R2ucare: An r package to perform goodness‐of‐fit tests for capture–recapture models

Synchrony in adult survival is remarkably strong among common temperate songbirds across France

Synchronous variation in demographic parameters across species increases the risk of simultaneous local extinction, which lowers the probability of subsequent recolonization. Synchrony therefore tends to destabilize meta-populations and meta-communities. Quantifying interspecific synchrony in demographic parameters, like abundance, survival, or reproduction, is thus a way to indirectly assess the stability of meta-populations and meta-communities. Moreover, it is particularly informative to identify environmental drivers of interspecific synchrony because those drivers are important across species. Using a Bayesian hierarchical multisite multispecies mark-recapture model, we investigated temporal interspecific synchrony in annual adult apparent survival for 16 common songbird species across France for the period 2001-2016. Annual adult survival was largely synchronous among species (73%, 95% credible interval [47%-94%] of the variation among years was common to all species), despite species differing in ecological niche and life history. This result was robust to different model formulations, uneven species sample sizes, and removing the long-term trend in survival. Synchrony was also shared across migratory strategies, which suggests that environmental forcing during the 4-month temperate breeding season has a large-scale, interspecific impact on songbird survival. However, the strong interspecific synchrony was not easily explained by a set of candidate weather variables we defined a priori. Spring weather variables explained only 1.4% [0.01%-5.5%] of synchrony, while the contribution of large-scale winter weather indices may have been stronger but uncertain, accounting for 12% [0.3%-37%] of synchrony. Future research could jointly model interspecific variation and covariation in breeding success, age-dependent survival, and age-dependent dispersal to understand when interspecific synchrony in abundance emerges and destabilizes meta-communities.

Inter-colony variation in predation, mercury burden and adult survival in a declining seabird

Migratory species with disjunct and localized breeding distributions, including many colonial marine birds, pose challenges for management and conservation as their dynamics are shaped by both broad oceanographic changes and specific factors affecting individual breeding colonies. We compare six colonies of the declining Leach's storm-petrel, Hydrobates leucorhous, across their core range in Atlantic Canada using standard capture-mark-recapture methods to estimate annual survival of individually marked populations of breeding adults. Over the period analysed (5-20 years per colony; 2003-2022), mean annual survival varied among colonies (0.81-0.88) and annually (process error σ ranging from 0.01 to 0.09), though annual fluctuations were not synchronous across colonies. Two colonies with limited natural predation showed higher survival, and there was a decline in survival with increasing colony-specific total mercury burden. Our work shows that colony-specific pressures and regional contaminant burdens are potentially important contributors to current population declines, and highlights the importance of monitoring demographic rates at multiple sites for species that congregate at key life-history stages.

The role of tropical rainfall in driving range dynamics for a long-distance migratory bird

Predicting how the range dynamics of migratory species will respond to climate change requires a mechanistic understanding of the factors that operate across the annual cycle to control the distribution and abundance of a species. Here, we use multiple lines of evidence to reveal that environmental conditions during the nonbreeding season influence range dynamics across the life cycle of a migratory songbird, the American redstart (Setophaga ruticilla). Using long-term data from the nonbreeding grounds and breeding origins estimated from stable hydrogen isotopes in tail feathers, we found that the relationship between annual survival and migration distance is mediated by precipitation, but only during dry years. A long-term drying trend throughout the Caribbean is associated with higher mortality for individuals from the northern portion of the species' breeding range, resulting in an approximate 500 km southward shift in breeding origins of this Jamaican population over the past 30 y. This shift in connectivity is mirrored by changes in the redstart's breeding distribution and abundance. These results demonstrate that the climatic effects on demographic processes originating during the tropical nonbreeding season are actively shaping range dynamics in a migratory bird.

Birth date determines early calf survival in migratory caribou

The decline of most caribou (Rangifer tarandus) populations underlines the need to understand the determinants of key demographic parameters. In migratory caribou, we have limited information on rates and drivers of pre-weaning mortality. We fitted 60 pregnant females of the Rivière-aux-Feuilles caribou herd with GPS camera collars to track the survival of calves from birth to weaning in 2016-2018. Over the three years, calf survival rate before weaning, i.e. to 01-Sep, approximately three months of age, was 0.63 (CI 0.50-0.77). Summer mortality risk was mainly influenced by calf birth date, with calves born earlier in the calving season having a lower mortality risk than those born later. Mortality also increased when calves experienced low or high temperature during calving. This study provides the first estimates of pre-weaning survival of migratory caribou calves in this herd, illustrating the value of new technologies to collect data otherwise difficult to obtain in widely distributed migratory populations. This approach can easily be extended to other large herbivores and predators. Our study brings new insights on how climate change may affect summer juvenile survival given the increased temperatures and faster changes in plant phenology expected in the future.

