Similar but not equivalent: ecological niche comparison across closely–related M exican white pines

G-space versus E-space: Are hornets (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) at equilibrium with honeybees in Asia?

This study delves into the concept of niche conservatism (NC) and its implications for how hornets (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) and honeybees respond to climate change. Our primary objectives are threefold: firstly, to assess whether distinct environmental niche spaces (E-space) exist between 12 hornets and honeybees like Apis cerana and Apis mellifera in Asia; Secondly, to explore the degree to which Asian hornets have attained geographic equilibrium alongside honeybee species. Lastly, is to investigate how the geographic niche overlap (G-space) between hornets and honeybees could potentially change under climate change scenarios. To accomplish these goals, we employed ordination and ecological niche modeling techniques to analyze 91 pairs of hornets and honeybees in both geographic (G-space) and environmental (E-space) contexts. Then, we projected the potential impacts of climate change on the future geographic overlap between hornets and honeybees, specifically under the SSP585 climate scenario for the year 2070. Our results demonstrated that the environmental niches (E-space) of hornets and honeybees can be treated as interchangeable, indicating they have similar environmental preferences despite being unrelated taxa. We found that Vespa velutina currently exhibits a moderate geographic niche overlap (G-space) of 0.63 with both honeybee species. Meanwhile, Vespa mandarinia demonstrates an overlap of 0.46 with Apis cerana and 0.63 with Apis mellifera. The overlap of Vespa velutina with Apis cerana might potentially decrease to 0.51 and 0.56 with Apis mellifera. For Vespa mandarinia, the overlap could reach 0.41 with Apis cerana and 0.6 with Apis mellifera under a climate change scenario. This study indicates that the limited spatial overlap between honeybees and hornets across certain areas in Asia is more likely influenced by geographical barriers rather than solely environmental unsuitability for hornets. In this study, we delve into the concept of niche conservatism (NC) and its implications for how hornets (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) and honeybees respond to climate change.

Unraveling climatic niche evolution: Insights into the geographical distribution of the neotropical social wasp genus Synoeca (Hymenoptera, Vespidae, Epiponini)

Niche evolution refers to the process by which species undergo changes in ecological interactions, as well as their ability to disperse over time. Our study focuses on the widely distributed neotropical genus of social wasps, Synoeca (Hymenoptera, Vespidae, Epiponini). We use ecological niche modeling to investigate the niche evolution of this insects, to explore how species have evolved within and across distinct environmental boundaries, as well as to explore the overlap, equivalence, and similarity between their niches. Our analysis of Predicted Niche Occupancy reveals that species occupy heterogeneous niches in relation to temperature, precipitation, and altitude, similar to the patterns observed in the analysis of the evolutionary history of climate tolerances, which shows that species have evolved to occupy distinct niche ranges. In addition, our niche comparisons indicate that the species do not share similar niches with each other. All these results suggest that Phylogenetic Niche Conservatism may be playing a significant role as a process contributing to the allopatric pattern observed in this genus. This study represents the first investigation of niche evolution in Vespidae, providing valuable insights for future research into the evolutionary dynamics of insects.

Identifying Areas of Invasion Risk and Changes in the Ecological Niche Occupied by the Coffee Leaf Miner Leucoptera coffeella (Lepidoptera: Lyonetiidae)

Insects of economic importance such as Leucoptera coffeella can cause high defoliation in plants and reduce crop yields. We aimed to identify changes in the ecological niche and potential zones of the invasion. Occurrence records were obtained from databases and bibliography. WorldClim V2.0 bioclimatic layers were used. For the modeling of the potential distribution, the kuenm R package was used by executing the Maxent algorithm. The potential distribution models suggested greatest environmental suitability extends from Europe, South Asia, and Central and South Africa, showing the "tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests" as the ecoregion that presents the greatest probability of the presence of L. coffeella. The potential distribution model projected in the invaded area agrees with the known distribution in the region (America), although the results show that it is occupying environmental spaces not present in the area of origin. This species presented a large proportion of the invaded niche that overlaps the native niche and is colonizing new environmental conditions in the invaded area relative to its native distribution (Africa). This information could be used in the planning of coffee crops on the American continent.

Expanding the Distribution of Prosthechea jauana (Orchidaceae) in the Pantepui and Highlighting the Urgent Need for Conservation Strategies in the Region in Face of Climate Change

Prosthechea jauana has been recognized as an orchid species endemic to the Venezuelan tepui. The first record of P. jauana in Brazil is presented here, also from a tepui in the Southern phytogeographical district of Pantepui in the Serra do Aracá, at the northern border of the Amazonas state. A detailed morphological description and images of the specimen are presented, as well as an updated distribution map, preliminary conservation status assessment, and taxonomic notes about the species. In addition, we provide species' distribution models for P. jauana based on current and future bioclimatic data. Future projections suggest that the geographic distribution of P. jauana will likely be severely affected, with ~79% of its suitable habitat being reduced by 2041-2060 and ~92% by 2061-2080. Prosthechea jauana could represent a flag species and an example of how climate change may affect the endemic Pantepui flora.

