Development of a stratification tool to identify pancreatic intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms at lowest risk of progression

Older Age as a Worrisome Feature in Patients With Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms: A Long-Term Surveillance Study

INTRODUCTION

Aging has been implicated in the development of various cancer types. No study has specifically investigated age at intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) diagnosis in relation to the long-term risk of pancreatic carcinogenesis.

METHODS

Within a prospective cohort of 4,104 patients diagnosed with pancreatic cysts, we identified 3,142 patients with IPMNs and examined an association of age at IPMN diagnosis with the incidence of pancreatic carcinoma. Using the multivariable competing-risks proportional hazards regression model, we estimated subdistribution hazard ratios (SHRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for pancreatic carcinoma incidence according to age at IPMN diagnosis.

RESULTS

During 22,187 person-years of follow-up, we documented 130 patients diagnosed with pancreatic carcinoma (64 with IPMN-derived carcinoma and 66 with concomitant ductal adenocarcinoma). Older age at IPMN diagnosis was associated with a higher risk of pancreatic cancer incidence ( Ptrend = 0.002). Compared with patients younger than 55 years, patients aged 55-64, 65-74, and ≥ 75 years had adjusted SHRs of 1.80 (95% CI, 0.75-4.32), 2.56 (95% CI, 1.10-5.98), and 3.31 (95% CI, 1.40-7.83), respectively. Patients aged 70 years and older had a numerically similar adjusted SHR compared with patients younger than 70 years with worrisome features defined by the international consensus guidelines (1.73 [95% CI, 1.01-2.97] and 1.66 [95% CI, 0.89-3.10], respectively).

DISCUSSION

Older patients with IPMNs were at a higher risk of developing pancreatic carcinoma during surveillance. Surgically fit elderly patients may be good candidates for periodic surveillance aimed at a reduction of pancreatic cancer-related deaths.

Pancreatic cysts: can surveillance interval for small low-risk lesions be lengthened?

BACKGROUND

Surveillance of pancreatic cysts are necessary due to risk of malignant transformation. However, reported progression rates to advanced neoplasia are variable and the high frequency of surveillance scans may pose a considerable burden on healthcare resources.

PURPOSE

To validate the effectiveness of the Fukuoka Guidelines surveillance regime and determine if a longer surveillance interval can be established.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

All magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) studies of the pancreas performed at our institution between January 2014 and December 2016 with at least one pancreatic cystic lesion and follow-up MRI or computed tomography (CT) over at least two years were reviewed for size, worrisome feature (WF), and high-risk stigmata (HRS) at diagnosis and follow-up imaging (up to year 6). Reference standards for advanced neoplasia were based on endoscopic ultrasound, fine needle aspiration cytology, or the presence of ≥2 WF or ≥1 HRS on imaging. Comparison of MRI features of progression and outcomes of diagnostic endpoints between lesions <20 mm and ≥20 mm was performed.

RESULTS

A total of 270 patients were included (201 cysts <20 mm, 69 cysts ≥20 mm). Compared with cysts <20 mm, cysts ≥20 mm were more likely to be associated with WF or HRS (40.6% vs. 12.4%; P ≤0.00001), demonstrate increase in size of ≥5 mm in two years (20.3% vs. 10.9%; P = 0.049), and develop advanced neoplasia (24.6% vs. 0.5%; P <0.00001).

CONCLUSION

Pancreatic cysts <20 mm have a low risk of developing WF and HRS and surveillance interval may be lengthened.

Systematic review on surveillance for non-resected branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas

BACKGROUND

The management of branch-duct type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMN) varies in existing guidelines. This study investigated the optimal surveillance protocol and safe discontinuation of surveillance considering natural history in non-resected IPMN, by systematically reviewing the published literature.

METHODS

This review was guided by PRISMA. Research questions were framed in PICO format "CQ1-1: Is size criteria helpful to determine surveillance period? CQ1-2: How often should surveillance be carried out? CQ1-3: When should surveillance be discontinued? CQ1-4: Is nomogram predicting malignancy useful during surveillance?". PubMed was searched from January-April 2022.

