Projected climate and land use change alter western blacklegged tick phenology, seasonal host-seeking suitability and human encounter risk in California

The microbiota of Amblyomma americanum reflects known westward expansion

Amblyomma americanum, a known vector of multiple tick-borne pathogens, has expanded its geographic distribution across the United States in the past decades. Tick microbiomes may play a role shaping their host's life history and vectorial capacity. Bacterial communities associated with A. americanum may reflect, or enable, geographic expansion and studying the microbiota will improve understanding of tick-borne disease ecology. We examined the microbiota structure of 189 adult ticks collected in four regions encompassing their historical and current geographic distribution. Both geographic region of origin and sex were significant predictors of alpha diversity. As in other tick models, within-sample diversity was low and uneven given the presence of dominant endosymbionts. Beta diversity analyses revealed that bacterial profiles of ticks of both sexes collected in the West were significantly different from those of the Historic range. Biomarkers were identified for all regions except the historical range. In addition, Bray-Curtis dissimilarities overall increased with distance between sites. Relative quantification of ecological processes showed that, for females and males, respectively, drift and dispersal limitation were the primary drivers of community assembly. Collectively, our findings highlight how microbiota structural variance discriminates the western-expanded populations of A. americanum ticks from the Historical range. Spatial autocorrelation, and particularly the detection of non-selective ecological processes, are indicative of geographic isolation. We also found that prevalence of Ehrlichia chaffeensis, E. ewingii, and Anaplasma phagocytophilum ranged from 3.40-5.11% and did not significantly differ by region. Rickettsia rickettsii was absent from our samples. Our conclusions demonstrate the value of synergistic analysis of biogeographic and microbial ecology data in investigating range expansion in A. americanum and potentially other tick vectors as well.

History of the geographic distribution of the western blacklegged tick, Ixodes pacificus, in the United States

Ixodes pacificus (the western blacklegged tick) occurs in the far western United States (US), where it commonly bites humans. This tick was not considered a species of medical concern until it was implicated in the 1980s as a vector of Lyme disease spirochetes. Later, it was discovered to also be the primary vector to humans in the far western US of agents causing anaplasmosis and hard tick relapsing fever. The core distribution of I. pacificus in the US includes California, western Oregon, and western Washington, with outlier populations reported in Utah and Arizona. In this review, we provide a history of the documented occurrence of I. pacificus in the US from the 1890s to present, and discuss associations of its geographic range with landscape, hosts, and climate. In contrast to Ixodes scapularis (the blacklegged tick) in the eastern US, there is no evidence for a dramatic change in the geographic distribution of I. pacificus over the last half-century. Field surveys in the 1930s and 1940s documented I. pacificus along the Pacific Coast from southern California to northern Washington, in the Sierra Nevada foothills, and in western Utah. County level collection records often included both immatures and adults of I. pacificus, recovered by drag sampling or from humans, domestic animals, and wildlife. The estimated geographic distribution presented for I. pacificus in 1945 by Bishopp and Trembley is similar to that presented in 2022 by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. There is no clear evidence of range expansion for I. pacificus, separate from tick records in new areas that could have resulted from newly initiated or intensified surveillance efforts. Moreover, there is no evidence from long-term studies that the density of questing I. pacificus ticks has increased over time in specific areas. It therefore is not surprising that the incidence of Lyme disease has remained stable in the Pacific Coast states from the early 1990s, when it became a notifiable condition, to present. We note that deforestation and deer depredation were less severe in the far western US during the 1800s and early 1900s compared to the eastern US. This likely contributed to I. pacificus maintaining stable, widespread populations across its geographic range in the far western US in the early 1900s, while I. scapularis during the same time period appears to have been restricted to a small number of geographically isolated refugia sites within its present range in the eastern US. The impact that a warming climate may have had on the geographic distribution and local abundance of I. pacificus in recent decades remains unclear.

