Immediate behavioural responses to earthquakes in Christchurch, New Zealand, and Hitachi, Japan

Modeling protective action decision-making in earthquakes by using explainable machine learning and video data

Earthquakes pose substantial threats to communities worldwide. Understanding how people respond to the fast-changing environment during earthquakes is crucial for reducing risks and saving lives. This study aims to study people's protective action decision-making in earthquakes by leveraging explainable machine learning and video data. Specifically, this study first collected real-world CCTV footage and video postings from social media platforms, and then identified and annotated changes in the environment and people's behavioral responses during the M7.1 2018 Anchorage earthquake. By using the fully annotated video data, we applied XGBoost, a widely-used machine learning method, to model and forecast people's protective actions (e.g., drop and cover, hold on, and evacuate) during the earthquake. Then, explainable machine learning techniques were used to reveal the complex, nonlinear relationships between different factors and people's choices of protective actions. Modeling results confirm that social and environmental cues played critical roles in affecting the probability of different protective actions. Certain factors, such as the earthquake shaking intensity and number of people shown in the environment, displayed evident nonlinear relationships with the probability of choosing to evacuate. These findings can help emergency managers and policymakers design more effective protective action recommendations during earthquakes.

Evacuate or social distance? Modeling the influence of threat perceptions on hurricane evacuation in a dual-threat environment

This study investigates how different risk predictors influenced households' evacuation decisions during a dual-threat event (Hurricane Laura and COVID-19 pandemic). The Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) literature indicates that perceived threat variables are the most influential variables that drive evacuation decisions. This study applies the PADM to investigate a dual-threat disaster that has conflicting protective action recommendations. Given the novelty, scale, span, impact, and messaging around COVID-19, it is crucial to see how hurricanes along the Gulf Coast-a hazard addressed seasonally by residents with mostly consistent protective action messaging-produce different reactions in residents in this pandemic context. Household survey data were collected during early 2021 using a disproportionate stratified sampling procedure to include households located in mandatory and voluntary evacuation areas across the coastal counties in Texas and parishes in Louisiana that were affected by Hurricane Laura. Structural equation modeling was used to identify the relationships between perceived threats and evacuation decisions. The findings suggest affective risk perceptions strongly affected cognitive risk perceptions (CRPs). Notably, hurricane and COVID-19 CRPs are significant predictors of hurricane evacuation decisions in different ways. Hurricane CRPs encourage evacuation, but COVID-19 CRPs hinder evacuation decisions.

Community Disaster Resilience and Risk Perception in Earthquake-Stricken Areas of China

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study is to further deepen our understanding of the relationship between community resilience and disaster risk perception of residents, so as to provide beneficial enlightenment for the construction of community resilience disaster prevention system and disaster risk management.

METHODS

This study surveyed 327 rural households in four counties of Sichuan Province, China, that were affected by the Wenchuan and Lushan earthquakes. Community disaster resilience was divided into five dimensions: connection and caring, resources, transformative potential, disaster management, and information and communication. Residents' disaster risk perception was divided into three dimensions: possibility, threat, and worry. This study analyzed the characteristics of community disaster resilience and residents' disaster risk perceptions. Ordinary least squares (OLS) methods were used to explore the correlations between these factors.

RESULTS

The results show that (1) Residents' overall disaster risk perception was at a moderate level, and the community's overall disaster resilience were above the moderate level. (2) Community connection and caring has a positive significant correlation with the possibility perception of disaster occurrence; transformative potential has a negative significant correlation with the possibility perception of disaster occurrence; the overall community disaster resilience has negative significant correlations with the possibility and the overall residents' perception of disaster risk occurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

The implication for the local government is that the government should appropriately increase its contact with external institutions/organizations, especially some Non-Governmental Organization, to strengthen the resilience and disaster prevention capacity of the community. Establish and improve information and communication networks to ensure the timely and effective transmission of effective disaster information, and strengthen the supervision of the dissemination of false information to reduce the losses caused by false information to residents. Attention should be paid to psychological counseling for people in disaster-hit areas to reduce the psychological trauma of the disaster.

