Medical emergency team activation: performance of conventional dichotomised criteria versus national early warning score

The burden of critical illness among adults in a Swedish region-a population-based point-prevalence study

BACKGROUND

Patients with critical illness have a high risk of mortality. Key decision-making in the health system affecting the outcomes of critically ill patients requires epidemiological evidence, but the burden of critical illness is largely unknown. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of critical illness in a Swedish region. Secondary objectives were to estimate the proportion of hospital inpatients who are critically ill and to describe the in-hospital location of critically ill patients.

METHODS

A prospective, multi-center, population-based, point-prevalence study on specific days in 2017-2018. All adult (> 18 years) in-patients, regardless of admitting specially, in all acute hospitals in Sörmland, and the patients from Sörmland who had been referred to university hospitals, were included. Patients in the operating theatres, with a psychiatric cause of admission, women in active labor and moribund patients, were excluded. All participants were examined by trained data collectors. Critical illness was defined as "a state of ill health with vital organ dysfunction, a high risk of imminent death if care is not provided and a potential for reversibility". The presence of one or more severely deranged vital signs was used to classify critical illness. The prevalence of critical illness was calculated as the number of critically ill patients divided by the number of adults in the region.

RESULTS

A total of 1269 patients were included in the study. Median age was 74 years and 50% of patients were female. Critical illness was present in 133 patients, resulting in an adult population prevalence of critical illness per 100,000 people of 19.4 (95% CI 16.4-23.0). The proportion of patients in hospital who were critically ill was 10.5% (95% CI 8.8-12.3%). Among the critically ill, 125 [95% CI 94.0% (88.4-97.0%)] were cared for in general wards.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of critical illness was higher than previous, indirect estimates. One in ten hospitalized patients were critically ill, the large majority of which were cared for in general wards. This suggests a hidden burden of critical illness of potential public health, health system and hospital management significance.

Characteristics and outcomes of medical emergency team calls in a Swiss tertiary centre - a retrospective observational study

AIMS OF THE STUDY

To describe reasons for medical emergency team (MET) activation over time, to analyse outcomes, and to describe the circadian distribution of MET calls and Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admissions following MET activation.

METHODS

Monocentric retrospective observational study of prospectively collected data on all MET calls between 1^st of January 2012 until 31^st of May 2019. We analysed data on baselines, referring wards, and disposition of all MET patients. In addition, we allocated all MET calls to the hourly intervals over the 24-hour cycle of the day in order to identify peak times of team activation.

RESULTS

A total of 4068 calls in 3277 patients (37% female, n = 1210) were analysed. The mean age was 65.9 years (± 15.7). The MET dose (defined as MET calls/1000 hospital admissions) remained relatively stable over the years with a median of 8.0 calls/1000 hospitalisations (interquartile range [IQR] 7.0-10.0). A total of 2526 calls (62%) occurred out of hours (17:00 to 8:00). The hourly rate of MET activations was greatest during the evening shift (33.8% of calls in seven hours), followed by the day shift (35.8% calls in nine hours) and night shift (30.4% in eight hours). Over the years, staff concern was the main reason for a MET call (n = 1192, 34%), followed by low peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO₂) not responding to oxygen therapy (n = 776, 22%). Abnormal respiratory rate was a trigger to call the MET in 44 cases (1.3%), and was not documented prior to 2017. Overall, in-hospital mortality was 22%.

CONCLUSION

While most common reasons for MET calls over the years were staff concern and low SpO₂, abnormal respiratory rate was the least frequent, but increased after the introduction of the quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) in 2016. Most MET calls occurred out of hours with peak hours during the evening shift, highlighting the importance of resource allocation during this shift when planning to introduce a MET system in a hospital. In-hospital mortality after a MET call was 22%.

[In-hospital emergency care in the Federal Republic of Germany. A site survey of hospitals in the German Resuscitation Registry]

BACKGROUND

In contrast to prehospital care there is a lack of specifications for the organization and equipment of medical emergency teams for in-hospital emergency care.

OBJECTIVE

Evaluation of the organization, team composition, training, equipment and tasks of medical emergency teams in the Federal Republic of Germany.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Evaluation of a web-based survey of all hospitals participating in the German Resuscitation Register between February and March2020. The participants were asked about team composition; emergency equipment; type, content and scope of special training or further training as well as other additional tasks in the everyday clinical routine when participating in the medical emergency team. Hospitals with ≤ or >600 beds were compared.

