Estimating the ability of plants to plastically track temperature-mediated shifts in the spring phenological optimum

Buffering and phenological mismatch: A change of perspective

The potential for climate change to disrupt phenology-mediated interactions in interaction networks has attracted considerable attention in recent decades. Frequently, studies emphasize the fragility of ephemeral seasonal interactions, and the risks posed by phenological asynchrony. Here, we argue that the fitness consequences of asynchrony in phenological interactions may often be more buffered than is typically acknowledged. We identify three main forms that buffering may take: (i) mechanisms that reduce asynchrony between consumer and resource; (ii) mechanisms that reduce the costs of being asynchronous; and (iii) mechanisms that dampen interannual variance in performance across higher organizational units. Using synchrony between the hatching of winter moth caterpillars and the leafing of their host-plants as a case study, we identify a wide variety of buffers that reduce the detrimental consequences of phenological asynchrony on caterpillar individuals, populations, and meta-populations. We follow this by drawing on examples across a breadth of taxa, and demonstrate that these buffering mechanisms may be quite general. We conclude by identifying key gaps in our knowledge of the fitness and demographic consequences of buffering, in the context of phenological mismatch. Buffering has the potential to substantially alter our understanding of the biotic impacts of future climate change-a greater recognition of the contribution of these mechanisms may reveal that many trophic interactions are surprisingly resilient, and also serve to shift research emphasis to those systems with fewer buffers and towards identifying the limits of those buffers.

Space-for-time substitutions in climate change ecology and evolution

In an epoch of rapid environmental change, understanding and predicting how biodiversity will respond to a changing climate is an urgent challenge. Since we seldom have sufficient long-term biological data to use the past to anticipate the future, spatial climate-biotic relationships are often used as a proxy for predicting biotic responses to climate change over time. These 'space-for-time substitutions' (SFTS) have become near ubiquitous in global change biology, but with different subfields largely developing methods in isolation. We review how climate-focussed SFTS are used in four subfields of ecology and evolution, each focussed on a different type of biotic variable - population phenotypes, population genotypes, species' distributions, and ecological communities. We then examine the similarities and differences between subfields in terms of methods, limitations and opportunities. While SFTS are used for a wide range of applications, two main approaches are applied across the four subfields: spatial in situ gradient methods and transplant experiments. We find that SFTS methods share common limitations relating to (i) the causality of identified spatial climate-biotic relationships and (ii) the transferability of these relationships, i.e. whether climate-biotic relationships observed over space are equivalent to those occurring over time. Moreover, despite widespread application of SFTS in climate change research, key assumptions remain largely untested. We highlight opportunities to enhance the robustness of SFTS by addressing key assumptions and limitations, with a particular emphasis on where approaches could be shared between the four subfields.

Maladaptive plastic responses of flowering time to geothermal heating

Phenotypic plasticity might increase fitness if the conditions under which it evolved remain unaltered, but becomes maladaptive if the environment no longer provides reliable cues for subsequent conditions. In seasonal environments, timing of reproduction can respond plastically to spring temperature, maximizing the benefits of a long season while minimizing the exposure to unfavorable cold temperatures. However, if the relationship between early spring temperatures and later conditions changes, the optimal response might change. In geothermally heated ecosystems, the plastic response of flowering time to springtime soil temperature that has evolved in unheated areas is likely to be non-optimal, because soil temperatures are higher and decoupled from air temperatures in heated areas. We therefore expect natural selection to favor a lower plasticity and a delayed flowering in these areas. Using observational data along a natural geothermal warming gradient, we tested the hypothesis that selection on flowering time depends on soil temperature and favors later flowering on warmer soils in the perennial Cerastium fontanum. In both study years, plants growing in warmer soils began flowering earlier than plants growing in colder soils, suggesting that first flowering date (FFD) responds plastically to soil temperature. In one of the two study years, selection favored earlier flowering in colder soils but later flowering in warmer soils, suggesting that the current level of plastic advance of FFD on warmer soils may be maladaptive in some years. Our results illustrate the advantages of using natural experiments, such as geothermal ecosystems, to examine selection in environments that recently have undergone major changes. Such knowledge is essential to understand and predict both ecological and evolutionary responses to climate warming.

Spring temperature drives phenotypic selection on plasticity of flowering time

In seasonal environments, a high responsiveness of development to increasing temperatures in spring can infer benefits in terms of a longer growing season, but also costs in terms of an increased risk of facing unfavourable weather conditions. Still, we know little about how climatic conditions influence the optimal plastic response. Using 22 years of field observations for the perennial forest herb Lathyrus vernus, we assessed phenotypic selection on among-individual variation in reaction norms of flowering time to spring temperature, and examined if among-year variation in selection on plasticity was associated with spring temperature conditions. We found significant among-individual variation in mean flowering time and flowering time plasticity, and that plants that flowered earlier also had a more plastic flowering time. Selection favoured individuals with an earlier mean flowering time and a lower thermal plasticity of flowering time. Less plastic individuals were more strongly favoured in colder springs, indicating that spring temperature influenced optimal flowering time plasticity. Our results show how selection on plasticity can be linked to climatic conditions, and illustrate how we can understand and predict evolutionary responses of organisms to changing environmental conditions.

