Risks of ocean acidification in the California Current food web and fisheries: ecosystem model projections

Combining mesocosms with models reveals effects of global warming and ocean acidification on a temperate marine ecosystem

Ocean warming and species exploitation have already caused large-scale reorganization of biological communities across the world. Accurate projections of future biodiversity change require a comprehensive understanding of how entire communities respond to global change. We combined a time-dynamic integrated food web modeling approach (Ecosim) with previous data from community-level mesocosm experiments to determine the independent and combined effects of ocean warming, ocean acidification and fisheries exploitation on a well-managed temperate coastal ecosystem. The mesocosm parameters enabled important physiological and behavioral responses to climate stressors to be projected for trophic levels ranging from primary producers to top predators, including sharks. Through model simulations, we show that under sustainable rates of fisheries exploitation, near-future warming or ocean acidification in isolation could benefit species biomass at higher trophic levels (e.g., mammals, birds, and demersal finfish) in their current climate ranges, with the exception of small pelagic fishes. However, under warming and acidification combined, biomass increases at higher trophic levels will be lower or absent, while in the longer term reduced productivity of prey species is unlikely to support the increased biomass at the top of the food web. We also show that increases in exploitation will suppress any positive effects of human-driven climate change, causing individual species biomass to decrease at higher trophic levels. Nevertheless, total future potential biomass of some fisheries species in temperate areas might remain high, particularly under acidification, because unharvested opportunistic species will likely benefit from decreased competition and show an increase in biomass. Ecological indicators of species composition such as the Shannon diversity index decline under all climate change scenarios, suggesting a trade-off between biomass gain and functional diversity. By coupling parameters from multilevel mesocosm food web experiments with dynamic food web models, we were able to simulate the generative mechanisms that drive complex responses of temperate marine ecosystems to global change. This approach, which blends theory with experimental data, provides new prospects for forecasting climate-driven biodiversity change and its effects on ecosystem processes.

Feedbacks Between Estuarine Metabolism and Anthropogenic CO2 Accelerate Local Rates of Ocean Acidification and Hasten Threshold Exceedances

Attribution of the ocean acidification (OA) signal in estuarine carbonate system observations is necessary for quantifying the impacts of global anthropogenicCO 2 emissions on water quality, and informing managers of the efficacy of potential mitigation options. We present an analysis of observational data to characterize dynamics and drivers of seasonal carbonate system variability in two seagrass habitats of Puget Sound, WA, USA, and estimate how carbon accumulations due to anthropogenicCO 2 emissionsC anth interact with these drivers of carbonate chemistry to determine seasonally resolved rates of acidification in these habitats. Three independent simulations ofC anth accumulation from 1765 to 2100 were run using two previously published methods and one novel method forC anth estimation. Our results revealed persistent seasonal differences in the magnitude of carbonate system responses to anthropogenicCO 2 emissions caused by seasonal metabolic changes to the buffering capacity of estuarine waters. The seasonal variability ofpH T and p CO 2 is increased (while that ofΩ aragonite is decreased) and acidification rates are accelerated when compared with open-ocean estimates, highlighting how feedbacks between local metabolism andC anth can control the susceptibility of estuarine habitats to OA impacts. The changes in seasonal variability can shorten the timeline to exceedance of established physiological thresholds for endemic organisms and existing Washington State water quality criteria for pH. We highlight howC anth estimation uncertainties manifest in shallow coastal waters and limit our ability to predict impacts to coastal organisms and ecosystems from anthropogenicCO 2 emissions.