RESULTS

A total of 21 (>600 beds: 10, 48%; ≤600 beds: 11, 52%) hospitals participated in the survey. Team composition requirements were present at 76% (n = 16; ≤600 beds: 8, 72% vs. >600 beds: 8, 80%), training requirements for medical emergency teams at 38% (n = 16; ≤600 beds: 4, 36% vs. >600 beds: 4, 40%) of hospitals, with a focus on cardiac life support (n = 6, 28%; ≤600 beds: 3, 27% vs. >600 beds: 3, 30%) and airway management (n = 4, 19%; ≤600 beds: 3, 27% vs. >600 beds: 1, 10%). A 12-lead electrocardiogram (n = 7, 33%; ≤600 beds: 1, 9% vs. >600 beds: 6, 60%; p = 0.02), video laryngoscope (n = 7, 33%; ≤600 beds: 2, 18% vs. >600 beds: 5, 50%), ventilator without (n = 7, 33%; ≤600 beds: 2, 18% vs. >600 beds: 5, 50%) or with the possibility of non-invasive ventilation was part of the standard equipment in n = 4, 19% (≤600 beds: 1, 9% vs. >600 beds: 3, 30%). A total of 85% (n = 18; ≤600 beds: 10, 100% vs. >600 beds 8, 72%), had additional tasks in the daily clinical routine. While clinics with >600 beds staffed medical emergency teams 100% of the time from the intensive care units, in clinics ≤600 beds medical emergency teams were deployed significantly more often in the emergency department (n = 5, 45%) and in the normal wards (n = 5, 45%, p = 0.03).

CONCLUSION

Training and equipment of medical emergency teams in the Federal Republic of Germany is heterogeneous. They should at least meet the standards commonly used in prehospital emergency medicine and include the availability of a portable 12-lead electrocardiogram, a ventilator with the possibility of noninvasive ventilation and a video laryngoscope. Regardless of the size of the hospital, continuous availability of all members of the medical emergency teams should be ensured.

In-hospital cardiac arrest and preceding National Early Warning Score (NEWS): A retrospective case-control study

We aimed to describe and evaluate the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) in the 24 hours preceding an in-hospital cardiac arrest among general somatic ward patients.The 24 hours preceding the in-hospital cardiac arrest were divided into four timespans and analysed by a medical record review of 127:254 matched case-control patients. The median NEWS ranged from 3 (2-6) to 6 (3-9) points for cases vs 1 (0-3) to 1 (0-3) point for controls. The proportion of cases ranged from 23-45% at high risk vs 3-6% for controls. The NEWS high-risk category was associated with an increase of 3.17 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.66-6.04) to 4.43 (95% CI 2.56-7.67) in odds of in-hospital cardiac arrest compared to the low-risk category.NEWS, with its intuitive and for healthcare staff easy to interpret risk classification, is suitable for discriminating deteriorating patients with major deviating vital signs scoring high risk on NEWS.

Level of vital and laboratory values on arrival, and increased risk of 7-day mortality among adult patients in the emergency department: a population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the study was to provide evidence for, at which vital and laboratory values, increased risk of 7-day mortality in acute adult patients on arrival to an emergency department (ED).

DESIGN

A population-based cohort study.

SETTING

ED at Odense University Hospital, Denmark.

PARTICIPANTS

All patients ≥18 years with a first-time contact within the study period, 1 April 2012 to 31 March 2015.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary outcome was 7-day all-cause mortality.Variables were first recorded vital and laboratory values included in risk stratification scores; respiratory frequency, blood pressure, heart rate, Glasgow Coma Scale, temperature, saturation, creatinine, PaO₂, platelet count and bilirubin. The association between values and mortality was described using a restricted cubic spline. A predefined 7-day mortality of 2.5% was chosen as a relevant threshold.

RESULTS

We included 40 423 patients, 52.5% women, median age 57 (IQR 38-74) years and 7-day mortality 2.8%. Seven-day mortality of 2.5% had thresholds of respiratory frequency <12 and >18/min, systolic blood pressure <112 and >192 mm Hg, heart rate <54 and >102 beats/min, temperature <36.0°C and >39.8°C, saturation <97%, Glasgow Coma Scale score <15, creatinine <41 and >98 µmol/L for PaO₂ <9.9 and >12.3 kPa, platelet count <165 and >327×10⁹/L and bilirubin >12 µmol/L.

CONCLUSION

Vital values on arrival, outside the normal ranges for the measures, are indicative of increased risk of short-term mortality, and most of the value thresholds are included in the lowest urgency level in triage and risk stratification scoring systems.

Do early warning track and trigger tools improve patient outcomes? A systematic synthesis without meta-analysis

AIM

To determine the effect of Early Warning Track and Trigger Tools on patient outcomes.

DESIGN

A systematic review: synthesis without meta-analysis.

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases were searched from 1 January 2013-1 August 2018 and 221 papers identified.

REVIEW METHODS

A systematic review and narrative synthesis supported the identification of synthesized findings named and reported according to outcome measure.

RESULTS

Five international papers representing over 74,000 patients were included in the analysis. Seven key findings were identified, the impact of NEWS on: (a) cardiopulmonary arrest; (b) mortality; (c) serious adverse events; (d) length of hospital stay; (e) hospital admissions; (f) observation frequency; and (g) Intensive/High dependency Unit admission. Papers identified statistically significant improvements in mortality, serious adverse events, hospital admissions, observation frequency, and intensive care unit/high dependency unit admission when an Early Warning Track and Trigger protocol is in use. There were conflicting results regarding length of stay and cardiopulmonary arrest data.

CONCLUSION

Early Warning Track and Trigger Tools can aid recognition of deteriorating patients. Further research is required in relation to hospital length of stay and cardiopulmonary arrests.