RESULTS

The search generated 2373 citations. After screening, 83 articles were included. Among them, 33 studies were identified for CQ1-1, 19 for CQ1-2, 26 for CQ1-3 and 12 for CQ1-4. Cysts <1.5 or 2 cm without worrisome features (WF) were described as more indolent, and most studies advised an initial period of surveillance. The median growth rate of cysts <2 cm ranged from 0.23 to 0.6 mm/year. Patients with cysts <2 cm showing no morphological changes and no WF after 5-years of surveillance have minimal malignancy risk of 0-2%. Two nomograms created with over 1000 patients had AUCs of around 0.8 and appear to be feasible in a real-world practice.

CONCLUSIONS

For patients with suspected BD-IPMN <2 cm and no other WF, less frequent surveillance is recommended. Surveillance may be discontinued for cysts that remain stable during 5-year surveillance, with consideration of patient condition and life expectancy. With this updated surveillance strategy, patients with non-worrisome BD-IPMN should expect more streamlined management and decreased healthcare utilization.

Risk Perceptions and Risk Thresholds Among Surgeons in the Management of Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to determine whether surgeon variation in management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) is driven by differences in risk perception and quantify surgeons' risk threshold for changing their recommendations.

BACKGROUND

Surgeons vary widely in management of IPMN.

METHODS

We conducted a survey of members of the Americas HepatoPancreatoBiliary Association, presented participants with 2 detailed clinical vignettes and asked them to choose between surgical resection and surveillance. We also asked them to judge the likelihood that the IPMN harbors cancer and that the patient would have a serious complication if surgery was performed. Finally, we asked surgeons to rate the level of cancer risk at which they would change their treatment recommendation. We examined the association between surgeons' treatment recommendations and their risk perception and risk threshold.

RESULTS

One hundred fifty surgeons participated in the study. Surgeons varied in their recommendations for surgery [19% for vignette 1 (V1) and 12% for V2] and in their perception of the cancer risk (interquartile range: 2%-10% for V1 and V2) and risk of surgical complications (V1 interquartile range: 10%-20%, V2 20-30%). After adjusting for surgeon characteristics, surgeons who were above the median in cancer risk perception were 22 percentage points (27% vs 5%) more likely to recommend resection than those who were below the median (95% CI: 11%-4%; P <0.001). The median risk threshold at which surgeons would change their recommendation was 15% (V1 and V2). Surgeons who recommended surgery had a lower risk threshold for changing their recommendation than those who recommended surveillance (V1: 10.0 vs 15.0, P =0.06; V2: 7.0 vs 15.0, P =0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The treatment that patients receive for IPMNs depends greatly on how their surgeons perceive the risk of cancer in the lesion. Efforts to improve cancer risk prediction for IPMNs may lead to decreased variations in care.

Standardization of MRI Screening and Reporting in Individuals With Elevated Risk of Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma: Consensus Statement of the PRECEDE Consortium

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is one of the most aggressive malignancies, with a dismal survival rate. Screening the general population for early detection of PDAC is not recommended, but because early detection improves survival, high-risk individuals, defined as those meeting criteria based on a family history of PDAC and/or the presence of known pathogenic germline variant genes with PDAC risk, are recommended to undergo screening with MRI and/or endoscopic ultrasound at regular intervals. The Pancreatic Cancer Early Detection (PRECEDE) Consortium was formed in 2018 and is composed of gastroenterologists, geneticists, pancreatic surgeons, radiologists, statisticians, and researchers from 40 sites in North America, Europe, and Asia. The overarching goal of the PRECEDE Consortium is to facilitate earlier diagnosis of PDAC for high-risk individuals to increase survival of the disease. A standardized MRI protocol and reporting template are needed to enhance the quality of screening examinations, improve consistency of clinical management, and facilitate multiinstitutional research. We present a consensus statement to standardize MRI screening and reporting for individuals with elevated risk of pancreatic cancer.

New-Onset Diabetes Is a Potential Marker for the Malignant Transformation of Pancreatic Cysts: A Real-World Population Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES

New-onset diabetes mellitus has been shown to be associated with pancreatic cancer (PC) in the general population. Our objective was to leverage real-world data to assess the association of new-onset diabetes (NODM) with malignant transformation in a large longitudinal cohort of pancreatic cyst patients.

METHODS

A retrospective longitudinal cohort study was conducted using IBM's MarketScan claims databases from 2009 to 2017. From 200 million database subjects, we selected patients with newly diagnosed cysts without prior pancreatic pathology.