Effect of kelp gull harassment on southern right whale calf survival: a long-term capture-recapture analysis

Kelp gulls (Larus dominicanus) commonly feed on the skin and blubber of surfacing southern right whales (SRW, Eubalaena australis) in the near shore waters of Península Valdés (PV), Argentina. Mothers and especially calves respond to gull attacks by changing their swimming speeds, resting postures and overall behaviour. Gull-inflicted wounds per calf have increased markedly since the mid-1990s. Unusually high mortality of young calves occurred locally after 2003, and increasing evidence points to gull harassment as a factor contributing to the excess deaths. After leaving PV, calves undertake a long migration with their mothers to summer feeding areas; their health during this strenuous exertion is likely to affect their probabilities of first-year survival. To explore the effects of gull-inflicted wounds on calf survival, we analysed 44 capture-recapture observations between 1974 and 2017, for 597 whales photo-identified in their years of birth between 1974 and 2011. We found a marked decrease in first-year survival associated with an increase in wound severity over time. Our analysis supports recent studies indicating that gull harassment at PV may impact SRW population dynamics.

Distance doesn't matter: migration strategy in a seabird has no effect on survival or reproduction

Migrating animals show remarkable diversity in migration strategies, even between individuals from the same population. Migrating longer distances is usually expected to be costlier in terms of time, energy expenditure and risks with potential repercussions for subsequent stages within the annual cycle. Such costs are expected to be balanced by increased survival, for example due to higher quality wintering areas or lower energy expenditure at lower latitudes. We compared reproductive parameters and apparent survival of lesser black-backed gulls (Larus fuscus) breeding in The Netherlands, whose winter range extends from the UK to West Africa, resulting in one-way migration distances that differ by more than 4500 km. Individuals migrating furthest arrived later in the colony than shorter distance migrants, but still laid in synchrony with the colony and consequently had a shorter pre-laying period. This shorter pre-laying period affected neither egg volumes nor hatching success. We found no relationship between migration distance and apparent survival probability, corresponding with previous research showing that annual energy expenditure and distance travelled throughout the year is similar across migration strategies. Combined, our results indicate an equal fitness payoff across migration strategies, suggesting there is no strong selective pressure acting on migration strategy within this population.

Long-term field study reveals that warmer summers lead to larger and longer-lived females only in northern populations of Natterer's bats

Animals often respond to climate change with changes in morphology, e.g., shrinking body size with increasing temperatures, as expected by Bergmann's rule. Because small body size can have fitness costs for individuals, this trend could threaten populations. Recent studies, however, show that morphological responses to climate change and the resulting fitness consequences cannot be generalized even among related species. In this long-term study, we investigate the interaction between ambient temperature, body size and survival probability in a large number of individually marked wild adult female Natterer's bats (Myotis nattereri). We compare populations from two geographical regions in Germany with a different climate. In a sliding window analysis, we found larger body sizes in adult females that were raised in warmer summers only in the northern population, but not in the southern population that experienced an overall warmer climate. With a capture-mark-recapture approach, we showed that larger individuals had higher survival rates, demonstrating that weather conditions in early life could have long-lasting fitness effects. The different responses in body size to warmer temperatures in the two regions highlight that fitness-relevant morphological responses to climate change have to be viewed on a regional scale and may affect local populations differently.

Development and validation of a diagnostic model for differentiating tuberculous spondylitis from brucellar spondylitis using machine learning: A retrospective cohort study

Background

Tuberculous spondylitis (TS) and brucellar spondylitis (BS) are commonly observed in spinal infectious diseases, which are initially caused by bacteremia. BS is easily misdiagnosed as TS, especially in underdeveloped regions of northwestern China with less sensitive medical equipment. Nevertheless, a rapid and reliable diagnostic tool remains to be developed and a clinical diagnostic model to differentiate TS and BS using machine learning algorithms is of great significance.

