Selection on parental performance opposes selection for larger body mass in a wild population of blue tits

Adult telomere length is positively correlated with survival and lifetime reproductive success in a wild passerine

Explaining variation in individual fitness is a key goal in evolutionary biology. Recently, telomeres, repeating DNA sequences capping chromosome ends, have gained attention as a biomarker for body state, physiological costs, and senescence. Existing research has provided mixed evidence for whether telomere length correlates with fitness, including survival and reproductive output. Moreover, few studies have examined how the rate of change in telomere length correlates with fitness in wild populations. Here, we intensively monitored an insular population of house sparrows, and collected longitudinal telomere and life history data (16 years, 1225 individuals). We tested whether telomere length and its rate of change predict fitness measures, namely survival, lifespan and annual and lifetime reproductive effort and success. Telomere length positively predicted short-term survival, independent of age, but did not predict lifespan, suggesting either a diminishing telomere length-survival correlation with age or other extrinsic factors of mortality. The positive association of telomere length with survival translated into reproductive benefits, as birds with longer telomeres produced more genetic recruits, hatchlings and reared more fledglings over their lifetime. In contrast, there was no association between telomere dynamics and annual reproductive output, suggesting telomere dynamics might not reflect the costs of reproduction in this population, potentially masked by variation in individual quality. The rate of change of telomere length did not correlate with neither lifespan nor lifetime reproductive success. Our results provide further evidence that telomere length correlates with fitness, and contribute to our understanding of the selection on, and evolution of, telomere dynamics.

The magnitude of selection on growth varies among years and increases under warming conditions in a subarctic seabird

Because of ongoing rapid climate change, many ecosystems are becoming both warmer and more variable, and these changes are likely to alter the magnitude and variability of natural selection acting on wild populations. Critically, changes and fluctuations in selection can impact both population demography and evolutionary change. Therefore, predicting the impacts of climate change depends on understanding the magnitude and variation in selection on traits across different life stages and environments. Long-term experiments in wild settings are a great opportunity to determine the impact of environmental conditions on selection. Here we examined variability in the strength of selection on size traits of nestling black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) in a 25-year study including a food supplementation experiment on Middleton Island in the Gulf of Alaska. Using mixed effect models, we examined the annual variability of stage-specific and resource-specific selection gradients across 25 years. We found that (a) larger and heavier hatchlings were the most likely to survive during early ontogeny, (b) non-food supplemented younger nestlings in a brood experienced the strongest selection, and (c) warmer conditions increased the magnitude of selection on nestling mass and affected non-food supplemented and second-hatched nestlings the most. Our results suggested that variable resource dynamics likely caused some of the changes in selection from year to year and that warming conditions increased the strength of selection on subarctic seabird growth. However, our experimental manipulation revealed that local environmental heterogeneity could buffer the selection expected from broader climatic changes. Consequently, understanding the interactive effects of local conditions and general changes in climate seems likely to improve our ability to predict future selection gradients.

Atlantic cod individual spatial behaviour and stable isotope associations in a no-take marine reserve

Foraging is a behavioural process and, therefore, individual behaviour and diet are theorized to covary. However, few comparisons of individual behaviour type and diet exist in the wild. We tested whether behaviour type and diet covary in a protected population of Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua. Working in a no-take marine reserve, we could collect data on natural behavioural variation and diet choice with minimal anthropogenic disturbance. We inferred behaviour using acoustic telemetry and diet from stable isotope compositions (expressed as δ13 C and δ15 N values). We further investigated whether behaviour and diet could have survival costs. We found cod with shorter diel vertical migration distances fed at higher trophic levels. Cod δ13 C and δ15 N values scaled positively with body size. Neither behaviour nor diet predicted survival, indicating phenotypic diversity is maintained without survival costs for cod in a protected ecosystem. The links between diet and diel vertical migration highlight that future work is needed to understand whether the shifts in this behaviour during environmental change (e.g. fishing or climate), could lead to trophic cascades.