Insights from the past: Invasion trajectory and niche trends of a global freshwater invader

Freshwater ecosystems are invaded by a non-random selection of taxa, among which crayfish stand out with successful examples worldwide. Species distribution models (SDMs) have been used to detect suitable areas for invasive species and predict their potential distributions. However, these prediction exercises assume the stability of realized environmental niches, which is uncertain during invasion. Worldwide evaluations involving cosmopolitan invaders may be particularly useful but have seldom been considered. Focusing on the successful invasion history of the red swamp crayfish, Procambarus clarkii, we assessed its geographic expansion and niche trends over time. Based on global occurrences from 1854 to 2022, multiple sequential SDMs have been implemented based on a set of bioclimatic variables. The environmental suitability for each period was projected through to the next period(s) using an ensemble procedure of commonly used SDM algorithms. As the records of the species are known, it was possible to check whether the modelling projections were concordant with the observed expansion of red swamp crayfish at a global scale. This also permitted analysis of its realized niche, and its dynamics, during different expansion phases. SDM maps based on past species records showed concordance with the known crayfish distributions and yielded similar spatial patterns with outputs overperforming random combinations of cells in term of suitability. The results also reflect the stability of the species niche, which despite some expansions during the invasion process, changed little in terms of main position in functional space over time. SDMs developed in the early stages of invasion provide useful insights but also tend to underpredict the potential range compared to models that were built for later stages. Our approach can be easily transferable to other well-documented taxa and represents valuable evidence for validating the use of SDMs, considering a highly dynamic world where biogeographical barriers are often bypassed.

Climate change impacts the distribution of Quercus section Cyclobalanopsis (Fagaceae), a keystone lineage in East Asian evergreen broadleaved forests

East Asian evergreen broadleaved forests (EBFLs) harbor high species richness, but these ecosystems are severely impacted by global climate change and deforestation. Conserving and managing EBLFs requires understanding dominant tree distribution dynamics. In this study, we used 29 species in Quercus section Cyclobalanopsis-a keystone lineage in East Asian EBLFs-as proxies to predict EBLF distribution dynamics using species distribution models (SDMs). We examined climatic niche overlap, similarity, and equivalency among seven biogeographical regions' species using 'ecospat'. We also estimated the effectiveness of protected areas in the predicted range to elucidate priority conservation regions. Our results showed that the climatic niches of most geographical groups differ. The western species under the Indian summer monsoon regime were mainly impacted by temperature factors, whereas precipitation impacted the eastern species under the East Asian summer monsoon regime. Our simulation predicted a northward range expansion of section Cyclobalanopsis between 2081 and 2100, except for the ranges of the three Himalayan species analyzed, which might shrink significantly. The greatest shift of highly suitable areas was predicted for the species in the South Pacific, with a centroid shift of over 300 km. Remarkably, only 7.56% of suitable habitat is currently inside protected areas, and the percentage is predicted to continue declining in the future. To better conserve Asian EBLFs, establishing nature reserves in their northern distribution ranges, and transplanting the populations with predicted decreasing numbers and degraded habitats to their future highly suitable areas, should be high-priority objectives.

Anthropogenically driven spatial niche partitioning in a large herbivore assemblage

Understanding how human activity can influence species distributions and spatial niche partitioning between sympatric species is a key area of contemporary ecology. Extirpations of large mammalian populations, the result of a 15-year civil war, within the Gorongosa National Park in Mozambique, have been followed by an extended period of restoration. The species-specific recovery of these populations has provided an ideal system to identify how niche partitioning between coexisting species is altered as a consequence of extreme disturbance events. Here, we aimed to understand how distribution patterns of grazing herbivores, as well as spatial niche overlap between them, changed between the pre- and post-war scenarios. We focused on the following four grazer species: buffalo (Syncerus caffer); sable (Hippotragus niger); waterbuck (Kobus ellipsiprymnus); and zebra (Equus quagga). Using long-term aerial survey data, we quantified range size for each species, as well as spatial niche overlap between each species pair, for pre- and post-war periods. Range size of buffalo and zebra decreased drastically from the pre-war period; with both species inhabiting subsets of their historical distribution in the park. Sable and waterbuck have both colonised historically avoided habitat, with waterbuck doubling their pre-war range size. Spatial overlap between all four grazers pre-war was significantly high, indicating niche similarity; however, this decreased in the post-war period, with some species pairs displaying spatial niche dissimilarity. Our findings highlight how population responses to anthropogenic disturbance can result in significant alterations to species' distributions, with consequences for patterns of niche similarity.

Analysis of niche shift and potential suitable distributions of Dendrobium under the impact of global climate change

Dendrobium is a valuable traditional Chinese herb that contains active ingredients such as polysaccharides and alkaloids that have anti-aging, antioxidant, and immunomodulating effects. The appropriate distribution range of Dendrobium should be predicted from the perspective of ecological niche theory in order to preserve and utilize medicinal plant resources. In this study, Dendrobium nobile, Dendrobium officinale, and Dendrobium moniliforme were selected to predict the potential suitable distributions and ecological niche shifts. A comparison of 19 environmental variables of the three Dendrobium species revealed three climatic factors that differed significantly when the species were compared two at a time. The principal component analysis was carried out in order to screen seven climatic factors for ecological niche shift analysis. All three Dendrobium species were found to have a very similar ecological niche, but with a relatively small range of variability regarding certain climatic factors. Finally, the current and future suitable areas for these three Dendrobium species in China were predicted using the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS using the two representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6 and 8.5). Overall, the analysis of the climatic factors' comparisons, niche shift, and current and future suitable areas of these three Dendrobium species provides a basis for medicinal plant resource conservation and utilization, and our methods could be applied to the study of other similar valuable medicinal plants.

