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Mulla AJ, Denis V, Lin CH, Fong CL, Shiu JH, Nozawa Y. Natural coral recovery despite negative population growth. Ecology 2024:e4368. [PMID: 39106878 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.4368] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2023] [Revised: 03/27/2024] [Accepted: 05/17/2024] [Indexed: 08/09/2024]
Abstract
Demographic processes that ensure the recovery and resilience of marine populations are critical as climate change sends an increasing proportion on a trajectory of decline. Yet for some populations, recovery potential remains high. We conducted annual monitoring over 9 years (2012-2020) to assess the recovery of coral populations belonging to the genus Pocillopora. These populations experienced a catastrophic collapse following a severe typhoon in 2009. From the start of the monitoring period, high initial recruitment led to the establishment of a juvenile population that rapidly transitioned to sexually mature adults, which dominated the population within 6 years after the disturbance. As a result, coral cover increased from 1.1% to 20.2% during this time. To identify key demographic drivers of recovery and population growth rates (λ), we applied kernel-resampled integral projection models (IPMs), constructing eight successive models to examine annual change. IPMs were able to capture reproductive traits as key demographic drivers over the initial 3 years, while individual growth was a continuous key demographic driver throughout the entire monitoring period. IPMs further detected a pulse of reproductive output subsequent to two further Category 5 typhoon events during the monitoring period, exemplifying key mechanisms of resilience for coral populations impacted by disturbance. Despite rapid recovery, (i.e., increased coral cover, individual colony growth, low mortality), IPMs estimated predominantly negative values of λ, indicating a declining population. Indeed, while λ translates to a change in the number of individuals, the recovery of coral populations can also be driven by an increase in the size of surviving colonies. Our results illustrate that accumulating long-term data on historical dynamics and applying IPMs to extract demographic drivers are crucial for future predictions that are based on comprehensive and robust understandings of ecological change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aziz J Mulla
- Biodiversity Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
- Biodiversity Program, Taiwan International Graduate Program, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
- Department of Life Science, National Taiwan Normal University School, Taipei, Taiwan
- Institute of Oceanography, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Vianney Denis
- Institute of Oceanography, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Che-Hung Lin
- Biodiversity Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
- Department of Aquatic Biosciences, National Chiayi University, Chiayi City, Taiwan
| | - Chia-Ling Fong
- Biodiversity Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
- Biodiversity Program, Taiwan International Graduate Program, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
- Department of Life Science, National Taiwan Normal University School, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Jia-Ho Shiu
- Biodiversity Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
- General Research Service Center, National Pingtung University of Science and Technology, Pingtung, Taiwan
| | - Yoko Nozawa
- Biodiversity Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
- Biodiversity Program, Taiwan International Graduate Program, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
- Department of Life Science, National Taiwan Normal University School, Taipei, Taiwan
- Tropical Biosphere Research Center, University of the Ryukyus, Okinawa, Japan
- Department of Marine Science, Faculty of Fisheries and Marine Science, Universitas Diponegoro, Semarang, Indonesia
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2
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Margalef-Marrase J, Molowny-Horas R, Jaime L, Lloret F. Modelling the dynamics of Pinus sylvestris forests after a die-off event under climate change scenarios. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 856:159063. [PMID: 36202357 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159063] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2022] [Revised: 09/22/2022] [Accepted: 09/23/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
In recent decades, die-off events in Pinus sylvestris populations have increased. The causes of these phenomena, which are usually related to local and regional extreme hot droughts, have been extensively investigated from a physiological viewpoint. However, the consequences of die-off process in terms of demography and vegetation dynamics have been less thoroughly addressed. Here, we projected P. sylvestris plot dynamics after a die-off event, under climate change scenarios, considering also their early demographic stages (i.e., seedlings, saplings and ingrowth from the sapling to adult class), to assess the resilience of P. sylvestris populations after such events. We used Integral Projection Models (IPMs) to project future plot structure under current climate, and under RCP4.5 and RCP8.0 climate scenarios, using climatic suitability - extracted from Species Distribution Models - as a covariable in the estimations of vital rates over time. Field data feeding IPMs were obtained from two successive surveys, at the end of the die-off event (2013) and four years later (2017), undertaken on populations situated across the P. sylvestris range of distribution in Catalonia (NE Spain). Plots affected by die-off experienced a loss of large trees, which causes that basal area, tree diameter and tree density will remain lower for decades relative to unaffected plots. After the event, this situation is partially counterbalanced in affected plots by a greater increase in basal area and seedling recruitment into tree stage, thus promoting resilience. However, resilience is delayed under the climate-change scenarios with warmer and drier conditions involving additional physiological stress, due to a reduced abundance of seedlings and a smaller plot basal area. The study shows lagged effect of drought-induced die-off events on forest structure, also revealing stabilizing mechanisms, such as recruitment and tree growth release, which enhance resilience. However, these mechanisms would be jeopardized by oncoming regional warming.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Roberto Molowny-Horas
- Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), Bellaterra 08193, Spain
| | - Luciana Jaime
- Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), Bellaterra 08193, Spain
| | - Francisco Lloret
- Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), Bellaterra 08193, Spain; Unitat d'Ecologia, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra 08193, Spain
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3
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Climate change and grassland management interactively influence the population dynamics of Bromus erectus (Poaceae). Basic Appl Ecol 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.baae.2021.06.012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
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4
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Souther S, McGraw JB, Souther JD, Waller DM. Effects of altered climates on American ginseng population dynamics. POPUL ECOL 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/1438-390x.12099] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Sara Souther
- Center for Adaptable Western Landscapes School of Earth and Sustainability Northern Arizona University Flagstaff Arizona USA
| | - James B. McGraw
- Department of Biology West Virginia University Morgantown West Virginia USA
| | - John D. Souther
- Coconino National Forest United States Forest Service Flagstaff Arizona USA
| | - Donald M. Waller
- Nelson Institute of Environmental Studies University of Wisconsin—Madison Madison Wisconsin USA
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Projected Status of the Ghost Orchid ( Dendrophylax lindenii) in Florida during the Next Decade Based on Temporal Dynamic Studies Spanning Six Years. PLANTS 2021; 10:plants10081579. [PMID: 34451624 PMCID: PMC8401884 DOI: 10.3390/plants10081579] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2021] [Revised: 07/29/2021] [Accepted: 07/29/2021] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
The enigmatic ghost orchid, Dendrophylax lindenii (Lindley) Bentham ex Rolfe, is a showy leafless epiphyte restricted to low-lying forests in south Florida and western Cuba. Because of its appeal and reputation for being difficult to cultivate, D. lindenii remains vulnerable to poaching and environmental changes. About 2000 individuals are assumed to remain in Florida, most confined within water-filled cypress domes in the Fakahatchee Strand, but virtually no information exists on current population numbers throughout the region. This paper provides a preliminary summary of the ghost orchid’s projected status based on six continuous years of data collected within the Florida Panther National Wildlife Refuge (FPNWR) from 2015–2020. The orchids were clustered in seven different populations, each separated by ca. 5 km. Quantitative data were collected spanning three age classes (seedlings, juveniles, mature plants) for each population, and survival, flowering, and fruiting were noted. To estimate the temporal variability in the demographic rates, size-structured integral projection models (IPMs) were constructed for each annual transition (e.g., 2015–2016, 2016–2017). Results for all seven populations pooled suggest that D. lindenii numbers will decline by 20% during the next decade in the absence of external adverse factors. Seedling recruitment is not expected to keep pace with the projected decline. Only one population, which was also from the wettest location, continuously harbored spontaneous seedlings, suggesting that most populations within the FPNWR lack conditions suitable for reproduction.
