Consistent patterns of common species across tropical tree communities

Trees structure the Earth's most biodiverse ecosystem, tropical forests. The vast number of tree species presents a formidable challenge to understanding these forests, including their response to environmental change, as very little is known about most tropical tree species. A focus on the common species may circumvent this challenge. Here we investigate abundance patterns of common tree species using inventory data on 1,003,805 trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm across 1,568 locations1-6 in closed-canopy, structurally intact old-growth tropical forests in Africa, Amazonia and Southeast Asia. We estimate that 2.2%, 2.2% and 2.3% of species comprise 50% of the tropical trees in these regions, respectively. Extrapolating across all closed-canopy tropical forests, we estimate that just 1,053 species comprise half of Earth's 800 billion tropical trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm. Despite differing biogeographic, climatic and anthropogenic histories7, we find notably consistent patterns of common species and species abundance distributions across the continents. This suggests that fundamental mechanisms of tree community assembly may apply to all tropical forests. Resampling analyses show that the most common species are likely to belong to a manageable list of known species, enabling targeted efforts to understand their ecology. Although they do not detract from the importance of rare species, our results open new opportunities to understand the world's most diverse forests, including modelling their response to environmental change, by focusing on the common species that constitute the majority of their trees.

A horizon scan of global biological conservation issues for 2024

We present the results of our 15th horizon scan of novel issues that could influence biological conservation in the future. From an initial list of 96 issues, our international panel of scientists and practitioners identified 15 that we consider important for societies worldwide to track and potentially respond to. Issues are novel within conservation or represent a substantial positive or negative step-change with global or regional extents. For example, new sources of hydrogen fuel and changes in deep-sea currents may have profound impacts on marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Technological advances that may be positive include benchtop DNA printers and the industrialisation of approaches that can create high-protein food from air, potentially reducing the pressure on land for food production.

Ten best practices for effective phenological research

The number and diversity of phenological studies has increased rapidly in recent years. Innovative experiments, field studies, citizen science projects, and analyses of newly available historical data are contributing insights that advance our understanding of ecological and evolutionary responses to the environment, particularly climate change. However, many phenological data sets have peculiarities that are not immediately obvious and can lead to mistakes in analyses and interpretation of results. This paper aims to help researchers, especially those new to the field of phenology, understand challenges and practices that are crucial for effective studies. For example, researchers may fail to account for sampling biases in phenological data, struggle to choose or design a volunteer data collection strategy that adequately fits their project's needs, or combine data sets in inappropriate ways. We describe ten best practices for designing studies of plant and animal phenology, evaluating data quality, and analyzing data. Practices include accounting for common biases in data, using effective citizen or community science methods, and employing appropriate data when investigating phenological mismatches. We present these best practices to help researchers entering the field take full advantage of the wealth of available data and approaches to advance our understanding of phenology and its implications for ecology.

Grass flowering times determined using herbarium specimens for modeling grass pollen under a warming climate

The grass family is responsible for most of people's pollen allergies, and the severity of pollen-based asthma and allergies is expected to increase with global climate change. Identifying grass species through standard pollen monitoring techniques have limitations due to challenges in species-specific pollen identification. As a result, these monitoring methods end up grouping all Poaceae species together, even though there are hundreds of grass species in Europe with flowering times that may vary drastically among species. Given this lack of specificity, it is hard to know which grass species are responsible for causing allergies over the pollen season, and how different species are affected by climate change. To address these issues, we obtained phenological data from thousands of herbarium specimens collected across Denmark spanning 190 years and used pollen monitoring data collected over the last four decades to determine the response of flowering time to climate change for 12 allergenic grass species, and identified which species are likely the biggest contributors to grass pollen loads throughout the pollen season. We find that pollen season duration is lasting longer and starting earlier, and the maximum pollen loads are occurring earlier in response to warmer temperatures. Herbarium specimens provide taxonomic resolution and reveal that many grass species are flowering earlier in response to warmer spring temperatures. Seven out of the 12 species studied in Denmark are identified as major contributors to airborne pollen based on their flowering times, relative abundance and overlap with the time of the year when maximum pollen loads are detected. Four species (Poa pratensis, Dactylis glomerata, Festuca rubra, Holcus lanatus) significantly shifted their flowering time in response to warming temperatures and are flagged as of particular concern to allergy sufferers. Using data derived from natural history collections can contribute to the advancement of pollen forecasting for asthma and allergy patients under both current conditions and amidst future global changes.

