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O’Hare K, Watkeys O, Dean K, Laurens KR, Tzoumakis S, Harris F, Carr VJ, Green MJ. Childhood Schizotypy and Adolescent Mental Disorder. Schizophr Bull 2024; 50:69-77. [PMID: 37665656 PMCID: PMC10754169 DOI: 10.1093/schbul/sbad132] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 09/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS Schizotypy provides a framework for understanding the developmental nature of psychotic disorders and a means of identifying "at-risk" individuals early in the lifespan. However, there is a lack of prospective longitudinal research examining the relationship between schizotypy in childhood and later psychotic and other mental disorders. We hypothesized that distinct profiles of schizotypy in childhood would be differentially associated with psychotic and other mental disorders emerging later in adolescence. STUDY DESIGN In a large population cohort of Australian young people (n = 26 837), we prospectively examined the relationship between person-centered profiles of schizotypy identified in middle childhood (age ~11 years) and adolescent diagnoses (age ~13-18 years) across 7 types of mental disorders using multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS Membership in any of 3 childhood schizotypy profiles (true schizotypy, affective schizotypy, or introverted schizotypy) was associated with an increased likelihood of being diagnosed with any type of mental disorder in adolescence; effects were strongest for the true schizotypy group (aOR = 3.07, 95% CI = 2.64, 3.57), followed by the introverted (aOR = 1.94, 95% CI = 1.75, 2.15) and affective (aOR = 1.29, 95% CI = 1.13, 1.47) schizotypy groups. Six of the 7 types of mental disorders measured (including psychotic disorders) were associated with at least 1 schizotypy group. CONCLUSIONS Schizotypy in middle childhood is an important correlate of mental disorders in adolescence; however, it does not appear to be specifically associated with psychotic disorders in this age group.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kirstie O’Hare
- School of Clinical Medicine, Discipline of Psychiatry and Mental Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
| | - Oliver Watkeys
- School of Clinical Medicine, Discipline of Psychiatry and Mental Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
| | - Kimberlie Dean
- School of Clinical Medicine, Discipline of Psychiatry and Mental Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
- Justice Health and Forensic Mental Health Network, Sydney, Australia
| | - Kristin R Laurens
- School of Clinical Medicine, Discipline of Psychiatry and Mental Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
- Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Psychology and Counselling, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Stacy Tzoumakis
- School of Clinical Medicine, Discipline of Psychiatry and Mental Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
- School of Criminology and Criminal Justice, Griffith University, Southport, Australia
| | - Felicity Harris
- School of Clinical Medicine, Discipline of Psychiatry and Mental Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
| | - Vaughan J Carr
- School of Clinical Medicine, Discipline of Psychiatry and Mental Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
- Neuroscience Research Australia, Sydney, Australia
- Department of Psychiatry, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Melissa J Green
- School of Clinical Medicine, Discipline of Psychiatry and Mental Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
- Neuroscience Research Australia, Sydney, Australia
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Milne RJ, Dibley KE, Bose J, Ashton AR, Ryan PR, Tyerman SD, Lagudah ES. Expression of the wheat multipathogen resistance hexose transporter Lr67res is associated with anion fluxes. Plant Physiol 2023; 192:1254-1267. [PMID: 36806945 DOI: 10.1093/plphys/kiad104] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/14/2022] [Revised: 01/24/2023] [Accepted: 01/29/2023] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
