Understanding the biological invasion risk posed by the global wildlife trade: propagule pressure drives the introduction and establishment of Nearctic turtles

Forecasting potential invaders to prevent future biological invasions worldwide

The ever-increasing and expanding globalisation of trade and transport underpins the escalating global problem of biological invasions. Developing biosecurity infrastructures is crucial to anticipate and prevent the transport and introduction of invasive alien species. Still, robust and defensible forecasts of potential invaders are rare, especially for species without known invasion history. Here, we aim to support decision-making by developing a quantitative invasion risk assessment tool based on invasion syndromes (i.e., generalising typical attributes of invasive alien species). We implemented a workflow based on 'Multiple Imputation with Chain Equation' to estimate invasion syndromes from imputed datasets of species' life-history and ecological traits and macroecological patterns. Importantly, our models disentangle the factors explaining (i) transport and introduction and (ii) establishment. We showcase our tool by modelling the invasion syndromes of 466 amphibians and reptile species with invasion history. Then, we project these models to amphibians and reptiles worldwide (16,236 species [c.76% global coverage]) to identify species with a risk of being unintentionally transported and introduced, and risk of establishing alien populations. Our invasion syndrome models showed high predictive accuracy with a good balance between specificity and generality. Unintentionally transported and introduced species tend to be common and thrive well in human-disturbed habitats. In contrast, those with established alien populations tend to be large-sized, are habitat generalists, thrive well in human-disturbed habitats, and have large native geographic ranges. We forecast that 160 amphibians and reptiles without known invasion history could be unintentionally transported and introduced in the future. Among them, 57 species have a high risk of establishing alien populations. Our reliable, reproducible, transferable, statistically robust and scientifically defensible quantitative invasion risk assessment tool is a significant new addition to the suite of decision-support tools needed for developing a future-proof preventative biosecurity globally.

Global drivers of the conservation-invasion paradox

The conservation-invasion paradox (CIP) refers to a long-term phenomenon wherein species threatened in their native range can sustain viable populations when introduced to other regions. Understanding the drivers of CIP is helpful for conserving threatened species and managing invasive species, which is unfortunately still lacking. We compiled a global data set of 1071 introduction events, including 960 CIP events (successful establishment of threatened species outside its native range) and 111 non-CIP events (unsuccessful establishment of threatened species outside its native range after introduction), involving 174 terrestrial vertebrates. We then tested the relative importance of various predictors at the location, event, and species levels with generalized linear mixed models and model averaging. Successful CIP events occurred across taxonomic groups and biogeographic realms, especially for the mammal group in the Palearctic and Australia. Locations of successful CIP events had fewer native threat factors, especially less climate warming in invaded regions. The probability of a successful CIP event was highest when species introduction efforts were great and there were more local congeners and fewer natural enemies. These results can inform threatened species ex situ conservation and non-native invasive species mitigation.

Quantifying global colonization pressures of alien vertebrates from wildlife trade

The global trade in live wildlife elevates the risk of biological invasions by increasing colonization pressure (the number of alien species introduced to an area). Yet, our understanding of species traded as aliens remains limited. We created a comprehensive global database on live terrestrial vertebrate trade and use it to investigate the number of traded alien species, and correlates of establishment richness for aliens. We identify 7,780 species involved in this trade globally. Approximately 85.7% of these species are traded as aliens, and 12.2% of aliens establish populations. Countries with greater trading power, higher incomes, and larger human populations import more alien species. These countries, along with island nations, emerge as hotspots for establishment richness of aliens. Colonization pressure and insularity consistently promote establishment richness across countries, while socio-economic factors impact specific taxa. Governments must prioritize policies to mitigate the release or escape of traded animals and protect global biosecurity.

Differentiating wild from captive animals: an isotopic approach

Background

Wildlife farming can be an important but complex tool for conservation. To achieve conservation benefits, wildlife farming should meet a variety of criteria, including traceability conditions to identify the animals' origin. The traditional techniques for discriminating between wild and captive animals may be insufficient to prevent doubts or misdeclaration, especially when labels are not expected or mandatory. There is a pressing need to develop more accurate techniques to discriminate between wild and captive animals and their products. Stable isotope analysis has been used to identify animal provenance, and some studies have successfully demonstrated its potential to differentiate wild from captive animals. In this literature review, we examined an extensive collection of publications to develop an overall picture of the application of stable isotopes to distinguish between wild and captive animals focusing on evaluating the patterns and potential of this tool.

Survey methodology

We searched peer-reviewed publications in the Web of Science database and the references list from the main studies on the subject. We selected and analyzed 47 studies that used δ13C, δ15N, δ2H, δ18O, and δ34S in tissues from fish, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals. We built a database from the isotope ratios and metadata extracted from the publications.

Results

Studies have been using stable isotopes in wild and captive animals worldwide, with a particular concentration in Europe, covering all main vertebrate groups. A total of 80.8% of the studies combined stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen, and 88.2% used at least one of those elements. Fish is the most studied group, while amphibians are the least. Muscle and inert organic structures were the most analyzed tissues (46.81% and 42.55%). δ13C and δ15N standard deviation and range were significantly higher in the wild than in captive animals, suggesting a more variable diet in the first group. δ13C tended to be higher in wild fishes and in captive mammals, birds, reptiles, and amphibians. δ15N was higher in the wild terrestrial animals when controlling for diet. Only 5.7% of the studies failed to differentiate wild and captive animals using stable isotopes.

