Projecting global land use-driven evolutionary history loss

Recent Developments and Challenges in Projecting the Impact of Crop Productivity Growth on Biodiversity Considering Market-Mediated Effects

The effect of an increase in crop productivity (output per unit of inputs) on biodiversity is hitherto poorly understood. This is because increased productivity of a crop in particular regions leads to increased profit that can encourage expansion of its cultivated area causing land use change and ultimately biodiversity loss, a phenomenon also known as "Jevons paradox" or the "rebound effect". Modeling such consequences in an interconnected and globalized world considering such rebound effects is challenging. Here, we discuss the use of computable general equilibrium (CGE) and other economic models in combination with ecological models to project consequences of crop productivity improvements for biodiversity globally. While these economic models have the advantage of taking into account market-mediated responses, resource constraints, endogenous price responses, and dynamic bilateral patterns of trade, there remain a number of important research and data gaps in these models which must be addressed to improve their performance in assessment of the link between local crop productivity changes and global biodiversity. To this end, we call for breaking the silos and building interdisciplinary networks across the globe to facilitate data sharing and knowledge exchange in order to improve global-to-local-to-global analysis of land, biodiversity, and ecosystem sustainability.

The effectiveness of a large protected area to conserve a global endemism hotspot may vanish in the face of climate and land-use changes

Endemic vertebrates are a crucial component of biodiversity, yet face disproportionally high extinction risk as climate and land-use changes drive habitat loss. Large protected areas are therefore deemed necessary to mitigate biodiversity loss. In 2021, China’s Giant Panda National Park (GPNP, 27,134 km2) was established in one of the global endemism hotspots. In this study we ask the question whether this large national park is able to conserve the many threatened endemic vertebrates occurring in the region in the face of climate and land-use changes, in order to assess the long-term effectiveness of the GPNP. We used species distribution modeling techniques to project the distributions of 40 threatened terrestrial (and freshwater) endemic vertebrates under land-use and climate change scenarios SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5 in 2081–2100, and assessed the extent to which their distributions are covered by the GPNP, now and in the future. We found that by 2081–2100, two thirds of the threatened endemic vertebrates are predicted to lose part (15–79%, N = 4) of or (nearly) their entire (80–100% loss, N = 23) range under all three climate and land-use change scenarios. Consequently, fewer species are predicted to occur in the GPNP than at present. Our findings confirm the high vulnerability of threatened endemic species to climate and land-use changes, despite protected areas. Habitat loss due to climate and land-use changes elevate extinction risk of species in endemism hotspots across the globe. Urgent, widespread and intensified mitigation measures and adaptation measures are required at a landscape scale for effective conservation efforts in the future.

Contrasting effects of the COVID-19 lockdown on urban birds' reproductive success in two cities

The ubiquitous activity of humans is a fundamental feature of urban environments affecting local wildlife in several ways. Testing the influence of human disturbance would ideally need experimental approach, however, in cities, this is challenging at relevant spatial and temporal scales. Thus, to better understand the ecological effects of human activity, we exploited the opportunity that the city-wide lockdowns due to the COVID-19 pandemic provided during the spring of 2020. We assessed changes in reproductive success of great tits (Parus major) at two urban habitats affected strikingly differently by the ‘anthropause’, and at an unaffected forest site. Our results do not support that urban great tits benefited from reduced human mobility during the lockdown. First, at one of our urban sites, the strongly (− 44%) reduced human disturbance in 2020 (compared to a long-term reference period) did not increase birds’ reproductive output relative to the forest habitat where human disturbance was low in all years. Second, in the other urban habitat, recreational human activity considerably increased (+ 40%) during the lockdown and this was associated with strongly reduced nestling body size compared to the pre-COVID reference year. Analyses of other environmental factors (meteorological conditions, lockdown-induced changes in air pollution) suggest that these are not likely to explain our results. Our study supports that intensified human disturbance can have adverse fitness consequences in urban populations. It also highlights that a few months of ‘anthropause’ is not enough to counterweight the detrimental impacts of urbanization on local wildlife populations.