Many disease resistance genes in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) confer strong resistance to specific pathogen races or strains, and only a small number of genes confer multipathogen resistance. The Leaf rust resistance 67 (Lr67) gene fits into the latter category as it confers partial resistance to multiple biotrophic fungal pathogens in wheat and encodes a Sugar Transport Protein 13 (STP13) family hexose-proton symporter variant. Two mutations (G144R, V387L) in the resistant variant, Lr67res, differentiate it from the susceptible Lr67sus variant. The molecular function of the Lr67res protein is not understood, and this study aimed to broaden our knowledge on this topic. Biophysical analysis of the wheat Lr67sus and Lr67res protein variants was performed using Xenopus laevis oocytes as a heterologous expression system. Oocytes injected with Lr67sus displayed properties typically associated with proton-coupled sugar transport proteins-glucose-dependent inward currents, a Km of 110 ± 10 µM glucose, and a substrate selectivity permitting the transport of pentoses and hexoses. By contrast, Lr67res induced much larger sugar-independent inward currents in oocytes, implicating an alternative function. Since Lr67res is a mutated hexose-proton symporter, the possibility of protons underlying these currents was investigated but rejected. Instead, currents in Lr67res oocytes appeared to be dominated by anions. This conclusion was supported by electrophysiology and 36Cl- uptake studies and the similarities with oocytes expressing the known chloride channel from Torpedo marmorata, TmClC-0. This study provides insights into the function of an important disease resistance gene in wheat, which can be used to determine how this gene variant underpins disease resistance in planta.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ricky J Milne
- CSIRO, Agriculture and Food, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
| | | | - Jayakumar Bose
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence in Plant Energy Biology, School of Agriculture, Food and Wine, University of Adelaide, Urrbrae, SA 5064, Australia
- School of Science, Western Sydney University, Richmond, NSW 2753, Australia
| | | | - Peter R Ryan
- CSIRO, Agriculture and Food, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
| | - Stephen D Tyerman
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence in Plant Energy Biology, School of Agriculture, Food and Wine, University of Adelaide, Urrbrae, SA 5064, Australia
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O’Hare K, Watkeys O, Whitten T, Dean K, Laurens KR, Tzoumakis S, Harris F, Carr VJ, Green MJ. Cumulative Environmental Risk in Early Life: Associations With Schizotypy in Childhood. Schizophr Bull 2023; 49:244-254. [PMID: 36302227 PMCID: PMC10016419 DOI: 10.1093/schbul/sbac160] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS Psychotic disorders are associated with a growing number of recognized environmental exposures. Cumulative exposure to multiple environmental risk factors in childhood may contribute to the development of different patterns of schizotypy evident in early life. Hypotheses were that distinct profiles of schizotypy would have differential associations with a cumulative score of environmental risk factors. STUDY DESIGN We prospectively examined the relationship between 19 environmental exposures (which had demonstrated replicated associations with psychosis) measured from the prenatal period through to age 11 years, and 3 profiles of schizotypy in children (mean age = 11.9 years, n = 20 599) that have been established in population data from the New South Wales-Child Development Study. Multinomial logistic regression was used to examine associations between membership in each of 3 schizotypy profiles (true schizotypy, introverted schizotypy, and affective schizotypy) and exposure to a range of 19 environmental risk factors for psychosis (both individually and summed as a cumulative environmental risk score [ERS]), relative to children showing no risk. RESULTS Almost all environmental factors were associated with at least 1 schizotypy profile. The cumulative ERS was most strongly associated with the true schizotypy profile (OR = 1.61, 95% CI = 1.52-1.70), followed by the affective (OR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.28-1.38), and introverted (OR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.28-1.37) schizotypy profiles. CONCLUSIONS Consistent with the cumulative risk hypothesis, results indicate that an increased number of risk exposures is associated with an increased likelihood of membership in the 3 schizotypy profiles identified in middle childhood, relative to children with no schizotypy profile.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kirstie O’Hare
- Discipline of Psychiatry and Mental Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
| | - Oliver Watkeys
- Discipline of Psychiatry and Mental Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
- Neuroscience Research Australia, Sydney, Australia
| | - Tyson Whitten
- Discipline of Psychiatry and Mental Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
- School of Social Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Kimberlie Dean
- Discipline of Psychiatry and Mental Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
