Climate change overruns resilience conferred by temperature-dependent sex determination in sea turtles and threatens their survival

High thermal tolerance of egg clutches and potential adaptive capacity in green turtles

Climate warming threatens sea turtles, among other effects, because high temperatures increase embryo mortality. However, not all species and populations are expected to respond the same way because they could have different thermal tolerances and capacities to adapt. We tested the effect of incubation temperature on egg mortality in a population of green turtles (Chelonia mydas) previously suggested to be less affected by extreme climatic events than others. We (1) assessed the relationship between temperature and hatching success, (2) defined an optimal range of temperatures that maximized hatching success and (3) assessed the variability in the response to temperature among clutches laid by different mothers, which could allow adaptation. Hatching success was consistently high in green turtle clutches with a skew toward high values, with 50 % of clutches having a success above 94 %. Yet, it was mildly affected by temperature, declining at both low and high temperatures. The optimal range of mean incubation temperatures was between ~30.5 °C and 32.5 °C. Current mean temperatures (31.3 °C) fall within the middle of the optimal range, indicating a potential resilience to further rises in mean nest temperature. Hatching success was best described by nest temperature and the interaction between female identity and temperature. This last predictor indicated a variability in thermal tolerance among clutches laid by different mothers and therefore, a capacity to adapt. The studied population of green turtles seems to be less vulnerable than others to climate warming. Understanding how different populations could respond to increasing temperatures could help complete the picture on the potential effects of climate change on sea turtles.

Potential drivers and implications of a balanced breeding sex ratio in a small population of an imperiled species with environmental sex determination

Small populations of imperiled species are susceptible to the negative consequences of skewed sex-ratios. In imperiled species with environmental sex determination such as sea turtles, examining sex ratios across a range of environments and population abundance levels can provide insight into factors that influence population resilience, which can then be the foci of management plans for these species. Breeding sex ratios (the ratio of actively breeding males to females during a reproductive season; BSRs) extrapolated from genetic parentage analyses are a common approach for enumerating sex ratios in sea turtles. Such analyses also allow for the characterization of multiple paternity within sea turtle clutches, which should reflect BSRs and breeding behaviors. We characterized the first BSR for a breeding assemblage of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) belonging to the temperate, low-abundance Northern Gulf of Mexico Recovery Unit using genotypes of 16 microsatellite loci from nesting females and hatchlings. Unlike prior studies at both more-tropical and more-temperate, and higher-abundance, Recovery Units in this region, we found a balanced BSR of 1.3:1 males:female and a low incidence (~17%) of multiple paternity. This suggests that there are relatively few males breeding at this assemblage and within this Recovery Unit. Beaches in this region are expected to produce substantial numbers of male hatchlings based on sand temperature data. The relative dearth of mature males may then be due to hydrologic disturbances that disproportionately affect the fitness and survival of male hatchlings, or due to demographic stochasticity. More work is needed to study the factors that might influence male hatchling production and fitness in this region, particularly as climate change is predicted to lead to feminization in global sea turtle populations. Our work demonstrates the broad utility of characterizing BSRs and other sex ratios across a range of populations in imperiled, environmentally sensitive species.

Variability in thermal tolerance of clutches from different mothers indicates adaptation potential to climate warming in sea turtles

The current climate warming is a challenge to biodiversity that could surpass the adaptation capacity of some species. Hence, understanding the means by which populations undergo an increase in their thermal tolerance is critical to assess how they could adapt to climate warming. Specifically, sea turtle populations could respond to increasing temperatures by (1) colonizing new nesting areas, (2) nesting during cooler times of the year, and/or (3) by increasing their thermal tolerance. Differences in thermal tolerance of clutches laid by different females would indicate that populations have the potential to adapt by natural selection. Here, we used exhaustive information on nest temperatures and hatching success of leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) clutches over 14 years to assess the occurrence of individual variability in thermal tolerance among females. We found an effect of temperature, year, and the interaction between female identity and nest temperature on hatching success, indicating that clutches laid by different females exhibited different levels of vulnerability to high temperatures. If thermal tolerance is a heritable trait, individuals with higher thermal tolerances could have greater chances of passing their genes to following generations, increasing their frequency in the population. However, the high rate of failure of clutches at temperatures above 32°C suggests that leatherback turtles are already experiencing extreme heat stress. A proper understanding of mechanisms of adaptation in populations to counteract changes in climate could greatly contribute to future conservation of endangered populations in a rapidly changing world.

Short-term resilience to climate-induced temperature increases for equatorial sea turtle populations

Projection models are being increasingly used to manage threatened taxa by estimating their responses to climate change. Sea turtles are particularly susceptible to climate change as they have temperature-dependent sex determination and increased sand temperatures on nesting beaches could result in the 'feminisation' of hatchling sex ratios for some populations. This study modelled likely long-term trends in sand temperatures and hatchling sex ratios at an equatorial nesting site for endangered green turtles (Chelonia mydas) and critically endangered hawksbill turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata). A total of 1078 days of sand temperature data were collected from 28 logger deployments at nest depth between 2018 and 2022 in Papua New Guinea (PNG). Long-term trends in sand temperature were generated from a model using air temperature as an environmental proxy. The influence of rainfall and seasonal variation on sand temperature was also investigated. Between 1960 and 2019, we estimated that sand temperature increased by ~0.6°C and the average hatchling sex ratio was relatively balanced (46.2% female, SD = 10.7). No trends were observed in historical rainfall anomalies and projections indicated no further changes to rainfall until 2100. Therefore, the sex ratio models were unlikely to be influenced by changing rainfall patterns. A relatively balanced sex ratio such as this is starkly different to the extremely female-skewed hatchling sex ratio (>99% female) reported for another Coral Sea nesting site, Raine Island (~850 km West). This PNG nesting site is likely rare in the global context, as it is less threatened by climate-induced feminisation. Although there is no current need for 'cooling' interventions, the mean projected sex ratios for 2020-2100 were estimated 76%-87% female, so future interventions may be required to increase male production. Our use of long-term sand temperature and rainfall trends has advanced our understanding of climate change impacts on sea turtles.

