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Luo Y, Dong R, Liu J, Wu B. A machine learning-based predictive model for the in-hospital mortality of critically ill patients with atrial fibrillation. Int J Med Inform 2024; 191:105585. [PMID: 39098165 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijmedinf.2024.105585] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/29/2024] [Revised: 07/10/2024] [Accepted: 07/30/2024] [Indexed: 08/06/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common among intensive care unit (ICU) patients and significantly raises the in-hospital mortality rate. Existing scoring systems or models have limited predictive capabilities for AF patients in ICU. Our study developed and validated machine learning models to predict the risk of in-hospital mortality in ICU patients with AF. METHODS AND RESULTS Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV dataset and eICU Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD) were analyzed. Among ten classifiers compared, adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) showed better performance in predicting all-cause mortality in AF patients. A compact model with 15 features was developed and validated. Both the all variable and compact models exhibited excellent performance with area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of 1(95%confidence interval [CI]: 1.0-1.0) in the training set. In the MIMIC-IV testing set, the AUCs of the all variable and compact models were 0.978 (95% CI: 0.973-0.982) and 0.977 (95% CI: 0.972-0.982), respectively. In the external validation set, the AUCs of all variable and compact models were 0.825 (95% CI: 0.815-0.834) and 0.807 (95% CI: 0.796-0.817), respectively. CONCLUSION An AdaBoost-based predictive model was subjected to internal and external validation, highlighting its strong predictive capacity for assessing the risk of in-hospital mortality in ICU patients with AF.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yanting Luo
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Third Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Ruimin Dong
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Third Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Jinlai Liu
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Third Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Bingyuan Wu
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Third Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China.
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2
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Hasjim BJ, Huang AA, Paukner M, Polineni P, Harris A, Mohammadi M, Kershaw KN, Banea T, VanWagner LB, Zhao L, Mehrotra S, Ladner DP. Where you live matters: Area deprivation predicts poor survival and liver transplant waitlisting. Am J Transplant 2024; 24:803-817. [PMID: 38346498 PMCID: PMC11070293 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajt.2024.02.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/25/2023] [Revised: 01/25/2024] [Accepted: 02/08/2024] [Indexed: 03/03/2024]
Abstract
Social determinants of health (SDOH) are important predictors of poor clinical outcomes in chronic diseases, but their associations among the general cirrhosis population and liver transplantation (LT) are limited. We conducted a retrospective, multiinstitutional analysis of adult (≥18-years-old) patients with cirrhosis in metropolitan Chicago to determine the associations of poor neighborhood-level SDOH on decompensation complications, mortality, and LT waitlisting. Area deprivation index and covariates extracted from the American Census Survey were aspects of SDOH that were investigated. Among 15 101 patients with cirrhosis, the mean age was 57.2 years; 6414 (42.5%) were women, 6589 (43.6%) were non-Hispanic White, 3652 (24.2%) were non-Hispanic Black, and 2662 (17.6%) were Hispanic. Each quintile increase in area deprivation was associated with poor outcomes in decompensation (sHR [subdistribution hazard ratio] 1.07; 95% CI 1.05-1.10; P < .001), waitlisting (sHR 0.72; 95% CI 0.67-0.76; P < .001), and all-cause mortality (sHR 1.09; 95% CI 1.06-1.12; P < .001). Domains of SDOH associated with a lower likelihood of waitlisting and survival included low income, low education, poor household conditions, and social support (P < .001). Overall, patients with cirrhosis residing in poor neighborhood-level SDOH had higher decompensation, and mortality, and were less likely to be waitlisted for LT. Further exploration of structural barriers toward LT or optimizing health outcomes is warranted.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bima J Hasjim
- Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Comprehensive Transplant Center (CTC), Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois, USA
| | - Alexander A Huang
- Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Comprehensive Transplant Center (CTC), Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois, USA
| | - Mitchell Paukner
- Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Comprehensive Transplant Center (CTC), Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois, USA; Division of Biostatistics, Department of Preventive Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois, USA
| | - Praneet Polineni
- Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Comprehensive Transplant Center (CTC), Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois, USA
| | - Alexandra Harris
- Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Comprehensive Transplant Center (CTC), Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois, USA; Institute for Public Health and Medicine (IPHAM), Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois, USA
| | - Mohsen Mohammadi
- Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Comprehensive Transplant Center (CTC), Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois, USA; Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Sciences, McCormick School of Engineering, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois, USA
| | - Kiarri N Kershaw
- Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Comprehensive Transplant Center (CTC), Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois, USA; Division of Epidemiology, Department of Preventive Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois, USA
| | - Therese Banea
- Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Comprehensive Transplant Center (CTC), Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois, USA
| | - Lisa B VanWagner
- Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Comprehensive Transplant Center (CTC), Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois, USA; Division of Digestive and Liver Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, Texas, USA
| | - Lihui Zhao
- Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Comprehensive Transplant Center (CTC), Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois, USA; Division of Biostatistics, Department of Preventive Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois, USA
| | - Sanjay Mehrotra
- Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Comprehensive Transplant Center (CTC), Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois, USA; Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Sciences, McCormick School of Engineering, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois, USA
| | - Daniela P Ladner
- Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Comprehensive Transplant Center (CTC), Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois, USA; Division of Organ Transplantation, Department of Surgery, Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois, USA.
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3
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Goldberg DS, McKenna GJ. Transplant center variability in utilizing nonstandard donors and its impact on the transplantation of patients with lower MELD scores. Liver Transpl 2024; 30:461-471. [PMID: 37902549 DOI: 10.1097/lvt.0000000000000294] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/05/2023] [Accepted: 10/19/2023] [Indexed: 10/31/2023]
Abstract
There is a subset of patients with lower MELD scores who are at substantial risk of waitlist mortality. In order to transplant such patients, transplant centers must utilize "nonstandard" donors (eg, living donors, donation after circulatory death), which are traditionally offered to those patients who are not at the top of the waitlist. We used Organ Procurement and Transplantation data to evaluate center-level and region-level variability in the utilization of nonstandard donors and its impact on MELD at transplant among adult liver-alone non-status 1 patients transplanted from April 1, 2020, to September 30, 2022. The center-level variability in the utilization of nonstandard donors was 4-fold greater than the center-level variability in waitlisting practices (waitlistings with a MELD score of <20). While there was a moderate correlation between center-level waitlisting and transplantation of patients with a MELD score of <20 ( p = 0.58), there was a strong correlation between center-level utilization of nonstandard donors and center-level transplantation of patients with a MELD score of <20 ( p = 0.75). This strong correlation between center-level utilization of "nonstandard" donors and center-level transplantation of patients with a MELD score of <20 was limited to regions 2, 4, 5, 9, and 11. Transplant centers that utilize more nonstandard donors are more likely to successfully transplant patients at lower MELD scores. Public reporting of these data could benefit patients, caregivers, and referring providers, and be used to help maximize organ utilization.
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Affiliation(s)
- David S Goldberg
- Division of Digestive Health and Liver Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, Florida, USA
- Department of Public Health Sciences, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, Florida, USA
| | - Gregory J McKenna
- Department of Surgery, Baylor University Medical Center, Baylor Simmons Transplant Institute, Dallas, Texas, USA
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4
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Mazumder NR, Fontana RJ. MELD 3.0 in Advanced Chronic Liver Disease. Annu Rev Med 2024; 75:233-245. [PMID: 37751367 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-med-051322-122539] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 09/28/2023]
Abstract
The MELD (model for end-stage liver disease) 3.0 score was developed to replace the MELD-Na score that is currently used to prioritize liver allocation for cirrhotic patients awaiting liver transplantation in the United States. The MELD 3.0 calculator includes new inputs from patient sex and serum albumin levels and has new weights for serum sodium, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, and creatinine levels. It is expected that use of MELD 3.0 scores will reduce overall waitlist mortality modestly and improve access for female liver transplant candidates. The utility of MELD 3.0 and PELDcre (pediatric end-stage liver disease, creatinine) scores for risk stratification in cirrhotic patients undergoing major abdominal surgery, placement of a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt, and other interventions requires further study. This article reviews the background of the MELD score and the rationale to create MELD 3.0 as well as potential implications of using this newer risk stratification tool in clinical practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nikhilesh R Mazumder
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; ,
- Gastroenterology Section, Ann Arbor Veterans Affairs Healthcare System, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
| | - Robert J Fontana
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; ,
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Batisti J, Jakab SS. Hospitalized patients with cirrhosis: Addressing gaps in care. Clin Liver Dis (Hoboken) 2024; 23:e0211. [PMID: 38961874 PMCID: PMC11221856 DOI: 10.1097/cld.0000000000000211] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/13/2024] [Accepted: 04/15/2024] [Indexed: 07/05/2024] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Jennifer Batisti
- Section of Digestive Diseases, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
| | - Sofia S. Jakab
- Section of Digestive Diseases, Yale University School of Medicine, VA Connecticut Healthcare System, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
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Oh N, Kim JM, Han S, Jo SJ, An S, Park S, Yoon SO, Yang J, Kwon J, Lee N, Rhu J, Choi GS, Joh JW. Survival after living donor liver transplantation versus best supportive care in patients with end-stage liver disease with various MELD-Na scores: retrospective cohort study. BJS Open 2023; 7:zrad127. [PMID: 38011798 PMCID: PMC10681711 DOI: 10.1093/bjsopen/zrad127] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/03/2023] [Revised: 06/04/2023] [Accepted: 06/10/2023] [Indexed: 11/29/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Namkee Oh
- Department of Surgery, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Jong Man Kim
- Department of Surgery, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Seungwook Han