- Justice Health and Forensic Mental Health Network, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Kristin R Laurens
- Discipline of Psychiatry and Mental Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
- Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Psychology and Counselling, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Stacy Tzoumakis
- School of Criminology and Criminal Justice, Griffith University, Southport, Australia
- Griffith Criminology Institute, Griffith University, Southport, Australia
| | - Felicity Harris
- Discipline of Psychiatry and Mental Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
| | - Vaughan J Carr
- Discipline of Psychiatry and Mental Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
- Neuroscience Research Australia, Sydney, Australia
- Department of Psychiatry, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Melissa J Green
- Discipline of Psychiatry and Mental Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
- Neuroscience Research Australia, Sydney, Australia
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Vine W, Savytskyi M, Vaartjes A, Kringhøj A, Parker D, Slack-Smith J, Schenkel T, Mølmer K, McCallum JC, Johnson BC, Morello A, Pla JJ. In situ amplification of spin echoes within a kinetic inductance parametric amplifier. Sci Adv 2023; 9:eadg1593. [PMID: 36897947 PMCID: PMC10005168 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adg1593] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/06/2022] [Accepted: 02/08/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
The use of superconducting microresonators together with quantum-limited Josephson parametric amplifiers has enhanced the sensitivity of pulsed electron spin resonance (ESR) measurements by more than four orders of magnitude. So far, the microwave resonators and amplifiers have been designed as separate components due to the incompatibility of Josephson junction-based devices with magnetic fields. This has produced complex spectrometers and raised technical barriers toward adoption of the technique. Here, we circumvent this issue by coupling an ensemble of spins directly to a weakly nonlinear and magnetic field-resilient superconducting microwave resonator. We perform pulsed ESR measurements with a 1-pL mode volume containing 6 × 107 spins and amplify the resulting signals within the device. When considering only those spins that contribute to the detected signals, we find a sensitivity of [Formula: see text] for a Hahn echo sequence at a temperature of 400 mK. In situ amplification is demonstrated at fields up to 254 mT, highlighting the technique's potential for application under conventional ESR operating conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wyatt Vine
- School of Electrical Engineering and Telecommunications, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
| | - Mykhailo Savytskyi
- School of Electrical Engineering and Telecommunications, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
| | - Arjen Vaartjes
- School of Electrical Engineering and Telecommunications, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
| | - Anders Kringhøj
- School of Electrical Engineering and Telecommunications, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
| | - Daniel Parker
- School of Electrical Engineering and Telecommunications, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
| | - James Slack-Smith
- School of Electrical Engineering and Telecommunications, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
| | - Thomas Schenkel
- Accelerator Technology and Applied Physics Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
| | - Klaus Mølmer
- Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Blegdamsvej 17, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | | | | | - Andrea Morello
- School of Electrical Engineering and Telecommunications, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
| | - Jarryd J. Pla
- School of Electrical Engineering and Telecommunications, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
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O'Hare K, Watkeys O, Badcock JC, Laurens KR, Tzoumakis S, Dean K, Harris F, Carr VJ, Green MJ. Pathways from developmental vulnerabilities in early childhood to schizotypy in middle childhood. Br J Clin Psychol 2023; 62:228-242. [PMID: 36458518 PMCID: PMC10946562 DOI: 10.1111/bjc.12405] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/11/2022] [Accepted: 11/14/2022] [Indexed: 12/03/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Childhood disturbances in social, emotional, language, motor and cognitive functioning, and schizotypy have each been implicated as precursors of schizophrenia-spectrum disorders. We investigated whether relationships between early