Molecular biological, physiological, cytological, and epigenetic mechanisms of environmental sex differentiation in teleosts: A systematic review

Human activities have been exerting widespread stress and environmental risks in aquatic ecosystems. Environmental stress, including temperature rise, acidification, hypoxia, light pollution, and crowding, had a considerable negative impact on the life histology of aquatic animals, especially on sex differentiation (SDi) and the resulting sex ratios. Understanding how the sex of fish responds to stressful environments is of great importance for understanding the origin and maintenance of sex, the dynamics of the natural population in the changing world, and the precise application of sex control in aquaculture. This review conducted an exhaustive search of the available literature on the influence of environmental stress (ES) on SDi. Evidence has shown that all types of ES can affect SDi and universally result in an increase in males or masculinization, which has been reported in 100 fish species and 121 cases. Then, this comprehensive review aimed to summarize the molecular biology, physiology, cytology, and epigenetic mechanisms through which ES contributes to male development or masculinization. The relationship between ES and fish SDi from multiple aspects was analyzed, and it was found that environmental sex differentiation (ESDi) is the result of the combined effects of genetic and epigenetic factors, self-physiological regulation, and response to environmental signals, which involves a sophisticated network of various hormones and numerous genes at multiple levels and multiple gradations in bipotential gonads. In both normal male differentiation and ES-induced masculinization, the stress pathway and epigenetic regulation play important roles; however, how they co-regulate SDi is unclear. Evidence suggests that the universal emergence or increase in males in aquatic animals is an adaptation to moderate ES. ES-induced sex reversal should be fully investigated in more fish species and extensively in the wild. The potential aquaculture applications and difficulties associated with ESDi have also been addressed. Finally, the knowledge gaps in the ESDi are presented, which will guide the priorities of future research.

Is the future female for turtles? Climate change and wetland configuration predict sex ratios of a freshwater species

Climate change and land-use change are leading drivers of biodiversity decline, affecting demographic parameters that are important for population persistence. For example, scientists have speculated for decades that climate change may skew adult sex ratios in taxa that express temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), but limited evidence exists that this phenomenon is occurring in natural settings. For species that are vulnerable to anthropogenic land-use practices, differential mortality among sexes may also skew sex ratios. We sampled the spotted turtle (Clemmys guttata), a freshwater species with TSD, across a large portion of its geographic range (Florida to Maine), to assess the environmental factors influencing adult sex ratios. We present evidence that suggests recent climate change has potentially skewed the adult sex ratio of spotted turtles, with samples following a pattern of increased proportions of females concomitant with warming trends, but only within the warmer areas sampled. At intermediate temperatures, there was no relationship with climate, while in the cooler areas we found the opposite pattern, with samples becoming more male biased with increasing temperatures. These patterns might be explained in part by variation in relative adaptive capacity via phenotypic plasticity in nest site selection. Our findings also suggest that spotted turtles have a context-dependent and multi-scale relationship with land use. We observed a negative relationship between male proportion and the amount of crop cover (within 300 m) when wetlands were less spatially aggregated. However, when wetlands were aggregated, sex ratios remained consistent. This pattern may reflect sex-specific patterns in movement that render males more vulnerable to mortality from agricultural machinery and other threats. Our findings highlight the complexity of species' responses to both climate change and land use, and emphasize the role that landscape structure can play in shaping wildlife population demographics.

Temperature along an elevation gradient determines Galapagos tortoise sex ratios

Climate change threatens endemic island ectothermic reptiles that display small population sizes and temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD). Studies of captive Galapagos tortoises demonstrate type A TSD with warmer incubation temperatures producing females. However, there are few published data from free-living Galapagos tortoises on incubation temperature regimes, and none on hatchling sex ratios in the wild or the potential impacts of climate change on future sex ratios. We sought to address these deficits by quantifying incubation temperatures of nests and sex ratios of juvenile tortoises along an elevation gradient on Santa Cruz Island. We focused on three geographically separated nesting zones with mean elevations of 14 m (lower), 57 m (middle), and 107 m (upper) above sea level. Nest temperatures in 54 nests distributed across the three nesting zones were measured every 4 h throughout the incubation period using iButton thermochrons. We used coelioscopy to conduct visual exams of gonads to determine the sex of 40 juvenile tortoises from the three nesting zones. During the middle trimester of incubation, the period during which sex is determined in turtles, mean nest temperatures were 25.75°C (SD = 1.08) in the upper zone, and 27.02°C (SD = 1.09), and 27.09°C (SD = 0.85) in the middle and lower zones, respectively. The proportion of juveniles that was male increased from 11.1% in the lower zone and 9.5% in the middle zone, to 80% in the upper zone. A ca. 50 m increase in elevation induced a decrease of >1.25°C in mean nest temperature during the second trimester of incubation. Over the same elevation change, the proportion of males in the juvenile tortoise population increased by ca. 70%. Temperatures on Galapagos are predicted to increase by 1-4°C over the next 50 years, which is likely to increase the frequency of female tortoises across the archipelago.

Mitigating the effects of climate change on the nests of sea turtles with artificial irrigation

For sea turtles, like many oviparous species, increasing temperatures during development threaten to increase embryonic mortality, alter offspring quality, and potentially create suboptimal primary sex ratios. Various methods are being implemented to mitigate the effects of climate change on reproductive success, but these methods, such as breeding programs, translocations, and shading, are often invasive and expensive. Irrigation is an alternative strategy for cooling nests that, depending on location, can be implemented relatively quickly and cheaply. However, multiple factors, including ambient conditions, nest substrate, and species characteristics, can influence irrigation success. Additionally, irrigation can vary in duration, frequency, and the volume of water applied to nests, which influences the cooling achieved and embryonic survival. Thus, it is critical to understand how to maximize cooling and manage risks before implementing irrigation as a nest-cooling strategy. We reviewed the literature on nest irrigation to examine whether artificial irrigation is feasible as a population management tool. Key factors that affected cooling were the volume of water applied and the frequency of applications. Embryonic responses varied with species, ambient conditions, and the timing of irrigation during development. Nest inundation was the key risk to a successful irrigation regime. Future irrigation regimes must identify clear targets, either primary or adult sex ratios, that maximize population viability. Monitoring population responses and adjusting the irrigation regime in response to population characteristics will be critical. Most studies reported on the manipulation of only one or two variables, further research is required to understand how altering multiple factors in an irrigation regime influences the cooling achieved and embryonic responses.