Influence of urbanization on stream fish assemblages in three microbasins in the Upper Paraná River Basin

The colonization pattern of fish assemblages in streams is often studied in the context of environmental filters. On the other hand, when fish assemblages are subjected to anthropogenic effects, variables associated with environmental quality assume more importance. Therefore, this work evaluated the richness and composition of fish from streams sampled at different urbanization levels, aiming to determine any direct effects on the structure of fish assemblages. To accomplish this, samples were collected from 2003 to 2011 at 31 sites distributed among 3 microbasins in the Rio Ivinhema Basin, Alto Rio Paraná. Based on environmental variables, physicochemical of the water and analysis of the use and occupation of the soil, the microbasins were classified into different urbanization levels (low, medium and high). A total of 4,320 individuals were sampled, out of which 57 fish species were recorded. Sampled sites with medium urbanization level presented higher richness compared to sampled sites with high urbanization level which presented lower richness. Species richness in these sites was explained mainly by water temperature and water velocity. Results confirmed that urbanization does directly affect environmental integrity, which, in turn, can lead to the homogenization of stream assemblages.

Salinity increases growth and pathogenicity of water mold to cause mortality and early hatching in Rana sylvatica embryos

Amphibian embryos often suffer increased mortality and altered hatching when exposed to road deicing salt runoff or pathogens such as water molds. However, the combined effects of such contaminants on embryos remain understudied. To test how pond salinization interacts with water mold (Saprolegniasp.) to influence hatching timing and survival, we first measured pond water conductivity and temperature and quantified the prevalence and abundance of water mold in four ponds in an ecological preserve. Second, we experimentally placed wood frog (Rana sylvatica) embryos in the presence or absence of water mold, crossed with environmentally realistic salt concentrations (100, 300 or 600 μS). Lastly, we quantified growth and colonization of water mold in this range of salinities. Our results demonstrate that salt had synergistic effects with water mold exposure that affected hatching time, though water mold had less of an effect at higher salinities. Water mold significantly reduced egg survival whereas salt did not. Higher salinities also increased water mold growth and colonization on new substrates. These results indicate that road salt runoff may enhance colonization of amphibian eggs by water molds increasing mortality and premature hatching of surviving embryos, which may in turn have detrimental effects on amphibian communities.

Food availability limits avian reproduction in the city: An experimental study on great tits Parus major

The altered ecological and environmental conditions in towns and cities strongly affect demographic traits of urban animal populations, for example avian reproductive success is often reduced. Previous work suggests that this is partly driven by low insect availability during the breeding season, but robust experimental evidence that supports this food limitation hypothesis is not yet available. We tested core predictions of the food limitation hypothesis using a controlled experiment that provided supplementary insect food (nutritionally enhanced mealworms supplied daily to meet 40%-50% of each supplemented brood's food requirements) to great tit nestlings in urban and forest habitats. We measured parental provisioning rates and estimated the amount of supplementary food consumed by control and experimental nestlings, and assessed their body size and survival rates. Provisioning rates were similar across habitats and control and supplemented broods, but supplemented (and not control) broods consumed large quantities of supplementary food. As predicted by the food limitation hypothesis we found that nestlings in (a) urban control broods had smaller body size and nestling survival rates than those in forest control broods; (b) forest supplemented and control broods had similar body size and survival rates; (c) urban supplemented nestlings had larger body size and survival rates than those in urban control broods; and crucially (d) urban supplemented broods had similar body size and survival rates to nestlings in forest control broods. Our results provide rare experimental support for the strong negative effects of food limitation during the nestling rearing period on urban birds' breeding success. Furthermore, the fact that supplementary food almost completely eliminated habitat differences in survival rate and nestling body size suggest that urban stressors other than food shortage contributed relatively little to the reduced avian breeding success. Finally, given the impacts of the amount of supplementary food that we provided and taking clutch size differences into account, our results suggest that urban insect populations in our study system would need to be increased by a factor of at least 2.5 for urban and forest great tits to have similar reproductive success.

Country-Specific Sustainable Diets Using Optimization Algorithm

Current diets of most nations either do not meet the nutrition recommendations or transgress environmental planetary boundaries or both. Transitioning toward sustainable diets that are nutritionally adequate and low in environmental impact is key in achieving the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals. However, designing region-specific sustainable diets that are culturally acceptable is a formidable challenge. Recent studies have suggested that optimization algorithms offer a potential solution to the above challenge, but the evidence is mostly based on case studies from high-income nations using widely varying constraints and algorithms. Here, we employ nonlinear optimization modeling with a consistent study design to identify diets for 152 countries that meet four cultural acceptability constraints, five food-related per capita environmental planetary boundaries (carbon emissions, water, land, nitrogen, and phosphorus use), and the daily recommended levels for 29 nutrients. The results show that a considerable departure from current dietary behavior is required for all countries. The required changes in intake amounts of 221 food items are highly country-specific but in general point toward a need to reduce the intake of meat, dairy, rice, and sugar and an increase in fruits, vegetables, pulses, nuts, and other grains. The constraints for fiber, vitamin B12, vitamin E, and saturated fats and the planetary boundaries for carbon emissions and nitrogen application were the most difficult to meet, suggesting the need to pay special attention to them. The analysis demonstrates that nonlinear optimization is a powerful tool to design diets achieving multiple objectives.

