Linking macrotrends and microrates: Re-evaluating microevolutionary support for Cope's rule

Ecological determinants of Cope's rule and its inverse

Cope's rule posits that evolution gradually increases the body size in lineages. Over the last decades, two schools of thought have fueled a debate on the applicability of Cope's rule by reporting empirical evidence, respectively, for and against Cope's rule. The apparent contradictions thus documented highlight the need for a comprehensive process-based synthesis through which both positions of this debate can be understood and reconciled. Here, we use a process-based community-evolution model to investigate the eco-evolutionary emergence of Cope's rule. We report three characteristic macroevolutionary patterns, of which only two are consistent with Cope's rule. First, we find that Cope's rule applies when species interactions solely depend on relative differences in body size and the risk of lineage extinction is low. Second, in environments with higher risk of lineage extinction, the recurrent evolutionary elimination of top predators induces cyclic evolution toward larger body sizes, according to a macroevolutionary pattern we call the recurrent Cope's rule. Third, when interactions between species are determined not only by their body sizes but also by their ecological niches, the recurrent Cope's rule may get inverted, leading to cyclic evolution toward smaller body sizes. This recurrent inverse Cope's rule is characterized by highly dynamic community evolution, involving the diversification of species with large body sizes and the extinction of species with small body sizes. To our knowledge, these results provide the first theoretical foundation for reconciling the contrasting empirical evidence reported on body-size evolution.

Maternal effects do not resolve the paradox of stasis in birth weight in a wild red deer populaton

In natural populations, quantitative traits seldom show short-term evolution at the rate predicted by evolutionary models. Resolving this "paradox of stasis" is a key goal in evolutionary biology, as it directly challenges our capacity to predict evolutionary change. One particularly promising hypothesis to explain the lack of evolutionary responses in a key offspring trait, body weight, is that positive selection on juveniles is counterbalanced by selection against maternal investment in offspring growth, given that reproduction is costly for the mothers. Here, we used data from one of the longest individual-based studies of a wild mammal population to test this hypothesis. We first showed that despite positive directional selection on birth weight, and heritable variation for this trait, no genetic change has been observed for birth weight over the past 47 years in the study population. Contrarily to our expectation, we found no evidence of selection against maternal investment in birth weight-if anything, selection favors mothers that produce large calves. Accordingly, we show that genetic change in birth weight over the study period is actually lower than that predicted from models including selection on maternal performance; ultimately our analysis here only deepens rather than resolves the paradox of stasis.

Energetic constraints on body-size niches in a resource-limited marine environment

Body size of life on the Earth spans many orders of magnitude, and with it scales the energetic requirements of organisms. Thus, changes in environmental energy should impact community body-size distributions in predictable ways by reshaping ecological and niche dynamics. We examine how carbon, oxygen and temperature, three energetic drivers, impact community size-based assembly in deep-sea bivalves. We demonstrate that body-size distributions are influenced by multiple energetic constraints. Relaxation in these constraints leads to an expansion of body-size niche space through the addition of novel large size classes, increasing the standard deviation and mean of the body-size distribution. With continued Anthropogenic increases in temperature and reductions in carbon availability and oxygen in most ocean basins, our results point to possible radical shifts in invertebrate body size with the potential to impact ecosystem function.

The pace of modern life, revisited

Wild populations must continuously respond to environmental changes or they risk extinction. Those responses can be measured as phenotypic rates of change, which can allow us to predict contemporary adaptive responses, some of which are evolutionary. About two decades ago, a database of phenotypic rates of change in wild populations was compiled. Since then, researchers have used (and expanded) this database to examine phenotypic responses to specific types of human disturbance. Here, we update the database by adding 5675 new estimates of phenotypic change. Using this newer version of the data base, now containing 7338 estimates of phenotypic change, we revisit the conclusions of four published articles. We then synthesize the expanded database to compare rates of change across different types of human disturbance. Analyses of this expanded database suggest that: (i) a small absolute difference in rates of change exists between human disturbed and natural populations, (ii) harvesting by humans results in higher rates of change than other types of disturbance, (iii) introduced populations have increased rates of change, and (iv) body size does not increase through time. Thus, findings from earlier analyses have largely held-up in analyses of our new database that encompass a much larger breadth of species, traits, and human disturbances. Lastly, we use new analyses to explore how various types of human disturbances affect rates of phenotypic change, and we call for this database to serve as a steppingstone for further analyses to understand patterns of contemporary phenotypic change.