Methods

A total of 410 patients were included in this study. Independent factors to predict TS were selected by using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model, permutation feature importance, and multivariate logistic regression analysis. A TS risk prediction model was developed with six different machine learning algorithms. We used several metrics to evaluate the accuracy, calibration capability, and predictability of these models. The performance of the model with the best predictability was further verified with the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the calibration curve. The clinical performance of the final model was evaluated by decision curve analysis.

Results

Six variables were incorporated in the final model, namely, pain severity, CRP, x-ray intervertebral disc height loss, x-ray endplate sclerosis, CT vertebral destruction, and MRI paravertebral abscess. The analysis of appraising six models revealed that the logistic regression model developed in the current study outperformed other methods in terms of sensitivity (0.88 ± 0.07) and accuracy (0.79 ± 0.07). The AUC of the logistic regression model predicting TS was 0.86 (95% CI, 0.81-0.90) in the training set and 0.86 (95% CI, 0.78-0.92) in the validation set. The decision curve analysis indicated that the logistic regression model displayed a higher clinical efficiency in the differential diagnosis.

Conclusions

The logistic regression model developed in this study outperformed other methods. The logistic regression model demonstrated by a calculator exerts good discrimination and calibration capability and could be applicable in differentiating TS from BS in primary health care diagnosis.

Integrating dispersal, breeding and abundance data with graph theory for the characterization and management of functional connectivity in amphibian pondscapes

CONTEXT

Robust assessment of functional connectivity in amphibian population networks is essential to address their global decline. The potential of graph theory to characterize connectivity among amphibian populations has already been confirmed, but the movement data on which modelled graphs rely are often scarce and inaccurate. While probabilistic methods that account for intraspecific variability in dispersal better reflect the biological reality of functional connectivity, they must be informed by systematically recorded individual movement data, which are difficult to obtain for secretive taxa like amphibians.

OBJECTIVES

Our aim is to assess the applied potential of probabilistic graph theory to characterize overall connectivity across amphibian pondscapes using fine-scale capture-recapture data, and to inform conservation management based on the role of ponds on functional connectivity.

METHODS

We monitored an amphibian community in a pondscape located in a Spanish "dehesa" for 2 years. Photoidentification was used to build capture histories for individuals of six species, from which dispersal kernels and population sizes were estimated to model probabilistic graphs.

RESULTS

We obtained kernels of variable robustness for six species. Node importance for connectivity varied between species, but with common patterns such as shared road crossing areas and the presence of coincident interconnected pond clusters.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of photoidentification, capture-recapture data and graph theory allowed us to characterize functional connectivity across the pondscape of study accounting for dispersal variability and identify areas where conservation actions could be most efficient. Our results highlight the need to account for interspecific differences in the study and management of amphibian pondscapes.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10980-022-01520-x.

Investigating local population dynamics of bottlenose dolphins in the northern Bahamas and the impact of hurricanes on survival

Little Bahama Bank in the northern Bahamas supports several populations of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus). We provide the first estimates of birth rate and age-class-specific apparent survival rates for the local South Abaco population using data from a long-term (1997–2014) photo-identification (photo-ID) study and use the estimated life history parameters in a population viability analysis (PVA) to predict future population trends. Hurricane events are predicted to become more intense due to climate change but knowledge of how hurricanes may impact cetacean populations is limited. Little Bahama Bank is subject to hurricane activity, so we also investigate the potential impact of hurricanes on calf, juvenile and adult survival. Photo-ID data confirmed the existence of a core adult population with relatively high site fidelity in South Abaco, but also evidence of transient animals. Estimated annual birth rate was 0.278 (95% CI: 0.241–0.337). We found strong support for a decline in apparent survival for all age-classes. Estimated survival declined by 9% in adults (0.941 in 1998, to 0.855 in 2013), 5% in juveniles (0.820 in 2000, to 0.767 in 2013) and 36% in calves (0.970 in 1997, to 0.606 in 2013). Evidence that survival was influenced by repeated hurricane activity leading to increased mortality and/or emigration was stronger for calves and juveniles than for adults. PVA simulations of an assumed isolated South Abaco population showed that declines would lead to extinction within decades, even under the most optimistic scenario. Future work should focus on establishing if South Abaco is part of natural source–sink metapopulation dynamics on Little Bahama Bank by assessing trends in abundance in local populations and establishing how they interact; this will be important for assessing their conservation status in a potentially increasingly changing environment.