Phenomenology and dynamics of competitive ecosystems beyond the niche-neutral regimes

Structure, composition, and stability of ecological populations are shaped by the inter- and intraspecies interactions within their communities. It remains to be fully understood how the interplay of these interactions with other factors, such as immigration, controls the structure, the diversity, and the long-term stability of ecological systems in the presence of noise and fluctuations. We address this problem using a minimal model of interacting multispecies ecological communities that incorporates competition, immigration, and demographic noise. We find that a complete phase diagram exhibits rich behavior with multiple regimes that go beyond the classical "niche" and "neutral" regimes, extending and modifying the "rare biosphere" or "niche-like" dichotomy. In particular, we observe regimes that cannot be characterized as either niche or neutral where a multimodal species abundance distribution is observed. We characterize the transitions between the different regimes and show how these arise from the underlying kinetics of the species turnover, extinction, and invasion. Our model serves as a minimal null model of noisy competitive ecological systems, against which more complex models that include factors such as mutations and environmental noise can be compared.

Ecological Niche and Interspecific Association of Plant Communities in Alpine Desertification Grasslands: A Case Study of Qinghai Lake Basin

The study of niche and interspecific relationships is one of the classical ecological theories. We set up four desertification gradients. The "Levins" and "Pianka" method were used to calculate the species' niche breadth and niche overlap. Interspecies associations were analyzed by the ratio of variance (VR), Chi-square test, association coefficient (AC) and Ochiai index (OI). The results showed that in grasslands with different degrees of desertification, Stellera chromosome (3.90), Thermopsis lanceolate (3.52) and Aster almanacs (3.99) had larger niche widths, which were wide-area species of plant communities in the desertification area. The ecological niches of the same species in different habitats or different species in the same habitat were multi-dimensional. Niche differentiation measured by niche overlap can occur at any community succession stage. Niche width and niche overlap were not always consistent with environmental changes. Moreover, there was no linear relationship between them. The interspecific connection coefficient fluctuated greatly with the environment. The results can provide a reference for the study of plant community competition mechanism and desertification control in desertification land of the study area. We still do not know the mechanism of how the plants were preserved and how the retained plants adapted to the new environment during the desertification process. We can further study these questions in the next step.

Global assessment of three Rumex species reveals inconsistent climatic niche shifts across multiple introduced ranges

Climatic niche shifts occur when species occupy different climates in the introduced range than in their native range. Climatic niche shifts are known to occur across a range of taxa, however we do not currently understand whether climatic niche shifts can consistently be predicted across multiple introduced ranges. Using three congeneric weed species, we investigate whether climatic niche shifts in one introduced range are consistent in other ranges where the species has been introduced. We compared the climatic conditions occupied by Rumex conglomeratus, R. crispus, and R. obtusifolius between their native range (Eurasia) and three different introduced ranges (North America, Australia, New Zealand). We considered metrics of niche overlap, expansion, unfilling, pioneering, and similarity to determine whether climatic niche shifts were consistent across ranges and congeners. We found that the presence and direction of climatic niche shifts was inconsistent between introduced ranges for each species. Within an introduced range, however, niche shifts were qualitatively similar among species. North America and New Zealand experienced diverging niche expansion into drier and wetter climates respectively, whilst the niche was conserved in Australia. This work highlights how unique characteristics of an introduced range and local introduction history can drive different niche shifts, and that comparisons between only the native and one introduced range may misrepresent a species’ capacity for niche shifts. However, predictions of climatic niche shifts could be improved by comparing related species in the introduced range rather than relying on the occupied environments of the native range.

Reduced genetic diversity of freshwater amphipods in rivers with increased levels of anthropogenic organic micropollutants

Anthropogenic chemicals in freshwater environments contribute majorly to ecosystem degradation and biodiversity decline. In particular anthropogenic organic micropollutants (AOM), a diverse group of compounds, including pesticides, pharmaceuticals, and industrial chemicals, can significantly impact freshwater organisms. AOM were found to impact genetic diversity of freshwater species; however, to which degree AOM cause changes in population genetic structure and allelic richness of freshwater macroinvertebrates remains poorly understood. Here, the impact of AOM on genetic diversity of the common amphipod Gammarus pulex (Linnaeus, 1758) (clade E) was investigated on a regional scale. The site‐specific AOM levels and their toxic potentials were determined in water and G. pulex tissue sample extracts for 34 sites along six rivers in central Germany impacted by wastewater effluents and agricultural run‐off. Population genetic parameters were determined for G. pulex from the sampling sites by genotyping 16 microsatellite loci. Genetic differentiation among G. pulex from the studied rivers was found to be associated with geographic distance between sites and to differences in site‐specific concentrations of AOM. The genetic diversity parameters of G. pulex were found to be related to the site‐specific AOM levels. Allelic richness was significantly negatively correlated with levels of AOM in G. pulex tissue (p < 0.003) and was reduced by up to 22% at sites with increased levels of AOM, despite a positive relationship of allelic richness and the presence of waste‐water effluent. In addition, the inbreeding coefficient of G. pulex from sites with toxic AOM levels was up to 2.5 times higher than that of G. pulex from more pristine sites. These results indicate that AOM levels commonly found in European rivers significantly contribute to changes in the genetic diversity of an ecologically relevant indicator species.

Niche Divergence at Intraspecific Level in the Hyrcanian Wood Frog, Rana pseudodalmatina: A Phylogenetic, Climatic, and Environmental Survey

The role of ecological niche divergence in lineage speciation has recently stimulated the interest of evolutionary biologists and ecologists. Phylogenetic analysis has revealed that the Hyrcanian wood frog, Rana pseudodalmatina, has diverged into two western and eastern regional clades (WRC and ERC) within the Hyrcanian forest. The goal of this study was to investigate whether the ecological niches of WRC and ERC are conserved or diverged, as well as to figure out what variables promote niche conservatism or divergence. For this purpose, the maximum entropy model was employed to assess environmental niche modeling in geographical (G) space utilizing climatic and macro-environmental data. The niche overlap, equivalency, and similarity tests based on PCAenv analyses were used to assess niche divergence or conservatism in environmental (E) space. The findings strongly support the hypothesis that WRC and ERC have undergone substantial niche divergence and are constrained by a unique set of climatic and macro-environmental conditions. This study by ecological niche comparisons based on phylogenetic data provides new insights into the exploration of species diversification processes in the Hyrcanian forests.