childhood developmental vulnerabilities and childhood schizotypy are mediated by educational underachievement in middle childhood. METHODS Participants were members of a large Australian (n = 19,216) population cohort followed longitudinally. Path analyses were used to model relationships between developmental vulnerabilities at age ~5 years, educational underachievement from ages ~8 to 10 years and three distinct profiles of schizotypy at age ~11 years (true, introverted and affective schizotypy). RESULTS Early childhood developmental vulnerabilities on five broad domains (related to physical, emotional, social, cognitive and communication development) were associated with schizotypy profiles in middle childhood. Educational underachievement in middle childhood was associated with all schizotypy profiles, but most strongly with the true schizotypy profile (OR = 3.92, 95% CI = 3.12, 4.91). The relationships between schizotypy profiles and early childhood developmental vulnerabilities in 'language and cognitive skills (school-based)' and 'communication skills and general knowledge' domains were fully mediated by educational underachievement in middle childhood, and the relationships with early childhood 'physical health and well-being' and 'emotional maturity' domains were partially mediated. CONCLUSION Developmental continuity from early childhood developmental vulnerabilities to schizotypy in middle childhood is mediated by educational underachievement in middle childhood. While some domains of early developmental functioning showed differential relationships with distinct schizotypy profiles, these findings support a developmental pathway to schizotypy in which cognitive vulnerability operates from early childhood through to middle childhood.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kirstie O'Hare
- Discipline of Psychiatry and Mental Health, School of Clinical MedicineUniversity of New South WalesSydneyNSWAustralia
| | - Oliver Watkeys
- Discipline of Psychiatry and Mental Health, School of Clinical MedicineUniversity of New South WalesSydneyNSWAustralia
| | - Johanna C. Badcock
- School of Psychological ScienceUniversity of Western AustraliaPerthWAAustralia
| | - Kristin R. Laurens
- Discipline of Psychiatry and Mental Health, School of Clinical MedicineUniversity of New South WalesSydneyNSWAustralia
- School of Psychology and CounsellingQueensland University of Technology (QUT)BrisbaneQldAustralia
| | - Stacy Tzoumakis
- Discipline of Psychiatry and Mental Health, School of Clinical MedicineUniversity of New South WalesSydneyNSWAustralia
- School of Criminology and Criminal JusticeGriffith UniversitySouthportQldAustralia
| | - Kimberlie Dean
- Discipline of Psychiatry and Mental Health, School of Clinical MedicineUniversity of New South WalesSydneyNSWAustralia
- Justice Health and Forensic Mental Health NetworkSydneyNSWAustralia
| | - Felicity Harris
- Discipline of Psychiatry and Mental Health, School of Clinical MedicineUniversity of New South WalesSydneyNSWAustralia
| | - Vaughan J. Carr
- Discipline of Psychiatry and Mental Health, School of Clinical MedicineUniversity of New South WalesSydneyNSWAustralia
- Neuroscience Research AustraliaSydneyNSWAustralia
- Department of PsychiatryMonash UniversityMelbourneVic.Australia
| | - Melissa J. Green
- Discipline of Psychiatry and Mental Health, School of Clinical MedicineUniversity of New South WalesSydneyNSWAustralia
- Neuroscience Research AustraliaSydneyNSWAustralia
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van der Ent A, de Jonge MD, Echevarria G, Aarts MGM, Mesjasz-Przybyłowicz J, Przybyłowicz WJ, Brueckner D, Harris HH. OUP accepted manuscript. Metallomics 2022; 14:6615454. [PMID: 35746898 PMCID: PMC9226517 DOI: 10.1093/mtomcs/mfac026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/30/2021] [Accepted: 03/18/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022]
Abstract
The molecular biology and genetics of the Ni–Cd–Zn hyperaccumulator Noccaea caerulescens has been extensively studied, but no information is yet available on Ni and Zn redistribution and mobilization during seed germination. Due to the different physiological functions of these elements, and their associated transporter pathways, we expected differential tissue distribution and different modes of translocation of Ni and Zn during germination. This study used synchrotron X-ray fluorescence tomography techniques as well as planar elemental X-ray imaging to elucidate elemental (re)distribution at various stages of the germination process in contrasting accessions of N. caerulescens. The results show that Ni and Zn are both located primarily in the cotyledons of the emerging seedlings and Ni is highest in the ultramafic accessions (up to 0.15 wt%), whereas Zn is highest in the calamine accession (up to 600 μg g–1). The distribution of Ni and Zn in seeds was very similar, and neither element was translocated during germination. The Fe maps were especially useful to obtain spatial reference within the seeds, as it clearly marked the vasculature. This study shows how a multimodal combination of synchrotron techniques can be used to obtain powerful insights about the metal distribution in physically intact seeds and seedlings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Antony van der Ent
