficacy of the innate immune response, the unexpected absence of innate leukocyte infiltration, and the cause and role of late-stage immunopathology in pathogenesis). There are also gaps concerning most of the adaptive immune system (the relative importance of B and T cell responses for pathogen clearance, the capacity and extent of immunological memory, and specific mechanisms of pathogen-induced immunosuppression). Improving our capacity for amphibian immunological research will require selection of an appropriate Bd-susceptible model species, the development of taxon-specific affinity reagents and cell lines for functional assays, and the application of a suite of conventional and emerging immunological methods. Despite current knowledge gaps, immunological research remains a promising avenue for amphibian conservation management.

Age- and size-dependent resistance to chytridiomycosis in the invasive cane toad Rhinella marina

In Australia, the cane toad Rhinella marina and chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) are examples of invasive species that have had dramatic impacts on native fauna. However, little is known about the interaction between Bd and cane toads. We aimed to explore the interaction of these 2 species in 3 parts. First, we collated data from the literature on Bd infection in wild cane toads. Second, we tested the susceptibility of recently metamorphosed cane toads to Bd infection. Finally, we modelled the distribution of the 2 species in Australia to identify where they overlap and, therefore, might interact. Through our data collation, we found that adult cane toads are infrequently infected and do not carry high infection burdens; however, our infection experiment showed that metamorphs are highly susceptible to infection and disease, but resistance appears to increase with increasing toad size. Niche modelling revealed overlapping distributions and the potential for cane toads to be affected by chytridiomycosis in the wild. While Bd can cause mortality in small juveniles in the laboratory, warm microhabitats used by wild toads likely prevent infection, and furthermore, high mortality of juveniles is unlikely to affect the adult populations because they are highly fecund. However, to demonstrate the impact of Bd on wild cane toad populations, targeted field studies are required to assess (1) the overall impact of chytridiomycosis on recruitment especially in cooler areas more favourable for Bd and (2) whether cane toad juveniles can amplify Bd exposure of native amphibian species in these areas.

Evolutionary rescue in a host-pathogen system results in coexistence not clearance

The evolutionary rescue of host populations may prevent extinction from novel pathogens. However, the conditions that facilitate rapid evolution of hosts, in particular the population variation in host susceptibility, and the effects of host evolution in response to pathogens on population outcomes remain largely unknown. We constructed an individual-based model to determine the relationships between genetic variation in host susceptibility and population persistence in an amphibian-fungal pathogen (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) system. We found that host populations can rapidly evolve reduced susceptibility to a novel pathogen and that this rapid evolution led to a 71-fold increase in the likelihood of host-pathogen coexistence. However, the increased rates of coexistence came at a cost to host populations; fewer populations cleared infection, population sizes were depressed, and neutral genetic diversity was lost. Larger adult host population sizes and greater adaptive genetic variation prior to the onset of pathogen introduction led to substantially reduced rates of extinction, suggesting that populations with these characteristics should be prioritized for conservation when species are threatened by novel infectious diseases.

The Certainty of Uncertainty: Potential Sources of Bias and Imprecision in Disease Ecology Studies

Wildlife diseases have important implications for wildlife and human health, the preservation of biodiversity and the resilience of ecosystems. However, understanding disease dynamics and the impacts of pathogens in wild populations is challenging because these complex systems can rarely, if ever, be observed without error. Uncertainty in disease ecology studies is commonly defined in terms of either heterogeneity in detectability (due to variation in the probability of encountering, capturing, or detecting individuals in their natural habitat) or uncertainty in disease state assignment (due to misclassification errors or incomplete information). In reality, however, uncertainty in disease ecology studies extends beyond these components of observation error and can arise from multiple varied processes, each of which can lead to bias and a lack of precision in parameter estimates. Here, we present an inventory of the sources of potential uncertainty in studies that attempt to quantify disease-relevant parameters from wild populations (e.g., prevalence, incidence, transmission rates, force of infection, risk of infection, persistence times, and disease-induced impacts). We show that uncertainty can arise via processes pertaining to aspects of the disease system, the study design, the methods used to study the system, and the state of knowledge of the system, and that uncertainties generated via one process can propagate through to others because of interactions between the numerous biological, methodological and environmental factors at play. We show that many of these sources of uncertainty may not be immediately apparent to researchers (for example, unidentified crypticity among vectors, hosts or pathogens, a mismatch between the temporal scale of sampling and disease dynamics, demographic or social misclassification), and thus have received comparatively little consideration in the literature to date. Finally, we discuss the type of bias or imprecision introduced by these varied sources of uncertainty and briefly present appropriate sampling and analytical methods to account for, or minimise, their influence on estimates of disease-relevant parameters. This review should assist researchers and practitioners to navigate the pitfalls of uncertainty in wildlife disease ecology studies.

