Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050

Phenological mismatches mitigate the ecological impact of a biological invader on amphibian communities

Horizon scans have emerged as a valuable tool to anticipate the incoming invasive alien species (IAS) by judging species on their potential impacts. However, little research has been conducted on quantifying actual impacts and assessing causes of species-specific vulnerabilities to particular IAS due to persistent methodological challenges. The underlying interspecific mechanisms driving species-specific vulnerabilities therefore remain poorly understood, even though they can substantially improve the accuracy of risk assessments. Given that interspecific interactions underlying ecological impacts of IAS are often shaped by phenological synchrony, we tested the hypothesis that temporal mismatches in breeding phenology between native species and IAS can mitigate their ecological impacts. Focusing on the invasive American bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus), we combined an environmental DNA (eDNA) quantitative barcoding and metabarcoding survey in Belgium with a global meta-analysis, and integrated citizen-science data on breeding phenology. We examined whether the presence of native amphibian species was negatively related to the presence or abundance of invasive bullfrogs and whether this relationship was affected by their phenological mismatches. The field study revealed a significant negative effect of increasing bullfrog eDNA concentrations on native amphibian species richness and community structure. These observations were shaped by species-specific vulnerabilities to invasive bullfrogs, with late spring- and summer-breeding species being strongly affected, while winter-breeding species remained unaffected. This trend was confirmed by the global meta-analysis. A significant negative relationship was observed between phenological mismatch and the impact of bullfrogs. Specifically, native amphibian species with breeding phenology differing by 6 weeks or less from invasive bullfrogs were more likely to be absent in the presence of bullfrogs than species whose phenology differed by more than 6 weeks with that of bullfrogs. Taken together, we present a novel method based on the combination of aqueous eDNA quantitative barcoding and metabarcoding to quantify the ecological impacts of biological invaders at the community level. We show that phenological mismatches between native and invasive species can be a strong predictor of invasion impact regardless of ecological or methodological context. Therefore, we advocate for the integration of temporal alignment between native and IAS's phenologies into invasion impact frameworks.

Increasing and fluctuating resource availability enhances invasional meltdown

Exotic plant invaders can promote others via direct or indirect facilitation, known as "invasional meltdown." Increased soil nutrients can also promote invaders by increasing their competitive impacts, but how this might affect meltdown is unknown. In a mesocosm experiment, we evaluated how eight exotic plant species and eight Eurasian native species responded individually to increasing densities of the invasive plant Conyza canadensis, while varying the supply and fluctuations of nutrients. We found that increasing density of C. canadensis intensified competitive suppression of natives but intensified facilitation of other exotics. Higher and fluctuating nutrients exacerbated the competitive effects on natives and facilitative effects on exotics. Overall, these results show a pronounced advantage of exotics over native target species with increased relative density of C. canadensis under high nutrient availability and fluctuation. We integrate these results with the observation that exotic species commonly drive increases in soil resources to suggest the Resource-driven Invasional Meltdown and Inhibition of Natives hypothesis in which biotic acceleration of resource availability promotes other exotic species over native species, leading to invasional meltdown.

The Food Source and Gut Bacteria Show Effects on the Invasion of Alien Pests-A Case of Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) (Diptera: Tephritidae)

How alien pests invade new areas has always been a hot topic in invasion biology. The spread of the Bactrocera dorsalis from southern to northern China involved changes in food sources. In this paper, in controlled conditions, we take Bactrocera dorsalis as an example to study how plant host transformation affects gut bacteria by feeding it its favorite host oranges in the south, its favorite host peaches and apples in the north, and feeding it cucumbers as a non-favorite host plant, thereby further affecting their fitness during invasion. The result showed that, after three generations of feeding on cucumbers, Bactrocera dorsalis took longer to develop as a larva while its longevity and fecundity decreased and pre-adult mortality increased. Feeding it cucumbers significantly reduced the overall diversity of gut microbiota of Bactrocera dorsalis. The relative abundance of Enterobacter necessary for survival decreased, while the Empedobacter and Enterococcus increased, resulting in decreased carbohydrate transport and metabolism and increased lipid transport and metabolism. Feeding Bactrocera dorsalis Empedobacter brevis and Enterococcus faecalis resulted in a 26% increase in pre-adult mortality and a 2-3 d increase in adult preoviposition period (APOP). Additionally, Enterococcus faecalis decreased the longevity of female and male adults by 17 and 12 d, respectively, and decreased fecundity by 11%. We inferred that the shifted plant hosts played an important role in posing serious harm to Bactrocera dorsalis invading from the south to the north. Therefore, after an invasion of Bactrocera dorsalis into northern China, it is difficult to colonize cucumbers for a long time, but there is still a risk of short-term harm. The findings of this study have established that the interactions between an insect's food source and gut bacteria may have an important effect on insect invasions.