Assessment and Models of Insect Damage to Cones and Seeds of Pinus strobiformis in the Sierra Madre Occidental, Mexico

Insect damage to cones and seeds has a strong impact on the regeneration of conifer forest ecosystems, with broader implications for ecological and economic services. Lack of control of insect populations can lead to important economic and environmental losses. Pinus strobiformis is the most widespread of the white pines in Mexico and is widely distributed throughout the mountains of northern Mexico. Relatively few studies have examined insect damage to the cones and seeds of these pines, especially in Mexico. In this study, we therefore analyzed insect damage to cones and seeds of P. strobiformis in Mexico by using X-ray and stereomicroscopic analysis. The specific objectives of the study were (a) to characterize insect damage by measuring external and internal cone traits, (b) to assess the health of seeds and cones of P. strobiformis in the Sierra Madre Occidental, Mexico, and (c) to estimate the relative importance of the effects of different environmental variables on cone and seed damage caused by insects. We found that 80% of P. strobiformis seeds and 100% of the tree populations studied had damage caused by insects. Most seeds were affected by Leptoglossus occidentalis, Tetyra bipunctata, Megastigmus albifrons, and the Lepidoptera complex (which includes Apolychrosis synchysis, Cydia latisigna, Eucosma bobana, and Dioryctria abietivorella). The cones of all tree populations were affected by some type of insect damage, with Lepidoptera causing most of the damage (72%), followed by Conophthorus ponderosae (15%), the hemipteran L. occidentalis (7%), and the wasp M. albifrons (6%). The proportion of incomplete seeds in P. strobiformis at the tree level, cone damage by M. albifrons and seed damage in L. occidentalis were associated with various climate and soil variables and with crown dieback. Thus, cone and seed insect damage can be severe and potentially impact seed production in P. strobiformis and the reforestation potential of the species. The study findings will enable managers to better identify insects that cause damage to cone and seeds. In addition, identification of factors associated with damage may be useful for predicting the levels of insect predation on seeds and cones.

Evolution of specialization in a plant-microbial mutualism is explained by the oscillation theory of speciation

Specialization in mutualisms is thought to be a major driver of diversification, but few studies have explored how novel specialization evolves, or its relation to the evolution of other niche axes. A fundamental question is whether generalist interactions evolve to become more specialized (i.e., oscillation hypothesis) or if partner switches evolve without any change in niche breadth (i.e., musical chairs hypothesis). We examined alternative models for the evolution of specialization by estimating the mutualistic, climatic, and edaphic niche breadths of sister plant species, combining phylogenetic, environmental, and experimental data on Acmispon strigosus and Acmispon wrangelianus genotypes across their overlapping ranges in California. We found that specialization along all three niche axes was asymmetric across species, such that the species with broader climatic and edaphic niches, Acmispon strigosus, was also able to gain benefit from and invest in associating with a broader set of microbial mutualists. Our data are consistent with the oscillation model of specialization, and a parallel narrowing of the edaphic, climatic, and mutualistic dimensions of the host species niche. Our findings provide novel evidence that the evolution of specialization in mutualism is accompanied by specialization in other niche dimensions.

Ecological Niches and Suitability Areas of Three Host Pine Species of Bark Beetle Dendroctonus mexicanus Hopkins

Bark beetles are a natural part of coniferous forests. Dendroctonus mexicanus Hopkins is the most widely distributed and most destructive bark beetle in Mexico, colonizing more than 21 pine species. The objectives of this study were to generate ecological niche models for D. mexicanus and three of its most important host species, to evaluate the overlap of climate suitability of the association Dendroctonus–Pinus, and to determine the possible expansion of the bark beetle. We used meticulously cleaned species occurrence records, 15 bioclimatic variables and ‘kuenm’, an R package that uses Maxent as a modeling algorithm. The Dendroctonus–Pinus ecological niches were compared using ordination methods and the kernel density function. We generated 1392 candidate models; not all were statistically significant (α = 0.05). The response type was quadratic; there is a positive correlation between suitability and precipitation, and negative with temperature, the latter determining climatic suitability of the studied species. Indeed, a single variable (Bio 1) contributed 93.9% to the model (Pinus leiophylla Schl. & Cham). The overlap of suitable areas for Dendroctonus–Pinus is 74.95% (P. leiophylla) and on average of 46.66% in ecological niches. It is observed that D. mexicanus begins to expand towards climates not currently occupied by the studied pine species.

Climatic niche comparison between closely related trans-Palearctic species of the genus Orthocephalus (Insecta: Heteroptera: Miridae: Orthotylinae)

Previously climatic niche modelling had been studied for only a few trans-Palearctic species. It is unclear whether and to what extent those niches are different, and which climatic variables influence such a wide distribution. Here, environmental niche modelling is performed based on the Worldclim variables using Maxent for eight species of the genus Orthocephalus (Insecta: Heteroptera: Miridae: Orthotylinae). This group belongs to one of the largest insect families and it is distributed across Palearctic. Orthocephalus bivittatus, O. brevis, O. saltator and O. vittipennis are distributed across Europe and Asia; O. coriaceus, O. fulvipes, O. funestus, O. proserpinae have more limited distribution. Niche comparison using ENMTools was also undertaken to compare the niches of these species, and to test whether the niches of closely related species with trans-Palearctic distributions are more similar to each other, than to other congeners. It has been found that climatic niche models of all trans-Palearctic species under study are similar but are not identical to each other. This has been supported by niche geographic projections, climatic variables contributing to the models and variable ranges. Climatic niche models of all the trans-Palearctic Orthocephalus species are also very similar to two species having more restricted distribution (O. coriaceus, O. funestus). Results of this study suggest that trans-Palearctic distributions can have different geographic ranges and be shaped by different climatic factors.