Fragile coexistence of a global chytrid pathogen with amphibian populations is mediated by environment and demography

Unravelling the multiple interacting drivers of host-pathogen coexistence is crucial in understanding how an apparently stable state of endemism may shift towards an epidemic and lead to biodiversity loss. Here, we investigate the apparent coexistence of the global amphibian pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) with Bombina variegata populations in The Netherlands over a 7-year period. We used a multi-season mark-recapture dataset and assessed potential drivers of coexistence (individual condition, environmental mediation and demographic compensation) at the individual and population levels. We show that even in a situation with a clear cost incurred by endemic Bd, population sizes remain largely stable. Current environmental conditions and an over-dispersed pathogen load probably stabilize disease dynamics, but as higher temperatures increase infection probability, changing environmental conditions, for example a climate-change-driven rise in temperature, could unbalance the current fragile host-pathogen equilibrium. Understanding the proximate mechanisms of such environmental mediation and of site-specific differences in infection dynamics can provide vital information for mitigation actions.

Cryptic disease-induced mortality may cause host extinction in an apparently stable host-parasite system

The decline of wildlife populations due to emerging infectious disease often shows a common pattern: the parasite invades a naive host population, producing epidemic disease and a population decline, sometimes with extirpation. Some susceptible host populations can survive the epidemic phase and persist with endemic parasitic infection. Understanding host-parasite dynamics leading to persistence of the system is imperative to adequately inform conservation practice. Here we combine field data, statistical and mathematical modelling to explore the dynamics of the apparently stable Rhinoderma darwinii-Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) system. Our results indicate that Bd-induced population extirpation may occur even in the absence of epidemics and where parasite prevalence is relatively low. These empirical findings are consistent with previous theoretical predictions showing that highly pathogenic parasites are able to regulate host populations even at extremely low prevalence, highlighting that disease threats should be investigated as a cause of population declines even in the absence of an overt increase in mortality.

Using a Bayesian network to clarify areas requiring research in a host-pathogen system

Bayesian network analyses can be used to interactively change the strength of effect of variables in a model to explore complex relationships in new ways. In doing so, they allow one to identify influential nodes that are not well studied empirically so that future research can be prioritized. We identified relationships in host and pathogen biology to examine disease-driven declines of amphibians associated with amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). We constructed a Bayesian network consisting of behavioral, genetic, physiological, and environmental variables that influence disease and used them to predict host population trends. We varied the impacts of specific variables in the model to reveal factors with the most influence on host population trend. The behavior of the nodes (the way in which the variables probabilistically responded to changes in states of the parents, which are the nodes or variables that directly influenced them in the graphical model) was consistent with published results. The frog population had a 49% probability of decline when all states were set at their original values, and this probability increased when body temperatures were cold, the immune system was not suppressing infection, and the ambient environment was conducive to growth of B. dendrobatidis. These findings suggest the construction of our model reflected the complex relationships characteristic of host-pathogen interactions. Changes to climatic variables alone did not strongly influence the probability of population decline, which suggests that climate interacts with other factors such as the capacity of the frog immune system to suppress disease. Changes to the adaptive immune system and disease reservoirs had a large effect on the population trend, but there was little empirical information available for model construction. Our model inputs can be used as a base to examine other systems, and our results show that such analyses are useful tools for reviewing existing literature, identifying links poorly supported by evidence, and understanding complexities in emerging infectious-disease systems.

Epizootic to enzootic transition of a fungal disease in tropical Andean frogs: Are surviving species still susceptible?

The fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), which causes the disease chytridiomycosis, has been linked to catastrophic amphibian declines throughout the world. Amphibians differ in their vulnerability to chytridiomycosis; some species experience epizootics followed by collapse while others exhibit stable host/pathogen dynamics where most amphibian hosts survive in the presence of Bd (e.g., in the enzootic state). Little is known about the factors that drive the transition between the two disease states within a community, or whether populations of species that survived the initial epizootic are stable, yet this information is essential for conservation and theory. Our study focuses on a diverse Peruvian amphibian community that experienced a Bd-caused collapse. We explore host/Bd dynamics of eight surviving species a decade after the mass extinction by using population level disease metrics and Bd-susceptibility trials. We found that three of the eight species continue to be susceptible to Bd, and that their populations are declining. Only one species is growing in numbers and it was non-susceptible in our trials. Our study suggests that some species remain vulnerable to Bd and exhibit ongoing population declines in enzootic systems where Bd-host dynamics are assumed to be stable.

Resistance, tolerance and environmental transmission dynamics determine host extinction risk in a load-dependent amphibian disease

While disease-induced extinction is generally considered rare, a number of recently emerging infectious diseases with load-dependent pathology have led to extinction in wildlife populations. Transmission is a critical factor affecting disease-induced extinction, but the relative importance of transmission compared to load-dependent host resistance and tolerance is currently unknown. Using a combination of models and experiments on an amphibian species suffering extirpations from the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), we show that while transmission from an environmental Bd reservoir increased the ability of Bd to invade an amphibian population and the extinction risk of that population, Bd-induced extinction dynamics were far more sensitive to host resistance and tolerance than to Bd transmission. We demonstrate that this is a general result for load-dependent pathogens, where non-linear resistance and tolerance functions can interact such that small changes in these functions lead to drastic changes in extinction dynamics.