Climate change and larval transport in the ocean: fractional effects from physical and physiological factors

Variation in Oceanographic Resistance of the World's Coastlines to Invasion by Species With Planktonic Dispersal

For marine species with planktonic dispersal, invasion of open ocean coastlines is impaired by the physical adversity of ocean currents moving larvae downstream and offshore. The extent species are affected by physical adversity depends on interactions of the currents with larval life history traits such as planktonic duration, depth and seasonality. Ecologists have struggled to understand how these traits expose species to adverse ocean currents and affect their ability to persist when introduced to novel habitat. We use a high-resolution global ocean model to isolate the role of ocean currents on the persistence of a larval-producing species introduced to every open coastline of the world. We find physical adversity to invasion varies globally by several orders of magnitude. Larval duration is the most influential life history trait because increased duration prolongs species' exposure to ocean currents. Furthermore, variation of physical adversity with life history elucidates how trade-offs between dispersal traits vary globally.

Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change

Climate change impact syntheses, such as those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, consistently assert that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C is unlikely to safeguard most of the world's coral reefs. This prognosis is primarily based on a small subset of available models that apply similar 'excess heat' threshold methodologies. Our systematic review of 79 articles projecting coral reef responses to climate change revealed five main methods. 'Excess heat' models constituted one third (32%) of all studies but attracted a disproportionate share (68%) of citations in the field. Most methods relied on deterministic cause-and-effect rules rather than probabilistic relationships, impeding the field's ability to estimate uncertainty. To synthesize the available projections, we aimed to identify models with comparable outputs. However, divergent choices in model outputs and scenarios limited the analysis to a fraction of available studies. We found substantial discrepancies in the projected impacts, indicating that the subset of articles serving as a basis for climate change syntheses may project more severe consequences than other studies and methodologies. Drawing on insights from other fields, we propose methods to incorporate uncertainty into deterministic modeling approaches and propose a multi-model ensemble approach to generating probabilistic projections for coral reef futures.

Spatial variation and antecedent sea surface temperature conditions influence Hawaiian intertidal community structure

Global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are increasing, and in Hawai'i, rates of ocean warming are projected to double by the end of the 21st century. However, current nearshore warming trends and their possible impacts on intertidal communities are not well understood. This study represents the first investigation into the possible effects of rising SST on intertidal algal and invertebrate communities across the Main Hawaiian Islands (MHI). By utilizing citizen-science data coupled with high-resolution, daily SST satellite measurements from 12 intertidal sites across the MHI from 2004-2019, the response of intertidal algal and invertebrate abundance and community diversity to changes in SST was investigated across multiple spatial scales. Results show high rates of SST warming (0.40°C Decade-1) over this study's timeframe, similar to predicted rates of warming for Hawai'i by the end of the 21st century. Changes in abundance and diversity in response to SST were variable among intertidal sites, but differences in antecedent SST among intertidal sites were significantly associated with community dissimilarity. In addition, a statistically significant positive relationship was found between SST and Simpson's diversity index, and a significant relationship was also found between SST and the abundance of six dominant taxa. For five of these six dominant taxa, antecedent SSTs over the 6-12 months preceding sampling were the most influential for describing changes to abundance. The increase in community diversity in response to higher SSTs was best explained by temperatures in the 10 months preceding sampling, and the resultant decreased abundance of dominant turf algae. These results highlight rapidly warming nearshore SSTs in Hawai'i and the longer-term effects of antecedent SSTs as significant drivers of change within Hawaiian intertidal communities. Therefore, we suggest that future research and management should consider the possibility of lagging effects of antecedent SST on intertidal communities in Hawai'i and elsewhere.

Effects of marine heatwave conditions across the metamorphic transition to the juvenile sea urchin (Heliocidaris erythrogramma)

For short development species, like the sea urchin Heliocidaris erythrogramma, the entire planktonic duration can be impacted by marine heatwaves (MHW). Developmental thermal tolerance of this species through metamorphosis was investigated over a broad range (7.6-28.0 °C), including temperatures across its distribution and MHW conditions. In controls (19.5-21.0 °C), 80% of individuals developed to metamorphosis at day 5, doubling to 10 days at 14.0 °C. The thermal range (14.4-21.2 °C) of metamorphosis on day 7 reflected the realised thermal niche with 25.9 °C the upper temperature for success (T₄₀). By day 10, juvenile tolerance narrowed to the local range (16.2-19.0 °C), similar to levels tolerated by adults, indicating negative carryover effects across the metamorphic transition. Without phenotypic adjustment or adaptation, regional warming will be detrimental, although populations may be sustained by thermotolerant offspring. Our results show the importance of the metamorphic transition in understanding the cumulative sensitivity of species to MHW.