Closely related species show species-specific environmental responses and different spatial conservation needs: Prionailurus cats in the Indian subcontinent

Phylogenetically closely related species are often assumed to have similar responses to environmental conditions, but species-specific responses have also been described. These two scenarios may have different conservation implications. We tested these two hypotheses for Prionailurus cats (P. rubiginosus, P. bengalensis, P. viverrinus) in the Indian subcontinent and show its implications on species current protected area coverage and climatic suitability trends through time. We fitted ecological niche models with current environmental conditions and calculated niche overlap. In addition, we developed a model for the Jungle Cat Felis chaus to compare species responses and niche overlap estimates within Prionailurus with those for a related sympatric small cat species. Then we estimated the proportion of current suitable environment covered by protected area and projected climatic models from past (last interglacial) to future (2070; RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) conditions to show implications on population management and conservation. The hypothesis of a similar response and niche overlap among closely related species is not supported. Protected area coverage was lowest for P. viverrinus (mean = 0.071, SD = 0.012) and highest for P. bengalensis (mean = 0.088, SD = 0.006). In addition, the proportion of the subcontinent with suitable climate varied through time and was species-specific. For P. bengalensis, climatic suitability shrunk since at least the mid-Holocene, a trend that can be intensified by human-induced climate warming. Concerning P. viverrinus, most predictions show stable future climatic suitability, but a few indicated potential loss. Climatic suitability for P. rubiginous was predicted to remain stable but the species exhibited a negative association with intensive agriculture. Similar responses to environmental change by phylogenetically closely related species should not be assumed and have implications on protected area coverage and natural trends of species climatic suitability over time. This should be taken into account during conservation and management actions.

Morphological Differences in Pinus strobiformis Across Latitudinal and Elevational Gradients

The phenotype of trees is determined by the relationships and interactions among genetic and environmental influences. Understanding the patterns and processes that are responsible for phenotypic variation is facilitated by studying the relationships between phenotype and the environment among many individuals across broad ecological and climatic gradients. We used Pinus strobiformis, which has a wide latitudinal distribution, as a model species to: (a) estimate the relative importance of different environmental factors in predicting these morphological traits and (b) characterize the spatial patterns of standing phenotypic variation of cone and seed traits across the species' range. A large portion of the total variation in morphological characteristics was explained by ecological, climatic and geographical variables (54.7% collectively). The three climate, vegetation and geographical variable groups, each had similar total ability to explain morphological variation (43.4%, 43.8%, 51.5%, respectively), while the topographical variable group had somewhat lower total explanatory power (36.9%). The largest component of explained variance (33.6%) was the four-way interaction of all variable sets, suggesting that there is strong covariation in environmental, climate and geographical variables in their relationship to morphological traits of southwest white pine across its range. The regression results showed that populations in more humid and warmer climates expressed greater cone length and seed size. This may in part facilitate populations of P. strobiformis in warmer and wetter portions of its range growing in dense, shady forest stands, because larger seeds provide greater resources to germinants at the time of germination. Our models provide accurate predictions of morphological traits and important insights regarding the factors that contribute to their expression. Our results indicate that managers should be conservative during reforestation efforts to ensure match between ecotypic variation in seed source populations. However, we also note that given projected large range shift due to climate change, managers will have to balance the match between current ecotypic variation and expected range shift and changes in local adaptive optima under future climate conditions.

Assessing Niche Shifts and Conservatism by Comparing the Native and Post-Invasion Niches of Major Forest Invasive Species

Invasive species experience biotic and abiotic conditions that may (or may not) resemble their native environment. We explored the methodology of determining climatic niches and compared the native and post-invasion niches of four invasive forest pests to determine if these species experienced shifts or changes in their new climatic niches. We used environmental principle components analysis (PCA-env) method to quantify climatic niche shifts, expansions, and temporal changes. Furthermore, we assessed the effect of variable selection in the delineation and comparison of niche space. We found that variable selection influenced the delineation and overlap of each niche, whereas the subset of climatic variables selected from the first two PCA-env axes explained more variance in environmental conditions than the complete set of climatic variables for all four species. Most focal species showed climatic niche shifts in their invasive range and had not yet fully occupied the available niche within the invaded range. Our species varied the proportion of niche overlap between the native and invasive ranges. By comparing native and invasive niches, we can help predict a species’ potential range expansion and invasion potential. Our results can guide monitoring and help inform management of these and other invasive species.

Niche divergence corresponds to genetic differentiation within the parrot-beaked tortoise Homopus areolatus (Reptilia: Testudinidae), endemic to South Africa

We assessed genetic differentiation and habitat suitability for Homopus areolatus during current and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) conditions. The ND4 locus retrieved two monophyletic mtDNA clades with lower diversity in clade 1, in the west, than in clade 2, in the south-east. Clade 1 showed a north–south and clade 2 a west-to-east genetic divergence, and the clades co-occur in the syntaxis zone of the Cape Fold Mountains. The clades occupy distinct niches with limited overlap. Rainfall seasonality contributed most to habitat suitability, with clade 1 being restricted to winter rainfall and clade 2 to all-year rainfall regions. Precipitation variables contributed 90% and 60%, respectively, to habitat suitability of clades 1 and 2, with temperature, particularly mean temperature of the driest quarter, being of greater importance for clade 2 than clade 1. Suitable habitat shrank from the LGM to current conditions, probably due to reduced rainfall in the west and higher temperatures in most regions. We conclude that patterns of genetic divergence are strongly associated with ecological niche divergence of H. areolatus clades. More studies are needed to assess the taxonomic status of clade 1, particularly in view of its shrinking habitat due to climate change and anthropogenic factors.

