Projected changes in prevailing winds for transatlantic migratory birds under global warming

Flyway-scale GPS tracking reveals migratory routes and key stopover and non-breeding locations of lesser yellowlegs

Many populations of long-distance migrant shorebirds are declining rapidly. Since the 1970s, the lesser yellowlegs (Tringa flavipes) has experienced a pronounced reduction in abundance of ~63%. The potential causes of the species' decline are complex and interrelated. Understanding the timing of migration, seasonal routes, and important stopover and non-breeding locations used by this species will aid in directing conservation planning to address potential threats. During 2018-2022, we tracked 118 adult lesser yellowlegs using GPS satellite tags deployed on birds from five breeding and two migratory stopover locations spanning the boreal forest of North America from Alaska to Eastern Canada. Our objectives were to identify migratory routes, quantify migratory connectivity, and describe key stopover and non-breeding locations. We also evaluated predictors of southbound migratory departure date and migration distance. Individuals tagged in Alaska and Central Canada followed similar southbound migratory routes, stopping to refuel in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America, whereas birds tagged in Eastern Canada completed multi-day transoceanic flights covering distances of >4000 km across the Atlantic between North and South America. Upon reaching their non-breeding locations, lesser yellowlegs populations overlapped, resulting in weak migratory connectivity. Sex and population origin were significantly associated with the timing of migratory departure from breeding locations, and body mass at the time of GPS-tag deployment was the best predictor of southbound migratory distance. Our findings suggest that lesser yellowlegs travel long distances and traverse numerous political boundaries each year, and breeding location likely has the greatest influence on migratory routes and therefore the threats birds experience during migration. Further, the species' dependence on wetlands in agricultural landscapes during migration and the non-breeding period may make them vulnerable to threats related to agricultural practices, such as pesticide exposure.

The annual cycle for whimbrel populations using the Western Atlantic Flyway

Many long-distance migratory birds use habitats that are scattered across continents and confront hazards throughout the annual cycle that may be population-limiting. Identifying where and when populations spend their time is fundamental to effective management. We tracked 34 adult whimbrels (Numenius phaeopus) from two breeding populations (Mackenzie Delta and Hudson Bay) with satellite transmitters to document the structure of their annual cycles. The two populations differed in their use of migratory pathways and their seasonal schedules. Mackenzie Delta whimbrels made long (22,800 km) loop migrations with different autumn and spring routes. Hudson Bay whimbrels made shorter (17,500 km) and more direct migrations along the same route during autumn and spring. The two populations overlap on the winter grounds and within one spring staging area. Mackenzie Delta whimbrels left the breeding ground, arrived on winter grounds, left winter grounds and arrived on spring staging areas earlier compared to whimbrels from Hudson Bay. For both populations, migration speed was significantly higher during spring compared to autumn migration. Faster migration was achieved by having fewer and shorter stopovers en route. We identified five migratory staging areas including four that were used during autumn and two that were used during spring. Whimbrels tracked for multiple years had high (98%) fidelity to staging areas. We documented dozens of locations where birds stopped for short periods along nearly all migration routes. The consistent use of very few staging areas suggests that these areas are integral to the annual cycle of both populations and have high conservation value.

Flyway-scale analysis reveals that the timing of migration in wading birds is becoming later

Understanding the implications of climate change for migratory animals is paramount for establishing how best to conserve them. A large body of evidence suggests that birds are migrating earlier in response to rising temperatures, but many studies focus on single populations of model species.Migratory patterns at large spatial scales may differ from those occurring in single populations, for example because of individuals dispersing outside of study areas. Furthermore, understanding phenological trends across species is vital because we need a holistic understanding of how climate change affects wildlife, especially as rates of temperature change vary globally.The life cycles of migratory wading birds cover vast latitudinal gradients, making them particularly susceptible to climate change and, therefore, ideal model organisms for understanding its effects. Here, we implement a novel application of changepoint detection analysis to investigate changes in the timing of migration in waders at a flyway scale using a thirteen-year citizen science dataset (eBird) and determine the influence of changes in weather conditions on large-scale migratory patterns.In contrast to most previous research, our results suggest that migration is getting later in both spring and autumn. We show that rates of change were faster in spring than autumn in both the Afro-Palearctic and Nearctic flyways, but that weather conditions in autumn, not in spring, predicted temporal changes in the corresponding season. Birds migrated earlier in autumn when temperatures increased rapidly, and later with increasing headwinds.One possible explanation for our results is that migration is becoming later due to northward range shifts, which means that a higher proportion of birds travel greater distances and therefore take longer to reach their destinations. Our findings underline the importance of considering spatial scale when investigating changes in the phenology of migratory bird species.