- Correspondence: Centre for Mined Land Rehabilitation, Sustainable Minerals Institute (SMI), Level 5, Sir James Foots Building (No. 47A), The University of Queensland, St Lucia QLD 4072, Australia. Tel: +61 7 3346 4003; E-mail:
| | | | - Guillaume Echevarria
- Laboratoire Sols et Environnement, Université de Lorraine-INRAE, Vandœuvre-lés-Nancy, UMR 1120, France
| | - Mark G M Aarts
- Laboratory of Genetics, Wageningen University and Research, The Netherlands
| | | | - Wojciech J Przybyłowicz
- Department of Botany and Zoology, Stellenbosch University, Matieland 7602, South Africa
- AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Physics & Applied Computer Science, 30-059 Kraków, Poland
| | - Dennis Brueckner
- Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron DESY, 22607 Hamburg, Germany
- Department of Physics, Universität Hamburg, 20355 Hamburg, Germany
- Faculty of Chemistry and Biochemistry, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, 44801 Bochum, Germany
| | - Hugh H Harris
- Department of Chemistry, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide 5005, Australia
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Starobova H, Monteleone M, Adolphe C, Batoon L, Sandrock CJ, Tay B, Deuis JR, Smith AV, Mueller A, Nadar EI, Lawrence GP, Mayor A, Tolson E, Levesque JP, Pettit AR, Wainwright BJ, Schroder K, Vetter I. Vincristine-induced peripheral neuropathy is driven by canonical NLRP3 activation and IL-1β release. J Exp Med 2021; 218:e20201452. [PMID: 33656514 PMCID: PMC7933984 DOI: 10.1084/jem.20201452] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/09/2020] [Revised: 12/09/2020] [Accepted: 01/19/2021] [Indexed: 12/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Vincristine is an important component of many regimens used for pediatric and adult malignancies, but it causes a dose-limiting sensorimotor neuropathy for which there is no effective treatment. This study aimed to delineate the neuro-inflammatory mechanisms contributing to the development of mechanical allodynia and gait disturbances in a murine model of vincristine-induced neuropathy, as well as to identify novel treatment approaches. Here, we show that vincristine-induced peripheral neuropathy is driven by activation of the NLRP3 inflammasome and subsequent release of interleukin-1β from macrophages, with mechanical allodynia and gait disturbances significantly reduced in knockout mice lacking NLRP3 signaling pathway components, or after treatment with the NLRP3 inhibitor MCC950. Moreover, treatment with the IL-1 receptor antagonist anakinra prevented the development of vincristine-induced neuropathy without adversely affecting chemotherapy efficacy or tumor progression in patient-derived medulloblastoma xenograph models. These results detail the neuro-inflammatory mechanisms leading to vincristine-induced peripheral neuropathy and suggest that repurposing anakinra may be an effective co-treatment strategy to prevent vincristine-induced peripheral neuropathy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hana Starobova
- Institute for Molecular Bioscience, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia
| | - Mercedes Monteleone
- Institute for Molecular Bioscience, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia
| | - Christelle Adolphe
- Institute for Molecular Bioscience, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia
| | - Lena Batoon
- Mater Research Institute and Faculty of Medicine, The University of Queensland, Woolloongabba, Queensland, Australia
- Translational Research Institute, Woolloongabba, Queensland, Australia
| | - Cheyenne J. Sandrock
- Mater Research Institute and Faculty of Medicine, The University of Queensland, Woolloongabba, Queensland, Australia
- Translational Research Institute, Woolloongabba, Queensland, Australia
| | - Bryan Tay
- Institute for Molecular Bioscience, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia
| | - Jennifer R. Deuis
- Institute for Molecular Bioscience, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia
| | - Alexandra V. Smith
- Institute for Molecular Bioscience, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia
| | - Alexander Mueller