Forecasting potential invaders to prevent future biological invasions worldwide

The ever-increasing and expanding globalisation of trade and transport underpins the escalating global problem of biological invasions. Developing biosecurity infrastructures is crucial to anticipate and prevent the transport and introduction of invasive alien species. Still, robust and defensible forecasts of potential invaders are rare, especially for species without known invasion history. Here, we aim to support decision-making by developing a quantitative invasion risk assessment tool based on invasion syndromes (i.e., generalising typical attributes of invasive alien species). We implemented a workflow based on 'Multiple Imputation with Chain Equation' to estimate invasion syndromes from imputed datasets of species' life-history and ecological traits and macroecological patterns. Importantly, our models disentangle the factors explaining (i) transport and introduction and (ii) establishment. We showcase our tool by modelling the invasion syndromes of 466 amphibians and reptile species with invasion history. Then, we project these models to amphibians and reptiles worldwide (16,236 species [c.76% global coverage]) to identify species with a risk of being unintentionally transported and introduced, and risk of establishing alien populations. Our invasion syndrome models showed high predictive accuracy with a good balance between specificity and generality. Unintentionally transported and introduced species tend to be common and thrive well in human-disturbed habitats. In contrast, those with established alien populations tend to be large-sized, are habitat generalists, thrive well in human-disturbed habitats, and have large native geographic ranges. We forecast that 160 amphibians and reptiles without known invasion history could be unintentionally transported and introduced in the future. Among them, 57 species have a high risk of establishing alien populations. Our reliable, reproducible, transferable, statistically robust and scientifically defensible quantitative invasion risk assessment tool is a significant new addition to the suite of decision-support tools needed for developing a future-proof preventative biosecurity globally.

Regional invasion history and land use shape the prevalence of non-native species in local assemblages

The ecological impact of non-native species arises from their establishment in local assemblages. However, the rates of non-native spread in new regions and their determinants have not been comprehensively studied. Here, we combined global databases documenting the occurrence of non-native species and residence of non-native birds, mammals, and vascular plants at regional and local scales to describe how the likelihood of non-native occurrence and their proportion in local assemblages relate with their residence time and levels of human usage in different ecosystems. Our findings reveal that local non-native occurrence generally increases with residence time. Colonization is most rapid in croplands and urban areas, while it is slower and variable in natural or semi-natural ecosystems. Notably, non-native occurrence continues to rise even 200 years after introduction, especially for birds and vascular plants, and in other land-use types rather than croplands and urban areas. The impact of residence time on non-native proportions is significant only for mammals. We conclude that the continental exchange of biotas requires considerable time for effects to manifest at the local scale across taxa and land-use types. The unpredictability of future impacts, implied by the slow spread of non-native species, strengthens the call for stronger regulations on the exchange of non-native species to reduce the long-lasting invasion debt looming on ecosystems' future.

Alien emergent aquatic plants develop better ciprofloxacin tolerance and metabolic capacity than one native submerged species

Antibiotic pollution and biological invasion pose significant risks to freshwater biodiversity and ecosystem health. However, few studies have compared the ecological adaptability and ciprofloxacin (CIPR) degradation potential between alien and native macrophytes. We examined growth, physiological response, and CIPR accumulation, translocation and metabolic abilities of two alien plants (Eichhornia crassipes and Myriophyllum aquaticum) and one native submerged species (Vallisneria natans) exposed to CIPR at 0, 1 and 10 mg/L. We found that E. crassipes and M. aquaticum's growth were unaffected by CIPR while V. natans was significantly hindered under the 10 mg/L treatment. CIPR significantly decreased the maximal quantum yield of PSII, actual quantum yield of PSII and relative electron transfer rate in E. crassipes and V. natans but didn't impact these photosynthetic characteristics in M. aquaticum. All the plants can accumulate, translocate and metabolize CIPR. M. aquaticum and E. crassipes in the 10 mg/L treatment group showed greater CIPR accumulation potential than V. natans indicated by higher CIPR contents in their roots. The oxidative cleavage of the piperazine ring acts as a key pathway for these aquatic plants to metabolize CIPR and the metabolites mainly distributed in plant roots. M. aquaticum and E. crassipes showed a higher production of CIPR metabolites compared to V. natans, with M. aquaticum exhibiting the strongest CIPR metabolic ability, as indicated by the most extensive structural breakdown of CIPR and the largest number of potential metabolic pathways. Taken together, alien species outperformed the native species in ecological adaptability, CIPR accumulation and metabolic capacity. These findings may shed light on the successful invasion mechanisms of alien aquatic species under antibiotic pressure and highlight the potential ecological impacts of alien species, particularly M. aquaticum. Additionally, the interaction of antibiotic contamination and invasion might further challenge the native submerged macrophytes and pose greater risks to freshwater ecosystems.