Does the definition of a novel environment affect the ability to detect cryptic genetic variation?

Anthropogenic change exposes populations to environments that have been rare or entirely absent from their evolutionary past. Such novel environments are hypothesized to release cryptic genetic variation, a hidden store of variance that can fuel evolution. However, support for this hypothesis is mixed. One possible reason is a lack of clarity in what is meant by 'novel environment', an umbrella term encompassing conditions with potentially contrasting effects on the exposure or concealment of cryptic variation. Here, we use a meta-analysis approach to investigate changes in the total genetic variance of multivariate traits in ancestral versus novel environments. To determine whether the definition of a novel environment could explain the mixed support for a release of cryptic genetic variation, we compared absolute novel environments, those not represented in a population's evolutionary past, to extreme novel environments, those involving frequency or magnitude changes to environments present in a population's ancestry. Despite sufficient statistical power, we detected no broad-scale pattern of increased genetic variance in novel environments, and finding the type of novel environment did not explain any significant variation in effect sizes. When effect sizes were partitioned by experimental design, we found increased genetic variation in studies based on broad-sense measures of variance, and decreased variation in narrow-sense studies, in support of previous research. Therefore, the source of genetic variance, not the definition of a novel environment, was key to understanding environment-dependant genetic variation, highlighting non-additive genetic variance as an important component of cryptic genetic variation and avenue for future research.

Maternal effects do not resolve the paradox of stasis in birth weight in a wild red deer populaton

In natural populations, quantitative traits seldom show short-term evolution at the rate predicted by evolutionary models. Resolving this "paradox of stasis" is a key goal in evolutionary biology, as it directly challenges our capacity to predict evolutionary change. One particularly promising hypothesis to explain the lack of evolutionary responses in a key offspring trait, body weight, is that positive selection on juveniles is counterbalanced by selection against maternal investment in offspring growth, given that reproduction is costly for the mothers. Here, we used data from one of the longest individual-based studies of a wild mammal population to test this hypothesis. We first showed that despite positive directional selection on birth weight, and heritable variation for this trait, no genetic change has been observed for birth weight over the past 47 years in the study population. Contrarily to our expectation, we found no evidence of selection against maternal investment in birth weight-if anything, selection favors mothers that produce large calves. Accordingly, we show that genetic change in birth weight over the study period is actually lower than that predicted from models including selection on maternal performance; ultimately our analysis here only deepens rather than resolves the paradox of stasis.

Decomposing phenotypic skew and its effects on the predicted response to strong selection

The major frameworks for predicting evolutionary change assume that a phenotype's underlying genetic and environmental components are normally distributed. However, the predictions of these frameworks may no longer hold if distributions are skewed. Despite this, phenotypic skew has never been decomposed, meaning the fundamental assumptions of quantitative genetics remain untested. Here we demonstrate that the substantial phenotypic skew in the body size of juvenile blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) is driven by environmental factors. Although skew had little impact on our predictions of selection response in this case, our results highlight the impact of skew on the estimation of inheritance and selection. Specifically, the nonlinear parent-offspring regressions induced by skew, alongside selective disappearance, can strongly bias estimates of heritability. The ubiquity of skew and strong directional selection on juvenile body size imply that heritability is commonly overestimated, which may in part explain the discrepancy between predicted and observed trait evolution.