- Department of Surgery, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Sung Jun Jo
- Department of Surgery, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Sunghyo An
- Department of Surgery, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Sunghae Park
- Department of Surgery, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Sang Oh Yoon
- Department of Surgery, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Jaehun Yang
- Department of Surgery, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Jieun Kwon
- Department of Surgery, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Nuri Lee
- Department of Surgery, Veterans Health Service Medical Center, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Jinsoo Rhu
- Department of Surgery, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Gyu-Seong Choi
- Department of Surgery, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Jae-Won Joh
- Department of Surgery, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
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7
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Díaz LA, Fuentes-López E, Ayares G, Idalsoaga F, Arnold J, Valverde MA, Perez D, Gómez J, Escarate R, Villalón A, Ramírez CA, Hernandez-Tejero M, Zhang W, Qian S, Simonetto DA, Ahn JC, Buryska S, Dunn W, Mehta H, Agrawal R, Cabezas J, García-Carrera I, Cuyàs B, Poca M, Soriano G, Sarin SK, Maiwall R, Jalal PK, Abdulsada S, Higuera-de-la-Tijera F, Kulkarni AV, Rao PN, Salazar PG, Skladaný L, Bystrianska N, Clemente-Sanchez A, Villaseca-Gómez C, Haider T, Chacko KR, Romero GA, Pollarsky FD, Restrepo JC, Castro-Sanchez S, Toro LG, Yaquich P, Mendizabal M, Garrido ML, Marciano S, Dirchwolf M, Vargas V, Jiménez C, Louvet A, García-Tsao G, Roblero JP, Abraldes JG, Shah VH, Kamath PS, Arrese M, Singal AK, Bataller R, Arab JP. MELD 3.0 adequately predicts mortality and renal replacement therapy requirements in patients with alcohol-associated hepatitis. JHEP Rep 2023; 5:100727. [PMID: 37456675 PMCID: PMC10339256 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhepr.2023.100727] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/06/2022] [Revised: 02/22/2023] [Accepted: 02/27/2023] [Indexed: 07/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Background & Aims Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score better predicts mortality in alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) but could underestimate severity in women and malnourished patients. Using a global cohort, we assessed the ability of the MELD 3.0 score to predict short-term mortality in AH. Methods This was a retrospective cohort study of patients admitted to hospital with AH from 2009 to 2019. The main outcome was all-cause 30-day mortality. We compared the AUC using DeLong's method and also performed a time-dependent AUC with competing risks analysis. Results A total of 2,124 patients were included from 28 centres from 10 countries on three continents (median age 47.2 ± 11.2 years, 29.9% women, 71.3% with underlying cirrhosis). The median MELD 3.0 score at admission was 25 (20-33), with an estimated survival of 73.7% at 30 days. The MELD 3.0 score had a better performance in predicting 30-day mortality (AUC:0.761, 95%CI:0.732-0.791) compared with MELD sodium (MELD-Na; AUC: 0.744, 95% CI: 0.713-0.775; p = 0.042) and Maddrey's discriminant function (mDF) (AUC: 0.724, 95% CI: 0.691-0.757; p = 0.013). However, MELD 3.0 did not perform better than traditional MELD (AUC: 0.753, 95% CI: 0.723-0.783; p = 0.300) and Age-Bilirubin-International Normalised Ratio-Creatinine (ABIC) (AUC:0.757, 95% CI: 0.727-0.788; p = 0.765). These results were consistent in competing-risk analysis, where MELD 3.0 (AUC: 0.757, 95% CI: 0.724-0.790) predicted better 30-day mortality compared with MELD-Na (AUC: 0.739, 95% CI: 0.708-0.770; p = 0.028) and mDF (AUC:0.717, 95% CI: 0.687-0.748; p = 0.042). The MELD 3.0 score was significantly better in predicting renal replacement therapy requirements during admission compared with the other scores (AUC: 0.844, 95% CI: 0.805-0.883). Conclusions MELD 3.0 demonstrated better performance compared with MELD-Na and mDF in predicting 30-day and 90-day mortality, and was the best predictor of renal replacement therapy requirements during admission for AH. However, further prospective studies are needed to validate its extensive use in AH. Impact and implications Severe AH has high short-term mortality. The establishment of treatments and liver transplantation depends on mortality prediction. We evaluated the performance of the new MELD 3.0 score to predict short-term mortality in AH in a large global cohort. MELD 3.0 performed better in predicting 30- and 90-day mortality compared with MELD-Na and mDF, but was similar to MELD and ABIC scores. MELD 3.0 was the best predictor of renal replacement therapy requirements. Thus, further prospective studies are needed to support the wide use of MELD 3.0 in AH.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luis Antonio Díaz
- Departamento de Gastroenterología, Escuela de Medicina, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
| | - Eduardo Fuentes-López
- Departamento de Ciencias de la Salud, Facultad de Medicina, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
| | - Gustavo Ayares
- Departamento de Gastroenterología, Escuela de Medicina, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
| | - Francisco Idalsoaga
- Departamento de Gastroenterología, Escuela de Medicina, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
| | - Jorge Arnold
- Departamento de Gastroenterología, Escuela de Medicina, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
| | | | - Diego Perez
- Servicio Medicina Interna, Hospital El Pino, Santiago, Chile
| | - Jaime Gómez
- Servicio Medicina Interna, Hospital El Pino, Santiago, Chile
| | | | - Alejandro Villalón
- Departamento de Gastroenterología, Escuela de Medicina, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
- Departamento de Ciencias Médicas, Facultad de Medicina y Odontología, Universidad de Antofagasta, Antofagasta, Chile
| | - Carolina A. Ramírez
- Department of Anesthesia & Perioperative Medicine, Western University, London, ON, Canada
| | - Maria Hernandez-Tejero
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA
- Liver Unit, Hospital Clinic, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Wei Zhang
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
- Gastroenterology Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Steve Qian
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | | | - Joseph C. Ahn
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA
| | - Seth Buryska
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA
| | | | - Heer Mehta
- University of Kansas Medical Center, KS, USA
| | - Rohit Agrawal
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Illinois, Chicago, IL, USA
| | - Joaquín Cabezas
- Gastroenterology and Hepatology Department. University Hospital Marqués de Valdecilla, Santander, Spain
- Research Institute Valdecilla (IDIVAL), Santander, Spain
| | - Inés García-Carrera
- Gastroenterology and Hepatology Department. University Hospital Marqués de Valdecilla, Santander, Spain
- Research Institute Valdecilla (IDIVAL), Santander, Spain
| | - Berta Cuyàs
- Department of Gastroenterology, Hospital de la Santa Creu i Sant Pau, Institut de Recerca Hospital de Sant Pau-IIB Sant Pau, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, CIBERehd, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Maria Poca
- Department of Gastroenterology, Hospital de la Santa Creu i Sant Pau, Institut de Recerca Hospital de Sant Pau-IIB Sant Pau, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, CIBERehd, Barcelona, Spain
| | - German Soriano
- Department of Gastroenterology, Hospital de la Santa Creu i Sant Pau, Institut de Recerca Hospital de Sant Pau-IIB Sant Pau, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, CIBERehd, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Shiv K. Sarin
- Department of Hepatology, Institute of Liver and Biliary Sciences, New Delhi, India
| | - Rakhi Maiwall
- Department of Hepatology, Institute of Liver and Biliary Sciences, New Delhi, India
| | - Prasun K. Jalal
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
| | - Saba Abdulsada
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
| | - Fátima Higuera-de-la-Tijera
- Servicio de Gastroenterología, Hospital General de México ‘Dr. Eduardo Liceaga’, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México City, Mexico
| | - Anand V. Kulkarni
- Department of Hepatology, Asian Institute of Gastroenterology, Hyderabad, India
| | - P. Nagaraja Rao
- Department of Hepatology, Asian Institute of Gastroenterology, Hyderabad, India
| | | | - Lubomir Skladaný
- Division of Hepatology, Gastroenterology and Liver Transplantation, Department of Internal Medicine II, Slovak Medical University, F.D. Roosevelt University Hospital, Banska Bystrica, Slovak Republic
| | - Natália Bystrianska
- Division of Hepatology, Gastroenterology and Liver Transplantation, Department of Internal Medicine II, Slovak Medical University, F.D. Roosevelt University Hospital, Banska Bystrica, Slovak Republic
| | - Ana Clemente-Sanchez
- Liver Unit, Department of Digestive Diseases Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón Madrid, Madrid, Spain
- CIBERehd Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - Clara Villaseca-Gómez
- Liver Unit, Department of Digestive Diseases Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón Madrid, Madrid, Spain
- CIBERehd Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - Tehseen Haider
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Montefiore Medical Center, Bronx, NY, USA
| | - Kristina R. Chacko
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Montefiore Medical Center, Bronx, NY, USA
| | - Gustavo A. Romero
- Sección Hepatología, Hospital de Gastroenterología Dr. Carlos Bonorino Udaondo, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Florencia D. Pollarsky
- Sección Hepatología, Hospital de Gastroenterología Dr. Carlos Bonorino Udaondo, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Juan Carlos Restrepo
- Unidad de Hepatología del Hospital Pablo Tobon Uribe, Grupo de Gastrohepatología de la Universidad de Antioquia, Medellín, Colombia
| | - Susana Castro-Sanchez
- Unidad de Hepatología del Hospital Pablo Tobon Uribe, Grupo de Gastrohepatología de la Universidad de Antioquia, Medellín, Colombia
| | - Luis G. Toro
- Hepatology and Liver Transplant Unit, Hospitales de San Vicente Fundación de Medellín y Rionegro, Medellín, Colombia
| | - Pamela Yaquich
- Departamento de Gastroenterología, Hospital San Juan de Dios, Santiago, Chile
| | - Manuel Mendizabal
- Hepatology and Liver Transplant Unit, Hospital Universitario Austral, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | | | | | - Melisa Dirchwolf
- Unidad de Hígado, Hospital Privado de Rosario, Rosario, Argentina
| | - Victor Vargas
- Liver Unit, Hospital Vall d’Hebron, Vall d'Hebron Research Institute (VHIR), Universitat Autonoma Barcelona, CIBEREHD, Barcelona, Spain
| | - César Jiménez
- Liver Unit, Hospital Vall d’Hebron, Vall d'Hebron Research Institute (VHIR), Universitat Autonoma Barcelona, CIBEREHD, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Alexandre Louvet
- Hôpital Claude Huriez, Services des Maladies de l'Appareil Digestif, CHRU Lille, and Unité INSERM 995, Lille, France
| | - Guadalupe García-Tsao
- Section of Digestive Diseases, Yale University School of Medicine/VA-CT Healthcare System, New Haven/West Haven, CT, USA
| | - Juan Pablo Roblero
- Sección Gastroenterología, Hospital Clínico Universidad de Chile, Escuela de Medicina Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
| | - Juan G. Abraldes
- Division of Gastroenterology, Liver Unit, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada
| | - Vijay H. Shah
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA
| | - Patrick S. Kamath
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA
| | - Marco Arrese
- Departamento de Gastroenterología, Escuela de Medicina, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
| | - Ashwani K. Singal
- Department of Medicine, University of South Dakota Sanford School of Medicine and Transplant Hepatology, Avera Transplant Institute, Sioux Falls, SD, USA
| | | | - Juan Pablo Arab
- Departamento de Gastroenterología, Escuela de Medicina, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Schulich School of Medicine, Western University & London Health Sciences Centre, London, ONT, Canada
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Schulich School of Medicine, Western University, London, ONT, Canada
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8
