Rapid deforestation threatens mid-elevational endemic birds but climate change is most important at higher elevations

An ensemble model predicts an upward range shift of the endemic and endangered Yellow-throated Apalis (Apalis flavigularis) under future climate change in Malawi

Climate change poses a significant threat to endemic and endangered montane bird species with limited elevation and temperature ranges. Understanding their responses to changes in climate is essential for informing conservation actions. This study focused on the montane dwelling Yellow-throated Apalis (Apalis flavigularis) in Malawi, aiming to identify key factors affecting its distribution and predicting its potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. Using an ensemble species distribution modeling approach, we found that the mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio8), and precipitation seasonality (Bio15) were the most important variables that influenced the distribution of this species. Across future climate scenarios, the species' geographic range declined where range losses varied from 57.74% (2050 RCP 6.0) to 82.88% (2070 RCP 6.0). We estimate its current range size to be 549 km2 which is lower than some previous estimates of its spatial distribution. Moreover, our projections indicate that under future climate scenarios, the species will shift to higher elevations with a large proportion of suitable areas located outside forests, posing challenges for adaptation. Our results suggest that the species may be under greater threat than previously thought; hence, urgent conservation actions are required. We recommend reinforcing the protection of areas predicted to remain suitable under future climate scenarios and the development of a species conservation action plan.

Region-wide retreats from lower elevations of range-restricted birds across the Northern Andes

Local studies show upslope shifts in the distribution of tropical birds in response to warming temperatures. Unanswered is whether these upward shifts occur regionally across many species. We considered a nearly 2000-km length of the Northern Andes, where deforestation, temperature, and extreme weather events have increased during the past decades. Range-restricted bird species are particularly vulnerable to such events and occur in exceptionally high numbers in this region. Using abundant crowd-sourced data from the Cornell Lab of Ornithology database, eBird, and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, we documented distributions of nearly 200 such species. We examined whether species shifted their elevational ranges over time by comparing observed versus expected occurrences below a low elevational threshold and above a high elevational threshold for 2 periods: before and after 2005. We predicted fewer observations at lower elevations (those below the threshold) and more at upper elevations (those above the threshold) after 2005. We also tested for deforestation effects at lower elevations within each species' distribution ranges. We compared relative forest loss with the differences between observed and expected occurrences across the elevational range. Species' retreats from lower elevations were ubiquitous and involved a 23-40% decline in prevalence at the lowest elevations. Increases at higher elevations were not consistent. The retreats occurred across a broad spectrum of species, from predominantly lowland to predominantly highland. Because deforestation showed no relationship with species retreats, we contend that a warming climate is the most parsimonious explanation for such shifts.

Impacts of anthropogenic climate change on tropical montane forests: an appraisal of the evidence

In spite of their small global area and restricted distributions, tropical montane forests (TMFs) are biodiversity hotspots and important ecosystem services providers, but are also highly vulnerable to climate change. To protect and preserve these ecosystems better, it is crucial to inform the design and implementation of conservation policies with the best available scientific evidence, and to identify knowledge gaps and future research needs. We conducted a systematic review and an appraisal of evidence quality to assess the impacts of climate change on TMFs. We identified several skews and shortcomings. Experimental study designs with controls and long-term (≥10 years) data sets provide the most reliable evidence, but were rare and gave an incomplete understanding of climate change impacts on TMFs. Most studies were based on predictive modelling approaches, short-term (<10 years) and cross-sectional study designs. Although these methods provide moderate to circumstantial evidence, they can advance our understanding on climate change effects. Current evidence suggests that increasing temperatures and rising cloud levels have caused distributional shifts (mainly upslope) of montane biota, leading to alterations in biodiversity and ecological functions. Neotropical TMFs were the best studied, thus the knowledge derived there can serve as a proxy for climate change responses in under-studied regions elsewhere. Most studies focused on vascular plants, birds, amphibians and insects, with other taxonomic groups poorly represented. Most ecological studies were conducted at species or community levels, with a marked paucity of genetic studies, limiting understanding of the adaptive capacity of TMF biota. We thus highlight the long-term need to widen the methodological, thematic and geographical scope of studies on TMFs under climate change to address these uncertainties. In the short term, however, in-depth research in well-studied regions and advances in computer modelling approaches offer the most reliable sources of information for expeditious conservation action for these threatened forests.