IMPACT

Early warning track and trigger tools have been implemented nationally and to a lesser degree internationally. There is evidence to suggest improved clinical outcomes following their use. Further research needs to combine the use of the National Early Warning Score with an agreed set of measured outcomes, and then subsequent study data could be combined to provide much stronger levels of evidence.

NEWS2 versus a single-parameter system to identify critically ill medical patients in the emergency department

AIM

To test National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) versus a single-parameter system to identify critically ill general medical patients in the emergency department (ED), by 1) testing NEWS2s prediction of and association with primary outcome 'mortality' (hospital or 30 day) and secondary outcomes 'intensive care unit (ICU) admission' and 'critical care in ED' and 2) comparing this for different NEWS2 cut-offs and the single-parameter system in use.

METHODS

Register-data on adult triage 1 and 2 patients with complete NEWS2 from 2015 and 2016 were retrieved. Prediction was assessed using area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve. Associations were analyzed using multiple logistic regression.

RESULTS

1586 patients were included. NEWS2 showed poor prediction of 'mortality' (AUC 0.686, CI 0.633-0.739) and adequate prediction of 'ICU admission' (AUC 0.716, CI 0.690-0.742) and 'critical care in ED' (AUC 0.756, CI 0.732-0.780). It was strongly associated with all outcomes (all p<0.001). All NEWS2 cut-offs and the single-parameter system showed poor prediction of all outcomes (all AUCs <0.7). The single-parameter system had the strongest association with 'mortality' (OR 1.688, CI 1.052-2.708, p<0.05) and 'critical care in ED' (OR 3.267, CI 2.490-4.286, p<0.001). NEWS2 > 4 had the strongest association with 'ICU admission' (OR 2.339, CI 1.742-3.141, p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

For identification in order to trigger a response in the ED, outcomes closest in time seem most clinically relevant. As such, the single-parameter system had acceptable performance. NEWS2 > 4 should be considered as an additional trigger due to its association with ICU admission.

Early warning scores for detecting deterioration in adult hospital patients: systematic review and critical appraisal of methodology

OBJECTIVE

To provide an overview and critical appraisal of early warning scores for adult hospital patients.

DESIGN

Systematic review.

DATA SOURCES

Medline, CINAHL, PsycInfo, and Embase until June 2019.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR STUDY SELECTION

Studies describing the development or external validation of an early warning score for adult hospital inpatients.

RESULTS

13 171 references were screened and 95 articles were included in the review. 11 studies were development only, 23 were development and external validation, and 61 were external validation only. Most early warning scores were developed for use in the United States (n=13/34, 38%) and the United Kingdom (n=10/34, 29%). Death was the most frequent prediction outcome for development studies (n=10/23, 44%) and validation studies (n=66/84, 79%), with different time horizons (the most frequent was 24 hours). The most common predictors were respiratory rate (n=30/34, 88%), heart rate (n=28/34, 83%), oxygen saturation, temperature, and systolic blood pressure (all n=24/34, 71%). Age (n=13/34, 38%) and sex (n=3/34, 9%) were less frequently included. Key details of the analysis populations were often not reported in development studies (n=12/29, 41%) or validation studies (n=33/84, 39%). Small sample sizes and insufficient numbers of event patients were common in model development and external validation studies. Missing data were often discarded, with just one study using multiple imputation. Only nine of the early warning scores that were developed were presented in sufficient detail to allow individualised risk prediction. Internal validation was carried out in 19 studies, but recommended approaches such as bootstrapping or cross validation were rarely used (n=4/19, 22%). Model performance was frequently assessed using discrimination (development n=18/22, 82%; validation n=69/84, 82%), while calibration was seldom assessed (validation n=13/84, 15%). All included studies were rated at high risk of bias.

CONCLUSIONS

Early warning scores are widely used prediction models that are often mandated in daily clinical practice to identify early clinical deterioration in hospital patients. However, many early warning scores in clinical use were found to have methodological weaknesses. Early warning scores might not perform as well as expected and therefore they could have a detrimental effect on patient care. Future work should focus on following recommended approaches for developing and evaluating early warning scores, and investigating the impact and safety of using these scores in clinical practice.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42017053324.

National Early Warning Score: A survey of registered nurses' perceptions, experiences and barriers

AIMS & OBJECTIVES

To describe registered nurses' perceptions, experiences and barriers for using the National Early Warning Score in relation to their work experience and medical affiliation.

BACKGROUND

Indications of inconsistencies in adherence to the National Early Warning Score have emerged.

DESIGN

Web-based questionnaire study.

METHODS

The questionnaire was sent to 3,165 registered nurses working in somatic hospitals in the southern part of Sweden. Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology was adhered.

RESULTS

Seventy-one per cent of the 1,044 respondents reported adherence to the National Early Warning Score guidelines recommended frequency of monitoring and 74% to the clinical response scale. The shorter the working experience, the higher the proportion of registered nurses who answered positively to the National Early Warning Score allowing them to better prioritise their care with short nursing experience. When categorising nurses according to their workplace's medical affiliation, adherence to the National Early Warning Score guidelines recommended frequency of monitoring was reported highest in surgery and orthopaedics (66%) and lowest in the cardiac high dependency unit (52%). Corresponding proportions of reported adherence to the clinical response scale were highest in orthopaedics (82%) and lowest in the cardiac high dependency unit (48%). Lack of response from the doctor was reported as one of the main reasons for not adhering to the National Early Warning Score by 50% of the registered nurse.