Disorder or a new order: How climate change affects phenological variability

Advancing spring phenology is a well documented consequence of anthropogenic climate change, but it is not well understood how climate change will affect the variability of phenology year to year. Species' phenological timings reflect the adaptation to a broad suite of abiotic needs (e.g., thermal energy) and biotic interactions (e.g., predation and pollination), and changes in patterns of variability may disrupt those adaptations and interactions. Here, we present a geographically and taxonomically broad analysis of phenological shifts, temperature sensitivity, and changes in interannual variability encompassing nearly 10,000 long-term phenology time series representing more than 1000 species across much of the Northern Hemisphere. We show that the timings of leaf-out, flowering, insect first-occurrence, and bird arrival were the most sensitive to temperature variation and have advanced at the fastest pace for early-season species in colder and less seasonal regions. We did not find evidence for changing variability in warmer years in any phenophase groups, although leaf-out and flower phenology have become moderately but significantly less variable over time. Our findings suggest that climate change has not to this point fundamentally altered the patterns of interannual phenological variability.

Conservation ethics in the time of the pandemic: Does increasing remote access advance social justice?

The COVID-19 pandemic is stimulating improvements in remote access and use of technology in conservation-related programs and research. In many cases, organizations have intended for remote engagement to benefit groups that have been marginalized in the sciences. But are they? It is important to consider how remote access affects social justice in conservation biology-i.e., the principle that all people should be equally respected and valued in conservation organizations, programs, projects, and practices. To support such consideration, we describe a typology of justice-oriented principles that can be used to examine social justice in a range of conservation activities. We apply this typology to three conservation areas: (1) remote access to US national park educational programs and data; (2) digitization of natural history specimens and their use in conservation research; and (3) remote engagement in conservation-oriented citizen science. We then address the questions: Which justice-oriented principles are salient in which conservation contexts or activities? How can those principles be best realized in those contexts or activities? In each of the three areas we examined, remote access increased participation, but access and benefits were not equally distributed and unanticipated consequences have not been adequately addressed. We identify steps that can and are being taken to advance social justice in conservation, such as assessing programs to determine if they are achieving their stated social justice-oriented aims and revising initiatives as needed. The framework that we present could be used to assess the social justice dimensions of many conservation programs, institutions, practices, and policies.

Functional traits influence patterns in vegetative and reproductive plant phenology - a multi-botanical garden study

Phenology has emerged as key indicator of the biological impacts of climate change, yet the role of functional traits constraining variation in herbaceous species' phenology has received little attention. Botanical gardens are ideal places in which to investigate large numbers of species growing under common climate conditions. We ask whether interspecific variation in plant phenology is influenced by differences in functional traits. We recorded onset, end, duration and intensity of initial growth, leafing out, leaf senescence, flowering and fruiting for 212 species across five botanical gardens in Germany. We measured functional traits, including plant height, absolute and specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, leaf carbon and nitrogen content and seed mass and accounted for species' relatedness. Closely related species showed greater similarities in timing of phenological events than expected by chance, but species' traits had a high degree of explanatory power, pointing to paramount importance of species' life-history strategies. Taller plants showed later timing of initial growth, and flowered, fruited and underwent leaf senescence later. Large-leaved species had shorter flowering and fruiting durations. Taller, large-leaved species differ in their phenology and are more competitive than smaller, small-leaved species. We assume climate warming will change plant communities' competitive hierarchies with consequences for biodiversity.

Was Henry David Thoreau a Good Naturalist? An Approach for Assessing Data from Historical Natural History Records

Ecologists are increasingly combining historical observations made by naturalists with modern observations to detect the ecological effects of climate change. This use of historical observations raises the following question: How do we know that historical data are appropriate to use to answer current ecological questions? In the present article, we address this question for environmental philosopher Henry David Thoreau, author of Walden. Should we trust his observations? We qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate Thoreau's observations using a three-step framework: We assess the rigor, accuracy, and utility of his observations to investigate changes in plants and animals over time. We conclude that Thoreau was an accurate observer of nature and a reliable scientist. More importantly, we describe how this simple three-step approach could be used to assess the accuracy of other scientists and naturalists.

A comparison of herbarium and citizen science phenology datasets for detecting response of flowering time to climate change in Denmark