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Doak DF, Waddle E, Langendorf RE, Louthan AM, Isabelle Chardon N, Dibner RR, Keinath DA, Lombardi E, Steenbock C, Shriver RK, Linares C, Begoña Garcia M, Funk WC, Fitzpatrick SW, Morris WF, DeMarche ML. A critical comparison of integral projection and matrix projection models for demographic analysis. ECOL MONOGR 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1447] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Daniel F. Doak
- Environmental Studies Program University of Colorado Boulder Colorado USA
| | - Ellen Waddle
- Environmental Studies Program and Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of Colorado Boulder Colorado USA
| | - Ryan E. Langendorf
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and Environmental Studies Program University of Colorado Boulder Colorado USA
| | - Allison M. Louthan
- Division of Biology Kansas State University Manhattan Kansas USA
- KS and Biology Department Duke University Durham North Carolina USA
| | | | - Reilly R. Dibner
- Department of Zoology and Physiology University of Wyoming Laramie Wyoming USA
| | - Douglas A. Keinath
- Department of Zoology and Physiology University of Wyoming Laramie Wyoming USA
- Wyoming Ecological Services Field Office United States Fish and Wildlife Service 5353 Yellowstone Road, Suite 308A Cheyenne Wyoming82009USA
| | - Elizabeth Lombardi
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Cornell University Ithaca New York USA
| | - Christopher Steenbock
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of Colorado Boulder Colorado USA
| | - Robert K. Shriver
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science University of Nevada Reno Nevada USA
| | - Cristina Linares
- Department of Evolutionary Biology, Ecology and Environmental Sciences Institut de Recerca de la Biodiversitat (IRBio) University of Barcelona Avenida Diagonal 643 Barcelona08028Spain
| | - Maria Begoña Garcia
- Department of Evolutionary Biology, Ecology Pyrenean Institute of Ecology (CSIC) Avenida Montañana 1005 Zaragoza50059Spain
| | - W. Chris Funk
- Department of Biology Graduate Degree Program in Ecology Colorado State University Fort CollinsColorado USA
| | - Sarah W. Fitzpatrick
- W.K. Kellogg Biological Station Michigan State University Hickory Corners Michigan USA
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Demographic effects of interacting species: exploring stable coexistence under increased climatic variability in a semiarid shrub community. Sci Rep 2021; 11:3099. [PMID: 33542350 PMCID: PMC7862631 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-82571-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2020] [Accepted: 01/14/2021] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Population persistence is strongly determined by climatic variability. Changes in the patterns of climatic events linked to global warming may alter population dynamics, but their effects may be strongly modulated by biotic interactions. Plant populations interact with each other in such a way that responses to climate of a single population may impact the dynamics of the whole community. In this study, we assess how climate variability affects persistence and coexistence of two dominant plant species in a semiarid shrub community on gypsum soils. We use 9 years of demographic data to parameterize demographic models and to simulate population dynamics under different climatic and ecological scenarios. We observe that populations of both coexisting species may respond to common climatic fluctuations both similarly and in idiosyncratic ways, depending on the yearly combination of climatic factors. Biotic interactions (both within and among species) modulate some of their vital rates, but their effects on population dynamics highly depend on climatic fluctuations. Our results indicate that increased levels of climatic variability may alter interspecific relationships. These alterations might potentially affect species coexistence, disrupting competitive hierarchies and ultimately leading to abrupt changes in community composition.
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Roos AM. PSPManalysis: Steady‐state and bifurcation analysis of physiologically structured population models. Methods Ecol Evol 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13527] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- André M. Roos
- Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics University of Amsterdam Amsterdam The Netherlands
- Santa Fe Institute Santa Fe NM USA
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Torres-García I, León-Jacinto A, Vega E, Moreno-Calles AI, Casas A. Integral Projection Models and Sustainable Forest Management of Agave inaequidens in Western Mexico. FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE 2020; 11:1224. [PMID: 32903574 PMCID: PMC7438764 DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2020.01224] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2020] [Accepted: 07/27/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
In México, at least 37 Agave species are extracted from wild populations for producing distilled spirits. This activity involves harvesting mature agaves just before producing their inflorescences, which cancels sexual reproduction of plants used. The increasing demand of agaves spirits in national and international markets is determining a strong pressure on wild populations, most of them lacking adequate management. In addition, the dynamics of agave populations may be affected by natural phenomena like oscillation of rainfall regimes, which affects the recruitment of agave seedlings, or the scarcity of pollinators that may affect seed production and general population dynamics. We studied the demography of wild populations of Agave inaequidens to analyze critical conditions for populations recovery, modelling the effects of rainfall trends on the demographic performance of this species, and exploring response of populations to hypothetical extraction regimes and reforestation efforts. Our study was performed in four well-conserved wild populations in Central Western Mexico, each population was sampled in a plot of about one hectare composed by 10 subplots 50 x 5 m (2500 m2). Populations were monitored yearly between 2011 and 2013, measuring plant size, reproductive individuals, and fecundity. Data were analyzed through integral projection models by using the IPMpack for R, to perform prospective analyses. We in addition constructed stochastic models to explore the possible influence of rainfall variation on species demography, using data for the drier and wetter years of the study period. Population growth varied from λ=1.003 to λ=0.899 among populations and years, and exceptionally λ=0.559 after a fire event. Low rainfall decreases λ values, indicating especial limitations to harvesting agaves during dry years whose frequency most probably will increase. In general, extraction rates from 10% to 30% of mature individuals are viable to maintain λ above 1, and these rates may be higher if new plants are introduced in populations. Depending on levels of extraction, our models suggest that it is necessary to carry out actions of reforestation, and in situ management according to the trends found in each site. This is one indispensable condition to maintain λ close to or greater than 1. Sustainable extraction of wild agaves is possible, some communities are already carrying out a repertoire of goods practices in this direction, but together with ecological criteria and good management techniques, strict regulations and social organization are needed to achieve it.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ignacio Torres-García
- Environmental Transdisciplinary Studies, Escuela Nacional de Estudios Superiores, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Morelia, México
- Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Morelia, México
| | | | - Ernesto Vega
- Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Morelia, México
| | - Ana Isabel Moreno-Calles
- Environmental Transdisciplinary Studies, Escuela Nacional de Estudios Superiores, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Morelia, México
| | - Alejandro Casas
- Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Morelia, México
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10
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Rose JP, Todd BD. Targeting eradication of introduced watersnakes using integral projection models. Anim Conserv 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/acv.12590] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/08/2023]
Affiliation(s)
| | - Brian D. Todd
- Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Conservation Biology University of California Davis CA USA
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11
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Sathicq MB, Nicolosi Gelis MM, Cochero J. Calculating autoecological data (optima and tolerance range) for multiple species with the ‘optimos.prime’ R package. AUSTRAL ECOL 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/aec.12868] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- María Belén Sathicq
- Instituto de Limnología “Dr. Raúl A. Ringuelet”; Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Museo; Universidad Nacional de La Plata; Buenos Aires Argentina
- CONICET; Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Tecnológicas; Argentina
- Istituto di Riecerca sulle Acque; CNR-IRSA; Corso Tonolli 50 Verbania 28922 Italy
| | - María Mercedes Nicolosi Gelis
- Instituto de Limnología “Dr. Raúl A. Ringuelet”; Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Museo; Universidad Nacional de La Plata; Buenos Aires Argentina
- CONICET; Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Tecnológicas; Argentina
| | - Joaquín Cochero
- Instituto de Limnología “Dr. Raúl A. Ringuelet”; Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Museo; Universidad Nacional de La Plata; Buenos Aires Argentina
- CONICET; Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Tecnológicas; Argentina
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DeMarche ML, Morris W, Linares C, Doak D. Improving structured population models with more realistic representations of non‐normal growth. Methods Ecol Evol 2019. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13240] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Megan L. DeMarche
- Environmental Studies Program University of Colorado Boulder Boulder Colorado
| | - William Morris
- Biology Department Duke University Durham North Carolina
| | - Cristina Linares
- Department of Evolutionary Biology, Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Institut de Recerca de la Biodiversitat (IRBIO) University of Barcelona Barcelona Spain
| | - Daniel Doak
- Environmental Studies Program University of Colorado Boulder Boulder Colorado
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13
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Briscoe NJ, Elith J, Salguero-Gómez R, Lahoz-Monfort JJ, Camac JS, Giljohann KM, Holden MH, Hradsky BA, Kearney MR, McMahon SM, Phillips BL, Regan TJ, Rhodes JR, Vesk PA, Wintle BA, Yen JDL, Guillera-Arroita G. Forecasting species range dynamics with process-explicit models: matching methods to applications. Ecol Lett 2019; 22:1940-1956. [PMID: 31359571 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13348] [Citation(s) in RCA: 73] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/06/2018] [Revised: 01/14/2019] [Accepted: 06/20/2019] [Indexed: 01/14/2023]
Abstract
Knowing where species occur is fundamental to many ecological and environmental applications. Species distribution models (SDMs) are typically based on correlations between species occurrence data and environmental predictors, with ecological processes captured only implicitly. However, there is a growing interest in approaches that explicitly model processes such as physiology, dispersal, demography and biotic interactions. These models are believed to offer more robust predictions, particularly when extrapolating to novel conditions. Many process-explicit approaches are now available, but it is not clear how we can best draw on this expanded modelling toolbox to address ecological problems and inform management decisions. Here, we review a range of process-explicit models to determine their strengths and limitations, as well as their current use. Focusing on four common applications of SDMs - regulatory planning, extinction risk, climate refugia and invasive species - we then explore which models best meet management needs. We identify barriers to more widespread and effective use of process-explicit models and outline how these might be overcome. As well as technical and data challenges, there is a pressing need for more thorough evaluation of model predictions to guide investment in method development and ensure the promise of these new approaches is fully realised.