A morphologist, a modeler, and an endocrinologist consider sea turtle sex ratios in a changing climate. Some wine was involved

Because the sex of sea turtles is determined by temperature during embryonic development, many populations are vulnerable to increased bias in primary sex ratios as global temperatures rise. Higher temperatures produce more females, and some populations are already showing years with all-female offspring production. But because sea turtles take decades to mature and have long adult lifespans, these primary sex ratio biases can take years to impact adult sex ratios, and the males from cohorts that are produced during cooler years may compensate for the sex ratio bias if they can breed more frequently and with multiple females. To date, little is known about male sea turtle reproductive behavior, making predictions of sex ratio skew impacts highly speculative. We used data from southern Florida loggerhead sea turtle nests to parameterize a simple population model to explore the effects of an increase in the proportion of female hatchlings over time on population trends, effective population size (Ne), and quasi-extinction probability. We also tested the effects of increasing the frequency of relatively high male production years to simulate potential mitigation strategies. While heuristic rather than predictive, our results expectedly show a rise in nest counts due to the increase in females over time, followed by population decline as males become limiting. Population collapse due to increased female bias will take many decades to occur, but sex ratio skew can have large impacts on Ne, and thus increase the potential for inbreeding. An increase in the frequency of male production years, even just one additional “good male year” per decade, can help mitigate these outcomes if the rate of feminization is not too rapid. Male breeding frequency and mating success are critical drivers of the results and must be prioritized for research.

The ecological importance of the accuracy of environmental temperature measurements

The implications of logger accuracy and precision are rarely considered prior to their application in many ecological studies. We assessed the accuracy and precision of three temperature data loggers widely used in ecological studies (Hobo®, iButton® and TinyTag®). Accuracy was highest in TinyTags (95% of readings were within 0.23°C of the true temperature) and lowest in HOBOs and iButtons (95% of were readings within 0.43°C and 0.49°C of the true temperature, respectively). The precision (standard deviation of the repeat measurements) was greatest in TinyTags (0.04°C), followed by iButtons (0.17°C) and then HOBOs (0.22°C). As a case study, we then considered how modelled estimates of sea turtle hatchling sex ratios (derived from temperature), could vary as a function of logger accuracy. For example, at 29°C when the mean sex ratio derived was 0.47 female, the sex ratio estimate from a single logger could vary between 0.40 and 0.50 for TinyTags and 0.29 and 0.56 for both HOBOs and iButtons. Our results suggest that these temperature loggers can provide reliable descriptions of sand temperature if they are not over-interpreted. Logger accuracy must be considered in future ecological studies in which temperature thresholds are important.

High-temperature stress will put the thermo-sensitive teleost yellow catfish (Tachysurus fulvidraco) in danger through reducing reproductivity

Recently, concerns for species that sex differentiation is influenced by temperature in the context of global warming have increased because disrupted operational sex ratios could threaten population maintenance. In contrast, little attention has been given to the reproductive ability of populations that experienced elevated temperatures. In this study, we demonstrated that high temperature (HT) would decrease population size via three different aspects of reproductive ability for the first time. We show that, in a thermo-sensitive teleost yellow catfish, a short period of HT (+3 °C) exposure during the critical period of sex differentiation leads to a different percentage of masculinization of XX genotypic females (1-23%) in wet-lab and natural water bodies. Combining the results of gonadal appearance, histology, sperm parameters, and fertilization rate, we found that XX pseudo-males induced by HT display significantly discounted fertility and reproductive performance compared to XY normal males. We demonstrate that the survival of the XY genotype is lower than XX genotype under environmental stress, including HT, hypoxia, and parasite infection, and the differential survival seems unrelated to male-biased sexual size dimorphism. The mathematical model predicts that the phenotypic female percent will be stabilized at 50% and the population will be sustainably maintained when masculinizing force is less than 0.5, while HT will put the population in danger when the masculinizing force exceeds 0.5. However, when we combine the real-world data of reproductive ability and mathematic model, our results suggest the population size decreases and the long-term survival of the studied species are threatened under the projected pace of increasing temperature. These findings will be useful for understanding the long-term effects of increasing temperature on sex ratio, reproduction and population maintenance in teleost.

Unveiling the egg microbiota of the loggerhead sea turtle Caretta caretta in nesting beaches of the Mediterranean Sea

Microbes have central roles in the development and health of animals, being the introduction of specific microbial species a potential conservation strategy to protect animals from emerging diseases. Thus, insight into the microbiota of the species and their habitats is essential. In this manuscript, we report for the first time the bacterial composition of all the components (eggshells of hatched and unhatched eggs, internal content of unhatched eggs, intestinal content of hatchling and pipping sea turtles, and sand) of three nesting beaches of Caretta caretta along the Italian coasts of the Mediterranean Sea. The analysis of 26 amplicon samples was carried out using next-generation sequencing analysis, targeting V3–V4 regions of the bacterial 16S rRNA gene. Samples featured mainly Proteobacteria, Actinobacteria, Firmicutes, and Bacteroidetes, whose percentages depended on the sample type. Our results showed that, although from different sampling sites, the internal content of the unhatched eggs, intestinal content of hatchling and pipping sea turtles share the microbiota, which was yet different from that of eggshells and sand of the same nesting beach. This study suggests the maternal and environmental influence alongside a protective role of eggshells in shaping the egg microbiota of Caretta caretta sea turtles.

