A phenology model for tropical species that flower multiple times each year

Effects of ENSO events on the intensity, seasonality, and diversity of reproductive phenology of Miconia (Melastomataceae) species in tropical rainforest

We evaluated the phenology and reproductive phenological diversity of three sympatric species of Miconia in a gallery forest in the Chapada Diamantina mountains, Bahia, Brazil. The reproductive phenophases (bud, flower, immature fruit, and mature fruit) of M. alborufescens (N=38), M. holosericea (N=46), and M. prasina (N=44) were evaluated monthly, between June/2008 and June/2015. The Fournier index was used to assess the intensities of the reproductive phenophases; synchrony and seasonality were analyzed using circular statistics and the Rayleigh (Z) test. The Frideman and Wilcoxon tests were used to verify interannual variations in phenological patterns. Reproductive phenological diversity was measured by calculating the Shannon-Wiener index; ANOVA tested possible differences in the means of diversity among the different years. The reproductive phenophases of the studied Miconia species occurred sequentially (M. alborufescens, then M. holoserica, followed by M. prasina), in the transition between the dry and rainy seasons, with little overlap between them. In general, the species showed seasonal and synchronic phenological patterns, with some variations that coincided with El Niño and/or La Niña events, e.g., demonstrating changes in the periodicity, synchrony, and intensity of their phenophases. The intensity of fruiting, for example, showed increases during La Niña years. Reproductive phenological diversity appears to respond to climate changes resulting from El Niño events and periods of prolonged drought, with high Shannon-Wiener index values. The results also suggest that the effects of global climatic phenomena (El Niño and La Niña) that alter regional climatic seasonality can also cause variations in the reproductive phenological rhythms of the Miconia species studied.

Seasonality of reproduction in an ever-wet lowland tropical forest in Amazonian Ecuador

Flowering and fruiting phenology have been infrequently studied in the ever-wet hyperdiverse lowland forests of northwestern equatorial Amazonía. These Neotropical forests are typically called aseasonal with reference to climate because they are ever-wet, and it is often assumed they are also aseasonal with respect to phenology. The physiological limits to plant reproduction imposed by water and light availability are difficult to disentangle in seasonal forests because these variables are often temporally correlated, and both are rarely studied together, challenging our understanding of their relative importance as drivers of reproduction. Here we report on the first long-term study (18 years) of flowering and fruiting phenology in a diverse equatorial forest, Yasuní in eastern Ecuador, and the first to include a full suite of on-site monthly climate data. Using twice monthly censuses of 200 traps and >1000 species, we determined whether reproduction at Yasuní is seasonal at the community and species levels and analyzed the relationships between environmental variables and phenology. We also tested the hypothesis that seasonality in phenology, if present, is driven primarily by irradiance. Both the community- and species-level measures demonstrated strong reproductive seasonality at Yasuní. Flowering peaked in September-November and fruiting peaked in March-April, with a strong annual signal for both phenophases. Irradiance and rainfall were also highly seasonal, even though no month on average experienced drought (a month with <100 mm rainfall). Flowering was positively correlated with current or near-current irradiance, supporting our hypothesis that the extra energy available during the period of peak irradiance drives the seasonality of flowering at Yasuní. As Yasuní is representative of lowland ever-wet equatorial forests of northwestern Amazonía, we expect that reproductive phenology will be strongly seasonal throughout this region.

New directions in tropical phenology

Earth's most speciose biomes are in the tropics, yet tropical plant phenology remains poorly understood. Tropical phenological data are comparatively scarce and viewed through the lens of a 'temperate phenological paradigm' expecting phenological traits to respond to strong, predictably annual shifts in climate (e.g., between subfreezing and frost-free periods). Digitized herbarium data greatly expand existing phenological data for tropical plants; and circular data, statistics, and models are more appropriate for analyzing tropical (and temperate) phenological datasets. Phylogenetic information, which remains seldom applied in phenological investigations, provides new insights into phenological responses of large groups of related species to climate. Consistent combined use of herbarium data, circular statistical distributions, and robust phylogenies will rapidly advance our understanding of tropical - and temperate - phenology.

Impacts of climate change on reproductive phenology in tropical rainforests of Southeast Asia

In humid forests in Southeast Asia, many species from dozens of plant families flower gregariously and fruit synchronously at irregular multi-year intervals^1-4. Little is known about how climate change will impact these community-wide mass reproductive events. Here, we perform a comprehensive analysis of reproductive phenology and its environmental drivers based on a monthly reproductive phenology record from 210 species in 41 families in Peninsular Malaysia. We find that the proportion of flowering and fruiting species decreased from 1976 to 2010. Using a phenology model, we find that 57% of species in the Dipterocarpaceae family respond to both drought and low-temperature cues for flowering. We show that low-temperature flowering cues will become less available in the future in the RCP2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, leading to decreased flowering opportunities of these species in a wide region from Thailand to the island of Borneo. Our results highlight the vulnerability of and variability in phenological responses across species in tropical ecosystems that differ from temperate and boreal biomes.