Quantifying the combined impacts of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and watershed alteration on estuary acidification at biologically-relevant time scales: a case study from Tillamook Bay, OR, USA

The impacts of ocean acidification (OA) on coastal water quality have been subject to intensive research in the past decade, but how emissions-driven OA combines with human modifications of coastal river inputs to affect estuarine acidification dynamics is less well understood. This study presents a methodology for quantifying the synergistic water quality impacts of OA and riverine acidification on biologically-relevant timescales through a case study from a small, temperate estuary influenced by coastal upwelling and watershed development. We characterized the dynamics and drivers of carbonate chemistry in Tillamook Bay, OR (USA), along with its coastal ocean and riverine end-members, through a series of synoptic samplings and continuous water quality monitoring from July 2017 to July 2018. Synoptic river sampling showed acidification and increasedCO 2 content in areas with higher proportions of watershed anthropogenic land use. We propagated the impacts of 1). the observed riverine acidification, and 2). modeled OA changes to incoming coastal ocean waters across the full estuarine salinity spectrum and quantified changes in estuarine carbonate chemistry at a 15-minute temporal resolution. The largest magnitude of acidification (-1.4pH ⊤ units) was found in oligo- and mesohaline portions of the estuary due to the poor buffering characteristics of these waters, and was primarily driven by acidified riverine inputs. Despite this, emissions-driven OA is responsible for over 94% of anthropogenic carbon loading to Tillamook Bay and the dominant driver of acidification across most of the estuary due to its large tidal prism and relatively small river discharges. This dominance of ocean-sourced anthropogenic carbon challenges the efficacy of local management actions to ameliorate estuarine acidification impacts. Despite the relatively large acidification effects experienced in Tillamook Bay (-0.16 to -0.23 p H ⊤ units) as compared with typical open ocean change (approximately -0.1pH ⊤ units), observations of estuarinepH ⊤ would meet existing state standards forpH ⊤ . Our analytical framework addresses pressing needs for water quality assessment and coastal resilience strategies to differentiate the impacts of anthropogenic acidification from natural variability in dynamic estuarine systems.

An updated end-to-end ecosystem model of the Northern California Current reflecting ecosystem changes due to recent marine heatwaves

The Northern California Current is a highly productive marine upwelling ecosystem that is economically and ecologically important. It is home to both commercially harvested species and those that are federally listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Recently, there has been a global shift from single-species fisheries management to ecosystem-based fisheries management, which acknowledges that more complex dynamics can reverberate through a food web. Here, we have integrated new research into an end-to-end ecosystem model (i.e., physics to fisheries) using data from long-term ocean surveys, phytoplankton satellite imagery paired with a vertically generalized production model, a recently assembled diet database, fishery catch information, species distribution models, and existing literature. This spatially-explicit model includes 90 living and detrital functional groups ranging from phytoplankton, krill, and forage fish to salmon, seabirds, and marine mammals, and nine fisheries that occur off the coast of Washington, Oregon, and Northern California. This model was updated from previous regional models to account for more recent changes in the Northern California Current (e.g., increases in market squid and some gelatinous zooplankton such as pyrosomes and salps), to expand the previous domain to increase the spatial resolution, to include data from previously unincorporated surveys, and to add improved characterization of endangered species, such as Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and southern resident killer whales (Orcinus orca). Our model is mass-balanced, ecologically plausible, without extinctions, and stable over 150-year simulations. Ammonium and nitrate availability, total primary production rates, and model-derived phytoplankton time series are within realistic ranges. As we move towards holistic ecosystem-based fisheries management, we must continue to openly and collaboratively integrate our disparate datasets and collective knowledge to solve the intricate problems we face. As a tool for future research, we provide the data and code to use our ecosystem model.

Northeast Atlantic elasmobranch community on the move: Functional reorganization in response to climate change

While spatial distribution shifts have been documented in many marine fishes under global change, the responses of elasmobranchs have rarely been studied, which may have led to an underestimation of their potential additional threats. Given their irreplaceable role in ecosystems and their high extinction risk, we used a 24-year time series (1997-2020) of scientific bottom trawl surveys to examine the effects of climate change on the spatial distribution of nine elasmobranch species within Northeast Atlantic waters. Using a hierarchical modeling of species communities, belonging to the joint species distribution models, we found that suitable habitats for four species increased on average by a factor of 1.6 and, for six species, shifted north-eastwards and/or to deeper waters over the past two decades. By integrating species traits, we showed changes in habitat suitability led to changes in the elasmobranchs trait composition. Moreover, communities shifted to deeper waters and their mean trophic level decreased. We also note an increase in the mean community size at maturity concurrent with a decrease in fecundity. Because skates and sharks are functionally unique and dangerously vulnerable to both climate change and fishing, we advocate for urgent considerations of species traits in management measures. Their use would make it better to identify species whose loss could have irreversible impacts in face of the myriad of anthropogenic threats.