Dietary Change Scenarios and Implications for Environmental, Nutrition, Human Health and Economic Dimensions of Food Sustainability

Demand side interventions, such as dietary change, can significantly contribute towards the achievement of 2030 national sustainable development goals. However, most previous studies analysing the consequences of dietary change focus on a single dimension of sustainability (e.g., environment) using a limited number of indicators and dietary scenarios. A multi-dimension and multi-indicator analysis can identify the potential trade-offs. Here, starting from the current food consumption data (year 2011), we first designed nine alternative dietary scenarios (healthy Swiss diet, healthy global diet, vegetarian, vegan, pescatarian, flexitarian, protein-oriented and meat-oriented diets and a food greenhouse gas tax diet). Next we calculated three nutritional quality (nutrient balance score, disqualifying nutrient score, percent population with adequate nutrition), five environmental (greenhouse gas, water, land, nitrogen and phosphorus use), one economic (daily food expenditure) and one human health indicator (DALYs) for current and alternative diets. We found that transition towards a healthy diet following the guidelines of Swiss society of nutrition is the most sustainable option and is projected to result in 36% lesser environmental footprint, 33% lesser expenditure and 2.67% lower adverse health outcome (DALYs) compared with the current diet. On the other extreme, transition towards a meat or protein oriented diet can lead to large increases in diet related adverse health outcomes, environmental footprint, daily food expenditure and a reduction in intakes of essential nutrients (for Vitamin C, Fibre, Potassium and Calcium). We found that shifting to the vegetarian and vegan diet scenarios might lead to a reduction in intakes of certain micronutrients currently supplied primarily by animal-sourced foods (Vitamin B12, Choline and Calcium). Results show that achieving a sustainable diet would entail a high reduction in the intake of meat and vegetable oils and a moderate reduction in cereals, roots and fish products and at the same time increased intake of legumes, nuts, seeds, fruits and vegetables. We identify several current data and research gaps that need to be filled in order to get more accurate results. Overall, our analysis underscores the need to consider multiple indicators while assessing the dietary sustainability and provides a template to conduct such studies in other countries and settings. Future efforts should focus on assessing the potential of different interventions and policies that can help transition the population from current to sustainable dietary patterns.

Conceptual Framework for Biodiversity Assessments in Global Value Chains

Land use and land use change are among the main drivers of the ongoing loss of biodiversity at a global-scale. Although there are already Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) methods to measure this impact, they are still rarely used by companies and municipalities in the life cycle assessment of products and processes. Therefore, this paper highlights four main requirements for a biodiversity methodological framework within LCIA in order to facilitate biodiversity assessments: first, to consider the global uneven distribution of biodiversity and its risks with respect to vulnerability and irreplaceability; second, to account for the need to regionalize the impacts of land use; third, to consider the specific impacts that different land use types have on biodiversity; and fourth, to analyze the biodiversity impacts of different land use management parameters and their influence on the intensity of land use. To this end, we provided a review of existing methods in respect to conformity and research gaps. The present publication describes the development of a new methodological framework that builds on these requirements in a three-level hierarchical framework, which enables the assessment of biodiversity in LCA at a global-scale. This publication reveals research gaps regarding the inclusion of proactive and reactive conservation concepts as well as methods of land management into LCIA methodology. The main objective of this concept paper is therefore to describe a new methodological framework for the assessment of biodiversity in the LCA that could fill some of the research gaps, including compilation and suggestion of suitable data sets. The conclusion discusses both the benefits and limitations of this framework.