The effective family size of immigrant founders predicts their long-term demographic outcome: From Québec settlers to their 20th-century descendants

Population history reconstruction, using extant genetic diversity data, routinely relies on simple demographic models to project the past through ascending genealogical-tree branches. Because genealogy and genetics are intimately related, we traced descending genealogies of the Québec founders to pursue their fate and to assess their contribution to the present-day population. Focusing on the female and male founder lines, we observed important sex-biased immigration in the early colony years and documented a remarkable impact of these early immigrants on the genetic make-up of 20th-century Québec. We estimated the immigrants’ survival ratio as a proportion of lineages found in the 1931–60 Québec to their number introduced within the immigration period. We assessed the effective family size, EFS, of all immigrant parents and their Québec-born descendants. The survival ratio of the earliest immigrants was the highest and declined over centuries in association with the immigrants’ EFS. Parents with high EFS left plentiful married descendants, putting EFS as the most important variable determining the parental demographic success throughout time for generations ahead. EFS of immigrant founders appears to predict their long-term demographic and, consequently, their genetic outcome. Genealogically inferred immigrants’ "autosomal" genetic contribution to 1931–60 Québec from consecutive immigration periods follow the same yearly pattern as the corresponding maternal and paternal lines. Québec genealogical data offer much broader information on the ancestral diversity distribution than genetic scrutiny of a limited population sample. Genealogically inferred population history could assist studies of evolutionary factors shaping population structure and provide tools to target specific health interventions.

Indirect Genetic Effects: A Cross-disciplinary Perspective on Empirical Studies

Indirect genetic effects (IGE) occur when an individual's phenotype is influenced by genetic variation in conspecifics. Opportunities for IGE are ubiquitous, and, when present, IGE have profound implications for behavioral, evolutionary, agricultural, and biomedical genetics. Despite their importance, the empirical study of IGE lags behind the development of theory. In large part, this lag can be attributed to the fact that measuring IGE, and deconvoluting them from the direct genetic effects of an individual's own genotype, is subject to many potential pitfalls. In this Perspective, we describe current challenges that empiricists across all disciplines will encounter in measuring and understanding IGE. Using ideas and examples spanning evolutionary, agricultural, and biomedical genetics, we also describe potential solutions to these challenges, focusing on opportunities provided by recent advances in genomic, monitoring, and phenotyping technologies. We hope that this cross-disciplinary assessment will advance the goal of understanding the pervasive effects of conspecific interactions in biology.

Differential effects of steroid hormones on levels of broad-sense heritability in a wild bird: possible mechanism of environment × genetic variance interaction?

Genetic variation is one of the key concepts in evolutionary biology and an important prerequisite of evolutionary change. However, we know very little about processes that modulate its levels in wild populations. In particular, we still are to understand why genetic variances often depend on environmental conditions. One of possible environment-sensitive modulators of observed levels of genetic variance are maternal effects. In this study we attempt to experimentally test the hypothesis that maternally transmitted agents (e.g. hormones) may influence the expression of genetic variance in quantitative traits in the offspring. We manipulated the levels of steroid hormones (testosterone and corticosterone) in eggs laid by blue tits in a wild population. Our experimental setup allowed for full crossing of genetic and rearing effects with the experimental manipulation. We observed that birds treated with corticosterone exhibited a significant decrease in broad-sense genetic variance of tarsus length, and an increase in this component in body mass on the 2nd day post-hatching. Our study indicates, that maternally transmitted substances such as hormones may have measurable impact on the levels of genetic variance and hence, on the evolutionary potential of quantitative traits.

Most published selection gradients are underestimated: Why this is and how to fix it

Ecologists and evolutionary biologists routinely estimate selection gradients. Most researchers seek to quantify selection on individual phenotypes, regardless of whether fixed or repeatedly expressed traits are studied. Selection gradients estimated to address such questions are attenuated unless analyses account for measurement error and biological sources of within-individual variation. Estimates of standardized selection gradients published in Evolution between 2010 and 2019 were primarily based on traits measured once (59% of 325 estimates). We show that those are attenuated: bias increases with decreasing repeatability but differently for linear versus nonlinear gradients. Others derived individual-mean trait values prior to analyses (41%), typically using few repeats per individual, which does not remove bias. We evaluated three solutions, all requiring repeated measures: (i) correcting gradients derived from classic models using estimates of trait correlations and repeatabilities, (ii) multivariate mixed-effects models, previously used for estimating linear gradients (seven estimates, 2%), which we expand to nonlinear analyses, and (iii) errors-in-variables models that account for within-individual variance, and are rarely used in selection studies. All approaches produced accurate estimates regardless of repeatability and type of gradient, however, errors-in-variables models produced more precise estimates and may thus be preferable.