Sex-specific responses of Ruditapes philippinarum to ocean acidification following gonadal maturation

Ocean acidification (OA) can seriously affect marine bivalves at different levels of biological organization, generating widespread consequences on progeny recruitment and population maintenance. Yet, few effort has been devoted to elucidating whether female and male bivalves respond differentially to OA in their reproductive seasons. Here, we estimated differences in physiological responses of female and male Manila clams (Ruditapes philippinarum) to OA during gonadal maturation. In comparison to OA-stressed male clams, females significantly depressed activities in enzymes related to energy metabolism (NKA, T-ATP), antioxidant defence (SOD and MDA), and non-specific immune function (ACP), and downregulated expression of AMPK that plays a key role in cellular metabolism, indicating that sex did significantly affect responses of R. philippinarum to OA. Such sex-based differences can be likely couched in energetic terms, given the much more energetically expensive cost of egg production than that of sperms. These results indicate that sex-specific responses to OA during reproductive seasons do exist in marine bivalves, and therefore accounting for such sex specificity is of paramount importance when projecting population sustainability and formulating conservation strategies in an acidifying ocean.

Dual-Lifetime Referencing (t-DLR) Optical Fiber Fluorescent pH Sensor for Microenvironments

The pH behavior in the μm to cm thick diffusion boundary layer (DBL) surrounding many aquatic species is dependent on light-controlled metabolic activities. This DBL microenvironment exhibits different pH behavior to bulk seawater, which can reduce the exposure of calcifying species to ocean acidification conditions. A low-cost time-domain dual-lifetime referencing (t-DLR) interrogation system and an optical fiber fluorescent pH sensor were developed for pH measurements in the DBL interface. The pH sensor utilized dual-layer sol-gel coatings of pH-sensitive iminocoumarin and pH-insensitive Ru(dpp)3-PAN. The sensor has a dynamic range of 7.41 (±0.20) to 9.42 ± 0.23 pH units (95% CI, T = 20 °C, S = 35), a response time (t90) of 29 to 100 s, and minimal salinity dependency. The pH sensor has a precision of approximately 0.02 pHT units, which meets the Global Ocean Acidification Observing Network (GOA-ON) "weather" measurement quality guideline. The suitability of the t-DLR optical fiber pH sensor was demonstrated through real-time measurements in the DBL of green seaweed Ulva sp. This research highlights the practicability of optical fiber pH sensors by demonstrating real-time pH measurements of metabolic-induced pH changes.

Species redistribution creates unequal outcomes for multispecies fisheries under projected climate change

Climate change drives species distribution shifts, affecting the availability of resources people rely upon for food and livelihoods. These impacts are complex, manifest at local scales, and have diverse effects across multiple species. However, for wild capture fisheries, current understanding is dominated by predictions for individual species at coarse spatial scales. We show that species-specific responses to localized environmental changes will alter the collection of co-occurring species within established fishing footprints along the U.S. West Coast. We demonstrate that availability of the most economically valuable, primary target species is highly likely to decline coastwide in response to warming and reduced oxygen concentrations, while availability of the most abundant, secondary target species will potentially increase. A spatial reshuffling of primary and secondary target species suggests regionally heterogeneous opportunities for fishers to adapt by changing where or what they fish. Developing foresight into the collective responses of species at local scales will enable more effective and tangible adaptation pathways for fishing communities.

Climate Change Impacts on Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems

The world's eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUSs) contribute disproportionately to global ocean productivity and provide critical ecosystem services to human society. The impact of climate change on EBUSs and the ecosystems they support is thus a subject of considerable interest. Here, we review hypotheses of climate-driven change in the physics, biogeochemistry, and ecology of EBUSs; describe observed changes over recent decades; and present projected changes over the twenty-first century. Similarities in historical and projected change among EBUSs include a trend toward upwelling intensification in poleward regions, mitigatedwarming in near-coastal regions where upwelling intensifies, and enhanced water-column stratification and a shoaling mixed layer. However, there remains significant uncertainty in how EBUSs will evolve with climate change, particularly in how the sometimes competing changes in upwelling intensity, source-water chemistry, and stratification will affect productivity and ecosystem structure. We summarize the commonalities and differences in historical and projected change in EBUSs and conclude with an assessment of key remaining uncertainties and questions. Future studies will need to address these questions to better understand, project, and adapt to climate-driven changes in EBUSs.