CONCLUSION

In general, registered nurses perceived the National Early Warning Score as a useful tool, supporting their gut feeling about an unstable patient. Barriers to the National Early Warning Score were found in doctors and the most experienced registered nurses, indicating the need for resources to be focused on the adherence of these members of the healthcare team.

RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE

In general, the registered nurses answered positively to the National Early Warning Score. We found indications that there is a need to focus resources on the adherence of the most experienced registered nurse and the doctors.

National early warning score (NEWS) and the new alternative SpO2 scale during rapid response team reviews: a prospective observational study

Background

The national early warning score (NEWS) enables early detection of in-hospital patient deterioration and timely activation of hospital’s rapid response team (RRT). NEWS was updated in 2017 to include a separate SpO₂ scale for those patients with type II respiratory failure (T2RF). In this study we investigated whether NEWS with and without the new SpO₂ scale for the T2RF patients is associated with immediate and in-hospital patient outcomes among the patients actually attended by the RRT.

Methods

We conducted a two-year prospective observational study including all adult RRT patients without limitations of medical treatment (LOMT) in a large Finnish university associated tertiary level hospital. According to the first vital signs measured by the RRT, we calculated NEWSs for the RRT patients and further utilized the new SpO₂ scale for the patients with confirmed T2RF. We used multivariate logistic regression and area under the receiver operating characteristic analyses to test NEWS’s accuracy to predict two distinct outcomes: RRT patient’s I) immediate need for intensive care and/or new LOMT and 2) in-hospital death or discharge with cerebral performance category >2 and/or LOMT.

Results

The final cohort consisted of 886 RRT patients attended for the first time during their hospitalization. Most common reasons for RRT activation were respiratory (343, 39%) and circulatory (226, 26%) problems. Cohort’s median (Q₁, Q₃) NEWS at RRT arrival was 8 (5, 10) and remained unchanged if the new SpO₂ scale was applied for the 104 patients with confirmed T2RF. Higher NEWS was independently associated with both immediate (OR 1.28; 95% CI 1.22–1.35) and in-hospital (1.15; 1.10–1.21) adverse outcomes. Further, NEWS had fair discrimination for both the immediate (AUROC 0.73; 0.69–0.77) and in-hospital (0.68; 0.64–0.72) outcomes. Utilizing the new SpO₂ scale for the patients with confirmed T2RF did not improve the discrimination capability (0.73; 0.69–0.76 and 0.68; 0.64–0.71) for these outcomes, respectively.

Conclusions

We found that in patients attended by a RRT, the NEWS predicts patient’s hospital outcome with moderate accuracy. We did not find any improvement using the new SpO2 scale in T2RF patients.

Patient acceptability of wearable vital sign monitoring technologies in the acute care setting: A systematic review

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

To examine patient acceptability of wearable vital sign monitoring devices in the acute setting.

BACKGROUND

Wearable vital sign monitoring devices may improve patient safety, yet hospital patients' acceptability of these devices is largely unreported.

DESIGN

A systematic review.

METHODS

Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature Complete, MEDLINE Complete and EMBASE were searched, supplemented by reference list hand searching. Studies were included if they involved adult hospital patients (≥18 years), a wearable monitoring device capable of assessing ≥1 vital sign, and measured patient acceptability, satisfaction or experience of wearing the device. No date restrictions were enforced. Quality assessments of quantitative and qualitative studies were undertaken using the Downs and Black Checklist for Measuring Study Quality and the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme Qualitative Research Checklist, respectively. Meta-analyses were not possible given data heterogeneity and low research quality. Reporting adhered to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines and a Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses checklist was completed.

RESULTS

Of the 427 studies screened, seven observational studies met the inclusion criteria. Six studies were of low quality and one was of high quality. In two studies, patient satisfaction was investigated. In the remaining studies, patient experience, patient opinions and experience, patient perceptions and experience, device acceptability, and patient comfort and concerns were investigated. In four studies, patients were mostly accepting of the wearable devices, reporting positive experiences and satisfaction relating to their use. In three studies, findings were mixed.

CONCLUSION

There is limited high-quality research examining patient acceptability of wearable vital sign monitoring devices as an a priori focus in the acute setting. Further understanding of patient perspectives of these devices is required to inform their continued use and development.

RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE

The provision of patient-centred nursing care is contingent on understanding patients' preferences, including their acceptability of technology use.

Combination of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and inflammatory biomarkers for early risk stratification in emergency department patients: results of a multinational, observational study

OBJECTIVES

The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) helps to estimate mortality risk in emergency department (ED) patients. This study aimed to investigate whether the prognostic value of the NEWS at ED admission could be further improved by adding inflammatory blood markers (ie, white cell count (WCC), procalcitonin (PCT) and midregional-proadrenomedullin (MR-proADM).