Responses of non-native and native plant species to fluctuations of water availability in a greenhouse experiment

Water availability strongly influences the survival, growth, and reproduction of most terrestrial plant species. Experimental evidence has well documented the effect of changes in total amount of water availability on non-native vs. native plants. However, little is known about how fluctuations in water availability affect these two groups, although more extreme fluctuations in water availability increasingly occur with prolonged drought and extreme precipitation events. Here, we grew seven non-native and seven native plant species individually in the greenhouse. Then, we exposed them to four watering treatments, each treatment with the same total amount of water, but with different divisions: W1 (added water 16 times with 125 mL per time), W2 (8 times, 250 mL per time), W3 (4 times, 500 mL per time), and W4 (2 times, 1000 mL per time). We found that both non-native and native plants produced the most biomass under medium frequency/magnitude watering treatments (W2 and W3). Interestingly, non-native plants produced 34% more biomass with the infrequent, substantial watering treatment (W4) than with frequent, minor watering treatment (W1), whereas native plants showed opposite patterns, producing 26% more biomass with W1 than with W4. Differences in the ratio of root to shoot under few/large and many/small watering treatments of non-native vs. native species probably contributed to their different responses in biomass production. Our results advance the current understanding of the effect of water availability on non-native plants, which are affected not only by changes in amount of water availability but also by fluctuations in water availability. Furthermore, our results indicate that an increased few/large precipitation pattern expected under climate change conditions might further promote non-native plant invasions. Future field experiments with multiple phylogenetically controlled pairs of non-native and native species will be required to enhance our understanding of how water availability fluctuations impact on non-native invasions.

Co-Invasion of Congeneric Invasive Plants Adopts Different Strategies Depending on Their Origins

Plant communities may be co-invaded by invasive plants, sometimes even by congeneric invasive plants (CIPs). Despite the growing understanding of co-invasion in the environment, little is known about how CIP interactions and mechanisms regulate co-invasion. Darwin's naturalisation conundrum predicts that the coexistence of closely related species is difficult due to their structural and behavioural similarities. Nevertheless, communities containing closely related species are more susceptible to being invaded because close relatives may favour similar environments; therefore, this hypothesis should be followed in the co-invasion of CIPs. To explore whether the phylogenetic relatedness and origins of invasive species to CIPs can promote or hinder co-invasion, we conducted a controlled interaction and soil-legacy greenhouse experiment to quantify the growth response of invasive plants and their congeners. We consistently found that CIPs of identical origin were more likely to co-invade compared to CIPs of distinct origins. CIPs of distinct origins exhibited an antagonistic effect on co-invasion by allelopathy. Invasive plant-conditioned soil was more conducive to the growth of CIPs of identical origin than CIPs of distinct origins. Our results revealed the different effects of invader-invader phylogenetic relatedness on co-invader success and impact, suggesting the operation of different mechanisms across co-invasion.

Modeling the current and projected distribution of Brazilian peppertree Schinus terebinthifolia Raddi (Anacardiaceae) in the Americas

Global biodiversity is under substantial threat due to biological invasions, a problem exacerbated by climate change. Such invasions have detrimental effects on the environment, economy, and human health, resulting in significant financial burdens. Recently, understanding these challenges has become a highlighted priority within the scientific community. This study focuses on the evaluation of Schinus terebinthifolia, native to South America, and its invasive spread into North and Central America, which has resulted in wide distribution and considerable impact. The primary objectives of this study include analyzing the potential distribution of the species under current and future climate scenarios, identifying the areas where its climatic niche is changing. Data collection encompassed a vast dataset of over 30,000 occurrence records of this species, from the following databases: (1) The Global Biodiversity Information Facility provided 22,163 records (GBIF), (2) The virtual Herbarium Reflora contributed 1,438 records, and NeoTropTree made available 6,591 records. Following a rigorous filtering process, 992 occurrences were considered for modeling. In this process, we utilized climate data and climate projections, employing various algorithms, with an emphasis on the consensus model methodology. The research results reveal a clear trend of reduced habitat suitability for S. terebinthifolia, especially under scenarios of high global warming. This accentuates the urgency of implementing emission control measures and mitigation strategies. Additionally, the study underscores the crucial importance of continuous monitoring, as well as actions for controlling and restoring affected ecosystems. The significant role played by S. terebinthifolia in both its native and invaded areas highlights the need for comprehensive management approaches. In the face of climate change and biodiversity threats, this study provides insightful observations on the dynamics of biological invasions. Success in addressing these issues relies on close cooperation between the scientific community, policymakers, land managers, and local communities. This collaboration is essential for guiding and conducting conservation and biodiversity management efforts in an ever-evolving world.

