Local climatic changes affect biodiversity responses to land use: A review

Seasonality of forest insects: why diapause matters

Insects have major impacts on forest ecosystems, from herbivory and soil-nutrient cycling to killing trees at a large scale. Forest insects from temperate, tropical, and subtropical regions have evolved strategies to respond to seasonality; for example, by entering diapause, to mitigate adversity and to synchronize lifecycles with favorable periods. Here, we show that distinct functional groups of forest insects; that is, canopy dwellers, trunk-associated species, and soil/litter-inhabiting insects, express a variety of diapause strategies, but do not show systematic differences in diapause strategy depending on functional group. Due to the overall similarities in diapause strategies, we can better estimate the impacts of anthropogenic change on forest insect populations and, consequently, on key ecosystems.

The human touch: a meta-analysis of anthropogenic effects on plant-pollinator interaction networks

Background

Anthropogenic activities significantly impact natural ecosystems, leading to alterations in plant and pollinator diversity and abundance. These changes often result in shifts within interacting communities, potentially reshaping the structure of plant-pollinator interaction networks. Given the escalating human footprint on habitats, evaluating the response of these networks to anthropization is critical for devising effective conservation and management strategies.

Methods

We conducted a comprehensive review of the plant-pollinator network literature to assess the impact of anthropization on network structure. We assessed network metrics such as nestedness measure based on overlap and decreasing fills (NODF), network specialization (H2'), connectance (C), and modularity (Q) to understand structural changes. Employing a meta-analytical approach, we examined how anthropization activities, such as deforestation, urbanization, habitat fragmentation, agriculture, intentional fires and livestock farming, affect both plant and pollinator richness.

Results

We generated a dataset for various metrics of network structure and 36 effect sizes for the meta-analysis, from 38 articles published between 2010 and 2023. Studies assessing the impact of agriculture and fragmentation were well-represented, comprising 68.4% of all studies, with networks involving interacting insects being the most studied taxa. Agriculture and fragmentation reduce nestedness and increase specialization in plant-pollinator networks, while modularity and connectance are mostly not affected. Although our meta-analysis suggests that anthropization decreases richness for both plants and pollinators, there was substantial heterogeneity in this regard among the evaluated studies. The meta-regression analyses helped us determine that the habitat fragment size where the studies were conducted was the primary variable contributing to such heterogeneity.

Conclusions

The analysis of human impacts on plant-pollinator networks showed varied effects worldwide. Responses differed among network metrics, signaling nuanced impacts on structure. Activities like agriculture and fragmentation significantly changed ecosystems, reducing species richness in both pollinators and plants, highlighting network vulnerability. Regional differences stressed the need for tailored conservation. Despite insights, more research is crucial for a complete understanding of these ecological relationships.

Lessons from Ethiopian coffee landscapes for global conservation in a post-wild world

The reality for conservation of biodiversity across our planet is that all ecosystems are modified by humans in some way or another. Thus, biodiversity conservation needs to be implemented in multifunctional landscapes. In this paper we use a fascinating coffee-dominated landscape in southwest Ethiopia as our lens to derive general lessons for biodiversity conservation in a post-wild world. Considering a hierarchy of scales from genes to multi-species interactions and social-ecological system contexts, we focus on (i) threats to the genetic diversity of crop wild relatives, (ii) the mechanisms behind trade-offs between biodiversity and agricultural yields, (iii) underexplored species interactions suppressing pest and disease levels, (iv) how the interactions of climate change and land-use change sometimes provide opportunities for restoration, and finally, (v) how to work closely with stakeholders to identify scenarios for sustainable development. The story on how the ecology and evolution of coffee within its indigenous distribution shape biodiversity conservation from genes to social-ecological systems can inspire us to view other landscapes with fresh eyes. The ubiquitous presence of human-nature interactions demands proactive, creative solutions to foster biodiversity conservation not only in remote protected areas but across entire landscapes inhabited by people.