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Bhat M, Rabindranath M, Chara BS, Simonetto DA. Artificial intelligence, machine learning, and deep learning in liver transplantation. J Hepatol 2023; 78:1216-1233. [PMID: 37208107 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhep.2023.01.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/15/2022] [Revised: 01/11/2023] [Accepted: 01/16/2023] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Liver transplantation (LT) is a life-saving treatment for individuals with end-stage liver disease. The management of LT recipients is complex, predominantly because of the need to consider demographic, clinical, laboratory, pathology, imaging, and omics data in the development of an appropriate treatment plan. Current methods to collate clinical information are susceptible to some degree of subjectivity; thus, clinical decision-making in LT could benefit from the data-driven approach offered by artificial intelligence (AI). Machine learning and deep learning could be applied in both the pre- and post-LT settings. Some examples of AI applications pre-transplant include optimising transplant candidacy decision-making and donor-recipient matching to reduce waitlist mortality and improve post-transplant outcomes. In the post-LT setting, AI could help guide the management of LT recipients, particularly by predicting patient and graft survival, along with identifying risk factors for disease recurrence and other associated complications. Although AI shows promise in medicine, there are limitations to its clinical deployment which include dataset imbalances for model training, data privacy issues, and a lack of available research practices to benchmark model performance in the real world. Overall, AI tools have the potential to enhance personalised clinical decision-making, especially in the context of liver transplant medicine.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mamatha Bhat
- Ajmera Transplant Program, University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada; Toronto General Hospital Research Institute, University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada; Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Division of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
| | - Madhumitha Rabindranath
- Ajmera Transplant Program, University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada; Toronto General Hospital Research Institute, University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada; Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Beatriz Sordi Chara
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
| | - Douglas A Simonetto
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
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9
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Alves BC, Luchi-Cruz MM, Lopes AB, Saueressig C, Dall'Alba V. Predicting dry weight in patients with cirrhotic ascites undergoing large-volume paracentesis. Clin Nutr ESPEN 2023; 54:34-40. [PMID: 36963881 DOI: 10.1016/j.clnesp.2023.01.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/19/2022] [Revised: 12/26/2022] [Accepted: 01/04/2023] [Indexed: 01/12/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS Ascites impairs the correct diagnosis and nutritional management in patients with cirrhosis, because the body weight, which is needed for nutritional assessment and calculation of nutritional needs, is overestimated. To adjust the weight in patients with ascites, dietetic guidances indicate substracting 2.2-14 kg or 5-15% of the measured body weight according to the degree of ascites, however, there is a lack of evidence to substantiate these values. The aim of this study was to develop new prediction equations to estimate the dry weight, comparing them with the currently used weight adjustments in patients with refractory cirrhotic ascites. METHODS Cross-sectional study, that included patients with decompensated cirrhosis undergoing large-volume paracentesis. Patients were submitted to nutritional risk screening, nutritional assessment, and anthropometric measurements that included body weight, abdominal circumference (both measured before and after paracentesis) height, and upper mid-arm circumference. The volume of ascitic fluid drained was also registered. For the predictions of dry weight, linear regression models were performed using as predictor variables: height, pre-paracentesis weight, pre-paracentesis abdominal circumference, or mid-upper arm circumference, and as response variable: post-paracentesis weight. The capacity of these models to predict the post-paracentesis weight was evaluated by comparing it with the currently used predictions through the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and the mean squared error (MSE). RESULTS Nineteen patients were included, 15 male, and 18 with high nutritional risk and malnutrition. The difference between post-paracentesis weight and pre-paracentesis weight was -5.0 (-3.6 to -9.9) kg, similar to ascitic fluid volume drained. Two equations were developed to predict post-paracentesis weight. ICC values showed that both prediction equations were strongly correlated (r > 0.94) with post-paracentesis weight. Our models also showed lower MSEs (<17.97), compared with the current predictions (MSEs <64.19, when the pre-paracentesis weight is adjusted from absolute values and MSEs <33.24 when adjusted from percentage values), indicating a more accurate prediction. CONCLUSION The predictive equations from this study may be better options for dry weight estimation in patients with refractory cirrhotic ascites since they showed higher reliability compared to the currently used weight adjustment. External validation in a larger sample is still needed to confirm the clinical applicability of these equations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bruna Cherubini Alves
- Graduate Program: Sciences in Gastroenterology and Hepatology, School of Medicine, Universidade Federal Do Rio Grande Do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
| | | | - Antonio Barros Lopes
- Graduate Program: Sciences in Gastroenterology and Hepatology, School of Medicine, Universidade Federal Do Rio Grande Do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil; Division of Gastroenterogy and Hepatology, Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre; Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
| | - Camila Saueressig
- Graduate Program: Sciences in Gastroenterology and Hepatology, School of Medicine, Universidade Federal Do Rio Grande Do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
| | - Valesca Dall'Alba
- Graduate Program: Sciences in Gastroenterology and Hepatology, School of Medicine, Universidade Federal Do Rio Grande Do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil; Undergraduate Nutrition Course, School of Medicine, UFRGS; Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil; Division of Nutrition and Dietetics, Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre; Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil; Graduate Program in Food, Nutrition and Health, School of Medicine, UFRGS, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
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10
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Jesse MT, Jackson WE, Liapakis A, Ganesh S, Humar A, Goldaracena N, Levitsky J, Mulligan D, Pomfret EA, Ladner DP, Roberts JP, Mavis A, Thiessen C, Trotter J, Winder GS, Griesemer AD, Pillai A, Kumar V, Verna EC, LaPointe Rudow D, Han HH. Living donor liver transplant candidate and donor selection and engagement: Meeting report from the living donor liver transplant consensus conference. Clin Transplant 2023:e14954. [PMID: 36892182 DOI: 10.1111/ctr.14954] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/28/2022] [Revised: 02/14/2023] [Accepted: 02/25/2023] [Indexed: 03/10/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) is a promising option for mitigating the deceased donor organ shortage and reducing waitlist mortality. Despite excellent outcomes and data supporting expanding candidate indications for LDLT, broader uptake throughout the United States has yet to occur. METHODS In response to this, the American Society of Transplantation hosted a virtual consensus conference (October 18-19, 2021), bringing together relevant experts with the aim of identifying barriers to broader implementation and making recommendations regarding strategies to address these barriers. In this report, we summarize the findings relevant to the selection and engagement of both the LDLT candidate and living donor. Utilizing a modified Delphi approach, barrier and strategy statements were developed, refined, and voted on for overall barrier importance and potential impact and feasibility of the strategy to address said barrier. RESULTS Barriers identified fell into three general categories: 1) awareness, acceptance, and engagement across patients (potential candidates and donors), providers, and institutions, 2) data gaps and lack of standardization in candidate and donor selection, and 3) data gaps regarding post-living liver donation outcomes and resource needs. CONCLUSIONS Strategies to address barriers included efforts toward education and engagement across populations, rigorous and collaborative research, and institutional commitment and resources.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michelle T Jesse
- Transplant Institute, Henry Ford Health System, Detroit, Michigan, USA
| | - Whitney E Jackson
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Colorado, Aurora, Colorado, USA
| | - AnnMarie Liapakis
- Yale School of Medicine and Yale New Haven Transplant Center, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
| | - Swaytha Ganesh
- Thomas E Starzl Transplant Institute, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Abhinav Humar
- Thomas E Starzl Transplant Institute, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Nicolas Goldaracena
- Division of Transplant Surgery, University of Virginia Health System, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA
| | - Josh Levitsky
- Comprehensive Transplant Center, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, Illinois, USA
| | - David Mulligan
- Division of Transplant Surgery, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
| | | | - Daniela P Ladner
- Comprehensive Transplant Center, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, Illinois, USA
| | - John P Roberts
- UCSF Department of Surgery, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Alisha Mavis
- Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology, and Nutrition, Duke University Health, Durham, North Carolina, USA
| | - Carrie Thiessen
- University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
| | - James Trotter
- Transplant Hepatology, Baylor University Medical Center, Dallas, Texas, USA
| | | | - Adam D Griesemer
- Department of Surgery, NYU Langone Heath, New York, New York, USA
| | - Anjana Pillai
- Department of Internal Medicine, University of Chicago Medicine, Chicago, Illinois, USA
| | - Vineeta Kumar
- Department of Medicine, Division of Nephrology/Transplant, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, Alabama, USA
| | - Elizabeth C Verna
- Center for Liver Disease and Transplantation, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
| | - Dianne LaPointe Rudow
- Recanati/Miller Transplantation Institute, Mount Sinai Hospital, New York, New York, USA
| | - Hyosun H Han
- Division of Gastrointestinal and Liver Diseases, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, USA
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11
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Ouyang R, Li H, Tan W, Wang X, Zheng X, Huang Y, Meng Z, Gao Y, Qian Z, Liu F, Lu X, Shi Y, Shang J, Liu J, Deng G, Zheng Y, Yan H, Jiang X, Zhang Y, Qiao L, Zhou Y, Hou Y, Xiong Y, Chen J, Luo S, Gao N, Ji L, Li J, Zheng R, Ren H, Wang H, Zhong G, Li B, Chen J. Portal vein thrombosis compromises the performance of MELD and MELD-Na scores in patients with cirrhosis. J Gastroenterol Hepatol 2023; 38:129-137. [PMID: 36345143 DOI: 10.1111/jgh.16053] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/07/2022] [Revised: 10/24/2022] [Accepted: 11/01/2022] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS The accuracy of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and MELD with sodium (MELD-Na) scores in reflecting the clinical outcomes of patients with cirrhosis and portal vein thrombosis (PVT) remains unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of scores in predicting 90-day mortality in patients with cirrhosis and PVT. METHODS Post hoc analysis was performed in two prospective cohorts (NCT02457637 and NCT03641872). The correlation between the MELD/MELD-Na score and 90-day liver transplantation (LT)-free mortality was investigated in patients with cirrhosis with and without PVT. RESULTS In this study, 2826 patients with cirrhosis were included, and 255 (9.02%) had PVT. The cumulative incidence of 90-day LT-free mortality did not significantly differ between patients with and without PVT (log-rank P = 0.0854). MELD [area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC), 0.649 vs. 0.842; P = 0.0036] and MELD-Na scores (AUROC, 0.691 vs. 0.851; P = 0.0108) were compared in patients with and without PVT, regarding the prediction of 90-day LT-free mortality. In MELD < 15 and MELD-Na < 20 subgroups, patients with PVT had a higher 90-day LT-free mortality than those without PVT (7.91% vs. 2.64%, log-rank P = 0.0011; 7.14% vs. 3.43%, log-rank P = 0.0223), whereas in MELD ≥ 15 and MELD-Na ≥ 20 subgroups, no significant difference was observed between patients with and without PVT. CONCLUSIONS The performance of MELD and MELD-Na scores in predicting 90-day LT-free mortality of patients with cirrhosis was compromised by PVT. MELD < 15 or MELD-Na < 20 may underestimate the 90-day LT-free mortality in patients with PVT.