Antagonistic Effects of Assortative Mating on the Evolution of Phenotypic Plasticity along Environmental Gradients

AbstractPrevious theory has shown that assortative mating for plastic traits can maintain genetic divergence across environmental gradients despite high gene flow. Yet these models did not examine how assortative mating affects the evolution of plasticity. We here describe patterns of genetic variation across elevation for plasticity in a trait under assortative mating, using multiple-year observations of budburst date in a common garden of sessile oaks. Despite high gene flow, we found significant spatial genetic divergence for the intercept, but not for the slope, of reaction norms to temperature. We then used individual-based simulations, where both the slope and the intercept of the reaction norm evolve, to examine how assortative mating affects the evolution of plasticity, varying the intensity and distance of gene flow. Our model predicts the evolution of either suboptimal plasticity (reaction norms with a slope shallower than optimal) or hyperplasticity (slopes steeper than optimal) in the presence of assortative mating when optimal plasticity would evolve under random mating. Furthermore, a cogradient pattern of genetic divergence for the intercept of the reaction norm (where plastic and genetic effects are in the same direction) always evolves in simulations with assortative mating, consistent with our observations in the studied oak populations.

Interplay of Methodology and Conceptualization in Plant Abiotic Stress Signaling

Characterizing the mechanisms of plant sensitivity and reactivity to physicochemical cues related to abiotic stresses is of utmost importance for understanding plant-environment interactions, adaptations of the sessile lifestyle, and the evolutionary dynamics of plant species and populations. Moreover, plant communities are confronted with an environmental context of global change, involving climate changes, planetary pollutions of soils, waters and atmosphere, and additional anthropogenic changes. The mechanisms through which plants perceive abiotic stress stimuli and transduce stress perception into physiological responses constitute the primary line of interaction between the plant and the environment, and therefore between the plant and global changes. Understanding how plants perceive complex combinations of abiotic stress signals and transduce the resulting information into coordinated responses of abiotic stress tolerance is therefore essential for devising genetic, agricultural, and agroecological strategies that can ensure climate change resilience, global food security, and environmental protection. Discovery and characterization of sensing and signaling mechanisms of plant cells are usually carried out within the general framework of eukaryotic sensing and signal transduction. However, further progress depends on a close relationship between the conceptualization of sensing and signaling processes with adequate methodologies and techniques that encompass biochemical and biophysical approaches, cell biology, molecular biology, and genetics. The integration of subcellular and cellular analyses as well as the integration of in vitro and in vivo analyses are particularly important to evaluate the efficiency of sensing and signaling mechanisms in planta. Major progress has been made in the last 10-20 years with the caveat that cell-specific processes and in vivo processes still remain difficult to analyze and with the additional caveat that the range of plant models under study remains rather limited relatively to plant biodiversity and to the diversity of stress situations.

Integrating experiments to predict interactive cue effects on spring phenology with warming

Climate change has advanced plant phenology globally 4-6 d °C^-1 on average. Such shifts are some of the most reported and predictable biological impacts of rising temperatures. Yet as climate change has marched on, phenological shifts have appeared muted over recent decades - failing to match simple predictions of an advancing spring with continued warming. The main hypothesis for these changing trends is that interactions between spring phenological cues - long-documented in laboratory environments - are playing a greater role in natural environments due to climate change. Here, we argue that accurately linking shifts observed in long-term data to underlying phenological cues is slowed by biases in observational studies and limited integration of insights from laboratory studies. We synthesize seven decades of laboratory experiments to quantify how phenological cue-space has been studied and how treatments compare with shifts caused by climate change. Most studies focus on one cue, limiting our ability to make accurate predictions, but some well-studied forest species offer opportunities to advance forecasting. We outline how greater integration of controlled-environment studies with long-term data could drive a new generation of laboratory experiments, built on physiological insights, that would transform our fundamental understanding of phenology and improve predictions.

Directional selection and the evolution of breeding date in birds, revisited: Hard selection and the evolution of plasticity

The mismatch between when individuals breed and when we think they should breed has been a long‐standing problem in evolutionary ecology. Price et al. is a classic theory paper in this field and is mainly cited for its most obvious result: if individuals with high nutritional condition breed early, then the advantage of breeding early may be overestimated when information on nutritional condition is absent. Price at al.'s less obvious result is that individuals, on average, are expected to breed later than the optimum. Here, we provide an explanation of their non‐intuitive result in terms of hard selection, and go on to show that neither of their results are expected to hold if the relationship between breeding date and nutrition is allowed to evolve. By introducing the assumption that the advantage of breeding early is greater for individuals in high nutritional condition, we show that their most cited result can be salvaged. However, individuals, on average, are expected to breed earlier than the optimum, not later. More generally, we also show that the hard selection mechanisms that underpin these results have major implications for the evolution of plasticity: when environmental heterogeneity becomes too great, plasticity is selected against, prohibiting the evolution of generalists.

