Seed origin and warming constrain lodgepole pine recruitment, slowing the pace of population range shifts

Low acclimation potential compromises the performance of water-stressed pine saplings under Mediterranean xeric conditions

Predicted hotter and drier climatic conditions in the Mediterranean Basin will probably hamper current afforestations and reforestations by negatively influencing tree performance. Understanding how saplings can adjust their physiology to shortages in water availability is essential to predict early-stage success of forest ecological restoration. Pines are common target species used in afforestations and reforestations; however, the capacity of their saplings for physiological plasticity to promote drought tolerance remains largely unexplored. In this study, we evaluated the demographical and resource-use consequences of short-term irrigation among four pine species (Pinus halepensis, Pinus pinea, Pinus nigra and Pinus sylvestris) growing under water-limiting conditions in a common garden experiment. Summer irrigation increased the survival rate of those pines that were suffering from hydric stress under the xeric conditions of the common garden (i.e. P. pinea, P. nigra and P. sylvestris). Moreover, short-term water supplementation slightly enhanced aboveground biomass production across species. However, leaf isotopic composition and nutrient concentrations did not change after summer irrigation. Independently of water supplementation, P. halepensis was the best adapted species to water scarcity and showed the best physiological and growth performance. By contrast, P. pinea, P. nigra and P. sylvestris saplings exhibited drought-induced reductions in stomatal conductance and low water-use efficiency, nutrient deficiency, and severe N:P and N:K stoichiometric imbalances, leading to impaired growth. We conclude that the lack of physiological plasticity of water-stressed pine saplings to withstand the impacts of climate aridification will likely cause severe impairment of their nutrient status, growth and survival, with dire implications for the successful establishment of Mediterranean afforestation and reforestation programs.

Forest regeneration within Earth system models: current process representations and ways forward

Earth system models must predict forest responses to global change in order to simulate future global climate, hydrology, and ecosystem dynamics. These models are increasingly adopting vegetation demographic approaches that explicitly represent tree growth, mortality, and recruitment, enabling advances in the projection of forest vulnerability and resilience, as well as evaluation with field data. To date, simulation of regeneration processes has received far less attention than simulation of processes that affect growth and mortality, in spite of their critical role maintaining forest structure, facilitating turnover in forest composition over space and time, enabling recovery from disturbance, and regulating climate-driven range shifts. Our critical review of regeneration process representations within current Earth system vegetation demographic models reveals the need to improve parameter values and algorithms for reproductive allocation, dispersal, seed survival and germination, environmental filtering in the seedling layer, and tree regeneration strategies adapted to wind, fire, and anthropogenic disturbance regimes. These improvements require synthesis of existing data, specific field data-collection protocols, and novel model algorithms compatible with global-scale simulations. Vegetation demographic models offer the opportunity to more fully integrate ecological understanding into Earth system prediction; regeneration processes need to be a critical part of the effort.

Poor acclimation to experimental field drought in subalpine forest tree seedlings

The ability of tree species to acclimate and tolerate projected increases in drought frequency and intensity has fundamental implications for future forest dynamics with climate change. Inquiries to date on the drought tolerance capacities of tree species, however, have focused almost exclusively on mature trees with scant in situ work on seedlings, despite the central role that regeneration dynamics play in forest responses to changing conditions. We subjected naturally established seedlings of co-dominant subalpine conifer species (Abies lasiocarpa and Picea engelmannii) in the southern Rocky Mountains to 2 years of in situ summer precipitation exclusion, simulating summer drought conditions similar to a failure of the North American monsoon. We compared the morphological and physiological responses of seedlings growing in drought vs. ambient conditions to assess the relative changes in drought tolerance traits as a function of seedling size. Drought treatments had a marked impact on soil moisture: volumetric water content averaged ≈5-8 % in drought treatments and ≈8-12 % in ambient controls. We detected no significant shifts in morphology (e.g. root biomass, leaf:stem area ratio) in response to drought for either species, but net photosynthesis in drought treatments was 78 % lower for spruce and 37 % lower for fir. Greater stomatal control associated with increasing stem diameter conferred greater water use efficiencies in larger seedlings in both species but was not significantly different between drought and ambient conditions, suggesting an overall lack of responsivity to water stress and a prioritization of carbon gain over investment in drought mitigation traits. These results indicate a canonization of traits that, while useful for early seedling establishment, may portend substantial vulnerability of subalpine seedling populations to prolonged or recurrent droughts, especially for spruce.