Broad-Scale Weather Patterns Encountered during Flight Influence Landbird Stopover Distributions

The dynamic weather conditions that migrating birds experience during flight likely influence where they stop to rest and refuel, particularly after navigating inhospitable terrain or large water bodies, but effects of weather on stopover patterns remain poorly studied. We examined the influence of broad-scale weather conditions encountered by nocturnally migrating Nearctic-Neotropical birds during northward flight over the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) on subsequent coastal stopover distributions. We categorized nightly weather patterns using historic maps and quantified region-wide densities of birds in stopover habitat with data collected by 10 weather surveillance radars from 2008 to 2015. We found spring weather patterns over the GOM were most often favorable for migrating birds, with winds assisting northward flight, and document regional stopover patterns in response to specific unfavorable weather conditions. For example, Midwest Continental High is characterized by strong northerly winds over the western GOM, resulting in high-density concentrations of migrants along the immediate coastlines of Texas and Louisiana. We show, for the first time, that broad-scale weather experienced during flight influences when and where birds stop to rest and refuel. Linking synoptic weather patterns encountered during flight with stopover distributions contributes to the emerging macro-ecological understanding of bird migration, which is critical to consider in systems undergoing rapid human-induced changes.

Autumn bird migration phenology: A potpourri of wind, precipitation and temperature effects

Climate change has caused a clear and univocal trend towards advancement in spring phenology. Changes in autumn phenology are much more diverse, with advancement, delays, and 'no change' all occurring frequently. For migratory birds, patterns in autumn migration phenology trends have been identified based on ecological and life-history traits. Explaining interspecific variation has nevertheless been challenging, and the underlying mechanisms have remained elusive. Radar studies on non-species-specific autumn migration intensity have repeatedly suggested that there are strong links with weather. In long-term species-specific studies, the variance in autumn migration phenology explained by weather has, nevertheless, been rather low, or a relationship was even lacking entirely. We performed a spatially explicit time window analysis of weather effects on mean autumn passage of four trans-Saharan and six intra-European passerines to gain insights into this apparent contradiction. We analysed data from standardized daily captures at the Heligoland island constant-effort site (Germany), in combination with gridded daily temperature, precipitation and wind data over a 55-year period (1960-2014), across northern Europe. Weather variables at the breeding and stopover grounds explained up to 80% of the species-specific interannual variability in autumn passage. Overall, wind conditions were most important. For intra-European migrants, wind was even twice as important as either temperature or precipitation, and the pattern also held in terms of relative contributions of each climate variable to the temporal trends in autumn phenology. For the trans-Saharan migrants, however, the pattern of relative trend contributions was completely reversed. Temperature and precipitation had strong trend contributions, while wind conditions had only a minor impact because they did not show any strong temporal trends. As such, understanding species-specific effects of climate on autumn phenology not only provides unique insights into each species' ecology but also how these effects shape the observed interspecific heterogeneity in autumn phenological trends.