The Effects of Weather on Avian Growth and Implications for Adaptation to Climate Change

Climate change is forecasted to generate a range of evolutionary changes and plastic responses. One important aspect of avian responses to climate change is how weather conditions may change nestling growth and development. Early life growth is sensitive to environmental effects and can potentially have long-lasting effects on adult phenotypes and fitness. A detailed understanding of both how and when weather conditions affect the entire growth trajectory of a nestling may help predict population changes in phenotypes and demography under climate change. This review covers three main topics on the impacts of weather variation (air temperature, rainfall, wind speed, solar radiation) on nestling growth. Firstly, we highlight why understanding the effects of weather on nestling growth might be important in understanding adaptation to, and population persistence in, environments altered by climate change. Secondly, we review the documented effects of weather variation on nestling growth curves. We investigate both altricial and precocial species, but we find a limited number of studies on precocial species in the wild. Increasing temperatures and rainfall have mixed effects on nestling growth, while increasing windspeeds tend to have negative impacts on the growth rate of open cup nesting species. Thirdly, we discuss how weather variation might affect the evolution of nestling growth traits and suggest that more estimates of the inheritance of and selection acting on growth traits in natural settings are needed to make evolutionary predictions. We suggest that predictions will be improved by considering concurrently changing selection pressures like urbanization. The importance of adaptive plastic or evolutionary changes in growth may depend on where a species or population is located geographically and the species’ life-history. Detailed characterization of the effects of weather on growth patterns will help answer whether variation in avian growth frequently plays a role in adaption to climate change.

The more you get, the more you give: Positive cascading effects shape the evolutionary potential of prenatal maternal investment

Maternal effects are prevalent in nature and significantly contribute to variation in phenotypic trait expression. However, little attention has been paid to the factors shaping variation in the traits mediating these effects (maternal effectors). Specific maternal effectors are often not identified, and typically they are assumed to be inherited in an additive genetic and autosomal manner. Given that these effectors can cause long‐lasting effects on offspring phenotype, it is likely that they may also affect themselves in the next generation. Although the existence of such cascading maternal effects has been discussed and modeled, empirical examples of such effects are rare, let alone quantitative estimates of their strength and evolutionary consequences. Here, we demonstrate that the investment a mother makes in her eggs positively affects the egg investment of her daughters. Through reciprocally crossing artificially selected lines for divergent prenatal maternal investment in Japanese quail (Coturnix japonica), we demonstrate that the size of eggs daughters lay resembles the egg size of their maternal line significantly more than that of their paternal line, highlighting that egg size is in part maternally inherited. Correspondingly, we find that variation in the daughters' egg size is in part determined by maternal identity, in addition to substantial additive genetic effects. Furthermore, this maternal variance in offspring egg size is fully explained by maternal egg size, demonstrating the presence of a positive cascading effect of maternal egg size on offspring egg size. Finally, we use an evolutionary model to quantify the consequences of covariance between cascading maternal and additive genetic effects for both maternal effector and offspring body mass evolution. Our study demonstrates that by amplifying the amount of variation available for selection to act on, positive cascading maternal effects can significantly enhance the evolutionary potential of maternal effectors and the offspring traits that they affect.