Differences in morphological and physiological plasticity in two species of first-year conifer seedlings exposed to drought result in distinct survivorship patterns

First-year tree seedlings represent a critical demographic life stage, functioning as a bottleneck to forest regeneration. Knowledge of how mortality is related to whole-seedling carbon and water relations is deficient and is required to understand how forest compositions will be altered in future climatic conditions. We performed a greenhouse drought experiment using first-year seedlings of two common pine species found in the Intermountain West, USA. Gas exchange, biomass gain, allometry and xylem water potentials were compared between well-watered and droughted seedlings from emergence until drought-induced mortality. In both species, morphological adjustments to confer drought tolerance, such as increased leaf mass per unit area, were not observed in seedlings exposed to drought, and droughted seedlings maintained photosynthesis and whole-seedling carbon gain well into the experiment. Yet, there were important differences between species in terms of carbon budgets, physiological responses and mortality patterns. In Pinus ponderosa P. & C. Lawson, physiological acclimation to drought was much greater, evident through stronger stomatal regulation and increased water-use efficiency. Photosynthesis and carbon budgets in P. ponderosa were greater than in Pinus contorta Dougl. ex. Loud., and survival was 100% until critical hydraulic thresholds in leaf water content and seedling water potentials were crossed. In P. contorta, physiological adjustments to drought were less, and mortality occurred much sooner and well before injurious hydraulic thresholds were approached. First-year conifer seedlings appear canalized for a suite of functional traits that prioritize short-term carbon gain over long-term drought tolerance, suggesting that conifer seedling survival is linked with carbon limitations, even during drought, with survival in species having narrower carbon survival margins being more hampered by carbon limitations.

Photosynthetic capacity and leaf nitrogen decline along a controlled climate gradient in provenances of two widely distributed Eucalyptus species

Climate is an important factor limiting tree distributions and adaptation to different thermal environments may influence how tree populations respond to climate warming. Given the current rate of warming, it has been hypothesized that tree populations in warmer, more thermally stable climates may have limited capacity to respond physiologically to warming compared to populations from cooler, more seasonal climates. We determined in a controlled environment how several provenances of widely distributed Eucalyptus tereticornis and E. grandis adjusted their photosynthetic capacity to +3.5°C warming along their native distribution range (~16-38°S) and whether climate of seed origin of the provenances influenced their response to different growth temperatures. We also tested how temperature optima (T_opt ) of photosynthesis and J_max responded to higher growth temperatures. Our results showed increased photosynthesis rates at a standardized temperature with warming in temperate provenances, while rates in tropical provenances were reduced by about 40% compared to their temperate counterparts. Temperature optima of photosynthesis increased as provenances were exposed to warmer growth temperatures. Both species had ~30% reduced photosynthetic capacity in tropical and subtropical provenances related to reduced leaf nitrogen and leaf Rubisco content compared to temperate provenances. Tropical provenances operated closer to their thermal optimum and came within 3% of the T_opt of J_max during the daily temperature maxima. Hence, further warming may negatively affect C uptake and tree growth in warmer climates, whereas eucalypts in cooler climates may benefit from moderate warming.

Biotic and abiotic drivers of tree seedling recruitment across an alpine treeline ecotone

Treeline responses to climate change ultimately depend on successful seedling recruitment, which requires dispersal of viable seeds and establishment of individual propagules in novel environments. In this study, we evaluated the effects of several abiotic and biotic drivers of early tree seedling recruitment across an alpine treeline ecotone. In two consecutive years, we sowed seeds of low- and high-elevation provenances of Larix decidua (European larch) and Picea abies (Norway spruce) below, at, and above the current treeline into intact vegetation and into open microsites with artificially removed surface vegetation, as well as into plots protected from seed predators and herbivores. Seedling emergence and early establishment in treatment and in control plots were monitored over two years. Tree seedling emergence occurred at and several hundred metres above the current treeline when viable seeds and suitable microsites for germination were available. However, dense vegetation cover at lower elevations and winter mortality at higher elevations particularly limited early recruitment. Post-dispersal predation, species, and provenance also affected emergence and early establishment. This study demonstrates the importance of understanding multiple abiotic and biotic drivers of early seedling recruitment that should be incorporated into predictions of treeline dynamics under climate change.

Seed origin and warming constrain lodgepole pine recruitment, slowing the pace of population range shifts

Understanding how climate warming will affect the demographic rates of different ecotypes is critical to predicting shifts in species distributions. Here, we present results from a common garden, climate change experiment in which we measured seedling recruitment of lodgepole pine, a widespread North American conifer that is also planted globally. Seeds from a low-elevation provenance had more than three-fold greater recruitment to their third year than seeds from a high-elevation provenance across sites within and above its native elevation range and across climate manipulations. Heating halved recruitment to the third year of both low- and high-elevation seed sources across the elevation gradient, while watering more than doubled recruitment, alleviating some of the negative effects of heating. Demographic models based on recruitment data from the climate manipulations and long-term observations of adult populations revealed that heating could effectively halt modeled upslope range expansion except when combined with watering. Simulating fire and rapid postfire forest recovery at lower elevations accelerated lodgepole pine expansion into the alpine, but did not alter final abundance rankings among climate scenarios. Regardless of climate scenario, greater recruitment of low-elevation seeds compensated for longer dispersal distances to treeline, assuming colonization was allowed to proceed over multiple centuries. Our results show that ecotypes from lower elevations within a species' range could enhance recruitment and facilitate upslope range shifts with climate change.