Conclusions

This review reveals that SIA can help distinguish between wild and captive in different vertebrate groups, rearing conditions, and methodological designs. Some aspects should be carefully considered to use the methodology properly, such as the wild and captivity conditions, the tissue analyzed, and how homogeneous the samples are. Despite the increased use of SIA to distinguish wild from captive animals, some gaps remain since some taxonomic groups (e.g., amphibians), countries (e.g., Africa), and isotopes (e.g., δ2H, δ18O, and δ34S) have been little studied.

Online classified adverts reflect the broader United Kingdom trade in turtles and tortoises rather than drive it

Online sales are increasingly a route by which exotic animals are sold in the global pet trade. There are numerous types of online platforms and transaction types, and dedicated classified advertisement sites are a popular means of buying and selling animals. Despite their large and increasing use, we have a relatively poor understanding of the number of, and taxonomic variation in, the animals sold online. This information may be key in efforts to optimise the welfare of the animals being sold, and the ethics and sustainability of the trade via that platform. To fill this knowledge gap, we monitored and analysed the advertisements of chelonians (turtles and tortoises) placed on one of the United Kingdom's largest dedicated classified ads sites, www.pets4homes.co.uk, over the course of a year, from July 2020 until June 2021. We analysed temporal, taxonomic, and advertiser related trends in the volumes of advertisements placed and compared the prices and the sentiment of language within adverts for different species. We found that the species advertised, the prices requested, and infrequent use of the site by most advertisers is consistent with most adverts being for animals being resold by casual users. Further, we found that turtles were consistently advertised for lower prices and in multiples than tortoises, and that the language with which they were advertised was less positive. We conclude that on this website the online trade reflects the broader trade, rather than drives the sales of chelonians in the UK, and that any interventions aiming to improve welfare and sustainability would be better placed earlier in the supply chain.

Reliability of social media data in monitoring the global pet trade in ants

The global pet trade is a major risk to biodiversity and humans and has become increasingly globalized, diversified, digitalized, and extremely difficult to control. With billions of internet users posting online daily, social media could be a powerful surveillance tool. But it is unknown how reliably social media can track the global pet trade. We tested whether Instagram data predicted the geographic distribution of pet stores and the taxonomic composition of traded species in the emerging pet trade in ants (Hymenoptera, Formicidae). We visited 138 online stores selling ants as pets worldwide and recorded the species traded. We scraped ∼38,000 Instagram posts from ∼6300 users referencing ants as pets and analyzed comments on post and geolocation (available for ∼1800 users). We tested whether the number of Instagram users predicted the number of ant sellers per country and whether the species referenced as pets on Instagram matched the species offered in online stores, with a particular focus on invasive species. The location of Instagram users referencing ants as pets predicted the location of ant sellers across the globe (R²  = 0.87). Instagram data detected 439 of the 631 ant species traded in online stores (70%), including 59 of the 68 invasive species traded (87%). The number of Instagram users referencing a species was a good predictor of the number of sellers offering the species (R²  = 0.77). Overall, Instagram data provided affordable and reliable data for monitoring the emerging pet trade in ants. Easier access to these data would facilitate monitoring of the global pet trade and help implement relevant regulations in a timely manner.

Rarely naturalized, but widespread and even invasive: the paradox of a popular pet terrapin expansion in Eurasia

The North American terrapin, the red-eared slider, has globally recognized invasive status. We built a new extensive database using our own original and literature data on the ecology of this reptile, representing information on 1477 water bodies throughout Eurasia over the last 50 years. The analysis reveals regions of earliest introductions and long-term spatio-temporal dynamics of the expansion covering now 68 Eurasian countries, including eight countries reported here for the first time. We established also long-term trends in terms of numbers of terrapins per aquatic site, habitat occupation, and reproduction success. Our investigation has revealed differences in the ecology of the red-eared slider in different parts of Eurasia. The most prominent expression of diverse signs of invasion success (higher portion of inhabited natural water bodies, higher number of individuals per water body, successful overwintering, occurrence of juvenile individuals, successful reproduction, and establishment of populations) are typical for Europe, West Asia and East Asia and tend to be restricted to coastal regions and islands. Reproduction records coincide well with the predicted potential range based on climatic requirements but records of successful wintering have a wider distribution. This invader provides an excellent and possibly unique (among animals) example of wide alien distribution, without the establishment of reproducing populations, but through the recruitment of new individuals to rising pseudopopulations due to additional releases. Therefore, alongside the potential reproduction range, a cost-effective strategy for population control must take in account the geographical area of successful wintering.