Phenology has emerged as a key metric to measure how species respond to changes in climate. Innovative means have been developed to extend the temporal and spatial range of phenological data by obtaining data from herbarium specimens, citizen science programs, and biodiversity data repositories. These different data types have seldom been compared for their effectiveness in detecting environmental impacts on phenology. To address this, we compare three separate phenology datasets from Denmark: (i) herbarium specimen data spanning 145 years, (ii) data collected from a citizen science phenology program over a single year observing first flowering, and (iii) data derived from incidental biodiversity observations in iNaturalist over a single year. Each dataset includes flowering day of year observed for three common spring-flowering plant species: Allium ursinum (ramsons), Aesculus hippocastanum (horse chestnut), and Sambucus nigra (black elderberry). The incidental iNaturalist dataset provided the most extensive geographic coverage across Denmark and the largest sample size and recorded peak flowering in a way comparable to herbarium specimens. The directed citizen science dataset recorded much earlier flowering dates because the program objective was to report the first flowering, and so was less compared to the other two datasets. Herbarium data demonstrated the strongest effect of spring temperature on flowering in Denmark, possibly because it was the only dataset measuring temporal variation in phenology, while the other datasets measured spatial variation. Herbarium data predicted the mean flowering day of year recorded in our iNaturalist dataset for all three species. Combining herbarium data with iNaturalist data provides an even more effective method for detecting climatic effects on phenology. Phenology observations from directed and incidental citizen science initiatives will increase in value for climate change research in the coming years with the addition of data capturing the inter-annual variation in phenology.

Long-term ecological research and the COVID-19 anthropause: A window to understanding social-ecological disturbance

The period of disrupted human activity caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, coined the "anthropause," altered the nature of interactions between humans and ecosystems. It is uncertain how the anthropause has changed ecosystem states, functions, and feedback to human systems through shifts in ecosystem services. Here, we used an existing disturbance framework to propose new investigation pathways for coordinated studies of distributed, long-term social-ecological research to capture effects of the anthropause. Although it is still too early to comprehensively evaluate effects due to pandemic-related delays in data availability and ecological response lags, we detail three case studies that show how long-term data can be used to document and interpret changes in air and water quality and wildlife populations and behavior coinciding with the anthropause. These early findings may guide interpretations of effects of the anthropause as it interacts with other ongoing environmental changes in the future, particularly highlighting the importance of long-term data in separating disturbance impacts from natural variation and long-term trends. Effects of this global disturbance have local to global effects on ecosystems with feedback to social systems that may be detectable at spatial scales captured by nationally to globally distributed research networks.

Global COVID-19 lockdown highlights humans as both threats and custodians of the environment

The global lockdown to mitigate COVID-19 pandemic health risks has altered human interactions with nature. Here, we report immediate impacts of changes in human activities on wildlife and environmental threats during the early lockdown months of 2020, based on 877 qualitative reports and 332 quantitative assessments from 89 different studies. Hundreds of reports of unusual species observations from around the world suggest that animals quickly responded to the reductions in human presence. However, negative effects of lockdown on conservation also emerged, as confinement resulted in some park officials being unable to perform conservation, restoration and enforcement tasks, resulting in local increases in illegal activities such as hunting. Overall, there is a complex mixture of positive and negative effects of the pandemic lockdown on nature, all of which have the potential to lead to cascading responses which in turn impact wildlife and nature conservation. While the net effect of the lockdown will need to be assessed over years as data becomes available and persistent effects emerge, immediate responses were detected across the world. Thus, initial qualitative and quantitative data arising from this serendipitous global quasi-experimental perturbation highlights the dual role that humans play in threatening and protecting species and ecosystems. Pathways to favorably tilt this delicate balance include reducing impacts and increasing conservation effectiveness.

Macrophenology: insights into the broad-scale patterns, drivers, and consequences of phenology

Plant phenology research has surged in recent decades, in part due to interest in phenological sensitivity to climate change and the vital role phenology plays in ecology. Many local-scale studies have generated important findings regarding the physiology, responses, and risks associated with shifts in plant phenology. By comparison, our understanding of regional- and global-scale phenology has been largely limited to remote sensing of green-up without the ability to differentiate among plant species. However, a new generation of analytical tools and data sources-including enhanced remote sensing products, digitized herbarium specimen data, and public participation in science-now permits investigating patterns and drivers of phenology across extensive taxonomic, temporal, and spatial scales, in an emerging field that we call macrophenology. Recent studies have highlighted how phenology affects dynamics at broad scales, including species interactions and ranges, carbon fluxes, and climate. At the cusp of this developing field of study, we review the theoretical and practical advances in four primary areas of plant macrophenology: (1) global patterns and shifts in plant phenology, (2) within-species changes in phenology as they mediate species' range limits and invasions at the regional scale, (3) broad-scale variation in phenology among species leading to ecological mismatches, and (4) interactions between phenology and global ecosystem processes. To stimulate future research, we describe opportunities for macrophenology to address grand challenges in each of these research areas, as well as recently available data sources that enhance and enable macrophenology research.