Sex-differences in Phenology: A Tinbergian Perspective

Shifts in the timing of cyclic seasonal life-history events are among the most commonly reported responses to climate change, with differences in response rates among interacting species leading to phenological mismatches. Within a species, however, males and females can also exhibit differential sensitivity to environmental cues and may therefore differ in their responsiveness to climate change, potentially leading to phenological mismatches between the sexes. This occurs because males differ from females in when and how energy is allocated to reproduction, resulting in marked sex-differences in life-history timing across the annual cycle. In this review, we take a Tinbergian perspective and examine sex differences in timing of vertebrates from adaptive, ontogenetic, mechanistic, and phylogenetic viewpoints with the goal of informing and motivating more integrative research on sexually dimorphic phenologies. We argue that sexual and natural selection lead to sex-differences in life-history-timing and that understanding the ecological and evolutionary drivers of these differences is critical for connecting climate-driven phenological shifts to population resilience. Ontogeny may influence how and when sex differences in life-history timing arise because the early-life environment can profoundly affect developmental trajectory, rates of reproductive maturation, and seasonal timing. The molecular mechanisms underlying these organismal traits are relevant to identifying the diversity and genetic basis of population- and species-level responses to climate change, and promisingly, the molecular basis of phenology is becoming increasingly well-understood. However, because most studies focus on a single sex, the causes of sex-differences in phenology critical to population resilience often remain unclear. New sequencing tools and analyses informed by phylogeny may help generate hypotheses about mechanism as well as insight into the general "evolvability" of sex differences across phylogenetic scales, especially as trait and genome resources grow. We recommend that greater attention be placed on determining sex-differences in timing mechanisms and monitoring climate change responses in both sexes, and we discuss how new tools may provide key insights into sex-differences in phenology from all four Tinbergian domains.

Effects of moisture during incubation on green sea turtle (Chelonia mydas) development, morphology and performance

While the effect of temperature on embryonic development in sea turtles has been well studied over recent years, our understanding of the effect of substrate moisture, another important environmental variable, is limited. High sand moisture decreases nest temperature through evaporative and direct cooling during rainfall, but its direct effect on hatchling development, morphology and performance is unclear. To address this knowledge gap, we incubated 40 green sea turtle Chelonia mydas clutches in a beach hatchery under either high (~8% v/v) or low (~5% v/v) sand moisture concentrations for the duration of embryonic development. In half of the clutches, temperature sensors were deployed to measure any effect of sand moisture on nest temperature. As hatchlings emerged, we measured body size and locomotory performance during the first 24 h, an important period of frenzied activity for sea turtles. We excavated clutches post-emergence to determine hatching success, emergence success and to determine the stage of embryonic death for unsuccessful eggs. High moisture concentrations increased incubation duration, decreased nest temperature and had marginal effects on hatchling morphology, but no effect on hatching success, stage of embryonic death, crawling speed or initial swimming performance. However, after 24 h of swimming, hatchlings from high-moisture clutches produced less mean swim thrust and spent less time powerstroking than hatchlings from low-moisture clutches, suggesting reduced swimming endurance and potentially impacting the ability of hatchlings to successfully disperse. The effect of moisture on nest temperature and hatchling endurance highlights the importance of considering rainfall patterns when predicting future impacts of climate change on sea turtle populations.

Warm-night temperature alters paternal allocation strategy in a North temperate-zone butterfly

Warming temperatures are greatly impacting wild organisms across the globe. Some of the negative impacts of climate change can be mitigated behaviorally, for example, by changes in habitat and oviposition site choice. Temperatures are reportedly warming faster at night than during the day, yet studies assessing the impacts of increasing night temperature are rare. We used the Finnish Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) as study species and exposed adult butterflies of both sexes to warmer night conditions. Under a seminatural outdoor enclosure, we assessed whether females base their oviposition choices primarily on habitat site characteristics (open, suggestive of dry meadows, versus covered by a coarse canopy, suggestive of pastures) or on plant condition (dry vs. lush), and if their choice is altered by the thermal conditions experienced at night. As exposure to warmer environmental conditions is expected to increase resting metabolic rate and potentially reduce life expectancy, we further assessed the fitness implications of warm-night temperatures. We found that females prefer open sites for oviposition and that females do not switch their oviposition strategy based on the thermal conditions they experienced at night prior to the reproductive event. Exposure to warm nights did not influence female lifespan, but the egg hatching success of their offspring was reduced. In addition, we found that males exposed to warm nights sired larger clutches with higher hatching rate. As warm-night exposure reduced male lifespan, this may imply a switch in male resource allocation strategy toward increased offspring quality. The present work adds on to the complex implications of climate warming and highlights the importance of the often-neglected role of males in shaping offspring performance.

Comparison of UAV and Boat Surveys for Detecting Changes in Breeding Population Dynamics of Sea Turtles

Surveying the breeding population of a given species can be difficult for many logistic reasons. Marine turtles are a challenging taxon for the study of reproductive ecology and breeding strategies, because turtles aggregate off-shore and males remain exclusively at sea. For successful management of sea turtle populations, determining operational sex ratios (OSRs) on a continuing basis is critical for determining long-term population viability, particularly in the context of changing hatchling sex ratios due to temperature-dependent sex determination in a warming climate. To understand how survey technique and stage of the breeding season might influence the ability to detect turtles and determine OSRs, we surveyed the presence and identified the sex of adult male and female green sea turtles (Chelonia mydas) using a boat and small commercial unoccupied/unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), at the start (October) and peak (December) of a nesting season at an important breeding site at Heron Island, Great Barrier Reef, Australia. The ratio of males to females within the breeding ground detected by both survey methods changed from being male-biased in October to heavily female-biased in December, indicating that most males cease their reproductive effort and depart before the peak of the nesting season. Surveying with a UAV more than doubled the rate of turtles seen per minute of survey effort compared with surveying solely from the boat and allowed surveys to be conducted at times and/or places unsafe or inaccessible for boats. The sex of a slightly greater proportion of turtles seen could not be identified by observers using a UAV versus a boat, although more turtles were detected using the UAV. The departure of many males during the peak of the nesting season is likely due to an increasing biological cost of residency in the area because males encounter fewer receptive females as the season progresses and the limited foraging opportunity is insufficient to support the number of males present. Overall, we found that UAVs are an effective tool for studying important but difficult to observe aspects of sea turtle biology.