Standardizing the evaluation of community-based conservation success

Community-based conservation, which strives to simultaneously improve nature conservation and alleviate poverty, must provide biological and socioeconomic benefits that are linked through effective resilience mechanisms. To date, few community-based conservation initiatives have published comprehensive assessments that track performance in these elements of success. With 45% of the world's protected areas in comanagement with local communities, standardized measures to effectively evaluate the dual goals of community-based conservation are needed. We here introduce SPECCS, a user-friendly Standardized Protocol for Evaluating Community Conservation Success that incorporates an appraisal of data quality to responsibly assess progress over time or to compare effectiveness among different initiatives. We illustrate SPECCS's use by evaluating the Wechiau Community Hippo Sanctuary (WCHS) of northern Ghana 10 and 20 yr after its inception. The WCHS has the dual objective of protecting one of Ghana's few remaining hippopotamus populations while alleviating poverty in the surrounding communities through the creation of economic opportunity and infrastructure development. Results suggest stable project performance in the 10-yr (76%) and 20-yr (76%) evaluation, with an improvement in evaluation quality from 30% to 34%. The project is currently stronger in socioeconomic (performance 86%; quality 30%) than biological (60%; 32%) outcomes and in benefits (83%, 42%) than resilience (63%, 21%). Biological resilience is challenged by poor connectivity and limited project control over threats, whereas socioeconomic resilience is affected by a decision balance that continues to favor external stakeholders. SPECCS helps pinpoint strengths and weaknesses for timely adaptive management, strategic investments, and evidence-based recognition of community-based conservation successes.

Evolutionarily distinct amphibians are disproportionately lost from human-modified ecosystems

Humans continue to alter terrestrial ecosystems, but our understanding of how biodiversity responds is still limited. Anthropogenic habitat conversion has been associated with the loss of evolutionarily distinct bird species at local scales, but whether this evolutionary pattern holds across other clades is unknown. We collate a global dataset on amphibian assemblages in intact forests and nearby human-modified sites to assess whether evolutionary history influences susceptibility to land conversion. We found that evolutionarily distinct amphibian species are disproportionately lost when forested habitats are converted to alternative land-uses. We tested the hypothesis that grassland-associated amphibian lineages have both higher diversification and are pre-adapted to human landscapes, but found only weak evidence supporting this. The loss of evolutionarily distinct amphibians with land conversion suggests that preserving remnant forests will be vital if we aim to preserve the amphibian tree of life in the face of mounting anthropogenic pressures.

Terrestrial Vertebrate Biodiversity Loss under Future Global Land Use Change Scenarios

Efficient forward-looking mitigation measures are needed to halt the global biodiversity decline. These require spatially explicit scenarios of expected changes in multiple indicators of biodiversity under future socio-economic and environmental conditions. Here, we link six future (2050 and 2100) global gridded maps (0.25° × 0.25° resolution) available from the land use harmonization (LUH) database, representing alternative concentration pathways (RCP) and shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with the countryside species–area relationship model to project the future land use change driven rates of species extinctions and phylogenetic diversity loss (in million years) for mammals, birds, and amphibians in each of the 804 terrestrial ecoregions and 176 countries and compare them with the current (1900–2015) and past (850–1900) rates of biodiversity loss. Future land-use changes are projected to commit an additional 209–818 endemic species and 1190–4402 million years of evolutionary history to extinction by 2100 depending upon the scenario. These estimates are driven by land use change only and would likely be higher once the direct effects of climate change on species are included. Among the three taxa, highest diversity loss is projected for amphibians. We found that the most aggressive climate mitigation scenario (RCP2.6 SSP-1), representing a world shifting towards a radically more sustainable path, including increasing crop yields, reduced meat production, and reduced tropical deforestation coupled with high trade, projects the lowest land use change driven global biodiversity loss. The results show that hotspots of future biodiversity loss differ depending upon the scenario, taxon, and metric considered. Future extinctions could potentially be reduced if habitat preservation is incorporated into national development plans, especially for biodiverse, low-income countries such as Indonesia, Madagascar, Tanzania, Philippines, and The Democratic Republic of Congo that are otherwise projected to suffer a high number of land use change driven extinctions under all scenarios.

