Integral Projection Models for host-parasite systems with an application to amphibian chytrid fungus

Do fungi look like macroparasites? Quantifying the patterns and mechanisms of aggregation for host-fungal parasite relationships

Most hosts contain few parasites, whereas few hosts contain many. This pattern, known as aggregation, is well-documented in macroparasites where parasite intensity distribution among hosts affects host-parasite dynamics. Infection intensity also drives fungal disease dynamics, but we lack a basic understanding of host-fungal aggregation patterns, how they compare to macroparasites, and if they reflect biological processes. To address these gaps, we characterized aggregation of the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) in amphibian hosts. Utilizing the slope of Taylor's Power Law, we found Bd intensity distributions were more aggregated than macroparasites, conforming closely to lognormal distributions. We observed that Bd aggregation patterns are strongly correlated with known biological processes operating in amphibian populations, such as epizoological phase-invasion, post-invasion, and enzootic-and intensity-dependent disease mortality. Using intensity-dependent mathematical models, we found evidence of evolution of host resistance based on aggregation shifts in systems persisting with Bd following disease-induced declines. Our results show that Bd aggregation is highly conserved across disparate systems and is distinct from aggregation patterns in macroparasites, and contains signatures of potential biological processes of amphibian-Bd systems. Our work lays a foundation to unite host-fungal dynamics under a common theoretical framework and inform future modeling approaches that may elucidate host-fungus interactions.

Host density has limited effects on pathogen invasion, disease-induced declines and within-host infection dynamics across a landscape of disease

1. Host density is hypothesized to be a major driver of variability in the responses and outcomes of wildlife populations following pathogen invasion. While the effects of host density on pathogen transmission have been extensively studied, these studies are dominated by theoretical analyses and small-scale experiments. This focus leads to an incomplete picture regarding how host density drives observed variability in disease outcomes in the field. 2. Here, we leveraged a dataset of hundreds of replicate amphibian populations that varied by orders of magnitude in host density. We used these data to test the effects of host density on three outcomes following the arrival of the amphibian-killing fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd): the probability that Bd successfully invaded a host population and led to a pathogen outbreak, the magnitude of the host population-level decline following an outbreak and within-host infection dynamics that drive population-level outcomes in amphibian-pathogen systems. 3. Based on previous small-scale transmission experiments, we expected that populations with higher densities would be more likely to experience Bd outbreaks and would suffer larger proportional declines following outbreaks. To test these predictions, we developed and fitted a Hidden Markov Model that accounted for imperfectly observed disease outbreak states in the amphibian populations we surveyed. 4. Contrary to our predictions, we found minimal effects of host density on the probability of successful Bd invasion, the magnitude of population decline following Bd invasion and the dynamics of within-host infection intensity. Environmental conditions, such as summer temperature, winter severity and the presence of pathogen reservoirs, were more predictive of variability in disease outcomes. 5. Our results highlight the limitations of extrapolating findings from small-scale transmission experiments to observed disease trajectories in the field and provide strong evidence that variability in host density does not necessarily drive variability in host population responses following pathogen arrival. In an applied context, we show that feedbacks between host density and disease will not necessarily affect the success of reintroduction efforts in amphibian-Bd systems of conservation concern.

Are genetic variation and demographic performance linked?

Quantifying relationships between genetic variation and population viability is important from both basic biological and applied conservation perspectives, yet few populations have been monitored with both long-term demographic and population genetics approaches. To empirically test whether and how genetic variation and population dynamics are related, we present one such paired approach. First, we use eight years of historical demographic data from five populations of Boechera fecunda (Brassicaceae), a rare, self-compatible perennial plant endemic to Montana, USA, and use integral projection models to estimate the stochastic population growth rate (λ S) and extinction risk of each population. We then combine these demographic estimates with previously published metrics of genetic variation in the same populations to test whether genetic diversity within populations is linked to demographic performance. Our results show that in this predominantly inbred species, standing genetic variation and demography are weakly positively correlated. However, the inbreeding coefficient was not strongly correlated with demographic performance, suggesting that more inbred populations are not necessarily less viable or at higher extinction risk than less inbred populations. A contemporary re-census of these populations revealed that neither genetic nor demographic parameters were consistently strong predictors of current population density, although populations showing lower probabilities of extinction in demographic models had larger population sizes at present. In the absence of evidence for inbreeding depression decreasing population viability in this species, we recommend conservation of distinct, potentially locally adapted populations of B. fecunda rather than alternatives such as translocations or reintroductions.