How phenological tracking shapes species and communities in non-stationary environments

Climate change alters the environments of all species. Predicting species responses requires understanding how species track environmental change, and how such tracking shapes communities. Growing empirical evidence suggests that how species track phenologically - how an organism shifts the timing of major biological events in response to the environment - is linked to species performance and community structure. Such research tantalizingly suggests a potential framework to predict the winners and losers of climate change, and the future communities we can expect. But developing this framework requires far greater efforts to ground empirical studies of phenological tracking in relevant ecological theory. Here we review the concept of phenological tracking in empirical studies and through the lens of coexistence theory to show why a community-level perspective is critical to accurate predictions with climate change. While much current theory for tracking ignores the importance of a multi-species context, basic community assembly theory predicts that competition will drive variation in tracking and trade-offs with other traits. We highlight how existing community assembly theory can help understand tracking in stationary and non-stationary systems. But major advances in predicting the species- and community-level consequences of climate change will require advances in theoretical and empirical studies. We outline a path forward built on greater efforts to integrate priority effects into modern coexistence theory, improved empirical estimates of multivariate environmental change, and clearly defined estimates of phenological tracking and its underlying environmental cues.

The genetic basis of adaptation in phenology in an introduced population of Black Cottonwood (Populus trichocarpa, Torr. & Gray)

BACKGROUND

Entering and exiting winter dormancy present important trade-offs between growth and survival at northern latitudes. Many forest trees display local adaptation across latitude in traits associated with these phenology transitions. Transfers of a species outside its native range introduce the species to novel combinations of environmental conditions potentially requiring different combinations of alleles to optimize growth and survival. In this study, we performed genome wide association analyses and a selection scan in a P. trichocarpa mapping population derived from crossings between clones collected across the native range and introduced into Sweden. GWAS analyses were performed using phenotypic data collected across two field seasons and in a controlled phytotron experiment.

RESULTS

We uncovered 584 putative candidate genes associated with spring and autumn phenology traits as well as with growth. Many regions harboring variation significantly associated with the initiation of leaf shed and leaf autumn coloring appeared to have been evolving under positive selection in the native environments of P. trichocarpa. A comparison between the candidate genes identified with results from earlier GWAS analyses performed in the native environment found a smaller overlap for spring phenology traits than for autumn phenology traits, aligning well with earlier observations that spring phenology transitions have a more complex genetic basis than autumn phenology transitions.

CONCLUSIONS

In a small and structured introduced population of P. trichocarpa, we find complex genetic architectures underlying all phenology and growth traits, and identify multiple putative candidate genes despite the limitations of the study population.

Does Phenological Plasticity Help or Hinder Range Shifts Under Climate Change?

Climate warming is predicted to shift species’ ranges as previously uninhabitable environments just beyond the leading range edges become suitable habitat and trailing range edges become increasingly unsuitable. Understanding which aspects of the environment and species traits mediate these range shifts is critical for understanding species’ possible redistributions under global change, yet we have a limited understanding of the ecological and evolutionary responses underlying population spread or extinction at species’ range edges. Within plant populations, shifts in flowering phenology have been one of the strongest and most consistent responses to climate change, and are likely to play an important role in mediating population dynamics within and beyond species’ ranges. However, the role of phenological shifts, and particularly phenological plasticity, in species’ range shifts remains relatively unstudied. Here, we synthesize literature on phenology, plasticity, and adaptation to suggest ways in which phenological responses to climate may vary across species’ ranges and review the empirical evidence for and against these hypotheses. We then outline how phenological plasticity could facilitate or hinder persistence and potential consequences of phenological plasticity in range expansions, including phenological cues, shifts in correlated traits, altered species interactions, and effects on gene flow. Finally, we suggest future avenues for research, such as characterizing reaction norms for phenology across a species’ range and in beyond-the-range transplant experiments. Given the prevalence and magnitude of phenological shifts, future work should carefully dissect its costs and benefits for population persistence, and incorporate phenological plasticity into models predicting species’ persistence and geographic range shifts under climate change.