Siberian plants shift their phenology in response to climate change

Siberia has undergone dramatic climatic changes due to global warming in recent decades. Yet, the ecological responses to these climatic changes are still poorly understood due to a lack of data. Here, we use a unique data set from the Russian 'Chronicles of Nature' network to analyse the long-term (1976-2018) phenological shifts in leaf out, flowering, fruiting and senescence of 67 common Siberian plant species. We find that Siberian boreal forest plants advanced their early season (leaf out and flowering) and mid-season (fruiting) phenology by -2.2, -0.7 and -1.6 days/decade, and delayed the onset of senescence by 1.6 days/decade during this period. These mean values, however, are subject to substantial intraspecific variability, which is partly explained by the plants' growth forms. Trees and shrubs advanced leaf out and flowering (-3.1 and -3.3. days/decade) faster than herbs (-1 day/decade), presumably due to the more direct exposure of leaf and flower buds to ambient air for the woody vegetation. For senescence, we detected a reverse pattern: stronger delays in herbs (2.1 days/decade) than in woody plants (1.0-1.2 days/decade), presumably due to the stronger effects of autumn frosts on the leaves of herbs. Interestingly, the timing of fruiting in all four growth forms advanced at similar paces, from 1.4 days/decade in shrubs to 1.7 days/decade in trees and herbs. Our findings point to a strong, yet heterogeneous, response of Siberian plant phenology to recent global warming. Furthermore, the results highlight that species- and growth form-specific differences among study species could be used to identify plants particularly at risk of decline due to their low adaptive capacity or a loss of synchronization with important interaction partners.

The growing and vital role of botanical gardens in climate change research

Botanical gardens make unique contributions to climate change research, conservation, and public engagement. They host unique resources, including diverse collections of plant species growing in natural conditions, historical records, and expert staff, and attract large numbers of visitors and volunteers. Networks of botanical gardens spanning biomes and continents can expand the value of these resources. Over the past decade, research at botanical gardens has advanced our understanding of climate change impacts on plant phenology, physiology, anatomy, and conservation. For example, researchers have utilized botanical garden networks to assess anatomical and functional traits associated with phenological responses to climate change. New methods have enhanced the pace and impact of this research, including phylogenetic and comparative methods, and online databases of herbarium specimens and photographs that allow studies to expand geographically, temporally, and taxonomically in scope. Botanical gardens have grown their community and citizen science programs, informing the public about climate change and monitoring plants more intensively than is possible with garden staff alone. Despite these advances, botanical gardens are still underutilized in climate change research. To address this, we review recent progress and describe promising future directions for research and public engagement at botanical gardens.

Comparing fruiting phenology across two historical datasets: Thoreau's observations and herbarium specimens

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Fruiting remains under-represented in long-term phenology records, relative to leaf and flower phenology. Herbarium specimens and historical field notes can fill this gap, but selecting and synthesizing these records for modern-day comparison requires an understanding of whether different historical data sources contain similar information, and whether similar, but not equivalent, fruiting metrics are comparable with one another.

METHODS

For 67 fleshy-fruited plant species, we compared observations of fruiting phenology made by Henry David Thoreau in Concord, Massachusetts (1850s), with phenology data gathered from herbarium specimens collected across New England (mid-1800s to 2000s). To identify whether fruiting times and the order of fruiting among species are similar between datasets, we compared dates of first, peak and last observed fruiting (recorded by Thoreau), and earliest, mean and latest specimen (collected from herbarium records), as well as fruiting durations.

KEY RESULTS

On average, earliest herbarium specimen dates were earlier than first fruiting dates observed by Thoreau; mean specimen dates were similar to Thoreau's peak fruiting dates; latest specimen dates were later than Thoreau's last fruiting dates; and durations of fruiting captured by herbarium specimens were longer than durations of fruiting observed by Thoreau. All metrics of fruiting phenology except duration were significantly, positively correlated within (r: 0.69-0.88) and between (r: 0.59-0.85) datasets.

CONCLUSIONS

Strong correlations in fruiting phenology between Thoreau's observations and data from herbaria suggest that field and herbarium methods capture similar broad-scale phenological information, including relative fruiting times among plant species in New England. Differences in the timing of first, last and duration of fruiting suggest that historical datasets collected with different methods, scales and metrics may not be comparable when exact timing is important. Researchers should strongly consider matching methodology when selecting historical records of fruiting phenology for present-day comparisons.