Biological sensitivities to high-resolution climate change projections in the California current marine ecosystem

The California Current Marine Ecosystem is a highly productive system that exhibits strong natural variability and vulnerability to anthropogenic climate trends. Relating projections of ocean change to biological sensitivities requires detailed synthesis of experimental results. Here, we combine measured biological sensitivities with high-resolution climate projections of key variables (temperature, oxygen, and pCO₂ ) to identify the direction, magnitude, and spatial distribution of organism-scale vulnerabilities to multiple axes of projected ocean change. Among 12 selected species of cultural and economic importance, we find that all are sensitive to projected changes in ocean conditions through responses that affect individual performance or population processes. Response indices were largest in the northern region and inner shelf. While performance traits generally increased with projected changes, fitness traits generally decreased, indicating that concurrent stresses can lead to fitness loss. For two species, combining sensitivities to temperature and oxygen changes through the Metabolic Index shows how aerobic habitat availability could be compressed under future conditions. Our results suggest substantial and specific ecological susceptibility in the next 80 years, including potential regional loss of canopy-forming kelp, changes in nearshore food webs caused by declining rates of survival among red urchins, Dungeness crab, and razor clams, and loss of aerobic habitat for anchovy and pink shrimp. We also highlight fillable gaps in knowledge, including specific physiological responses to stressors, variation in responses across life stages, and responses to multistressor combinations. These findings strengthen the case for filling information gaps with experiments focused on fitness-related responses and those that can be used to parameterize integrative physiological models, and suggest that the CCME is susceptible to substantial changes to ecosystem structure and function within this century.

Social-ecological vulnerability of fishing communities to climate change: A U.S. West Coast case study

Climate change is already impacting coastal communities, and ongoing and future shifts in fisheries species productivity from climate change have implications for the livelihoods and cultures of coastal communities. Harvested marine species in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem support U.S. West Coast communities economically, socially, and culturally. Ecological vulnerability assessments exist for individual species in the California Current but ecological and human vulnerability are linked and vulnerability is expected to vary by community. Here, we present automatable, reproducible methods for assessing the vulnerability of U.S. West Coast fishing dependent communities to climate change within a social-ecological vulnerability framework. We first assessed the ecological risk of marine resources, on which fishing communities rely, to 50 years of climate change projections. We then combined this with the adaptive capacity of fishing communities, based on social indicators, to assess the potential ability of communities to cope with future changes. Specific communities (particularly in Washington state) were determined to be at risk to climate change mainly due to economic reliance on at risk marine fisheries species, like salmon, hake, or sea urchins. But, due to higher social adaptive capacity, these communities were often not found to be the most vulnerable overall. Conversely, certain communities that were not the most at risk, ecologically and economically, ranked in the category of highly vulnerable communities due to low adaptive capacity based on social indicators (particularly in Southern California). Certain communities were both ecologically at risk due to catch composition and socially vulnerable (low adaptive capacity) leading to the highest tier of vulnerability. The integration of climatic, ecological, economic, and societal data reveals that factors underlying vulnerability are variable across fishing communities on the U.S West Coast, and suggests the need to develop a variety of well-aligned strategies to adapt to the ecological impacts of climate change.