Compatibility of Bioinsecticides with Parasitoids for Enhanced Integrated Pest Management of Drosophila suzukii and Tuta absoluta

Drosophila suzukii and Tuta absoluta are successful biological invaders of agroecosystems. Their integrated pest management (IPM) programs involve the release and/or conservation of natural enemies. Among these, Ganaspis kimorum is a major Asian parasitoid of D. suzukii and has been introduced as a classical biological control agent of this pest in Europe and North America, while Necremnus tutae is a key fortuitous parasitoid of T. absoluta in the Mediterranean region. Bioinsecticides represent key alternatives to chemicals for controlling both pests. This study investigated the potential compatibility of both parasitoids with Beauveria bassiana, Bacillus thuringiensis, garlic essential oil (EO), and spinosad, in comparison to two synthetic insecticides, cyantraniliprole and chlorantraniliprole. The results showed that combining each of the tested insecticides with G. kimorum slightly increased pest mortality compared to the insecticide alone. Necremnus tutae had a significant additive effect on host mortality when combined with insecticides. Beauveria bassiana and B. thuringiensis were most compatible with both parasitoid species. Both garlic EO and chlorantraniliprole impaired the survival of immature N. tutae and showed sublethal toxicity on the reproductive and non-reproductive behaviors of N. tutae. Spinosad exhibited high acute toxicity on both juvenile and adult parasitoids of both species. Overall, these findings provide useful insights into insecticide selectivity toward two key parasitoids and offer new knowledge on the potential of combining natural enemies and bioinsecticides for optimized IPM.

Risk Perception: Chemical Stimuli in Predator Detection and Feeding Behaviour of the Invasive Round Goby Neogobius melanostomus

The round goby Neogobius melanostomus is a notoriously invasive fish originating from the Ponto-Caspian region that in recent decades has successfully spread across the globe. One of its primary impacts is direct predation; in addition, when entering new ecosystems, the round goby is likely to become a food resource for many higher native predators. However, little is known either about the indirect effects of predators on the round goby as prey or its feeding behaviour and activity. The non-consumptive effect of the presence of higher native predators presumably plays an important role in mitigating the impact of non-native round gobies as mesopredators on benthic invertebrate communities, especially when both higher- and mesopredators occupy the same habitat. We tested the food consumption probability and gut evacuation rates in round gobies in response to chemical signals from a higher predator, the European eel Anguilla anguilla. Gobies were placed individually in experimental arenas equipped with shelters and exposed to water from a tank in which (a) the higher predator had actively preyed on a heterospecific prey, earthworms Lumbricus sp. (the heterospecific treatment; HS); (b) the higher predator had fed on round gobies (the conspecific treatment; CS); or (c) the water was provided as a control treatment (C). To ensure exposure to the chemical stimuli, this study incorporated the application of skin extracts containing damaged-released alarm cues from the CS treatment; distilled water was used for the remaining treatments. No significant differences were observed in either the food consumption probability or gut evacuation rate in the tested treatments. Despite the lack of reaction to the chemical stimuli, round gobies did exhibit high evacuation rates (R = 0.2323 ± 0.011 h-1; mean ± SE) in which complete gut clearance occurred within 16 h regardless of the applied treatment. This rapid food processing suggests high efficiency and great pressure on resources regardless of the presence or not of a higher predator. These findings hint at the boldness of round gobies, which did not exhibit any pronounced threat sensitivity. This would seem to suggest great efficiency in food processing and a potential competitive advantage over local native species when colonising new ecosystems, irrespective of the presence of native predators. Our study did not detect any non-consumptive effect attributable to the higher predator, given that the feeding activity of the invasive round goby was not altered.

Predicting species invasiveness with genomic data: Is genomic offset related to establishment probability?

Predicting the risk of establishment and spread of populations outside their native range represents a major challenge in evolutionary biology. Various methods have recently been developed to estimate population (mal)adaptation to a new environment with genomic data via so-called Genomic Offset (GO) statistics. These approaches are particularly promising for studying invasive species but have still rarely been used in this context. Here, we evaluated the relationship between GO and the establishment probability of a population in a new environment using both in silico and empirical data. First, we designed invasion simulations to evaluate the ability to predict establishment probability of two GO computation methods (Geometric GO and Gradient Forest) under several conditions. Additionally, we aimed to evaluate the interpretability of absolute Geometric GO values, which theoretically represent the adaptive genetic distance between populations from distinct environments. Second, utilizing public empirical data from the crop pest species Bactrocera tryoni, a fruit fly native from Northern Australia, we computed GO between "source" populations and a diverse range of locations within invaded areas. This practical application of GO within the context of a biological invasion underscores its potential in providing insights and guiding recommendations for future invasion risk assessment. Overall, our results suggest that GO statistics represent good predictors of the establishment probability and may thus inform invasion risk, although the influence of several factors on prediction performance (e.g., propagule pressure or admixture) will need further investigation.