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Affiliation(s)
- Natalie J Briscoe
- School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia
| | - Jane Elith
- School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia
| | - Roberto Salguero-Gómez
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.,School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.,Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
| | | | - James S Camac
- School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia
| | | | - Matthew H Holden
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Bronwyn A Hradsky
- School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia
| | - Michael R Kearney
- School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia
| | - Sean M McMahon
- Forest Global Earth Observatory, Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, Edgewater, MD, USA
| | - Ben L Phillips
- School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia
| | - Tracey J Regan
- School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia.,The Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, Heidelberg, Vic., Australia
| | - Jonathan R Rhodes
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
| | - Peter A Vesk
- School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia
| | - Brendan A Wintle
- School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia
| | - Jian D L Yen
- School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia
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Pérez ME, Meléndez-Ackerman EJ, Monsegur-Rivera OA. Variation across river channels in demographic dynamics of a riparian herb with threatened status: management and conservation implications. AMERICAN JOURNAL OF BOTANY 2019; 106:996-1010. [PMID: 31281957 DOI: 10.1002/ajb2.1316] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/14/2018] [Accepted: 04/16/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
PREMISE Gesneria pauciflora is a rare, threatened plant in riparian forests. Periodic disturbances, expected in this habitat, could influence demographic dynamics on plant populations, yet their impact may not be the same across the watershed. We hypothesized that differences in disturbances between the main channel and tributaries may lead to spatial dissimilarities in population growth rate (λ), structure, and fecundity. METHODS In the Maricao River Watershed in Puerto Rico, 1277 plants were tagged and monitored for 1.5 years. Every 6 months, we measured plant size and recorded survival, fecundity, and appearance of seedlings. These variables were used in integral projection models to assess the population status of G. pauciflora. RESULTS Plants in the main channel were smaller but more likely to flower and fruit than those in the tributaries. Overall mortality was greater in the main channel and greater during the rainy season. At both sites, λ ranged from 0.9114 to 0.9865, and survival/growth of larger plants had a greater effect on λ (>0.90) regardless of site. CONCLUSIONS Values for population growth rates suggest that G. pauciflora is declining across the watershed. Higher mortality rates in the main channel (more-perturbed sites) might drive G. pauciflora to reproduce at smaller sizes, while tributaries (less-perturbed sites) might be better for growth and lead to larger plant sizes. Extreme climatic events are expected to increase in the Caribbean and might decrease the population if the population is left unmanaged. Management strategies that reduce the time plants require to reach larger sizes might be necessary to increase λ, and reintroduction using cuttings might be a possible solution.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mervin E Pérez
- Environmental Sciences Department, College of Natural Science, University of Puerto Rico-Río Piedras Campus, Puerto Rico
| | - Elvia J Meléndez-Ackerman
- Environmental Sciences Department, College of Natural Science, University of Puerto Rico-Río Piedras Campus, Puerto Rico
- Center for Applied Tropical Ecology and Conservation, College of Natural Science, University of Puerto Rico-Río Piedras Campus, Puerto Rico
| | - Omar A Monsegur-Rivera
- Caribbean Ecological Services Field Office, Fish and Wildlife Service, Boquerón, Puerto Rico
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Cabrera-Toledo D, González-Astorga J, Vovides AP, Casas A, Vargas-Ponce O, Carrillo-Reyes P, Nolasco-Soto J, Vega E. Surviving background extinction: Inferences from historic and current dynamics in the contrasting population structures of two endemic Mexican cycads. POPUL ECOL 2018. [DOI: 10.1002/1438-390x.1008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Dánae Cabrera-Toledo
- Laboratorio Nacional de Identificación y Caracterización Vegetal (LaniVeg), Instituto de Botánica; Universidad de Guadalajara; Zapopan Jalisco Mexico
| | | | - Andrew P. Vovides
- Biología Evolutiva, Instituto de Ecología A.C.; Xalapa Veracruz Mexico
| | - Alejandro Casas
- Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad; Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; Morelia Michoacán Mexico
| | - Ofelia Vargas-Ponce
- Laboratorio Nacional de Identificación y Caracterización Vegetal (LaniVeg), Instituto de Botánica; Universidad de Guadalajara; Zapopan Jalisco Mexico
| | - Pablo Carrillo-Reyes
- Laboratorio Nacional de Identificación y Caracterización Vegetal (LaniVeg), Instituto de Botánica; Universidad de Guadalajara; Zapopan Jalisco Mexico
| | | | - Ernesto Vega
- Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad; Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; Morelia Michoacán Mexico
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16
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Sulis E, Bacchetta G, Cogoni D, Fenu G. Short-term population dynamics of Helianthemum caput-felis, a perennial Mediterranean coastal plant: a key element for an effective conservation programme. SYST BIODIVERS 2018. [DOI: 10.1080/14772000.2018.1492469] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/27/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Elena Sulis
- Centro Conservazione Biodiversità (CCB), Dipartimento di Scienze della Vita e dell’Ambiente, Università degli Studi di Cagliari, Viale Sant’Ignazio da Laconi 13, I-09123 Cagliari, Italia
| | - Gianluigi Bacchetta
- Centro Conservazione Biodiversità (CCB), Dipartimento di Scienze della Vita e dell’Ambiente, Università degli Studi di Cagliari, Viale Sant’Ignazio da Laconi 13, I-09123 Cagliari, Italia
| | - Donatella Cogoni
- Centro Conservazione Biodiversità (CCB), Dipartimento di Scienze della Vita e dell’Ambiente, Università degli Studi di Cagliari, Viale Sant’Ignazio da Laconi 13, I-09123 Cagliari, Italia
| | - Giuseppe Fenu
- Centro Conservazione Biodiversità (CCB), Dipartimento di Scienze della Vita e dell’Ambiente, Università degli Studi di Cagliari, Viale Sant’Ignazio da Laconi 13, I-09123 Cagliari, Italia
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17
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Töpper JP, Meineri E, Olsen SL, Rydgren K, Skarpaas O, Vandvik V. The devil is in the detail: Nonadditive and context-dependent plant population responses to increasing temperature and precipitation. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2018; 24:4657-4666. [PMID: 29851242 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14336] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/05/2018] [Revised: 05/18/2018] [Accepted: 05/19/2018] [Indexed: 05/13/2023]
Abstract
In climate change ecology, simplistic research approaches may yield unrealistically simplistic answers to often more complicated problems. In particular, the complexity of vegetation responses to global climate change begs a better understanding of the impacts of concomitant changes in several climatic drivers, how these impacts vary across different climatic contexts, and of the demographic processes underlying population changes. Using a replicated, factorial, whole-community transplant experiment, we investigated regional variation in demographic responses of plant populations to increased temperature and/or precipitation. Across four perennial forb species and 12 sites, we found strong responses to both temperature and precipitation change. Changes in population growth rates were mainly due to changes in survival and clonality. In three of the four study species, the combined increase in temperature and precipitation reflected nonadditive, antagonistic interactions of the single climatic changes for population growth rate and survival, while the interactions were additive and synergistic for clonality. This disparity affects the persistence of genotypes, but also suggests that the mechanisms behind the responses of the vital rates differ. In addition, survival effects varied systematically with climatic context, with wetter and warmer + wetter transplants showing less positive or more negative responses at warmer sites. The detailed demographic approach yields important mechanistic insights into how concomitant changes in temperature and precipitation affect plants, which makes our results generalizable beyond the four study species. Our comprehensive study design illustrates the power of replicated field experiments in disentangling the complex relationships and patterns that govern climate change impacts across real-world species and landscapes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joachim P Töpper
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Bergen, Norway
- Institute of Natural Sciences, Western Norway University of Applied Sciences, Sogndal, Norway
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
| | - Eric Meineri
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
- CNRS, IRD, IMBE, Aix Marseille University, University of Avignon, Marseille, France
| | - Siri L Olsen
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Oslo, Norway
| | - Knut Rydgren
- Institute of Natural Sciences, Western Norway University of Applied Sciences, Sogndal, Norway
| | - Olav Skarpaas
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Oslo, Norway
- Natural History Museum, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - Vigdis Vandvik
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
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18
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Cui H, Töpper JP, Yang Y, Vandvik V, Wang G. Plastic Population Effects and Conservative Leaf Traits in a Reciprocal Transplant Experiment Simulating Climate Warming in the Himalayas. FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE 2018; 9:1069. [PMID: 30105040 PMCID: PMC6077237 DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2018.01069] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2018] [Accepted: 07/02/2018] [Indexed: 05/29/2023]
Abstract
Climate warming poses considerable challenges for alpine plant species, especially for competitively inferior ones with resource-conservative adaptations to cold climates. The Himalayas are warming at rates considerably faster than the global average, so it is particularly important to assess how and through which mechanisms alpine plant species are affected there. We employed a demographic approach in a climate change experiment, where vegetation turfs were transplanted reciprocally between the central parts of the study species' (Viola biflora L. var. rockiana) range and the warmer range margin, with a temperature difference of ca. 1°C. In addition, turfs were also transplanted outside the range to warmer habitats, simulating two different scenarios of climate warming, +1 and +4°C. Transplanting to warmer sites negatively impacted population growth rates (λ), survival and clonality, but did not affect growth and fecundity, while the productivity of the plant community increased. The reciprocal transplants to the colder habitat showed the opposite effects, for both V. biflora and the plant community, indicating plastic responses of the study species, driven by changes in plant-plant competition. However, the leaf traits underlying the modeled population growth rates were origin-site specific and not affected by the climate-change treatments over the study period, suggesting local adaptation of growth form to competition in the warmer range margin, and to climate adversity in the colder range center. The transplants outside the present species' range showed consistently stronger reductions in population growth rate and survival, with mortality of 90-100% in the +4°C treatment. This illustrates that climatic changes beyond species' present climatic ranges pose a serious risk for range contraction and extinction for Himalayan alpine species in the near future. As V. biflora seems mostly limited by competition under warming, its persistence in a future climate may become increasingly dependent on keeping competitive effects from the surrounding community low, for instance by management interventions like grazing and mowing.