RESULTS

Of the 137,970 patients with a pancreatic cyst, 14,279 had a new diagnosis. Median follow-up was 41.6 months. Patients with NODM progressed to PC at nearly 3 times the rate of patients without a diabetes history (hazard ratio, 2.80; 95% confidence interval, 2.05-3.83) and at a significantly higher rate than patients with preexisting diabetes (hazard ratio, 1.59; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-2.21). The mean interval between NODM and cancer diagnosis was 7.5 months.

CONCLUSIONS

Cyst patients who developed NODM progressed to PC at 3 times the rate of nondiabetics and at a greater rate than preexisting diabetics. The diagnosis of NODM preceded cancer detection by several months. These results support the inclusion of diabetes mellitus screening in cyst surveillance algorithms.

Standardization of EUS imaging and reporting in high-risk individuals of pancreatic adenocarcinoma: consensus statement of the Pancreatic Cancer Early Detection Consortium

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma is an aggressive disease most often diagnosed after local progression or metastatic dissemination, precluding resection and resulting in a high mortality rate. For individuals with elevated personal risk of the development of pancreatic cancer, EUS is a frequently used advanced imaging and diagnostic modality. However, variability in the expertise and definition of EUS findings exists among gastroenterologists, as well as a lack of standardized reporting of relevant findings at the time of examination. Adoption of standardized EUS reporting, using a universally accepted and agreed on terminology, is needed.

METHODS

A consensus statement designed to create a standardized reporting template was authored by a multidisciplinary group of experts in pancreatic diseases that includes gastroenterologists, radiologists, surgeons, oncologists, and geneticists. This statement was developed using a modified Delphi process as part of the Pancreatic Cancer Early Detection Consortium, and >75% agreement was required to reach consensus.

RESULTS

We identified reporting elements and present standardized reporting templates for EUS indications, procedural data, EUS image capture, and descriptors of findings, tissue sampling, and postprocedural assessment of adequacy.

CONCLUSIONS

Adoption of this standardized EUS reporting template should improve consistency in clinical decision-making for individuals with elevated risk of pancreatic cancer by providing complete and accurate reporting of pancreatic abnormalities. Standardization will also help to facilitate research and clinical trial design by using clearly defined and consistent imaging descriptions, thus allowing for comparison of results across different centers.

[Diagnostics and clinical management of premalignant diseases of the pancreas]

Pancreatic cancer is one of the most aggressive solid tumors and still has a poor prognosis. A delayed diagnosis at advanced stages and a poor response to systemic treatment frequently make a curative treatment impossible. Therefore, the identification of high-risk patients and screening them regularly is the most promising approach to improve the prognosis. Chronic pancreatitis as well as neoplastic pancreatic cysts can greatly increase the risk of developing pancreatic cancer. Furthermore, familial syndromes and germline mutations also confer an increased risk for development of pancreatic cancer. This article provides an overview of the various premalignant diseases of the pancreas. The value of the various imaging modalities, such as magnetic resonance imaging and endosonography are particularly discussed as well as the screening interval and the indications for surgical treatment are explained.

International external validation of a stratification tool to identify branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms at lowest risk of progression

Background

Identifying branch‐duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD‐IPMNs) at lowest risk of progression may allow for a reduced intensity of surveillance.

Objective

We aimed to externally validate the previously developed Dutch‐American Risk stratification Tool (DART‐1; https://rtools.mayo.edu/DART/), which identifies cysts at low risk of developing worrisome features (WFs) or high‐risk stigmata (HRS).

Methods

Three prospective cohorts of individuals under surveillance for BD‐IPMNs were combined, independent from the original development cohort. We assessed the performance (discrimination and calibration) of DART‐1, a multivariable Cox‐proportional logistic regression model with five predictors for the development of WFs or HRS.

Results

Of 832 individuals (mean age 77 years, SD 11.5) under surveillance for a median of 40 months (IQR 44), 163 (20%) developed WFs or HRS. DART‐1's discriminative ability (C‐statistic 0.68) was similar to that in the development cohort (0.64–0.72) and showed moderate calibration. DART‐1 adequately estimated the risk for patients in the middle risk quintile, and slightly underestimated it in the lowest quintiles. Their range of predicted versus observed 3‐year risk was 0%–0% versus 0%–3.7% for Q1; 0.3%–0.4% versus 3%–11% for Q2; and 2.6%–3% versus 2.4%–9.8% for Q3. The development of WFs or HRS was associated with pancreatic cancer (p < 0.001). Vice versa, in absence of WFs or HRS, the risk of malignancy was low (0.3%).