DESIGN

Secondary analysis of a multinational, observational study (TRIAGE study, March 2013-October 2014).

SETTING

Three tertiary care centres in France, Switzerland and the USA.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 1303 adult medical patients with complete NEWS data seeking ED care were included in the final analysis. NEWS was calculated retrospectively based on admission data.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was all-cause 30-day mortality. Secondary outcome was intensive care unit (ICU) admission. We used multivariate regression analyses to investigate associations of NEWS and blood markers with outcomes and area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) as a measure of discrimination.

RESULTS

Of the 1303 included patients, 54 (4.1%) died within 30 days. The NEWS alone showed fair prognostic accuracy for all-cause 30-day mortality (AUC 0.73), with a multivariate adjusted OR of 1.26 (95% CI 1.13 to 1.40, p<0.001). The AUCs for the prediction of mortality using the inflammatory markers WCC, PCT and MR-proADM were 0.64, 0.71 and 0.78, respectively. Combining NEWS with all three blood markers or only with MR-proADM clearly improved discrimination with an AUC of 0.82 (p=0.002). Combining the three inflammatory markers with NEWS improved prediction of ICU admission (AUC 0.70vs0.65 when using NEWS alone, p=0.006).

CONCLUSION

NEWS is helpful in risk stratification of ED patients and can be further improved by the addition of inflammatory blood markers. Future studies should investigate whether risk stratification by NEWS in addition to biomarkers improve site-of-care decision in this patient population.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT01768494; Post-results.

The National Early Warning Score predicts mortality in hospital ward patients with deviating vital signs: A retrospective medical record review study

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

To evaluate whether the scale used for assessment of hospital ward patients could predict in-hospital and 30-day mortality amongst those with deviating vital signs; that is, that patients classified as medium or high risk would have increased risk of in-hospital and 30-day mortality compared to patients with low risk.

BACKGROUND

The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) is a widely adopted scale for assessing deviating vital signs. A clinical risk scale that comes with the NEWS divides the risk for critical illness into three risk categories, low, medium and high.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of vital sign data.

METHODS

Logistic regression models for age-adjusted in-hospital and 30-day mortality were used for analyses of 1,107 patients with deviating vital signs.

RESULTS

Patients classified as medium or high risk by NEWS experienced a 2.11 or 3.40 increase, respectively, in odds of in-hospital death (95% CI: 1.27-3.51, p = 0.004% and 95% CI: 1.90-6.01, p < 0.001) compared to low-risk patients. Moreover, those with NEWS medium or high risk were associated with a 1.98 or 3.19 increase, respectively, in odds of 30-day mortality (95% CI: 1.32-2.97, p = 0.001% and 95% CI: 1.97-5.18, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The NEWS risk classification seems to be a reliable predictor of mortality on patients in hospital wards.

RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE

The NEWS risk classification offers a simple way to identify deteriorating patients and can aid the healthcare staff to prioritise amongst patients.

Are Early Warning Scores Useful Predictors for Mortality and Morbidity in Hospitalised Acutely Unwell Older Patients? A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Early warning scores (EWSs) are used to identify deteriorating patients for appropriate interventions. We performed a systematic review to examine the usefulness of EWSs in predicting inpatient mortality and morbidity (transfer to higher-level care and length of hospital stay) in older people admitted to acute medical units with sepsis, acute cardiovascular events, or pneumonia.

METHODS

A systematic review of published and unpublished databases was conducted. Cochrane's tool for assessing Risk of Bias in Non-Randomised Studies-of Interventions (ROBINS-I) was used to appraise the evidence. A narrative synthesis was performed due to substantial heterogeneity.

RESULTS

Five studies (n = 12,057) were eligible from 1033 citations. There was an overall "moderate" risk of bias for all studies. The predictive ability of EWSs regarding mortality was reported in one study (n = 274), suggesting EWSs were better at predicting survival, (negative predictive value >90% for all scores). Three studies (n = 1819) demonstrated a significant association between increasing modified EWSs (MEWSs) and increased risk of mortality. Hazards ratios for a composite death/intensive care (ICU) admission with MEWSs ≥5 were significant in one study (p = 0.003). Two studies (n = 1421) demonstrated that a MEWS ≥6 was associated with 21 times higher probability of mortality (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 2.71⁻170.57) compared with a MEWS ≤1. A MEWS of ≥5 was associated with 22 times higher probability of mortality (95% CI: 10.45⁻49.16).

CONCLUSION

Increasing EWSs are strongly associated with mortality and ICU admission in older acutely unwell patients. Future research should be targeted at better understanding the usefulness of high and increasing EWSs for specific acute illnesses in older adults.

National early warning score (NEWS) in a Finnish multidisciplinary emergency department and direct vs. late admission to intensive care

OBJECTIVES

We investigated the national early warning scores (NEWSs) and related outcomes of patients in a tertiary referral center's multidisciplinary emergency department (ED). Patients were further categorized into three groups: triaged directly to intensive care unit (EDICU), triaged to general ward with later ICU admission (EDwardICU) and triaged to general ward (EDward). NEWSs and subsequent outcomes among these sub groups were compared.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective one-month cohort study in Tampere University Hospital's ED, Finland. ED-NEWSs were obtained for all adult patients without treatment limitations, and control (ward) NEWSs were further obtained for the EDwardICU and EDward patients.