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Affiliation(s)
- Haijun Cui
- National Plateau Wetlands Research Center, College of Wetlands, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming, China
- Key Laboratory of Mountain Surface Processes and Ecological Regulation, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Joachim P. Töpper
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Bergen, Norway
- Department of Biology, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
| | - Yan Yang
- Key Laboratory of Mountain Surface Processes and Ecological Regulation, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, China
| | - Vigdis Vandvik
- Department of Biology, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
- Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
| | - Genxu Wang
- Key Laboratory of Mountain Surface Processes and Ecological Regulation, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, China
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19
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Lommen STE, Jongejans E, Leitsch-Vitalos M, Tokarska-Guzik B, Zalai M, Müller-Schärer H, Karrer G. Time to cut: population models reveal how to mow invasive common ragweed cost-effectively. NEOBIOTA 2018. [DOI: 10.3897/neobiota.39.23398] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022]
Abstract
Roadsides are an important habitat for invasive common ragweed, Ambrosiaartemisiifolia L., by facilitating seed dispersal. Reducing the size of roadside populations is therefore essential for confining this highly allergenic species. Here, we aim to determine the cost-effectiveness of mowing regimes varying in frequency and timing, by analysing population-level effects and underlying demographic processes. We constructed population models of A.artemisiifolia parameterised by demographic data for four unmanaged reference populations across Europe in two years. We integrated the effects of four experimental mowing regimes along Austrian road sides on plant performance traits of five years and experimental data on seed viability after cutting. All four experimental regimes reduced the projected intrinsic population growth rates (r) compared to the unmanaged controls by reducing plant height and seed viability, thereby counteracting increased size-dependent fecundity. The prevailing 2-cut regime in Austria (cutting during vegetative growth, here in June and just before seed ripening, here in September) performed least well and the reduction in r was mainly due to reduced seed viability after the second cut. The efficacy of the two best experimental regimes (alternative schemes for 2 or 3 cuts) was mainly due to cutting just before female flowering (here in August) by decreasing final adult plant height dramatically and thereby reducing seed numbers. Patterns were consistent across reference populations and years. Whether regimes reduced r below replacement level, however, varied per population, year and the survival rate of the seeds in the soil bank. Our model allowed projecting effects of five theoretical mowing regimes with untested combinations of cuts on r. By plotting r-cost relationships for all regimes, we identified the most cost-effective schemes for each cutting frequency (1–3 cuts). They all included the cut just before female flowering, highlighting the importance of cutting at this moment (here in August). Our work features i) the suitability of a modelling approach for the demography of an annual species with a seed bank, ii) the importance of seed viability in assessing mowing effects, iii) the use of population models in designing cost-effective mowing regimes.
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20
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Salguero‐Gómez R, Violle C, Gimenez O, Childs D, Fox C. Delivering the promises of trait-based approaches to the needs of demographic approaches, and vice versa. Funct Ecol 2018; 32:1424-1435. [PMID: 30034074 PMCID: PMC6049886 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2435.13148] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2018] [Accepted: 05/22/2018] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
Few facets of biology vary more than functional traits and life-history traits. To explore this vast variation, functional ecologists and population ecologists have developed independent approaches that identify the mechanisms behind and consequences of trait variation.Collaborative research between researchers using trait-based and demographic approaches remains scarce. We argue that this is a missed opportunity, as the strengths of both approaches could help boost the research agendas of functional ecology and population ecology.This special feature, which spans three journals of the British Ecological Society due to its interdisciplinary nature, showcases state-of-the-art research applying trait-based and demographic approaches to examine relationships between organismal function, life history strategies and population performance across multiple kingdoms. Examples include the exploration of how functional trait × environment interactions affect vital rates and thus explain population trends and species occurrence; the coordination of seed traits and dispersal ability with the pace of life in plants; the incorporation of functional traits in dynamic energy budget models; or the discovery of linkages between microbial functional traits and the fast-slow continuum.Despite their historical isolation, collaborative work between functional ecologists and population ecologists could unlock novel research pathways. We call for an integrative research agenda to evaluate which and when traits are functional, as well as their ability to describe and predict life history strategies and population dynamics. We highlight promising, complementary research avenues to overcome current limitations. These include a more explicit linkage of selection gradients in the context of functional trait-vital rate relationships, and the implementation of standardised protocols to track changes in traits and vital rates over time at the same location and individuals, thus allowing for the explicit incorporation of trade-offs in analyses of covariation of functional traits and life-history traits.
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Affiliation(s)
- Roberto Salguero‐Gómez
- Department of ZoologyUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
- Evolutionary Biodemography LaboratoryMax Planck Institute for Demographic ResearchRostockGermany
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation ScienceUniversity of QueenslandSt LuciaQldAustralia
| | - Cyrille Violle
- CEFE, CNRSUniv MontpellierUniv Paul Valéry Montpellier 3, EPHE, IRDMontpellierFrance
| | - Olivier Gimenez
- CEFE, CNRSUniv MontpellierUniv Paul Valéry Montpellier 3, EPHE, IRDMontpellierFrance
| | - Dylan Childs
- Department of Animal & Plant SciencesThe University of SheffieldSheffieldUK
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21
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Abstract
Senescence, an organismal performance decline with age, has historically been considered a universal phenomenon by evolutionary biologists and zoologist. Yet, increasing fertility and survival with age are nothing new to plant ecologists, among whom it is common knowledge that senescence is not universal. Recently, these two realities have come into a confrontation, begging for the rephrasing of the classical question that has led ageing research for decades: “why do we senesce?” to a more practical “what are the mechanisms by which some organisms escape from senescence?” Plants are amenable to examining this question because of their rich repertoire of life history strategies. These include the existence of permanent seed banks, vegetative dormancy and ability to produce clones, among others. Here, I use a large number of high resolution demographic models from 181 species that reflect life history strategies and their trade-offs among herbaceous perennials, succulents and shrubs measured under field conditions worldwide to examine whether senescence rates of ramets from clonal plants differ from those of whole plants reproducing either strictly sexually, or with a combination of sexual and clonal mechanisms. Contrary to the initial expectation from the mutation accumulation theory of senescence, ramets of clonal plants were more likely to exhibit senescence than those species employing sexual reproduction. I discuss why these comparisons between ramets and genets are useful, as well as its implications and future directions for ageing research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Roberto Salguero-Gómez
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, New Radcliffe House, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Oxford, OX2 6GG UK
- Centre of Excellence in Environmental Decisions, University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD 4072 Australia
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22
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Affiliation(s)
- Alden B. Griffith
- Environmental Studies Program, Wellesley College; 106 Central Street Wellesley MA 02481 USA
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23
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White JW, Nickols KJ, Malone D, Carr MH, Starr RM, Cordoleani F, Baskett ML, Hastings A, Botsford LW. Fitting state-space integral projection models to size-structured time series data to estimate unknown parameters. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2016; 26:2675-2692. [PMID: 27907261 DOI: 10.1002/eap.1398] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/27/2015] [Revised: 04/23/2016] [Accepted: 06/22/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Integral projection models (IPMs) have a number of advantages over matrix-model approaches for analyzing size-structured population dynamics, because the latter require parameter estimates for each age or stage transition. However, IPMs still require appropriate data. Typically they are parameterized using individual-scale relationships between body size and demographic rates, but these are not always available. We present an alternative approach for estimating demographic parameters from time series of size-structured survey data using a Bayesian state-space IPM (SSIPM). By fitting an IPM in a state-space framework, we estimate unknown parameters and explicitly account for process and measurement error in a dataset to estimate the underlying process model dynamics. We tested our method by fitting SSIPMs to simulated data; the model fit the simulated size distributions well and estimated unknown demographic parameters accurately. We then illustrated our method using nine years of annual surveys of the density and size distribution of two fish species (blue rockfish, Sebastes mystinus, and gopher rockfish, S. carnatus) at seven kelp forest sites in California. The SSIPM produced reasonable fits to the data, and estimated fishing rates for both species that were higher than our Bayesian prior estimates based on coast-wide stock assessment estimates of harvest. That improvement reinforces the value of being able to estimate demographic parameters from local-scale monitoring data. We highlight a number of key decision points in SSIPM development (e.g., open vs. closed demography, number of particles in the state-space filter) so that users can apply the method to their own datasets.