Biogeographical, ecological, and phylogenetic analyses clarifying the evolutionary history of Calibrachoa in South American grasslands

Calibrachoa is a charismatic South American genus of Solanaceae, closely related to Petunia, which encompasses approximately 30 species. Studies that were based solely on plastid molecular markers indicated the monophyly of the genus and distributed its species in two subgenera; to date no phylogeny has included a broad morphological variants and nuclear markers. Here, we present a phylogenetic analysis based on eight plastid and eight nuclear markers that cover the most extensive geographic distribution for the genus. We use this phylogeny to infer the biogeographic history of the genus and to understand the primary drivers for species diversification. Our results yield a fully supported tree where monophyly is confirmed to genus and subgenera. The species of Stimomphis subgenus that were previously considered uncertain, here emerge in four highly supported clades. The hypothesis of niche conservatism is confirmed, and adaptive radiation explains the species diversification. The lowlands are the most likely ancestral area of the genus, subgenera, and two clades of Stimomphis subgenus. Our results constitute an excellent starting point for further evolutionary and taxonomic studies and explain several uncertain evolutionary relationships in the group and the evolution of their distribution.

Climatic niche comparison across a cryptic species complex

According to current molecular evidence, the Chionaspis pinifoliae heterophyllae species complex has been recognized as 10 cryptic species. In this study, we construct potential distribution maps for seven cryptic species based on climatic variables. This was done to assess the main environmental factors that have contributed to the distribution map and test the degree of niche overlap across the seven cryptic species. We used MaxEnt to build the climatic niche models under climatic variables. For these models, the similarities and differences of the niches across the cryptic species were estimated. By comparing the potential distribution model of each cryptic species, our results suggested parapatric, sympatric and allopatry populations for this cryptic species complex. Our results showed high variability in niche overlap, and more often niche conservatism than niche divergence. The current species delimitation of the Chionaspis pinifoliae heterophyllae complex by molecular information and the hypothesis that the niche overlap in the sympatric population is higher than that of the allopatry population were supported based on the findings. This study will provide baseline data and a distribution range to facilitate the further control of these insects and formulate quarantine measures.

Sympatric and allopatric niche shift of endemic Gypsophila (Caryophyllaceae) taxa in the Iberian Peninsula

Several species of the Gypsophila genus are endemic to the Iberian Peninsula, including gypsophytes of particular ecological, evolutionary and biochemical interest, and taxa that have undergone both sympatric and allopatric genetic differentiation. The niche shift among these taxa has been assessed using ecological niche modelling and ordination techniques, adopting a niche overlap approach to compare the similarity and equivalency of the ecological niches. We used the Maximum Entropy method to study the potential distribution of these taxa in different eras: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Mid Holocene and the current conditions. We present evidence of niche shift during the speciation of G. bermejoi, with a strong niche overlap between the parental taxa (G. struthium subsp. struthium and G. tomentosa), yet both overlap much more weakly with the hybrid species. This phenomenon may be explained by genetic and epigenetic interactions, and it has been described in other species. We also studied the sister subspecies G. struthium subsp. struthium and G. struthium subsp. hispanica, with mostly allopatric distributions and with the Iberian System mountain range acting as a geographical barrier. The Iberian System and other mountain ranges may have favored differences in the climatic conditions on either side of the mountain range, which is consistent with an incipient process of bioclimatic ecological speciation. These results seem to indicate that niche shift can occur over very different timespans. In the case of G. bermejoi, speciation may have produced significant niche shifting in one or two generations due to its alloploid nature. By contrast, G. struthium subsp. struthium and G. struthium subsp. hispanica seem to have undergone a more gradual process of allopatric genetic differentiation driven by bioclimatic factors. Both these processes are relatively recent and they will have been strongly influenced by the climate change at the end of LGM.

Niche conservatism of Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti - two mosquito species with different invasion histories

Biological invasions have been associated with niche changes; however, their occurrence is still debated. We assess whether climatic niches between native and non-native ranges have changed during the invasion process using two globally spread mosquitoes as model species, Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti. Considering the different time spans since their invasions (>300 vs. 30–40 years), niche changes were expected to be more likely for Ae. aegypti than for Ae. albopictus. We used temperature and precipitation variables as descriptors for the realized climatic niches and different niche metrics to detect niche dynamics in the native and non-native ranges. High niche stability, therefore, no niche expansion but niche conservatism was revealed for both species. High niche unfilling for Ae. albopictus indicates a great potential for further expansion. Highest niche occupancies in non-native ranges occurred either under more temperate (North America, Europe) or tropical conditions (South America, Africa). Aedes aegypti has been able to fill its native climatic niche in the non-native ranges, with very low unfilling. Our results challenge the assumption of rapid evolutionary change of climatic niches as a requirement for global invasions but support the use of native range-based niche models to project future invasion risk on a large scale.