Intercolony variation in reproductive skipping in the African penguin

In long-lived species, reproductive skipping is a common strategy whereby sexually mature animals skip a breeding season, potentially reducing population growth. This may be an adaptive decision to protect survival, or a non-adaptive decision driven by individual-specific constraints. Understanding the presence and drivers of reproductive skipping behavior can be important for effective population management, yet in many species such as the endangered African penguin (Spheniscus demersus), these factors remain unknown. This study uses multistate mark-recapture methods to estimate African penguin survival and breeding probabilities at two colonies between 2013 and 2020. Overall, survival (mean ± SE) was higher at Stony Point (0.82 ± 0.01) than at Robben Island (0.77 ± 0.02). Inter-colony differences were linked to food availability; under decreasing sardine (Sardinops sagax) abundance, survival decreased at Robben Island and increased at Stony Point. Additionally, reproductive skipping was evident across both colonies; at Robben Island the probability of a breeder becoming a nonbreeder was ~0.22, versus ~0.1 at Stony Point. Penguins skipping reproduction had a lower probability of future breeding than breeding individuals; this lack of adaptive benefit suggests reproductive skipping is driven by individual-specific constraints. Lower survival and breeding propensity at Robben Island places this colony in greater need of conservation action. However, further research on the drivers of inter-colony differences is needed.

Predicting surface abundance of federally threatened Jollyville Plateau Salamanders (Eurycea tonkawae) to inform management activities at a highly modified urban spring

Urban expansion has contributed to the loss of habitat for range restricted species across the globe. Managing wildlife populations within these urban settings presents the challenge of balancing human and wildlife needs. Jollyville Plateau Salamanders (Eurycea tonkawae) are a range restricted, federally threatened, species of neotenic brook salamander endemic to central Texas. Almost the entire geographic range of E. tonkawae is embedded in the Austin, Cedar Park, and Round Rock metropolitan areas of Travis and Williamson counties, Texas. Among E. tonkawae occupied sites, Brushy Creek Spring has experienced some of the most extensive anthropogenic disturbance. Today the site consists of small groundwater outlets that emerge in the seams within a concrete culvert underlying a highway. Salamanders persist within this system though they are rarely detected. Here, we model the occurrence of salamanders within the surface habitat of Brushy Creek Spring using generalized linear models. In the absence of available data regarding the amount of water that is discharged from the spring, we use accumulated rainfall as a proxy for discharge to estimate salamander abundance. Additionally, we present evidence of reproduction, recruitment, and subterranean movement by E. tonkawae throughout this site. Infrastructure maintenance is inevitable at Brushy Creek Spring. We intend for our results to inform when maintenance should occur, i.e., during environmental conditions when salamanders are less likely to be observed in the surface habitat, to avoid unnecessary impacts to this federally threatened species.

Seasonal trends in adult apparent survival and reproductive trade-offs reveal potential constraints to earlier nesting in a migratory bird

Birds aim to optimize resources for feeding young and self-maintenance by timing reproduction to coincide with peak food availability. When reproduction is mistimed, birds could incur costs that affect their survival. We studied whether nesting phenology correlated with the apparent survival of American kestrels (Falco sparverius) from two distinct populations and examined trends in clutch-initiation dates. We estimated apparent survival using multi-state mark-recapture models with nesting timing, nesting success, sex, age, and weather covariates. Nesting timing predicted the apparent survival of successful adults; however, the effect differed between populations. Early nesting kestrels had higher apparent survival than later nesters in the western population, where kestrels have a relatively long nesting season. At the eastern site, where kestrels have a relatively short nesting season, the pattern was reversed-later nesters had higher apparent survival than earlier nesters. Nesting timing did not affect the apparent survival of adults with failed nests suggesting that the energetic cost of producing fledglings contributed to the timing effect. Finally, clutch-initiation dates advanced in the western population and remained static in the eastern population. Given that both populations have seasonal declines in productivity, population-specific survival patterns provide insight into seasonal trade-offs. Specifically, nesting timing effects on survival paralleled productivity declines in the western population and inverse patterns of survival and reproduction in the eastern population suggest a condition-dependent trade-off. Concomitant seasonal declines in reproduction and survival may facilitate population-level responses to earlier springs, whereas seasonal trade-offs may constrain phenology shifts and increase vulnerability to mismatch.