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Affiliation(s)
- Renjie Ouyang
- Hepatology Unit, Department of Infectious Diseases, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China.,Department of Hepatology, Chenzhou No.1 People's Hospital, Chenzhou, China
| | - Hai Li
- Department of Gastroenterology, Ren Ji Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China
| | - Wenting Tan
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Southwest Hospital, Third Military Medical University (Army Medical University), Chongqing, China
| | - Xianbo Wang
- Center of Integrative Medicine, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Xin Zheng
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Institute of Infection and Immunology, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
| | - Yan Huang
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Hunan Key Laboratory of Viral Hepatitis, Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, China
| | - Zhongji Meng
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Hubei Clinical Research Center for Precise Diagnosis and Treatment of Liver Cancer, Taihe Hospital, Hubei University of Medicine, Shiyan, China
| | - Yanhang Gao
- Department of Hepatology, The First Hospital of Jilin University, Jilin, China
| | - Zhiping Qian
- Department of Liver Intensive Care Unit, Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Feng Liu
- Department of Infectious Diseases and Hepatology, The Second Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Xiaobo Lu
- Infectious Disease Center, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Xinjiang, China
| | - Yu Shi
- State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Disease, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Jia Shang
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Henan Provincial People's Hospital, Zhengzhou, China
| | - Junping Liu
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Henan Provincial People's Hospital, Zhengzhou, China
| | - Guohong Deng
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Southwest Hospital, Third Military Medical University (Army Medical University), Chongqing, China
| | - Yubao Zheng
- Department of Infectious Diseases, The Third Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Huadong Yan
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Shulan Hospital Affiliated to Zhejiang, Shuren University, Shulan International Medical College, Hangzhou, China
| | - Xiuhua Jiang
- Hepatology Unit, Department of Infectious Diseases, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Yan Zhang
- Department of Gastroenterology, Ren Ji Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China
| | - Liang Qiao
- Department of Gastroenterology, Ren Ji Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China
| | - Yi Zhou
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Southwest Hospital, Third Military Medical University (Army Medical University), Chongqing, China
| | - Yixin Hou
- Center of Integrative Medicine, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Yan Xiong
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Institute of Infection and Immunology, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
| | - Jun Chen
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Hunan Key Laboratory of Viral Hepatitis, Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, China
| | - Sen Luo
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Hubei Clinical Research Center for Precise Diagnosis and Treatment of Liver Cancer, Taihe Hospital, Hubei University of Medicine, Shiyan, China
| | - Na Gao
- Department of Hepatology, The First Hospital of Jilin University, Jilin, China
| | - Liujuan Ji
- Department of Liver Intensive Care Unit, Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Jing Li
- Department of Infectious Diseases and Hepatology, The Second Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Rongjiong Zheng
- Infectious Disease Center, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Xinjiang, China
| | - Haotang Ren
- State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Disease, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Haiyu Wang
- Hepatology Unit, Department of Infectious Diseases, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Guotao Zhong
- Hepatology Unit, Department of Infectious Diseases, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Beiling Li
- Hepatology Unit, Department of Infectious Diseases, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Jinjun Chen
- Hepatology Unit, Department of Infectious Diseases, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China.,Hepatology Unit, Zengcheng Branch, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China.,Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Viral Hepatitis Research, Guangzhou, China
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12
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Goldberg D, Mantero A, Kaplan D, Delgado C, John B, Nuchovich N, Emanuel E, Reese PP. Accurate long-term prediction of death for patients with cirrhosis. Hepatology 2022; 76:700-711. [PMID: 35278226 PMCID: PMC9378359 DOI: 10.1002/hep.32457] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2021] [Revised: 03/03/2022] [Accepted: 03/08/2022] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS Cirrhosis is a major cause of death and is associated with extensive health care use. Patients with cirrhosis have complex treatment choices due to risks of morbidity and mortality. To optimally counsel and treat patients with cirrhosis requires tools to predict their longer-term liver-related survival. We sought to develop and validate a risk score to predict longer-term survival of patients with cirrhosis. APPROACH AND RESULTS We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adults with cirrhosis with no major life-limiting comorbidities. Adults with cirrhosis within the Veterans Health Administration were used for model training and internal validation, and external validation used the OneFlorida Clinical Research Consortium. We used four model-building approaches including variables predictive of cirrhosis-related mortality, focused on discrimination at key time points (1, 3, 5, and 10 years). Among 30,263 patients with cirrhosis ≤75 years old without major life-limiting comorbidities and complete laboratory data during the baseline period, the boosted survival tree models had the highest discrimination, with 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year survival rates of 0.77, 0.81, 0.84, and 0.88, respectively. The 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year discrimination was nearly identical in external validation. Secondary analyses with imputation of missing data and subgroups by etiology of liver disease had similar results to the primary model. CONCLUSIONS We developed and validated (internally and externally) a risk score to predict longer-term survival of patients with cirrhosis. This score would transform management of patients with cirrhosis in terms of referral to specialty care and treatment decision-making for non-liver-related care.
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Affiliation(s)
- David Goldberg
- Division of Digestive Health and Liver Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, FL
- Department of Public Health Sciences, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, FL
| | - Alejandro Mantero
- Department of Public Health Sciences, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, FL
| | - David Kaplan
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA
- Corporal Michael J. Crescenz VA Medical Center, Philadelphia, PA
| | - Cindy Delgado
- Division of Digestive Health and Liver Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, FL
| | - Binu John
- Division of Digestive Health and Liver Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, FL
- Bruce Carter VA Medica Center, Miami, FL
| | - Nadine Nuchovich
- Division of Digestive Health and Liver Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, FL
| | - Ezekiel Emanuel
- Department of Medical Ethics and Health Policy, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA
| | - Peter P. Reese
- Renal-Electrolye and Hypertension Division, Department of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA
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13
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Ge J, Kim WR, Lai JC, Kwong AJ. "Beyond MELD" - Emerging strategies and technologies for improving mortality prediction, organ allocation and outcomes in liver transplantation. J Hepatol 2022; 76:1318-1329. [PMID: 35589253 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhep.2022.03.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2021] [Revised: 02/24/2022] [Accepted: 03/04/2022] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
In this review article, we discuss the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and its dual purpose in general and transplant hepatology. As the landscape of liver disease and transplantation has evolved considerably since the advent of the MELD score, we summarise emerging concepts, methodologies, and technologies that may improve mortality prognostication in the future. Finally, we explore how these novel concepts and technologies may be incorporated into clinical practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jin Ge
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, University of California - San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - W Ray Kim
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA.
| | - Jennifer C Lai
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, University of California - San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Allison J Kwong
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
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14
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Prognostic value of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio in cirrhosis patients undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt. Eur J Gastroenterol Hepatol 2022; 34:435-442. [PMID: 34750323 DOI: 10.1097/meg.0000000000002295] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/10/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte-ratio (NLR) is used as an inflammatory index and has proven to be an accurate prognostic indicator for decompensated cirrhotics; however, its role in patients undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) has not been evaluated. We examined whether NLR is associated with mortality in decompensated cirrhosis patients undergoing TIPS. METHODS We performed a retrospective review of 268 decompensated cirrhotics who underwent TIPS from January 2011 to December 2015 at an academic medical center. NLR, patient demographics, manifestations of cirrhosis, TIPS indications and mortality were recorded. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses for prognostic factors associated with 30-day and 90-day post TIPS mortality were performed. RESULTS A total of 129 (48%) patients received TIPS for refractory ascites with 79 (29%) for variceal bleeding, 14 (5%) for hepatic hydrothorax, and 46 (17%) for other indications. Cirrhosis etiology included hepatitis C (36%), alcohol (28%), nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (20%), or other (15%). Median NLR was 4.42 (IQR 2.75-7.19). Univariate and multivariate analysis showed NLR as an independent predictive factor of 30-day and 90-day mortality. Furthermore, in patients with a Model of End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) ≤ 15, NLR is superior to MELD/MELD-Na score in predicting 30-day and 90-day mortality. In patients with MELD > 15, MELD/MELD-Na score is superior to NLR. CONCLUSION Our data indicate that elevated NLR independently predicts 30-day and 90-day mortality. In patients with a MELD ≤ 15, NLR is a better prognostic factor than MELD or MELD-Na in predicting short-term mortality.
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15
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Black M, Gupta A, Asrani SK, Ma TW, Testa G, Wall A. Living donor liver transplantation versus donation after brain death and donation after circulatory death liver transplantation in the US. Proc AMIA Symp 2022; 35:273-277. [DOI: 10.1080/08998280.2022.2034202] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/18/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Matthew Black
- Annette C. and Harold C. Simmons Transplant Institute, Baylor University Medical Center, Dallas, Texas
| | - Amar Gupta
- Annette C. and Harold C. Simmons Transplant Institute, Baylor University Medical Center, Dallas, Texas
| | - Sumeet K. Asrani
- Annette C. and Harold C. Simmons Transplant Institute, Baylor University Medical Center, Dallas, Texas
| | - Tsung-Wei Ma
- Annette C. and Harold C. Simmons Transplant Institute, Baylor University Medical Center, Dallas, Texas
| | - Giuliano Testa
- Annette C. and Harold C. Simmons Transplant Institute, Baylor University Medical Center, Dallas, Texas
| | - Anji Wall
- Annette C. and Harold C. Simmons Transplant Institute, Baylor University Medical Center, Dallas, Texas
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16
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Zhou K, Dodge JL, Xu E, Emamaullee J, Kahn JA. Excess liver transplant waitlist mortality for patients with primary biliary cholangitis under MELD-Na allocation. Clin Transplant 2021; 36:e14527. [PMID: 34731515 DOI: 10.1111/ctr.14527] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/31/2021] [Revised: 09/30/2021] [Accepted: 10/22/2021] [Indexed: 01/13/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Historically, patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) experience waitlist mortality and low rates of liver transplant (LT). Herein, the impact of MELD-Na based allocation on PBC waitlist mortality was examined. METHODS Adult patients with PBC were compared to those with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) or non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) listed for LT from 2013 to 2019 in OPTN. Competing risk regression evaluated waitlist mortality in the MELD and MELD-Na eras using propensity score weights. RESULTS Overall, 1508 patients with PBC, 13581 with ALD, and 10455 with NASH were examined. In the MELD-Na era, 24-month cumulative incidence of waitlist mortality for PBC was 23.0% (95%CI 19.7-26.5%), ALD 13.9% (95%CI 13.1-14.8%), and NASH 20.0% (95%CI 18.9-21.2%). Using propensity score weights, adjusted risk of waitlist mortality was higher for PBC versus ALD (HR = 1.45, 95%CI 1.22-1.71) and NASH (HR = 1.32, 95%CI 1.14-1.55). Furthermore, among PBC, waitlist mortality risk per five-point elevation in MELD-Na (HR = 1.22, 95%CI 1.11-1.35) and Karnofsky score ≤30% (HR = 2.02, 95%CI 1.39-2.92) was significantly higher than among ALD (HR = 1.08, 95%CI 1.04-1.13; HR = 1.28, 95%CI 1.10-1.49) and NASH (HR = 1.05, 95%CI 1.00-1.09; HR = 1.16, 95%CI .99-1.37; all P-interactions < .05). CONCLUSIONS The MELD-Na score continues to underestimate risk of waitlist death for patients with PBC relative to ALD and NASH and highlights need for additional score modifications or exceptions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kali Zhou