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Affiliation(s)
- J Wilson White
- Department of Biology and Marine Biology, University of North Carolina Wilmington, Wilmington, North Carolina, 28043, USA
| | - Kerry J Nickols
- Division of Science and Environmental Policy, California State University Monterey Bay, Seaside, California, 93955, USA
| | - Daniel Malone
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, 95060, USA
| | - Mark H Carr
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, 95060, USA
| | - Richard M Starr
- California Sea Grant Extension Program, Moss Landing Marine Laboratories, Moss Landing, California, 95039, USA
| | - Flora Cordoleani
- Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Conservation Biology, University of California Davis, Davis, California, 95616, USA
| | - Marissa L Baskett
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California Davis, Davis, California, 95616, USA
| | - Alan Hastings
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California Davis, Davis, California, 95616, USA
| | - Louis W Botsford
- Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Conservation Biology, University of California Davis, Davis, California, 95616, USA
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24
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Pannell J. Data Management Plan for PhD Thesis "Climatic Limitation of Alien Weeds in New Zealand: Enhancing Species Distribution Models with Field Data". RESEARCH IDEAS AND OUTCOMES 2016. [DOI: 10.3897/rio.2.e10600] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
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25
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García N, Zuidema PA, Galeano G, Bernal R. Demography and sustainable management of two fiber-producing Astrocaryumpalms in Colombia. Biotropica 2016. [DOI: 10.1111/btp.12338] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Néstor García
- Departamento de Biología; Facultad de Ciencias, Pontificia; Universidad Javeriana; Bogotá Colombia
| | - Pieter A. Zuidema
- Forest Ecology and Forest Management; Wageningen University; Droevendaalsesteeg 3a Wageningen 6700 AA The Netherlands
| | - Gloria Galeano
- Instituto de Ciencias Naturales; Universidad Nacional de Colombia; Apartado 7495 Bogotá Colombia
| | - Rodrigo Bernal
- Instituto de Ciencias Naturales; Universidad Nacional de Colombia; Apartado 7495 Bogotá Colombia
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26
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Petry WK, Soule JD, Iler AM, Chicas-Mosier A, Inouye DW, Miller TEX, Mooney KA. Sex-specific responses to climate change in plants alter population sex ratio and performance. Science 2016; 353:69-71. [PMID: 27365446 DOI: 10.1126/science.aaf2588] [Citation(s) in RCA: 58] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/14/2016] [Accepted: 05/16/2016] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
Males and females are ecologically distinct in many species, but whether responses to climate change are sex-specific is unknown. We document sex-specific responses to climate change in the plant Valeriana edulis (valerian) over four decades and across its 1800-meter elevation range. Increased elevation was associated with increased water availability and female frequency, likely owing to sex-specific water use efficiency and survival. Recent aridification caused male frequency to move upslope at 175 meters per decade, a rate of trait shift outpacing reported species' range shifts by an order of magnitude. This increase in male frequency reduced pollen limitation and increased seedset. Coupled with previous studies reporting sex-specific arthropod communities, these results underscore the importance of ecological differences between the sexes in mediating biological responses to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- William K Petry
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697-2525, USA. Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Crested Butte, CO 81224, USA.
| | - Judith D Soule
- Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Crested Butte, CO 81224, USA
| | - Amy M Iler
- Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Crested Butte, CO 81224, USA. Aarhus Institute of Advanced Studies, Aarhus University, Høegh-Guldbergs Gade 6B, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark
| | - Ana Chicas-Mosier
- Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Crested Butte, CO 81224, USA. Department of Integrative Biology, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK 74078, USA
| | - David W Inouye
- Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Crested Butte, CO 81224, USA. Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
| | - Tom E X Miller
- Department of BioSciences, Program in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Rice University, Houston, TX 77005, USA
| | - Kailen A Mooney
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697-2525, USA. Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Crested Butte, CO 81224, USA.
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27
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Olsen SL, Töpper JP, Skarpaas O, Vandvik V, Klanderud K. From facilitation to competition: temperature-driven shift in dominant plant interactions affects population dynamics in seminatural grasslands. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2016; 22:1915-1926. [PMID: 26845378 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13241] [Citation(s) in RCA: 58] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/04/2014] [Revised: 01/22/2016] [Accepted: 01/25/2016] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
Biotic interactions are often ignored in assessments of climate change impacts. However, climate-related changes in species interactions, often mediated through increased dominance of certain species or functional groups, may have important implications for how species respond to climate warming and altered precipitation patterns. We examined how a dominant plant functional group affected the population dynamics of four co-occurring forb species by experimentally removing graminoids in seminatural grasslands. Specifically, we explored how the interaction between dominants and subordinates varied with climate by replicating the removal experiment across a climate grid consisting of 12 field sites spanning broad-scale temperature and precipitation gradients in southern Norway. Biotic interactions affected population growth rates of all study species, and the net outcome of interactions between dominants and subordinates switched from facilitation to competition with increasing temperature along the temperature gradient. The impacts of competitive interactions on subordinates in the warmer sites could primarily be attributed to reduced plant survival. Whereas the response to dominant removal varied with temperature, there was no overall effect of precipitation on the balance between competition and facilitation. Our findings suggest that global warming may increase the relative importance of competitive interactions in seminatural grasslands across a wide range of precipitation levels, thereby favouring highly competitive dominant species over subordinate species. As a result, seminatural grasslands may become increasingly dependent on disturbance (i.e. traditional management such as grazing and mowing) to maintain viable populations of subordinate species and thereby biodiversity under future climates. Our study highlights the importance of population-level studies replicated under different climatic conditions for understanding the underlying mechanisms of climate change impacts on plants.