Variation in Demography and Life-History Strategies Across the Range of a Declining Mountain Bird Species

Species- and population-specific responses to their environment may depend to a large extent on the spatial variation in life-history traits and in demographic processes of local population dynamics. Yet, those parameters and their variability remain largely unknown for many cold-adapted species, which are exposed to particularly rapid rates of environmental change. Here, we compared the demographic traits and dynamics for an emblematic bird species of European mountain ecosystems, the ring ouzel (Turdus torquatus). Using integrated population models fitted in a Bayesian framework, we estimated the survival probability, productivity and immigration of two populations from the Western European Alps, in France (over 11 years) and Switzerland (over 6 years). Juvenile apparent survival was lower and immigration rate higher in the Swiss compared to the French population, with the temporal variation in population growth rate driven by different demographic processes. Yet, when compared to populations in the northwestern part of the range, in Scotland, these two Alpine populations both showed a much lower productivity and higher adult survival, indicating a slower life-history strategy. Our results suggest that demographic characteristics can substantially vary across the discontinuous range of this passerine species, essentially due to contrasted, possibly locally evolved life-history strategies. This study therefore raises the question of whether flexibility in life-history traits is widespread among boreo-alpine species and if it might provide adaptive potential for coping with current environmental change.

The impacts of marking on bats: mark-recapture models for assessing injury rates and tag loss

The individual identification of animals is essential for long-term population ecology studies. Injuries and tag loss can negatively impact animal welfare and parameter estimates. We used time-to-failure curves and multistate mark-recapture models to estimate injury rates, body condition decline, tag loss and survival probabilities associated with two tags commonly used in bats: metallic arm bands and steel ball chain collars. We monitored two colonies of Carollia perspicillata at União Biological Reserve, southeastern Brazil, from 2013 to 2019. Every other month, we marked individuals with arm bands, collars or both. Collars did not cause noticeable injuries, but were lost at a higher rate than arm bands (1.5–2.5 times). The arm band-related injury probability between captures was ~ 0.2, and after 17 months half the marked animals developed injuries. Animals marked as juveniles were less likely to get injured than adults. Injuries were associated with a lower body condition in females. Body condition was positively associated with apparent survival; however, a direct effect of arm band injuries on survival estimates was not observed. The tag loss rates caused a negative bias in survival estimates. Mark-recapture studies should evaluate the efficacy of the marking technique, accounting for potential animal injury, tag loss, and bias in parameter estimation. Marking individuals should be limited to studies that monitor species with high recapture probability, using the least harmful tags possible, and balancing the burden to the animals with the potential to generate knowledge.

In plane sight: a mark-recapture analysis of North Atlantic right whales in the Gulf of St. Lawrence

North Atlantic right whales Eubalaena glacialis are most commonly observed along the eastern seaboard of North America; however, their distribution and occupancy patterns have become less predictable in the last decade. This study explored the individual right whales captured photographically from both dedicated and opportunistic sources from 2015 to 2019 in the Gulf of St. Lawrence (GSL), an area previously understudied for right whale presence. A total of 187 individuals, including reproductive females, were identified from all sources over this period. In years when more substantial survey effort occurred (2017-2019), similar numbers of individuals were sighted (mean = 133, SD = 1.5), and dedicated mark-recapture aerial surveys were highly effective at capturing almost all of the whales estimated in the region (2019: N = 137, 95% CI = 135-147). A high rate of inter-annual return was observed between all 5 study years, with 95% of the animals seen in 2019 sighted previously. Capture rates indicated potential residencies as long as 5 mo, and observed behaviors included feeding and socializing. Individuals were observed in the northern and southern GSL, regions divided by a major shipping corridor. Analyses suggest that individuals mostly moved less than 9.1 km d-1, although rates of up to 79.8 km d-1 were also calculated. The GSL is currently an important habitat for 40% of this Critically Endangered species, which underscores how crucial protection measures are in this area.