Response to climate change of montane herbaceous plants in the genus Rhodiola predicted by ecological niche modelling

Climate change profoundly influences species distributions. These effects are evident in poleward latitudinal range shifts for many taxa, and upward altitudinal range shifts for alpine species, that resulted from increased annual global temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 22,000 BP). For the latter, the ultimate consequence of upward shifts may be extinction as species in the highest alpine ecosystems can migrate no further, a phenomenon often characterized as “nowhere to go”. To predict responses to climate change of the alpine plants on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), we used ecological niche modelling (ENM) to estimate the range shifts of 14 Rhodiola species, beginning with the Last Interglacial (ca. 120,000–140,000 BP) through to 2050. Distributions of Rhodiola species appear to be shaped by temperature-related variables. The southeastern QTP, and especially the Hengduan Mountains, were the origin and center of distribution for Rhodiola, and also served as refugia during the LGM. Under future climate scenario in 2050, Rhodiola species might have to migrate upward and northward, but many species would expand their ranges contra the prediction of the “nowhere to go” hypothesis, caused by the appearance of additional potential habitat concomitant with the reduction of permafrost with climate warming.

A jungle tale: Molecular phylogeny and divergence time estimates of the Desmopsis-Stenanona clade (Annonaceae) in Mesoamerica

The predominantly Asian tribe Miliuseae (Annonaceae) includes over 37 Neotropical species that are mainly distributed across Mesoamerica, from southern Mexico to northern Colombia. The tremendous ecological and morphological diversity of this clade, including ramiflory, cauliflory, flagelliflory, and clonality, suggests adaptive radiation. Despite the spectacular phenotypic divergence of this clade, little is known about its phylogenetic and evolutionary history. In this study we used a nuclear DNA marker and seven chloroplast markers, and maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference methods to reconstruct a comprehensive time-calibrated phylogeny of tribe Miliuseae, especially focusing on the Desmopsis-Stenanona clade. We also perform ancestral area reconstructions to infer the biogeographic history of this group. Finally, we use ecological niche modeling, lineage distribution models, and niche overlap tests to assess whether geographic isolation and ecological specialization influenced the diversification of lineages within this clade. We reconstructed a monophyletic Miliuseae that is divided into two strongly supported clades: (i) a Sapranthus-Tridimeris clade and (ii) a Desmopsis-Stenanona clade. The colonization of the Neotropics and subsequent diversification of Neotropical Miliuseae seems to have been associated with the expansion of the boreotropical forests during the late Eocene and their subsequent fragmentation and southern displacement. Further speciation within Neotropical Miliuseae out of the Maya block seems to have occurred during the last 15 million years. Lastly, the geographic structuring of major lineages of the Desmopsis-Stenanona clade seems to have followed a climatic gradient, supporting the hypothesis that morphological differentiation between closely related species resulted from both long-term isolation between geographic ranges and adaptation to environmental conditions.

Cut from the same cloth: The convergent evolution of dwarf morphotypes of the Carex flava group (Cyperaceae) in Circum-Mediterranean mountains

Plants growing in high-mountain environments may share common morphological features through convergent evolution resulting from an adaptative response to similar ecological conditions. The Carex flava species complex (sect. Ceratocystis, Cyperaceae) includes four dwarf morphotypes from Circum-Mediterranean mountains whose taxonomic status has remained obscure due to their apparent morphological resemblance. In this study we investigate whether these dwarf mountain morphotypes result from convergent evolution or common ancestry, and whether there are ecological differences promoting differentiation between the dwarf morphotypes and their taxonomically related large, well-developed counterparts. We used phylogenetic analyses of nrDNA (ITS) and ptDNA (rps16 and 5'trnK) sequences, ancestral state reconstruction, multivariate analyses of macro- and micromorphological data, and species distribution modeling. Dwarf morphotype populations were found to belong to three different genetic lineages, and several morphotype shifts from well-developed to dwarf were suggested by ancestral state reconstructions. Distribution modeling supported differences in climatic niche at regional scale between the large forms, mainly from lowland, and the dwarf mountain morphotypes. Our results suggest that dwarf mountain morphotypes within this sedge group are small forms of different lineages that have recurrently adapted to mountain habitats through convergent evolution.

Divergence is not enough: the use of ecological niche models for the validation of taxon boundaries

Delimiting taxon boundaries is crucial for any evolutionary research and conservation regulation. In order to avoid mistaken description of species, the approach of integrative taxonomy recommends considering multidisciplinary lines of evidence, including ecology. Unfortunately, ecological data are often difficult to quantify objectively. Here we test and discuss the potential use of ecological niche models for validating taxon boundaries, using three pairs of closely related plant taxa endemic to the south-western Alps as a case study. We also discuss the application of ecological niche models for species delimitation and the implementation of different approaches. Niche overlap, niche equivalency and niche similarity were assessed both in multidimensional environmental space and in geographic space to look for differences in the niche of three pairs of closely related plant taxa. We detected a high degree of niche differentiation between taxa although this result seems not due to differences in habitat selection. The different statistical tests gave contrasting outcomes between environmental and geographic spaces. According to our results, niche divergence does not seem to support taxon boundaries at species level, but may have had important consequences for local adaptation and in generating phenotypic diversity at intraspecific level. Environmental space analysis should be preferred to geographic space as it provides more clear results. Even if the different analyses widely disagree in their conclusions about taxon boundaries, our study suggests that ecological niche models may help taxonomists to reach a decision.