Urbanization does not affect red foxes' interest in anthropogenic food, but increases their initial cautiousness

Human presence and activities have profoundly altered animals' habitats, exposing them to greater risks but also providing new opportunities and resources. The animals' capacity to effectively navigate and strike a balance between risks and benefits is crucial for their survival in the Anthropocene era. Red foxes (Vulpes vulpes), adept urban dwellers, exhibit behavioral plasticity in human-altered environments. We investigated variations in detection frequency on trail cameras and the behavioral responses (explorative, bold, and fearful) of wild red foxes living along an urbanization gradient when exposed to a metal bin initially presented clean and then filled with anthropogenic food. All fox populations displayed an increased interest and similar explorative behavioral responses toward the anthropogenic food source, irrespective of the urbanization gradient. Despite no impact on explorative behaviors, foxes in more urbanized areas initially showed heightened fear toward the empty bin, indicating increased apprehension toward novel objects. However, this fear diminished over time, and in the presence of food, urban foxes displayed slightly reduced fear compared with their less urban counterparts. Our results highlight foxes' potential for adaptability to human landscapes, additionally underscoring the nuanced interplay of fear and explorative behavioral response of populations living along the urbanization gradient.

LG, Cruz-Neto AP. Combined effects of ambient temperature and food availability on induced innate immune response of a fruit-eating bat (Carollia perspicillata)

Resilience of mammals to anthropogenic climate and land-use changes is associated with the maintenance of adequate responses of several fitness-related traits such as those related to immune functions. Isolated and combined effects of decreased food availability and increased ambient temperature can lead to immunosuppression and greater susceptibility to disease. Our study tested the general hypothesis that decreased food availability, increased ambient temperature and the combined effect of both factors would affect selected physiological and behavioral components associated with the innate immune system of fruit-eating bats (Carollia perspicillata). Physiological (fever, leukocytosis and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio) and behavioral (food intake) components of the acute phase response, as well as bacterial killing ability of the plasma were assessed after immune challenge with lipopolysaccharide (LPS: 10 mg/kg) in experimental groups kept at different short-term conditions of food availability (ad libitum diet or 50% food-deprived) and ambient temperature (27 and 33°C). Our results indicate that magnitude of increase in body temperature was not affected by food availability, ambient temperature or the interaction of both factors, but the time to reach the highest increase took longer in LPS-injected bats that were kept under food restriction. The magnitude of increased neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio was affected by the interaction between food availability and ambient temperature, but food intake, total white blood cell count and bacterial killing ability were not affected by any factor or interaction. Overall, our results suggest that bacterial killing ability and most components of acute phase response examined are not affected by short-term changes in food availability and ambient temperature within the range evaluated in this study, and that the increase of the neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio when bats are exposed to low food availability and high ambient temperature might represent an enhancement of cellular response to deal with infection.

Anthropogenic climate and land-use change drive short- and long-term biodiversity shifts across taxa

Climate change and habitat loss present serious threats to nature. Yet, due to a lack of historical land-use data, the potential for land-use change and baseline land-use conditions to interact with a changing climate to affect biodiversity remains largely unknown. Here, we use historical land use, climate data and species observation data to investigate the patterns and causes of biodiversity change in Great Britain. We show that anthropogenic climate change and land conversion have broadly led to increased richness, biotic homogenization and warmer-adapted communities of British birds, butterflies and plants over the long term (50+ years) and short term (20 years). Biodiversity change was found to be largely determined by baseline environmental conditions of land use and climate, especially over shorter timescales, suggesting that biodiversity change in recent periods could reflect an inertia derived from past environmental changes. Climate-land-use interactions were mostly related to long-term change in species richness and beta diversity across taxa. Semi-natural grasslands (in a broad sense, including meadows, pastures, lowland and upland heathlands and open wetlands) were associated with lower rates of biodiversity change, while their contribution to national-level biodiversity doubled over the long term. Our findings highlight the need to protect and restore natural and semi-natural habitats, alongside a fuller consideration of individual species' requirements beyond simple measures of species richness in biodiversity management and policy.

The correlation between echinoderms diversity and physicochemical parameters in marine pollution: A case study of the Persian Gulf coastline

This study was conducted with the aim of investigating the correlation between echinoderms diversity and physicochemical parameters in the Persian Gulf coastline in Bushehr province in 4 seasons from March to December 2017. The physicochemical parameters including water temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), electrical conductivity (EC), salinity, pH and turbidity were measured at each sampling location. The results showed a significant correlation between echinoderms diversity and physicochemical parameters. The correlation coefficient of the Astropecten polyacanthus species with the parameters of temperature, DO, EC, salinity and turbidity was reported as -0.41, 0.64, -0.25, -0.44 and 0.60 respectively. This coefficient for the Ophiothrix fragilis species was reported as -0.68, 0.70, -0.21, -0.36 and -0.55 respectively. The results demonstrated that the most sensitive species were Astropecten polyacanthus and Ophiothrix fragilis respectively. The different species of echinoderms can be used as biological indicators of pollution in evaluating the physicochemical quality of marine environments.