Land Use Intensity-Specific Global Characterization Factors to Assess Product Biodiversity Footprints

The UNEP-SETAC life cycle initiative recently recommended use of the countryside species-area relationship (SAR) model to calculate the characterization factors (CFs; potential species loss per m²) for projecting the biodiversity impact of land use associated with a products' life cycle. However, CFs based on this approach are to date available for only six broad land use types without differentiating between their management intensities and have large uncertainties that limit their practical applicability. Here we derive updated CFs for projecting potential species losses of five taxa resulting from five broad land use types (managed forests, plantations, pasture, cropland, urban) under three intensity levels (minimal, light, and intense use) in each of the 804 terrestrial ecoregions. We utilize recent global land use intensity maps and International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) habitat classification scheme to parametrize the SAR model. As a case study, we compare the biodiversity impacts of 1 m³ of wood produced under four different forest management regimes in India and demonstrate that the new land use intensity-specific CFs have smaller uncertainty intervals and are able to discern the impacts of intensively managed land uses from the low intensity regimes, which has not been possible through previous CFs.

Nutritional Combined Greenhouse Gas Life Cycle Analysis for Incorporating Canadian Yellow Pea into Cereal-Based Food Products

Incorporating low cost pulses, such as yellow peas, that are rich in nutrients and low in fertilizer requirements, into daily food items, can improve the nutritional and sustainability profile of national diets. This paper systematically characterized the effect of using Canadian grown whole yellow pea and refined wheat flours on nutritional density and carbon footprint in cereal-based food products. Canada-specific production data and the levels of 27 macro- and micronutrients were used to calculate the carbon footprint and nutrient balance score (NBS), respectively, for traditional and reformulated pan bread, breakfast cereal, and pasta. Results showed that partial replacement of refined wheat flour with yellow pea flour increased the NBS of pan bread, breakfast cereal, and pasta by 11%, 70%, and 18%, and decreased the life cycle carbon footprint (kg CO₂ eq/kg) by 4%, 11%, and 13%, respectively. The cultivation stage of wheat and yellow peas, and the electricity used during the manufacturing stage of food production, were the hotspots in the life cycle. The nutritional and greenhouse gas (GHG) data were combined as the nutrition carbon footprint score (NCFS) (NBS/g CO₂ per serving), a novel indicator that reflects product-level nutritional quality per unit environmental impact. Results showed that yellow pea flour increased the NCFS by 15% for pan bread, 90% for breakfast cereal, and 35% for pasta. The results and framework of this study are relevant for food industry, consumers, as well as global and national policy-makers evaluating the effect of dietary change and food reformulation on nutritional and climate change targets.

Gymnosperms on the EDGE

Driven by limited resources and a sense of urgency, the prioritization of species for conservation has been a persistent concern in conservation science. Gymnosperms (comprising ginkgo, conifers, cycads, and gnetophytes) are one of the most threatened groups of living organisms, with 40% of the species at high risk of extinction, about twice as many as the most recent estimates for all plants (i.e. 21.4%). This high proportion of species facing extinction highlights the urgent action required to secure their future through an objective prioritization approach. The Evolutionary Distinct and Globally Endangered (EDGE) method rapidly ranks species based on their evolutionary distinctiveness and the extinction risks they face. EDGE is applied to gymnosperms using a phylogenetic tree comprising DNA sequence data for 85% of gymnosperm species (923 out of 1090 species), to which the 167 missing species were added, and IUCN Red List assessments available for 92% of species. The effect of different extinction probability transformations and the handling of IUCN data deficient species on the resulting rankings is investigated. Although top entries in our ranking comprise species that were expected to score well (e.g. Wollemia nobilis, Ginkgo biloba), many were unexpected (e.g. Araucaria araucana). These results highlight the necessity of using approaches that integrate evolutionary information in conservation science.

Multi-indicator sustainability assessment of global food systems

Food systems are at the heart of at least 12 of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The wide scope of the SDGs call for holistic approaches that integrate previously “siloed” food sustainability assessments. Here we present a first global-scale analysis quantifying the status of national food system performance of 156 countries, employing 25 sustainability indicators across 7 domains as follows: nutrition, environment, food affordability and availability, sociocultural well-being, resilience, food safety, and waste. The results show that different countries have widely varying patterns of performance with unique priorities for improvement. High-income nations score well on most indicators, but poorly on environmental, food waste, and health-sensitive nutrient-intake indicators. Transitioning from animal foods toward plant-based foods would improve indicator scores for most countries. Our nation-specific quantitative results can help policy-makers to set improvement targets on specific areas and adopt new practices, while keeping track of the other aspects of sustainability.

The development of sustainable food systems requires an understanding of potential trade-off between various objectives. Here, Chaudhary et al. examine how different nations score on food system performance across several domains, including environment, nutrition, and sociocultural wellbeing.