- Division of Gastrointestinal and Liver Diseases, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Jennifer L Dodge
- Division of Gastrointestinal and Liver Diseases, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, USA.,Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Edison Xu
- Department of Medicine, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Juliet Emamaullee
- Department of Surgery, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Jeffrey A Kahn
- Division of Gastrointestinal and Liver Diseases, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, USA
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17
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Starlinger P, Ahn JC, Mullan A, Gyoeri GP, Pereyra D, Alva‐Ruiz R, Hackl H, Reiberger T, Trauner M, Santol J, Simbrunner B, Mandorfer M, Berlakovich G, Kamath PS, Heimbach J. The Addition of C-Reactive Protein and von Willebrand Factor to Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium Improves Prediction of Waitlist Mortality. Hepatology 2021; 74:1533-1545. [PMID: 33786862 PMCID: PMC8518408 DOI: 10.1002/hep.31838] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/06/2020] [Revised: 02/09/2021] [Accepted: 03/14/2021] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS Patients with cirrhosis on the liver transplant (LT) waiting list may die or be removed because of complications of portal hypertension (PH) or infections. von Willebrand factor antigen (vWF-Ag) and C-reactive protein (CRP) are simple, broadly available markers of these processes. APPROACH AND RESULTS We determined whether addition of vWF-Ag and CRP to the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium (MELD-Na) score improves risk stratification of patients awaiting LT. CRP and vWF-Ag at LT listing were assessed in two independent cohorts (Medical University of Vienna [exploration cohort] and Mayo Clinic Rochester [validation cohort]). Clinical characteristics, MELD-Na, and mortality on the waiting list were recorded. Prediction of 3-month waiting list mortality was assessed by receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC-AUC). In order to explore potential mechanisms underlying the prognostic utility of vWF-Ag and CRP in this setting, we evaluated their association with PH, bacterial translocation, systemic inflammation, and circulatory dysfunction. In the exploration cohort (n = 269) vWF-Ag and CRP both improved the predictive value of MELD-Na for 3-month waitlist mortality and showed the highest predictive value when combined (AUC: MELD-Na, 0.764; MELD-Na + CRP, 0.790; MELD-Na + vWF, 0.803; MELD-Na + CRP + vWF-Ag, 0.824). Results were confirmed in an independent validation cohort (n = 129; AUC: MELD-Na, 0.677; MELD-Na + CRP + vWF-Ag, 0.882). vWF-Ag was independently associated with PH and inflammatory biomarkers, whereas CRP closely, and MELD independently, correlated with biomarkers of bacterial translocation/inflammation. CONCLUSIONS The addition of vWF-Ag and CRP-reflecting central pathophysiological mechanisms of PH, bacterial translocation, and inflammation, that are all drivers of mortality on the waiting list for LT-to the MELD-Na score improves prediction of waitlist mortality. Using the vWFAg-CRP-MELD-Na model for prioritizing organ allocation may improve prediction of waitlist mortality and decrease waitlist mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Patrick Starlinger
- Department of SurgeryDivision of Hepatobiliary and Pancreas SurgeryMayo ClinicRochesterMN,Department of SurgeryDivision of General SurgeryMedical University of ViennaGeneral Hospital ViennaViennaAustria
| | - Joseph C. Ahn
- Division of Gastroenterology and HepatologyMayo ClinicRochesterMN
| | - Aidan Mullan
- Department of Health Sciences ResearchMayo ClinicRochesterMN
| | - Georg P. Gyoeri
- Department of SurgeryDivision of General SurgeryMedical University of ViennaGeneral Hospital ViennaViennaAustria,Division of TransplantationDepartment of SurgeryMedical University of ViennaGeneral Hospital ViennaViennaAustria
| | - David Pereyra
- Department of SurgeryDivision of General SurgeryMedical University of ViennaGeneral Hospital ViennaViennaAustria
| | - Roberto Alva‐Ruiz
- Department of SurgeryDivision of Hepatobiliary and Pancreas SurgeryMayo ClinicRochesterMN
| | - Hubert Hackl
- Institute of BioinformaticsBiocenterMedical University of InnsbruckInnsbruckAustria
| | - Thomas Reiberger
- Division of Gastroenterology and HepatologyDepartment of Medicine IIIMedical University of ViennaViennaAustria,Vienna Hepatic Hemodynamic LabMedical University of ViennaViennaAustria,Christian Doppler Laboratory for Portal Hypertension and Liver FibrosisMedical University of ViennaViennaAustria
| | - Michael Trauner
- Division of Gastroenterology and HepatologyDepartment of Medicine IIIMedical University of ViennaViennaAustria
| | - Jonas Santol
- Department of SurgeryDivision of General SurgeryMedical University of ViennaGeneral Hospital ViennaViennaAustria
| | - Benedikt Simbrunner
- Division of Gastroenterology and HepatologyDepartment of Medicine IIIMedical University of ViennaViennaAustria,Vienna Hepatic Hemodynamic LabMedical University of ViennaViennaAustria,Christian Doppler Laboratory for Portal Hypertension and Liver FibrosisMedical University of ViennaViennaAustria
| | - Mattias Mandorfer
- Division of Gastroenterology and HepatologyDepartment of Medicine IIIMedical University of ViennaViennaAustria,Vienna Hepatic Hemodynamic LabMedical University of ViennaViennaAustria,Christian Doppler Laboratory for Portal Hypertension and Liver FibrosisMedical University of ViennaViennaAustria
| | - Gabriela Berlakovich
- Division of TransplantationDepartment of SurgeryMedical University of ViennaGeneral Hospital ViennaViennaAustria
| | | | - Julie Heimbach
- Department of SurgeryDivision of Transplantation SurgeryMayo ClinicRochesterMN
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18
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Mazumder NR, Simpson D, Atiemo K, Jackson K, Zhao L, Daud A, Kho A, Gabra LG, Caicedo JC, Levitsky J, Ladner DP. Black Patients With Cirrhosis Have Higher Mortality and Lower Transplant Rates: Results From a Metropolitan Cohort Study. Hepatology 2021; 74:926-936. [PMID: 34128254 DOI: 10.1002/hep.31742] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2020] [Revised: 11/30/2020] [Accepted: 01/19/2021] [Indexed: 12/27/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS Estimates of racial disparity in cirrhosis have been limited by lack of large-scale, longitudinal data, which track patients from diagnosis to death and/or transplant. APPROACH AND RESULTS We analyzed a large, metropolitan, population-based electronic health record data set from seven large health systems linked to the state death registry and the national transplant database. Multivariate competing risk analyses, adjusted for sex, age, insurance status, Elixhauser score, etiology of cirrhosis, HCC, portal hypertensive complication, and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium (MELD-Na), examined the relationship between race, transplant, and cause of death as defined by blinded death certificate review. During the study period, 11,277 patients met inclusion criteria, of whom 2,498 (22.2%) identified as Black. Compared to White patients, Black patients had similar age, sex, MELD-Na, and proportion of alcohol-associated liver disease, but higher comorbidity burden, lower rates of private insurance, and lower rates of portal hypertensive complications. Compared to White patients, Black patients had the highest rate all-cause mortality and non-liver-related death and were less likely to be listed or transplanted (P < 0.001 for all). In multivariate competing risk analysis, Black patients had a 26% increased hazard of liver-related death (subdistribution HR, 1.26; 95% CI, [1.15-1.38]; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Black patients with cirrhosis have discordant outcomes. Further research is needed to determine how to address these real disparities in the field of hepatology.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nikhilesh R Mazumder
- Department of Gastroenterology and HepatologyNorthwestern University Feinberg School of MedicineChicagoIL.,Comprehensive Transplant CenterNorthwestern University Feinberg School of MedicineNorthwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC)ChicagoIL
| | - Dinee Simpson
- Comprehensive Transplant CenterNorthwestern University Feinberg School of MedicineNorthwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC)ChicagoIL.,Division of TransplantDepartment of SurgeryNorthwestern MedicineChicagoIL
| | - Kofi Atiemo
- Comprehensive Transplant CenterNorthwestern University Feinberg School of MedicineNorthwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC)ChicagoIL.,Tulane Abdominal Transplant InstituteDepartment of SurgeryTulane University School of MedicineNew OrleansLA
| | - Kathryn Jackson
- Institute for Public Health and Medicine-Center for Health Information PartnershipsNorthwestern University, Feinberg School of MedicineChicagoIL
| | - Lihui Zhao
- Comprehensive Transplant CenterNorthwestern University Feinberg School of MedicineNorthwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC)ChicagoIL.,Department of Preventative MedicineNorthwestern University Feinberg School of MedicineChicagoIL
| | - Amna Daud
- Comprehensive Transplant CenterNorthwestern University Feinberg School of MedicineNorthwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC)ChicagoIL
| | - Abel Kho
- Comprehensive Transplant CenterNorthwestern University Feinberg School of MedicineNorthwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC)ChicagoIL.,Institute for Public Health and Medicine-Center for Health Information PartnershipsNorthwestern University, Feinberg School of MedicineChicagoIL
| | - Lauren G Gabra
- Feinberg School of MedicineNorthwestern University Feinberg School of MedicineChicagoIL
| | - Juan C Caicedo
- Comprehensive Transplant CenterNorthwestern University Feinberg School of MedicineNorthwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC)ChicagoIL.,Division of TransplantDepartment of SurgeryNorthwestern MedicineChicagoIL
| | - Josh Levitsky
- Department of Gastroenterology and HepatologyNorthwestern University Feinberg School of MedicineChicagoIL.,Comprehensive Transplant CenterNorthwestern University Feinberg School of MedicineNorthwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC)ChicagoIL
| | - Daniela P Ladner
- Comprehensive Transplant CenterNorthwestern University Feinberg School of MedicineNorthwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC)ChicagoIL.,Division of TransplantDepartment of SurgeryNorthwestern MedicineChicagoIL
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19
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Kulkarni AV, Kumar P, Sharma M, Menon B, Reddy DN, Rao PN. Letter to the Editor: Living Donor Liver Transplantation or Deceased Donor Liver Transplantation in High Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score-Which Is Better? Hepatology 2021; 73:2619-2620. [PMID: 33230855 DOI: 10.1002/hep.31657] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Anand V Kulkarni
- Department of Hepatology, Asian Institute of Gastroenterology, Hyderabad, India
| | - Pramod Kumar
- Department of Hepatology, Asian Institute of Gastroenterology, Hyderabad, India
| | - Mithun Sharma
- Department of Hepatology, Asian Institute of Gastroenterology, Hyderabad, India
| | - Balachandran Menon
- Department of Liver Transplantation and Hepatobiliary Surgery, Asian Institute of Gastroenterology, Hyderabad, India
| | - D Nageshwar Reddy
- Department of Gastroenterology, Asian Institute of Gastroenterology, Hyderabad, India
| | - P Nagaraja Rao
- Department of Hepatology, Asian Institute of Gastroenterology, Hyderabad, India
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20
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Traub J, Reiss L, Aliwa B, Stadlbauer V. Malnutrition in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis. Nutrients 2021; 13:540. [PMID: 33562292 PMCID: PMC7915767 DOI: 10.3390/nu13020540] [Citation(s) in RCA: 61] [Impact Index Per Article: 20.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/04/2020] [Revised: 02/04/2021] [Accepted: 02/04/2021] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Liver cirrhosis is an increasing public health threat worldwide. Malnutrition is a serious complication of cirrhosis and is associated with worse outcomes. With this review, we aim to describe the prevalence of malnutrition, pathophysiological mechanisms, diagnostic tools and therapeutic targets to treat malnutrition. Malnutrition is frequently underdiagnosed and occurs-depending on the screening methods used and patient populations studied-in 5-92% of patients. Decreased energy and protein intake, inflammation, malabsorption, altered nutrient metabolism, hypermetabolism, hormonal disturbances and gut microbiome dysbiosis can contribute to malnutrition. The stepwise diagnostic approach includes a rapid prescreen, the use of a specific screening tool, such as the Royal Free Hospital Nutritional Prioritizing Tool and a nutritional assessment by dieticians. General dietary measures-especially the timing of meals-oral nutritional supplements, micronutrient supplementation and the role of amino acids are discussed. In summary malnutrition in cirrhosis is common and needs more attention by health care professionals involved in the care of patients with cirrhosis. Screening and assessment for malnutrition should be carried out regularly in cirrhotic patients, ideally by a multidisciplinary team. Further research is needed to better clarify pathogenic mechanisms such as the role of the gut-liver-axis and to develop targeted therapeutic strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Julia Traub
- Department of Clinical Medical Nutrition, University Hospital Graz, 8036 Graz, Austria; (J.T.); (L.R.)
| | - Lisa Reiss
- Department of Clinical Medical Nutrition, University Hospital Graz, 8036 Graz, Austria; (J.T.); (L.R.)