No strong associations between temperature and the host-parasite interaction in wild stickleback

As climate change progresses, thermal stress is expected to alter the way that host organisms respond to infections by pathogens and parasites, with consequences for the fitness and therefore population processes of both host and parasite. The authors used a correlational natural experiment to examine how temperature differences shape the impact of the cestode parasite Schistocephalus solidus on its host, the three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus). Previous laboratory work has found that high temperatures benefit S. solidus while being detrimental to the stickleback. The present study sought to emulate this design in the wild, repeatedly sampling naturally infected and uninfected fish at matched warmer and cooler locations in the Baltic Sea. In this wild study, the authors found little evidence that temperature was associated with the host-parasite interaction. Although infection reduced host condition and reproductive status overall, these effects did not vary with temperature. Host fitness indicators correlated to some extent with temperature, with cooler capture sites associated with larger size but warmer sites with improved reproductive potential. Parasite fitness (prevalence or size) was not correlated with temperature at the capture site. These mismatches between laboratory and field outcomes illustrate how findings from well-controlled laboratory experiments may not fully reflect processes in more variable natural settings. Nonetheless, the findings of this study indicate that temperature can influence host fitness regardless of infection, with potential consequences for both host demography and parasite transmission dynamics in this complex system.

Once a reservoir, always a reservoir? Seasonality affects the pathogen maintenance potential of amphibian hosts

Host species that can independently maintain a pathogen in a host community and contribute to infection in other species are important targets for disease management. However, the potential of host species to maintain a pathogen is not fixed over time, and an important challenge is understanding how within- and across-season variability in host maintenance potential affects pathogen persistence over longer time scales relevant for disease management (e.g., years). Here, we sought to understand the causes and consequences of seasonal infection dynamics in leopard frogs (Rana sphenocephala and R. pipiens) infected with the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). We addressed three questions broadly applicable to seasonal host-parasite systems. First, to what degree are observed seasonal patterns in infection driven by temperature-dependent infection processes compared to seasonal host demographic processes? Second, how does seasonal variation in maintenance potential affect long-term pathogen persistence in multihost communities? Third, does high deterministic maintenance potential relate to the long-term stochastic persistence of pathogens in host populations with seasonal infection dynamics? To answer these questions, we used field data collected over three years on >1400 amphibians across four geographic locations, laboratory and mesocosm experiments, and a novel mathematical model. We found that the mechanisms that drive seasonal prevalence were different than those driving seasonal infection intensity. Seasonal variation in Bd prevalence was driven primarily by changes in host contact rates associated with breeding migrations to and from aquatic habitat. In contrast, seasonal changes in infection intensity were driven by temperature-induced changes in Bd growth rate. Using our model, we found that the maintenance potential of leopard frogs varied significantly throughout the year and that seasonal troughs in infection prevalence made it unlikely that leopard frogs were responsible for long-term Bd persistence in these seasonal amphibian communities, highlighting the importance of alternative pathogen reservoirs for Bd persistence. Our results have broad implications for management in seasonal host-pathogen systems, showing that seasonal changes in host and pathogen vital rates, rather than the depletion of susceptible hosts, can lead to troughs in pathogen prevalence and stochastic pathogen extirpation.

Host traits and environment interact to determine persistence of bat populations impacted by white-nose syndrome

Emerging infectious diseases have resulted in severe population declines across diverse taxa. In some instances, despite attributes associated with high extinction risk, disease emergence and host declines are followed by host stabilisation for unknown reasons. While host, pathogen, and the environment are recognised as important factors that interact to determine host-pathogen coexistence, they are often considered independently. Here, we use a translocation experiment to disentangle the role of host traits and environmental conditions in driving the persistence of remnant bat populations a decade after they declined 70-99% due to white-nose syndrome and subsequently stabilised. While survival was significantly higher than during the initial epidemic within all sites, protection from severe disease only existed within a narrow environmental space, suggesting host traits conducive to surviving disease are highly environmentally dependent. Ultimately, population persistence following pathogen invasion is the product of host-pathogen interactions that vary across a patchwork of environments.