Practical implementation of cumulative‐effects management of marine ecosystems in western North America

Globally, ecosystem structure and function have been degraded by the cumulative effects (CE) of multiple stressors. To maintain ecosystem resilience, there is an urgent need to better account for CE in management decision‐making at various scales. Current laws and regulations are supported by a multitude of frameworks and strategies that vary in application and terminology use across management agencies and geopolitical boundaries. We synthesized management frameworks that accounted for CE in marine ecosystems at the regional and national levels across western North America (Canada, United States, Mexico) to identify similarities and shared challenges to successful implementation. We examined examples of solutions to the identified challenges (e.g., interagency and cross‐border partnerships to overcome challenges of managing for ecologically relevant spatial scales). Management frameworks in general consisted of 3 phases: scoping and structuring the system; characterizing relationships; and evaluating management options. Challenges in the robust implementation of these phases included lack of interagency coordination, minimal incorporation of diverse perspectives, and data deficiencies. Cases that provided solutions to these challenges encouraged coordination at ecological rather than jurisdictional scales, enhanced involvement of stakeholders and Indigenous groups, and used nontraditional data sources for decision‐making. Broader implementation of these approaches, combined with increased interagency and international coordination and collaboration, should facilitate the rapid advancement of more effective CE assessment and ecosystem management in North America and elsewhere.

Risk Assessment for Key Socio-Economic and Ecological Species in a Sub-Arctic Marine Ecosystem Under Combined Ocean Acidification and Warming

The Arctic may be particularly vulnerable to the consequences of both ocean acidification (OA) and global warming, given the faster pace of these processes in comparison with global average speeds. Here, we use the Atlantis ecosystem model to assess how the trophic network of marine fishes and invertebrates in the Icelandic waters is responding to the combined pressures of OA and warming. We develop an approach where we first identify species by their economic (catch value), social (number of participants in fisheries), or ecological (keystone species) importance. We then use literature-determined ranges of sensitivity to OA and warming for different species and functional groups in the Icelandic waters to parametrize model runs for different scenarios of warming and OA. We found divergent species responses to warming and acidification levels; (mainly) planktonic groups and forage fish benefited while (mainly) benthic groups and predatory fish decreased under warming and acidification scenarios. Assuming conservative harvest rates for the largest catch-value species, Atlantic cod, we see that the population is projected to remain stable under even the harshest acidification and warming scenario. Further, for the scenarios where the model projects reductions in biomass of Atlantic cod, other species in the ecosystem increase, likely due to a reduction in competition and predation. These results highlight the interdependencies of multiple global change drivers and their cascading effects on trophic organization, and the continued high abundance of an important species from a socio-economic perspective in the Icelandic fisheries.

Responses of marine ecosystems to climate change impacts and their treatment in biogeochemical ecosystem models

To predict the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems and the effectiveness of intervention and mitigation strategies, we need reliable marine ecosystem response models such as biogeochemical models that reproduce climate change effects. We reviewed marine ecosystem parameters and processes that are modified by climate change and examined their representations in biogeochemical ecosystem models. The interactions among important aspects of marine ecosystem modelling are not often considered due to complexity: these include the use of multiple IPCC scenarios, ensemble modelling approach, independent calibration datasets, the consideration of changes in cloud cover, ocean currents, wind speed, sea-level rise, storm frequency, storm intensity, and the incorporation of species adaptation to changing environmental conditions. Including our recommendations in future marine modelling studies could help improve the accuracy and reliability of model predictions of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems.

Forecasting ocean acidification impacts on kelp forest ecosystems

Ocean acidification is one the biggest threats to marine ecosystems worldwide, but its ecosystem wide responses are still poorly understood. This study integrates field and experimental data into a mass balance food web model of a temperate coastal ecosystem to determine the impacts of specific OA forcing mechanisms as well as how they interact with one another. Specifically, we forced a food web model of a kelp forest ecosystem near its southern distribution limit in the California large marine ecosystem to a 0.5 pH drop over the course of 50 years. This study utilizes a modeling approach to determine the impacts of specific OA forcing mechanisms as well as how they interact. Isolating OA impacts on growth (Production), mortality (Other Mortality), and predation interactions (Vulnerability) or combining all three mechanisms together leads to a variety of ecosystem responses, with some taxa increasing in abundance and other decreasing. Results suggest that carbonate mineralizing groups such as coralline algae, abalone, snails, and lobsters display the largest decreases in biomass while macroalgae, urchins, and some larger fish species display the largest increases. Low trophic level groups such as giant kelp and brown algae increase in biomass by 16% and 71%, respectively. Due to the diverse way in which OA stress manifests at both individual and population levels, ecosystem-level effects can vary and display nonlinear patterns. Combined OA forcing leads to initial increases in ecosystem and commercial biomasses followed by a decrease in commercial biomass below initial values over time, while ecosystem biomass remains high. Both biodiversity and average trophic level decrease over time. These projections indicate that the kelp forest community would maintain high productivity with a 0.5 drop in pH, but with a substantially different community structure characterized by lower biodiversity and relatively greater dominance by lower trophic level organisms.