Earthquake Threat! Understanding the Intention to Prepare for the Big One

Knowledge about how hazard-threatened individuals perceive risks and what influences their intentions to prepare is crucial for effective disaster management. We investigated (a) whether residents of objectively higher-risk earthquake areas within a city perceive greater risk, have stronger intentions to prepare, and report more preparation than residents of objectively lower-risk areas, (b) 10 antecedent factors as predictors of the intention to prepare for an earthquake, and (c) whether risk perception mediates the relations between nine antecedent factors and the intention to prepare. Notably, residents of high-risk areas did not express stronger intentions to prepare or report more preparations than did residents of low-risk areas, despite perceiving significantly greater risk. Risk perception mediated the relation between antecedent fatalism and the intention to prepare. Among the policy implications is a clear need for greater education of residents in high-risk earthquake areas.

People's Response to Potential Natural Hazard-Triggered Technological Threats after a Sudden-Onset Earthquake in Indonesia

(1) Background: We aim to examine whether people activate initial protection behavior, adopt evacuation behavior, worry about the possibility of a tsunami, and consider natural hazard-triggered technological (Natech) situations in a sudden-onset earthquake. The literature suggests that risk perception is a significant predictor of people's response to potential Natech threats. We aim to empirically verify the variables relating to people's responses. (2) Methods: We conducted a household survey following a January 2018 earthquake in Indonesia. (3) Results: Immediately after the earthquake, almost 30% of the respondents assembled at the evacuation point. However, sequential steps of people's response were not observed: evacuation immediately after the earthquake was due to worry about the possibility of a tsunami, but this worry was not related to Natech damage estimation. The relevant factors for evacuation behavior were information access, worry about the possibility of a tsunami, and knowledge of groups and programs related to disaster risk reduction (DRR). The survey location (two villages), perceived earthquake risk, and DRR activity participation are less relevant to the behavior of assembling at the evacuation point. (4) Conclusions: Contrary to the existing literature, our results do not support that higher risk perception is associated with evacuation behavior, or that immediate evacuation is related to foreseeing cascading sequential consequences.

Population Preparedness for Disasters and Extreme Weather Events as a Predictor of Building a Resilient Society: The Slovak Republic

The current increase and severity of the natural disasters whose effects on the public health are likely to be even more extreme and complex, requires enhancing and developing the disaster preparedness on the population level. In order to be able to do so, it is inevitable and determinative to know the factors that affect people's preparedness on the population level. Therefore, the objective of this article is to present the results from assessing the factors related to the population preparedness for the disasters on a sample of citizens living from the Slovak Republic. Our research is based on the exploration of the questionnaire survey' results aimed at investigating the preparedness and preventive proactive behaviour of the population against the disasters. The search for the initiators of such a behaviour and assessment of the influence of various aspects (e.g., the respondents' experience with disasters, their vulnerability to disasters, the risk awareness, the perception of the disaster risks in the changing environment, etc.) on the respondents' behaviour against disasters is the main part of the article and is supported by the statistical analysis. The results of the survey suggest that the disaster risk awareness and overall disaster preparedness level is rather poor and the population is inactive. The proactive behaviour of the respondents against the disasters is partially affected by some of their personality and socio-economic characteristics, especially the younger respondents currently incline more to adopting the protective measures. In addition, other aspects, e.g., the negative experience with the disasters in the past influence the preparedness. However, the impacts must have been relatively serious for the proactive behaviour to be influenced. The influences of other aspects as well as the possible methods for improving the disaster preparedness and the possibilities of increasing the resilience of the population as a whole are also discussed in this article.