Human activities favour prolific life histories in both traded and introduced vertebrates

Species' life histories determine population demographics and thus the probability that introduced populations establish and spread. Life histories also influence which species are most likely to be introduced, but how such 'introduction biases' arise remains unclear. Here, we investigate how life histories affect the probability of trade and introduction in phylogenetic comparative analyses across three vertebrate classes: mammals, reptiles and amphibians. We find that traded species have relatively high reproductive rates and long reproductive lifespans. Within traded species, introduced species have a more extreme version of this same life history profile. Species in the pet trade also have long reproductive lifespans but lack 'fast' traits, likely reflecting demand for rare species which tend to have slow life histories. We identify multiple species not yet traded or introduced but with life histories indicative of high risk of future trade, introduction and potentially invasion. Our findings suggest that species with high invasion potential are favoured in the wildlife trade and therefore that trade regulation is crucial for preventing future invasions.

Turtles in Malaysia: A Review of Conservation Status and a Call for Research

Simple Summary

Turtles are threatened all over the world. Malaysia has 24 species of turtles. This review focuses on current conservation status and some requirements for sustainability. We propose integrating concepts of ecology and molecular biology to provide almost comprehensive turtle reviews in Malaysia.

Abstract

Approximately 356 species of turtles inhabit saltwater and freshwater habitats globally, except in Antarctica. Twenty-four species of turtles have been reported in Malaysia, four of which are sea turtles. The state of Terengganu harbored the highest number of turtles, with 17 different reported species. Based on the IUCN Red List, 29% of turtle species in Malaysia are critically endangered. In comparison, another 25% are classified as endangered. Likewise, CITES reported that 67% of Malaysia’s turtles are threatened, while 25% are classified as critically endangered. This review discusses the checklists, molecular genetics work, conservation status, recent trends, and recommendations for future research. Factors contributing to their population declines and current endangered status are also discussed.

Threats at home? Assessing the potential ecological impacts and risks of commonly traded pet fishes

Invasive alien species (IAS) are major drivers of global biodiversity loss, and the poorly regulated international pet trade is a source of emerging and future invaders. Predictions of the likely ecological impacts and risks of such IAS have been significantly enhanced in recent years with new metrics, which require application to many more actual and potential IAS. Hence, this study assesses the potential ecological impacts and risks of two readily available pet trade species: goldfish, Carassius auratus, a species with non-native populations worldwide; and white cloud mountain minnow, Tanichthys albonubes, a species with a limited invasion history to date. First, we compared the per capita feeding rates of these non-native species with two European trophically analogous natives – the stone loach, Barbatula barbatula, and the common minnow, Phoxinus phoxinus – using the Comparative Functional Response method. Second, we used foraging experiments in conspecific pairs to determine synergistic, neutral or antagonistic intraspecific interactions. Third, we performed novel object experiments using the two pet trade species to assess boldness, a known “dispersal enhancing trait”. Goldfish had the highest maximum feeding rates of the four species, while white cloud mountain minnows had the lowest. Neutral interactions were observed for all four species in the paired foraging experiments, with goldfish having the highest consumption and white cloud mountain minnows having the lowest. Goldfish demonstrated greater boldness, being more active during the experimental trials and more likely to approach a novel object than white cloud mountain minnows. Further, combining maximum feeding rates, boldness and species availabilities from our survey of pet shops, we assessed the relative invasion risks (RIR) of the two non-natives. This highlighted goldfish as the higher risk and most worthy of management prioritisation, mirroring its more extensive invasion history. We propose that such metrics have potential to direct future IAS policy decisions and management towards the ever-increasing rates of biological invasions worldwide.

The midday sun reveals what the waters hide: Podocnemis unifilis Troschel, 1848 (Testudines, Podocnemididae), another exotic species in the Pantanal of Mato Grosso state

Abstract The process of exotic species introduction is recognized as one of the greatest threats to the ecology and economy of the planet, due to changes in interactions in native biological communities. In this sense, reporting bioinvasions is the first step to understanding its introduction process and creating strategies to mitigate possible socio-environmental damages. Here we report the first records of Podocnemis unifilis introduced in the Northern Pantanal, Mato Grosso, Brazil. We obtained the species’ first records occasionally during 2014 and 2015. In the following years from 2016 to 2019, we carried out systematic observations through nautical incursions on the Paraguay River, between the Sepotuba River mouth and the Taiamã Ecological Station (TES). We also included third part records, when it was possible to prove the species identification and registration sites. Podocnemis unifilis adults, hatchling and nests were recorded at different points along the Paraguay River. Our results indicate that P. unifilis was introduced close to the urban nucleus of Cáceres about 30 years ago. Currently, it has an established population, recording nests and hatchling for years in a row. A particular one is its occurrence at the TES, an important natural fish nursery and refuge for the wetland fauna. Thus, continuous monitoring is suggested from P.unifilis, since the Pantanal’s environment with several different aquatic environments, offers favorable conditions for the species population increase in the Northern Pantanal.