RESULTS

Cohort consisted of 1,354 patients with a median ED-NEWS of 2, and higher ED-NEWS was associated with in-hospital mortality (OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.11-1.42; AUROC 0.75, 0.64‒0.86, p < 0.001) and 30-day mortality (OR 1.27, 1.17-1.39; AUROC 0.78, 0.71‒0.84, p < 0.001) irrespective of age and comorbidity. There were 64 patients in EDICU group, 12 patients in EDwardICU group and 1,278 patients in EDward group with median ED-NEWSs of 7, 3 and 2 (p < 0.001), respectively. After the first 24 h in wards, median NEWSs of the EDwardICU patients had substantially increased as compared with EDward patients (6 vs. 2, p < 0.001). There were no statistical differences in last NEWS before ICU admission between the EDICU and EDwardICU patients (7 vs. 8, p = 0.534), or in ICU severity-of-illness scores or patient outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

ED-NEWS is independently associated with in-hospital and 30-day mortality with acceptable discrimination capability. Direct and late ICU admissions occurred with comparable NEWSs at admission.

Pre-hospital National Early Warning Score (NEWS) is associated with in-hospital mortality and critical care unit admission: A cohort study

Background

National Early Warning Score (NEWS) is increasingly used in UK hospitals. However, there is only limited evidence to support the use of pre-hospital early warning scores. We hypothesised that pre-hospital NEWS was associated with death or critical care escalation within the first 48 h of hospital stay.

Methods

Planned secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study at a single UK teaching hospital. Consecutive medical ward admissions over a 20-day period were included in the study. Data were collected from ambulance report forms, medical notes and electronic patient records. Pre-hospital NEWS was calculated retrospectively. The primary outcome was a composite of death or critical care unit escalation within 48 h of hospital admission. The secondary outcome was length of hospital stay.

Results

189 patients were included in the analysis. The median pre-hospital NEWS was 3 (IQR 1–5). 13 patients (6.9%) died or were escalated to the critical care unit within 48 h of hospital admission. Pre-hospital NEWS was associated with death or critical care unit escalation (OR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.04–1.51; p = 0.02), but NEWS on admission to hospital was more strongly associated with this outcome (OR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.18–1.97, p < 0.01). Neither was associated with hospital length of stay.

Conclusion

Pre-hospital NEWS was associated with death or critical care unit escalation within 48 h of hospital admission. NEWS could be used by ambulance crews to assist in the early triage of patients requiring hospital treatment or rapid transport. Further cohort studies or trials in large samples are required before implementation.

•

NEWS has a growing dominance in UK hospitals but is not widely used in ambulances.

•

NEWS calculated using ambulance observations is associated with in-hospital death and critical care unit admission.

•

NEWS could be used by ambulance crews as an objective tool to triage patients with acute illness.

•

A large scale trial should be carried out before widespread implementation of NEWS in ambulances.

•

It is unclear if NEWS could be used by a call-taker or bystander to triage a patient before the ambulance arrives.

A Comparison of the Ability of the Physiologic Components of Medical Emergency Team Criteria and the U.K. National Early Warning Score to Discriminate Patients at Risk of a Range of Adverse Clinical Outcomes

OBJECTIVE

To compare the ability of medical emergency team criteria and the National Early Warning Score to discriminate cardiac arrest, unanticipated ICU admission and death within 24 hours of a vital signs measurement, and to quantify the associated workload.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

A large U.K. National Health Service District General Hospital.

PATIENTS

Adults hospitalized from May 25, 2011, to December 31, 2013.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

We applied the National Early Warning Score and 44 sets of medical emergency team criteria to a database of 2,245,778 vital signs sets (103,998 admissions). The National Early Warning Score's performance was assessed using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve and compared with sensitivity/specificity for different medical emergency team criteria. Area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (95% CI) for the National Early Warning Score for the combined outcome (i.e., death, cardiac arrest, or unanticipated ICU admission) was 0.88 (0.88-0.88). A National Early Warning Score value of 7 had sensitivity/specificity values of 44.5% and 97.4%, respectively. For the 44 sets of medical emergency team criteria studied, sensitivity ranged from 19.6% to 71.2% and specificity from 71.5% to 98.5%. For all outcomes, the position of the National Early Warning Score receiver-operating characteristic curve was above and to the left of all medical emergency team criteria points, indicating better discrimination. Similarly, the positions of all medical emergency team criteria points were above and to the left of the National Early Warning Score efficiency curve, indicating higher workloads (trigger rates).

CONCLUSIONS

When medical emergency team systems are compared to a National Early Warning Score value of greater than or equal to 7, some medical emergency team systems have a higher sensitivity than National Early Warning Score values of greater than or equal to 7. However, all of these medical emergency team systems have a lower specificity and would generate greater workloads.