Fluctuating optimum and temporally variable selection on breeding date in birds and mammals

Temporal variation in natural selection is predicted to strongly impact the evolution and demography of natural populations, with consequences for the rate of adaptation, evolution of plasticity, and extinction risk. Most of the theory underlying these predictions assumes a moving optimum phenotype, with predictions expressed in terms of the temporal variance and autocorrelation of this optimum. However, empirical studies seldom estimate patterns of fluctuations of an optimum phenotype, precluding further progress in connecting theory with observations. To bridge this gap, we assess the evidence for temporal variation in selection on breeding date by modeling a fitness function with a fluctuating optimum, across 39 populations of 21 wild animals, one of the largest compilations of long-term datasets with individual measurements of trait and fitness components. We find compelling evidence for fluctuations in the fitness function, causing temporal variation in the magnitude, but not the direction of selection. However, fluctuations of the optimum phenotype need not directly translate into variation in selection gradients, because their impact can be buffered by partial tracking of the optimum by the mean phenotype. Analyzing individuals that reproduce in consecutive years, we find that plastic changes track movements of the optimum phenotype across years, especially in bird species, reducing temporal variation in directional selection. This suggests that phenological plasticity has evolved to cope with fluctuations in the optimum, despite their currently modest contribution to variation in selection.

Strengthening the evidence base for temperature-mediated phenological asynchrony and its impacts

Climate warming has caused the seasonal timing of many components of ecological food chains to advance. In the context of trophic interactions, the match-mismatch hypothesis postulates that differential shifts can lead to phenological asynchrony with negative impacts for consumers. However, at present there has been no consistent analysis of the links between temperature change, phenological asynchrony and individual-to-population-level impacts across taxa, trophic levels and biomes at a global scale. Here, we propose five criteria that all need to be met to demonstrate that temperature-mediated trophic asynchrony poses a growing risk to consumers. We conduct a literature review of 109 papers studying 129 taxa, and find that all five criteria are assessed for only two taxa, with the majority of taxa only having one or two criteria assessed. Crucially, nearly every study was conducted in Europe or North America, and most studies were on terrestrial secondary consumers. We thus lack a robust evidence base from which to draw general conclusions about the risk that climate-mediated trophic asynchrony may pose to populations worldwide.

Differences in spatial versus temporal reaction norms for spring and autumn phenological events

To do the right thing at the right time, organisms need to glean cues from their environment. How they respond can then be described by reaction norms, i.e., by the relationship between the phenotype expressed (the phenology of an event) and the environment (the date when a given number of degree-days are achieved). We use information on 178 phenological events across the former Soviet Union. We found the timing of events to differ more between sites in spring and less in autumn. These patterns of local adaptation translate to a massive imprint on nature’s calendar: geographic variation in phenology is more pronounced in spring and less pronounced in autumn than if organisms were to respond equally everywhere.

For species to stay temporally tuned to their environment, they use cues such as the accumulation of degree-days. The relationships between the timing of a phenological event in a population and its environmental cue can be described by a population-level reaction norm. Variation in reaction norms along environmental gradients may either intensify the environmental effects on timing (cogradient variation) or attenuate the effects (countergradient variation). To resolve spatial and seasonal variation in species’ response, we use a unique dataset of 91 taxa and 178 phenological events observed across a network of 472 monitoring sites, spread across the nations of the former Soviet Union. We show that compared to local rates of advancement of phenological events with the advancement of temperature-related cues (i.e., variation within site over years), spatial variation in reaction norms tend to accentuate responses in spring (cogradient variation) and attenuate them in autumn (countergradient variation). As a result, among-population variation in the timing of events is greater in spring and less in autumn than if all populations followed the same reaction norm regardless of location. Despite such signs of local adaptation, overall phenotypic plasticity was not sufficient for phenological events to keep exact pace with their cues—the earlier the year, the more did the timing of the phenological event lag behind the timing of the cue. Overall, these patterns suggest that differences in the spatial versus temporal reaction norms will affect species’ response to climate change in opposite ways in spring and autumn.

Microgeographic adaptation and the effect of pollen flow on the adaptive potential of a temperate tree species

In species with long-distance dispersal capacities and inhabiting a large ecological niche, local selection and gene flow are expected to be major evolutionary forces affecting the genetic adaptation of natural populations. Yet, in species such as trees, evidence of microgeographic adaptation and the quantitative assessment of the impact of gene flow on adaptive genetic variation are still limited. Here, we used extensive genetic and phenotypic data from European beech seedlings collected along an elevation gradient, and grown in a common garden, to study the signature of selection on the divergence of eleven potentially adaptive traits, and to assess the role of gene flow in resupplying adaptive genetic variation. We found a significant signal of adaptive differentiation among plots separated by < 1 km, with selection acting on growth and phenological traits. Consistent with theoretical expectations, our results suggest that pollen dispersal contributes to increase genetic diversity for these locally differentiated traits. Our results thus highlight that local selection is an important evolutionary force in natural tree populations and suggest that management interventions to facilitate movement of gametes along short ecological gradients would boost genetic diversity of individual tree populations, and enhance their adaptive potential to rapidly changing environments.