Climate change and marine turtles: recent advances and future directions

Climate change is a threat to marine turtles that is expected to affect all of their life stages. To guide future research, we conducted a review of the most recent literature on this topic, highlighting knowledge gains and research gaps since a similar previous review in 2009. Most research has been focussed on the terrestrial life history phase, where expected impacts will range from habitat loss and decreased reproductive success to feminization of populations, but changes in reproductive periodicity, shifts in latitudinal ranges, and changes in foraging success are all expected in the marine life history phase. Models have been proposed to improve estimates of primary sex ratios, while technological advances promise a better understanding of how climate can influence different life stages and habitats. We suggest a number of research priorities for an improved understanding of how climate change may impact marine turtles, including: improved estimates of primary sex ratios, assessments of the implications of female-biased sex ratios and reduced male production, assessments of the variability in upper thermal limits of clutches, models of beach sediment movement under sea level rise, and assessments of impacts on foraging grounds. Lastly, we suggest that it is not yet possible to recommend manipulating aspects of turtle nesting ecology, as the evidence base with which to understand the results of such interventions is not robust enough, but that strategies for mitigation of stressors should be helpful, providing they consider the synergistic effects of climate change and other anthropogenic-induced threats to marine turtles, and focus on increasing resilience.

Role of incubation environment in determining thermal tolerance of sea turtle hatchlings

Warming global temperatures are predicted to reduce population viability in many oviparous ectothermic taxa, with increased embryonic mortality likely to be a main cause. While research on embryonic upper thermal limits is extensive, sea turtle hatchling thermal tolerance has received less attention and our understanding of how incubation conditions influence hatchling thermal tolerance is limited. Here, we report green turtle Chelonia mydas hatchling hydration and thermal tolerance following incubation in dry and wet conditions. We used packed cell volume and total protein as indicators of hydration and measured the critical thermal maximum (CTmax) of hatchlings in air. Neither hydration nor thermal tolerance was directly influenced by moisture treatment. However, hatchlings from moister nests had longer incubation durations (wet: 60.11 d vs. dry: 54.86 d), and, using incubation duration as a proxy for incubation temperature, hatchlings from cooler nests had significantly lower CTmax (wet: 39.84°C vs. dry: 40.51°C). Thus, despite not directly influencing thermal tolerance, moisture treatment influenced nest temperature indirectly; hatchlings that experienced warmer conditions in dry nests had a higher thermal tolerance than hatchlings from cooler and wetter nests. Ectothermic neonates may have greater plasticity in their thermal tolerance than previously thought, but their ability to adapt to increasing temperature is likely limited. Additionally, common management techniques to reduce nest temperatures, such as watering and shading nests, may only reduce embryonic mortality at the cost of decreased hatchling thermal tolerance and increased hatchling mortality during emergence. Nesting-site management interventions designed to reduce embryonic mortality will need to consider mitigation of the possible effects of those interventions on hatchling mortality.

Population Viability of Sea Turtles in the Context of Global Warming

Sea turtles present a model for the potential impacts of climate change on imperiled species, with projected warming generating concern about their persistence. Various sea turtle life-history traits are affected by temperature; most strikingly, warmer egg incubation temperatures cause female-biased sex ratios and higher embryo mortality. Predictions of sea turtle resilience to climate change are often focused on how resulting male limitation or reduced offspring production may affect populations. In the present article, by reviewing research on sea turtles, we provide an overview of how temperature impacts on incubating eggs may cascade through life history to ultimately affect population viability. We explore how sex-specific patterns in survival and breeding periodicity determine the differences among offspring, adult, and operational sex ratios. We then discuss the implications of skewed sex ratios for male-limited reproduction, consider the negative correlation between sex ratio skew and genetic diversity, and examine consequences for adaptive potential. Our synthesis underscores the importance of considering the effects of climate throughout the life history of any species. Lethal effects (e.g., embryo mortality) are relatively direct impacts, but sublethal effects at immature life-history stages may not alter population growth rates until cohorts reach reproductive maturity. This leaves a lag during which some species transition through several stages subject to distinct biological circumstances and climate impacts. These perspectives will help managers conceptualize the drivers of emergent population dynamics and identify existing knowledge gaps under different scenarios of predicted environmental change.

Evolutionary developmental biology and sustainability: A biology of resilience

Evolutionary developmental biology, and especially ecological developmental biology, is essential for discussions of sustainability and the responses to global climate change. First, this paper explores examples of animals that have successfully altered their development to accommodate human-made changes to their environments. We next document the ability of global warming to disrupt the development of those organisms with temperature-dependent sex-determination or with phenologies coordinating that organism's development with those of other species. The thermotolerance of Homo sapiens is also related to key developmental factors concerning brain development and maintenance, and the development of corals, the keystone organisms of tropical reefs, is discussed in relation to global warming as well as to other anthropogenic changes. While teratogenic and endocrine-disrupting compounds are not discussed in this essay, the ability of glyphosate herbicides to block insect development is highlighted. Last, the paper discusses the need to creatively integrate developmental biology with ecological, political, religious, and economic perspectives, as the flourishing of contemporary species may require altering the ways that Western science has considered the categories of nature, culture, and self.

Long-term monitoring of marine turtle nests in northeastern Brazil

Abstract: This study monitored marine turtle nests in a region known as the Potiguar Basin, which stretches from the northern region of Rio Grande do Norte State (5°4’1.15” S, 36°4’36.41” W) to eastern Ceará State (4°38’48.28” S, 37°32’52.08” W) in Brazil. We collected data from January 2011 to December 2019 to identify species of sea turtles that spawn in the basin, to analyze the nesting spatial-temporal pattern and nests characteristics, and to record effects of environmental and anthropic factors on nests. A field team examined sea turtle tracks and nests signs. Turtle clutches were monitored daily until hatchings emerged from the nests. We monitored nests of hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata; n = 238) and olive Ridley turtles (Lepidochelys olivacea; n = 103). The nesting season for E. imbricata occurred between December and May and for L. olivacea from March to August. Hawksbills had clutch size, incubation time, number of unhatched eggs, and dead hatchlings higher than olive Ridley turtles; nevertheless, they presented lower hatching success. Precipitation between 0 and 22 mm and relative humidity (RH) higher than 69% increased the hatching success rate for E. imbricata; however, rainfall above 11 mm and RH 64% had the same effect for L. olivacea. Signs of egg theft and human presence (e.g. vehicle traffic and plastic residues on the beach) were recorded and are considered threats to nests. The results of our long-term monitoring study in the Potiguar Basin provide basis for the implementation of mitigation measures and adoption of management policies at nesting beaches in this Brazilian region.