COVID-19 pandemic impacts on conservation research, management, and public engagement in US national parks

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the timing and substance of conservation research, management, and public engagement in protected areas around the world. This disruption is evident in US national parks, which play a key role in protecting natural and cultural resources and providing outdoor experiences for the public. Collectively, US national parks protect 34 million ha, host more than 300 million visits annually, and serve as one of the world's largest informal education organizations. The pandemic has altered park conditions and operations in a variety of ways. Shifts in operational conditions related to safety issues, reduced staffing, and decreased park revenues have forced managers to make difficult trade-offs among competing priorities. Long-term research and monitoring of the health of ecosystems and wildlife populations have been interrupted. Time-sensitive management practices, such as control of invasive plants and restoration of degraded habitat, have been delayed. And public engagement has largely shifted from in-person experiences to virtual engagement through social media and other online interactions. These changes pose challenges for accomplishing important science, management, and public engagement goals, but they also create opportunities for developing more flexible monitoring programs and inclusive methods of public engagement. The COVID-19 pandemic reinforces the need for strategic science, management planning, flexible operations, and online public engagement to help managers address rapid and unpredictable challenges.

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on noise pollution in three protected areas in metropolitan Boston (USA)

Noise pollution can reduce the ability of urban protected areas to provide a refuge for people and habitat for wildlife. Amidst an unprecedented global pandemic, it is unknown if the changes in human activity have significantly impacted noise pollution in metropolitan parks. We tested the hypothesis that reduced human activity associated with the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns would lead to reduced sound levels in protected areas compared with non-pandemic times. We measured sound levels in three urban protected areas in metropolitan Boston, MA (USA) at three time periods: in the fall and summer before the pandemic, immediately after the government-imposed lockdown in March 2020 when the trees were leafless, and during the beginning of reopening in early June 2020 when the trees had leaves. At all time periods, sound levels were highest near major roads and demonstrated a logarithmic decrease further from roads. At the two protected areas closest to the city center, sound levels averaged 1-3 dB lower during the time of the pandemic lockdown. In contrast, at the third protected area, which is transected by a major highway, sound levels were 4-6 dB higher during the time of the pandemic, likely because reduced traffic allowed vehicles to travel faster and create more noise. This study demonstrates that altered human levels of activity, in this case associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, can have major, and in some cases unexpected, effects on the levels of noise pollution in protected areas.

New social trails made during the pandemic increase fragmentation of an urban protected area

Urban protected areas are an important resource to people and wildlife, providing many ecosystem services. During the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown during March-June 2020, there was a major increase in the number of hikers and bicyclists in urban protected areas, including the Webster Woods in Newton, Massachusetts (USA), an 82.5-ha protected area. The Webster Woods is one of the largest protected areas near the center of Boston and is widely used in conservation textbooks as an example of the effects of habitat fragmentation on the amount of undisturbed habitat. Prior to the pandemic, the Webster Woods had been extensively fragmented by paved roads, dirt roads, and trails, with little interior habitat remaining. During the first four months of the pandemic, hikers and bicyclists made 4.9 km of new social (or informal) trails, an increase of 36%. This recent fragmentation represents a dramatic increase in the level of human impact on the area, reducing the amount of interior habitat from 3.2 to 2.1 ha. Levels of human activity returned to pre-pandemic levels in autumn 2020 and city officials have started closing access to some of the new trails, allowing vegetation to regrow. It is possible that similar increases in social trails and associated fragmentation have occurred in other protected areas (especially those in urban areas) around the world due to the pandemic, and these disturbances should be evaluated for their effects on plant and animal populations.

Citizen scientists and university students monitor noise pollution in cities and protected areas with smartphones

Noise pollution can cause increased stress, cognitive impairment and illness in humans and decreased fitness and altered behavior in wildlife. Maps of noise pollution are used to visualize the distribution of noise across a landscape. These maps are typically created by taking a relatively small number of sound measurements or simulated on the basis of theoretical models. However, smartphones with inexpensive sound measuring apps can be used to monitor noise and create dense maps of real-world noise measurements. Public concern with noise can make monitoring noise pollution with smartphones an engaging and educational citizen science activity. We demonstrate a method utilizing single-day citizen science noise mapping events and a university lab to collect noise data in urban environments and protected areas. Using this approach, we collected hundreds of noise measurements with participants that we used to create noise maps. We found this method was successful in engaging volunteers and students and producing usable noise data. The described methodology has potential applications for biological research, citizen science engagement, and teaching.

COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdown as a "Global Human Confinement Experiment" to investigate biodiversity conservation

Efforts to curtail the spread of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) have led to the unprecedented concurrent confinement of nearly two-thirds of the global population. The large human lockdown and its eventual relaxation can be viewed as a Global Human Confinement Experiment. This experiment is a unique opportunity to identify positive and negative effects of human presence and mobility on a range of natural systems, including wildlife, and protected areas, and to study processes regulating biodiversity and ecosystems. We encourage ecologists, environmental scientists, and resource managers to contribute their observations to efforts aiming to build comprehensive global understanding based on multiple data streams, including anecdotal observations, systematic assessments and quantitative monitoring. We argue that the collective power of combining diverse data will transcend the limited value of the individual data sets and produce unexpected insights. We can also consider the confinement experiment as a "stress test" to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses in the adequacy of existing networks to detect human impacts on natural systems. Doing so will provide evidence for the value of the conservation strategies that are presently in place, and create future networks, observatories and policies that are more adept in protecting biological diversity across the world.