| | - Benard Aliwa
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Medical University of Graz, 8036 Graz, Austria;
| | - Vanessa Stadlbauer
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Medical University of Graz, 8036 Graz, Austria;
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21
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Lee S, Doktorchik C, Martin EA, D'Souza AG, Eastwood C, Shaheen AA, Naugler C, Lee J, Quan H. Electronic Medical Record-Based Case Phenotyping for the Charlson Conditions: Scoping Review. JMIR Med Inform 2021; 9:e23934. [PMID: 33522976 PMCID: PMC7884219 DOI: 10.2196/23934] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/28/2020] [Revised: 11/20/2020] [Accepted: 12/05/2020] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Electronic medical records (EMRs) contain large amounts of rich clinical information. Developing EMR-based case definitions, also known as EMR phenotyping, is an active area of research that has implications for epidemiology, clinical care, and health services research. Objective This review aims to describe and assess the present landscape of EMR-based case phenotyping for the Charlson conditions. Methods A scoping review of EMR-based algorithms for defining the Charlson comorbidity index conditions was completed. This study covered articles published between January 2000 and April 2020, both inclusive. Embase (Excerpta Medica database) and MEDLINE (Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online) were searched using keywords developed in the following 3 domains: terms related to EMR, terms related to case finding, and disease-specific terms. The manuscript follows the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA) guidelines. Results A total of 274 articles representing 299 algorithms were assessed and summarized. Most studies were undertaken in the United States (181/299, 60.5%), followed by the United Kingdom (42/299, 14.0%) and Canada (15/299, 5.0%). These algorithms were mostly developed either in primary care (103/299, 34.4%) or inpatient (168/299, 56.2%) settings. Diabetes, congestive heart failure, myocardial infarction, and rheumatology had the highest number of developed algorithms. Data-driven and clinical rule–based approaches have been identified. EMR-based phenotype and algorithm development reflect the data access allowed by respective health systems, and algorithms vary in their performance. Conclusions Recognizing similarities and differences in health systems, data collection strategies, extraction, data release protocols, and existing clinical pathways is critical to algorithm development strategies. Several strategies to assist with phenotype-based case definitions have been proposed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Seungwon Lee
- Centre for Health Informatics, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada.,Department of Community Health Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada.,Alberta Health Services, Calgary, AB, Canada.,Data Intelligence for Health Lab, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
| | - Chelsea Doktorchik
- Centre for Health Informatics, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada.,Department of Community Health Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
| | - Elliot Asher Martin
- Centre for Health Informatics, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada.,Alberta Health Services, Calgary, AB, Canada
| | - Adam Giles D'Souza
- Centre for Health Informatics, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada.,Alberta Health Services, Calgary, AB, Canada
| | - Cathy Eastwood
- Centre for Health Informatics, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada.,Department of Community Health Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
| | - Abdel Aziz Shaheen
- Centre for Health Informatics, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada.,Department of Community Health Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada.,Department of Medicine, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
| | - Christopher Naugler
- Department of Community Health Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada.,Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
| | - Joon Lee
- Centre for Health Informatics, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada.,Department of Community Health Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada.,Data Intelligence for Health Lab, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada.,Department of Cardiac Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
| | - Hude Quan
- Centre for Health Informatics, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada.,Department of Community Health Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
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22
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Canterberry M, Kaul AF, Goel S, Lin PID, Block JP, Nair VP, Ma Q, Carton TW. The Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Network Antibiotics and Childhood Growth Study: Implementing Patient Data Linkage. Popul Health Manag 2020; 23:438-444. [PMID: 31855123 PMCID: PMC7397429 DOI: 10.1089/pop.2019.0089] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
PCORnet, the Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Network, is comprised of health systems and health plans that transform electronic health records (EHRs) and claims data to a common data model (CDM) to facilitate real-world clinical research. Because patients receive health care in multiple care delivery settings, linking health records across systems and health plan claims would provide a more comprehensive and accurate picture of health care for patients. The current study expanded on a PCORnet Antibiotics and Childhood Growth (ABX) study to (1) identify and implement a privacy-preserving patient linkage solution among a clinical data research network and a health plan network within the ABX Study, and (2) assess overlap in prescribed and dispensed antibiotics and additional data gained from claims among the linked patients. This manuscript describes the linkage process and resulting overlap analysis. The authors identified 549 patients from the EHR record study cohort who had claims records with the health plan. Sixty percent (n = 329) of patients had consistent antibiotic exposure data across the 2 sources, indicating antibiotic exposure (44.3%) or nonexposure (15.7%). Among total antibiotic prescribing records, 43.1% had a matched claims record for dispensing within 60 days. Among antibiotic dispense records 26.5% were not associated with a prescribing record in the linked health systems. These findings showcase the feasibility of linking health plan claims data to PCORnet CDM in a privacy-preserving manner while also demonstrating continued gaps in data that may occur. The study highlights the importance of combining multiple health data sources for comprehensive clinical research.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Alan F. Kaul
- Medical Outcomes Management, Inc., Sharon, Massachusetts
| | | | - Pi-I Debby Lin
- Division of Chronic Disease Research Across the Lifecourse, Department of Population Medicine, Harvard Medical School and Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Jason P. Block
- Division of Chronic Disease Research Across the Lifecourse, Department of Population Medicine, Harvard Medical School and Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute, Boston, Massachusetts
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23
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Mazumder NR, Celaj S, Atiemo K, Daud A, Jackson KL, Kho A, Levitsky J, Ladner DP. Liver-related mortality is similar among men and women with cirrhosis. J Hepatol 2020; 73:1072-1081. [PMID: 32344052 PMCID: PMC7572539 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhep.2020.04.022] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/29/2019] [Revised: 04/08/2020] [Accepted: 04/13/2020] [Indexed: 12/19/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS Sex-based differences are known to significantly contribute to outcomes in patients with chronic liver diseases; however, the role of patient sex in cirrhosis is unclear. We aimed to study the relationship between patient sex and cirrhosis. METHODS We analyzed a cohort of 20,045 patients with cirrhosis using a Chicago-wide electronic health record database that was linked with the United Network for Organ Sharing and cause of death data from the state death registry. Adjusted Cox survival analyses and competing risk analyses were performed to obtain subdistribution hazard ratios (HRs) for liver-related cause of death. RESULTS Female and male patients had similar age, racial distribution, insurance status, and comorbidity status by Elixhauser score. Females had higher rates of cholestatic liver disease (17.1% vs. 6.2%, p <0.001) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (29.8% vs. 21.2%, p <0.001) than males. They were less likely to have portal hypertensive complications and had lower peak MELD-Na scores during follow-up. Female sex was associated with a decreased hazard of all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 0.85; 95% CI 0.80-0.90). This effect was attenuated when liver-related mortality was examined (subdistribution HR 0.93; 95% CI 0.87-1.00). No significant difference was noted for women who were 'ever-listed' in competing risk analyses for either all-cause mortality (subdistribution HR 1.09; 95% CI 0.88-1.35) or liver-related death (subdistribution HR 1.12; 95% CI 0.87-1.43), despite lower rates of listing (7.5% vs. 9.8%; p <0.001) and transplant (3.5% vs. 5.2%; p <0.001). CONCLUSIONS In this longitudinal study of patients with cirrhosis, female sex was associated with a survival advantage likely driven by lower rates of non-liver-related death. Women were not at an increased risk of liver-related death despite lower rates of listing and transplantation. LAY SUMMARY Patient sex is an important contributor in many chronic diseases, including cirrhosis. Prior studies have suggested that female sex is associated with worse outcomes. We analyzed a cohort of 20,045 patients with cirrhosis using a Chicago-wide electronic health record database. Using multivariate competing risk analyses, we found that female sex in cirrhosis is actually associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality and has no association with liver-related mortality. Our findings are novel because we show that women with cirrhosis have a similar risk of liver-related death as their male counterparts, despite lower rates of listing and transplantation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nikhilesh R Mazumder
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL
| | - Stela Celaj
- Department of Internal Medicine, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL
| | - Kofi Atiemo
- Northwestern University Transplant Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Comprehensive Transplant Center (CTC), Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL
| | - Amna Daud
- Northwestern University Transplant Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Comprehensive Transplant Center (CTC), Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL
| | - Kathryn L Jackson
- Center for Health Information Partnerships, Institute for Public Health and Medicine, Chicago, IL
| | - Abel Kho
- Center for Health Information Partnerships, Institute for Public Health and Medicine, Chicago, IL
| | - Josh Levitsky
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL; Northwestern University Transplant Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Comprehensive Transplant Center (CTC), Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL
| | - Daniela P Ladner
- Northwestern University Transplant Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Comprehensive Transplant Center (CTC), Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL; Center for Healthcare Studies, Institute for Public Health and Medicine, Chicago, IL.
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24
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Iacob S, Ghioca M, Csiki IE, Tomescu D, Droc G, Hrehoret D, Brasoveanu V, Pietrareanu C, Iacob R, Gheorghe C, Popescu I, Gheorghe L. Pre and post-liver transplant outcome of cirrhotic patients with acute on chronic liver failure. Medicine (Baltimore) 2020; 99:e22419. [PMID: 33126299 PMCID: PMC7598874 DOI: 10.1097/md.0000000000022419] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a dynamic syndrome, but frequently associated with a high 1 month mortality rate. This is the first study applying the new European Association for the Study of the Liver- chronic liver failure consortium criteria to explore mortality on the waiting list (WL) and early after liver transplantation (LT) in a cohort of Romanian cirrhotic patients that improved or recovered after an episode of ACLF.To assess frequency and waitlist mortality for different grades of ACLF.An observational study was conducted; 257 patients with liver cirrhosis included on the WL between 2015 and 2017 were analyzed. The cumulative incidence of waitlist mortality or removal was calculated for combination of competing events using multivariable competing risks regression.ACLF-1 occurred in 12.07%, ACLF-2 in 7.39% and ACLF-3 in 8.56% of patients. Median Model for End Stage Liver Diseases (MELD) score at the moment of ACLF was 29. The main event while on the WL was death, followed by ACLF; patients with ACLF-3 had a significantly greater subhazard ratio for mortality of 2.25 (1.55-3.26) compared to patients with ACLF-1 or 2. LT proved to be associated with a significantly lower risk of death on the WL at 6 months after inclusion. One and 12 months post-transplant survival of patients with or without ACLF was similar (P = .77).Occurrence of an ACLF episode while on the WL is associated with a significantly high mortality rate, as well as MELD score at inclusion on the WL, renal and liver failure, presence of hepatic encephalopathy. Overall patient short and long term survival after LT is similar to non-ACLF patients in good selected cases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Speranta Iacob
- Center for Digestive Diseases and Liver Transplantation, Fundeni Clinical Institute
- “Carol Davila” University of Medicine and Pharmacy
| | - Mihaela Ghioca
- Center for Digestive Diseases and Liver Transplantation, Fundeni Clinical Institute
- “Carol Davila” University of Medicine and Pharmacy
| | | | - Dana Tomescu
- “Carol Davila” University of Medicine and Pharmacy
- Department of Anaesthesia and Critical Care
| | - Gabriela Droc
- “Carol Davila” University of Medicine and Pharmacy
- Department of Anaesthesia and Critical Care
| | - Doina Hrehoret
- Dan Setlacec Center of General Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Fundeni Clinical Institute, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Vlad Brasoveanu
- Dan Setlacec Center of General Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Fundeni Clinical Institute, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Corina Pietrareanu
- Center for Digestive Diseases and Liver Transplantation, Fundeni Clinical Institute
| | - Razvan Iacob
- Center for Digestive Diseases and Liver Transplantation, Fundeni Clinical Institute
- “Carol Davila” University of Medicine and Pharmacy
| | - Cristian Gheorghe
- Center for Digestive Diseases and Liver Transplantation, Fundeni Clinical Institute
- “Carol Davila” University of Medicine and Pharmacy
| | - Irinel Popescu
- Dan Setlacec Center of General Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Fundeni Clinical Institute, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Liana Gheorghe
- Center for Digestive Diseases and Liver Transplantation, Fundeni Clinical Institute
- “Carol Davila” University of Medicine and Pharmacy
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25
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Application of Hepatic Venous Pressure Gradient to Predict Prognosis in Cirrhotic Patients with a Low Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score. Diagnostics (Basel) 2020; 10:diagnostics10100805. [PMID: 33050413 PMCID: PMC7599657 DOI: 10.3390/diagnostics10100805] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2020] [Revised: 09/30/2020] [Accepted: 10/08/2020] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Background/aim: We aimed to derive a model representing the dynamic status of cirrhosis and to discriminate patients with poor prognosis even if the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score is low. Methods: This study retrospectively enrolled 700 cirrhotic patients with a MELD score of less than 20 who underwent hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) measurement. A model named H6C score (= HVPG + 6 × CTP score) to predict overall survival was derived and internal and external validations were conducted with the derivation and validation cohorts. Results: The H6C score using the HVPG was developed based on a multivariate Cox regression analysis. The H6C score showed a great predictive power for overall survival with a time-dependent AUC of 0.733, which was superior to that of a MELD of 0.602. In patients with viral etiology, the performance of the H6C score was much improved with a time-dependent AUC of 0.850 and was consistently superior to that of the MELD (0.748). Patients with an H6C score below 45 demonstrated an excellent overall survival with a 5-year survival rate of 91.5%. Whereas, patients with an H6C score above 64 showed a dismal prognosis with a 5-year survival rate of 51.1%. The performance of the H6C score was further verified to be excellent in the validation cohort. Conclusion: This new model using the HVPG provides an excellent predictive power in cirrhotic patients, especially with viral etiology. In patients with H6C above 64, it would be wise to consider early liver transplantation to positively impact long-term survival, even when the MELD score is low.