Endless forms most stupid, icky, and small: The preponderance of noncharismatic invertebrates as integral to a biologically sound view of life

Big, beautiful organisms are useful for biological education, increasing evolution literacy, and biodiversity conservation. But if educators gloss over the ubiquity of streamlined and miniaturized organisms, they unwittingly leave students and the public vulnerable to the idea that the primary evolutionary plot of every metazoan lineage is "progressive" and "favors" complexity. We show that simple, small, and intriguingly repulsive invertebrate animals provide a counterpoint to misconceptions about evolution. Our examples can be immediately deployed in biology courses and outreach. This context emphasizes that chordates are not the pinnacle of evolution. Rather, in the evolution of animals, miniaturization, trait loss, and lack of perfection are at least as frequent as their opposites. Teaching about invertebrate animals in a "tree thinking" context uproots evolution misconceptions (for students and the public alike), provides a mental scaffold for understanding all animals, and helps to cultivate future ambassadors and experts on these little-known, weird, and fascinating taxa.

Extinction and the temporal distribution of macroevolutionary bursts

Phenotypic evolution through deep time is slower than expected from microevolutionary rates. This is the paradox of stasis. Previous models suggest stasis occurs because populations track adaptive peaks that remain relatively stable on million‐year intervals, raising the equally perplexing question of why these large changes are so rare. Here, we consider the possibility that peaks can move more rapidly than populations can adapt, resulting in extinction. We model peak movement with explicit population dynamics, parameterized with published microevolutionary estimates. Allowing extinction greatly increases the parameter space of peak movements that yield the appearance of stasis observed in real data through deep time. Extreme peak displacements, regardless of their frequency, will rarely result in an equivalent degree of trait evolution because of extinction. Thus, larger peak displacements will rarely be inferred using trait data from extant species or observed in fossil records. Our work highlights population ecology as an important contributor to macroevolutionary dynamics, presenting an alternative perspective on the paradox of stasis, where apparent constraint on phenotypic evolution in deep time reflects our restricted view of the subset of earth's lineages that were fortunate enough to reside on relatively stable peaks.

The pace of modern culture

Here we investigate the evolutionary dynamics of several kinds of modern cultural artefacts-pop music, novels, the clinical literature and cars-as well as a collection of organic populations. In contrast to the general belief that modern culture evolves very quickly, we show that rates of modern cultural evolution are comparable to those of many animal populations. Using time-series methods, we show that much of modern culture is shaped by either stabilizing or directional forces or both and that these forces partly regulate the rates at which different traits evolve. We suggest that these forces are probably cultural selection and that the evolution of many artefact traits can be explained by a shifting-optimum model of cultural selection that, in turn, rests on known psychological biases in aesthetic appreciation. In sum, our results demonstrate the deep unity of the processes and patterns of cultural and organic evolution.

Cope's Rule in a modular organism: Directional evolution without an overarching macroevolutionary trend

Cope's Rule describes increasing body size in evolutionary lineages through geological time. This pattern has been documented in unitary organisms but does it also apply to module size in colonial organisms? We address this question using 1169 cheilostome bryozoans ranging through the entire 150 million years of their evolutionary history. The temporal pattern evident in cheilostomes as a whole shows no overall change in zooid (module) size. However, individual subclades show size increases: within a genus, younger species often have larger zooids than older species. Analyses of (paleo)latitudinal shifts show that this pattern cannot be explained by latitudinal effects (Bergmann's Rule) coupled with younger species occupying higher latitudes than older species (an "out of the tropics" hypothesis). While it is plausible that size increase was linked to the advantages of large zooids in feeding, competition for trophic resources and living space, other proposed mechanisms for Cope's Rule in unitary organisms are either inapplicable to cheilostome zooid size or cannot be evaluated. Patterns and mechanisms in colonial organisms cannot and should not be extrapolated from the better-studied unitary organisms. And even if macroevolution simply comprises repeated rounds of microevolution, evolutionary processes occurring within lineages are not always detectable from macroevolutionary patterns.

No evidence that warmer temperatures are associated with selection for smaller body sizes

Reductions in animal body size over recent decades are often interpreted as an adaptive evolutionary response to climate warming. However, for reductions in size to reflect adaptive evolution, directional selection on body size within populations must have become negative, or where already negative, to have become more so, as temperatures increased. To test this hypothesis, we performed traditional and phylogenetic meta-analyses of the association between annual estimates of directional selection on body size from wild populations and annual mean temperatures from 39 longitudinal studies. We found no evidence that warmer environments were associated with selection for smaller size. Instead, selection consistently favoured larger individuals, and was invariant to temperature. These patterns were similar in ectotherms and endotherms. An analysis using year rather than temperature revealed similar patterns, suggesting no evidence that selection has changed over time, and also indicating that the lack of association with annual temperature was not an artefact of choosing an erroneous time window for aggregating the temperature data. Although phenotypic trends in size will be driven by a combination of genetic and environmental factors, our results suggest little evidence for a necessary ingredient-negative directional selection-for declines in body size to be considered an adaptive evolutionary response to changing selection pressures.

Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient

Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species.

It is unclear whether species’ responses to climate change tend to be adaptive or sufficient to keep up with climate change. Here, Radchuk et al. perform a meta-analysis showing that in birds phenology has advanced adaptively in some species, though not all the way to the new optima.

Approaches for testing hypotheses for the hypometric scaling of aerobic metabolic rate in animals

Hypometric scaling of aerobic metabolism [larger organisms have lower mass-specific metabolic rates (MR/g)] is nearly universal for interspecific comparisons among animals, yet we lack an agreed upon explanation for this pattern. If physiological constraints on the function of larger animals occur and limit MR/g, these should be observable as direct constraints on animals of extant species and/or as evolved responses to compensate for the proposed constraint. There is evidence for direct constraints and compensatory responses to O2 supply constraint in skin-breathing animals, but not in vertebrates with gas-exchange organs. The duration of food retention in the gut is longer for larger birds and mammals, consistent with a direct constraint on nutrient uptake across the gut wall, but there is little evidence for evolving compensatory responses to gut transport constraints in larger animals. Larger placental mammals (but not marsupials or birds) show evidence of greater challenges with heat dissipation, but there is little evidence for compensatory adaptations to enhance heat loss in larger endotherms, suggesting that metabolic rate (MR) more generally balances heat loss for thermoregulation in endotherms. Size-dependent patterns in many molecular, physiological, and morphological properties are consistent with size-dependent natural selection, such as stronger selection for neurolocomotor performance and growth rate in smaller animals and stronger selection for safety and longevity in larger animals. Hypometric scaling of MR very likely arises from different mechanisms in different taxa and conditions, consistent with the diversity of scaling slopes for MR.

Parasites favour intermediate nestling mass and brood size in cliff swallows

A challenge of life-history theory is to explain why animal body size does not continue to increase, given various advantages of larger size. In birds, body size of nestlings and the number of nestlings produced (brood size) have occasionally been shown to be constrained by higher predation on larger nestlings and those from larger broods. Parasites also are known to have strong effects on life-history traits in birds, but whether parasitism can be a driver for stabilizing selection on nestling body size or brood size is unknown. We studied patterns of first-year survival in cliff swallows (Petrochelidon pyrrhonota) in western Nebraska in relation to brood size and nestling body mass in nests under natural conditions and in those in which hematophagous ectoparasites had been removed by fumigation. Birds from parasitized nests showed highest first-year survival at the most common, intermediate brood-size and nestling-mass categories, but cliff swallows from nonparasitized nests had highest survival at the heaviest nestling masses and no relationship with brood size. A survival analysis suggested stabilizing selection on brood size and nestling mass in the presence (but not in the absence) of parasites. Parasites apparently favour intermediate offspring size and number in cliff swallows and produce the observed distributions of these traits, although the mechanisms are unclear. Our results emphasize the importance of parasites in life-history evolution.

A new explanation for unexpected evolution in body size

Bigger is apparently frequently fitter, and body size is typically heritable, so why don't animals in wild populations evolve towards larger sizes? Different explanations have been proposed for this apparent "paradox of stasis." A new study of snow voles in the Swiss Alps finds higher survival in animals with larger body mass and heritability of body mass, but, surprisingly, a genetic decline in body mass is also indicated. The authors suggest a novel explanation for this observation: the appearance of positive phenotypic selection is driven by a confounding variable of the age at which a juvenile is measured, whereas the evolutionarily relevant selection actually acts negatively on mass via its association with development time. Thus, genes for larger mass are not actually "fitter" because they are associated with longer development times, and juvenile snow voles with longer development times run the risk of not completing development before the first winter snow. However, the genetic decline in body size is not apparent at the phenotypic level, presumably because of countervailing trends in environmental effects on the phenotype.