Leaf longevity in temperate evergreen species is related to phylogeny and leaf size

Leaf longevity (LL), the amount of time a photosynthetically active leaf remains on a plant, is an important trait of evergreen species, affecting physiological ecology and ecosystem processes. A long LL gives leaves more time to fix carbon but carries higher construction costs, while a short LL allows plants to respond more rapidly to changing environmental conditions. For many evergreen taxa, LL data are not readily available, and it is not known if LL is phylogenetically conserved. To address this gap, we measured LL for 169 temperate and boreal evergreen woody species at the Arnold Arboretum, a botanical garden in Boston, Massachusetts, along with metrics of leaf size and number known to be related to LL. We hypothesized that LL is phylogenetically conserved, and that longer LL is associated with a greater numbers of leaves, smaller leaves, and a colder hardiness zone of the species' native range. We found that average LL ranged from 1.4 years in Rhododendron tomentosum to 10.5 years in Abies cilicia. LL was phylogenetically conserved, with some genera, such as Abies and Picea, exhibiting long LL (> 3 years) and others, such as Ilex and Rhododendron, exhibiting short LL (< 3 years). Leaf length was negatively correlated with LL in conifers, due to differences between Pinus and other genera; however, there was no correlation between LL and number of leaves. This study highlights the considerable variation and phylogenetic pattern in LL among temperate evergreen species, which has implications for carbon budgets and ecosystem models.

Phenology models using herbarium specimens are only slightly improved by using finer-scale stages of reproduction

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Herbarium specimens are increasingly used to study reproductive phenology. Here, we ask whether classifying reproduction into progressively finer-scale stages improves our understanding of the relationship between climate and reproductive phenology.

METHODS

We evaluated Acer rubrum herbarium specimens across eastern North America, classifying them into eight reproductive phenophases and four stages of leaf development. We fit models with different reproductive phenology categorization schemes (from detailed to broad) and compared model fits and coefficients describing temperature, elevation, and year effects. We fit similar models to leaf phenology data to compare reproductive to leafing phenology.

RESULTS

Finer-scale reproductive phenophases improved model fits and provided more precise estimates of reproductive phenology. However, models with fewer reproductive phenophases led to similar qualitative conclusions, demonstrating that A. rubrum reproduces earlier in warmer locations, lower elevations, and in recent years, as well as that leafing phenology is less strongly influenced by temperature than is reproductive phenology.

DISCUSSION

Our study suggests that detailed information on reproductive phenology provides a fuller understanding of potential climate change effects on flowering, fruiting, and leaf-out. However, classification schemes with fewer reproductive phenophases provided many similar insights and may be preferable in cases where resources are limited.

Patterns and predictors of fleshy fruit phenology at five international botanical gardens

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

To improve our understanding of the patterns and drivers of fleshy fruit phenology, we examined the sequence, patterns across years and locations, and drivers of fruiting times at five botanical gardens on three continents.

METHODS

We monitored four stages of fruit phenology for 406 temperate, fleshy-fruited, woody plant species in 2014 and 2015.

KEY RESULTS

Across all gardens, ripe fruits were present from May to March of the following year, with peak fruiting durations ranging from under 1 week to over 150 days. Species-level first fruiting and onset of peak fruiting dates were strongly associated with one another within sites and were more consistent between years and sites than the end of peak fruiting and last fruiting date. The order of fruiting among species between years and gardens was moderately consistent, and both peak fruiting times and fruiting durations were found to be phylogenetically conserved.

CONCLUSIONS

The consistent order of fruiting among species between years and locations indicates species-specific phenological responses to environmental conditions. Wide variation in fruiting times across species and in the duration of peak fruiting reinforces the importance of understanding how plant phenology impacts dispersers and monitoring the health and consistency of these interactions.

Local environment, not local adaptation, drives leaf-out phenology in common gardens along an elevational gradient in Acadia National Park, Maine

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Climate-driven changes in phenology are substantially affecting ecological relationships and ecosystem processes. The role of variation among species has received particular attention; for example, variation among species' phenological responses to climate can disrupt trophic interactions and can influence plant performance. Variation within species in phenological responses to climate, however, has received much less attention, despite its potential role in ecological interactions and local adaptation to climate change.