Extreme rainfall events and cooling of sea turtle clutches: Implications in the face of climate warming

Understanding how climate change impacts species and ecosystems is integral to conservation. When studying impacts of climate change, warming temperatures are a research focus, with much less attention given to extreme weather events and their impacts. Here, we show how localized, extreme rainfall events can have a major impact on a species that is endangered in many parts of its range. We report incubation temperatures from the world's largest green sea turtle rookery, during a breeding season when two extreme rainfall events occurred. Rainfall caused nest temperatures to drop suddenly and the maximum drop in temperature for each rain-induced cooling averaged 3.6°C (n = 79 nests, min = 1.0°C, max = 7.4°C). Since green sea turtles have temperature-dependent sex determination, with low incubation temperatures producing males, such major rainfall events may have a masculinization effect on primary sex ratios. Therefore, in some cases, extreme rainfall events may provide a "get-out-of-jail-free card" to avoid complete feminization of turtle populations as climate warming continues.

Draft Genome of the Common Snapping Turtle, Chelydra serpentina, a Model for Phenotypic Plasticity in Reptiles

Turtles are iconic reptiles that inhabit a range of ecosystems from oceans to deserts and climates from the tropics to northern temperate regions. Yet, we have little understanding of the genetic adaptations that allow turtles to survive and reproduce in such diverse environments. Common snapping turtles, Chelydra serpentina, are an ideal model species for studying adaptation to climate because they are widely distributed from tropical to northern temperate zones in North America. They are also easy to maintain and breed in captivity and produce large clutch sizes, which makes them amenable to quantitative genetic and molecular genetic studies of traits like temperature-dependent sex determination. We therefore established a captive breeding colony and sequenced DNA from one female using both short and long reads. After trimming and filtering, we had 209.51Gb of Illumina reads, 25.72Gb of PacBio reads, and 21.72 Gb of Nanopore reads. The assembled genome was 2.258 Gb in size and had 13,224 scaffolds with an N50 of 5.59Mb. The longest scaffold was 27.24Mb. BUSCO analysis revealed 97.4% of core vertebrate genes in the genome. We identified 3.27 million SNPs in the reference turtle, which indicates a relatively high level of individual heterozygosity. We assembled the transcriptome using RNA-Seq data and used gene prediction software to produce 22,812 models of protein coding genes. The quality and contiguity of the snapping turtle genome is similar to or better than most published reptile genomes. The genome and genetic variants identified here provide a foundation for future studies of adaptation to climate.

Low temperature has opposite effects on sex determination in a marine fish at the larval/postlarval and juvenile stages

Temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) can be observed in multiple reptile and fish species. It is adaptive when varying environmental conditions advantage either males or females. A good knowledge of the thermosensitive period is key to understand how environmental changes may lead to changes in population sex ratio. Here, by manipulating temperature during development, we confirm that cold temperature (16°C) increases the proportion of fish that develop as females in European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax) until 56 days posthatching, but show that it has an opposite effect at later stages, with the proportion of males reaching ~90% after 230 days at 16°C. This is the first observation of opposite effects of temperature at different time periods on the sex ratio of a vertebrate. Our results highlight the potential complexity of environmental effects on sex determination.

Disease risk analysis in sea turtles: A baseline study to inform conservation efforts

The impact of a range of different threats has resulted in the listing of six out of seven sea turtle species on the IUCN Red List of endangered species. Disease risk analysis (DRA) tools are designed to provide objective, repeatable and documented assessment of the disease risks for a population and measures to reduce these risks through management options. To the best of our knowledge, DRAs have not previously been published for sea turtles, although disease is reported to contribute to sea turtle population decline. Here, a comprehensive list of health hazards is provided for all seven species of sea turtles. The possible risk these hazards pose to the health of sea turtles were assessed and "One Health" aspects of interacting with sea turtles were also investigated. The risk assessment was undertaken in collaboration with more than 30 experts in the field including veterinarians, microbiologists, social scientists, epidemiologists and stakeholders, in the form of two international workshops and one local workshop. The general finding of the DRA was the distinct lack of knowledge regarding a link between the presence of pathogens and diseases manifestation in sea turtles. A higher rate of disease in immunocompromised individuals was repeatedly reported and a possible link between immunosuppression and environmental contaminants as a result of anthropogenic influences was suggested. Society based conservation initiatives and as a result the cultural and social aspect of interacting with sea turtles appeared to need more attention and research. A risk management workshop was carried out to acquire the insights of local policy makers about management options for the risks relevant to Queensland and the options were evaluated considering their feasibility and effectiveness. The sea turtle DRA presented here, is a structured guide for future risk assessments to be used in specific scenarios such as translocation and head-starting programs.

Temperature-Dependent Sex Determination in Sea Turtles in the Context of Climate Change: Uncovering the Adaptive Significance

The adaptive significance of temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) in reptiles remains unknown decades after TSD was first identified in this group. Concurrently, there is growing concern about the effect that rising temperatures may have on species with TSD, potentially producing extremely biased sex ratios or offspring of only one sex. The current state-of the-art in TSD research on sea turtles is reviewed here and, against current paradigm, it is proposed that TSD provides an advantage under warming climates. By means of coadaptation between early survival and sex ratios, sea turtles are able to maintain populations. When offspring survival declines at high temperatures, the sex that increases future fecundity (females) is produced, increasing resilience to climate warming. TSD could have helped reptiles to survive mass extinctions in the past via this model. Flaws in research on sex determination in sea turtles are also identified and it is suggested that the development of new techniques will revolutionize the field.

First evidence for a latitudinal body mass effect in extant Crocodylia and the relationships of their reproductive characters

Relationships between distribution patterns and body size have been documented in many endothermic taxa. However, the evidence for these trends in ectotherms generally is equivocal, and there have been no studies of effects in crocodylians specifically. Here, we examine the relationship between latitudinal distribution and body mass in 20 extant species of crocodylians, as well as the relationships between seven important reproductive variables. Using phylogenetically independent contrasts to inform generalized linear models, we provide the first evidence of a latitudinal effect on adult female body mass in crocodylians. In addition, we explore the relationships between reproductive variables including egg mass, hatchling mass and clutch size. We report no correlation between egg mass and clutch size, upholding previously reported within-species trends. We also find no evidence of a correlation between measures of latitudinal range and incubation temperature, contrasting with the trends found in turtles.