Estimating selection on the act of inbreeding in a population with strong inbreeding depression

Inbreeding depression is widely regarded as a driving force in the evolution of dispersal, mate choice and sperm selection. However, due to likely costs of inbreeding avoidance, which are poorly understood, it is unclear to what extent selection to avoid inbreeding is expected in nature. Moreover, there are currently very few empirical estimates of the strength of selection against the act of inbreeding (mating with a relative), as opposed to the fitness costs of being inbred. Here, we use data from the individual-based study of red deer on the Scottish island of Rum, a strongly polygynous system which harbours a large inbreeding load, to estimate selection against the act of inbreeding for each sex. We use pedigree and genomic estimates of relatedness between individuals and measure fitness using both lifetime breeding success (number of calves born) and lifetime reproductive success (number of calves surviving to independence), with the latter incorporating inbreeding depression in calf survival. We find for both sexes that the repeatability of the act of inbreeding was low (< 0.1), suggesting little among-individual variation for this trait on which selection can act. Using the genomic measures, there was significant selection against the act of inbreeding in males, but not in females, and there was considerable uncertainty in the estimate in both sexes. We discuss possible explanations for these patterns and their implications for understanding the evolution of inbreeding avoidance in natural populations.

No evidence for sibling or parent-offspring coadaptation in a wild population of blue tits, despite high power

Parent and offspring behaviors are expected to act as both the agents and targets of selection. This may generate parent-offspring coadaptation in which parent and offspring behaviors become genetically correlated in a way that increases inclusive fitness. Cross-fostering has been used to study parent-offspring coadaptation, with the prediction that offspring raised by non-relatives, or parents raising non-relatives, should suffer fitness costs. Using long-term data from more than 400 partially crossed broods of blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus), we show that there is no difference in mass or survival between crossed and non-crossed chicks. However, previous studies for which the evidence for parent-offspring coadaptation is strongest compare chicks from fully crossed broods with those from non-crossed broods. When parent-offspring coadaptation acts at the level of the brood then partial cross-fostering experiments are not expected to show evidence of coadaptation. To test this, we performed an additional experiment (163 broods) in which clutches were either fully crossed, non-crossed, or partially crossed. In agreement with the long-term data, there was no evidence for parent-offspring coadaptation on offspring fitness despite high power. In addition there was no evidence of effects on parental fitness, nor evidence of sibling coadaptation, although the power of these tests was more modest.

A guide to using a multiple-matrix animal model to disentangle genetic and nongenetic causes of phenotypic variance

Non-genetic influences on phenotypic traits can affect our interpretation of genetic variance and the evolutionary potential of populations to respond to selection, with consequences for our ability to predict the outcomes of selection. Long-term population surveys and experiments have shown that quantitative genetic estimates are influenced by nongenetic effects, including shared environmental effects, epigenetic effects, and social interactions. Recent developments to the "animal model" of quantitative genetics can now allow us to calculate precise individual-based measures of non-genetic phenotypic variance. These models can be applied to a much broader range of contexts and data types than used previously, with the potential to greatly expand our understanding of nongenetic effects on evolutionary potential. Here, we provide the first practical guide for researchers interested in distinguishing between genetic and nongenetic causes of phenotypic variation in the animal model. The methods use matrices describing individual similarity in nongenetic effects, analogous to the additive genetic relatedness matrix. In a simulation of various phenotypic traits, accounting for environmental, epigenetic, or cultural resemblance between individuals reduced estimates of additive genetic variance, changing the interpretation of evolutionary potential. These variances were estimable for both direct and parental nongenetic variances. Our tutorial outlines an easy way to account for these effects in both wild and experimental populations. These models have the potential to add to our understanding of the effects of genetic and nongenetic effects on evolutionary potential. This should be of interest both to those studying heritability, and those who wish to understand nongenetic variance.

Environmental coupling of heritability and selection is rare and of minor evolutionary significance in wild populations

Predicting the rate of adaptation to environmental change in wild populations is important for understanding evolutionary change. However, predictions may be unreliable if the two key variables affecting the rate of evolutionary change-heritability and selection-are both affected by the same environmental variable. To determine how general such an environmentally induced coupling of heritability and selection is, and how this may influence the rate of adaptation, we made use of freely accessible, open data on pedigreed wild populations to answer this question at the broadest possible scale. Using 16 populations from 10 vertebrate species, which provided data on 50 traits (relating to body mass, morphology, physiology, behaviour and life history), we found evidence for an environmentally induced relationship between heritability and selection in only 6 cases, with weak evidence that this resulted in an increase or decrease in the expected selection response. We conclude that such a coupling of heritability and selection is unlikely to strongly affect evolutionary change, even though both heritability and selection are commonly postulated to be dependent on the environment.