Exploiting root exudates to manage soil-borne disease complexes in a changing climate

Ongoing climate change will both profoundly impact land-use (e.g., changes in crop species or cultivar and cropping practices) and abiotic factors (e.g., moisture and temperature), which will in turn alter plant-microorganism interactions in soils, including soil-borne pathogens (i.e., plant pathogenic bacteria, fungi, oomycetes, viruses, and nematodes). These pathogens often cause soil-borne disease complexes, which, due to their complexity, frequently remain undiagnosed and unmanaged, leading to chronic yield and quality losses. Root exudates are a complex group of organic substances released in the rhizosphere with potential to recruit, repel, stimulate, inhibit, or kill other organisms, including the detrimental ones. An improved understanding of how root exudates affect interspecies and/or interkingdom interactions in the rhizosphere under ongoing climate change is a prerequisite to effectively manage plant-associated microbes, including those causing diseases.

Maximum temperatures determine the habitat affiliations of North American mammals

Addressing the ongoing biodiversity crisis requires identifying the winners and losers of global change. Species are often categorized based on how they respond to habitat loss; for example, species restricted to natural environments, those that most often occur in anthropogenic habitats, and generalists that do well in both. However, species might switch habitat affiliations across time and space: an organism may venture into human-modified areas in benign regions but retreat into thermally buffered forested habitats in areas with high temperatures. Here, we apply community occupancy models to a large-scale camera trapping dataset with 29 mammal species distributed over 2,485 sites across the continental United States, to ask three questions. First, are species' responses to forest and anthropogenic habitats consistent across continental scales? Second, do macroclimatic conditions explain spatial variation in species responses to land use? Third, can species traits elucidate which taxa are most likely to show climate-dependent habitat associations? We found that all species exhibited significant spatial variation in how they respond to land-use, tending to avoid anthropogenic areas and increasingly use forests in hotter regions. In the hottest regions, species occupancy was 50% higher in forested compared to open habitats, whereas in the coldest regions, the trend reversed. Larger species with larger ranges, herbivores, and primary predators were more likely to change their habitat affiliations than top predators, which consistently affiliated with high forest cover. Our findings suggest that climatic conditions influence species' space-use and that maintaining forest cover can help protect mammals from warming climates.

Cool shade and not-so-cool shade: How habitat loss may accelerate thermal stress under current and future climate

Worldwide habitat loss, land-use changes, and climate change threaten biodiversity, and we urgently need models that predict the combined impacts of these threats on organisms. Current models, however, overlook microhabitat diversity within landscapes and so do not accurately inform conservation efforts, particularly for ectotherms. Here, we built and field-parameterized a model to examine the effects of habitat loss and climate change on activity and microhabitat selection by a diurnal desert lizard. Our model predicted that lizards in rock-free areas would reduce summer activity levels (e.g. foraging, basking) and that future warming will gradually decrease summer activity in rocky areas, as even large rocks become thermally stressful. Warmer winters will enable more activity but will require bushes and small rocks as shade retreats. Hence, microhabitats that may seem unimportant today will become important under climate change. Modelling frameworks should consider the microhabitat requirements of organisms to improve conservation outcomes.

Agriculture and hot temperatures interactively erode the nest success of habitat generalist birds across the United States

Habitat conversion and climate change are fundamental drivers of biodiversity loss worldwide but are often analyzed in isolation. We used a continental-scale, decades-long database of more than 150,000 bird nesting attempts to explore how extreme heat affects avian reproduction in forests, grasslands, and agricultural and developed areas across the US. We found that in forests, extreme heat increased nest success, but birds nesting in agricultural settings were much less likely to successfully fledge young when temperatures reached anomalously high levels. Species that build exposed cup nests and species of higher conservation concern were particularly vulnerable to maximum temperature anomalies in agricultural settings. Finally, future projections suggested that ongoing climate change may exacerbate the negative effects of habitat conversion on avian nesting success, thereby compromising conservation efforts in human-dominated landscapes.