The combined effects of temperature and fragment area on the demographic rates of an Afrotropical bird community over 34 years

Habitat fragmentation and climate change are two of the greatest threats to biodiversity, yet their combined impacts and potential interactions are poorly understood, particularly in the context of demographic rates. The Usambara Mountains, Tanzania, comprise a highly fragmented landscape where temperatures have increased by 0.58 °C over the last three decades. Here, we used a 34-year bird banding dataset from 14 forest fragments (0.2-908 ha) to examine the combined effects of fragment area and mean annual temperature on the demographic rates of 24 understory bird species. The population growth rates of two-thirds of species were negatively associated with at least one of the stressors, and, overall, population growth rates were 12-20 % lower in the warmest year compared to the coolest year, depending on fragment size. When temperature and fragment area were combined in models of recruitment, survival, and population growth, their effects were more frequently interactive than additive, however these interactions were rarely synergistic. Independently, temperature also received more model support than fragment area and tended to have a greater impact on demographic rates across species. Despite the complexity of the interactions between fragment area and temperature, their total effects on tropical bird demographic rates were largely detrimental. The development of effective conservation strategies for montane tropical bird species needs to account for these combined impacts.

Diversity and relative abundance of bird species in the two habitat types of Dokima forest Awi zone, Ethiopia

Birds are the most widespread vertebrate group, as they can be found in practically every type of habitat. However, lack of knowledge on bird ecology in Afrotropical highlands and bird habitat degradation are the main problems that is why this research was studied. The study was conducted in Awi zone, Amhara National Regional State with the objective of the diversity and relative abundance of bird species in the two habitat types of Dokima forest in Awi zone, Ethiopia. Between November 2018 and December 2020, the transect method was conducted in both dry and wet seasons. Using one-way ANOVA, the effect of seasons and habitats on species richness and abundance was investigated and compared. In both the dry and wet seasons, a total of 2233 individuals, 47 species belonging to 35 families, and 14 orders were recorded. The abundance of bird species was not statistically differed between habitat types in the dry season, but it was statistically significantly in the wet season. The mean abundance of bird species differed significantly between the dry and wet seasons. In the dry season, the forest habitat type had the highest species diversity index (H' = 3.18) and the highest evenness (J = 0.94), while in the wet season, the forest habitat type had the highest evenness (J = 0.94). These habitats must be conserved in order to protect the birds that live in the area.

Diversity and relative abundance of bird species in the two habitat types of Dokima forest Awi zone, Ethiopia

Birds are the most widespread vertebrate group, as they can be found in practically every type of habitat. However, lack of knowledge on bird ecology in Afrotropical highlands and bird habitat degradation are the main problems that is why this research was studied. The study was conducted in Awi zone, Amhara National Regional State with the objective of the diversity and relative abundance of bird species in the two habitat types of Dokima forest in Awi zone, Ethiopia. Between November 2018 and December 2020, the transect method was conducted in both dry and wet seasons. Using one-way ANOVA, the effect of seasons and habitats on species richness and abundance was investigated and compared. In both the dry and wet seasons, a total of 2233 individuals, 47 species belonging to 35 families, and 14 orders were recorded. The abundance of bird species was not statistically differed between habitat types in the dry season, but it was statistically significantly in the wet season. The mean abundance of bird species differed significantly between the dry and wet seasons. In the dry season, the forest habitat type had the highest species diversity index (H’ = 3.18) and the highest evenness (J = 0.94), while in the wet season, the forest habitat type had the highest evenness (J = 0.94). These habitats must be conserved in order to protect the birds that live in the area.