Managing propagule pressure to prevent invasive species establishments: propagule size, number, and risk-release curve

There is considerable evidence that keeping propagule pressure low can drastically reduce establishment probability of potential invasive species. Yet, most management plans and research efforts fail to explicitly acknowledge all three of the components of propagule pressure: size, number, and the risk-release relationship. It is unclear how failing to specify one or more of these components can influence the efficacy of management plans in preventing invasive species establishment. Furthermore, even if all components are acknowledged and quantified, there currently is no mathematical tool available to calculate the levels of propagule pressure that ensure attainment of a predetermined, and system-specific, target establishment probability. Here, we quantify the resulting uncertainty in establishment probability when one or more components of propagule pressure is unknown by using parameter uncertainty analysis on realistic values of propagule pressure. In addition, to aid in the development of management plans that explicitly set propagule pressure limits, we develop a propagule-pressure sensitivity analysis that we use to determine the required reduction in levels for propagule size and number (representative of management actions) to maintain a target establishment probability. We show that the precision of establishment estimates is highly dependent on knowledge of all three propagule pressure components, where the possible range of values for establishment probability can vary by over 50% without full specification. In addition, our sensitivity analysis showed that propagule size and number can be altered independently or in conjunction to lower establishment probability below a target level. Importantly, our sensitivity analysis was able to specifically quantify how much reduction in a propagule pressure component(s) is needed to reach a given target establishment probability. Our findings suggest that quantifying the three components of propagule pressure should be a priority for invasive species prevention moving forward. Furthermore, our sensitivity analysis tool can serve to guide the development of new invasive species management plans in a transparent and quantitative manner. Together with information on the costs associated with approaches to reducing propagule pressure, our tool can be used to identify the most cost-effective approach to prevent invasive species establishments.

Six years of controlling the invasive species Vespa velutina in a Mediterranean island: The promising results of an eradication plan

BACKGROUND

The yellow-legged hornet, Vespa velutina nigrithorax, is an invasive alien species (IAS) which was accidentally introduced in Europe from Asia. This social insect preys primarily on honeybees but also on other pollinators and insects. Consequently, the establishment of this pest has a negative impact on biodiversity, pollination and economy. There is no clear coordination and uniformed methods for eradication measures between countries. Here we present the first field study of the strategy of eradication of the pest species V. velutina that has been conducted in the westernmost Mediterranean archipelago.

RESULTS

We investigated the combination of different eradication methods, such as trapping; the use of the citizen science data for detection of presence, the active search of nests and the removal of nests using mechanical methods. The progression of the number of secondary nests found was 1 (2015), 9 (2016) and 20 (2017), with zero during 2018, 2019 and 2020, and just one embryo nest in 2018. More than half of the nests (58%) were detected thanks to citizen science data. The people sent us adult detections, and we started the triangulation method to find the nests. The last hornet found in the traps was in June 2018.

CONCLUSION

Early detections of the IAS are crucial to minimise their effects, and citizen science may offer an important source of information to determine the presence and distribution of V. velutina. The findings we present here indicate successful management for this globally significant pest and could contribute to advance the 'science of eradication'. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.

Using Google Trends to Determine Current, Past, and Future Trends in the Reptile Pet Trade

Reptiles are one of the most popular exotic pets in the world, with over a third of all described species currently being traded. However, the most commonly available reptiles are typically non-threatened, captive-bred, and/or domestically obtained, which means they are also largely unregulated and unmonitored, resulting in a large portion of the reptile pet trade remaining unknown. In this study, the past, current, and future trends of the most popular reptiles in the pet trade were examined. Google Trends was used to determine the global popularity of the most popular pets from 2004 to 2020 and compared to the results from an online survey sent to individuals involved in the reptile trade. The most popular pets from the previous five years were also compared globally across regions and countries. The results determined that the most popular reptile species during the last decade is by far bearded dragons, followed by ball pythons and leopard geckos. Although the survey results were similar when asked what the top reptiles were, most respondents named ball pythons as the most popular reptile. However, when asked what reptiles had lost the most popularity during the previous decade, the survey respondents named green iguanas, Burmese pythons, chameleons, red-eared sliders, and green anoles, concurring with what was found with Google Trends. The reptiles thought to be more popular in the upcoming decade by the survey participants were blue-tongued skinks, tegus, uromastyx, crested geckos, and ball pythons-most of which did indeed show an increase in popularity during the last decade, as indicated with Google Trends. The results from Google Trends demonstrated that ball pythons and crested geckos have increased their popularity more than any other reptile in the last two decades. Reptile popularity also differed between countries, with bearded dragons the most popular reptile in Australia, Western Europe, the U.S., and Canada. Leopard geckos were the most popular reptile in Italy and Turkey, and ball pythons were the reptile of choice in Mexico, Indonesia, and India. The general finding of this study is that the reptiles declining in popularity were mostly wild-caught or restricted due to regulations, while current and future species were captive-bred and available in many varieties or morphs. The most popular species were also docile, medium-sized, and easy to handle, with relatively simple care requirements. This study demonstrates that Google Trends can be a useful tool for determining relative popularity among reptiles, or any other pet group, with results closely mirroring those obtained through direct surveying of people involved in the pet trade. However, unlike surveys, this analysis is quick, quantifiable, and can show what is popular and in-demand not only at the global level but at much finer scales. Thus, Google Trends can be a valuable tool in many research applications, especially in topics that may otherwise be difficult to monitor and quantify.

Australia’s wish list of exotic pets: biosecurity and conservation implications of desired alien and illegal pet species

Globalisation of the live pet trade facilitates major pathways for the transport and introduction of invasive alien species across longer distances and at higher frequencies than previously possible. Moreover, the unsustainable trade of species is a major driver for the over-exploitation of wild populations. Australia minimises the biosecurity and conservation risk of the international pet trade by implementing highly stringent regulations on the live import and keeping of alien pets beyond its international CITES obligations. However, the public desire to possess prohibited alien pets has never been quantified and represents a number of species that could be acquired illegally or legally under different future legislative conditions. As such, highly desirable species represent an ongoing conservation threat and biosecurity risk via the pet-release invasion pathway.

