The effects of archipelago spatial structure on island diversity and endemism: predictions from a spatially-structured neutral model

Diversity patterns and speciation processes in a two-island system with continuous migration

Geographic isolation is a central mechanism of speciation, but perfect isolation of populations is rare. Although speciation can be hindered if gene flow is large, intermediate levels of migration can enhance speciation by introducing genetic novelty in the semi-isolated populations or founding small communities of migrants. Here, we consider a two-island neutral model of speciation with continuous migration and study diversity patterns as a function of the migration probability, population size, and number of genes involved in reproductive isolation (dubbed as genome size). For small genomes, low levels of migration induce speciation on the islands that otherwise would not occur. Diversity, however, drops sharply to a single species inhabiting both islands as the migration probability increases. For large genomes, sympatric speciation occurs even when the islands are strictly isolated. Then species richness per island increases with the probability of migration, but the total number of species decreases as they become cosmopolitan. For each genome size, there is an optimal migration intensity for each population size that maximizes the number of species. We discuss the observed modes of speciation induced by migration and how they increase species richness in the insular system while promoting asymmetry between the islands and hindering endemism.

Area, isolation and climate explain the diversity of mammals on islands worldwide

Insular biodiversity is expected to be regulated differently than continental biota, but their determinants remain to be quantified at a global scale. We evaluated the importance of physical, environmental and historical factors on mammal richness and endemism across 5592 islands worldwide. We fitted generalized linear and mixed models to accommodate variation among biogeographic realms and performed analyses separately for bats and non-volants. Richness on islands ranged from one to 234 species, with up to 177 single island endemics. Diversity patterns were most consistently influenced by the islands' physical characteristics. Area positively affected mammal diversity, in particular the number of non-volant endemics. Island isolation, both current and past, was associated with lower richness but greater endemism. Flight capacity modified the relative importance of past versus current isolation, with bats responding more strongly to current and non-volant mammals to past isolation. Biodiversity relationships with environmental factors were idiosyncratic, with a tendency for greater effects sizes with endemism than richness. The historical climatic change was positively associated with endemism. In line with theory, we found that area and isolation were among the strongest drivers of mammalian biodiversity. Our results support the importance of past conditions on current patterns, particularly of non-volant species.

Biogeographic Drivers of Evolutionary Radiations

Some lineages radiate spectacularly when colonizing a region, but others do not. Large radiations are often attributed to species’ adaptation into niches, or to other drivers, such as biogeography including dispersal ability and spatial structure of the landscape. Here we aim to disentangle the factors determining radiation size, by modeling simplified scenarios without the complexity of explicit niches. We build a spatially structured neutral model free from niches and incorporating a form of protracted speciation that accounts for gene flow between populations. We find that a wide range of radiation sizes are possible in this model depending on the combination of geographic isolation and species’ dispersal ability. At extremely low rates of dispersal between patches, each patch maintains its own endemic species. Intermediate dispersal rates foster larger radiations as they allow occasional movement between patches whilst sufficiently restricting gene flow to support further speciation in allopatry. As dispersal rates increase further, a critical point is reached at which demographically identical lineages may vary greatly in radiation size due to rare and stochastic dispersal events. At the critical point in dispersal frequency, some lineages remain a single species for a comparatively long time, whilst others with identical characteristics produce the largest radiations of all via a new mechanism for rapid radiation that we term a ‘radiation cascade’. Given a single species covering many patches connected with gene flow, a radiation cascade is triggered when stochastic dispersal is unusually low for a period, leading to an initial speciation event. This speciation means there are fewer individuals per species and thus further reduced gene flow between conspecifics. Reduced gene flow in turn makes it easier for further speciation to occur. During a radiation cascade, dispersal of individuals between patches continues at the same rate as before, but due to the increasing diversity it primarily introduces novel species that will later speciate, rather than adding to gene flow of existing species. Once a radiation cascade begins, it continues rapidly until it is arrested by a new equilibrium between speciation and extinction. We speculate that such radiation cascades may occur more generally and are not only present in neutral models. This process may help to explain rapid radiation, and the extreme radiation sizes of certain lineages with dispersing ancestors. Whilst niches no doubt play a role in community assembly, our findings lead us to question whether diversification and adaptation into niches is sometimes an effect of speciation and rapid radiation, rather than its cause.

Evolutionary genomics of endangered Hawaiian tree snails (Achatinellidae: Achatinellinae) for conservation of adaptive capacity