Livelihood resilience and strategies of rural residents of earthquake-threatened areas in Sichuan Province, China

Natural disasters are increasing in frequency in China. Enhancing residents' livelihood resilience and adjusting their livelihood strategies have gradually become effective means of dealing with disaster risk. Therefore, it is of great significance to explore the livelihood strategies and livelihood resilience of rural residents in earthquake-stricken areas to help them cope with disaster risks. However, few studies have explored the correlation between residents' livelihood resilience and livelihood strategies from the perspective of residents' livelihood resilience. Based on a survey of 327 households in four districts and counties of Sichuan Province, China that were affected by the Wenchuan and Lushan earthquakes, we construct a framework for analyzing livelihood resilience and livelihood strategy selection. We comprehensively analyze the characteristics of livelihood resilience and livelihood strategy and explore their correlation using an ordinal multi-classification logistic regression model. The results show that: (1) Among 327 sample households, 90.21% were non-farming, 3.67% were part-time households and 6.12% were farming households. Residents' livelihood resilience is mainly based on their disaster prevention and mitigation capacity. (2) As far as the correlation between livelihood resilience and livelihood strategies is concerned, the stronger the buffer capacity in livelihood resilience, the more rural residents tend to engage in non-farming activities to obtain income. When other conditions remain unchanged, the logarithmic probability of choosing an agricultural livelihood strategy decreases by 21.814 for each unit of buffer capacity. From the perspective of residents' livelihood resilience, this study deepens our understanding of the relationship between livelihood resilience and livelihood strategy in earthquake-stricken areas. It also provides useful information for the formulation of policies to improve residents' resilience in disaster-threatened areas.

Using Logistic Regression to Identify Leading Factors to Prepare for an Earthquake Emergency during Daytime and Nighttime: The Case of Mass Earthquake Drills

Historical data have demonstrated that earthquakes can happen any time of the day and night. Drills may help communities to better prepare for such emergencies. A cross-sectional survey was conducted from 4 October to 20 November 2017, in Mexico City. The sample size was 2400. The addressed research questions were “what factors predict the likelihood that respondents would report that they agree on conducting mass evacuation drills: (a) any time of the day and (b) any time at night?” The logistic regression technique was employed to identify the factors leading to the outcome. In relation to (a), five variables were significantly associated with the outcome, i.e., age, frequency of drills, warning time, knowledge on what to do, and “perception vulnerability city”. Regarding (b), five variables were also significantly associated with the outcome variable, i.e., age, level of education, frequency of drills, negative emotions, and fear of house/building collapsing. More generally, several drills should be conducted any time of the day and night; further, 50% of them should be announced and 50% unannounced. Furthermore, the time of earthquake drills should be randomly selected. In this way, we may just match the spatial–temporal dimension of an earthquake emergency. It is hoped that the findings will lead to better preparedness of the residents of the capital city during an earthquake occurrence.

Differences in the Disaster-Preparedness Behaviors of the General Public and Professionals: Evidence from Sichuan Province, China

Sichuan Province in China is one of the world’s most earthquake-stricken areas. Wenchuan and Lushan Counties in Sichuan and other earthquake-stricken areas contain rural settlements subject to geological disasters and poverty. However, there is little research on the characteristics of disaster-preparedness behavior and whether these differ between professionals and the general public in rural settlements with high earthquake risk and poverty. Using survey data from 327 farmers in rural settlements affected by major earthquakes in Wenchuan and Lushan Counties, independent-sample t-tests and chi-squared tests were used to test for differences in the disaster-preparedness behaviors of professionals and the general public. The results show that (1) there were significant differences in emergency-disaster preparedness, knowledge and skills preparedness and overall disaster-prevention preparedness, and (2) there was no significant difference in physical disaster-prevention preparation. Based on these results, the study suggests policy directions for regional poverty alleviation, disaster prevention and reduction and disaster management.

Mexico city's residents emotional and behavioural reactions to the 19 September 2017 earthquake

The paper presents the results of a cross-sectional study conducted in Mexico City following the earthquake that occurred on September 19, 2017. The sample size of the study was N = 2400. The aim has been the study of people's emotional and behavioural responses during and immediately after the tremors. Some of the results and conclusions were the following: a). During the tremors, respondents coping reactions were related to escape, reaching and protecting people, and seeking shelter; b). The actions taken by the respondents immediately after the tremor were reuniting with family members, evacuation, and returning to houses; c). The emotional responses of the participants of the study were fear and surprise; d). The capital city's residents exhibited a relatively high percentage of prosocial behaviour during the seismic emergency response; e). More generally, the residents of the city should be trained on what to do during and after the tremors; moreover, key decision-makers should consider people's emotional and behavioural responses to tremors when designing plans for mass emergencies following earthquakes, such as the present case study.