We aimed to characterise the Australian desire for illegal alien pets and investigate potential sources of external information that can be utilised to predict future desire. Using public live import enquiry records from the Australian Commonwealth Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment as a proxy for alien pet desire, we tested for differences in the proportion of species with threatened listings and records of invasions, after accounting for taxonomy. Additionally, we used a United States of America (U.S.) live imports dataset to infer pet demand in another Western market with less stringent regulations and determined whether species highly desired in Australia had higher U.S. trade demand than would be expected by chance.

The Australian public desire for alien pets is heavily and significantly biased towards species threatened with extinction, species popular in the U.S. trade and species with a history of successful invasions. Not only does this indicate the potential impacts of pet desire on invasion risk and the conservation of threatened species, but we also highlight the potential role of the U.S. trade as an effective predictor for Australian desire. Our research emphasises the value of novel datasets in building predictive capacity for improved biosecurity awareness.

Pet or pest? Stable isotope methods for determining the provenance of an invasive alien species

The illegal pet trade facilitates the global dispersal of invasive alien species (IAS), providing opportunities for new pests to establish in novel recipient environments. Despite the increasing threat of IAS to the environment and economy, biosecurity efforts often lack suitable, scientifically-based methods to make effective management decisions, such as identifying an established IAS population from a single incursion event. We present a proof-of-concept for a new application of a stable isotope technique to identify wild and captive histories of an invasive pet species. Twelve red-eared slider turtles (Trachemys scripta elegans) from historic Australian incursions with putative wild, captive and unknown origins were analysed to: (1) present best-practice methods for stable isotope sampling of T. s. elegans incursions; (2) effectively discriminate between wild and captive groups using stable isotope ratios; and (3) present a framework to expand the methodology for use on other IAS species. A sampling method was developed to obtain carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) stable isotope ratios from the keratin layer of the carapace (shells), which are predominantly influenced by dietary material and trophic level respectively. Both δ13C and δ15N exhibited the potential to distinguish between the wild and captive origins of the samples. Power simulations demonstrated that isotope ratios were consistent across the carapace and a minimum of eight individuals were required to effectively discriminate wild and captive groups, reducing overall sampling costs. Statistical classification effectively separated captive and wild groups by δ15N (captive: δ15N‰ ≥ 9.7‰, minimum of 96% accuracy). This study outlines a practical and accessible method for detecting IAS incursions, to potentially provide biosecurity staff and decision-makers with the tools to quickly identify and manage future IAS incursions.

New aliens in Australia: 18 years of vertebrate interceptions

Abstract ContextAustralia has a high diversity of endemic vertebrate fauna. Yet, transnational human activities continue to increase the rate of transportation, introduction and establishment of new alien vertebrates in Australia, to the detriment of environmental and socioeconomic services. Eradication of invasive vertebrates is often costly and without guarantee of success; therefore, methods for detecting, intercepting and preventing the transport of alien species earlier in the invasion pathway provide substantial benefit. AimTo anticipate emergent threats to Australian biosecurity posed by the transport and introduction of new alien vertebrates over time. MethodsWe collated vertebrate interception data from various mainland Australian State, Territory and Commonwealth government reporting agencies, including data from a previously published study, at both pre-border and post-border stages from 1999 to 2016. Using generalised linear and generalised additive modelling, we predicted trends in interception frequency using predictors such as vertebrate taxa, detection category and alien status. Key resultsInterception frequency increased over time for all vertebrate classes, for pre-border stowaways and for post-border captive and at-large interceptions, with no saturation in the accumulation of new species over time. Five species were responsible for almost half of all incidents, of which red-eared sliders (Trachemys scripta elegans), boa constrictors (Boa constrictor) and corn snakes (Pantherophis guttatus) are prominent in Australia’s illegal alien pet trade. Rose-ringed parakeets (Psittacula krameri) are prominent in the legal alien cage-bird trade, which remains poorly regulated. Asian common toads (Duttaphrynus melanostictus) were frequently detected as stowaways, and most stowaway incidents originated from Southeast Asia, particularly Indonesia, via shipping. Data deficiency for pre-border incidents increased rapidly in 2015 and 2016. ConclusionsAustralia is subject to a persistent and increasing risk of alien vertebrate introductions and incursions over time, owing partly to emergent trends in the alien pet trade as well as increased global trade and tourism. ImplicationsThe future of Australia’s biosecurity remains dependent on stringent border security to prevent the arrival of novel species, but our findings also highlight the importance of ongoing management and control of high-risk species already present, often illegally, within Australia.