Can the prehospital National Early Warning Score identify patients most at risk from subsequent deterioration?

INTRODUCTION

The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) aids the early recognition of those at risk of becoming critically ill. NEWS has been recommended for use by ambulance services, but very little work has been undertaken to date to determine its suitability. This paper examines whether a prehospital NEWS derived from ambulance service clinical observations is associated with the hospital ED disposition.

METHODS

Prehospital NEWS was retrospectively calculated from the ambulance service clinical records of 287 patients who were treated by the ambulance service and transported to hospital. In this cohort study, derived NEWS scores were compared with ED disposition data and patients were categorised into the following groups depending on their outcome: discharged from ED, admitted to a ward, admitted to intensive therapy unit (ITU) or died.

RESULTS

Prehospital NEWS-based ambulance service clinical observations were significantly associated with discharge disposition groups (p<0.001), with scores escalating in line with increasing severity of outcome. Patients who died or were admitted to ITU had higher scores than those admitted to a ward or discharged from ED (mean NEWS 7.2 and 7.5 vs 2.6 and 1.7, respectively), and in turn those who were admitted to a ward had higher pre-hospital NEWS than those who were discharged (2.6 vs 1.7).

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that the NEWS could successfully be used by ambulance services to identify patients most at risk from subsequent deterioration. The implementation of this early warning system has the potential to support ambulance clinician decision making, providing an additional tool to identify and appropriately escalate care for acutely unwell patients.

Application of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) as a stratification tool on admission in an Italian acute medical ward: A perspective study

AIM

We aimed to assess the performance of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) as tool for patient risk stratification at admission in an acute Internal Medicine ward and to ensure patient placement in ward areas with the required and most appropriate intensity of care. As secondary objective, we considered NEWS performance in two subgroups of patients: sudden cardiac events (acute coronary syndromes and arrhythmic events), and chronic respiratory insufficiency.

METHODS

We conducted a perspective cohort single centre study on 2,677 unselected patients consecutively admitted from July 2013 to March 2015 in the Internal Medicine ward of the hospital of Trento, Italy. The NEWS was mandatory collected on ward admission. We defined three risk categories for clinical deterioration: low score (NEWS 0-4), medium score (NEWS 5-6), and high score (NEWS≥7). Following adverse outcomes were considered: total and early (<72 hours) in-hospital mortality, urgent transfers to a higher intensity of care. A logistic regression model quantified the association between outcomes and NEWS.

RESULTS

For patients with NEWS >4 vs patients with NEWS <4, the risk of early death increased from 12 to 36 times, total mortality from 3.5 to 9, and urgent transfers from 3.5 to 7. In patients with sudden cardiac events, lower scores were significantly associated with higher risk of transfer to a higher intensity of care. In patients affected by chronic hypoxaemia, adverse outcomes occurred less in medium and high score categories of NEWS.

CONCLUSIONS

National Early Warning Score assessed on ward admission may enable risk stratification of clinical deterioration and can be a good predictor of in-hospital serious adverse outcomes, although sudden cardiac events and chronic hypoxaemia could constitute some limits.

The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) for outcome prediction in emergency department patients with community-acquired pneumonia: results from a 6-year prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the accuracy of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) to predict mortality and adverse clinical outcomes for patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) compared to standard risk scores such as the pneumonia severity index (PSI) and CURB-65.

DESIGN

Secondary analysis of patients included in a previous randomised-controlled trial with a median follow-up of 6.1 years.

SETTINGS

Patients with CAP included on admission to the emergency departments (ED) of 6 tertiary care hospitals in Switzerland.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 925 patients with confirmed CAP were included. NEWS, PSI and CURB-65 scores were calculated on admission to the ED based on admission data.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Our primary outcome was all-cause mortality within 6 years of follow-up. Secondary outcomes were adverse clinical outcome defined as intensive care unit (ICU) admission, empyema and unplanned hospital readmission all occurring within 30 days after admission. We used regression models to study associations of baseline risk scores and outcomes with the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) as a measure of discrimination.

RESULTS

6-year overall mortality was 45.1% (n=417) with a stepwise increase with higher NEWS categories. For 30 day and 6-year mortality prediction, NEWS showed only low discrimination (AUC 0.65 and 0.60) inferior compared to PSI and CURB-65. For prediction of ICU admission, NEWS showed moderate discrimination (AUC 0.73) and improved the prognostic accuracy of a regression model, including PSI (AUC from 0.66 to 0.74, p=0.001) and CURB-65 (AUC from 0.64 to 0.73, p=0.015). NEWS was also superior to PSI and CURB-65 for prediction of empyema, but did not well predict rehospitalisation.

CONCLUSIONS

NEWS provides additional prognostic information with regard to risk of ICU admission and complications and thereby improves traditional clinical-risk scores in the management of patients with CAP in the ED setting.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN95122877; Post-results.