Metabolic scaling of an invasive mussel depends on temperature and chemical cues from an invasive predator

Metabolism drives various biological processes, potentially influencing the ecological success and evolutionary fitness of species. Understanding diverse metabolic rates is fundamental in biology. Mechanisms underlying adaptation to factors like temperature and predation pressure remain unclear. Our study explored the role of temperature and predation pressure in shaping the metabolic scaling of an invasive mussel species (Brachidontes pharaonis). Specifically, we performed laboratory-based experiments to assess the effects of phenotypic plasticity on the metabolic scaling by exposing the mussels to water conditions with and without predator cues from another invasive species (the blue crab, Callinectes sapidus) across various temperature regimes. We found that temperature effects on metabolic scaling of the invasive mussels are mediated by the presence of chemical cues of an invasive predator, the blue crab. Investigating temperature-predator interactions underscores the importance of studying the ecological effects of global warming. Our research advances our understanding of how environmental factors jointly impact physiological processes.

Half of global islands have reached critical area thresholds for undergoing rapid increases in biological invasions

Biological invasions are among the threats to global biodiversity and social sustainability, especially on islands. Identifying the threshold of area at which non-native species begin to increase abruptly is crucial for early prevention strategies. The small-island effect (SIE) was proposed to quantify the nonlinear relationship between native species richness and area but has not yet been applied to non-native species and thus to predict the key breakpoints at which established non-native species start to increase rapidly. Based on an extensive global dataset, including 769 species of non-native birds, mammals, amphibians and reptiles established on 4277 islands across 54 archipelagos, we detected a high prevalence of SIEs across 66.7% of archipelagos. Approximately 50% of islands have reached the threshold area and thus may be undergoing a rapid increase in biological invasions. SIEs were more likely to occur in those archipelagos with more non-native species introduction events, more established historical non-native species, lower habitat diversity and larger archipelago area range. Our findings may have important implications not only for targeted surveillance of biological invasions on global islands but also for predicting the responses of both non-native and native species to ongoing habitat fragmentation under sustained land-use modification and climate change.

Niche conservatism and spread explain introgression between native and invasive fish

Hybridisation can be an important driver of evolutionary change, but hybridisation with invasive species can have adverse effects on native biodiversity. While hybridisation has been documented across taxa, there is limited understanding of ecological factors promoting patterns of hybridisation and the spatial distribution of hybrid individuals. We combined the results of ecological niche modelling (ENM) and restriction site-associated DNA sequencing to test theories of niche conservatism and biotic resistance on the success of invasion, admixture, and extent of introgression between native and non-native fishes. We related Maxent predictions of habitat suitability based on the native ranges of invasive Eastern Banded Killifish (Fundulus diaphanus diaphanus Lesueur 1817) and native Western Banded Killifish (Fundulus diaphanus menona Jordan and Copeland 1877) to admixture indices of individual Banded Killifish. We found that Eastern Banded Killifish predominated at sites predicted as suitable from their ENM, consistent with niche conservatism. Admixed individuals were more common as Eastern Banded Killifish habitat suitability declined. We also found that Eastern Banded Killifish were most common at sites closest to the presumed source of this invasion, whereas the proportion of admixed individuals increased with distance from the source of invasion. Lastly, we found little evidence that habitat suitability for Western Banded Killifish provides biotic resistance from either displacement by, or admixture with, invasive Eastern Banded Killifish. Our study demonstrates that ENMs can inform conservation-relevant outcomes between native and invasive taxa while emphasising the importance of protecting isolated Western Banded Killifish populations from invasive conspecifics.

Alien plant species distribution in Romania: a nationwide survey following the implementation of the EU Regulation on Invasive Alien Species

Background

Biological invasions pose an increasing risk to nature, social security and the economy, being ranked amongst the top five threats to biodiversity. Managing alien and invasive species is a priority for the European Union, as outlined in the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 and the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. Alien plant species are acknowledged to impact the economy and biodiversity; thus, analysing the distribution of such species provides valuable inputs for the management and decision-making processes. The database presented in the current study is the first consolidated checklist of alien plant species that are present in Romania, both of European Union concern and of national interest. This database complements a prior published distribution, based only on records from literature, bringing new information regarding the occurrence of alien plants in Romania, as revealed by a nationwide field survey. We consider this database a valuable instrument for managing biological invasions at both national and regional levels, as it can be utilised in further research studies and in drafting management and action plans, assisting stakeholders in making informed decisions and implementing management actions.