Horizon scanning to identify invasion risk of ornamental plants marketed in Spain

Horticulture is one of the main pathways of deliberate introduction of non-native plants, some of which might become invasive. Of the 914 commercial ornamental outdoor plant species sold in Spain, 700 (77%) are non-native (archaeophytes excluded) marketed species. We classified these into six different lists based on their invasion status in Spain and elsewhere, their climatic suitability in Spain and their potential environmental and socioeconomic impacts. We found sufficient information for 270 species. We provide a Priority List of eight regulated invasive species that were still available on the market. We also established an Attention List with 68 non-regulated invasive and potentially invasive species that might cause various impacts. To prioritise the species within the Attention List, we further assessed the risk of invasion of these species by using an adaptation of the Australian WRA protocol and the level of societal interest estimated from values of the Google Trends tool. We also propose a Green List of seven species with probably no potential to become invasive, a Watch List with 27 potentially invasive species with few potential impacts and an Uncertainty List with 161 species of known status but with insufficient information to include them in any of the previous lists. We did not find sufficient information for 430 (61%) of the marketed non-native plant species, which were compiled into a Data Deficient List. Our findings of prohibited species for sale highlight the need for stronger enforcement of the regulations on invasive plant species in Spain. In addition, our results highlight the need for additional information on potential impacts and climate suitability of horticultural plants being sold in Spain, as insufficient information could be found to assess the invasion risk for most species.

A taxonomically and geographically constrained information base limits non-native reptile and amphibian risk assessment: a systematic review

For many taxa, new records of non-native introductions globally occur at a near exponential rate. We undertook a systematic review of peer-reviewed publications on non-native herpetofauna, to assess the information base available for assessing risks of future invasions, resulting in 836 relevant papers. The taxonomic and geographic scope of the literature was also compared to a published database of all known invasions globally. We found 1,116 species of herpetofauna, 95% of which were present in fewer than 12 studies. Nearly all literature on the invasion ecology of herpetofauna has appeared since 2000, with a strong focus on frogs (58%), particularly cane toads (Rhinella marina) and their impacts in Australia. While fewer papers have been published on turtles and snakes, proportionately more species from both these groups have been studied than for frogs. Within each herpetofaunal group, there are a handful of well-studied species: R. marina, Lithobates catesbeianus, Xenopus laevis, Trachemys scripta, Boiga irregularis and Anolis sagrei. Most research (416 papers; 50%) has addressed impacts, with far fewer studies on aspects like trade (2%). Besides Australia (213 studies), most countries have little location-specific peer-reviewed literature on non-native herpetofauna (on average 1.1 papers per established species). Other exceptions were Guam, the UK, China, California and France, but even their publication coverage across established species was not even. New methods for assessing and prioritizing invasive species such as the Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa provide useful frameworks for risk assessment, but require robust species-level studies. Global initiatives, similar to the Global Amphibian Assessment, using the species and taxonomic groups identified here, are needed to derive the level of information across broad geographic ranges required to apply these frameworks. Expansive studies on model species can be used to indicate productive research foci for understudied taxa.

Assessing the relative potential ecological impacts and invasion risks of emerging and future invasive alien species

Invasive alien species (IAS) cause myriad negative impacts, such as ecosystem disruption, human, animal and plant health issues, economic damage and species extinctions. There are many sources of emerging and future IAS, such as the poorly regulated international pet trade. However, we lack methodologies to predict the likely ecological impacts and invasion risks of such IAS which have little or no informative invasion history. This study develops the Relative Impact Potential (RIP) metric, a new measure of ecological impact that incorporates per capita functional responses (FRs) and proxies for numerical responses (NRs) associated with emerging invaders. Further, as propagule pressure is a determinant of invasion risk, we combine the new measure of Pet Propagule Pressure (PPP) with RIP to arrive at a second novel metric, Relative Invasion Risk (RIR). We present methods to calculate these metrics and to display the outputs on intuitive bi- and triplots. We apply RIP/RIR to assess the potential ecological impacts and invasion risks of four commonly traded pet turtles that represent emerging IAS: Trachemysscriptascripta, the yellow-bellied slider; T.s.troostii, the Cumberland slider; Sternotherusodoratus, the common musk turtle; and Kinosternonsubrubrum, the Eastern mud turtle. The high maximum feeding rate and high attack rate of T.s.scripta, combined with its numerical response proxies of lifespan and fecundity, gave it the highest impact potential. It was also the second most readily available according to our UK surveys, indicating a high invasion risk. Despite having the lowest maximum feeding rate and attack rate, S.odoratus has a high invasion risk due to high availability and we highlight this species as requiring monitoring. The RIP/RIR metrics offer two universally applicable methods to assess potential impacts and risks associated with emerging and future invaders in the pet trade and other sources of future IAS. These metrics highlight T.s.scripta as having high impact and invasion risk, corroborating its position on the EU list of 49 IAS of Union Concern. This suggests our methodology and metrics have great potential to direct future IAS policy decisions and management. This, however, relies on collation and generation of new data on alien species functional responses, numerical responses and their proxies, and imaginative measures of propagule pressure.