Ocean warming threatens southern right whale population recovery

Whales contribute to marine ecosystem functioning, and they may play a role in mitigating climate change and supporting the Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) population, a keystone prey species that sustains the entire Southern Ocean (SO) ecosystem. By analyzing a five-decade (1971–2017) data series of individual southern right whales (SRWs; Eubalaena australis) photo-identified at Península Valdés, Argentina, we found a marked increase in whale mortality rates following El Niño events. By modeling how the population responds to changes in the frequency and intensity of El Niño events, we found that such events are likely to impede SRW population recovery and could even cause population decline. Such outcomes have the potential to disrupt food-web interactions in the SO, weakening that ecosystem’s contribution to the mitigation of climate change at a global scale.

Changes in native small mammal populations with removal of invasive ant

Efforts to remove invasive species may benefit native species, but the effects can be complex and unpredictable. Thus, studies of invasive-species removal provide important information for guiding management and providing insight about variation in post-removal impacts within the community. Using southern pine-grassland ecosystems as a model system, we hypothesized that removal of the long-established red-imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta, hereafter RIFA) would positively influence altricial Peromyscus species, due to increased survival of young in the nest and thus increased recruitment to the population, but would not impact semi-precocial hispid cotton rats (Sigmodon hispidus), which are mobile more quickly after birth and thus at less risk of depredation by RIFA. We compared small mammal populations on sites treated with a granular insecticide (Extinguish Plus) to remove RIFA in southwestern Georgia, United States, from April 2018 to December 2019. As expected, we detected no difference in cotton rat recruitment. However, contrary to our prediction, the same was true for cotton mice (Peromyscus gossypinus) and oldfield mice (Peromyscus polionotus). We found RIFA removal increased survival both of cotton rats and cotton mice, increasing average population rate of change (λ) on treated sites during the study period. In contrast, we observed lower survival of oldfield mice, with similar λ estimates on treated and untreated sites, but low sample sizes were problematic for this species. Our results show that removal of invasive species can have positive impacts for native species, but both the magnitude of RIFA effects on small mammals and mechanisms by which impacts occur are complex.

Partial and complete dependency among data sets has minimal consequence on estimates from integrated population models

Integrated population models (IPMs) are widely used to combine disparate data sets in joint analysis to better understand population dynamics and provide guidance for conservation activities. An often-cited assumption of IPMs is independence among component data sets within the combined likelihood. Dependency among data sets should lead to underestimation of variance and bias because individuals contribute data to more than one data set. In practice, studied individuals often occur in multiple data sets in IPMs (i.e., overlap), which is one way for the independence assumption to be violated. Such cases have the potential to dissuade practitioners and limit application of IPMs to solve emerging ecological problems. We assessed precision and bias of demographic rates estimated from IPMs using a complete gradient (0-100%) of overlap among data sets, wide ranges in demographic rates (e.g., survival 0.1-0.8) and sample sizes (100-1,200 individuals) and variable data sources. We compared results from our simulations with those from IPMs constructed using empirical data on tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) where data sets either had complete overlap or included different individuals. Contrary to previous investigators, we found no substantive bias or uncertainty in any demographic rate from IPMs derived from data sets with complete overlap. While variability in demographic rates was greater at low sample sizes (i.e., low capture, recapture, and survey probabilities), there were negligible differences in the posterior mean or root mean square error of demographic rates among IPMs with strong dependence vs. complete independence among data sets. Our simulations suggest IPMs can be designed using only capture-recapture data or harvest and capture-recovery data where population estimates are obtained from the same data as survival and productivity data. While we encourage researchers to carefully consider the modeling approach best suited for their data sets, our results suggest that dependence among data sets does not generally compromise IPM estimates. Thus, violation of the independence assumption should not dissuade researchers from the application of IPMs in ecological research.

Host traits and lifetime fitness costs of being parasitized in red-breasted mergansers

The addition of eggs to a nest by a conspecific is known for approximately 250 bird species. Understanding the evolution of conspecific brood parasitism (CBP) requires assessment of fitness consequences to the egg recipient (host). We addressed host traits and the effects of CBP on future reproduction (i.e., annual survival) and hatching success of hosts by following the nesting of 206 red-breasted mergansers ( Mergus serrator) for a colony in which an average of 41% of nests was parasitized annually. Each host was tracked for ≥2 seasons and up to seven seasons. The proportion of a host’s nesting attempts that was parasitized averaged 43% and varied considerably across individuals (range 0%–100%). Probability of parasitism, however, was not repeatable across a host’s nests. Rather, rates of CBP throughout a host’s lifetime increased with earlier dates of nest initiation. CBP had no effect on annual survival of a host. Hatching success throughout a host’s lifetime declined with a greater number of foreign eggs added to the individual’s nests. This study revealed that there may be measurable costs of CBP to lifetime reproductive success in red-breasted mergansers, although our observations suggest that costs to hosts are limited to the most heavily parasitized clutches.