New information

We present the results of the first nationwide survey of alien plant species in Romania, conducted between 2019 and 2022, in the framework of a national project coordinated by the Ministry of Environment, Waters and Forests and the University of Bucharest. The present database complements and updates the database published by Sirbu et. al (2022), which included occurrence records published until 2019. The new database includes 98323 occurrence records for 396 alien plant species in 77 families, with most species belonging to the Asteraceae family. One alien plant species in our database, the black locust Robiniapseudoacacia L., had more than 10,000 occurrence records. The distribution database also includes information on newly-reported invasive alien plant species of European Union concern in Romania (i.e. the floating primrose-willow Ludwigiapeploides (Kunth) P.H.Raven) and documents the presence of plants in 44 additional families compared to Sirbu et al. (2022). Each entry includes information on species taxonomy, location, year, person who recorded and identified the alien plant, geographical coordinates and taxon rank.

Navigating ecological novelty towards planetary stewardship: challenges and opportunities in biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere

Human-induced global changes, including anthropogenic climate change, biotic globalization, trophic downgrading and pervasive land-use intensification, are transforming Earth's biosphere, placing biodiversity and ecosystems at the forefront of unprecedented challenges. The Anthropocene, characterized by the importance of Homo sapiens in shaping the Earth system, necessitates a re-evaluation of our understanding and stewardship of ecosystems. This theme issue delves into the multifaceted challenges posed by the ongoing ecological planetary transformation and explores potential solutions across four key subthemes. Firstly, it investigates the functioning and stewardship of emerging novel ecosystems, emphasizing the urgent need to comprehend the dynamics of ecosystems under uncharted conditions. The second subtheme focuses on biodiversity projections under global change, recognizing the necessity of predicting ecological shifts in the Anthropocene. Importantly, the inherent uncertainties and the complexity of ecological responses to environmental stressors pose challenges for societal responses and for accurate projections of ecological change. The RAD framework (resist-accept-direct) is highlighted as a flexible yet nuanced decision-making tool that recognizes the need for adaptive approaches, providing insights for directing and adapting to Anthropocene dynamics while minimizing negative impacts. The imperative to extend our temporal perspective beyond 2100 is emphasized, given the irreversible changes already set in motion. Advancing methods to study ecosystem dynamics under rising biosphere novelty is the subject of the third subtheme. The fourth subtheme emphasizes the importance of integrating human perspectives into understanding, forecasting and managing novel ecosystems. Cultural diversity and biological diversity are intertwined, and the evolving relationship between humans and ecosystems offers lessons for future stewardship. Achieving planetary stewardship in the Anthropocene demands collaboration across scales and integration of ecological and societal perspectives, scalable approaches fit to changing, novel ecological conditions, as well as cultural innovation. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Climate as a Predictive Factor for Invasion: Unravelling the Range Dynamics of Carpomya vesuviana Costa

Invasive alien species (IAS) significantly affect global native biodiversity, agriculture, industry, and human health. Carpomya vesuviana Costa, 1854 (Diptera: Tephritidae), a significant global IAS, affects various date species, leading to substantial economic losses and adverse effects on human health and the environment. This study employed biomod2 ensemble models, multivariate environmental similarity surface and most dissimilar variable analyses, and ecological niche dynamics based on environmental and species data to predict the potential distribution of C. vesuviana and explore the environmental variables affecting observed patterns and impacts. Compared to native ranges, ecological niche shifts at invaded sites increased the invasion risk of C. vesuviana globally. The potential geographical distribution was primarily in Asia, Africa, and Australia, with a gradual increase in suitability with time and radiation levels. The potential geographic distribution centre of C. vesuviana is likely to shift poleward between the present and the 2090s. We also show that precipitation is a key factor influencing the likely future distribution of this species. In conclusion, climate change has facilitated the expansion of the geographic range and ecological niche of C. vesuviana, requiring effective transnational management strategies to mitigate its impacts on the natural environment and public health during the Anthropocene. This study aims to assess the potential threat of C. vesuviana to date palms globally through quantitative analytical methods. By modelling and analysing its potential geographic distribution, ecological niche, and environmental similarities, this paper predicts the pest's dispersal potential and possible transfer trends in geographic centres of mass in order to provide prevention and control strategies for the global date palm industry.