Environmental variables drive phenological events of anemocoric plants and enhance diaspore dispersal potential: A new wind-based approach

Phenological studies of Brazilian savanna vegetation have described a generalized phenological pattern for all species, mainly based on rainfall and temperature. Few studies have considered wind as an explanatory factor; abiotic factors may impact differently on phenophases, and one phenophase may influence the performance of another. Thus, we aim to describe the phenological patterns of five anemocoric plant species (Aspidosperma tomentosum, Dalbergia miscolobium, Kielmeyera coriacea, Peixotoa tomentosa and Qualea multiflora) in the face of different climatic conditions, mainly evaluating the effects of wind on the ripe diaspore. We addressed three main questions: (1) What is the phenological behavior of each of these five anemocoric species in a seasonal environment? (2) Which climatic variables best explain each phenophase? (3) Does the dispersal of ripe diaspores peak shortly after deciduousness? We found that (i) our focal species showed similar phenological patterns, except for the floral bud and flower phenophases of two species (A. tomentosum and P. tomentosa), and the young fruit phase; (ii) each abiotic variable has a specific level of influence for each phenophase, but the most important variables were rainfall and wind speed; and (iii) the dispersal peak of ripe diaspores occurred shortly after deciduousness, and when plants had fewer leaves. We conclude that the phenological patterns of these five anemocoric plants are similar, but that the patterns observed are not necessarily those described for Cerrado species. Additionally, we found that wind is an important factor in the expression of specific phenophases, and that the performance of some phenological events can be influenced by others, especially diaspore dispersal.

Allometric constraints and competition enable the simulation of size structure and carbon fluxes in a dynamic vegetation model of tropical forests (LM3PPA-TV)

Tropical forests are a key determinant of the functioning of the Earth system, but remain a major source of uncertainty in carbon cycle models and climate change projections. In this study, we present an updated land model (LM3PPA-TV) to improve the representation of tropical forest structure and dynamics in Earth system models (ESMs). The development and parameterization of LM3PPA-TV drew on extensive datasets on tropical tree traits and long-term field censuses from Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. The model defines a new plant functional type (PFT) based on the characteristics of shade-tolerant, tropical tree species, implements a new growth allocation scheme based on realistic tree allometries, incorporates hydraulic constraints on biomass accumulation, and features a new compartment for tree branches and branch fall dynamics. Simulation experiments reproduced observed diurnal and seasonal patterns in stand-level carbon and water fluxes, as well as mean canopy and understory tree growth rates, tree size distributions, and stand-level biomass on BCI. Simulations at multiple sites captured considerable variation in biomass and size structure across the tropical forest biome, including observed responses to precipitation and temperature. Model experiments suggested a major role of water limitation in controlling geographic variation forest biomass and structure. However, the failure to simulate tropical forests under extreme conditions and the systematic underestimation of forest biomass in Paleotropical locations highlighted the need to incorporate variation in hydraulic traits and multiple PFTs that capture the distinct floristic composition across tropical domains. The continued pressure on tropical forests from global change demands models which are able to simulate alternative successional pathways and their pace to recovery. LM3PPA-TV provides a tool to investigate geographic variation in tropical forests and a benchmark to continue improving the representation of tropical forests dynamics and their carbon storage potential in ESMs.

Spatiotemporal Patterns and Phenology of Tropical Vegetation Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence across Brazilian Biomes Using Satellite Observations

Solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) has been empirically linked to gross primary productivity (GPP) in multiple ecosystems and is thus a promising tool to address the current uncertainties in carbon fluxes at ecosystem to continental scales. However, studies utilizing satellite-measured SIF in South America have concentrated on the Amazonian tropical forest, while SIF in other regions and vegetation classes remain uninvestigated. We examined three years of Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) SIF data for vegetation classes within and across the six Brazilian biomes (Amazon, Atlantic Forest, Caatinga, Cerrado, Pampa, and Pantanal) to answer the following: (1) how does satellite-measured SIF differ? (2) What is the relationship (strength and direction) of satellite-measured SIF with canopy temperature (Tcan), air temperature (Tair), and vapor pressure deficit (VPD)? (3) How does the phenology of satellite-measured SIF (duration and amplitude of seasonal integrated SIF) compare? Our analysis shows that OCO-2 captures a significantly higher mean SIF with lower variability in the Amazon and lower mean SIF with higher variability in the Caatinga compared to other biomes. OCO-2 also distinguishes the mean SIF of vegetation types within biomes, showing that evergreen broadleaf (EBF) mean SIF is significantly higher than other vegetation classes (deciduous broadleaf (DBF), grassland (GRA), savannas (SAV), and woody savannas (WSAV)) in all biomes. We show that the strengths and directions of correlations of OCO-2 mean SIF to Tcan, Tair, and VPD largely cluster by biome: negative in the Caatinga and Cerrado, positive in the Pampa, and no correlations were found in the Pantanal, while results were mixed for the Amazon and Atlantic Forest. We found mean SIF most strongly correlated with VPD in most vegetation classes in most biomes, followed by Tcan. Seasonality from time series analysis reveals that OCO-2 SIF measurements capture important differences in the seasonal timing of SIF for different classes, details masked when only examining mean SIF differences. We found that OCO-2 captured the highest base integrated SIF and lowest seasonal pulse integrated SIF in the Amazon for all vegetation classes, indicating continuous photosynthetic activity in the Amazon exceeds other biomes, but with small seasonal increases. Surprisingly, Pantanal EBF SIF had the highest total integrated SIF of all classes in all biomes due to a large seasonal pulse. Additionally, the length of seasons only accounts for about 30% of variability in total integrated SIF; thus, integrated SIF is likely captures differences in photosynthetic activity separate from structural differences. Our results show that satellite measurements of SIF can distinguish important functioning and phenological differences in vegetation classes and thus has the potential to improve our understanding of productivity and seasonality in the tropics.