Assessing the Influence of Climate Change and Environmental Factors on the Top Tick-Borne Diseases in the United States: A Systematic Review

In the United States (US), tick-borne diseases (TBDs) have more than doubled in the past fifteen years and are a major contributor to the overall burden of vector-borne diseases. The most common TBDs in the US-Lyme disease, rickettsioses (including Rocky Mountain spotted fever), and anaplasmosis-have gradually shifted in recent years, resulting in increased morbidity and mortality. In this systematic review, we examined climate change and other environmental factors that have influenced the epidemiology of these TBDs in the US while highlighting the opportunities for a One Health approach to mitigating their impact. We searched Medline Plus, PUBMED, and Google Scholar for studies focused on these three TBDs in the US from January 2018 to August 2023. Data selection and extraction were completed using Covidence, and the risk of bias was assessed with the ROBINS-I tool. The review included 84 papers covering multiple states across the US. We found that climate, seasonality and temporality, and land use are important environmental factors that impact the epidemiology and patterns of TBDs. The emerging trends, influenced by environmental factors, emphasize the need for region-specific research to aid in the prediction and prevention of TBDs.

Reconstructed Global Invasion and Spatio-Temporal Distribution Pattern Dynamics of Sorghum halepense under Climate and Land-Use Change

Sorghum halepense competes with crops and grass species in cropland, grassland, and urban environments, increasing invasion risk. However, the invasive historical dynamics and distribution patterns of S. halepense associated with current and future climate change and land-use change (LUC) remain unknown. We first analyzed the invasive historical dynamics of S. halepense to explore its invasion status and expansion trends. We then used a species distribution model to examine how future climate change and LUC will facilitate the invasion of S. halepense. We reconstructed the countries that have historically been invaded by S. halepense based on databases with detailed records of countries and occurrences. We ran biomod2 based on climate data and land-use data at 5' resolution, assessing the significance of environmental variables and LUC. Sorghum halepense was widely distributed worldwide through grain trade and forage introduction, except in Africa. Europe and North America provided most potential global suitable habitats (PGSHs) for S. halepense in cropland, grassland, and urban environments, representing 48.69%, 20.79%, and 84.82%, respectively. The future PGSHs of S. halepense increased continuously in the Northern Hemisphere, transferring to higher latitudes. Environmental variables were more significant than LUC in predicting the PGSHs of S. halepense. Future PGSHs of S. halepense are expected to increase, exacerbating the invasion risk through agricultural LUC. These results provide a basis for the early warning and prevention of S. halepense worldwide.

Infectious Disease Sensitivity to Climate and Other Driver-Pressure Changes: Research Effort and Gaps for Lyme Disease and Cryptosporidiosis

Climate sensitivity of infectious diseases is discussed in many studies. A quantitative basis for distinguishing and predicting the disease impacts of climate and other environmental and anthropogenic driver-pressure changes, however, is often lacking. To assess research effort and identify possible key gaps that can guide further research, we here apply a scoping review approach to two widespread infectious diseases: Lyme disease (LD) as a vector-borne and cryptosporidiosis as a water-borne disease. Based on the emerging publication data, we further structure and quantitatively assess the driver-pressure foci and interlinkages considered in the published research so far. This shows important research gaps for the roles of rarely investigated water-related and socioeconomic factors for LD, and land-related factors for cryptosporidiosis. For both diseases, the interactions of host and parasite communities with climate and other driver-pressure factors are understudied, as are also important world regions relative to the disease geographies; in particular, Asia and Africa emerge as main geographic gaps for LD and cryptosporidiosis research, respectively. The scoping approach developed and gaps identified in this study should be useful for further assessment and guidance of research on infectious disease sensitivity to climate and other environmental and anthropogenic changes around the world.