Interconnections and Modeling Schemes of Kinesia Paradoxa

This article is about "kinesia paradoxa," a phenomenon presented in Parkinson's disease patients who generally suffer from bradykinesia and freezing of gait (FOG) but under certain circumstances exhibit a sudden, brief period of mobility. The objective of this paper was to identify the mechanisms causing this phenomenon, record possible brain circuits involved, and try to locate interconnections between these circuits. Moreover, we are proposing various modeling schemes in order to form the appropriate conditions for experimental design.

Disaster Risk Perception, Sense of Pace, Evacuation Willingness, and Relocation Willingness of Rural Households in Earthquake-Stricken Areas: Evidence from Sichuan Province, China

Based on survey data from 327 rural households in the areas affected by the Wenchuan Earthquake and Lushan Earthquake in Sichuan Province, this study systematically analyzed disaster risk perception, sense of place, evacuation willingness, and relocation willingness among residents in these earthquake-stricken areas. Further, this study constructed an ordinal logistic regression analysis to probe the correlations between residents’ disaster risk perception or sense of place and evacuation willingness and relocation willingness, respectively. The results showed that (1) faced with the threat of earthquake disasters, residents have a strong willingness to evacuate and relocate. Specifically, 93% and 78% of the residents in the Wenchuan Earthquake and Lushan Earthquake areas were willing to evacuate and relocate, respectively, whereas 4% and 17% of the residents were unwilling to evacuate and relocate, respectively. (2) Place dependence and the severity of disaster occurrence were significantly positively correlated with residents’ evacuation willingness, while the interaction term between place dependence and the severity of disaster occurrence was negatively related to residents’ evacuation willingness. Specifically, when everything else remains constant, every one-unit increase in place dependence and severity corresponds to increases in the odds of willingness to evacuate by factors of 0.042 and 0.051, respectively; every one-unit increase in place dependence × severity corresponds to a decrease in the odds of willingness to evacuation by a factor of 0.004. (3) Place identity was significantly negatively correlated with residents’ relocation willingness, while place dependence and severity of disaster occurrence were positively related to residents’ relocation willingness. The interaction term between place dependence and the severity of disaster occurrence as well as the interaction term between place identity and severity of disaster occurrence were significantly negatively correlated with residents’ relocation willingness. Specifically, every one-unit increase in place identity corresponds to a decrease in the odds of willingness to relocate by a factor of 0.034, while every one-unit increase in place dependence and severity corresponds to increases in the odds of willingness to relocate by factors of 0.041 and 0.028, respectively, and every one-unit increase in place dependence × severity and place identity × severity corresponds to decreases in the odds of willingness to relocate by factors of 0.003 and 0.003, respectively.

Disaster Risk Perception, Sense of Pace, Evacuation Willingness, and Relocation Willingness of Rural Households in Earthquake-Stricken Areas: Evidence from Sichuan Province, China

Based on survey data from 327 rural households in the areas affected by the Wenchuan Earthquake and Lushan Earthquake in Sichuan Province, this study systematically analyzed disaster risk perception, sense of place, evacuation willingness, and relocation willingness among residents in these earthquake-stricken areas. Further, this study constructed an ordinal logistic regression analysis to probe the correlations between residents' disaster risk perception or sense of place and evacuation willingness and relocation willingness, respectively. The results showed that (1) faced with the threat of earthquake disasters, residents have a strong willingness to evacuate and relocate. Specifically, 93% and 78% of the residents in the Wenchuan Earthquake and Lushan Earthquake areas were willing to evacuate and relocate, respectively, whereas 4% and 17% of the residents were unwilling to evacuate and relocate, respectively. (2) Place dependence and the severity of disaster occurrence were significantly positively correlated with residents' evacuation willingness, while the interaction term between place dependence and the severity of disaster occurrence was negatively related to residents' evacuation willingness. Specifically, when everything else remains constant, every one-unit increase in place dependence and severity corresponds to increases in the odds of willingness to evacuate by factors of 0.042 and 0.051, respectively; every one-unit increase in place dependence × severity corresponds to a decrease in the odds of willingness to evacuation by a factor of 0.004. (3) Place identity was significantly negatively correlated with residents' relocation willingness, while place dependence and severity of disaster occurrence were positively related to residents' relocation willingness. The interaction term between place dependence and the severity of disaster occurrence as well as the interaction term between place identity and severity of disaster occurrence were significantly negatively correlated with residents' relocation willingness. Specifically, every one-unit increase in place identity corresponds to a decrease in the odds of willingness to relocate by a factor of 0.034, while every one-unit increase in place dependence and severity corresponds to increases in the odds of willingness to relocate by factors of 0.041 and 0.028, respectively, and every one-unit increase in place dependence × severity and place identity × severity corresponds to decreases in the odds of willingness to relocate by factors of 0.003 and 0.003, respectively.