Ecological niche comparison and molecular phylogeny segregate the invasive moss species Campylopus introflexus (Leucobryaceae, Bryophyta) from its closest relatives

The delimitation of the invasive moss species Campylopus introflexus from its closest relative, Campylopus pilifer, has been long debated based on morphology. Previous molecular phylogenetic reconstructions based on the nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacers (ITS) 1 and 2 showed that C. pilifer is split into an Old World and a New World lineage, but remained partly inconclusive concerning the relationships between these two clades and C. introflexus. Analyses of an extended ITS dataset displayed statistically supported incongruence between ITS1 and ITS2. ITS1 separates the New World clade of C. pilifer from a clade comprising C. introflexus and the Old World C. pilifer. Ancestral state reconstruction showed that this topology is morphologically supported by differences in the height of the dorsal costal lamellae in leaf cross-section (despite some overlap). ITS2, in contrast, supports the current morphological species concept, i.e., separating C. introflexus from C. pilifer, which is morphologically supported by the orientation of the hyaline hair point at leaf apex as well as costal lamellae height. Re-analysis of published and newly generated plastid atpB-rbcL spacer sequences supported the three ITS lineages. Ecological niche modeling proved a useful approach and showed that all three molecular lineages occupy distinct environmental spaces that are similar, but undoubtedly not equivalent. In line with the ITS1 topology, the C. pilifer lineage from the New World occupies the most distinct environmental niche, whereas the niches of Old World C. pilifer and C. introflexus are very similar. Taking the inferences from ecological niche comparisons, phylogenetics, and morphology together, we conclude that all three molecular lineages represent different taxa that should be recognized as independent species, viz. C. introflexus, C. pilifer (Old World clade), and the reinstated C. lamellatus Mont. (New World clade).

American trees shift their niches when invading Western Europe: evaluating invasion risks in a changing climate

Four North American trees are becoming invasive species in Western Europe: Acer negundo, Prunus serotina, Quercus rubra, and Robinia pseudoacacia. However, their present and future potential risks of invasion have not been yet evaluated. Here, we assess niche shifts between the native and invasive ranges and the potential invasion risk of these four trees in Western Europe. We estimated niche conservatism in a multidimensional climate space using niche overlap Schoener's D, niche equivalence, and niche similarity tests. Niche unfilling and expansion were also estimated in analogous and nonanalogous climates. The capacity for predicting the opposite range between the native and invasive areas (transferability) was estimated by calibrating species distribution models (SDMs) on each range separately. Invasion risk was estimated using SDMs calibrated on both ranges and projected for 2050 climatic conditions. Our results showed that native and invasive niches were not equivalent with low niche overlap for all species. However, significant similarity was found between the invasive and native ranges of Q. rubra and R. pseudoacacia. Niche expansion was lower than 15% for all species, whereas unfilling ranged from 7 to 56% when it was measured using the entire climatic space and between 5 and 38% when it was measured using analogous climate only. Transferability was low for all species. SDMs calibrated over both ranges projected high habitat suitability in Western Europe under current and future climates. Thus, the North American and Western European ranges are not interchangeable irrespective of the studied species, suggesting that other environmental and/or biological characteristics are shaping their invasive niches. The current climatic risk of invasion is especially high for R. pseudoacacia and A. negundo. In the future, the highest risks of invasion for all species are located in Central and Northern Europe, whereas the risk is likely to decrease in the Mediterranean basin.

What Can an Invasive Dung Beetle Tell Us About Niche Conservatism?

Does climatic niche change during invasion? We used Digitonthophagus gazella (F.) as a model to test the niche conservatism hypothesis and found out that climatic niche was stable between native and invasive ranges of this exotic dung beetle. Distribution maps based either on native or invasive occurrences exhibited the same picture of a widespread dung beetle restricted by areas with low precipitation and cold temperatures. We believe that this species opportunistic behavior is one of the main reasons behind this pattern. We suggest that use of native occurrences to predict a potential risk of biological invasions is a useful tool.

Molecular and Morphological Inference of Three Cryptic Species within the Merodon aureus Species Group (Diptera: Syrphidae)

The Merodon aureus species group (Diptera: Syrphidae: Eristalinae) comprises a number of different sub-groups and species complexes. In this study we focus on resolving the taxonomic status of the entity previously identified as M. cinereus B, here identified as M. atratus species complex. We used an integrative approach based on morphological descriptions, combined with supporting characters that were obtained from molecular analyses of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase I gene as well as from geometric morphometry of wing and surstylus shapes and environmental niche comparisons. All applied data and methods distinguished and supported three morphologically cryptic species: M. atratus stat. nov., M. virgatus sp. nov. and M. balkanicus sp. nov., which constitute the M. atratus species complex. We present an identification key for the sub-groups and species complexes of the M. aureus species group occurring in Europe, describe the taxa and discuss the utility of the applied methods for species delimitation. The estimated divergence times for the species splits of these taxa coincide with the Pleistocene Günz-Mindel interglaciation and the Great interglaciation (between the Ris and Mindel glacial periods).

Mapping the ecological dimensions and potential distributions of endangered relic shrubs in western Ordos biodiversity center

Potential distributions of endemic relic shrubs in western Ordos were poorly mapped, which hindered our implementation of proper conservation. Here we investigated the applicability of ecological niche modeling for endangered relic shrubs to detect areas of priority for biodiversity conservation and analyze differences in ecological niche spaces used by relic shrubs. We applied ordination and niche modeling techniques to assess main environmental drivers of five endemic relic shrubs in western Ordos, namely, Ammopiptanthus mongolicus, Amygdalus mongolica, Helianthemum songaricum, Potaninia mongolica, and Tetraena mongolica. We calculated niche overlap metrics in gridded environmental spaces and compared geographical projections of ecological niches to determine similarities and differences of niches occupied by relic shrubs. All studied taxa presented different responses to environmental factors, which resulted in a unique combination of niche conditions. Precipitation availability and soil quality characteristics play important roles in the distributions of most shrubs. Each relic shrub is constrained by a unique set of environmental conditions, the distribution of one species cannot be implied by the distribution of another, highlighting the inadequacy of one-fits-all type of conservation measure. Our stacked habitat suitability maps revealed regions around Yellow River, which are highly suitable for most species, thereby providing high conservation value.