Machine learning methods reveal processes affecting abundance at multiple scales. A commentary on 'Global and regional drivers of abundance patterns in the hart's tongue fern complex (Aspleniaceae)'

This article comments on:

Namjoo Heo, Donald J. Leopold, Mark V. Lomolino, Seona Yun and Danilo D. Fernando. Global and regional drivers of abundance patterns in the hart’s tongue fern complex (Aspleniaceae), Annals of Botany, Volume 131, Issue 5, 11 April 2023, Pages 737–750, https://doi.org/10.1093/aob/mcac129

Potential distribution of Blumea balsamifera in China using MaxEnt and the ex situ conservation based on its effective components and fresh leaf yield

Blumea balsamifera is a famous Chinese Minority Medicine, which has a long history in Miao, Li, Zhuang, and other minority areas. In recent years, due to the influence of natural and human factors, the distribution area of B. balsamifera resources has a decreasing trend. Therefore, it is very important to analyze the suitability of B. balsamifera in China. Following three climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) under 2050s and 2070s, geographic information technology (GIS) and maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) were used to simulate the ecological suitability of B. balsamifera. The contents of L-borneol and total flavonoids of B. balsamifera in different populations were determined by gas chromatography (GC) and ultraviolet spectrophotometry (UV). The results showed that the key environmental variables affecting the distribution of B. balsamifera were mean temperature of coldest quarter (6.18-26.57 ℃), precipitation of driest quarter (22.46-169.7 mm), annual precipitation (518.36-1845.29 mm), and temperature seasonality (291.31-878.87). Under current climate situation, the highly suitable habitat was mainly located western Guangxi, southern Yunnan, most of Hainan, southwestern Guizhou, southwestern Guangdong, southeastern Fujian, and western Taiwan, with a total area of 24.1 × 10⁴ km². The areas of the moderately and poorly suitable habitats were 27.57 × 10⁴ km² and 42.43 × 10⁴ km², respectively. Under the future climate change scenarios, the areas of the highly, moderately, and poorly suitable habitats of B. balsamifera showed a significant increasing trend, the geometric center of the total suitable habitats of B. balsamifera would move to the northeast. In recent years, the planting area of B. balsamifera has been reduced on a large scale in Guizhou, and its ex situ protection is imperative. By comparison, the content of L-borneol, total flavonoids and fresh leaf yield had no significant difference between Guizhou and Hainan (P > 0.05), which indicated that Hainan is one of the best choice for ex situ protection of B. balsamifera.

The Impact of Fine-Scale Present and Historical Land Cover on Plant Diversity in Central European National Parks with Heterogeneous Landscapes

As the human population grows, the transformation of landscapes for human uses increases. In recent homogeneous and predominantly agricultural landscapes, land-cover and management changes are considered the main drivers of vascular plant diversity. However, the specific effects of land-cover classes across whole heterogeneous landscapes are still insufficiently explored. Here, we investigated two floristic surveys realised in 1997 and 2021, accompanied by fine-scale land-cover classes detected in 1950, 1999 and 2018, to reveal the impact of historical and present land cover on the pattern of species composition and species richness in the bilateral Podyjí and Thayatal National Parks. Multi-dimensional analyses revealed that the species composition was driven by the fine-scale historical land cover, the overall species richness was mostly affected by the river phenomenon and the present richness was mostly affected by increased soil nutrients. In well-preserved protected areas, it is especially desirable to restore disappearing land-cover classes with traditional or compensatory management to retain plant species richness, which is a key factor of biodiversity. However, management plans should also take into account the increasing amount of nitrogen in soils from long-term continual deposition, which can strongly impact the species richness, even in national parks with low current deposition.

Interactive effects of drought and edge exposure on old-growth forest understory species

Context

Both climatic extremes and land-use change constitute severe threats to biodiversity, but their interactive effects remain poorly understood. In forest ecosystems, the effects of climatic extremes can be exacerbated at forest edges.

Objectives

We explored the hypothesis that an extreme summer drought reduced the richness and coverage of old-growth forest species, particularly in forest patches with high edge exposure.