Conclusions

The performance of DART‐1 to predict the development of WFs or HRS in BD‐IPMN was validated in an external international cohort, with a discriminative ability equal as in the development cohort. Risk estimations were most accurate for patients with BD‐IPMNs in the middle risk quintile and slightly underestimated in the lowest quintiles.

Updates in diagnosis and management of pancreatic cysts

Incidental pancreatic cysts are commonly encountered with some cysts having malignant potential. The most common pancreatic cystic neoplasms include serous cystadenoma, mucinous cystic neoplasm and intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm. Risk stratifying pancreatic cysts is important in deciding whether patients may benefit from endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) or surgical resection. Surgery should be reserved for patients with malignant cysts or cysts at high risk for developing malignancy as suggested by various risk features including solid mass, nodule and dilated main pancreatic duct. EUS may supplement magnetic resonance imaging findings for cysts that remain indeterminate or have concerning features on imaging. Various cyst fluid markers including carcinoembryonic antigen, glucose, amylase, cytology, and DNA markers help distinguish mucinous from nonmucinous cysts. This review will guide the practicing gastroenterologist in how to evaluate incidental pancreatic cysts and when to consider referral for EUS or surgery. For presumed low risk cysts, surveillance strategies will be discussed. Managing pancreatic cysts requires an individualized approach that is directed by the various guidelines.

High-Risk Characteristics Associated with Advanced Pancreatic Cystic Lesions: Results from a Retrospective Surgical Cohort

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The management of pancreatic cystic lesions (PCLs) remains controversial. We performed a retrospective study to determine characteristics associated with advanced PCLs (A-PCLs) and whether these characteristics vary in different pathological types of PCLs. The additional diagnostic value of endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) was also evaluated.

METHODS

Patients who underwent surgical resection for an identified PCLs by imaging modalities were included. A logistic regression model was developed to identify significant characteristics for A-PCLs. EUS data was assessed separately.

RESULTS

Three hundred and fifty-three patients were included, and 125 patients (35.4%) were A-PCLs. The presence of main pancreatic duct (MPD) diameter ≥ 10 mm (odds ratio [OR], 11.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.53-89.2; P = 0.018), mural nodules ≥ 5 mm (OR, 11.67; 95% CI, 2.3-59.05; P = 0.003), solid components within cysts (OR, 30.87; 95% CI, 7.23-131.7; P < 0.0001) and high serum CA19-9 levels (OR, 1.006; 95% CI, 1.001-1.011; P = 0.02) were independently associated with the presence of A-PCLs. The presence of septa was independently associated with the presence of non-A-PCLs (OR, 0.147; 95% CI, 0.04-0.6; P = 0.008). Males who had a history of tobacco abuse (P < 0.0001) and had a greatly dilated MPD (P < 0.0001) were more common in advanced intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMC) patients. Solid pseudopapillary neoplasm (SPT) often occurred in young women (P < 0.0001), mostly asymptomatically (P < 0.0001) and with lower serum CA19-9 levels (P < 0.0001). In the 124 patients who underwent EUS-guided fine-needle aspiration (EUS-FNA), five additional characteristics (4 mural nodules and 1 MPD involvement) were identified by EUS imaging and 17 patients were identified with abnormal cytological results (13 atypical cells and 4 suspicious for malignancy cells) by EUS-FNA.

CONCLUSION

On the basis of a retrospective study with large sample size, the presence of MPD ≥ 10 mm, mural nodules, solid components, and high serum CA19-9 levels were independently associated with the presence of A-PCLs. The high-risk characteristics may vary across different types of A-PCLs. EUS and EUS-FNA could provide additional diagnostic information for PCLs.

A Review of the Diagnosis and Management of Premalignant Pancreatic Cystic Lesions

Pancreatic cystic lesions are an increasingly common clinical finding. They represent a heterogeneous group of lesions that include two of the three known precursors of pancreatic cancer, intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) and mucinous cystic neoplasms (MCN). Given that approximately 8% of pancreatic cancers arise from these lesions, careful surveillance and timely surgery offers an opportunity for early curative resection in a disease with a dismal prognosis. This review summarizes the current evidence and guidelines for the diagnosis and management of IPMN/MCN. Current pre-operative diagnostic tests in pancreatic cysts are imperfect and a proportion of patients continue to undergo unnecessary surgical resection annually. Balancing cancer prevention while preventing surgical overtreatment, continues to be challenging when managing pancreatic cysts. Cyst fluid molecular markers, such as KRAS, GNAS, VHL, PIK3CA, SMAD4 and TP53, as well as emerging endoscopic technologies such as needle-based confocal laser endomicroscopy and through the needle microbiopsy forceps demonstrate improved diagnostic accuracy. Differences in management and areas of uncertainty between the guidelines are also discussed, including indications for surgery, surveillance protocols and if and when surveillance can be discontinued.