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Affiliation(s)
- Siri L Olsen
- Department of Ecology and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003, N-1432, Ås, Norway
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Gaustadalléen 21, N-0349, Oslo, Norway
| | - Joachim P Töpper
- Faculty of Engineering and Science, Sogn og Fjordane University College, P.O. Box 133, N-6851, Sogndal, Norway
- Department of Biology, University of Bergen, P.O. Box 7803, N-5020, Bergen, Norway
| | - Olav Skarpaas
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Gaustadalléen 21, N-0349, Oslo, Norway
| | - Vigdis Vandvik
- Department of Biology, University of Bergen, P.O. Box 7803, N-5020, Bergen, Norway
| | - Kari Klanderud
- Department of Ecology and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003, N-1432, Ås, Norway
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28
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Wilber MQ, Langwig KE, Kilpatrick AM, McCallum HI, Briggs CJ. Integral Projection Models for host-parasite systems with an application to amphibian chytrid fungus. Methods Ecol Evol 2016; 7:1182-1194. [PMID: 28239442 DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.12561] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Abstract
Host parasite models are typically constructed under either a microparasite or macroparasite paradigm. However, this has long been recognized as a false dichotomy because many infectious disease agents, including most fungal pathogens, have attributes of both microparasites and macroparasites.We illustrate how Integral Projection Models (IPM)s provide a novel, elegant modeling framework to represent both types of pathogens. We build a simple host-parasite IPM that tracks both the number of susceptible and infected hosts and the distribution of parasite burdens in infected hosts.The vital rate functions necessary to build IPMs for disease dynamics share many commonalities with classic micro and macroparasite models and we discuss how these functions can be parameterized to build a host-parasite IPM. We illustrate the utility of this IPM approach by modeling the temperature-dependent epizootic dynamics of amphibian chytrid fungus in Mountain yellow-legged frogs (Rana muscosa).The host-parasite IPM can be applied to other diseases such as facial tumor disease in Tasmanian devils and white-nose syndrome in bats. Moreover, the host-parasite IPM can be easily extended to capture more complex disease dynamics and provides an exciting new frontier in modeling wildlife disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mark Q Wilber
- Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, 93117
| | - Kate E Langwig
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, 95064
| | - A Marm Kilpatrick
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, 95064
| | - Hamish I McCallum
- Griffith School of Environment, Griffith University, Nathan QLD 4111, Australia
| | - Cheryl J Briggs
- Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, 93117
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29
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Pannell J. Data Management Plan for PhD Thesis "Climatic Limitation of Alien Weeds in New Zealand: Enhancing Species Distribution Models with Field Data". RESEARCH IDEAS AND OUTCOMES 2016. [DOI: 10.3897/rio.2.e8664] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
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30
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Schrieber K, Lachmuth S. The Genetic Paradox of Invasions revisited: the potential role of inbreeding × environment interactions in invasion success. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 2016; 92:939-952. [DOI: 10.1111/brv.12263] [Citation(s) in RCA: 71] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/29/2015] [Revised: 02/12/2016] [Accepted: 02/18/2016] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Karin Schrieber
- Geobotany and Botanical Garden, Institute of Biology; Martin Luther University of Halle; 06108 Halle (Saale) Germany
| | - Susanne Lachmuth
- Geobotany and Botanical Garden, Institute of Biology; Martin Luther University of Halle; 06108 Halle (Saale) Germany
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig; 04103 Leipzig Germany
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31
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Schreiber SJ, Ross N. Individual‐based integral projection models: the role of size‐structure on extinction risk and establishment success. Methods Ecol Evol 2016. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.12537] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Sebastian J. Schreiber
- Department of Evolution and Ecology University of California, Davis One Shields Avenue Davis CA 95616 USA
| | - Noam Ross
- EcoHealth Alliance 460 West 34th Street, 17th Floor New York NY 10001 USA
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32
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Recent range expansion of a terrestrial orchid corresponds with climate-driven variation in its population dynamics. Oecologia 2016; 181:435-48. [DOI: 10.1007/s00442-016-3592-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2015] [Accepted: 02/18/2016] [Indexed: 10/22/2022]
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33
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González EJ, Martorell C, Bolker BM. Inverse estimation of integral projection model parameters using time series of population‐level data. Methods Ecol Evol 2016. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.12519] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Edgar J. González
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics McMaster University 1280 Main St W L8S4L8 Hamilton Ontario Canada
| | - Carlos Martorell
- Departamento de Ecología y Recursos Naturales Facultad de Ciencias Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Circuito Exterior s/n Ciudad Universitaria 04510 México D.F Mexico
| | - Benjamin M. Bolker
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics McMaster University 1280 Main St W L8S4L8 Hamilton Ontario Canada
- Department of Biology McMaster University 1280 Main St W L8S4L8 Hamilton Ontario Canada
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34
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Using integral projection models to compare population dynamics of four closely related species. POPUL ECOL 2016. [DOI: 10.1007/s10144-016-0537-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
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Salguero-Gómez R, Jones OR, Archer CR, Bein C, de Buhr H, Farack C, Gottschalk F, Hartmann A, Henning A, Hoppe G, Römer G, Ruoff T, Sommer V, Wille J, Voigt J, Zeh S, Vieregg D, Buckley YM, Che-Castaldo J, Hodgson D, Scheuerlein A, Caswell H, Vaupel JW. COMADRE: a global data base of animal demography. J Anim Ecol 2016; 85:371-84. [PMID: 26814420 PMCID: PMC4819704 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12482] [Citation(s) in RCA: 117] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2015] [Accepted: 12/04/2015] [Indexed: 01/30/2023]
Abstract
The open‐data scientific philosophy is being widely adopted and proving to promote considerable progress in ecology and evolution. Open‐data global data bases now exist on animal migration, species distribution, conservation status, etc. However, a gap exists for data on population dynamics spanning the rich diversity of the animal kingdom world‐wide. This information is fundamental to our understanding of the conditions that have shaped variation in animal life histories and their relationships with the environment, as well as the determinants of invasion and extinction. Matrix population models (MPMs) are among the most widely used demographic tools by animal ecologists. MPMs project population dynamics based on the reproduction, survival and development of individuals in a population over their life cycle. The outputs from MPMs have direct biological interpretations, facilitating comparisons among animal species as different as Caenorhabditis elegans, Loxodonta africana and Homo sapiens. Thousands of animal demographic records exist in the form of MPMs, but they are dispersed throughout the literature, rendering comparative analyses difficult. Here, we introduce the COMADRE Animal Matrix Database, an open‐data online repository, which in its version 1.0.0 contains data on 345 species world‐wide, from 402 studies with a total of 1625 population projection matrices. COMADRE also contains ancillary information (e.g. ecoregion, taxonomy, biogeography, etc.) that facilitates interpretation of the numerous demographic metrics that can be derived from its MPMs. We provide R code to some of these examples. Synthesis: We introduce the COMADRE Animal Matrix Database, a resource for animal demography. Its open‐data nature, together with its ancillary information, will facilitate comparative analysis, as will the growing availability of databases focusing on other aspects of the rich animal diversity, and tools to query and combine them. Through future frequent updates of COMADRE, and its integration with other online resources, we encourage animal ecologists to tackle global ecological and evolutionary questions with unprecedented sample size.
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Affiliation(s)
- Roberto Salguero-Gómez
- Laboratory of Evolutionary Biodemography Laboratory, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Konrad-Zuse-Straße 1, Rostock, DE-18057, Germany.,ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Goddard building #8, St. Lucia, Qld, 4072, Australia
| | - Owen R Jones
- Max-Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Aging, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.,Department of Biology, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark
| | - C Ruth Archer
- Laboratory of Evolutionary Biodemography Laboratory, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Konrad-Zuse-Straße 1, Rostock, DE-18057, Germany.,MaxNetAging School, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Konrad-Zuse-Straße 1, DE-18057, Rostock, Germany
| | - Christoph Bein
- Laboratory of Evolutionary Biodemography Laboratory, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Konrad-Zuse-Straße 1, Rostock, DE-18057, Germany
| | - Hendrik de Buhr
- Laboratory of Evolutionary Biodemography Laboratory, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Konrad-Zuse-Straße 1, Rostock, DE-18057, Germany
| | - Claudia Farack
- Laboratory of Evolutionary Biodemography Laboratory, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Konrad-Zuse-Straße 1, Rostock, DE-18057, Germany
| | - Fränce Gottschalk
- Laboratory of Evolutionary Biodemography Laboratory, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Konrad-Zuse-Straße 1, Rostock, DE-18057, Germany
| | - Alexander Hartmann
- Laboratory of Evolutionary Biodemography Laboratory, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Konrad-Zuse-Straße 1, Rostock, DE-18057, Germany
| | - Anne Henning
- Laboratory of Evolutionary Biodemography Laboratory, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Konrad-Zuse-Straße 1, Rostock, DE-18057, Germany
| | - Gabriel Hoppe
- Laboratory of Evolutionary Biodemography Laboratory, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Konrad-Zuse-Straße 1, Rostock, DE-18057, Germany
| | - Gesa Römer
- Laboratory of Evolutionary Biodemography Laboratory, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Konrad-Zuse-Straße 1, Rostock, DE-18057, Germany
| | - Tara Ruoff
- Department of Plant Science and Landscape Architecture, Department of Entomology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, USA
| | - Veronika Sommer
- Laboratory of Evolutionary Biodemography Laboratory, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Konrad-Zuse-Straße 1, Rostock, DE-18057, Germany
| | - Julia Wille
- Laboratory of Evolutionary Biodemography Laboratory, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Konrad-Zuse-Straße 1, Rostock, DE-18057, Germany
| | - Jakob Voigt
- Laboratory of Evolutionary Biodemography Laboratory, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Konrad-Zuse-Straße 1, Rostock, DE-18057, Germany
| | - Stefan Zeh
- Laboratory of Evolutionary Biodemography Laboratory, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Konrad-Zuse-Straße 1, Rostock, DE-18057, Germany
| | - Dirk Vieregg
- Laboratory of Evolutionary Biodemography Laboratory, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Konrad-Zuse-Straße 1, Rostock, DE-18057, Germany
| | - Yvonne M Buckley
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Goddard building #8, St. Lucia, Qld, 4072, Australia.,School of Natural Sciences, Zoology & Trinity Centre for Biodiversity Research, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin 2, Ireland
| | - Judy Che-Castaldo
- National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, 1 Park Place, Annapolis, MD, 21401, USA
| | - David Hodgson
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Cornwall Campus, Exeter, TR10 9FE, UK
| | - Alexander Scheuerlein
- Laboratory of Evolutionary Biodemography Laboratory, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Konrad-Zuse-Straße 1, Rostock, DE-18057, Germany
| | - Hal Caswell
- Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, 1090 GE, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.,Biology Department MS-34, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, 02543-1050, USA
| | - James W Vaupel
- Laboratory of Evolutionary Biodemography Laboratory, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Konrad-Zuse-Straße 1, Rostock, DE-18057, Germany.,Max-Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Aging, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.,Population Research Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC, 27708-0309, USA
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Metcalf CJE, Graham AL, Martinez-Bakker M, Childs DZ. Opportunities and challenges of Integral Projection Models for modelling host-parasite dynamics. J Anim Ecol 2015; 85:343-55. [PMID: 26620440 PMCID: PMC4991293 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12456] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/03/2015] [Accepted: 09/29/2015] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
Epidemiological dynamics are shaped by and may in turn shape host demography. These feedbacks can result in hard to predict patterns of disease incidence. Mathematical models that integrate infection and demography are consequently a key tool for informing expectations for disease burden and identifying effective measures for control. A major challenge is capturing the details of infection within individuals and quantifying their downstream impacts to understand population‐scale outcomes. For example, parasite loads and antibody titres may vary over the course of an infection and contribute to differences in transmission at the scale of the population. To date, to capture these subtleties, models have mostly relied on complex mechanistic frameworks, discrete categorization and/or agent‐based approaches. Integral Projection Models (IPMs) allow variance in individual trajectories of quantitative traits and their population‐level outcomes to be captured in ways that directly reflect statistical models of trait–fate relationships. Given increasing data availability, and advances in modelling, there is considerable potential for extending this framework to traits of relevance for infectious disease dynamics. Here, we provide an overview of host and parasite natural history contexts where IPMs could strengthen inference of population dynamics, with examples of host species ranging from mice to sheep to humans, and parasites ranging from viruses to worms. We discuss models of both parasite and host traits, provide two case studies and conclude by reviewing potential for both ecological and evolutionary research.