Adverse wind conditions during northward Sahara crossings increase the in-flight mortality of Black-tailed Godwits

Long‐distance migratory flights are predicted to be associated with higher mortality rates when individuals encounter adverse weather conditions. However, directly connecting environmental conditions experienced in‐flight with the survival of migrants has proven difficult. We studied how the in‐flight mortality of 53 satellite‐tagged Black‐tailed Godwits (Limosa limosa limosa) during 132 crossings of the Sahara Desert, a major geographical barrier along their migration route between The Netherlands and sub‐Saharan Africa, is correlated with the experienced wind conditions and departure date during both southward and northward migration. We show that godwits experienced higher wind assistance during southward crossings, which seems to reflect local prevailing trade winds. Critically, we found that fatal northward crossings (15 deaths during 61 crossings) were associated with adverse wind conditions. Wind conditions during migration can thus directly influence vital rates. Changing wind conditions associated with global change may thus profoundly influence the costs of long‐distance migration in the future.

Long-distance migratory shorebirds travel faster towards their breeding grounds, but fly faster post-breeding

Long-distance migrants are assumed to be more time-limited during the pre-breeding season compared to the post-breeding season. Although breeding-related time constraints may be absent post-breeding, additional factors such as predation risk could lead to time constraints that were previously underestimated. By using an automated radio telemetry system, we compared pre- and post-breeding movements of long-distance migrant shorebirds on a continent-wide scale. From 2014 to 2016, we deployed radio transmitters on 1,937 individuals of 4 shorebird species at 13 sites distributed across North America. Following theoretical predictions, all species migrated faster during the pre-breeding season, compared to the post-breeding season. These differences in migration speed between seasons were attributable primarily to longer stopover durations in the post-breeding season. In contrast, and counter to our expectations, all species had higher airspeeds during the post-breeding season, even after accounting for seasonal differences in wind. Arriving at the breeding grounds in good body condition is beneficial for survival and reproductive success and this energetic constraint might explain why airspeeds are not maximised in the pre-breeding season. We show that the higher airspeeds in the post-breeding season precede a wave of avian predators, which could suggest that migrant shorebirds show predation-minimizing behaviour during the post-breeding season. Our results reaffirm the important role of time constraints during northward migration and suggest that both energy and predation-risk constrain migratory behaviour during the post-breeding season.

Vagrant birds as a dispersal vector in transoceanic range expansion of vascular plants

Birds are thought to be important vectors underlying the disjunct distribution patterns of some terrestrial biota. Here, we investigate the role of birds in the colonisation by Ochetophila trinervis (Rhamnaceae), a vascular plant from the southern Andes, of sub-Antarctic Marion Island. The location of O. trinervis on the island far from human activities, in combination with a reconstruction of island visitors' travel history, precludes an anthropogenic introduction. Notably, three bird species occurring in the southern Andes inland have been observed as vagrants on Marion Island, with the barn swallow Hirundo rustica as the most common one. This vagrant displays long-distance migratory behaviour, eats seeds when insects are in short supply, and has started breeding in South America since the 1980s. Since naturalised O. trinervis has never been found outside the southern Andes and its diaspores are incapable of surviving in seawater or dispersing by wind, a natural avian dispersal event from the Andes to Marion Island, a distance of >7500 km, remains the only probable explanation. Although one self-incompatible shrub seems doomed to remain solitary, its mere establishment on a Southern Ocean island demonstrates the potential of vagrancy as a driver of extreme long-distance dispersal of terrestrial biota.

Projected changes in wind assistance under climate change for nocturnally migrating bird populations

Current climate models and observations indicate that atmospheric circulation is being affected by global climate change. To assess how these changes may affect nocturnally migrating bird populations, we need to determine how current patterns of wind assistance at migration altitudes will be enhanced or reduced under future atmospheric conditions. Here, we use information compiled from 143 weather surveillance radars stations within the contiguous United States to estimate the daily altitude, density, and direction of nocturnal migration during the spring and autumn. We intersected this information with wind projections to estimate how wind assistance is expected to change during this century at current migration altitudes. The prevailing westerlies at midlatitudes are projected to increase in strength during spring migration and decrease in strength to a lesser degree during autumn migration. Southerly winds will increase in strength across the continent during both spring and autumn migration, with the strongest gains occurring in the center of the continent. Wind assistance is projected to increase across the central (0.44 m/s; 10.1%) and eastern portions of the continent (0.32 m/s; 9.6%) during spring migration, and wind assistance is projected to decrease within the central (0.32 m/s; 19.3%) and eastern portions of the continent (0.17 m/s; 6.6%) during autumn migration. Thus, across a broad portion of the continent where migration intensity is greatest, the efficiency of nocturnal migration is projected to increase in the spring and decrease in the autumn, potentially affecting time and energy expenditures for many migratory bird species. These findings highlight the importance of placing climate change projections within a relevant ecological context informed through empirical observations, and the need to consider the possibility that climate change may generate both positive and negative implications for natural systems.