Phenological responses in a sycamore-aphid-parasitoid system and consequences for aphid population dynamics: A 20 year case study

Species interactions have a spatiotemporal component driven by environmental cues, which if altered by climate change can drive shifts in community dynamics. There is insufficient understanding of the precise time windows during which inter-annual variation in weather drives phenological shifts and the consequences for mismatches between interacting species and resultant population dynamics-particularly for insects. We use a 20 year study on a tri-trophic system: sycamore Acer pseudoplatanus, two associated aphid species Drepanosiphum platanoidis and Periphyllus testudinaceus and their hymenopteran parasitoids. Using a sliding window approach, we assess climatic drivers of phenology in all three trophic levels. We quantify the magnitude of resultant trophic mismatches between aphids and their plant hosts and parasitoids, and then model the impacts of these mismatches, direct weather effects and density dependence on local-scale aphid population dynamics. Warmer temperatures in mid-March to late-April were associated with advanced sycamore budburst, parasitoid attack and (marginally) D. platanoidis emergence. The precise time window during which spring weather advances phenology varies considerably across each species. Crucially, warmer temperatures in late winter delayed the emergence of both aphid species. Seasonal variation in warming rates thus generates marked shifts in the relative timing of spring events across trophic levels and mismatches in the phenology of interacting species. Despite this, we found no evidence that aphid population growth rates were adversely impacted by the magnitude of mismatch with their host plants or parasitoids, or direct impacts of temperature and precipitation. Strong density dependence effects occurred in both aphid species and probably buffered populations, through density-dependent compensation, from adverse impacts of the marked inter-annual climatic variation that occurred during the study period. These findings explain the resilience of aphid populations to climate change and uncover a key mechanism, warmer winter temperatures delaying insect phenology, by which climate change drives asynchronous shifts between interacting species.

Where is the optimum? Predicting the variation of selection along climatic gradients and the adaptive value of plasticity. A case study on tree phenology

Many theoretical models predict when genetic evolution and phenotypic plasticity allow adaptation to changing environmental conditions. These models generally assume stabilizing selection around some optimal phenotype. We however often ignore how optimal phenotypes change with the environment, which limit our understanding of the adaptive value of phenotypic plasticity. Here, we propose an approach based on our knowledge of the causal relationships between climate, adaptive traits, and fitness to further these questions. This approach relies on a sensitivity analysis of the process‐based model phenofit, which mathematically formalizes these causal relationships, to predict fitness landscapes and optimal budburst dates along elevation gradients in three major European tree species. Variation in the overall shape of the fitness landscape and resulting directional selection gradients were found to be mainly driven by temperature variation. The optimal budburst date was delayed with elevation, while the range of dates allowing high fitness narrowed and the maximal fitness at the optimum decreased. We also found that the plasticity of the budburst date should allow tracking the spatial variation in the optimal date, but with variable mismatch depending on the species, ranging from negligible mismatch in fir, moderate in beech, to large in oak. Phenotypic plasticity would therefore be more adaptive in fir and beech than in oak. In all species, we predicted stronger directional selection for earlier budburst date at higher elevation. The weak selection on budburst date in fir should result in the evolution of negligible genetic divergence, while beech and oak would evolve counter‐gradient variation, where genetic and environmental effects are in opposite directions. Our study suggests that theoretical models should consider how whole fitness landscapes change with the environment. The approach introduced here has the potential to be developed for other traits and species to explore how populations will adapt to climate change.

Shifts in the temperature-sensitive periods for spring phenology in European beech and pedunculate oak clones across latitudes and over recent decades

Spring phenology of temperate trees has advanced worldwide in response to global warming. However, increasing temperatures may not necessarily lead to further phenological advance, especially in the warmer latitudes because of insufficient chilling and/or shorter day length. Determining the start of the forcing phase, that is, when buds are able to respond to warmer temperatures in spring, is therefore crucial to predict how phenology will change in the future. In this study, we used 4,056 leaf-out date observations during the period 1969-2017 for clones of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) planted in 63 sites covering a large latitudinal gradient (from Portugal ~41°N to Norway ~63°N) at the International Phenological Gardens in order to (a) evaluate how the sensitivity periods to forcing and chilling have changed with climate warming, and (b) test whether consistent patterns occur along biogeographical gradients, that is, from colder to warmer environments. Partial least squares regressions suggest that the length of the forcing period has been extended over the recent decades with climate warming in the colder latitudes but has been shortened in the warmer latitudes for both species, with a more pronounced shift for beech. We attribute the lengthening of the forcing period in the colder latitudes to earlier opportunities with temperatures that can promote bud development. In contrast, at warmer or oceanic climates, the beginning of the forcing period has been delayed, possibly due to insufficient chilling. However, in spite of a later beginning of the forcing period, spring phenology has continued to advance at these areas due to a faster satisfaction of heat requirements induced by climate warming. Overall, our results support that ongoing climate warming will have different effects on the spring phenology of forest trees across latitudes due to the interactions between chilling, forcing and photoperiod.