Climate change threatens Chinook salmon throughout their life cycle

Widespread declines in Atlantic and Pacific salmon (Salmo salar and Oncorhynchus spp.) have tracked recent climate changes, but managers still lack quantitative projections of the viability of any individual population in response to future climate change. To address this gap, we assembled a vast database of survival and other data for eight wild populations of threatened Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha). For each population, we evaluated climate impacts at all life stages and modeled future trajectories forced by global climate model projections. Populations rapidly declined in response to increasing sea surface temperatures and other factors across diverse model assumptions and climate scenarios. Strong density dependence limited the number of salmon that survived early life stages, suggesting a potentially efficacious target for conservation effort. Other solutions require a better understanding of the factors that limit survival at sea. We conclude that dramatic increases in smolt survival are needed to overcome the negative impacts of climate change for this threatened species.

Synergistic interactions among growing stressors increase risk to an Arctic ecosystem

Oceans provide critical ecosystem services, but are subject to a growing number of external pressures, including overfishing, pollution, habitat destruction, and climate change. Current models typically treat stressors on species and ecosystems independently, though in reality, stressors often interact in ways that are not well understood. Here, we use a network interaction model (OSIRIS) to explicitly study stressor interactions in the Chukchi Sea (Arctic Ocean) due to its extensive climate-driven loss of sea ice and accelerated growth of other stressors, including shipping and oil exploration. The model includes numerous trophic levels ranging from phytoplankton to polar bears. We find that climate-related stressors have a larger impact on animal populations than do acute stressors like increased shipping and subsistence harvesting. In particular, organisms with a strong temperature-growth rate relationship show the greatest changes in biomass as interaction strength increased, but also exhibit the greatest variability. Neglecting interactions between stressors vastly underestimates the risk of population crashes. Our results indicate that models must account for stressor interactions to enable responsible management and decision-making.

OSIRIS: A model for integrating the effects of multiple stressors on marine ecosystems

While much has been learnt about the impacts of specific stressors on individual marine organisms, considerable debate exists over the nature and impact of multiple simultaneous stressors on both individual species and marine ecosystems. We describe a modelling tool (OSIRIS) for integrating the effects of multiple simultaneous stressors. The model is relatively computationally light, and demonstrated using a coarse-grained, non-spatial and simplified representation of a temperate marine ecosystem. This version is capable of reproducing a wide range of dynamic responses. Results indicate the degree to which interactions are synergistic is crucial in determining sensitivity to forcing, particularly for the higher trophic levels, which can respond non-linearly to stronger forcing. Stronger synergistic interactions sensitize the system to variability in forcing, and combinations of stronger forcing, noise and synergies between effects are particularly potent. This work also underlines the significant potential risk incurred in treating stressors on ecosystems as individual and additive.

Uncovering mechanisms of global ocean change effects on the Dungeness crab (Cancer magister) through metabolomics analysis

The Dungeness crab is an economically and ecologically important species distributed along the North American Pacific coast. To predict how Dungeness crab may physiologically respond to future global ocean change on a molecular level, we performed untargeted metabolomic approaches on individual Dungeness crab juveniles reared in treatments that mimicked current and projected future pH and dissolved oxygen conditions. We found 94 metabolites and 127 lipids responded in a condition-specific manner, with a greater number of known compounds more strongly responding to low oxygen than low pH exposure. Pathway analysis of these compounds revealed that juveniles may respond to low oxygen through evolutionarily conserved processes including downregulating glutathione biosynthesis and upregulating glycogen storage, and may respond to low pH by increasing ATP production. Most interestingly, we found that the response of juveniles to combined low pH and low oxygen exposure was most similar to the low oxygen exposure response, indicating low oxygen may drive the physiology of juvenile crabs more than pH. Our study elucidates metabolic dynamics that expand our overall understanding of how the species might respond to future ocean conditions and provides a comprehensive dataset that could be used in future ocean acidification response studies.