Financial Preparation, Disaster Experience, and Disaster Risk Perception of Rural Households in Earthquake-Stricken Areas: Evidence From the Wenchuan and Lushan Earthquakes in China's Sichuan Province

Sichuan is a province in Southwest China that is famous worldwide for its earthquakes. However, few quantitative studies in China have probed the correlations between rural households’ financial preparation, disaster experience, and disaster-risk perception. Using survey data of 327 rural households from four areas stricken by the Wenchuan Earthquake and Lushan Earthquake in Sichuan, the ordinary least square (OLS) method was used to quantitatively explore the correlations between these three factors. The results show that rural households’ total family cash income, asset diversity, and whether rural households can borrow money from relatives and friends whenever there is a catastrophe such as an earthquake are significantly negatively correlated with the probability of disaster occurrence. Asset diversity and whether rural households can borrow money from banks whenever there is a catastrophe such as an earthquake are significantly positively related to the severity of disaster occurrence. The severity of residents’ disaster experience is not significantly correlated with the probability of disaster occurrence, but is significantly positively related to the severity of the disaster. The research results can provide useful enlightenment for the improvement of financial preparedness and disaster risk management for rural households in earthquake-stricken areas.

Residents' Reactions to Earthquake Early Warnings in Japan

This article empirically examines the effectiveness of earthquake early warning (EEW) in Japan based on experiences of residents who received warnings before earthquake shaking occurred. In Study 1, a survey (N = 299) was conducted to investigate residents' experiences of, and reactions to, an EEW issued in Gunma and neighboring regions on June 17, 2018. The main results were as follows. (1) People's primary reactions to the EEW were mental, not physical, and thus motionless. Most residents stayed still, not for safety reasons, but because they were focusing on mentally bracing themselves. (2) Residents perceived the EEW to be effective because it enabled them to mentally prepare, rather than take physical protective actions, before strong shaking arrived. (3) In future, residents anticipate that on receipt of an EEW they would undertake mental preparation as opposed to physical protective actions. In Study 2, a survey (N = 450) was conducted on another EEW issued for an earthquake offshore of Chiba Prefecture on July 7, 2018. Results were in line with those of Study 1, suggesting that the findings described above are robust. Finally, given people's lack of impetus to undertake protective action on receipt of an EEW, this article discusses ways to enhance such actions.

Learning from the rubble: the case of Christchurch, New Zealand, after the 2010 and 2011 earthquakes

Learning after a disaster is crucial in creating more resilient places. However, many societies are repeatedly overwhelmed by disasters. This can be because of missed opportunities to learn in post-disaster settings or because of actions implemented that seem to be highly relevant to recovery in the short term, but potentially constrain aspirations in the longer term. This paper assesses learning processes among state and non-state actors and the ways in which these are bridged and scaled up to wider improvements in governance. Aiming to enrich understanding of post-disaster learning, it explores different actors' response actions after the earthquakes in Christchurch, New Zealand, in 2010 and 2011. On the one hand, 'learning by doing' is occurring, yet, on the other hand, systemic learning is hindered by mismatches between top-down steering and bottom-up initiatives. The study concludes that better linking and synergising of learning processes among different levels is vital for enhancing resilience in post-disaster societies.