Temperature reduces fish dispersal as larvae grow faster to their settlement size

As species struggle to cope with rising ocean temperatures, temperate marine assemblages are facing major reorganization. Many benthic species have a brief but critical period dispersing through the plankton, when they are particularly susceptible to variations in temperature. Impacts of rising temperatures can thus ripple through the population with community-wide consequences. However, responses are highly species-specific, making it difficult to discern assemblage-wide patterns in the life histories of different fish species. Here, we evaluate the responses to temperature in the early life histories of several fish species using otolith reconstructive techniques. We also assess the consequences of future warming scenarios to this assemblage. We sampled recent settlers of nine common species across a temperature gradient in the Mediterranean Sea and obtained environmental data for each individual. Using otolith microstructure, we measured early life traits including pelagic larval duration (PLD), growth rate, settlement size, hatching and settlement dates. We used a GLM framework to examine how environmental variables influenced early life-history parameters. We show that increasing temperature results in considerable reduction in the dispersal potential of temperate fish. We find a nearly universal, assemblage-wide decline in pelagic larval duration (PLD) of between 10% and 25%. This was because, with increasing temperature, larvae grew quicker to their settlement size. Settlement size itself was less affected by temperature and appears to be an ontogenetically fixed process. Given current estimates of ocean warming, there could be an assemblage-wide reduction in larval dispersal of up to 50 km across the Mediterranean, reducing connectivity and potentially isolating populations as waters warm.

Automated flow control of a multi-lane swimming chamber for small fishes indicates species-specific sensitivity to experimental protocols

In fishes, swimming performance is considered an important metric to measure fitness, dispersal and migratory abilities. The swimming performance of individual larval fishes is often integrated into models to make inferences on how environmental parameters affect population-level dynamics (e.g. connectivity). However, little information exists regarding how experimental protocols affect the swimming performance of marine fish larvae. In addition, the technical setups used to measure larval fish swimming performance often lack automation and accurate control of water quality parameters and flow velocity. In this study, we automated the control of multi-lane swimming chambers for small fishes by developing an open-source algorithm. This automation allowed us to execute repeatable flow scenarios and reduce operator interference and inaccuracies in flow velocity typically associated with manual control. Furthermore, we made structural modifications to a prior design to reduce the areas of lower flow velocity. We then validated the flow dynamics of the new chambers using computational fluid dynamics and particle-tracking software. The algorithm provided an accurate alignment between the set and measured flow velocities and we used it to test whether faster critical swimming speed (U crit) protocols (i.e. shorter time intervals and higher velocity increments) would increase U crit of early life stages of two tropical fish species [4-10-mm standard length (SL)]. The U crit of barramundi (Lates calcarifer) and cinnamon anemonefish (Amphiprion melanopus) increased linearly with fish length, but in cinnamon anemonefish, U crit started to decrease upon metamorphosis. Swimming protocols using longer time intervals (more than 2.5 times increase) negatively affected U crit in cinnamon anemonefish but not in barramundi. These species-specific differences in swimming performance highlight the importance of testing suitable U crit protocols prior to experimentation. The automated control of flow velocity will create more accurate and repeatable data on swimming performance of larval fishes. Integrating refined measurements into individual-based models will support future research on the effects of environmental change.

A novel integrative approach elucidates fine-scale dispersal patchiness in marine populations

Dispersal is one of the main determining factors of population structure. In the marine habitat, well-connected populations with large numbers of reproducing individuals are common but even so population structure can exist on a small-scale. Variation in dispersal patterns between populations or over time is often associated to geographic distance or changing oceanographic barriers. Consequently, detecting structure and variation in dispersal on a fine-scale within marine populations still remains a challenge. Here we propose and use a novel approach of combining a clustering model, early-life history trait information from fish otoliths, spatial coordinates and genetic markers to detect very fine-scale dispersal patterns. We collected 1573 individuals (946 adults and 627 juveniles) of the black-faced blenny across a small-scale (2 km) coastline as well as at a larger-scale area (<50 kms). A total of 178 single nucleotide polymorphism markers were used to evaluate relatedness patterns within this well-connected population. In our clustering models we categorized SHORT-range dispersers to be potential local recruits based on their high relatedness within and low relatedness towards other spatial clusters. Local retention and/or dispersal of this potential local recruitment varied across the 2 km coastline with higher frequency of SHORT-range dispersers towards the southwest of the area for adults. An inverse pattern was found for juveniles, showing an increase of SHORT-range dispersers towards the northeast. As we rule out selective movement and mortality from one year to the next, this pattern reveals a complex but not full genetic mixing, and variability in coastal circulation is most likely the main driver of this fine-scale chaotic genetic patchiness within this otherwise homogeneous population. When focusing on the patterns within one recruitment season, we found large differences in temperatures (from approx. 17 °C to 25 °C) as well as pelagic larval duration (PLD) for juveniles from the beginning of the season and the end of the season. We were able to detect fine-scale differences in LONG-range juvenile dispersers, representing distant migrants, depending on whether they were born at the beginning of the season with a longer PLD, or at the end of the reproductive season. The ability to detect such fine-scale dispersal patchiness will aid in our understanding of the underlying mechanisms of population structuring and chaotic patchiness in a wide range of species even with high potential dispersal abilities.