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Affiliation(s)
- C Jessica E Metcalf
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.,Office of Population Research, The Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Andrea L Graham
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | | | - Dylan Z Childs
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, Sheffield University, Sheffield, UK
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Tremblay RL, Raventos J, Ackerman JD. When stable-stage equilibrium is unlikely: integrating transient population dynamics improves asymptotic methods. ANNALS OF BOTANY 2015; 116:381-90. [PMID: 25814059 PMCID: PMC4549953 DOI: 10.1093/aob/mcv031] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2014] [Accepted: 02/04/2015] [Indexed: 05/13/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS Evaluation of population projection matrices (PPMs) that are focused on asymptotically based properties of populations is a commonly used approach to evaluate projected dynamics of managed populations. Recently, a set of tools for evaluating the properties of transient dynamics has been expanded to evaluate PPMs and to consider the dynamics of populations prior to attaining the stable-stage distribution, a state that may never be achieved in disturbed or otherwise ephemeral habitats or persistently small populations. This study re-evaluates data for a tropical orchid and examines the value of including such analyses in an integrative approach. METHODS Six small populations of Lepanthes rubripetala were used as a model system and the R software package popdemo was used to produce estimates of the indices for the asymptotic growth rate (lambda), sensitivities, reactivity, first-time step attenuation, maximum amplification, maximum attenuation, maximal inertia and maximal attenuation. The response in lambda to perturbations of demographic parameters using transfer functions and multiple perturbations on growth, stasis and fecundity were also determined. The results were compared with previously published asymptotic indices. KEY RESULTS It was found that combining asymptotic and transient dynamics expands the understanding of possible population changes. Comparison of the predicted density from reactivity and first-time step attenuation with the observed change in population size in two orchid populations showed that the observed density was within the predicted range. However, transfer function analysis suggests that the traditional approach of measuring perturbation of growth rates and persistence (inertia) may be misleading and is likely to result in erroneous management decisions. CONCLUSIONS Based on the results, an integrative approach is recommended using traditional PPMs (asymptotic processes) with an evaluation of the diversity of dynamics that may arise when populations are not at a stable-stage distribution (transient processes). This method is preferable for designing rapid and efficient interventions after disturbances, and for developing strategies to establish new populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Raymond L Tremblay
- Department of Biology, PO Box 860, University of Puerto Rico, Humacao, 00791, Puerto Rico,
| | - Josep Raventos
- Departamento de Ecología, Universidad de Alicante, Carretera S. Vicente del Raspeig s/n, 03080, San Vicente del Raspeig, Alicante, Spain
| | - James D Ackerman
- Department of Biology, PO Box 23360, University of Puerto Rico, Rio Piedras campus, San Juan, 00931-3360, Puerto Rico, Center for Applied Tropical Ecology and Conservation, PO Box 23360, University of Puerto Rico, Rio Piedras campus, San Juan, 00931-3360, Puerto Rico and
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Metcalf CJE, Ellner SP, Childs DZ, Salguero‐Gómez R, Merow C, McMahon SM, Jongejans E, Rees M. Statistical modelling of annual variation for inference on stochastic population dynamics using Integral Projection Models. Methods Ecol Evol 2015. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.12405] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- C. Jessica E. Metcalf
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Princeton University Princeton NJ USA
| | - Stephen P. Ellner
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Cornell University Ithaca NY USA
| | - Dylan Z. Childs
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences Sheffield University Sheffield UK
| | - Roberto Salguero‐Gómez
- Evolutionary Demography Laboratory Max Planck Institute of Demographic Research Rostock 18057 Germany
- School of Biological Sciences Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science The University of Queensland St Lucia QLD 4072 Australia
| | - Cory Merow
- Division of Migratory Bird Management United States Fish and Wildlife Service Laurel MD USA
- Smithsonian Environmental Research Center Edgewater MD USA
| | | | - Eelke Jongejans
- Department of Animal Ecology and Ecophysiology Radboud University Nijmegen The Netherlands
| | - Mark Rees
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences Sheffield University Sheffield UK
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Raventós J, González E, Mújica E, Doak DF. Population Viability Analysis of the Epiphytic Ghost Orchid (Dendrophylax lindenii) in Cuba. Biotropica 2015. [DOI: 10.1111/btp.12202] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- José Raventós
- Departamento de Ecología; Universidad de Alicante; Carretera S. Vicente del Raspeig s/n San Vicente del Raspeig E.03080 Alicante Spain
| | - Elaine González
- Orquideario Soroa; Carretera a Soroa Km. 8, Candelaria Pinar del Río Cuba
| | - Ernesto Mújica
- Jardín Botánico de Pinar del Río; ECOVIDA; Km.1,5 Hoyo del Guamá Pinar del Río Cuba
| | - Dan F. Doak
- Environmental Studies Program; University of Colorado; Boulder CO 80309 U.S.A
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41
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Affiliation(s)
- Stuart R. Borrett
- Department of Biology and Marine Biology; University of North Carolina Wilmington; Wilmington NC 28403 USA
- Duke Network Analysis Center; Social Science Research Institute; Duke University; Durham NC 27708 USA
| | - Matthew K. Lau
- Department of Biological Sciences and the Merriam-Powell Center for Environmental Research; Northern Arizona University; 617 S. Beaver Street Flagstaff AZ 86011 USA
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42
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Zambrano J, Salguero-Gómez R. Forest Fragmentation Alters the Population Dynamics of a Late-successional Tropical Tree. Biotropica 2014. [DOI: 10.1111/btp.12144] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Jenny Zambrano
- Department of Biological Sciences; University of Illinois at Chicago; 845 W. Taylor St. (M/C 066) Chicago IL 60706 U.S.A
| | - Roberto Salguero-Gómez
- School of Biological Sciences; Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science; University of Queensland; St Lucia Qld 4072 Australia
- Evolutionary Demography Laboratory; Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research; Rostock DE-18057 Germany
- School of Natural Sciences; Trinity College Dublin; College Green; Dublin 2 Ireland
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43
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Rees M, Childs DZ, Ellner SP, Coulson T. Building integral projection models: a user's guide. J Anim Ecol 2014; 83:528-45. [PMID: 24219157 PMCID: PMC4258094 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12178] [Citation(s) in RCA: 96] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2013] [Accepted: 11/05/2013] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
In order to understand how changes in individual performance (growth, survival or reproduction) influence population dynamics and evolution, ecologists are increasingly using parameterized mathematical models. For continuously structured populations, where some continuous measure of individual state influences growth, survival or reproduction, integral projection models (IPMs) are commonly used. We provide a detailed description of the steps involved in constructing an IPM, explaining how to: (i) translate your study system into an IPM; (ii) implement your IPM; and (iii) diagnose potential problems with your IPM. We emphasize how the study organism's life cycle, and the timing of censuses, together determine the structure of the IPM kernel and important aspects of the statistical analysis used to parameterize an IPM using data on marked individuals. An IPM based on population studies of Soay sheep is used to illustrate the complete process of constructing, implementing and evaluating an IPM fitted to sample data. We then look at very general approaches to parameterizing an IPM, using a wide range of statistical techniques (e.g. maximum likelihood methods, generalized additive models, nonparametric kernel density estimators). Methods for selecting models for parameterizing IPMs are briefly discussed. We conclude with key recommendations and a brief overview of applications that extend the basic model. The online Supporting Information provides commented R code for all our analyses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mark Rees
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western BankSheffield, S10 2TN, UK
| | - Dylan Z Childs
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western BankSheffield, S10 2TN, UK
| | - Stephen P Ellner
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell UniversityIthaca, NY, 14853-2701, USA
| | - Tim Coulson
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western BankSheffield, S10 2TN, UK
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell UniversityIthaca, NY, 14853-2701, USA
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44
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Merow C, Dahlgren JP, Metcalf CJE, Childs DZ, Evans ME, Jongejans E, Record S, Rees M, Salguero-Gómez R, McMahon SM. Advancing population ecology with integral projection models: a practical guide. Methods Ecol Evol 2014. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.12146] [Citation(s) in RCA: 172] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Cory Merow