Methods

Using a high-resolution spatially explicit precipitation dataset, we could detect variability in drought intensity during the summer drought of 2018. We selected 60 old-growth boreal forest patches in central Sweden that differed in their level of drought intensity and amount of edge exposure. The year after the drought, we surveyed red-listed and old-growth forest indicator species of vascular plants, lichens and bryophytes. We assessed if species richness, composition, and coverage were related to drought intensity, edge exposure, and their interaction.

Results

Species richness was negatively related to drought intensity in forest patches with a high edge exposure, but not in patches with less edge exposure. Patterns differed among organism groups and were strongest for cyanolichens, epiphytes associated with high-pH bark, and species occurring on convex substrates such as trees and logs.

Conclusions

Our results show that the effects of an extreme climatic event on forest species can vary strongly across a landscape. Edge exposed old-growth forest patches are more at risk under extreme climatic events than those in continuous forests. This suggest that maintaining buffer zones around forest patches with high conservation values should be an important conservation measure.

Supplementary information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10980-022-01441-9.

Interactive effects of climate and land use on pollinator diversity differ among taxa and scales

Changes in climate and land use are major threats to pollinating insects, an essential functional group. Here, we unravel the largely unknown interactive effects of both threats on seven pollinator taxa using a multiscale space-for-time approach across large climate and land-use gradients in a temperate region. Pollinator community composition, regional gamma diversity, and community dissimilarity (beta diversity) of pollinator taxa were shaped by climate-land-use interactions, while local alpha diversity was solely explained by their additive effects. Pollinator diversity increased with reduced land-use intensity (forest < grassland < arable land < urban) and high flowering-plant diversity at different spatial scales, and higher temperatures homogenized pollinator communities across regions. Our study reveals declines in pollinator diversity with land-use intensity at multiple spatial scales and regional community homogenization in warmer and drier climates. Management options at several scales are highlighted to mitigate impacts of climate change on pollinators and their ecosystem services.

Agriculture and climate change are reshaping insect biodiversity worldwide

Several previous studies have investigated changes in insect biodiversity, with some highlighting declines and others showing turnover in species composition without net declines^1-5. Although research has shown that biodiversity changes are driven primarily by land-use change and increasingly by climate change^6,7, the potential for interaction between these drivers and insect biodiversity on the global scale remains unclear. Here we show that the interaction between indices of historical climate warming and intensive agricultural land use is associated with reductions of almost 50% in the abundance and 27% in the number of species within insect assemblages relative to those in less-disturbed habitats with lower rates of historical climate warming. These patterns are particularly evident in the tropical realm, whereas some positive responses of biodiversity to climate change occur in non-tropical regions in natural habitats. A high availability of nearby natural habitat often mitigates reductions in insect abundance and richness associated with agricultural land use and substantial climate warming but only in low-intensity agricultural systems. In such systems, in which high levels (75% cover) of natural habitat are available, abundance and richness were reduced by 7% and 5%, respectively, compared with reductions of 63% and 61% in places where less natural habitat is present (25% cover). Our results show that insect biodiversity will probably benefit from mitigating climate change, preserving natural habitat within landscapes and reducing the intensity of agriculture.

Vertebrate population trends are influenced by interactions between land use, climatic position, habitat loss and climate change

Rapid human-driven environmental changes are impacting animal populations around the world. Currently, land-use and climate change are two of the biggest pressures facing biodiversity. However, studies investigating the impacts of these pressures on population trends often do not consider potential interactions between climate and land-use change. Further, a population's climatic position (how close the ambient temperature and precipitation conditions are to the species' climatic tolerance limits) is known to influence responses to climate change but has yet to be investigated with regard to its influence on land-use change responses over time. Consequently, important variations across species' ranges in responses to environmental changes may be being overlooked. Here, we combine data from the Living Planet and BioTIME databases to carry out a global analysis exploring the impacts of land use, habitat loss, climatic position, climate change and the interactions between these variables, on vertebrate population trends. By bringing these datasets together, we analyse over 7,000 populations across 42 countries. We find that land-use change is interacting with climate change and a population's climatic position to influence rates of population change. Moreover, features of a population's local landscape (such as surrounding land cover) play important roles in these interactions. For example, populations in agricultural land uses where maximum temperatures were closer to their hot thermal limit, declined at faster rates when there had also been rapid losses in surrounding semi-natural habitat. The complex interactions between these variables on populations highlight the importance of taking intraspecific variation and interactions between local and global pressures into account. Understanding how drivers of change are interacting and impacting populations, and how this varies spatially, is critical if we are to identify populations at risk, predict species' responses to future environmental changes and produce suitable conservation strategies.