Local meteorological conditions reroute a migration

For migrating animals, realized migration routes and timing emerge from hundreds or thousands of movement decisions made along migration routes. Local weather conditions along migration routes continually influence these decisions, and even relatively small changes in en route weather may cumulatively result in major shifts in migration patterns. Here, we analysed satellite tracking data to score a discrete navigation decision by a large migratory bird as it navigated a high-latitude, 5000 m elevation mountain range to understand how those navigational decisions changed under different weather conditions. We showed that wind conditions in particular areas along the migration pathway drove a navigational decision to reroute a migration; conditions encountered predictably resulted in migrants routing either north or south of the mountain range. With abiotic conditions continuing to change globally, simple decisions, such as the one described here, might additively emerge into new, very different migration routes.

Long-distance migratory birds threatened by multiple independent risks from global change

Many species migrate long distances annually between their breeding and wintering areas1. While global change affects both ranges, impact assessments have generally focused on breeding ranges and ignore how environmental changes influence migrants across geographic regions and the annual cycle2,3. Using range maps and species distribution models, we quantified the risk of summer and winter range loss and migration distance increase from future climate and land cover changes on long-distance migratory birds of the Holarctic (n=715). Risk estimates are largely independent of each other and magnitudes vary geographically. If seasonal range losses and increased migration distances are not considered, we strongly underestimate the number of threatened species by 18-49% and the overall magnitude of risk for 17-50% species. Many of the analysed species facing multiple global change risks are not listed by IUCN as threatened or near threatened. Neglecting seasonal migration in impact assessments could thus seriously misguide species' conservation.

Seasonal abundance and survival of North America's migratory avifauna determined by weather radar

Avian migration is one of Earth's largest processes of biomass transport, involving billions of birds. We estimated continental biomass flows of nocturnal avian migrants across the contiguous United States using a network of 143 weather radars. We show that, relative to biomass leaving in autumn, proportionally more biomass returned in spring across the southern United States than across the northern United States. Neotropical migrants apparently achieved higher survival during the combined migration and non-breeding period, despite an average three- to fourfold longer migration distance, compared with a more northern assemblage of mostly temperate-wintering migrants. Additional mortality expected with longer migration distances was probably offset by high survival in the (sub)tropics. Nearctic-Neotropical migrants relying on a 'higher survivorship' life-history strategy may be particularly sensitive to variations in survival on the overwintering grounds, highlighting the need to identify and conserve important non-breeding habitats.

Atmospheric conditions create freeways, detours and tailbacks for migrating birds

The extraordinary adaptations of birds to contend with atmospheric conditions during their migratory flights have captivated ecologists for decades. During the 21st century technological advances have sparked a revival of research into the influence of weather on migrating birds. Using biologging technology, flight behaviour is measured across entire flyways, weather radar networks quantify large-scale migratory fluxes, citizen scientists gather observations of migrant birds and mechanistic models are used to simulate migration in dynamic aerial environments. In this review, we first introduce the most relevant microscale, mesoscale and synoptic scale atmospheric phenomena from the point of view of a migrating bird. We then provide an overview of the individual responses of migrant birds (when, where and how to fly) in relation to these phenomena. We explore the cumulative impact of individual responses to weather during migration, and the consequences thereof for populations and migratory systems. In general, individual birds seem to have a much more flexible response to weather than previously thought, but we also note similarities in migratory behaviour across taxa. We propose various avenues for future research through which we expect to derive more fundamental insights into the influence of weather on the evolution of migratory behaviour and the life-history, population dynamics and species distributions of migrant birds.