Projecting global mariculture diversity under climate change

Effect of marine heatwaves on juvenile greater amberjack (Seriola dumerili)

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have increased in frequency, intensity, and duration in recent years causing significant impacts on marine organisms and fisheries. This study explores the physiological changes of juvenile greater amberjacks (Seriola dumerili) that cope with MHWs. Results showed that physiological parameters were significantly affected by the intensity, duration of MHWs or interaction of two factors (P < 0.05). Repeated MHWs in which water temperatures were increased (24 °C to 28 °C and 32 °C) resulted in changes in enzyme activity levels (catalase (CAT), superoxide dismutase (SOD), and glutathione (GSH)), as well as the level of malondialdehyde (MDA) for antioxidant defense, immune function (acid phosphatase (ACP), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), and lysozyme (LYZ)), and energy metabolism (including triglycerides (TG), glucose (GLU), aspartate aminotransferase (GOT), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and succinate dehydrogenase (SDH)). The activities of enzymes, including those associated with antioxidant defense, immune function, and energy metabolism, changed significantly in relation to short-term MHWs, indicating a thermal stress response. When S. dumerili were exposed to repeated-MHWs, thermal stress responses increased at 28 °C (T28) and decreased at 32 °C (T32). These results exhibited the inability of S. dumerili to acclimate to severe thermal stress from MHWs. This study examined S. dumerili responses to MHWs and assessed the physiological adaptation of juvenile greater amberjacks to MHWs.

Elevated CO2 moderates the impact of climate change on future bamboo distribution in Madagascar

The distribution of bamboo is sensitive to climate change and is also potentially affected by increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations due to its C3 photosynthetic pathway. Yet the effect of CO₂ in climate impact assessments of potential changes in bamboo distribution has to date been overlooked. In this study, we proposed a simple and quantitative method to incorporate the impact of atmospheric CO₂ concentration into a species distribution modeling framework. To do so, we implemented 10 niche modeling algorithms with regionally downscaled climatic variables and combined field campaign observations. We assessed future climate impacts on the distribution of an economically and ecologically important and widely distributed bamboo species in Madagascar, and examined the effect of increasing CO₂ on future projections. Our results suggested that future climatic changes negatively impact potential bamboo distribution in Madagascar, leading to a decline of 34.8% of climatic suitability and a decline of 63.6 ± 3.2% in suitable areas towards 2100 under RCP 8.5. However, increasing atmosphere CO₂ offsets the climate impact for bamboo, and led to a smaller reduction of 19.8% in suitability and a potential distribution expansion of +111.6 ± 9.8% in newly suitable areas. We also found that the decline in climatic suitability for bamboo was related to increasing monthly potential evapotranspiration of the warmest quarter and minimum temperature of the warmest month. Conversely, the decreasing isothermality and increasing precipitation of the warmest quarter contributed to projected increase in bamboo-suitable areas. Our study suggested that elevated CO₂ may mitigate the decrease in climatic suitability and increase bamboo-suitable areas, through enhancing water use efficiency and decreasing potential evapotranspiration. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for the CO₂ effect on future plant species distributions, and provide a mechanistic approach to do so for ecosystems constrained by water.

Projecting global mariculture production and adaptation pathways under climate change

The sustainability of global seafood supply to meet increasing demand is facing several challenges, including increasing consumption levels due to a growing human population, fisheries resources over-exploitation and climate change. Whilst growth in seafood production from capture fisheries is limited, global mariculture production is expanding. However, climate change poses risks to the potential seafood production from mariculture. Here, we apply a global mariculture production model that accounts for changing ocean conditions, suitable marine area for farming, fishmeal and fish oil production, farmed species dietary demand, farmed fish price and global seafood demand to project mariculture production under two climate and socio-economic scenarios. We include 85 farmed marine fish and mollusc species, representing about 70% of all mariculture production in 2015. Results show positive global mariculture production changes by the mid and end of the 21^st century relative to the 2000s under the SSP1-2.6 scenario with an increase of 17%±5 and 33%±6, respectively. However, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, an increase of 8%±5 is projected, with production peaking by mid-century and declining by 16%±5 towards the end of the 21^st century. More than 25% of mariculture-producing nations are projected to lose 40%-90% of their current mariculture production potential under SSP5-8.5 by mid-century. Projected impacts are mainly due to the direct ocean warming effects on farmed species and suitable marine areas, and the indirect impacts of changing availability of forage fishes supplies to produce aquafeed. Fishmeal replacement with alternative protein can lower climate impacts on a subset of finfish production. However, such adaptation measures do not apply to regions dominated by non-feed-based farming (i.e. molluscs) and regions losing substantial marine areas suitable for mariculture. Our study highlights the importance of strong mitigation efforts and the need for different climate adaptation options tailored to the diversity of mariculture systems, to support climate-resilient mariculture development.

Micronutrient supply from global marine fisheries under climate change and overfishing

Fish are rich in bioavailable micronutrients, such as zinc and iron, deficiencies of which are a global food security concern.^1,2 Global marine fisheries yields are threatened by climate change and overfishing,^3,4 yet understanding of how these stressors affect the nutrients available from fisheries is lacking.^5,6 Here, using global assessments of micronutrient content² and fisheries catch data,⁷ we investigate how the vulnerability status of marine fish species^8,9 may translate into vulnerability of micronutrient availability at scales of both individual species and entire fishery assemblages for 157 countries. We further quantify the micronutrient evenness of catches to identify countries where interventions can optimize micronutrient supply. Our global analysis, including >800 marine fish species, reveals that, at a species level, micronutrient availability and vulnerability to both climate change and overfishing varies greatly, with tropical species displaying a positive co-tolerance, indicating greater persistence to both stressors at a community level.¹⁰ Global fisheries catches had relatively low nutritional vulnerability to fishing. Catches with higher species richness tend to be nutrient dense and evenly distributed but are more vulnerable to climate change, with 40% of countries displaying high vulnerability. Countries with high prevalence of inadequate micronutrient intake tend to have the most nutrient-dense catches, but these same fisheries are highly vulnerable to climate change, with relatively lower capacity to adapt.¹¹ Our analysis highlights the need to consolidate fisheries, climate, and food policies to secure the sustainable contribution of fish-derived micronutrients to food and nutrition security.

Ecological Engineering for the Optimisation of the Land-Based Marine Aquaculture of Coastal Shellfish

Whilst the demand for nutritious and sustainable seafood is increasing, fishing yields are declining due to overfishing and climate change. The inshore aquaculture of marine molluscs-e.g., the suspension-feeding cockle Cerastoderma edule for NW Europe-might be an alternative practice if cost-effective and nature-based technology enhances growth and survival. Our inshore experiments revealed that increasing the seawater residence time resulted in improved water quality. The reduction in sediment loads and stimulation of pelagic microalgal growth resulted in enhanced shell growth and meat content of the wild cockles seeded into the system. Shorter residence times resulted also in an increase in benthic microalgae, but the concurrent increase in silt content of the sediment appeared to hamper effective filtration by cockles. The growth conditions (with respect to the water and sediment quality) for the inshore cultivation of cockles can indeed be improved by means of ecological engineering, suggesting that the inshore aquaculture of marine shellfish can provide sustainable food and income for coastal communities, in particular when the shellfish farms are located in low-lying salinized coastal areas where common agriculture practices are no longer profitable. The involvement of the shellfishery industry was and will be crucial for studying and understanding the complex practice of cockle cultivation.