Ecological Correlates of Elevational Range Shifts in Tropical Birds

Globally, birds have been shown to respond to climate change by shifting their elevational distributions. This phenomenon is especially prevalent in the tropics, where elevational gradients are often hotspots of diversity and endemism. Empirical evidence has suggested that elevational range shifts are far from uniform across species, varying greatly in the direction (upslope vs. downslope) and rate of change (speed of elevational shift). However, little is known about the drivers of these variable responses to climate change, limiting our ability to accurately project changes in the future. Here, we compile empirical estimates of elevational shift rates (m/yr) for 421 bird species from eight study sites across the tropics. On average, species shifted their mean elevations upslope by 1.63 ± 0.30 m/yr, their upper limits by 1.62 m ± 0.38 m/yr, and their lower limits by 2.81 ± 0.42 m/yr. Upslope shift rates increased in smaller-bodied, less territorial species, whereas larger species were more likely to shift downslope. When considering absolute shift rates, rates were fastest for species with high dispersal ability, low foraging strata, and wide elevational ranges. Our results indicate that elevational shift rates are associated with species’ traits, particularly body size, dispersal ability, and territoriality. However, these effects vary substantially across sites, suggesting that responses of tropical montane bird communities to climate change are complex and best predicted within the local or regional context.

Afrotropical montane birds experience upslope shifts and range contractions along a fragmented elevational gradient in response to global warming

Global warming is predicted to result in upslope shifts in the elevational ranges of bird species in montane habitats. Yet few studies have examined changes over time in the elevational distribution of species along fragmented gradients in response to global warming. Here, we report on a resurvey of an understory bird community in the Usambara Mountains in Tanzania, along a forested elevational gradient that has been fragmented over the last 200 years. In 2019, we resurveyed seven sites, ranging in elevation from 360 m to 2110 m, that were originally surveyed between 1979 and 1981. We calculated differences in mean elevation and lower and upper range limits for 29 species between the two time periods and corrected for possible differences in elevation due to chance. Over four decades, we documented a significant mean upslope shift across species of 93 m. This shift was smaller than the 125 m expected shift due to local climate warming. Of the 29 focal species, 19 shifted upslope, eight downslope, and two remained unchanged. Mean upslope shifts in species were driven largely by contracting lower range limits which moved significantly upslope on average across species by 183 m, while upper range limits shifted non-significantly upslope by 72 m, leading to a mean range contraction of 114 m across species. Community composition of understory bird species also shifted over time, with current communities resembling communities found historically at lower elevations. Past forest fragmentation in combination with the limited gap-crossing ability of many tropical understory bird species are very likely important contributory factors to the observed asymmetrical shifts in lower and upper elevational range limits. Re-establishing forested linkages among the largest and closest forest fragments in the Eastern Arc Mountains are critical to permitting species to shift upslope and to reduce further elevational range contractions over time.

Camera trapping reveals a diverse and unique high-elevation mammal community under threat

The Cerros del Sira in Peru is known to hold a diverse composition of endemic birds, amphibians and plants as a result of its geographical isolation, yet its mammalian community remains poorly known. There is increasing awareness of the threats to high-elevation species but studying them is often hindered by rugged terrain. We present the first camera-trap study of the mammal community of the Cerros del Sira. We used 45 camera traps placed at regular elevational intervals over 800–1,920 m, detecting 34 medium-sized and large mammal species. Eight are listed as threatened on the IUCN Red List, three are categorized as Data Deficient and one is yet to be assessed. Although other authors have reported that the upper elevations of the Cerros del Sira are free from hunting, we found evidence of hunting activity occurring above 1,400 m, and inside the core protected area. In addition to this direct evidence of hunting, recent information has identified significant amounts of canopy loss in the northern reaches of the core zone. Despite widespread ecological degradation in the surrounding lowlands, the high-elevation areas of the Cerros del Sira still maintain a unique assemblage of lowland and highland tropical rainforest mammals. It has been assumed that the Cerros del Sira and other similar remote locations are safe from disturbance and protected by their isolation but we suggest this is an increasingly dangerous assumption to make, and secure protection strategies need to be developed.