Intensive human land uses negatively affect vertebrate functional diversity

Land-use change is the leading driver of global biodiversity loss thus characterising its impacts on the functional structure of ecological communities is an urgent challenge. Using a database describing vertebrate assemblages in different land uses, we assess how the type and intensity of land use affect the functional diversity of vertebrates globally. We find that human land uses alter local functional structure by driving declines in functional diversity, with the strongest effects in the most disturbed land uses (intensely used urban sites, cropland and pastures), and among amphibians and birds. Both tropical and temperate areas experience important functional losses, which are only partially offset by functional gains. Tropical assemblages are more likely to show decreases in functional diversity that exceed those expected from species loss alone. Our results indicate that land-use change non-randomly reshapes the functional structure of vertebrate assemblages, raising concerns about the continuation of ecological processes sustained by vertebrates.

Land Use Changes Threaten Bird Taxonomic and Functional Diversity Across the Mediterranean Basin: A Spatial Analysis to Prioritize Monitoring for Conservation

Land use changes rank among the highest threats to biodiversity, but assessment of their ecological impact is impaired by data paucity in vast regions of the world. For birds, land use changes may mean habitat loss or fragmentation, changes in resource availability, and disruption of biotic interactions or dispersal pathways. As a result, avian population sizes and assemblage diversity decline in areas subjected to urbanization, agricultural intensification, and land abandonment worldwide. This threat is especially sensitive in hotspots such as the Mediterranean basin, where avifaunas of several biogeographic origins meet, encompassing numerous endemic taxa, and ecological specialists with low resilience to habitat modifications. Here, we correlated several facets of bird taxonomic and functional diversity to a fine-grained land-use change classification, in order to identify priority areas in need for enforced protocoled bird sampling in a conservation prospect. For this, we computed the species richness, functional richness, originality and specificity of 211 bird assemblages based on bird extent-of-occurrence data for 279 species and 10 ecological traits. We used a spatialized regression model to correlate bird diversity patterns with bioclimatic gradients and land use change between 1992 and 2018, assessed from an unsupervised clustering on 2 km resolution data. We showed that species-rich bird assemblages are subjected to agricultural intensification, while functionally diverse assemblages are mainly undergoing desertification and land abandonment. Unfortunately, most of these changes occur in areas where protocoled bird surveys with sufficient spatial and temporal resolution are lacking. In light of these results, we urge for the setting of bird monitoring programs targeted mainly on parts of North-Africa and the Levant, in order to allow a region-level evaluation of the threat posed by recent land use changes on the exceptional avifaunistic diversity of the basin. Fostering such regional-scale evaluations of congruences between human threats and centers of diversity is a necessary preliminary step for a pragmatic response to data deficiencies and ultimately setting appropriate responses to avoid the collapse of avian assemblages.

Disentangling climatic and anthropogenic contributions to nonlinear dynamics of alpine grassland productivity on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Alpine grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau are sensitive and vulnerable to climate change and human activities. Climate warming and overgrazing have already caused degradation in a large fraction of alpine grasslands on this plateau. However, it remains unclear how human activities (mainly livestock grazing) regulates vegetation dynamics under climate change. Here, alpine grassland productivity (substituted with the normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI) is hypothesized to vary in a nonlinear trajectory to follow climate fluctuations and human disturbances. With generalized additive mixed modelling (GAMM) and residual-trend (RESTREND) analysis together, both magnitude and direction of climatic (in terms of temperature, precipitation, and radiation) and anthropogenic impacts on NDVI variation were examined across alpine meadows, steppes, and desert-steppes on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The results revealed that accelerating warming and greening, respectively, took place in 76.2% and 78.8% of alpine grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The relative importance of temperature, precipitation, and radiation impacts was comparable, between 20.4% and 24.8%, and combined to explain 66.2% of NDVI variance at the pixel scale. The human influence was strengthening and weakening, respectively, in 15.5% and 14.3% of grassland pixels, being slightly larger than any sole climatic variable across the entire plateau. Anthropogenic and climatic factors can be in opposite ways to affect alpine grasslands, even within the same grassland type, likely regulated by plant community assembly and species functional traits. Therefore, the underlying mechanisms of how plant functional diversity regulates nonlinear ecosystem response to climatic and anthropogenic stresses should be carefully explored in the future.