Phenological plasticity is a poor predictor of subalpine plant population performance following experimental climate change

Phenological shifts, changes in the seasonal timing of life cycle events, are among the best documented responses of species to climate change. However, the consequences of these phenological shifts for population dynamics remain unclear. Population growth could be enhanced if species that advance their phenology benefit from longer growing seasons and gain a pre-emptive advantage in resource competition. However, it might also be reduced if phenological advances increase exposure to stresses, such as herbivores and, in colder climates, harsh abiotic conditions early in the growing season. We exposed subalpine grasslands to ~ 3 K of warming by transplanting intact turfs from 2000 m to 1400 m elevation in the eastern Swiss Alps, with turfs transplanted within the 2000 m site acting as a control. In the first growing season after transplantation, we recorded species' flowering phenology at both elevations. We also measured species' cover change for three consecutive years as a measure of plant performance. We used models to estimate species' phenological plasticity (the response of flowering time to the change in climate) and analysed its relationship with cover changes following climate change. The phenological plasticity of the 18 species in our study varied widely but was unrelated to their changes in cover. Moreover, early- and late-flowering species did not differ in their cover response to warming, nor in the relationship between cover changes and phenological plasticity. These results were replicated in a similar transplant experiment within the same subalpine community, established one year earlier and using larger turfs. We discuss the various ecological processes that can be affected by phenological shifts, and argue why the population-level consequences of these shifts are likely to be species- and context-specific. Our results highlight the importance of testing assumptions about how warming-induced changes in phenotypic traits, like phenology, impact population dynamics.

Phenotypic plasticity of natural Populus trichocarpa populations in response to temporally environmental change in a common garden

BACKGROUND

Natural selection on fitness-related traits can be temporally heterogeneous among populations. As climate changes, understanding population-level responses is of scientific and practical importance. We examined 18 phenotypic traits associated with phenology, biomass, and ecophysiology in 403 individuals of natural Populus trichocarpa populations, growing in a common garden.

RESULTS

Compared with tree origin settings, propagules likely underwent drought exposures in the common garden due to significantly low rainfall during the years of measurement. All study traits showed population differentiation reflecting adaptive responses due to local genetic adaptation. Phenology and biomass traits were strongly under selection and showed plastic responses between years, co-varying with latitude. While phenological events (e.g., bud set and growth period) and biomass were under positive directional selection, post-bud set period, particularly from final bud set to the onset of leaf drop, was selected against. With one exception to water-use efficiency, ecophysiology traits were under negative directional selection. Moreover, extended phenological events jointly evolved with source niches under increased temperature and decreased rainfall exposures. High biomass coevolved with climatic niches of high temperature; low rainfall promoted high photosynthetic rates evolution.

CONCLUSIONS

This work underpins that P. trichocarpa is likely to experience increased fitness (height gain) by evolving toward extended bud set and growth period, abbreviated post-bud set period, and increased drought resistance, potentially constituting a powerful mechanism for long-lived tree species in surviving unpredictably environmental extremes (e.g., drought).

On the evolution of carry-over effects

The environment experienced early in life often affects the traits that are developed after an individual has transitioned into new life stages and environments. Because the phenotypes induced by earlier environments are then screened by later ones, these 'carry-over effects' influence fitness outcomes across the entire life cycle. While the last two decades have witnessed an explosion of studies documenting the occurrence of carry-over effects, little attention has been given to how they adapt and diversify. To aid future research in this area, we present a framework for the evolution of carry-over effects. Carry-over effects can evolve in two ways. First, the expression of traits later in life may become more or less dependent on the developmental processes of earlier stages (e.g., 'adaptive decoupling'). Genetic correlations between life stages then either strengthen or weaken. Alternatively, those influential developmental processes that begin early in life may become more or less sensitive to that earlier environment. Here, plasticity changes in all the traits that share those developmental pathways across the whole life cycle. Adaptive evolution of a carry-over effect is governed by selection on the induced phenotypes in the later stage, and also by selection on any developmentally linked traits in the earlier life stage. When these selective pressures conflict, the evolution of the carry-over effect will be biased towards maximizing performance in the life stage with stronger selection. Because life stages often contribute unequally to total fitness, the strength of selection in any one stage depends on: (a) the relationship between the traits and the stage-specific fitness components (e.g., juvenile survival, adult mating success), and (b) the reproductive value of the life stage. Considering the evolution of carry-over effects reveals several intriguing features of the evolution of life histories and phenotypic plasticity more generally. For instance, carry-over effects that manifest as maladaptive plasticity in one life stage may represent an adaptive strategy for maximizing fitness in stages with stronger selection. Additionally, adaptation to novel environments encountered early in the life cycle may be faster in the presence of carry-over effects that influence sexually selected traits.