Larval connectivity patterns of the North Indo-West Pacific coral reefs

Coral reefs of the North Indo-West Pacific provide important ecosystem services to the region but are subjected to multiple local and global threats. Strengthening management measures necessitate understanding the variability of larval connectivity and bridging global connectivity models to local scales. An individual-based Lagrangian biophysical model was used to simulate connectivity between coral reefs for three organisms with different early life history characteristics: a coral (Acropora millepora), a sea urchin (Tripneustes gratilla), and a reef fish (Epinephelus sp). Connectivity metrics and reef clusters were computed from the settlement probability matrices. Fitted power law functions derived from the dispersal kernels provided relative probabilities of connection given only the distance between reefs, and demonstrated that 95% of the larvae across organisms settled within a third of their maximum settlement distances. The magnitude of the connectivity metric values of reef cells were sensitive to differences both in the type of organism and temporal variability. Seasonal variability of connections was more dominant than interannual variability. However, despite these differences, the moderate to high correlation of metrics between organisms and seasonal matrices suggest that the spatial patterns are relatively similar between reefs. A cluster analysis based on the Bray-Curtis Dissimilarity of sink and source connections synthesized the inherent variability of these multiple large connectivity matrices. Through this, similarities in regional connectivity patterns were determined at various cluster sizes depending on the scale of interest. The validity of the model is supported by 1) the simulated dispersal kernels being within the range of reported parentage analysis estimates; and, 2) the clusters that emerged reflect the dispersal barriers implied by previously published population genetics studies. The tools presented here (dispersal kernels, temporal variability maps and reef clustering) can be used to include regional patterns of connectivity into the spatial management of coral reefs.

Evidence of local adaptation in a waterfall-climbing Hawaiian goby fish derived from coupled biophysical modeling of larval dispersal and post-settlement selection

Background

Local adaptation of marine and diadromous species is thought to be a product of larval dispersal, settlement mortality, and differential reproductive success, particularly in heterogeneous post-settlement habitats. We evaluated this premise with an oceanographic passive larval dispersal model coupled with individual-based models of post-settlement selection and reproduction to infer conditions that underlie local adaptation in Sicyopterus stimpsoni, an amphidromous Hawaiian goby known for its ability to climb waterfalls.

Results

Our model results demonstrated that larval dispersal is spatio-temporally asymmetric, with more larvae dispersed from the southeast (the Big Island) to northwest (Kaua‘i) along the archipelago, reflecting prevailing conditions such as El Niño/La Niña oscillations. Yet connectivity is nonetheless sufficient to result in homogenous populations across the archipelago. We also found, however, that ontogenetic shifts in habitat can give rise to adaptive morphological divergence when the strength of predation-driven post-settlement selection crosses a critical threshold. Notably, our simulations showed that larval dispersal is not the only factor determining the likelihood of morphological divergence. We found adaptive potential and evolutionary trajectories of S. stimpsoni were greater on islands with stronger environmental gradients and greater variance in larval cohort morphology due to fluctuating immigration.

Conclusions

Contrary to expectation, these findings indicate that immigration can act in concert with selection to favor local adaptation and divergence in species with marine larval dispersal. Further development of model simulations, parameterized to reflect additional empirical estimates of abiotic and biotic factors, will help advance our understanding of the proximate and ultimate mechanisms driving adaptive evolution, population resilience, and speciation in marine-associated species.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12862-019-1413-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Stepping stones to isolation: Impacts of a changing climate on the connectivity of fragmented fish populations

In the marine environment, understanding the biophysical mechanisms that drive variability in larval dispersal and population connectivity is essential for estimating the potential impacts of climate change on the resilience and genetic structure of populations. Species whose populations are small, isolated and discontinuous in distribution will differ fundamentally in their response and resilience to environmental stress, compared with species that are broadly distributed, abundant and frequently exchange conspecifics. Here, we use an individual-based modelling approach, combined with a population genetics projection model, to consider the impacts of a warming climate on the population connectivity of two contrasting Antarctic fish species, Notothenia rossii and Champsocephalus gunnari. Focussing on the Scotia Sea region, sea surface temperatures are predicted to increase significantly by the end of the 21st century, resulting in reduced planktonic duration and increased egg and larval mortality. With shorter planktonic durations, the results of our study predict reduced dispersal of both species across the Scotia Sea, from Antarctic Peninsula sites to islands in the north and east, and increased dispersal among neighbouring sites, such as around the Antarctic Peninsula. Increased mortality modified the magnitude of population connectivity but had little effect on the overall patterns. Whilst the predicted changes in connectivity had little impact on the projected regional population genetic structure of N. rossii, which remained broadly genetically homogeneous within distances of ~1,500 km, the genetic isolation of C. gunnari populations in the northern Scotia Sea was predicted to increase with rising sea temperatures. Our study highlights the potential for increased isolation of island populations in a warming world, with implications for the resilience of populations and their ability to adapt to ongoing environmental change, a matter of high relevance to fisheries and ecosystem-level management.