Tropical and Mediterranean biodiversity is disproportionately sensitive to land-use and climate change

Global biodiversity is undergoing rapid declines, driven in large part by changes to land use and climate. Global models help us to understand the consequences of environmental changes for biodiversity, but tend to neglect important geographical variation in the sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. Here we test whether biodiversity responses to climate change and land-use change differ among biomes (geographical units that have marked differences in environment and species composition). We find the strongest negative responses to both pressures in tropical biomes and in the Mediterranean. A further analysis points towards similar underlying drivers for the sensitivity to each pressure: we find both greater reductions in species richness in the types of land use most disturbed by humans and more negative predicted responses to climate change in areas of lower climatic seasonality, and in areas where a greater proportion of species are near their upper temperature limit. Within the land most modified by humans, reductions in biodiversity were particularly large in regions where humans have come to dominate the land more recently. Our results will help to improve predictions of how biodiversity is likely to change with ongoing climatic and land-use changes, pointing toward particularly large declines in the tropics where much future agricultural expansion is expected to occur. This finding could help to inform the development of the post-2020 biodiversity framework, by highlighting the under-studied regions where biodiversity losses are likely to be greatest.

Non-linear changes in modelled terrestrial ecosystems subjected to perturbations

Perturbed ecosystems may undergo rapid and non-linear changes, resulting in 'regime shifts' to an entirely different ecological state. The need to understand the extent, nature, magnitude and reversibility of these changes is urgent given the profound effects that humans are having on the natural world. General ecosystem models, which simulate the dynamics of ecosystems based on a mechanistic representation of ecological processes, provide one novel way to project ecosystem changes across all scales and trophic levels, and to forecast impact thresholds beyond which irreversible changes may occur. We model ecosystem changes in four terrestrial biomes subjected to human removal of plant biomass, such as occurs through agricultural land-use change. We find that irreversible, non-linear responses commonly occur where removal of vegetation exceeds 80% (a level that occurs across nearly 10% of the Earth's land surface), especially for organisms at higher trophic levels and in less productive ecosystems. Very large, irreversible changes to ecosystem structure are expected at levels of vegetation removal akin to those in the most intensively used real-world ecosystems. Our results suggest that the projected twenty-first century rapid increases in agricultural land conversion may lead to widespread trophic cascades and in some cases irreversible changes to ecosystem structure.

Human land uses reduce climate connectivity across North America

Climate connectivity, the ability of a landscape to promote or hinder the movement of organisms in response to a changing climate, is contingent on multiple factors including the distance organisms need to move to track suitable climate over time (i.e. climate velocity) and the resistance they experience along such routes. An additional consideration which has received less attention is that human land uses increase resistance to movement or alter movement routes and thus influence climate connectivity. Here we evaluate the influence of human land uses on climate connectivity across North America by comparing two climate connectivity scenarios, one considering climate change in isolation and the other considering climate change and human land uses. In doing so, we introduce a novel metric of climate connectivity, 'human exposure', that quantifies the cumulative exposure to human activities that organisms may encounter as they shift their ranges in response to climate change. We also delineate potential movement routes and evaluate whether the protected area network supports movement corridors better than non-protected lands. We found that when incorporating human land uses, climate connectivity decreased; climate velocity increased on average by 0.3 km/year and cumulative climatic resistance increased for ~83% of the continent. Moreover, ~96% of movement routes in North America must contend with human land uses to some degree. In the scenario that evaluated climate change in isolation, we found that protected areas do not support climate corridors at a higher rate than non-protected lands across North America. However, variability is evident, as many ecoregions contain protected areas that exhibit both more and less representation of climate corridors compared to non-protected lands. Overall, our study indicates that previous evaluations of climate connectivity underestimate climate change exposure because they do not account for human impacts.