Regional dynamics of tick vectors of human disease

The expansion of tick-borne diseases challenges ecologists, epidemiologists, and public health professionals to understand the mechanisms underlying its emergence. The vast majority of tick-borne disease research emphasizes Ixodes spp. and Borrelia burgdorferi, with less known about other Ixodidae ticks that serve as vectors for an increasing number of pathogens of public health concern. Here, we review and discuss the current knowledge of tick and tick-borne pathogens in an undersurveilled region of the United States. We discuss how landscape shifts may potentially influence tick vector dynamics and expansion. We also discuss the impact of climate change on the phenology of ticks and subsequent disease transmission. Increased efforts in the Central Plains to conduct basic science will help understand the patterns of tick distribution and pathogen prevalence. It is crucial to develop intensive datasets that may be used to generate models that can aid in developing mitigation strategies.

Prediction of the potential suitable habitat of Echinococcus granulosus, the pathogen of echinococcosis, in the Tibetan Plateau under future climate scenarios

Echinococcosis is a zoonotic parasitic infectious disease caused by human or domestic animals infected with Echinococcus granulosus. China is the country with the heaviest disease burden caused by Echinococcosis in the world. Therefore, it is feasible to evaluate the prevalence and distribution of echinococcosis using relevant ecological methods, combined with environmental factors and human activities. In this study, MaxEnt was used to predict the distribution range of E. granulosus in China under current and future climate scenarios and explain the impact of environmental variables on its distribution. The results showed that elevation (El), annual mean temperature (bio1), human footprint (Hf), annual precipitation (bio12), mean temperature of warmest quarter (bio10), and mean temperature of wettest quarter (bio8) were identified as the dominant environmental variables. In Tibet, the most suitable habitats (25.9 × 10⁴ km²) of E. granulosus were distributed in Nyingchi and Qamdo in the east, Shigatse and Shannan in the south, and Ali in the west. In Sichuan, the most suitable habitat (18.83 × 10⁴ km²) was located in Aba, Ganzi, and Liangshan. In Qinghai, the most suitable habitat (13.05 × 10⁴ km²) mainly included Yushu in the southwest; Guoluo in the southeast; Haidong, Huangnan, Xining, and Hainan in the east; and Haixi in the west. In Gansu, the most suitable habitat (7.36 × 10⁴ km²) was located in Gannan and Linxia in the southwest and Wuwei and Dingxi in the middle. In Yunnan, the most suitable habitat (1.53 × 10⁴ km²) was distributed in Diqing in the northwest. Under future climate scenarios, the area of the most suitable habitat of E. granulosus showed an obvious expansion trend, with an increase of 44.64-70.76%. Trajectory trend of centroids showed that the most suitable habitat would move to the west in the future, and the increased areas were mainly located in the west of the current most suitable habitat. AUC values of the training data and test data were 0.936 ± 0.001 ~ 0.97 ± 0.006 and 0.912 ± 0.006 ~ 0.956 ± 0.015, respectively. The result can provide a theoretical basis for the prevention, monitoring, and early warning of echinococcosis in China.

A Scoping Review of Species Distribution Modeling Methods for Tick Vectors

Background

Globally, tick-borne disease is a pervasive and worsening problem that impacts human and domestic animal health, livelihoods, and numerous economies. Species distribution models are useful tools to help address these issues, but many different modeling approaches and environmental data sources exist.

Objective

We conducted a scoping review that examined all available research employing species distribution models to predict occurrence and map tick species to understand the diversity of model strategies, environmental predictors, tick data sources, frequency of climate projects of tick ranges, and types of model validation methods.

Design

Following the PRISMA-ScR checklist, we searched scientific databases for eligible articles, their references, and explored related publications through a graphical tool (www.connectedpapers.com). Two independent reviewers performed article selection and characterization using a priori criteria.