New onset diabetes predicts progression of low risk pancreatic mucinous cysts

BACKGROUND

Patients with low-risk lesions require ongoing surveillance since the rate of progression to pancreatic cancer (PC), while small, is much greater than in the general population. Our objective was to study the relationship between new onset diabetes (NODM) and progression in patients with low risk mucinous cysts.

METHODS

We evaluated a prospectively maintained cohort of 442 patients with a suspected mucinous cyst without worrisome features (WF) or high-risk stigmata (HRS). Multivariable Cox models were developed for progression to WF and HRS, with diabetes status formulated as both time independent and dependent covariates. The adjusted cumulative risk of progression was calculated using the corrected group prognosis method.

RESULTS

The 5-year cumulative progression rates to WFs and HRS were 12.8 and 3.6%, respectively. After controlling for other risk factors, the development of NODM was strongly associated with progression to HRS (HR = 11.6; 95%CI, 3.5-57.7%), but not WF. Among patients with the smallest cysts (<10 mm) at baseline, those who developed NODM had a 5-year adjusted cumulative risk of progression to HRS of 8.6% (95%CI, 0.0%-20.2%), compared to only 0.8% (95%CI, 0.0%-2.3%) for patients without NODM. Among patients with the largest cysts (20-29 mm), those who developed NODM during surveillance had a 5-year adjusted cumulative risk of progression of 53.5% (95%CI, 19.6%-89.9%) compared to only 7.5% (95%CI, 1.6%-15.2%) for patients without NODM.

CONCLUSION

New onset diabetes may predict progression in patients with low risk mucinous cysts. Pending validation with large-scale studies, these findings support regular diabetes screening among patients surveilled for suspected IPMNs or MCNs.

Factors Associated With the Risk of Progression of Low-Risk Branch-Duct Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms

IMPORTANCE

Branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs) are common pancreatic preneoplastic lesions, but their surveillance is not personalized.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate patient- and cyst-related factors associated with progression into worrisome features (WFs) or high-risk stigmata (HRS) categories of BD-IPMNs.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Cyst- and patient-related factors of consecutive BD-IPMNs without WFs or HRS in 540 patients diagnosed from 2009 to 2018 with at least 12 months' surveillance until February 28, 2020, were registered in a 2-center ambispective cohort study in Italy. In a subgroup, the ABO blood group was studied for the first time in this setting.

EXPOSURE

Cyst-related and patients-related factors and ABO blood group.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The study outcome was the appearance of WFs or HRS according to the 2017 International Association of Pancreatology guidelines. Survival probability was calculated using Kaplan-Meier curve and risk factors identified by Cox proportional hazards regression. ABO blood group was inferred through genotypes with DNA extraction.

RESULTS

Of 540 patients with BD-IPMNs (median age, 66 years [interquartile range, 58.5-72.0 years]; 337 women [62.4%]) undergoing surveillance for a median of 51.5 months (interquartile range, 28-84 months) for 2758 person-years, 130 patients (24.1%) experienced progression. Probability of progression was 3.7% at 1 year, 23.4% at 5 years, and 43.3% at 10 years; 15 patients (2.8%) underwent surgery, 7 patients (1.3%) had malignant histologic findings, and 3 patients (0.56%) died of pancreatic-associated disease. Initial cyst size greater than 15 mm (hazard ratio [HR], 2.05; 95% CI, 1.44-2.91), body mass index greater than 26.4 (HR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.19-2.50), and heavy smoking (HR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.14-2.86) were significant independent factors associated with progression risk. The AA blood genotype was also associated with progression risk (HR, 3.49; 95% CI, 1.04-11.71) compared with the OO genotype in the investigated subgroup.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This analysis of factors associated with progression of BD-IPMNs according to recent guidelines suggests that cyst size alone is not a reliable factor for estimation of progression risk; however, along with other readily available data, size is helpful for planning personalized surveillance of BD-IPMNs.