The environmental predictors of spatio-temporal variation in the breeding phenology of a passerine bird

Establishing the cues or constraints that influence avian timing of breeding is the key to accurate prediction of future phenology. This study aims to identify the aspects of the environment that predict the timing of two measures of breeding phenology (nest initiation and egg laying date) in an insectivorous woodland passerine, the blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus). We analyse data collected from a 220 km, 40-site transect over 3 years and consider spring temperatures, tree leafing phenology, invertebrate availability and photoperiod as predictors of breeding phenology. We find that mean night-time temperature in early spring is the strongest predictor of both nest initiation and lay date and suggest this finding is most consistent with temperature acting as a constraint on breeding activity. Birch budburst phenology significantly predicts lay date additionally to temperature, either as a direct cue or indirectly via a correlated variable. We use cross-validation to show that our model accurately predicts lay date in two further years and find that similar variables predict lay date well across the UK national nest record scheme. This work refines our understanding of the principal factors influencing the timing of tit reproductive phenology and suggests that temperature may have both a direct and indirect effect.

Spring- and fall-flowering species show diverging phenological responses to climate in the Southeast USA

Plant phenological shifts (e.g., earlier flowering dates) are known consequences of climate change that may alter ecosystem functioning, productivity, and ecological interactions across trophic levels. Temperate, subalpine, and alpine regions have largely experienced advancement of spring phenology with climate warming, but the effects of climate change in warm, humid regions and on autumn phenology are less well understood. In this study, nearly 10,000 digitized herbarium specimen records were used to examine the phenological sensitivities of fall- and spring-flowering asteraceous plants to temperature and precipitation in the US Southeastern Coastal Plain. Climate data reveal warming trends in this already warm climate, and spring- and fall-flowering species responded differently to this change. Spring-flowering species flowered earlier at a rate of 1.8-2.3 days per 1 °C increase in spring temperature, showing remarkable congruence with studies of northern temperate species. Fall-flowering species flowered slightly earlier with warmer spring temperatures, but flowering was significantly later with warmer summer temperatures at a rate of 0.8-1.2 days per 1 °C. Spring-flowering species exhibited slightly later flowering times with increased spring precipitation. Fall phenology was less clearly influenced by precipitation. These results suggest that even warm, humid regions may experience phenological shifts and thus be susceptible to potentially detrimental effects such as plant-pollinator asynchrony.

The evolution of phenotypic plasticity when environments fluctuate in time and space

Most theoretical studies have explored the evolution of plasticity when the environment, and therefore the optimal trait value, varies in time or space. When the environment varies in time and space, we show that genetic adaptation to Markovian temporal fluctuations depends on the between-generation autocorrelation in the environment in exactly the same way that genetic adaptation to spatial fluctuations depends on the probability of philopatry. This is because both measure the correlation in parent-offspring environments and therefore the effectiveness of a genetic response to selection. If the capacity to genetically respond to selection is stronger in one dimension (e.g., space), then plasticity mainly evolves in response to fluctuations in the other dimension (e.g., time). If the relationships between the environments of development and selection are the same in time and space, the evolved plastic response to temporal fluctuations is useful in a spatial context and genetic differentiation in space is reduced. However, if the relationships between the environments of development and selection are different, the optimal level of plasticity is different in the two dimensions. In this case, the plastic response that evolves to cope with temporal fluctuations may actually be maladaptive in space, resulting in the evolution of hyperplasticity or negative plasticity. These effects can be mitigated by spatial genetic differentiation that acts in opposition to plasticity resulting in counter-gradient variation. These results highlight the difficulty of making space-for-time substitutions in empirical work but identify the key parameters that need to be measured in order to test whether space-for-time substitutions are likely to be valid.

Pivotal roles of environmental sensing and signaling mechanisms in plant responses to climate change

Climate change reshapes the physiology and development of organisms through phenotypic plasticity, epigenetic modifications, and genetic adaptation. Under evolutionary pressures of the sessile lifestyle, plants possess efficient systems of phenotypic plasticity and acclimation to environmental conditions. Molecular analysis, especially through omics approaches, of these primary lines of environmental adjustment in the context of climate change has revealed the underlying biochemical and physiological mechanisms, thus characterizing the links between phenotypic plasticity and climate change responses. The efficiency of adaptive plasticity under climate change indeed depends on the realization of such biochemical and physiological mechanisms, but the importance of sensing and signaling mechanisms that can integrate perception of environmental cues and transduction into physiological responses is often overlooked. Recent progress opens the possibility of considering plant phenotypic plasticity and responses to climate change through the perspective of environmental sensing and signaling. This review aims to analyze present knowledge on plant sensing and signaling mechanisms and discuss how their structural and functional characteristics lead to resilience or hypersensitivity under conditions of climate change. Plant cells are endowed with arrays of environmental and stress sensors and with internal signals that act as molecular integrators of the multiple constraints of climate change, thus giving rise to potential mechanisms of climate change sensing. Moreover, mechanisms of stress-related information propagation lead to stress memory and acquired stress tolerance that could withstand different scenarios of modifications of stress frequency and intensity. However, optimal functioning of existing sensors, optimal integration of additive constraints and signals, or memory processes can be hampered by conflicting interferences between novel combinations and novel changes in intensity and duration of climate change-related factors. Analysis of these contrasted situations emphasizes the need for future research on the diversity and robustness of plant signaling mechanisms under climate change conditions.