Elevated CO2 impairs olfactory-mediated neural and behavioral responses and gene expression in ocean-phase coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch)

Elevated concentrations of CO₂ in seawater can disrupt numerous sensory systems in marine fish. This is of particular concern for Pacific salmon because they rely on olfaction during all aspects of their life including during their homing migrations from the ocean back to their natal streams. We investigated the effects of elevated seawater CO₂ on coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) olfactory-mediated behavior, neural signaling, and gene expression within the peripheral and central olfactory system. Ocean-phase coho salmon were exposed to three levels of CO₂ , ranging from those currently found in ambient marine water to projected future levels. Juvenile coho salmon exposed to elevated CO₂ levels for 2 weeks no longer avoided a skin extract odor that elicited avoidance responses in coho salmon maintained in ambient CO₂ seawater. Exposure to these elevated CO₂ levels did not alter odor signaling in the olfactory epithelium, but did induce significant changes in signaling within the olfactory bulb. RNA-Seq analysis of olfactory tissues revealed extensive disruption in expression of genes involved in neuronal signaling within the olfactory bulb of salmon exposed to elevated CO₂ , with lesser impacts on gene expression in the olfactory rosettes. The disruption in olfactory bulb gene pathways included genes associated with GABA signaling and maintenance of ion balance within bulbar neurons. Our results indicate that ocean-phase coho salmon exposed to elevated CO₂ can experience significant behavioral impairments likely driven by alteration in higher-order neural signal processing within the olfactory bulb. Our study demonstrates that anadromous fish such as salmon may share a sensitivity to rising CO₂ levels with obligate marine species suggesting a more wide-scale ecological impact of ocean acidification.

Investigating cumulative effects across ecological scales

Species, habitats, and ecosystems are increasingly exposed to multiple anthropogenic stressors, fueling a rapidly expanding research program to understand the cumulative impacts of these environmental modifications. Since the 1970s, a growing set of methods has been developed through two parallel, sometimes connected, streams of research within the applied and academic realms to assess cumulative effects. Past reviews of cumulative effects assessment (CEA) methods focused on approaches used by practitioners. Academic research has developed several distinct and novel approaches to conducting CEA. Understanding the suite of methods that exist will help practitioners and academics better address various ecological foci (physiological responses, population impacts, ecosystem impacts) and ecological complexities (synergistic effects, impacts across space and time). We reviewed 6 categories of methods (experimental, meta-analysis, single-species modeling, mapping, qualitative modeling, and multispecies modeling) and examined the ability of those methods to address different levels of complexity. We focused on research gaps and emerging priorities. We found that no single method assessed impacts across the 4 ecological foci and 6 ecological complexities considered. We propose that methods can be used in combination to improve understanding such that multimodel inference can provide a suite of comparable outputs, mapping methods can help prioritize localized models or experimental gaps, and future experiments can be paired from the outset with models they will inform.

Persistent spatial structuring of coastal ocean acidification in the California Current System

The near-term progression of ocean acidification (OA) is projected to bring about sharp changes in the chemistry of coastal upwelling ecosystems. The distribution of OA exposure across these early-impact systems, however, is highly uncertain and limits our understanding of whether and how spatial management actions can be deployed to ameliorate future impacts. Through a novel coastal OA observing network, we have uncovered a remarkably persistent spatial mosaic in the penetration of acidified waters into ecologically-important nearshore habitats across 1,000 km of the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem. In the most severe exposure hotspots, suboptimal conditions for calcifying organisms encompassed up to 56% of the summer season, and were accompanied by some of the lowest and most variable pH environments known for the surface ocean. Persistent refuge areas were also found, highlighting new opportunities for local adaptation to address the global challenge of OA in productive coastal systems.