Assessing the relative potential ecological impacts and invasion risks of emerging and future invasive alien species

Invasive alien species (IAS) cause myriad negative impacts, such as ecosystem disruption, human, animal and plant health issues, economic damage and species extinctions. There are many sources of emerging and future IAS, such as the poorly regulated international pet trade. However, we lack methodologies to predict the likely ecological impacts and invasion risks of such IAS which have little or no informative invasion history. This study develops the Relative Impact Potential (RIP) metric, a new measure of ecological impact that incorporates per capita functional responses (FRs) and proxies for numerical responses (NRs) associated with emerging invaders. Further, as propagule pressure is a determinant of invasion risk, we combine the new measure of Pet Propagule Pressure (PPP) with RIP to arrive at a second novel metric, Relative Invasion Risk (RIR). We present methods to calculate these metrics and to display the outputs on intuitive bi- and triplots. We apply RIP/RIR to assess the potential ecological impacts and invasion risks of four commonly traded pet turtles that represent emerging IAS: Trachemysscriptascripta, the yellow-bellied slider; T.s.troostii, the Cumberland slider; Sternotherusodoratus, the common musk turtle; and Kinosternonsubrubrum, the Eastern mud turtle. The high maximum feeding rate and high attack rate of T.s.scripta, combined with its numerical response proxies of lifespan and fecundity, gave it the highest impact potential. It was also the second most readily available according to our UK surveys, indicating a high invasion risk. Despite having the lowest maximum feeding rate and attack rate, S.odoratus has a high invasion risk due to high availability and we highlight this species as requiring monitoring. The RIP/RIR metrics offer two universally applicable methods to assess potential impacts and risks associated with emerging and future invaders in the pet trade and other sources of future IAS. These metrics highlight T.s.scripta as having high impact and invasion risk, corroborating its position on the EU list of 49 IAS of Union Concern. This suggests our methodology and metrics have great potential to direct future IAS policy decisions and management. This, however, relies on collation and generation of new data on alien species functional responses, numerical responses and their proxies, and imaginative measures of propagule pressure.

Novel detection of provenance in the illegal wildlife trade using elemental data

Despite being the fourth largest criminal market in the world, no forensic tools have been sufficiently developed to accurately determine the legal status of seized animals and their parts. Although legal trading is permissible for farmed or captive-bred animals, many animals are illegally removed from the wild and laundered by masquerading them as captive bred. Here we present high-resolution x-ray fluorescence (XRF) as a non-invasive and cost-effective tool for forensic classification. We tested the efficacy of this technique by using machine learning on a training set of zoo specimens and wild-caught individuals of short-beaked echidnas (Tachyglossus aculeatus), a small insectivorous monotreme in Australia. XRF outperformed stable isotope analysis (δ13C, δ15N), reducing overall classification error below 4%. XRF has the added advantage of providing samples every 200 μm on a single quill, enabling 100% classification accuracy by taking the consensus of votes per quill. This accurate and cost-effective forensic technique could provide a much needed in situ solution for combating the illegal laundering of wildlife, and conversely, assist with certification of legally bred animals.

Simulations indicate that scores of lionfish (Pterois volitans) colonized the Atlantic Ocean

The invasion of the western Atlantic Ocean by the Indo-Pacific red lionfish (Pterois volitans) has had devastating consequences for marine ecosystems. Estimating the number of colonizing lionfish can be useful in identifying the introduction pathway and can inform policy decisions aimed at preventing similar invasions. It is well-established that at least ten lionfish were initially introduced. However, that estimate has not faced probabilistic scrutiny and is based solely on the number of haplotypes in the maternally-inherited mitochondrial control region. To rigorously estimate the number of lionfish that were introduced, we used a forward-time, Wright-Fisher, population genetic model in concert with a demographic, life-history model to simulate the invasion across a range of source population sizes and colonizing population fecundities. Assuming a balanced sex ratio and no Allee effects, the simulations indicate that the Atlantic population was founded by 118 (54–514, 95% HPD) lionfish from the Indo-Pacific, the Caribbean by 84 (22–328, 95% HPD) lionfish from the Atlantic, and the Gulf of Mexico by at least 114 (no upper bound on 95% HPD) lionfish from the Caribbean. Increasing the size, and therefore diversity, of the Indo-Pacific source population and fecundity of the founding population caused the number of colonists to decrease, but with rapidly diminishing returns. When the simulation was parameterized to minimize the number of colonists (high θ and relative fecundity), 96 (48–216, 95% HPD) colonists were most likely. In a more realistic scenario with Allee effects (e.g., 50% reduction in fecundity) plaguing the colonists, the most likely number of lionfish increased to 272 (106–950, 95% HPD). These results, in combination with other published data, support the hypothesis that lionfish were introduced to the Atlantic via the aquarium trade, rather than shipping. When building the model employed here, we made assumptions that minimize the number of colonists, such as the lionfish being introduced in a single event. While we conservatively modelled the introduction pathway as a single release of lionfish in one location, it is more likely that a combination of smaller and larger releases from a variety of aquarium trade stakeholders occurred near Miami, Florida, which could have led to even larger numbers of colonists than simulated here. Efforts to prevent future invasions via the aquarium trade should focus on the education of stakeholders and the prohibition of release, with adequate rewards for compliance and penalties for violations.