Phylogenomic studies can provide insights into speciation, adaptation, and extinction, while providing a roadmap for conservation. Hawaiian tree snails are a model system for an adaptive radiation facing an extinction crisis. In the last 5 years, nearly all populations of Hawaiian tree snails across the 30 remaining species in the subfamily Achatinellinae (Achatinellidae) have declined from hundreds or thousands in the wild down to undetectable levels. Nearly 100 species historically occurred across dramatic environmental gradients on five of the Hawaiian Islands, but habitat loss, overcollection, and predation by invasive species have decimated populations. As such, this system offers the opportunity to integrate efforts to conserve evolutionary potential into conservation planning for a rapidly declining subfamily. Here, we used genome-wide, restriction-site associated DNA sequencing (RADseq), along with mitochondrial genome reconstruction, to resolve evolutionary relationships to inform conservation efforts. Phylogenetic analysis of nearly 400k genome-wide SNPs from 59 populations and 25 species across six genera in the family Achatinellidae, was generally concordant with taxonomy, geography, and mtDNA with several notable exceptions; mtDNA was unable to resolve some deeper nodes (e.g., the monophyly of Achatinella), while SNP data did not resolve as many shallow nodes. Both phylogenetic and coalescent analysis revealed deep divergences between populations within Achatinella mustelina that were consistent with species-level differences. Given cryptic species-level divergence within populations that are geographically proximate, they are at higher risk of extirpation from invasive predators and climate change than previously assumed. This study clarifies evolutionary relationships within this model system for adaptive radiation, forming the basis for conservation strategies such as translocation, captive rearing, and hybridization trials to prevent the loss of capacity to adapt to rapidly changing environmental conditions.

Experimental demonstration of the importance of keystone communities for maintaining metacommunity biodiversity and ecosystem functioning

As local communities within a metacommunity may differ considerably in their contributions to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, it has been suggested that conservation priority should be given to disproportionately important local communities (i.e., keystone communities). However, we know little about what characterizes a keystone community. Using laboratory protist microcosms as the model system, we examined how the environmental uniqueness and location of a local community affect its contributions to the metacommunities. We found that the removal of local communities with unique environmental conditions, which supported endemic species, reduced regional-scale diversity, qualifying them as regional-scale keystone communities. In addition, the local communities possessing unique environmental conditions had greater impacts on ecosystem functions, including biovolume production and particulate organic matter decomposition. We also found that keystone communities for biovolume production were not keystone for organic matter decomposition, and vice versa. Our study, therefore, demonstrates the important role of keystone communities in maintaining biodiversity and functioning of metacommunities.

A global model of island species-area relationships

The increase in species richness with island area (ISAR) is a well-established global pattern, commonly described by the power model, the parameters of which are hypothesized to vary with system isolation and to be indicative of ecological process regimes. We tested a structural equation model of ISAR parameter variation as a function of taxon, isolation, and archipelago configuration, using a globally distributed dataset of 151 ISARs encompassing a range of taxa and archipelago types. The resulting models revealed a negative relationship between ISAR intercept and slope as a function of archipelago species richness, in turn shaped by taxon differences and by the amount and disposition of archipelago area. These results suggest that local-scale (intra-archipelago) processes have a substantial role in determining ISAR form, obscuring the diversity patterns predicted by island theory as a function of archipelago isolation. These findings have implications for the use and interpretation of ISARs as a tool within biogeography, ecology, and conservation.

Comparing spatial diversification and meta-population models in the Indo-Australian Archipelago

Reconstructing the processes that have shaped the emergence of biodiversity gradients is critical to understand the dynamics of diversification of life on Earth. Islands have traditionally been used as model systems to unravel the processes shaping biological diversity. MacArthur and Wilson's island biogeographic model predicts diversity to be based on dynamic interactions between colonization and extinction rates, while treating islands themselves as geologically static entities. The current spatial configuration of islands should influence meta-population dynamics, but long-term geological changes within archipelagos are also expected to have shaped island biodiversity, in part by driving diversification. Here, we compare two mechanistic models providing inferences on species richness at a biogeographic scale: a mechanistic spatial-temporal model of species diversification and a spatial meta-population model. While the meta-population model operates over a static landscape, the diversification model is driven by changes in the size and spatial configuration of islands through time. We compare the inferences of both models to floristic diversity patterns among land patches of the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Simulation results from the diversification model better matched observed diversity than a meta-population model constrained only by the contemporary landscape. The diversification model suggests that the dynamic re-positioning of islands promoting land disconnection and reconnection induced an accumulation of particularly high species diversity on Borneo, which is central within the island network. By contrast, the meta-population model predicts a higher diversity on the mainlands, which is less compatible with empirical data. Our analyses highlight that, by comparing models with contrasting assumptions, we can pinpoint the processes that are most compatible with extant biodiversity patterns.

Empirical phylogenies and species abundance distributions are consistent with preequilibrium dynamics of neutral community models with gene flow

Community characteristics reflect past ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Here, we investigate whether it is possible to obtain realistically shaped modeled communities-that is with phylogenetic trees and species abundance distributions shaped similarly to typical empirical bird and mammal communities-from neutral community models. To test the effect of gene flow, we contrasted two spatially explicit individual-based neutral models: one with protracted speciation, delayed by gene flow, and one with point mutation speciation, unaffected by gene flow. The former produced more realistic communities (shape of phylogenetic tree and species-abundance distribution), consistent with gene flow being a key process in macro-evolutionary dynamics. Earlier models struggled to capture the empirically observed branching tempo in phylogenetic trees, as measured by the gamma statistic. We show that the low gamma values typical of empirical trees can be obtained in models with protracted speciation, in preequilibrium communities developing from an initially abundant and widespread species. This was even more so in communities sampled incompletely, particularly if the unknown species are the youngest. Overall, our results demonstrate that the characteristics of empirical communities that we have studied can, to a large extent, be explained through a purely neutral model under preequilibrium conditions.