- Smithsonian Environmental Research Center; 647 Contees Wharf Rd Edgewater MD 21307 Edgewater MD 21307-0028 USA
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology; University of Connecticut; Storrs CT 06269 USA
| | - Johan P. Dahlgren
- Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences; Stockholm University; Stockholm Sweden
- Department of Biology and Max-Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Aging; University of Southern Denmark; Odense Denmark
| | - C. Jessica E. Metcalf
- Department of Zoology; Oxford University; Oxford UK
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology; Princeton University; Princeton NJ USA
| | - Dylan Z. Childs
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences; University of Sheffield; Sheffield UK
| | - Margaret E.K. Evans
- Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research and Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology; University of Arizona; Tucson AZ USA
| | - Eelke Jongejans
- Department of Animal Ecology and Ecophysiology; Institute for Water and Wetland Research; Radboud University Nijmegen; Nijmegen The Netherlands
| | - Sydne Record
- Harvard University; Harvard Forest Petersham MA USA
| | - Mark Rees
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences; University of Sheffield; Sheffield UK
| | - Roberto Salguero-Gómez
- Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research; Evolutionary Demography laboratory; Rostock Germany
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science; University of Queensland; St Lucia Qld Australia
| | - Sean M. McMahon
- Smithsonian Environmental Research Center; 647 Contees Wharf Rd Edgewater MD 21307 Edgewater MD 21307-0028 USA
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Dauer JT, Jongejans E. Elucidating the population dynamics of Japanese knotweed using integral projection models. PLoS One 2013; 8:e75181. [PMID: 24073249 PMCID: PMC3779190 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0075181] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/16/2013] [Accepted: 08/09/2013] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Plant demographic studies coupled with population modeling are crucial components of invasive plant management because they inform managers when in a plant’s life cycle it is most susceptible to control efforts. Providing land managers with appropriate data can be especially challenging when there is limited data on potentially important transitions that occur belowground. For 2 years, we monitored 4 clonal Japanese knotweed (Polygonumcuspidatum) infestations for emergence, survival, shoot height until leaf senescence, dry shoot biomass after senescence, and rhizome connections for 424 shoots. We developed an integral projection model using both final autumn shoot height and shoot biomass as predictors of survival between years, growth from year to year, and number of rhizomes produced by a shoot (fecundity). Numbers of new shoots within an infestation (population growth rate λ) were projected to increase 13-233% in a year, with the greatest increase at the most frequently disturbed site. Elasticity analysis revealed population growth at 3 of the 4 sites was primarily due to ramet survival between years and to year-to-year growth in shoot height and shoot biomass. Population growth at the fourth site, the most disturbed, was due to the large production of new rhizomes and associated shoots. In contrast to previous studies, our excavation revealed that most of the shoots were not interconnected, suggesting rhizome production may be limited by the size or age of the plants, resource availability, disturbance frequency, or other factors. Future integration of plant population models with more data on belowground growth structures will clarify the critical stages in Japanese knotweed life cycle and support land managers in their management decisions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joseph T. Dauer
- School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, Lincoln, Nebraska, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Eelke Jongejans
- Department of Animal Ecology and Ecophysiology, Radboud University, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
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46
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Differential effects of abandonment on the demography of the grassland perennial Succisa pratensis. POPUL ECOL 2013. [DOI: 10.1007/s10144-013-0400-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/26/2022]
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47
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Li SL, Yu FH, Werger MJA, Dong M, Ramula S, Zuidema PA. Understanding the effects of a new grazing policy: the impact of seasonal grazing on shrub demography in the Inner Mongolian steppe. J Appl Ecol 2013. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.12159] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Shou-Li Li
- State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change; Institute of Botany; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Beijing 100093 China
- Ecology & Biodiversity Group; Institute of Environmental Biology; Utrecht University; Padualaan 8 3584 CH Utrecht the Netherlands
- Section of Ecology; Department of Biology; University of Turku; 20014 Turku Finland
| | - Fei-Hai Yu
- State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change; Institute of Botany; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Beijing 100093 China
- School of Nature Conservation; Beijing Forestry University; Beijing 100083 China
| | - Marinus J. A. Werger
- Ecology & Biodiversity Group; Institute of Environmental Biology; Utrecht University; Padualaan 8 3584 CH Utrecht the Netherlands
| | - Ming Dong
- State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change; Institute of Botany; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Beijing 100093 China
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences; Hangzhou Normal University; Hangzhou 310036 China
| | - Satu Ramula
- Section of Ecology; Department of Biology; University of Turku; 20014 Turku Finland
- Aronia Coastal Zone Research Team; Åbo Akademi University; Raseborgsvägen 9 10600 Ekenäs Finland
| | - Pieter A. Zuidema
- Ecology & Biodiversity Group; Institute of Environmental Biology; Utrecht University; Padualaan 8 3584 CH Utrecht the Netherlands
- Forest Ecology and Forest Management group; Department of Environmental Sciences; Wageningen University; PO Box 47; 6700 AA Wageningen, the Netherlands
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48
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Salguero-Gómez R, Shefferson RP, Hutchings MJ. Plants do not count… or do they? New perspectives on the universality of senescence. THE JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY 2013; 101:545-554. [PMID: 23853389 PMCID: PMC3708120 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.12089] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/13/2013] [Accepted: 03/01/2013] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
1. Senescence, the physiological decline that results in decreasing survival and/or reproduction with age, remains one of the most perplexing topics in biology. Most theories explaining the evolution of senescence (i.e. antagonistic pleiotropy, accumulation of mutations, disposable soma) were developed decades ago. Even though these theories have implicitly focused on unitary animals, they have also been used as the foundation from which the universality of senescence across the tree of life is assumed. 2. Surprisingly, little is known about the general patterns, causes and consequences of whole-individual senescence in the plant kingdom. There are important differences between plants and most animals, including modular architecture, the absence of early determination of cell lines between the soma and gametes, and cellular division that does not always shorten telomere length. These characteristics violate the basic assumptions of the classical theories of senescence and therefore call the generality of senescence theories into question. 3. This Special Feature contributes to the field of whole-individual plant senescence with five research articles addressing topics ranging from physiology to demographic modelling and comparative analyses. These articles critically examine the basic assumptions of senescence theories such as age-specific gene action, the evolution of senescence regardless of the organism's architecture and environmental filtering, and the role of abiotic agents on mortality trajectories. 4.Synthesis. Understanding the conditions under which senescence has evolved is of general importance across biology, ecology, evolution, conservation biology, medicine, gerontology, law and social sciences. The question 'why is senescence universal or why is it not?' naturally calls for an evolutionary perspective. Senescence is a puzzling phenomenon, and new insights will be gained by uniting methods, theories and observations from formal demography, animal demography and plant population ecology. Plants are more amenable than animals to experiments investigating senescence, and there is a wealth of published plant demographic data that enable interpretation of experimental results in the context of their full life cycles. It is time to make plants count in the field of senescence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Roberto Salguero-Gómez
- Evolutionary Biodemography Laboratory, Max Planck Institute for Demographic ResearchKonrad-Zuße straße 1, 18057, Rostock, Germany
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, University of QueenslandGoddard Building #8, St Lucia, Qld, 4072, Australia
| | - Richard P Shefferson
- Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia140 East Green Street, Athens, GA, 30601, USA
| | - Michael J Hutchings
- School of Life Sciences, University of SussexFalmer, Brighton, Sussex, BN1 9QG, UK
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