Oversummering juvenile and adult Semipalmated sandpipers in Perú gain enough survival to compensate for foregone breeding opportunity

BACKGROUND

Age at maturity and the timing of first breeding are important life history traits. Most small shorebird species mature and breed as 'yearlings', but have lower reproductive success than adults. In some species, yearlings may defer northward migration and remain in non-breeding regions ('oversummering') until they reach 2 years of age. Some adults also oversummer. Oversummering would be favoured by natural selection if survival were as a result raised sufficiently to compensate for the missed breeding opportunity. Several thousand Semipalmated Sandpipers (Calidris pusilla) spend the non-breeding period at Paracas, Perú, including individuals with long bills (likely from eastern Arctic breeding populations ~ 8000 km distant) and short bills (likely from western Arctic breeding populations, up to 11,000 km distant), with short-billed birds more likely to oversummer. We tested the prediction that oversummering birds have higher survival than migrants, and that the magnitude of this higher survival for oversummering birds is enough to compensate for their lost breeding season.

METHODS

We used a Multi-State Mark-Recapture model based on 5 years of encounter data (n = 1963 marked birds, and 3229 resightings) obtained year-round at Paracas, Perú, to estimate seasonal (i.e. breeding and non-breeding) survivorship for migrant and oversummering birds. We calculated the magnitude of the oversummering survival advantage required to compensate, for both yearlings and adults, based on published measures of annual survival and reproductive success. Using bill length as a proxy for migration distance, we investigated whether migratory survival is distance-dependent.

RESULTS

We estimate that 28% of yearlings and 19% of adults oversummer. Survival is higher for oversummering birds than for migrants, and the oversummering survival advantage is greater for adults (0.215) than for yearlings (0.140). The theoretical thresholds predicted by the size of the missed reproductive opportunity are 0.240 for adults and 0.134 for yearlings. Migratory survival decreases and the oversummering rate increases with migration distance, as assessed by culmen length.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results support the life history hypothesis that oversummering raises survival enough to compensate for the loss of a breeding opportunity. Greater migration distance lowers survival and increases the probability of oversummering.

Interactive impacts of climate change and land-use change on the demography of montane birds

Climate change and habitat degradation are amongst the two greatest threats to biodiversity. Together, they can interact to imperil species. However, how climate change and land-use change jointly affect the demographic vital rates that underpin population viability remains unknown. Here, using long-term data on birds from the increasingly degraded and rapidly warming Himalayas, we show that survival trends over time are linked to species' elevational ranges in primary, but not in selectively logged forest. In primary forest, populations at their cold-edge elevational range limit show increases in survival rates over time, whereas those at their warm-edge elevational range limit suffer survival declines. This pattern is consistent with species tracking favorable climatic conditions over time, leading to improved demographic outcomes at progressively higher elevations with climate change, which in turn lead to upslope range shifts. In logged forest, however, survival rates remain relatively constant over time. This suggests that, in response to climate change in the long term, individuals of the same species can maintain demographic vital rates in higher-elevation primary forest, but not in logged forest. This is the first demonstration of how two of the most disruptive anthropogenic influences on biodiversity interact to threaten survivorship in natural populations. Ignoring interactions between climate change and land-use change can potentially undermine accurate forecasting of the future of species in an increasingly warm and degraded world. Importantly, large tracts of well-protected primary forests across Earth's tropical elevational gradients may be essential to enable tropical montane species to persist in the face of climate change.