Complex effect of projected sea temperature and wind change on flatfish dispersal

Climate change not only alters ocean physics and chemistry but also affects the biota. Larval dispersal patterns from spawning to nursery grounds and larval survival are driven by hydrodynamic processes and shaped by (a)biotic environmental factors. Therefore, it is important to understand the impacts of increased temperature rise and changes in wind speed and direction on larval drift and survival. We apply a particle-tracking model coupled to a 3D-hydrodynamic model of the English Channel and the North Sea to study the dispersal dynamics of the exploited flatfish (common) sole (Solea solea). We first assess model robustness and interannual variability in larval transport over the period 1995-2011. Then, using a subset of representative years (2003-2011), we investigate the impact of climate change on larval dispersal, connectivity patterns and recruitment at the nursery grounds. The impacts of five scenarios inspired by the 2040 projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are discussed and compared with interannual variability. The results suggest that 33% of the year-to-year recruitment variability is explained at a regional scale and that a 9-year period is sufficient to capture interannual variability in dispersal dynamics. In the scenario involving a temperature increase, early spawning and a wind change, the model predicts that (i) dispersal distance (+70%) and pelagic larval duration (+22%) will increase in response to the reduced temperature (-9%) experienced by early hatched larvae, (ii) larval recruitment at the nursery grounds will increase in some areas (36%) and decrease in others (-58%) and (iii) connectivity will show contrasting changes between areas. At the regional scale, our model predicts considerable changes in larval recruitment (+9%) and connectivity (retention -4% and seeding +37%) due to global change. All of these factors affect the distribution and productivity of sole and therefore the functioning of the demersal ecosystem and fisheries management.

Going with the flow: the role of ocean circulation in global marine ecosystems under a changing climate

Ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced productivity are widely considered to be the major stressors to ocean ecosystems induced by emissions of CO₂ . However, an overlooked stressor is the change in ocean circulation in response to climate change. Strong changes in the intensity and position of the western boundary currents have already been observed, and the consequences of such changes for ecosystems are beginning to emerge. In this study, we address climatically induced changes in ocean circulation on a global scale but relevant to propagule dispersal for species inhabiting global shelf ecosystems, using a high-resolution global ocean model run under the IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario. The ¼ degree model resolution allows improved regional realism of the ocean circulation beyond that of available CMIP5-class models. We use a Lagrangian approach forced by modelled ocean circulation to simulate the circulation pathways that disperse planktonic life stages. Based on trajectory backtracking, we identify present-day coastal retention, dominant flow and dispersal range for coastal regions at the global scale. Projecting into the future, we identify areas of the strongest projected circulation change and present regional examples with the most significant modifications in their dominant pathways. Climatically induced changes in ocean circulation should be considered as an additional stressor of marine ecosystems in a similar way to ocean warming or acidification.

From global to regional and back again: common climate stressors of marine ecosystems relevant for adaptation across five ocean warming hotspots

Ocean warming 'hotspots' are regions characterized by above-average temperature increases over recent years, for which there are significant consequences for both living marine resources and the societies that depend on them. As such, they represent early warning systems for understanding the impacts of marine climate change, and test-beds for developing adaptation options for coping with those impacts. Here, we examine five hotspots off the coasts of eastern Australia, South Africa, Madagascar, India and Brazil. These particular hotspots have underpinned a large international partnership that is working towards improving community adaptation by characterizing, assessing and projecting the likely future of coastal-marine food resources through the provision and sharing of knowledge. To inform this effort, we employ a high-resolution global ocean model forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and simulated to year 2099. In addition to the sea surface temperature, we analyse projected stratification, nutrient supply, primary production, anthropogenic CO2 -driven ocean acidification, deoxygenation and ocean circulation. Our simulation finds that the temperature-defined hotspots studied here will continue to experience warming but, with the exception of eastern Australia, may not remain the fastest warming ocean areas over the next century as the strongest warming is projected to occur in the subpolar and polar areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, we find that recent rapid change in SST is not necessarily an indicator that these areas are also hotspots of the other climatic stressors examined. However, a consistent facet of the hotspots studied here is that they are all strongly influenced by ocean circulation, which has already shown changes in the recent past and is projected to undergo further strong change into the future. In addition to the fast warming, change in local ocean circulation represents a distinct feature of present and future climate change impacting marine ecosystems in these areas.