Enhanced, coordinated conservation efforts required to avoid extinction of critically endangered Eastern Pacific leatherback turtles

Failure to improve the conservation status of endangered species is often related to inadequate allocation of conservation resources to highest priority issues. Eastern Pacific (EP) leatherbacks are perhaps the most endangered sea turtle population in the world, and continue on a path to regional extinction. To provide coherent, regional conservation targets, we developed a population viability analysis and examined hypothetical scenarios describing effects of conservation activities that either reduced mortality or increased production of hatchlings (or both). Under status quo conditions, EP leatherbacks will be extirpated in <60 yr. To ensure a positive, long-term population trajectory, conservation efforts must increase adult survivorship (i.e., reduce adult mortality) by ≥20%, largely through reduction of fisheries bycatch mortality. Positive trajectories can be accelerated by increased production of hatchlings through enhanced nest protection and treatment. We estimate that these efforts must save approximately 200-260 adult and subadult leatherbacks and produce approximately 7,000-8,000 more hatchlings annually. Critically, reductions in late-stage mortality must begin within 5 years and reach 20% overall within the next 10-15 years to ensure population stabilization and eventual increase. These outcomes require expanded, sustained, coordinated, high-priority efforts among several entities working at multiple scales. Fortunately, such efforts are underway.

Climate change resilience of a globally important sea turtle nesting population

Few studies have looked into climate change resilience of populations of wild animals. We use a model higher vertebrate, the green sea turtle, as its life history is fundamentally affected by climatic conditions, including temperature-dependent sex determination and obligate use of beaches subject to sea level rise (SLR). We use empirical data from a globally important population in West Africa to assess resistance to climate change within a quantitative framework. We project 200 years of primary sex ratios (1900-2100) and create a digital elevation model of the nesting beach to estimate impacts of projected SLR. Primary sex ratio is currently almost balanced, with 52% of hatchlings produced being female. Under IPCC models, we predict: (a) an increase in the proportion of females by 2100 to 76%-93%, but cooler temperatures, both at the end of the nesting season and in shaded areas, will guarantee male hatchling production; (b) IPCC SLR scenarios will lead to 33.4%-43.0% loss of the current nesting area; (c) climate change will contribute to population growth through population feminization, with 32%-64% more nesting females expected by 2120; (d) as incubation temperatures approach lethal levels, however, the population will cease growing and start to decline. Taken together with other factors (degree of foraging plasticity, rookery size and trajectory, and prevailing threats), this nesting population should resist climate change until 2100, and the availability of spatial and temporal microrefugia indicates potential for resilience to predicted impacts, through the evolution of nest site selection or changes in nesting phenology. This represents the most comprehensive assessment to date of climate change resilience of a marine reptile using the most up-to-date IPCC models, appraising the impacts of temperature and SLR, integrated with additional ecological and demographic parameters. We suggest this as a framework for other populations, species and taxa.

Population viability at extreme sex-ratio skews produced by temperature-dependent sex determination

For species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) there is the fear that rising temperatures may lead to single-sex populations and population extinction. We show that for sea turtles, a major group exhibiting TSD, these concerns are currently unfounded but may become important under extreme climate warming scenarios. We show how highly female-biased sex ratios in developing eggs translate into much more balanced operational sex ratios so that adult male numbers in populations around the world are unlikely to be limiting. Rather than reducing population viability, female-biased offspring sex ratios may, to some extent, help population growth by increasing the number of breeding females and hence egg production. For rookeries across the world (n = 75 sites for seven species), we show that extreme female-biased hatchling sex ratios do not compromise population size and are the norm, with a tendency for populations to maximize the number of female hatchlings. Only at extremely high incubation temperature does high mortality within developing clutches threaten sea turtles. Our work shows how TSD itself is a robust strategy up to a point, but eventually high mortality and female-only hatchling production will cause extinction if incubation conditions warm considerably in the future.

Combined effects of increased temperature and endocrine disrupting pollutants on sex determination, survival, and development across generations

Understanding the combined effects of anthropogenic impacts such as climate change and pollution on aquatic ecosystems is critical. However, little is known about how predicted temperature increases may affect the activity of endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs), particularly in species with plasticity in sex determination. We investigated the effects of a concomitant increase in temperature and exposure to estrogenic EDCs on reproduction and development in an estuarine model organism (Menidia beryllina) across multiple generations. Parents (P) were exposed to environmental levels of the estrogenic insecticide bifenthrin or ethinylestradiol (EE2) at 22 °C and 28 °C for 14 days prior to the initiation of spawning trials. Embryos in the F1 generation were exposed to EDCs until 21 days post hatch (dph), reared to adulthood in clean water at elevated temperatures, and spawned. F1 sex ratios were significantly influenced by elevated temperature and EDCs, potentially altering adaptive development. We also observed fewer viable offspring and increased developmental deformities in the F1 and F2 generations, with a greater impact on F2 juveniles. These findings enhance our understanding of responses to EDCs in the context of climate change and may demonstrate heritable effects. Our study represents the first multigenerational assessment of elevated temperatures in combination with environmentally relevant concentrations of commonly detected endocrine disruptors in a model vertebrate species.

Combined effects of increased temperature and endocrine disrupting pollutants on sex determination, survival, and development across generations

Understanding the combined effects of anthropogenic impacts such as climate change and pollution on aquatic ecosystems is critical. However, little is known about how predicted temperature increases may affect the activity of endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs), particularly in species with plasticity in sex determination. We investigated the effects of a concomitant increase in temperature and exposure to estrogenic EDCs on reproduction and development in an estuarine model organism (Menidia beryllina) across multiple generations. Parents (P) were exposed to environmental levels of the estrogenic insecticide bifenthrin or ethinylestradiol (EE2) at 22 °C and 28 °C for 14 days prior to the initiation of spawning trials. Embryos in the F1 generation were exposed to EDCs until 21 days post hatch (dph), reared to adulthood in clean water at elevated temperatures, and spawned. F1 sex ratios were significantly influenced by elevated temperature and EDCs, potentially altering adaptive development. We also observed fewer viable offspring and increased developmental deformities in the F1 and F2 generations, with a greater impact on F2 juveniles. These findings enhance our understanding of responses to EDCs in the context of climate change and may demonstrate heritable effects. Our study represents the first multigenerational assessment of elevated temperatures in combination with environmentally relevant concentrations of commonly detected endocrine disruptors in a model vertebrate species.