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26
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Abstract
Risk scoring for patients with cirrhosis has evolved greatly over the past several decades. However, patients with low Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium scores still suffer from liver-related morbidity and mortality. Unfortunately, it is not clear which of these low Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium score patients would benefit from earlier consideration of liver transplantation. This article reviews the literature of risk prediction in patients with cirrhosis, identifies which patients may benefit from earlier interventions, such as transplantation, and proposes directions for future research.
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Benz F, Mohr R, Tacke F, Roderburg C. Pulmonary Complications in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis. J Transl Int Med 2020; 8:150-158. [PMID: 33062591 PMCID: PMC7534492 DOI: 10.2478/jtim-2020-0024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/16/2023] Open
Abstract
Patients with advanced chronic liver diseases, particularly with decompensated liver cirrhosis, can develop specific pulmonary complications independently of any pre-existing lung disease. Especially when dyspnea occurs in combination with liver cirrhosis, patients should be evaluated for hepato-pulmonary syndrome (HPS), porto-pulmonary hypertension (PPHT), hepatic hydrothorax and spontaneous bacterial empyema, which represent the clinically most relevant pulmonary complications of liver cirrhosis. Importantly, the pathophysiology, clinical features, diagnosis and the corresponding therapeutic options differ between these entities, highlighting the role of specific diagnostics in patients with liver cirrhosis who present with dyspnea. Liver transplantation may offer a curative therapy, including selected cases of HPS and PPHT. In this review article, we summarize the pathogenesis, clinical features, diagnostic algorithms and treatment options of the 4 specific pulmonary complications in patients with liver cirrhosis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fabian Benz
- Charité University Medicine Berlin, Department of Hepatology & Gastroenterology, Campus Virchow Klinikum and Campus Charité Mitte, Berlin, Germany
| | - Raphael Mohr
- Charité University Medicine Berlin, Department of Hepatology & Gastroenterology, Campus Virchow Klinikum and Campus Charité Mitte, Berlin, Germany
| | - Frank Tacke
- Charité University Medicine Berlin, Department of Hepatology & Gastroenterology, Campus Virchow Klinikum and Campus Charité Mitte, Berlin, Germany
| | - Christoph Roderburg
- Charité University Medicine Berlin, Department of Hepatology & Gastroenterology, Campus Virchow Klinikum and Campus Charité Mitte, Berlin, Germany
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28
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Jepsen P, Watson H, Macdonald S, Vilstrup H, Jalan R. MELD remains the best predictor of mortality in outpatients with cirrhosis and severe ascites. Aliment Pharmacol Ther 2020; 52:492-499. [PMID: 32573818 DOI: 10.1111/apt.15882] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/24/2020] [Revised: 04/16/2020] [Accepted: 05/24/2020] [Indexed: 01/03/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Model for Endstage Liver Disease (MELD) score may put patients with severe ascites at a disadvantage because they often have a poor quality of life and high mortality despite a favourable MELD score. AIM To develop a model that is better than the MELD score at predicting 1-year mortality among patients with cirrhosis, severe ascites and MELD ≤18. METHODS We used data from a randomised trial (SPARe-1) of patients with cirrhosis and severe ascites to develop a model to predict 1-year mortality. We used stepwise backward elimination and Cox regression to identify the strongest predictors. Performance was assessed with the C index and the Brier score. We examined performance in an external cohort of trial participants with cirrhosis and severe ascites (SPARe-2 participants). RESULTS We included 308 patients with a 1-year mortality of 20.4%. The final prediction model (Severe Ascites Mortality score, "SAM score") included four variables: serum bilirubin, serum sodium, history of SBP (yes or no) and diabetes (yes or no). No indicators of quality of life were included. After correction for optimism bias, the SAM and MELD scores had nearly identical predictive ability. The external validation cohort included 149 patients whose 1-year mortality was 22.4%. The MELD score performed marginally better in this cohort, partly because the effects of SBP and diabetes on mortality were much smaller in this cohort. CONCLUSION We did not succeed in developing a prediction model that was superior to the MELD score among patients with cirrhosis and severe ascites.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter Jepsen
- Department of Hepatology and Gastroenterology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark.,Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark
| | - Hugh Watson
- Department of Hepatology and Gastroenterology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark.,Infectious Diseases Unit, Sanofi-Aventis R&D, Marcy l'Etoile, France
| | - Stewart Macdonald
- Liver Failure Group, Institute for Liver and Digestive Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Hendrik Vilstrup
- Department of Hepatology and Gastroenterology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark
| | - Rajiv Jalan
- Liver Failure Group, Institute for Liver and Digestive Health, University College London, London, UK
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Györi GP, Pereyra D, Rumpf B, Hackl H, Köditz C, Ortmayr G, Reiberger T, Trauner M, Berlakovich GA, Starlinger P. The von Willebrand Factor Facilitates Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Independent Risk Stratification on the Waiting List for Liver Transplantation. Hepatology 2020; 72:584-594. [PMID: 31773739 PMCID: PMC7497135 DOI: 10.1002/hep.31047] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2019] [Accepted: 11/07/2019] [Indexed: 12/18/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) is used for clinical decision-making and organ allocation for orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) and was previously upgraded through inclusion of serum sodium (Na) concentrations (MELD-Na). However, MELD-Na may underestimate complications arising from portal hypertension or infection. The von Willebrand factor (vWF) antigen (vWF-Ag) correlates with portal pressure and seems capable of predicting complications in patients with cirrhosis. Accordingly, this study aimed to evaluate vWF-Ag as an adjunct surrogate marker for risk stratification on the waiting list for OLT. APPROACH AND RESULTS Hence, WF-Ag at time of listing was assessed in patients listed for OLT. Clinical characteristics, MELD-Na, and mortality on the waiting list were recorded. Prediction of 3-month waiting-list survival was assessed by receiver operating characteristics and net reclassification improvement. Interestingly, patients dying within 3 months on the waiting list displayed elevated levels of vWF-Ag (P < 0.001). MELD-Na and vWF-Ag were comparable and independent in their predictive potential for 3-month mortality on the waiting list (area under the curve [AUC], vWF-Ag = 0.739; MELD-Na = 0.764). Importantly, a vWF-Ag cutoff at 413% identified patients at risk for death within 3 months of listing with a higher odds ratio (OR) than the previously published cutoff at a MELD-Na of 20 points (vWF-Ag, OR = 10.873, 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.160, 36.084; MELD-Na, OR = 7.594, 95% CI, 2.578, 22.372; P < 0.001, respectively). Ultimately, inclusion of vWF-Ag into the MELD-Na equation significantly improved prediction of 3-month waiting-list mortality (AUC, MELD-Na-vWF = 0.804). CONCLUSIONS A single measurement of vWF-Ag at listing for OLT predicts early mortality. Combining vWF-Ag levels with MELD-Na improves risk stratification and may help to prioritize organ allocation to decrease waiting-list mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Georg P. Györi
- Division of TransplantationDepartment of SurgeryMedical University of ViennaGeneral Hospital ViennaViennaAustria
| | - David Pereyra
- Division of General SurgeryDepartment of SurgeryMedical University of ViennaGeneral Hospital ViennaViennaAustria
| | - Benedikt Rumpf
- Division of General SurgeryDepartment of SurgeryMedical University of ViennaGeneral Hospital ViennaViennaAustria
| | - Hubert Hackl
- Division of Bioinformatics, BiocenterMedical University of InnsbruckInnsbruckAustria
| | - Christoph Köditz
- Division of General SurgeryDepartment of SurgeryMedical University of ViennaGeneral Hospital ViennaViennaAustria
| | - Gregor Ortmayr
- Division of General SurgeryDepartment of SurgeryMedical University of ViennaGeneral Hospital ViennaViennaAustria
| | - Thomas Reiberger
- Division of Gastroenterology and HepatologyDepartment of Internal Medicine IIIMedical University of ViennaGeneral Hospital ViennaViennaAustria
| | - Michael Trauner
- Division of Gastroenterology and HepatologyDepartment of Internal Medicine IIIMedical University of ViennaGeneral Hospital ViennaViennaAustria
| | - Gabriela A. Berlakovich
- Division of TransplantationDepartment of SurgeryMedical University of ViennaGeneral Hospital ViennaViennaAustria
| | - Patrick Starlinger
- Division of General SurgeryDepartment of SurgeryMedical University of ViennaGeneral Hospital ViennaViennaAustria
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30
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Predicting Liver Transplant Patient Outcomes. Is a Validated Model Enough? Transplantation 2020; 104:2469-2470. [PMID: 32675740 DOI: 10.1097/tp.0000000000003354] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
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31
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Ishigami M, Honda T, Kuzuya T, Ishizu Y, Ito T, Kamei H, Ogura Y, Fujishiro M. Revisiting the indications for liver transplantation in cirrhotic patients considering the long‐term outcomes of cirrhotic patients. JOURNAL OF HEPATO-BILIARY-PANCREATIC SCIENCES 2020; 27:655-662. [DOI: 10.1002/jhbp.777] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/18/2020] [Revised: 05/16/2020] [Accepted: 05/26/2020] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Masatoshi Ishigami
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Nagoya University School of Medicine Nagoya Japan
| | - Takashi Honda
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Nagoya University School of Medicine Nagoya Japan
| | - Teiji Kuzuya
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Nagoya University School of Medicine Nagoya Japan
| | - Yoji Ishizu
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Nagoya University School of Medicine Nagoya Japan
| | - Takanori Ito
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Nagoya University School of Medicine Nagoya Japan
| | - Hideya Kamei
- Department of Transplant Surgery Nagoya University School of Medicine Nagoya Japan
| | - Yasuhiro Ogura
- Department of Transplant Surgery Nagoya University School of Medicine Nagoya Japan
| | - Mitsuhiro Fujishiro
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Nagoya University School of Medicine Nagoya Japan
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32
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Asrani SK, Jennings LW, Kim WR, Kamath PS, Levitsky J, Nadim MK, Testa G, Leise MD, Trotter JF, Klintmalm G. MELD-GRAIL-Na: Glomerular Filtration Rate and Mortality on Liver-Transplant Waiting List. Hepatology 2020; 71:1766-1774. [PMID: 31523825 DOI: 10.1002/hep.30932] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/15/2019] [Accepted: 08/22/2019] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS Among patients with cirrhosis awaiting liver transplantation, prediction of wait-list (WL) mortality is adjudicated by the Model for End Stage Liver Disease-Sodium (MELD-Na) score. Replacing serum creatinine (SCr) with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in the MELD-Na score may improve prediction of WL mortality, especially for women and highest disease severity. APPROACH AND RESULTS We developed (2014) and validated (2015) a model incorporating eGFR using national data (n = 17,095) to predict WL mortality. Glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was estimated using the GFR assessment in liver disease (GRAIL) developed among patients with cirrhosis. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis models were used to compare the predicted 90-day WL mortality between MELD-GRAIL-Na (re-estimated bilirubin, international normalized ratio [INR], sodium, and GRAIL) versus MELD-Na. Within 3 months, 27.8% were transplanted, 4.3% died on the WL, and 4.7% were delisted for other reasons. GFR as estimated by GRAIL (hazard ratio [HR] 0.382, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.344-0.424) and the re-estimated model MELD-GRAIL-Na (HR 1.212, 95% CI 1.199-1.224) were significant predictors of mortality or being delisted on the WL within 3 months. MELD-GRAIL-Na was a better predictor of observed mortality at highest deciles of disease severity (≥ 27-40). For a score of 32 or higher (observed mortality 0.68), predicted mortality was 0.67 (MELD-GRAIL-Na) and 0.51 (MELD-Na). For women, a score of 32 or higher (observed mortality 0.67), the predicted mortality was 0.69 (MELD-GRAIL-Na) and 0.55 (MELD-Na). In 2015, use of MELD-GRAIL-Na as compared with MELD-Na resulted in reclassification of 16.7% (n = 672) of patients on the WL. CONCLUSION Incorporation of eGFR likely captures true GFR better than SCr, especially among women. Incorporation of MELD-GRAIL-Na instead of MELD-Na may affect outcomes for 12%-17% awaiting transplant and affect organ allocation.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - W R Kim