Results

We describe data collected from 107 peer-reviewed articles that met our inclusion criteria. The literature reflects that tick species distributions have been modeled predominantly in North America and Europe and have mostly modeled the habitat suitability for Ixodes ricinus (n = 23; 21.5%). A wide range of bioclimatic databases and other environmental correlates were utilized among models, but the WorldClim database and its bioclimatic variables 1–19 appeared in 60 (56%) papers. The most frequently chosen modeling approach was MaxEnt, which also appeared in 60 (56%) of papers. Despite the importance of ensemble modeling to reduce bias, only 23 papers (21.5%) employed more than one algorithm, and just six (5.6%) used an ensemble approach that incorporated at least five different modeling methods for comparison. Area under the curve/receiver operating characteristic was the most frequently reported model validation method, utilized in nearly all (98.9%) included studies. Only 21% of papers used future climate scenarios to predict tick range expansion or contraction. Regardless of the representative concentration pathway, six of seven genera were expected to both expand and retract depending on location, while Ornithodoros was predicted to only expand beyond its current range.

Conclusion

Species distribution modeling techniques are useful and widely employed tools for predicting tick habitat suitability and range movement. However, the vast array of methods, data sources, and validation strategies within the SDM literature support the need for standardized protocols for species distribution and ecological niche modeling for tick vectors.

Meteorological and climatic variables predict the phenology of Ixodes ricinus nymph activity in France, accounting for habitat heterogeneity

Ixodes ricinus ticks (Acari: Ixodidae) are the most important vector for Lyme borreliosis in Europe. As climate change might affect their distributions and activities, this study aimed to determine the effects of environmental factors, i.e., meteorological, bioclimatic, and habitat characteristics on host-seeking (questing) activity of I. ricinus nymphs, an important stage in disease transmissions, across diverse climatic types in France over 8 years. Questing activity was observed using a repeated removal sampling with a cloth-dragging technique in 11 sampling sites from 7 tick observatories from 2014 to 2021 at approximately 1-month intervals, involving 631 sampling campaigns. Three phenological patterns were observed, potentially following a climatic gradient. The mixed-effects negative binomial regression revealed that observed nymph counts were driven by different interval-average meteorological variables, including 1-month moving average temperature, previous 3-to-6-month moving average temperature, and 6-month moving average minimum relative humidity. The interaction effects indicated that the phenology in colder climates peaked differently from that of warmer climates. Also, land cover characteristics that support the highest baseline abundance were moderate forest fragmentation with transition borders with agricultural areas. Finally, our model could potentially be used to predict seasonal human-tick exposure risks in France that could contribute to mitigating Lyme borreliosis risk.

Modeling Geographic Uncertainty in Current and Future Habitat for Potential Populations of Ixodes pacificus (Acari: Ixodidae) in Alaska

Ixodes pacificus Cooley & Kohls is the primary vector of Lyme disease spirochetes to humans in the western United States. Although not native to Alaska, this tick species has recently been found on domestic animals in the state. Ixodes pacificus has a known native range within the western contiguous United States and southwest Canada; therefore, it is not clear if introduced individuals can successfully survive and reproduce in the high-latitude climate of Alaska. To identify areas of suitable habitat within Alaska for I. pacificus, we used model parameters from two existing sets of ensemble habitat distribution models calibrated in the contiguous United States. To match the model input covariates, we calculated climatic and land cover covariates for the present (1980-2014) and future (2070-2100) climatologies in Alaska. The present-day habitat suitability maps suggest that the climate and land cover in Southeast Alaska and portions of Southcentral Alaska could support the establishment of I. pacificus populations. Future forecasts suggest an increase in suitable habitat with considerable uncertainty for many areas of the state. Repeated introductions of this non-native tick to Alaska increase the likelihood that resident populations could become established.