Identifying island safe havens to prevent the extinction of the World's largest lizard from global warming

The Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis) is an endangered, island‐endemic species with a naturally restricted distribution. Despite this, no previous studies have attempted to predict the effects of climate change on this iconic species. We used extensive Komodo dragon monitoring data, climate, and sea‐level change projections to build spatially explicit demographic models for the Komodo dragon. These models project the species’ future range and abundance under multiple climate change scenarios. We ran over one million model simulations with varying model parameters, enabling us to incorporate uncertainty introduced from three main sources: (a) structure of global climate models, (b) choice of greenhouse gas emission trajectories, and (c) estimates of Komodo dragon demographic parameters. Our models predict a reduction in range‐wide Komodo dragon habitat of 8%–87% by 2050, leading to a decrease in habitat patch occupancy of 25%–97% and declines of 27%–99% in abundance across the species' range. We show that the risk of extirpation on the two largest protected islands in Komodo National Park (Rinca and Komodo) was lower than other island populations, providing important safe havens for Komodo dragons under global warming. Given the severity and rate of the predicted changes to Komodo dragon habitat patch occupancy (a proxy for area of occupancy) and abundance, urgent conservation actions are required to avoid risk of extinction. These should, as a priority, be focused on managing habitat on the islands of Komodo and Rinca, reflecting these islands’ status as important refuges for the species in a warming world. Variability in our model projections highlights the importance of accounting for uncertainties in demographic and environmental parameters, structural assumptions of global climate models, and greenhouse gas emission scenarios when simulating species metapopulation dynamics under climate change.

Different responses of taxonomic and functional bird diversity to forest fragmentation across an elevational gradient

Many studies have investigated how habitat fragmentation affects the taxonomic and functional diversity of species assemblages. However, the joint effects of habitat fragmentation and environmental conditions on taxonomic and functional diversity, for instance across elevational gradients, have largely been neglected so far. In this study, we compare whether taxonomic and functional indicators show similar or distinct responses to forest fragmentation across an elevational gradient. We based our analysis on a comprehensive data set of species-rich bird assemblages from tropical montane forest in the Southern Andes of Ecuador. We monitored birds over 2 years in two habitat types (continuous and fragmented forest) at three elevations (i.e., 1000, 2000, and 3000 m a.s.l) and measured nine morphological traits for each bird species on museum specimens. Bird species richness and abundance were significantly higher in fragmented compared to continuous forests and decreased towards high elevations. In contrast, functional diversity was significantly reduced in fragmented compared to continuous forests at low elevations, but fragmentation effects on functional diversity tended to be reversed at high elevations. Our results demonstrate that taxonomic and functional indicators can show decoupled responses to forest fragmentation and that these effects are highly variable across elevations. Our findings reveal that functional homogenization in bird communities in response to fragmentation can be masked by apparent increases in taxonomic diversity, particularly in diverse communities at low elevations.

Measuring the impact of the pet trade on Indonesian birds

The trade in wild animals involves one-third of the world's bird species and thousands of other vertebrate species. Although a few species are imperiled as a result of the wildlife trade, the lack of field studies makes it difficult to gauge how serious a threat it is to biodiversity. We used data on changes in bird abundances across space and time and information from trapper interviews to evaluate the effects of trapping wild birds for the pet trade in Sumatra, Indonesia. To analyze changes in bird abundance over time, we used data gathered over 14 years of repeated bird surveys in a 900-ha forest in southern Sumatra. In northern Sumatra, we surveyed birds along a gradient of trapping accessibility, from the edge of roads to 5 km into the forest interior. We interviewed 49 bird trappers in northern Sumatra to learn which species they targeted and how far they went into the forest to trap. We used prices from Sumatran bird markets as a proxy for demand and, therefore, trapping pressure. Market price was a significant predictor of species declines over time in southern Sumatra (e.g., given a market price increase of approximately $50, the log change in abundance per year decreased by 0.06 on average). This result indicates a link between the market-based pet trade and community-wide species declines. In northern Sumatra, price and change in abundance were not related to remoteness (distance from the nearest road). However, based on our field surveys, high-value species were rare or absent across this region. The median maximum distance trappers went into the forest each day was 5.0 km. This suggests that trapping has depleted bird populations across our remoteness gradient. We found that less than half of Sumatra's remaining forests are >5 km from a major road. Our results suggest that trapping for the pet trade threatens birds in Sumatra. Given the popularity of pet birds across Southeast Asia, additional studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and magnitude of the threat posed by the pet trade.