- Institute for Molecular Bioscience, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia
| | - Evelyn Israel Nadar
- Institute for Molecular Bioscience, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia
| | - Grace Pamo Lawrence
- Institute for Molecular Bioscience, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia
| | - Amanda Mayor
- Institute for Molecular Bioscience, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia
| | - Elissa Tolson
- Institute for Molecular Bioscience, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia
| | - Jean-Pierre Levesque
- Mater Research Institute and Faculty of Medicine, The University of Queensland, Woolloongabba, Queensland, Australia
- Translational Research Institute, Woolloongabba, Queensland, Australia
| | - Allison R. Pettit
- Mater Research Institute and Faculty of Medicine, The University of Queensland, Woolloongabba, Queensland, Australia
- Translational Research Institute, Woolloongabba, Queensland, Australia
| | - Brandon J. Wainwright
- Institute for Molecular Bioscience, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia
| | - Kate Schroder
- Institute for Molecular Bioscience, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia
| | - Irina Vetter
- Institute for Molecular Bioscience, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia
- The School of Pharmacy, The University of Queensland, Woolloongabba, Queensland, Australia
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Wells K, Hamede RK, Jones ME, Hohenlohe PA, Storfer A, McCallum HI. Individual and temporal variation in pathogen load predicts long-term impacts of an emerging infectious disease. Ecology 2019; 100:e02613. [PMID: 30636287 PMCID: PMC6415924 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.2613] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2018] [Revised: 10/20/2018] [Accepted: 12/20/2018] [Indexed: 01/06/2023]
Abstract
Emerging infectious diseases increasingly threaten wildlife populations. Most studies focus on managing short-term epidemic properties, such as controlling early outbreaks. Predicting long-term endemic characteristics with limited retrospective data is more challenging. We used individual-based modeling informed by individual variation in pathogen load and transmissibility to predict long-term impacts of a lethal, transmissible cancer on Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) populations. For this, we employed approximate Bayesian computation to identify model scenarios that best matched known epidemiological and demographic system properties derived from 10 yr of data after disease emergence, enabling us to forecast future system dynamics. We show that the dramatic devil population declines observed thus far are likely attributable to transient dynamics (initial dynamics after disease emergence). Only 21% of matching scenarios led to devil extinction within 100 yr following devil facial tumor disease (DFTD) introduction, whereas DFTD faded out in 57% of simulations. In the remaining 22% of simulations, disease and host coexisted for at least 100 yr, usually with long-period oscillations. Our findings show that pathogen extirpation or host-pathogen coexistence are much more likely than the DFTD-induced devil extinction, with crucial management ramifications. Accounting for individual-level disease progression and the long-term outcome of devil-DFTD interactions at the population-level, our findings suggest that immediate management interventions are unlikely to be necessary to ensure the persistence of Tasmanian devil populations. This is because strong population declines of devils after disease emergence do not necessarily translate into long-term population declines at equilibria. Our modeling approach is widely applicable to other host-pathogen systems to predict disease impact beyond transient dynamics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Konstans Wells
- Department of Biosciences, Swansea University, Singleton Campus, Wallace Building, Swansea, SA2 8PP, United Kingdom
- Environmental Futures Research Institute, Griffith University, Brisbane, Queensland, 4111, Australia
| | - Rodrigo K Hamede
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001, Australia
| | - Menna E Jones
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001, Australia
| | - Paul A Hohenlohe
- Department of Biological Sciences, Institute for Bioinformatics and Evolutionary Studies, University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho, 83844, USA
| | - Andrew Storfer
- School of Biological Sciences, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington, 99164-4236, USA
| | - Hamish I McCallum
- Environmental Futures Research Institute, Griffith University, Brisbane, Queensland, 4111, Australia
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