The Missing Response to Selection in the Wild

Although there are many examples of contemporary directional selection, evidence for responses to selection that match predictions are often missing in quantitative genetic studies of wild populations. This is despite the presence of genetic variation and selection pressures – theoretical prerequisites for the response to selection. This conundrum can be explained by statistical issues with accurate parameter estimation, and by biological mechanisms that interfere with the response to selection. These biological mechanisms can accelerate or constrain this response. These mechanisms are generally studied independently but might act simultaneously. We therefore integrated these mechanisms to explore their potential combined effect. This has implications for explaining the apparent evolutionary stasis of wild populations and the conservation of wildlife.

Recent discoveries at the intersection of quantitative genetics and evolutionary ecology are challenging our views on the potential of wild populations to respond to selection.

Multiple biological mechanisms can disconnect genetic variation from the response to selection in the wild. We highlight areas for future research.

We provide an integrative framework that can be used to qualitatively assess the combined influence of these mechanisms on the response to selection.

Into the wild-WAMBAM goes to Canada

The sixth Wild Animal Models Bi-Annual Meeting was held in July 2017 in Québec, with 42 participants. This report documents the evolution of questions asked and approaches used in evolutionary quantitative genetic studies of wild populations in recent decades, and how these questions and approaches were represented at the recent meeting. We explore how ideas from previous meetings in this series have developed to their present states, and consider how the format of the meetings may be particularly useful at fostering the rapid development and proliferation of ideas and approaches.

Quantitative genetic methods depending on the nature of the phenotypic trait

A consequence of the assumptions of the infinitesimal model, one of the most important theoretical foundations of quantitative genetics, is that phenotypic traits are predicted to be most often normally distributed (so-called Gaussian traits). But phenotypic traits, especially those interesting for evolutionary biology, might be shaped according to very diverse distributions. Here, I show how quantitative genetics tools have been extended to account for a wider diversity of phenotypic traits using first the threshold model and then more recently using generalized linear mixed models. I explore the assumptions behind these models and how they can be used to study the genetics of non-Gaussian complex traits. I also comment on three recent methodological advances in quantitative genetics that widen our ability to study new kinds of traits: the use of "modular" hierarchical modeling (e.g., to study survival in the context of capture-recapture approaches for wild populations); the use of aster models to study a set of traits with conditional relationships (e.g., life-history traits); and, finally, the study of high-dimensional traits, such as gene expression.

Multilevel and sex-specific selection on competitive traits in North American red squirrels

Individuals often interact more closely with some members of the population (e.g., offspring, siblings, or group members) than they do with other individuals. This structuring of interactions can lead to multilevel natural selection, where traits expressed at the group-level influence fitness alongside individual-level traits. Such multilevel selection can alter evolutionary trajectories, yet is rarely quantified in the wild, especially for species that do not interact in clearly demarcated groups. We quantified multilevel natural selection on two traits, postnatal growth rate and birth date, in a population of North American red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus). The strongest level of selection was typically within-acoustic social neighborhoods (within 130 m of the nest), where growing faster and being born earlier than nearby litters was key, while selection on growth rate was also apparent both within-litters and within-study areas. Higher population densities increased the strength of selection for earlier breeding, but did not influence selection on growth rates. Females experienced especially strong selection on growth rate at the within-litter level, possibly linked to the biased bequeathal of the maternal territory to daughters. Our results demonstrate the importance of considering multilevel and sex-specific selection in wild species, including those that are territorial and sexually monomorphic.