Integrating Infection Intensity into Within- and Between-Host Pathogen Dynamics: Implications for Invasion and Virulence Evolution

AbstractInfection intensity can dictate disease outcomes but is typically ignored when modeling infection dynamics of microparasites (e.g., bacteria, virus, and fungi). However, for a number of pathogens of wildlife typically categorized as microparasites, accounting for infection intensity and within-host infection processes is critical for predicting population-level responses to pathogen invasion. Here, we develop a modeling framework we refer to as reduced-dimension host-parasite integral projection models (reduced IPMs) that we use to explore how within-host infection processes affect the dynamics of pathogen invasion and virulence evolution. We find that individual-level heterogeneity in pathogen load-a nearly ubiquitous characteristic of host-parasite interactions that is rarely considered in models of microparasites-generally reduces pathogen invasion probability and dampens virulence-transmission trade-offs in host-parasite systems. The latter effect likely contributes to widely predicted virulence-transmission trade-offs being difficult to observe empirically. Moreover, our analyses show that intensity-dependent host mortality does not always induce a virulence-transmission trade-off, and systems with steeper than linear relationships between pathogen intensity and host mortality rate are significantly more likely to exhibit these trade-offs. Overall, reduced IPMs provide a useful framework to expand our theoretical and data-driven understanding of how within-host processes affect population-level disease dynamics.

Why disease ecology needs life-history theory: a host perspective

When facing an emerging infectious disease of conservation concern, we often have little information on the nature of the host-parasite interaction to inform management decisions. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that the life-history strategies of host species can be predictive of individual- and population-level responses to infectious disease, even without detailed knowledge on the specifics of the host-parasite interaction. Here, we argue that a deeper integration of life-history theory into disease ecology is timely and necessary to improve our capacity to understand, predict and mitigate the impact of endemic and emerging infectious diseases in wild populations. Using wild vertebrates as an example, we show that host life-history characteristics influence host responses to parasitism at different levels of organisation, from individuals to communities. We also highlight knowledge gaps and future directions for the study of life-history and host responses to parasitism. We conclude by illustrating how this theoretical insight can inform the monitoring and control of infectious diseases in wildlife.

Significant reductions of host abundance weakly impact infection intensity of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis

Infectious diseases are considered major threats to biodiversity, however strategies to mitigate their impacts in the natural world are scarce and largely unsuccessful. Chytridiomycosis is responsible for the decline of hundreds of amphibian species worldwide, but an effective disease management strategy that could be applied across natural habitats is still lacking. In general amphibian larvae can be easily captured, offering opportunities to ascertain the impact of altering the abundance of hosts, considered to be a key parameter affecting the severity of the disease. Here, we report the results of two experiments to investigate how altering host abundance affects infection intensity in amphibian populations of a montane area of Central Spain suffering from lethal amphibian chytridiomycosis. Our laboratory-based experiment supported the conclusion that varying density had a significant effect on infection intensity when salamander larvae were housed at low densities. Our field experiment showed that reducing the abundance of salamander larvae in the field also had a significant, but weak, impact on infection the following year, but only when removals were extreme. While this suggests adjusting host abundance as a mitigation strategy to reduce infection intensity could be useful, our evidence suggests only heavy culling efforts will succeed, which may run contrary to objectives for conservation.