Tritrophic phenological match-mismatch in space and time

Increasing temperatures associated with climate change may generate phenological mismatches that disrupt previously synchronous trophic interactions. Most work on mismatch has focused on temporal trends, whereas spatial variation in the degree of trophic synchrony has largely been neglected, even though the degree to which mismatch varies in space has implications for meso-scale population dynamics and evolution. Here we quantify latitudinal trends in phenological mismatch, using phenological data on an oak-caterpillar-bird system from across the UK. Increasing latitude delays phenology of all species, but more so for oak, resulting in a shorter interval between leaf emergence and peak caterpillar biomass at northern locations. Asynchrony found between peak caterpillar biomass and peak nestling demand of blue tits, great tits and pied flycatchers increases in earlier (warm) springs. There is no evidence of spatial variation in the timing of peak nestling demand relative to peak caterpillar biomass for any species. Phenological mismatch alone is thus unlikely to explain spatial variation in population trends. Given projections of continued spring warming, we predict that temperate forest birds will become increasingly mismatched with peak caterpillar timing. Latitudinal invariance in the direction of mismatch may act as a double-edged sword that presents no opportunities for spatial buffering from the effects of mismatch on population size, but generates spatially consistent directional selection on timing, which could facilitate rapid evolutionary change.

Phenological synchrony between a butterfly and its host plants: Experimental test of effects of spring temperature

Climate-driven changes in the relative phenologies of interacting species may potentially alter the outcome of species interactions. Phenotypic plasticity is expected to be important for short-term response to new climate conditions, and differences between species in plasticity are likely to influence their temporal overlap and interaction patterns. As reaction norms of interacting species may be locally adapted, any such climate-induced change in interaction patterns may vary among localities. However, consequences of spatial variation in plastic responses for species interactions are understudied. We experimentally explored how temperature affected synchrony between spring emergence of a butterfly, Anthocharis cardamines, and onset of flowering of five of its host plant species across a latitudinal gradient. We also studied potential effects on synchrony if climate-driven northward expansions would be faster in the butterflies than in host plants. Lastly, to assess how changes in synchrony influence host use we carried out an experiment to examine the importance of the developmental stage of plant reproductive structures for butterfly oviposition preference. In southern locations, the butterflies were well-synchronized with the majority of their local host plant species across temperatures, suggesting that thermal plasticity in butterfly development matches oviposition to host plant development and that thermal reaction norms of insects and plants result in similar advancement of spring phenology in response to warming. In the most northern region, however, relative phenology between the butterfly and two of its host plant species changed with increased temperature. We also show that the developmental stage of plants was important for egg-laying, and conclude that temperature-induced changes in synchrony in the northernmost region are likely to lead to shifts in host use in A. cardamines if spring temperatures become warmer. Northern expansion of butterfly populations might possibly have a positive effect on keeping up with host plant phenology with more northern host plant populations. Considering that the majority of insect herbivores exploit multiple plant species differing in their phenological response to spring temperatures, temperature-induced changes in synchrony might lead to shifts in host use and changes in species interactions in many temperate communities.

Evolutionary dynamics of the leaf phenological cycle in an oak metapopulation along an elevation gradient

It has been predicted that environmental changes will radically alter the selective pressures on phenological traits. Long-lived species, such as trees, will be particularly affected, as they may need to undergo major adaptive change over only one or a few generations. The traits describing the annual life cycle of trees are generally highly evolvable, but nothing is known about the strength of their genetic correlations. Tight correlations can impose strong evolutionary constraints, potentially hampering the adaptation of multivariate phenological phenotypes. In this study, we investigated the evolutionary, genetic and environmental components of the timing of leaf unfolding and senescence within an oak metapopulation along an elevation gradient. Population divergence, estimated from in situ and common-garden data, was compared to expectations under neutral evolution, based on microsatellite markers. This approach made it possible (1) to evaluate the influence of genetic correlation on multivariate local adaptation to elevation and (2) to identify traits probably exposed to past selective pressures due to the colder climate at high elevation. The genetic correlation was positive but very weak, indicating that genetic constraints did not shape the local adaptation pattern for leaf phenology. Both spring and fall (leaf unfolding and senescence, respectively) phenology timings were involved in local adaptation, but leaf unfolding was probably the trait most exposed to climate change-induced selection. Our data indicated that genetic variation makes a much smaller contribution to adaptation than the considerable plastic variation displayed by a tree during its lifetime. The evolutionary potential of leaf phenology is, therefore, probably not the most critical aspect for short-term population survival in a changing climate.