Are thermal barriers "higher" in deep sea turtle nests?

Thermal tolerances are affected by the range of temperatures that species encounter in their habitat. Daniel Janzen hypothesized in his “Why mountain passes are higher in the tropics” that temperature gradients were effective barriers to animal movements where climatic uniformity was high. Sea turtles bury their eggs providing some thermal stability that varies with depth. We assessed the relationship between thermal uniformity and thermal tolerance in nests of three species of sea turtles. We considered that barriers were “high” when small thermal changes had comparatively large effects and “low” when the effects were small. Mean temperature was lower and fluctuated less in species that dig deeper nests. Thermal barriers were comparatively “higher” in leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) nests, which were the deepest, as embryo mortality increased at lower “high” temperatures than in olive ridley (Lepidochelys olivacea) and green turtle (Chelonia mydas) nests. Sea turtles have temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) and embryo mortality increased as temperature approached the upper end of the transitional range of temperatures (TRT) that produces both sexes (temperature producing 100% female offspring) in leatherback and olive ridley turtles. As thermal barriers are “higher” in some species than in others, the effects of climate warming on embryo mortality is likely to vary among sea turtles. Population resilience to climate warming may also depend on the balance between temperatures that produce female offspring and those that reduce embryo survival.

Neuroendocrine disruption of organizational and activational hormone programming in poikilothermic vertebrates

In vertebrates, sexual differentiation of the reproductive system and brain is tightly orchestrated by organizational and activational effects of endogenous hormones. In mammals and birds, the organizational period is typified by a surge of sex hormones during differentiation of specific neural circuits; whereas activational effects are dependent upon later increases in these same hormones at sexual maturation. Depending on the reproductive organ or brain region, initial programming events may be modulated by androgens or require conversion of androgens to estrogens. The prevailing notion based upon findings in mammalian models is that male brain is sculpted to undergo masculinization and defeminization. In absence of these responses, the female brain develops. While timing of organizational and activational events vary across taxa, there are shared features. Further, exposure of different animal models to environmental chemicals such as xenoestrogens such as bisphenol A-BPA and ethinylestradiol-EE2, gestagens, and thyroid hormone disruptors, broadly classified as neuroendocrine disrupting chemicals (NED), during these critical periods may result in similar alterations in brain structure, function, and consequently, behaviors. Organizational effects of neuroendocrine systems in mammals and birds appear to be permanent, whereas teleost fish neuroendocrine systems exhibit plasticity. While there are fewer NED studies in amphibians and reptiles, data suggest that NED disrupt normal organizational-activational effects of endogenous hormones, although it remains to be determined if these disturbances are reversible. The aim of this review is to examine how various environmental chemicals may interrupt normal organizational and activational events in poikilothermic vertebrates. By altering such processes, these chemicals may affect reproductive health of an animal and result in compromised populations and ecosystem-level effects.

Climate Impacts on Sea Turtle Breeding Phenology in Greece and Associated Foraging Habitats in the Wider Mediterranean Region

Sea turtles are vulnerable to climate change impacts in both their terrestrial (nesting beach) and oceanic habitats. From 1982 to 2012, air and sea surface temperatures at major high use foraging and nesting regions (n = 5) of loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) nesting in Greece have steadily increased. Here, we update the established relationships between sea surface temperature and nesting data from Zakynthos (latitude: 37.7°N), a major nesting beach, while also expanding these analyses to include precipitation and air temperature and additional nesting data from two other key beaches in Greece: Kyparissia Bay (latitude: 37.3°N) and Rethymno, Crete (latitude: 35.4°N). We confirmed that nesting phenology at Zakynthos has continued to be impacted by breeding season temperature; however, temperature has no consistent relationship with nest numbers, which are declining on Zakynthos and Crete but increasing at Kyparissia. Then using statistically downscaled outputs of 14 climate models assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we projected future shifts in nesting for these populations. Based on the climate models, we projected that temperature at the key foraging and breeding sites (Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, Crete, Gulf of Gabès and Zakynthos/Kyparissia Bay; overall latitudinal range: 33.0°-45.8°N) for loggerhead turtles nesting in Greece will rise by 3-5°C by 2100. Our calculations indicate that the projected rise in air and ocean temperature at Zakynthos could cause the nesting season in this major rookery to shift to an earlier date by as much as 50-74 days by 2100. Although an earlier onset of the nesting season may provide minor relief for nest success as temperatures rise, the overall climatic changes to the various important habitats will most likely have an overall negative impact on this population.

Male hatchling production in sea turtles from one of the world's largest marine protected areas, the Chagos Archipelago

Sand temperatures at nest depths and implications for hatchling sex ratios of hawksbill turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) and green turtles (Chelonia mydas) nesting in the Chagos Archipelago, Indian Ocean are reported and compared to similar measurements at rookeries in the Atlantic and Caribbean. During 2012–2014, temperature loggers were buried at depths and in beach zones representative of turtle nesting sites. Data collected for 12,546 days revealed seasonal and spatial patterns of sand temperature. Depth effects were minimal, perhaps modulated by shade from vegetation. Coolest and warmest temperatures were recorded in the sites heavily shaded in vegetation during the austral winter and in sites partially shaded in vegetation during summer respectively. Overall, sand temperatures were relatively cool during the nesting seasons of both species which would likely produce fairly balanced hatchling sex ratios of 53% and 63% male hatchlings, respectively, for hawksbill and green turtles. This result contrasts with the predominantly high female skew reported for offspring at most rookeries around the globe and highlights how local beach characteristics can drive incubation temperatures. Our evidence suggests that sites characterized by heavy shade associated with intact natural vegetation are likely to provide conditions suitable for male hatchling production in a warming world.