Immunological Aspects of Chytridiomycosis

Amphibians are currently the most threatened vertebrate class, with the disease chytridiomycosis being a major contributor to their global declines. Chytridiomycosis is a frequently fatal skin disease caused by the fungal pathogens Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal). The severity and extent of the impact of the infection caused by these pathogens across modern Amphibia are unprecedented in the history of vertebrate infectious diseases. The immune system of amphibians is thought to be largely similar to that of other jawed vertebrates, such as mammals. However, amphibian hosts are both ectothermic and water-dependent, which are characteristics favouring fungal proliferation. Although amphibians possess robust constitutive host defences, Bd/Bsal replicate within host cells once these defences have been breached. Intracellular fungal localisation may contribute to evasion of the induced innate immune response. Increasing evidence suggests that once the innate defences are surpassed, fungal virulence factors suppress the targeted adaptive immune responses whilst promoting an ineffectual inflammatory cascade, resulting in immunopathology and systemic metabolic disruption. Thus, although infections are contained within the integument, crucial homeostatic processes become compromised, leading to mortality. In this paper, we present an integrated synthesis of amphibian post-metamorphic immunological responses and the corresponding outcomes of infection with Bd, focusing on recent developments within the field and highlighting future directions.

Mechanisms underlying host persistence following amphibian disease emergence determine appropriate management strategies

Emerging infectious diseases have caused many species declines, changes in communities and even extinctions. There are also many species that persist following devastating declines due to disease. The broad mechanisms that enable host persistence following declines include evolution of resistance or tolerance, changes in immunity and behaviour, compensatory recruitment, pathogen attenuation, environmental refugia, density-dependent transmission and changes in community composition. Here we examine the case of chytridiomycosis, the most important wildlife disease of the past century. We review the full breadth of mechanisms allowing host persistence, and synthesise research on host, pathogen, environmental and community factors driving persistence following chytridiomycosis-related declines and overview the current evidence and the information required to support each mechanism. We found that for most species the mechanisms facilitating persistence have not been identified. We illustrate how the mechanisms that drive long-term host population dynamics determine the most effective conservation management strategies. Therefore, understanding mechanisms of host persistence is important because many species continue to be threatened by disease, some of which will require intervention. The conceptual framework we describe is broadly applicable to other novel disease systems.

Phylogenetic investigation of skin sloughing rates in frogs: relationships with skin characteristics and disease-driven declines

Amphibian skin is highly variable in structure and function across anurans, and plays an important role in physiological homeostasis and immune defence. For example, skin sloughing has been shown to reduce pathogen loads on the skin, such as the lethal fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ( Bd), but interspecific variation in sloughing frequency is largely unknown. Using phylogenetic linear mixed models, we assessed the relationship between skin turnover rate, skin morphology, ecological traits and overall evidence of Bd-driven declines. We examined skin sloughing rates in 21 frog species from three continents, as well as structural skin characteristics measured from preserved specimens. We found that sloughing rate varies significantly with phylogenetic group, but was not associated with evidence of Bd-driven declines, or other skin characteristics examined. This is the first comparison of sloughing rate across a wide range of amphibian species, and creates the first database of amphibian sloughing behaviour. Given the strong phylogenetic signal observed in sloughing rate, approximate sloughing rates of related species may be predicted based on phylogenetic position. While not related to available evidence of declines, understanding variation in sloughing rate may help explain differences in the severity of infection in genera with relatively slow skin turnover rates (e.g. Atelopus).

Individual and temporal variation in pathogen load predicts long-term impacts of an emerging infectious disease

Emerging infectious diseases increasingly threaten wildlife populations. Most studies focus on managing short-term epidemic properties, such as controlling early outbreaks. Predicting long-term endemic characteristics with limited retrospective data is more challenging. We used individual-based modeling informed by individual variation in pathogen load and transmissibility to predict long-term impacts of a lethal, transmissible cancer on Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) populations. For this, we employed approximate Bayesian computation to identify model scenarios that best matched known epidemiological and demographic system properties derived from 10 yr of data after disease emergence, enabling us to forecast future system dynamics. We show that the dramatic devil population declines observed thus far are likely attributable to transient dynamics (initial dynamics after disease emergence). Only 21% of matching scenarios led to devil extinction within 100 yr following devil facial tumor disease (DFTD) introduction, whereas DFTD faded out in 57% of simulations. In the remaining 22% of simulations, disease and host coexisted for at least 100 yr, usually with long-period oscillations. Our findings show that pathogen extirpation or host-pathogen coexistence are much more likely than the DFTD-induced devil extinction, with crucial management ramifications. Accounting for individual-level disease progression and the long-term outcome of devil-DFTD interactions at the population-level, our findings suggest that immediate management interventions are unlikely to be necessary to ensure the persistence of Tasmanian devil populations. This is because strong population declines of devils after disease emergence do not necessarily translate into long-term population declines at equilibria. Our modeling approach is widely applicable to other host-pathogen systems to predict disease impact beyond transient dynamics.