- Stanford University, Stanford, CA
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33
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Atiemo K, Mazumder NR, Caicedo JC, Ganger D, Gordon E, Montag S, Maddur H, VanWagner LB, Goel S, Kho A, Abecassis M, Zhao L, Ladner D. The Hispanic Paradox in Patients With Liver Cirrhosis: Current Evidence From a Large Regional Retrospective Cohort Study. Transplantation 2019; 103:2531-2538. [PMID: 30951016 PMCID: PMC6774922 DOI: 10.1097/tp.0000000000002733] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/19/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Despite lower socioeconomic status, Hispanics in the United States paradoxically maintain equal or higher average survival rates compared to non-Hispanic Whites (NHW). METHODS We used multivariable Cox regression to assess whether this "Hispanic paradox" applies to patients with liver cirrhosis using a retrospective cohort of twenty 121 patients in a Chicago-wide electronic health record database. RESULTS Our study population included 3279 (16%) Hispanics, 9150 (45%) NHW, 4432 (22%) African Americans, 529 (3%) Asians, and 2731 (14%) of other races/ethnic groups. Compared to Hispanics, NHW (hazard ratio [HR] 1.26; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16-1.37), African American (HR 1.26; 95% CI, 1.15-1.39), and other races/ethnic groups (HR 1.55; 95% CI, 1.40-1.71) had an increased risk of death despite adjustment for age, sex, insurance status, etiology of cirrhosis, and comorbidities. On stratified analyses, a mortality advantage for Hispanics compared to NHW was seen for alcohol cirrhosis (HR for NHW 1.35; 95% CI, 1.19-1.52), hepatitis B (HR for NHW 1.35; 95% CI, 0.98-1.87), hepatitis C (HR for NHW 1.21; 95% CI, 1.06-1.38), and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (HR for NHW 1.14; 95% CI, 0.94-1.39). There was no advantage associated with Hispanic race over NHW in cases of hepatocellular carcinoma or cholestatic liver disease. CONCLUSIONS Hispanic patients with cirrhosis experience a survival advantage over many other racial groups despite adjustment for multiple covariates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kofi Atiemo
- Northwestern University Transplant Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Comprehensive Transplant Center (CTC), Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL
| | - Nikhilesh R Mazumder
- Division of Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL
| | - Juan C Caicedo
- Northwestern University Transplant Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Comprehensive Transplant Center (CTC), Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL
| | - Daniel Ganger
- Northwestern University Transplant Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Comprehensive Transplant Center (CTC), Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL
- Division of Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL
| | - Elisa Gordon
- Northwestern University Transplant Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Comprehensive Transplant Center (CTC), Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL
- Center for Healthcare Studies, Institute for Public Health and Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL
| | - Samantha Montag
- Northwestern University Transplant Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Comprehensive Transplant Center (CTC), Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL
| | - Haripriya Maddur
- Northwestern University Transplant Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Comprehensive Transplant Center (CTC), Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL
- Division of Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL
| | - Lisa B VanWagner
- Northwestern University Transplant Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Comprehensive Transplant Center (CTC), Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL
- Division of Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL
| | - Satyender Goel
- Center for Health Information Partnerships, Institute for Public Health and Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL
| | - Abel Kho
- Center for Health Information Partnerships, Institute for Public Health and Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL
| | - Michael Abecassis
- Northwestern University Transplant Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Comprehensive Transplant Center (CTC), Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL
| | - Lihui Zhao
- Northwestern University Transplant Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Comprehensive Transplant Center (CTC), Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL
| | - Daniela Ladner
- Northwestern University Transplant Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Comprehensive Transplant Center (CTC), Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL
- Center for Healthcare Studies, Institute for Public Health and Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL
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Abstract
Patients with portal hypertension will increasingly present for nontransplant surgery because of the increasing incidence of, and improving long-term survival for, chronic liver disease. Such patients have increased perioperative morbidity and mortality caused by the systemic pathophysiology of liver disease. Preoperative assessment should identify modifiable causes of liver injury and distinguish between compensated and decompensated cirrhosis. Risk stratification, which is crucial to preparing patients and their families for surgery, relies on scores such as Child-Turcotte-Pugh and Model for End-stage Liver Disease to translate disease severity into quantified outcomes predictions. Risk factors for postoperative complications should also be recognized.
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Affiliation(s)
- Melissa Wong
- Division of Transplant Surgery, Department of Surgery, Medical College of Wisconsin, Transplant Center, 9200 West Wisconsin Avenue, Milwaukee, WI 53226, USA
| | - Ronald W Busuttil
- Division of Liver and Pancreas Transplantation, Department of Surgery, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California at Los Angeles, The Dumont-UCLA Transplant Center, 757 Westwood Blvd, Suite 8236, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA.
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35
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Lai JC, Dodge JL, McCulloch CE, Covinsky KE, Singer JP. Frailty and the Burden of Concurrent and Incident Disability in Patients With Cirrhosis: A Prospective Cohort Study. Hepatol Commun 2019; 4:126-133. [PMID: 31909360 PMCID: PMC6939546 DOI: 10.1002/hep4.1444] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2019] [Accepted: 09/28/2019] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Frailty results from the chronic effects of malnutrition and muscle wasting in patients with cirrhosis. It is well-established that frailty is strongly associated with mortality in this population. However, little is known of its relationship with physical disability, a critical patient-centered outcome. Adults with cirrhosis underwent outpatient testing of frailty using the Liver Frailty Index (LFI) and disability using activities of daily living (ADL; range 0-6) and Instrumental ADL (IADL; range 0-8) scales at one center between 2012 and 2016. We used adjusted multilevel logistic mixed-effects regression to test the association between frailty and current disability (impairment with ≥1 ADL or IADL) and incident disability at 6 months among those without baseline disability. Of the 983 participants, 20% were robust, 32% were less robust, 33% were prefrail, and 15% were frail; 587 (60%) had at least 1 assessment. The percentage of participants with at least 1 baseline ADL or IADL impairment was 28% and 37%, respectively. In adjusted regression models, each point LFI increase was associated with a 3.3 and 4.6 higher odds of current difficulty with at least 1 ADL and IADL (P < 0.001 for each), respectively. Among participants without baseline disability, each point LFI increase was associated with a 2.6 and 1.7 higher odds of having difficulty with at least 1 ADL and IADL at 6 months, respectively. Conclusion: Frailty is strongly associated with concurrent and incident disability in patients with cirrhosis. In the clinic, the LFI can be used to identify those in greatest need for additional support/resources to maintain functional independence. In research settings, the LFI may help to identify an enriched population for clinical trials of interventions aimed at those most vulnerable to disability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jennifer C Lai
- Department of Medicine University of California, San Francisco San Francisco CA
| | - Jennifer L Dodge
- Department of Surgery University of California, San Francisco San Francisco CA
| | - Charles E McCulloch
- Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics University of California, San Francisco San Francisco CA
| | - Kenneth E Covinsky
- Department of Medicine University of California, San Francisco San Francisco CA
| | - Jonathan P Singer
- Department of Medicine University of California, San Francisco San Francisco CA
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Grigorian A, Albertson S, Delaplain PT, Gabriel V, Maithel S, Dosch A, Schubl S, Joe V, Nahmias J. Cirrhosis increases complication rate and overall mortality in patients with traumatic lung injury. TRAUMA-ENGLAND 2019. [DOI: 10.1177/1460408618774577] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/15/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Areg Grigorian
- Department of Surgery, Division of Trauma, Burns and Surgical Critical Care, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, USA
| | - Spencer Albertson
- Department of Surgery, Division of Trauma, Burns and Surgical Critical Care, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, USA
| | - Patrick T Delaplain
- Department of Surgery, Division of Trauma, Burns and Surgical Critical Care, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, USA
| | - Viktor Gabriel
- Department of Surgery, Division of Trauma, Burns and Surgical Critical Care, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, USA
| | - Shelley Maithel
- Department of Surgery, Division of Trauma, Burns and Surgical Critical Care, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, USA
| | - Austin Dosch
- Department of Surgery, Division of Trauma, Burns and Surgical Critical Care, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, USA
| | - Sebastian Schubl
- Department of Surgery, Division of Trauma, Burns and Surgical Critical Care, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, USA
| | - Victor Joe
- Department of Surgery, Division of Trauma, Burns and Surgical Critical Care, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, USA
| | - Jeffry Nahmias
- Department of Surgery, Division of Trauma, Burns and Surgical Critical Care, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, USA
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37
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O'Grady JG, Lake J. Death With Low MELD Scores and Possible Implications for Organ Allocation. Am J Transplant 2017; 17:2238-2239. [PMID: 28678428 DOI: 10.1111/ajt.14414] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2017] [Revised: 05/12/2017] [Accepted: 05/28/2017] [Indexed: 01/25/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- J G O'Grady
- Institute of Liver Studies, King's College Hospital, London, UK
| | - J Lake
- Liver Transplantation Program, University of Minnesota Medical School, Minneapolis, MN
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