Population Trends of Central European Montane Birds Provide Evidence for Adverse Impacts of Climate Change on High-Altitude Species

Climate change is among the most important global threats to biodiversity and mountain areas are supposed to be under especially high pressure. Although recent modelling studies suggest considerable future range contractions of montane species accompanied with increased extinction risk, data allowing to test actual population consequences of the observed climate changes and identifying traits associated to their adverse impacts are very scarce. To fill this knowledge gap, we estimated long-term population trends of montane birds from 1984 to 2011 in a central European mountain range, the Giant Mountains (Krkonoše), where significant warming occurred over this period. We then related the population trends to several species' traits related to the climate change effects. We found that the species breeding in various habitats at higher altitudes had more negative trends than species breeding at lower altitudes. We also found that the species moved upwards as a response to warming climate, and these altitudinal range shifts were associated with more positive population trends at lower altitudes than at higher altitudes. Moreover, long-distance migrants declined more than residents or species migrating for shorter distances. Taken together, these results indicate that the climate change, besides other possible environmental changes, already influences populations of montane birds with particularly adverse impacts on high-altitude species such as water pipit (Anthus spinoletta). It is evident that the alpine species, predicted to undergo serious climatically induced range contractions due to warming climate in the future, already started moving along this trajectory.

Yet another empty forest: considering the conservation value of a recently established tropical nature reserve

The primary approach used to conserve tropical biodiversity is in the establishment of protected areas. However, many tropical nature reserves are performing poorly and interventions in the broader landscape may be essential for conserving biodiversity both within reserves and at large. Between October 2010 and 2012, we conducted bird surveys in and around a recently established nature reserve in Xishuangbanna, China. We constructed a checklist of observed species, previously recorded species, and species inferred to have occurred in the area from their distributions and habitat requirements. In addition, we assessed variation in community composition and habitat specificity at a landscape-scale. Despite the fact that the landscape supports a large area of natural forest habitat (~50,000 ha), we estimate that >40% of the bird fauna has been extirpated and abundant evidence suggests hunting is the primary cause. A large proportion (52%) of the bigger birds (>20 cm) were extirpated and for large birds there was a U-shaped relationship between habitat breadth and extirpation probability. Habitat specificity was low and bird communities were dominated by widespread species of limited conservation concern. We question whether extending tropical protected area networks will deliver desired conservation gains, unless much greater effort is channeled into addressing the hunting problem both within existing protected areas and in the broader landscape.

A new species of Muscicapa flycatcher from Sulawesi, Indonesia

The Indonesian island of Sulawesi, a globally important hotspot of avian endemism, has been relatively poorly studied ornithologically, to the extent that several new bird species from the region have been described to science only recently, and others have been observed and photographed, but never before collected or named to science. One of these is a new species of Muscicapa flycatcher that has been observed on several occasions since 1997. We collected two specimens in Central Sulawesi in 2012, and based on a combination of morphological, vocal and genetic characters, we describe the new species herein, more than 15 years after the first observations. The new species is superficially similar to the highly migratory, boreal-breeding Gray-streaked Flycatcher Muscicapa griseisticta, which winters in Sulawesi; however, the new species differs strongly from M. griseisticta in several morphological characters, song, and mtDNA. Based on mtDNA, the new species is only distantly related to M. griseisticta, instead being a member of the M. dauurica clade. The new species is evidently widely distributed in lowland and submontane forest throughout Sulawesi. This wide distribution coupled with the species' apparent tolerance of disturbed habitats suggests it is not currently threatened with extinction.