Evolutionary rescue in a host-pathogen system results in coexistence not clearance

The evolutionary rescue of host populations may prevent extinction from novel pathogens. However, the conditions that facilitate rapid evolution of hosts, in particular the population variation in host susceptibility, and the effects of host evolution in response to pathogens on population outcomes remain largely unknown. We constructed an individual-based model to determine the relationships between genetic variation in host susceptibility and population persistence in an amphibian-fungal pathogen (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) system. We found that host populations can rapidly evolve reduced susceptibility to a novel pathogen and that this rapid evolution led to a 71-fold increase in the likelihood of host-pathogen coexistence. However, the increased rates of coexistence came at a cost to host populations; fewer populations cleared infection, population sizes were depressed, and neutral genetic diversity was lost. Larger adult host population sizes and greater adaptive genetic variation prior to the onset of pathogen introduction led to substantially reduced rates of extinction, suggesting that populations with these characteristics should be prioritized for conservation when species are threatened by novel infectious diseases.

Vaccine Effects on Heterogeneity in Susceptibility and Implications for Population Health Management

Heterogeneity in host susceptibility is a key determinant of infectious disease dynamics but is rarely accounted for in assessment of disease control measures. Understanding how susceptibility is distributed in populations, and how control measures change this distribution, is integral to predicting the course of epidemics with and without interventions. Using multiple experimental and modeling approaches, we show that rainbow trout have relatively homogeneous susceptibility to infection with infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus and that vaccination increases heterogeneity in susceptibility in a nearly all-or-nothing fashion. In a simple transmission model with an R₀ of 2, the highly heterogeneous vaccine protection would cause a 35 percentage-point reduction in outbreak size over an intervention inducing homogenous protection at the same mean level. More broadly, these findings provide validation of methodology that can help to reduce biases in predictions of vaccine impact in natural settings and provide insight into how vaccination shapes population susceptibility.

Differences among individuals influence transmission and spread of infectious diseases as well as the effectiveness of control measures. Control measures, such as vaccines, may provide leaky protection, protecting all hosts to an identical degree, or all-or-nothing protection, protecting some hosts completely while leaving others completely unprotected. This distinction can have a dramatic influence on disease dynamics, yet this distribution of protection is frequently unaccounted for in epidemiological models and estimates of vaccine efficacy. Here, we apply new methodology to experimentally examine host heterogeneity in susceptibility and mode of vaccine action as distinct components influencing disease outcome. Through multiple experiments and new modeling approaches, we show that the distribution of vaccine effects can be robustly estimated. These results offer new experimental and inferential methodology that can improve predictions of vaccine effectiveness and have broad applicability to human, wildlife, and ecosystem health.

Resistance, tolerance and environmental transmission dynamics determine host extinction risk in a load-dependent amphibian disease

While disease-induced extinction is generally considered rare, a number of recently emerging infectious diseases with load-dependent pathology have led to extinction in wildlife populations. Transmission is a critical factor affecting disease-induced extinction, but the relative importance of transmission compared to load-dependent host resistance and tolerance is currently unknown. Using a combination of models and experiments on an amphibian species suffering extirpations from the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), we show that while transmission from an environmental Bd reservoir increased the ability of Bd to invade an amphibian population and the extinction risk of that population, Bd-induced extinction dynamics were far more sensitive to host resistance and tolerance than to Bd transmission. We demonstrate that this is a general result for load-dependent pathogens, where non-linear resistance and tolerance functions can interact such that small changes in these functions lead to drastic changes in extinction dynamics.