The Original Scientific Description of the Lone Star Tick (Amblyomma americanum, Acari: Ixodidae) and Implications for the Species' Past and Future Geographic Distributions

Amblyomma americanum L. is an important vector in North America originally described by Linnaeus based on Pehr Kalm's 1754 report. While Kalm's 'Travels into North America' is well known, his 1754 report remains obscure. Some authors were skeptical that Kalm referred to A. americanum because he encountered them at sites farther north outside of the species' range. However, the details in 1754 report leave no doubt that Kalm described lone star ticks. In this historical review, we provide support for Kalm's identification using a modern translation of his 1754 report and other sources. We also delineate distributional changes of lone star ticks from the pre-colonization era to the present and interpret them in the context of large-scale anthropogenic changes in the landscape. In this framework, the lone star tick's current northward expansion is a recolonization of their former range. Extensive deforestation and extirpation of their principal host species, white-tailed deer, led to A. americanum's disappearance from the northern parts of its range by the 20th century. Subsequent recolonization by second-growth forest and increases in white-tailed deer populations by the mid-20th century is now allowing A. americanum to reclaim its former range. These changes in the land appear to be the driving force behind A. americanum's present expansion. Understanding this species' history and the factors contributing to its current expansion will enable better predictions about its future distribution and potential to transmit human pathogens.

Ecology of Ixodes pacificus Ticks and Associated Pathogens in the Western United States

Lyme disease is the most important vector-borne disease in the United States and is increasing in incidence and geographic range. In the Pacific west, the western black-legged tick, Ixodes pacificus Cooley and Kohls, 1943 is an important vector of the causative agent of Lyme disease, the spirochete, Borrelia burgdorferi. Ixodes pacificus life cycle is expected to be more than a year long, and all three stages (larva, nymph, and adult) overlap in spring. The optimal habitat consists of forest cover, cooler temperatures, and annual precipitation in the range of 200–500 mm. Therefore, the coastal areas of California, Oregon, and Washington are well suited for these ticks. Immature stages commonly parasitize Western fence lizards (Sceloporus occidentalis) and gray squirrels (Sciurus griseus), while adults often feed on deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) and black-tailed deer (Odocoileus h. columbianus). Ixodes pacificus carry several pathogens of human significance, such as Borrelia burgdorferi, Bartonella, and Rickettsiales. These pathogens are maintained in the environment by many hosts, including small mammals, birds, livestock, and domestic animals. Although a great deal of work has been carried out on Ixodes ticks and the pathogens they transmit, understanding I. pacificus ecology outside California still lags. Additionally, the dynamic vector–host–pathogen system means that new factors will continue to arise and shift the epidemiological patterns within specific areas. Here, we review the ecology of I. pacificus and the pathogens this tick is known to carry to identify gaps in our knowledge.

Possible Effects of Climate Change on Ixodid Ticks and the Pathogens They Transmit: Predictions and Observations

The global climate has been changing over the last century due to greenhouse gas emissions and will continue to change over this century, accelerating without effective global efforts to reduce emissions. Ticks and tick-borne diseases (TTBDs) are inherently climate-sensitive due to the sensitivity of tick lifecycles to climate. Key direct climate and weather sensitivities include survival of individual ticks, and the duration of development and host-seeking activity of ticks. These sensitivities mean that in some regions a warming climate may increase tick survival, shorten life-cycles and lengthen the duration of tick activity seasons. Indirect effects of climate change on host communities may, with changes in tick abundance, facilitate enhanced transmission of tick-borne pathogens. High temperatures, and extreme weather events (heat, cold, and flooding) are anticipated with climate change, and these may reduce tick survival and pathogen transmission in some locations. Studies of the possible effects of climate change on TTBDs to date generally project poleward range expansion of geographical ranges (with possible contraction of ranges away from the increasingly hot tropics), upslope elevational range spread in mountainous regions, and increased abundance of ticks in many current endemic regions. However, relatively few studies, using long-term (multi-decade) observations, provide evidence of recent range changes of tick populations that could be attributed to recent climate change. Further integrated 'One Health' observational and modeling studies are needed to detect changes in TTBD occurrence, attribute them to climate change, and to develop predictive models of public- and animal-health needs to plan for TTBD emergence.