Bigger Is Fitter? Quantitative Genetic Decomposition of Selection Reveals an Adaptive Evolutionary Decline of Body Mass in a Wild Rodent Population

In natural populations, quantitative trait dynamics often do not appear to follow evolutionary predictions. Despite abundant examples of natural selection acting on heritable traits, conclusive evidence for contemporary adaptive evolution remains rare for wild vertebrate populations, and phenotypic stasis seems to be the norm. This so-called “stasis paradox” highlights our inability to predict evolutionary change, which is especially concerning within the context of rapid anthropogenic environmental change. While the causes underlying the stasis paradox are hotly debated, comprehensive attempts aiming at a resolution are lacking. Here, we apply a quantitative genetic framework to individual-based long-term data for a wild rodent population and show that despite a positive association between body mass and fitness, there has been a genetic change towards lower body mass. The latter represents an adaptive response to viability selection favouring juveniles growing up to become relatively small adults, i.e., with a low potential adult mass, which presumably complete their development earlier. This selection is particularly strong towards the end of the snow-free season, and it has intensified in recent years, coinciding which a change in snowfall patterns. Importantly, neither the negative evolutionary change, nor the selective pressures that drive it, are apparent on the phenotypic level, where they are masked by phenotypic plasticity and a non causal (i.e., non genetic) positive association between body mass and fitness, respectively. Estimating selection at the genetic level enabled us to uncover adaptive evolution in action and to identify the corresponding phenotypic selective pressure. We thereby demonstrate that natural populations can show a rapid and adaptive evolutionary response to a novel selective pressure, and that explicitly (quantitative) genetic models are able to provide us with an understanding of the causes and consequences of selection that is superior to purely phenotypic estimates of selection and evolutionary change.

A population of snow voles provides a rare example of contemporary adaptive evolution in the wild, but without a quantitative genetic perspective this genetic change, and the selective pressure that underlies it, would have gone undetected.

Biologists struggle to demonstrate adaptive evolution in wild populations: while they routinely observe natural selection on heritable traits, in only a handful of cases could they demonstrate an evolutionary response. Although various explanations for this paradox have been proposed, comprehensive empirical tests are lacking. Over the past years, we have therefore studied an alpine population of snow voles. Following all individuals throughout their lives, we found that body mass is heritable and that heavy voles have a higher fitness. Nevertheless, mean body mass did not increase. To resolve this, we disentangled the role of genes and the environment in shaping body mass. This revealed that the population did evolve, but that this was masked by environmental variation. Furthermore, although the genetic change was adaptive, it was opposite to our initial expectation: the population evolved to become lighter, not heavier. This was because although heavy voles have the highest fitness, their mass does not cause high fitness. Instead, it is the voles with the genes for being light that do best, especially when the first winter snow arrives early. This shows that populations can evolve rapidly, but that without a genetic perspective, this, and its underlying mechanism, may go undetected.

Global urban signatures of phenotypic change in animal and plant populations

Humans challenge the phenotypic, genetic, and cultural makeup of species by affecting the fitness landscapes on which they evolve. Recent studies show that cities might play a major role in contemporary evolution by accelerating phenotypic changes in wildlife, including animals, plants, fungi, and other organisms. Many studies of ecoevolutionary change have focused on anthropogenic drivers, but none of these studies has specifically examined the role that urbanization plays in ecoevolution or explicitly examined its mechanisms. This paper presents evidence on the mechanisms linking urban development patterns to rapid evolutionary changes for species that play important functional roles in communities and ecosystems. Through a metaanalysis of experimental and observational studies reporting more than 1,600 phenotypic changes in species across multiple regions, we ask whether we can discriminate an urban signature of phenotypic change beyond the established natural baselines and other anthropogenic signals. We then assess the relative impact of five types of urban disturbances including habitat modifications, biotic interactions, habitat heterogeneity, novel disturbances, and social interactions. Our study shows a clear urban signal; rates of phenotypic change are greater in urbanizing systems compared with natural and nonurban anthropogenic systems. By explicitly linking urban development to traits that affect ecosystem function, we can map potential ecoevolutionary implications of emerging patterns of urban agglomerations and uncover insights for maintaining key ecosystem functions upon which the sustainability of human well-being depends.

Persistent directional selection on body size and a resolution to the paradox of stasis

Directional selection on size is common but often fails to result in microevolution in the wild. Similarly, macroevolutionary rates in size are low relative to the observed strength of selection in nature. We show that many estimates of selection on size have been measured on juveniles, not adults. Further, parents influence juvenile size by adjusting investment per offspring. In light of these observations, we help resolve this paradox by suggesting that the observed upward selection on size is balanced by selection against investment per offspring, resulting in little or no net selection gradient on size. We find that trade-offs between fecundity and juvenile size are common, consistent with the notion of selection against investment per offspring. We also find that median directional selection on size is positive for juveniles but no net directional selection exists for adult size. This is expected because parent-offspring conflict exists over size, and juvenile size is more strongly affected by investment per offspring than adult size. These findings provide qualitative support for the hypothesis that upward selection on size is balanced by selection against investment per offspring, where parent-offspring conflict over size is embodied in the opposing signs of the two selection gradients.