Alien range size, habitat breadth, origin location, and domestication of alien species matter to their impact risks

Invasive alien species are a major driver of biodiversity loss. Currently, the process of biological invasions is experiencing a constant acceleration, foreshadowing a future increase in the threat posed by invasive alien species to global biodiversity. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the impact risks of invasive alien species and related factors. Here, we constructed a dataset of negative environmental impact events to evaluate the impact risks of alien species. We collected information on 1071 established alien terrestrial vertebrates and then gathered negative environmental impacts for 108 of those species. Generalized linear mixed-effects model and phylogenetic generalized least-squares regression model were used to examine the characteristic (including life-history traits, characteristics related to distribution, and introduction event characteristics) correlates of species' impact risks at the global scale for 108 established alien terrestrial vertebrates (mammals, birds, reptiles and amphibians). Our results showed that a total of 3158 negative environmental impacts were reported for 108 harmful species across 71 countries worldwide. Factors associated with impact risks varied slightly among taxa, but alien range size, habitat breadth, origin location, and domestication were significantly correlated with impact risks. Our study aims to identify the characteristics of alien species with high-impact risks to facilitate urgent assessment of alien species and to protect the local ecological environment and biodiversity.

Trophic rewilding as a restoration approach under emerging novel biosphere conditions

Rewilding is a restoration approach that aims to promote self-regulating complex ecosystems by restoring non-human ecological processes while reducing human control and pressures. Rewilding is forward-looking in that it aims to enhance functionality for biodiversity, accepting and indeed promoting the dynamic nature of ecosystems, rather than fixating on static composition or structure. Rewilding is thus especially relevant in our epoch of increasingly novel biosphere conditions, driven by strong human-induced global change. Here, we explore this hypothesis in the context of trophic rewilding - the restoration of trophic complexity mediated by wild, large-bodied animals, known as 'megafauna'. This focus reflects the strong ecological impacts of large-bodied animals, their widespread loss during the last 50,000 years and their high diversity and ubiquity in the preceding 50 million years. Restoring abundant, diverse, wild-living megafauna is expected to promote vegetation heterogeneity, seed dispersal, nutrient cycling and biotic microhabitats. These are fundamental drivers of biodiversity and ecosystem function and are likely to gain importance for maintaining a biodiverse biosphere under increasingly novel ecological conditions. Non-native megafauna species may contribute to these effects as ecological surrogates of extinct species or by promoting ecological functionality within novel assemblages. Trophic rewilding has strong upscaling potential via population growth and expansion of wild fauna. It is likely to facilitate biotic adaptation to changing climatic conditions and resilience to ecosystem collapse, and to curb some negative impacts of globalization, notably the dominance of invasive alien plants. Finally, we discuss the complexities of realizing the biodiversity benefits that trophic rewilding offers under novel biosphere conditions in a heavily populated world.

Economic costs of non-native species in Türkiye: A first national synthesis

Biological invasions are increasingly recognised as a major global change that erodes ecosystems, societal well-being, and economies. However, comprehensive analyses of their economic ramifications are missing for most national economies, despite rapidly escalating costs globally. Türkiye is highly vulnerable to biological invasions owing to its extensive transport network and trade connections as well as its unique transcontinental position at the interface of Europe and Asia. This study presents the first analysis of the reported economic costs caused by biological invasions in Türkiye. The InvaCost database which compiles invasive non-native species' monetary costs was used, complemented with cost searches specific to Türkiye, to describe the spatial and taxonomic attributes of costly invasive non-native species, the types of costs, and their temporal trends. The total economic cost attributed to invasive non-native species in Türkiye (from 202 cost reporting documents) amounted to US$ 4.1 billion from 1960 to 2022. However, cost data were only available for 87 out of 872 (10%) non-native species known for Türkiye. Costs were biased towards a few hyper-costly non-native taxa, such as jellyfish, stink bugs, and locusts. Among impacted sectors, agriculture bore the highest total cost, reaching US$ 2.85 billion, followed by the fishery sector with a total cost of US$ 1.20 billion. Management (i.e., control and eradication) costs were, against expectations, substantially higher than reported damage costs (US$ 2.89 billion vs. US$ 28.4 million). Yearly costs incurred by non-native species rose exponentially over time, reaching US$ 504 million per year in 2020-2022 and are predicted to increase further in the next 10 years. A large deficit of cost records compared to other countries was also shown, suggesting a larger monetary underestimate than is typically observed. These findings underscore the need for improved cost recording as well as preventative management strategies to reduce future post-invasion management costs and help inform decisions to manage the economic burdens posed by invasive non-native species. These insights further emphasise the crucial role of standardised data in accurately estimating the costs associated with invasive non-native species for prioritisation and communication purposes.