Perceptions of risk characteristics of earthquakes compared to other hazards and their impact on risk tolerance

People tolerate different levels of risk owing to a variety of hazards. Previous research shows that the psychometric properties of hazards predict people's tolerance of them. However, this work has not taken into account events such as earthquakes. The present study tested how earthquakes score vis-à-vis risk properties and risk tolerance as compared to five other familiar hazards. Participants from Wellington, New Zealand (N=139) rated these six hazards using measures of risk characteristics and risk tolerance. Participants demonstrated different levels of risk tolerance for the different hazards and viewed earthquakes as having similar risk features to nuclear power. They also preferred different risk mitigation strategies for earthquakes (more government funding) to the other five hazards (stronger legislation). In addition, earthquake risk tolerance was predicted by different risk characteristics than the other five hazards. These findings will help risk communicators in identifying which risk characteristics to target to influence citizens' risk tolerance.

Residents' Disaster Preparedness after the Meinong Taiwan Earthquake: A Test of Protection Motivation Theory

Because effective preparations are required to mitigate disaster impacts before implementing effective interventions, it is important to understand why people do or do not act on disaster preparedness. This study explores factors influencing residents’ intentions and actual behaviors following the 2016 Kaohsiung Meinong earthquake in southern Taiwan. Protection Motivation Theory was used to develop a hypothesized model to test hypotheses regarding residents’ disaster preparedness, and structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to test the model. Data were comprised of 286 valid responses from seven major administration areas in Tainan, Taiwan. Self-efficacy, response-efficacy, and obstacles were significantly correlated with behavioral intentions and actual disaster preparedness behaviors. SEM results revealed that (a) the model fit the data well, (b) the relationship between risk perception and response-efficacy was fully mediated by behavioral intention, and (c) self-efficacy and obstacles were partially mediated by behavioral intention. Behavioral intent and actual disaster preparedness behavior are related but not equal. The main factors affecting actual disaster preparedness behavior are self-efficacy and obstacles. Therefore, strategies like drills or workshops can improve disaster-preparedness knowledge and capabilities and reduce difficulties of implementing disaster preparedness. To improve health and well-being, healthcare providers should promote disaster preparedness by interventions to increase self-efficacy during disasters.

Developing a database for pedestrians' earthquake emergency evacuation in indoor scenarios

With the booming development of evacuation simulation software, developing an extensive database in indoor scenarios for evacuation models is imperative. In this paper, we conduct a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the collected videotapes and aim to provide a complete and unitary database of pedestrians’ earthquake emergency response behaviors in indoor scenarios, including human-environment interactions. Using the qualitative analysis method, we extract keyword groups and keywords that code the response modes of pedestrians and construct a general decision flowchart using chronological organization. Using the quantitative analysis method, we analyze data on the delay time, evacuation speed, evacuation route and emergency exit choices. Furthermore, we study the effect of classroom layout on emergency evacuation. The database for indoor scenarios provides reliable input parameters and allows the construction of real and effective constraints for use in software and mathematical models. The database can also be used to validate the accuracy of evacuation models.

Behavioral Response in the Immediate Aftermath of Shaking: Earthquakes in Christchurch and Wellington, New Zealand, and Hitachi, Japan

This study examines people’s response actions in the first 30 min after shaking stopped following earthquakes in Christchurch and Wellington, New Zealand, and Hitachi, Japan. Data collected from 257 respondents in Christchurch, 332 respondents in Hitachi, and 204 respondents in Wellington revealed notable similarities in some response actions immediately after the shaking stopped. In all four events, people were most likely to contact family members and seek additional information about the situation. However, there were notable differences among events in the frequency of resuming previous activities. Actions taken in the first 30 min were weakly related to: demographic variables, earthquake experience, contextual variables, and actions taken during the shaking, but were significantly related to perceived shaking intensity, risk perception and affective responses to the shaking, and damage/infrastructure disruption. These results have important implications for future research and practice because they identify promising avenues for emergency managers to communicate seismic risks and appropriate responses to risk area populations.