METHODS

We constructed three common gardens across an elevation gradient on Cadillac Mountain in Acadia National Park, Maine, to test population-level responses in leaf-out phenology in a reciprocal transplant experiment. The experiment included three native species: low bush blueberry (Vaccinium angustifolium), sheep's laurel (Kalmia angustifolia), and three-toothed cinquefoil (Sibbaldiopsis tridentata).

KEY RESULTS

Evidence for local adaptation of phenological response to temperature varied among the species, but was weak for all three. Rather, variation in phenological response to temperature appeared to be driven by local microclimate at each garden site and year-to-year variation in temperature.

CONCLUSIONS

Population-level adaptations in leaf-out phenology appear to be relatively unimportant for these species in Acadia National Park, perhaps a reflection of strong genetic mixing across elevations, or weak differences in selection on phenological response to spring temperatures at different elevations. These results concur with other observational data in Acadia and highlight the utility of experimental approaches to understand the importance of annual and local site variation in affecting phenology both among and within plant species.

Drivers of vegetative dormancy across herbaceous perennial plant species

Vegetative dormancy, that is the temporary absence of aboveground growth for ≥ 1 year, is paradoxical, because plants cannot photosynthesise or flower during dormant periods. We test ecological and evolutionary hypotheses for its widespread persistence. We show that dormancy has evolved numerous times. Most species displaying dormancy exhibit life-history costs of sprouting, and of dormancy. Short-lived and mycoheterotrophic species have higher proportions of dormant plants than long-lived species and species with other nutritional modes. Foliage loss is associated with higher future dormancy levels, suggesting that carbon limitation promotes dormancy. Maximum dormancy duration is shorter under higher precipitation and at higher latitudes, the latter suggesting an important role for competition or herbivory. Study length affects estimates of some demographic parameters. Our results identify life historical and environmental drivers of dormancy. We also highlight the evolutionary importance of the little understood costs of sprouting and growth, latitudinal stress gradients and mixed nutritional modes.

Widespread sampling biases in herbaria revealed from large-scale digitization

Nonrandom collecting practices may bias conclusions drawn from analyses of herbarium records. Recent efforts to fully digitize and mobilize regional floras online offer a timely opportunity to assess commonalities and differences in herbarium sampling biases. We determined spatial, temporal, trait, phylogenetic, and collector biases in c. 5 million herbarium records, representing three of the most complete digitized floras of the world: Australia (AU), South Africa (SA), and New England, USA (NE). We identified numerous shared and unique biases among these regions. Shared biases included specimens collected close to roads and herbaria; specimens collected more frequently during biological spring and summer; specimens of threatened species collected less frequently; and specimens of close relatives collected in similar numbers. Regional differences included overrepresentation of graminoids in SA and AU and of annuals in AU; and peak collection during the 1910s in NE, 1980s in SA, and 1990s in AU. Finally, in all regions, a disproportionately large percentage of specimens were collected by very few individuals. We hypothesize that these mega-collectors, with their associated preferences and idiosyncrasies, shaped patterns of collection bias via 'founder effects'. Studies using herbarium collections should account for sampling biases, and future collecting efforts should avoid compounding these biases to the extent possible.

Long-term carbon sink in Borneo's forests halted by drought and vulnerable to edge effects

Less than half of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions remain in the atmosphere. While carbon balance models imply large carbon uptake in tropical forests, direct on-the-ground observations are still lacking in Southeast Asia. Here, using long-term plot monitoring records of up to half a century, we find that intact forests in Borneo gained 0.43 Mg C ha⁻¹ per year (95% CI 0.14–0.72, mean period 1988–2010) in above-ground live biomass carbon. These results closely match those from African and Amazonian plot networks, suggesting that the world’s remaining intact tropical forests are now en masse out-of-equilibrium. Although both pan-tropical and long-term, the sink in remaining intact forests appears vulnerable to climate and land use changes. Across Borneo the 1997–1998 El Niño drought temporarily halted the carbon sink by increasing tree mortality, while fragmentation persistently offset the sink and turned many edge-affected forests into a carbon source to the atmosphere.

The existence of a pan-tropical forest carbon sink remains uncertain due to the lack of data from Asia. Here, using direct on-the-ground observations, the authors confirm remaining intact forests in Borneo have provided a long-term carbon sink, but carbon net gains are vulnerable to drought and edge effects.