Transience effect in capture-recapture studies: The importance of its biological meaning

Capture-recapture (CR) models are an essential tool for estimating demographic parameters in most animal and some plant populations. To avoid drawing incorrect conclusions in any statistical inference, a crucial prerequisite is to assess the goodness of fit of a general model to the data. In CR models, a frequent cause of lack of fit, is the so-called transience effect, which is due to a lower expectation of re-observation of individuals marked for the first time as compared to other individuals. The transience effect may result either from different biological causes or from the sampling procedure. A transience effect is usually treated by distinguishing at least two age-classes in the survival probability, but other approaches may be more suitable. Here we develop a conceptual and analytical framework for including a transience effect in capture-recapture models. We show the implementation of two additional parametrizations that incorporate a transience effect. With these parametrizations, we can directly estimate the "transience probability" defined as the probability that a newly caught individual disappear from the population beyond what is expected based on the behavior of the previously caught individuals in the same sample. Additionally, these parametrizations allow testing biological hypotheses concerning drivers affecting this probability. Results from our case study show differences between parametrizations, with the parametrization most currently used giving different estimates, especially when including covariates. We advocate for a unifying framework for treating a transience effect, that helps clarifying the ideas and terminology, and where the biological reasons should be the rule for choosing the appropriate analytical procedure. This framework will also open new and powerful ways for the detection and exploration of ecological processes such as the costs of the first reproduction or the deleterious effects of some types of marking.

Accounting for heterogeneity when estimating stopover duration, timing and population size of red knots along the Luannan Coast of Bohai Bay, China

To successfully perform their long-distance migrations, migratory birds require sites along their migratory routes to rest and refuel. Monitoring the use of so-called stopover and staging sites provides insights into (a) the timing of migration and (b) the importance of a site for migratory bird populations. A recently developed Bayesian superpopulation model that integrates mark-recapture data and ring density data enabled the estimation of stopover timing, duration, and population size. Yet, this model did not account for heterogeneity in encounter (p) and staying (ϕ) probabilities.Here we extended the integrated superpopulation model by implementing finite mixtures to account for heterogeneity in p and ϕ. We used simulations and real data (from 2009-2016) on red knots Calidris canutus, mostly of the subspecies piersmai, staging in Bohai Bay, China, during spring migration to (a) show the importance of accounting for heterogeneity in encounter and staying probabilities to get unbiased estimates of stopover timing, duration, and numbers of migratory birds at staging sites and (b) get accurate stopover parameter estimates for a migratory bird species at a key staging site that is threatened by habitat destruction.Our simulations confirmed that heterogeneity in p affected stopover parameter estimates more than heterogeneity in ϕ, especially when most birds had low p. Bias was particularly severe when most birds had both low ϕ and p. Bias was largest for population size, intermediate for stopover duration and negligible for stopover timing.A total of 50,000-100,000 red knots were estimated to annually stop for 5-9 days in Bohai Bay between 10 and 30 May. This shows the key importance of this staging site for this declining species. There were no clear changes in stopover parameters over time, although stopover population size was substantially lower in 2016 than in preceding years.Our study shows the importance of accounting for heterogeneity in both encounter and staying probabilities for accurately estimating stopover duration and population size and provides an appropriate modeling framework.

Quantifying the links between land use and population growth rate in a declining farmland bird

Land use is likely to be a key driver of population dynamics of species inhabiting anthropogenic landscapes, such as farmlands. Understanding the relationships between land use and variation in population growth rates is therefore critical for the management of many farmland species. Using 24 years of data of a declining farmland bird in an integrated population model, we examined how spatiotemporal variation in land use (defined as habitats with "Short" and "Tall" ground vegetation during the breeding season) and habitat-specific demographic parameters relates to variation in population growth taking into account individual movements between habitats. We also evaluated contributions to population growth using transient life table response experiments which gives information on contribution of past variation of parameters and real-time elasticities which suggests future scenarios to change growth rates. LTRE analyses revealed a clear contribution of Short habitats to the annual variation in population growth rate that was mostly due to fledgling recruitment, whereas there was no evidence for a contribution of Tall habitats. Only 18% of the variation in population growth was explained by the modeled local demography, the remaining variation being explained by apparent immigration (i.e., the residual variation). We discuss potential biological and methodological reasons for high contributions of apparent immigration in open populations. In line with LTRE analysis, real-time elasticity analysis revealed that demographic parameters linked to Short habitats had a stronger potential to influence population growth rate than those of Tall habitats. Most particularly, an increase of the proportion of Short sites occupied by Old breeders could have a distinct positive impact on population growth. High-quality Short habitats such as grazed pastures have been declining in southern Sweden. Converting low-quality to high-quality habitats could therefore change the present negative population trend of this, and other species with similar habitat requirements.