The National Early Warning Score: Translation, testing and prediction in a Swedish setting

The National Early Warning Score - NEWS is a "track and trigger" scale designed to assess in-hospital patients' vital signs and detect clinical deterioration. In this study the NEWS was translated into Swedish and its association with the need of intensive care was investigated. A total of 868 patient charts, recorded by the medical emergency team at a university hospital, containing the parameters needed to calculate the NEWS were audited. The NEWS was translated into Swedish and tested for inter-rater reliability with a perfect agreement (weighted κ=1.0) among the raters. The median score for patients admitted to the ICU were higher than for those who were not (10 vs. 8, p<0.0001). AUROC for discriminating admittance to the ICU was 0.68 (95% CI: 0.622-0.739, p<0.0001). A regression analysis showed that lower oxygen saturation and a lower level of consciousness were significantly associated with ICU admission (OR 1.27 [1.06-1.52], p=0.01 and OR 1.77 [1.12-2.82], p=0.02) and may predict admission to the ICU better than the other parameters. The Swedish translated NEWS seems to have excellent inter-rater reliability and can be used without risk of linguistic misinterpretation. High scores for the parameters oxygen saturation and level of consciousness in the NEWS may predict admission to the ICU.

National Early Warning Score (NEWS) as an emergency department predictor of disease severity and 90-day survival in the acutely dyspneic patient - a prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

National Early Warning Score (NEWS) was designed to detect deteriorating patients in hospital wards, specifically those at increased risk of ICU admission, cardiac arrest, or death within 24 h. NEWS is not validated for use in Emergency Departments (ED), but emerging data suggest it may be useful. A criticism of NEWS is that patients with chronic poor oxygenation, e.g. severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), will have elevated NEWS also in the absence of acute deterioration, possibly reducing the predictive power of NEWS in this subgroup. We wanted to prospectively evaluate the usefulness of NEWS in unselected adult patients emergently presenting in a Norwegian ED with respiratory distress as main symptom.

METHODS

In respiratory distressed patients, NEWS was calculated on ED arrival, after 2-4 h, and the next day. Manchester Triage Scale (MTS) category, age, gender, comorbidity (ASA score), ICU-admission, ventilatory support, and discharge diagnoses were noted. Survival status was tracked for >90 days through the Population Registry. Data are medians (25-75th percentiles). Factors predicting 90-day survival were analysed with multiple logistic regression.

RESULTS

We included 246 patients; 71 years old (60-80), 89 % home-dwelling, 74 % ASA 3-4, 72 % MTS 1-2, 88 % admitted to hospital. NEWS on arrival was 5 (3-7). NEWS correlated closely with MTS category and maximum in-hospital level of care (ED, ward, high-dependency unit, ICU). Sixteen patients died in-hospital, 26 died after discharge within 90 days. Controlled for age, ASA score, and COPD, a higher NEWS on ED arrival predicted poorer 90-day survival. Increased NEWS also correlated with decreased 30-day- and in-hospital survival and a decreased probability for home-dwelling patients to be discharged directly home.

DISCUSSION

In respiratory distressed patients, NEWS on ED arrival correlated closely with triage category and need of ICU admission and predicted long-term out-of-hospital survival controlled for age, comorbidity, and COPD.

CONCLUSIONS

NEWS should be explored in the ED setting to determine its role in clinical decision-making and in communication along the acute care chain.

Why the C-statistic is not informative to evaluate early warning scores and what metrics to use

Metrics typically used to report the performance of an early warning score (EWS), such as the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve or C-statistic, are not useful for pre-implementation analyses. Because physiological deterioration has an extremely low prevalence of 0.02 per patient-day, these metrics can be misleading. We discuss the statistical reasoning behind this statement and present a novel alternative metric more adequate to operationalize an EWS. We suggest that pre-implementation evaluation of EWSs should include at least two metrics: sensitivity; and either the positive predictive value, number needed to evaluate, or estimated rate of alerts. We also argue the importance of reporting each individual cutoff value.

A single-centre observational cohort study of admission National Early Warning Score (NEWS)

INTRODUCTION

Early warning scores are commonly used in hospitals to identify patients at risk of deterioration. The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) has recently been introduced to UK practice. However, it is not yet widely implemented. We aimed to compare NEWS to the early warning score currently used in our hospital--the Patient at Risk Score (PARS).

METHODS

We conducted a prospective observational cohort study of all adult general medical patients admitted to a single hospital over a 20-day period. Physiological data and early warning scores recorded in bedside charts were collected on admission and a NEWS score was retrospectively calculated. The patient notes were reviewed at 48 h after admission. The primary outcome was a composite of critical care admission or death within 2 days of admission. The secondary outcome was hospital length of stay.

RESULTS

NEWS was more strongly associated with the primary outcome than PARS (odds ratio 1.54, p < 0.001 compared to 1.42, p = 0.056). A NEWS of 3 or more was associated with the primary outcome (odds ratio 7.03, p = 0.003). Neither score was correlated with hospital length of stay.

CONCLUSION

NEWS on admission is superior to PARS for identifying patients at risk of death or critical care admission within the first 2 days of hospital stay. Current guidelines advocate a threshold of 5 for triggering a clinical review. However, since a score of 3 or more was associated with a poor outcome, this recommendation should be reviewed. Both scores were poor predictors of hospital length of stay.