Humidity does not appear to trigger leaf out in woody plants

In order to anticipate the ecological impacts of climate change and model changes to forests, it is important to understand the factors controlling spring leaf out. Leaf out phenology in woody trees and shrubs is generally considered to be strongly controlled by a combination of spring warming, winter chilling requirement, and photoperiod. However, researchers have recently suggested that temperature-related air humidity, rather than temperature itself, might be the main trigger of the spring leaf-out of woody plants. Here, we sought to examine the relationship between air humidity and leaf-out across a range of humidities and plant functional groups. We did not find any consistent, measurable effect of high humidity advancing leaf-out in the 15 woody shrubs and trees examined in this study, and we did not see progressive patterns of earlier leaf-out in successively higher humidities. Our results indicate that more work must be done on this topic before researchers can properly determine the effect of humidity on the leafing out process for woody species.

Climate effects on late-season flight times of Massachusetts butterflies

Although the responses of living organisms to climate change are being widely investigated, little attention has been given to such effects late in the growing season. We studied the late-season flight times of 20 species of butterflies in a geographically limited region, the state of Massachusetts in the USA, by examining change in dates of flight over a 22-year period and in response to average monthly temperature and precipitation. By analyzing the last 10% of each year's observations reported by observers of the Massachusetts Butterfly Club, we found that seven species remain in flight significantly later into the fall than they did two decades earlier, while two species show reduced late-season flight. Life history characteristics of the species, particularly voltinism and average fall flight dates, influenced whether warmer fall months led to increases or decreases in fall flight. Warmer Novembers often led to later fall flight, and wetter Augusts usually extended fall flight. These results document the effects of climate on late-season flight times of butterflies, add to an understanding of how warmer autumn conditions alter the phenology of different butterfly species, and show the usefulness of citizen science data.

Substantial variation in leaf senescence times among 1360 temperate woody plant species: implications for phenology and ecosystem processes

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Autumn leaf senescence marks the end of the growing season in temperate ecosystems. Its timing influences a number of ecosystem processes, including carbon, water and nutrient cycling. Climate change is altering leaf senescence phenology and, as those changes continue, it will affect individual woody plants, species and ecosystems. In contrast to spring leaf out times, however, leaf senescence times remain relatively understudied. Variation in the phenology of leaf senescence among species and locations is still poorly understood.

METHODS

Leaf senescence phenology of 1360 deciduous plant species at six temperate botanical gardens in Asia, North America and Europe was recorded in 2012 and 2013. This large data set was used to explore ecological and phylogenetic factors associated with variation in leaf senescence.

KEY RESULTS

Leaf senescence dates among species varied by 3 months on average across the six locations. Plant species tended to undergo leaf senescence in the same order in the autumns of both years at each location, but the order of senescence was only weakly correlated across sites. Leaf senescence times were not related to spring leaf out times, were not evolutionarily conserved and were only minimally influenced by growth habit, wood anatomy and percentage colour change or leaf drop. These weak patterns of leaf senescence timing contrast with much stronger leaf out patterns from a previous study.

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest that, in contrast to the broader temperature effects that determine leaf out times, leaf senescence times are probably determined by a larger or different suite of local environmental effects, including temperature, soil moisture, frost and wind. Determining the importance of these factors for a wide range of species represents the next challenge for understanding how climate change is affecting the end of the growing season and associated ecosystem processes.

From observations to experiments in phenology research: investigating climate change impacts on trees and shrubs using dormant twigs

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Climate change is advancing the leaf-out times of many plant species and mostly extending the growing season in temperate ecosystems. Laboratory experiments using twig cuttings from woody plant species present an affordable, easily replicated approach to investigate the relative importance of factors such as winter chilling, photoperiod, spring warming and frost tolerance on the leafing-out times of plant communities. This Viewpoint article demonstrates how the results of these experiments deepen our understanding beyond what is possible via analyses of remote sensing and field observation data, and can be used to improve climate change forecasts of shifts in phenology, ecosystem processes and ecological interactions.

SCOPE

The twig method involves cutting dormant twigs from trees, shrubs and vines on a single date or at intervals over the course of the winter and early spring, placing them in containers of water in controlled environments, and regularly recording leaf-out, flowering or other phenomena. Prior to or following leaf-out or flowering, twigs may be assigned to treatment groups for experiments involving temperature, photoperiod, frost, humidity and more. Recent studies using these methods have shown that winter chilling requirements and spring warming strongly affect leaf-out and flowering times of temperate trees and shrubs, whereas photoperiod requirements are less important than previously thought for most species. Invasive plant species have weaker winter chilling requirements than native species in temperate ecosystems, and species that leaf-out early in the season have greater frost tolerance than later leafing species.

CONCLUSIONS

This methodology could be extended to investigate additional drivers of leaf-out phenology, leaf senescence in the autumn, and other phenomena, and could be a useful tool for education and outreach. Additional ecosystems, such as boreal, southern hemisphere and sub-tropical forests, could also be investigated using dormant twigs to determine the drivers of leaf-out times and how these ecosystems will be affected by climate change.