A review of the helminths co-introduced with Trachemys scripta elegans – a threat to European native turtle health

In the 20th century large numbers of exotic turtles Trachemys scripta elegans have been imported into Europe as pets and this has led to frequent introductions into many freshwater ecosystems. Nowadays, established populations of red-eared slider, coexist and compete with the native in Europe species of turtles in the wild. Invasive turtles are a threat to indigenous species because of carriage of many parasites, which are often considered to cause disease emergence and produce high mortality in native hosts. Helminths are the most prominent group introduced with T. s. elegans and due to their host-switching ability have become important co-invaders, a potential threat to indigenous turtle health. The aim of this review was to assess the risks of the transfer of helminths co-introduced with T. s. elegans to native species of European turtles.

Future of keeping pet reptiles and amphibians: towards integrating animal welfare, human health and environmental sustainability

The keeping of exotic pets is currently under debate and governments of several countries are increasingly exploring the regulation, or even the banning, of exotic pet keeping. Major concerns are issues of public health and safety, animal welfare and biodiversity conservation. The keeping of reptiles and amphibians in captivity encompasses all the potential issues identified with keeping exotic pets, and many of those relating to traditional domestic pets. Within the context of risks posed by pets in general, the authors argue for the responsible and sustainable keeping of reptile and amphibian pets by private persons, based on scientific evidence and on the authors' own expertise (veterinary medicine, captive husbandry, conservation biology).

Leaky doors: Private captivity as a prominent source of bird introductions in Australia

The international pet trade is a major source of emerging invasive vertebrate species. We used online resources as a novel source of information for accidental bird escapes, and we investigated the factors that influence the frequency and distribution of bird escapes at a continental scale. We collected information on over 5,000 pet birds reported to be missing on animal websites during the last 15 years in Australia. We investigated whether variables linked to pet ownership successfully predicted bird escapes, and we assessed the potential distribution of these escapes. Most of the reported birds were parrots (> 90%), thus, we analysed factors associated with the frequency of parrot escapes. We found that bird escapes in Australia are much more frequent than previously acknowledged. Bird escapes were reported more frequently within, or around, large Australian capital cities. Socio-economic factors, such as the average personal income level of the community, and the level of human modification to the environment were the best predictors of bird escapes. Cheaper parrot species, Australian natives, and parrot species regarded as peaceful or playful were the most frequently reported escapees. Accidental introductions have been overlooked as an important source of animal incursions. Information on bird escapes is available online in many higher income countries and, in Australia, this is particularly apparent for parrot species. We believe that online resources may provide useful tools for passive surveillance for non-native pet species. Online surveillance will be particularly relevant for species that are highly reported, such as parrots, and species that are either valuable or highly commensal.

Integrative Analysis of the Physical Transport Network into Australia

Effective biosecurity is necessary to protect nations and their citizens from a variety of threats, including emerging infectious diseases, agricultural or environmental pests and pathogens, and illegal wildlife trade. The physical pathways by which these threats are transported internationally, predominantly shipping and air traffic, have undergone significant growth and changes in spatial distributions in recent decades. An understanding of the specific pathways and donor-traffic hotspots created by this integrated physical transport network is vital for the development of effective biosecurity strategies into the future. In this study, we analysed the physical transport network into Australia over the period 1999-2012. Seaborne and air traffic were weighted to calculate a "weighted cumulative impact" score for each source region worldwide, each year. High risk source regions, and those source regions that underwent substantial changes in risk over the study period, were determined. An overall risk ranking was calculated by integrating across all possible weighting combinations. The source regions having greatest overall physical connectedness with Australia were Singapore, which is a global transport hub, and the North Island of New Zealand, a close regional trading partner with Australia. Both those regions with large amounts of traffic across multiple vectors (e.g., Hong Kong), and those with high levels of traffic of only one type (e.g., Bali, Indonesia with respect to passenger flights), were represented among high risk source regions. These data provide a baseline model for the transport of individuals and commodities against which the effectiveness of biosecurity controls may be assessed, and are a valuable tool in the development of future biosecurity policy.

Going cheap: determinants of bird price in the Taiwanese pet market

BACKGROUND

International wildlife trade is the largest emerging source of vertebrate invasive alien species. In order to prevent invasions, it is essential to understand the mechanics of trade and, in particular, which traded species are most likely to be released or escape into the wild. A species' economic value is a key factor, because we expect cheaper species to be less assiduously secured against escaping, and more likely to be deliberately released. Here, we investigate determinants of the price of species in the Taiwanese bird trade. Taiwan is an international hub for bird trade, and several native species are threatened by alien bird species.

METHODOLOGY

We investigated the relationship between the traded species sale price in Taiwan and the species availability for trade (the number of birds for sale, geographic range size and their origin, conservation and CITES status) and traits (body size, coloration, song attractiveness). We used phylogenetic generalized least squares models, with multi-model inference, to assess the variables that are best related to the price of birds in the Taiwanese pet trade.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS/CONCLUSIONS

We found that species available for sale in larger numbers, native to Taiwan, not globally endangered, and small-bodied are all relatively cheaper, as too are species lacking yellow coloration and without attractive songs. Our models of price revealed high levels of phylogenetic correlation, and hence that closely related species tended to be sold for similar prices. We suggest that, on the basis of price, native species are more likely to be deliberately or accidentally released than alien species. Nevertheless, our survey of bird shops recorded 160 species alien to Taiwan (7,631 individuals), several of which are for sale cheaply and in large numbers. Alien bird species in trade therefore present an ongoing, non-trivial invasion risk on the island.