Biological invasions are a population-level rather than a species-level phenomenon

Biological invasions pose a rapidly expanding threat to the persistence, functioning and service provisioning of ecosystems globally, and to socio-economic interests. The stages of successful invasions are driven by the same mechanism that underlies adaptive changes across species in general-via natural selection on intraspecific variation in traits that influence survival and reproductive performance (i.e., fitness). Surprisingly, however, the rapid progress in the field of invasion science has resulted in a predominance of species-level approaches (such as deny lists), often irrespective of natural selection theory, local adaptation and other population-level processes that govern successful invasions. To address these issues, we analyse non-native species dynamics at the population level by employing a database of European freshwater macroinvertebrate time series, to investigate spreading speed, abundance dynamics and impact assessments among populations. Our findings reveal substantial variability in spreading speed and abundance trends within and between macroinvertebrate species across biogeographic regions, indicating that levels of invasiveness and impact differ markedly. Discrepancies and inconsistencies among species-level risk screenings and real population-level data were also identified, highlighting the inherent challenges in accurately assessing population-level effects through species-level assessments. In recognition of the importance of population-level assessments, we urge a shift in invasive species management frameworks, which should account for the dynamics of different populations and their environmental context. Adopting an adaptive, region-specific and population-focused approach is imperative, considering the diverse ecological contexts and varying degrees of susceptibility. Such an approach could improve and refine risk assessments while promoting mechanistic understandings of risks and impacts, thereby enabling the development of more effective conservation and management strategies.

Priorities for improving predictions of vessel-mediated marine invasions

Nonindigenous marine species are impacting the integrity of marine ecosystems worldwide. The invasion rate is increasing, and vessel traffic, the most significant human-assisted transport pathway for marine organisms, is predicted to double by 2050. The ability to predict the transfer of marine species by international and domestic maritime traffic is needed to develop cost-effective proactive and reactive interventions that minimise introduction, establishment and spread of invasive species. However, despite several decades of research into vessel-mediated species transfers, some important knowledge gaps remain, leading to significant uncertainty in model predictions, often limiting their use in decision making and management planning. In this review, we discuss the sequential ecological process underlying human-assisted biological invasions and adapt it in a marine context. This process includes five successive stages: entrainment, transport, introduction, establishment, and the subsequent spread. We describe the factors that influence an organism's progression through these stages in the context of maritime vessel movements and identify key knowledge gaps that limit our ability to quantify the rate at which organisms successfully pass through these stages. We then highlight research priorities that will address these knowledge gaps and improve our capability to manage biosecurity risks at local, national and international scales. We identified four major data and knowledge gaps: (1) quantitative rates of entrainment of organisms by vessels; (2) the movement patterns of vessel types lacking maritime location devices; (3) quantifying the release (introduction) of organisms as a function of vessel behaviour (e.g. time spent at port); and (4) the influence of a species' life history on establishment success, for a given magnitude of propagule pressure. We discuss these four research priorities and how they can be addressed in collaboration with industry partners and stakeholders to improve our ability to predict and manage vessel-mediated biosecurity risks over the coming decades.

Increasing spread rates of tropical non-native macrophytes in the Mediterranean Sea

Warming as well as species introductions have increased over the past centuries, however a link between cause and effect of these two phenomena is still unclear. Here we use distribution records (1813-2023) to reconstruct the invasion histories of marine non-native macrophytes, macroalgae and seagrasses, in the Mediterranean Sea. We defined expansion as the maximum linear rate of spread (km year-1) and the accumulation of occupied grid cells (50 km2) over time and analyzed the relation between expansion rates and the species' thermal conditions at its native distribution range. Our database revealed a marked increase in the introductions and spread rates of non-native macrophytes in the Mediterranean Sea since the 1960s, notably intensifying after the 1990s. During the beginning of this century species velocity of invasion has increased to 26 ± 9 km2 year-1, with an acceleration in the velocity of invasion of tropical/subtropical species, exceeding those of temperate and cosmopolitan macrophytes. The highest spread rates since then were observed in macrophytes coming from native regions with minimum SSTs two to three degrees warmer than in the Mediterranean Sea. In addition, most non-native macrophytes in the Mediterranean (>80%) do not exceed the maximum temperature of their range of origin, whereas approximately half of the species are exposed to lower minimum SST in the Mediterranean than in their native range. This indicates that tropical/subtropical macrophytes might be able to expand as they are not limited by the colder Mediterranean SST due to the plasticity of their lower thermal limit. These results suggest that future warming will increase the thermal habitat available for thermophilic species in the Mediterranean Sea and continue to favor their expansion.

Assessing Alien Plant Invasions in Urban Environments: A Case Study of Tshwane University of Technology and Implications for Biodiversity Conservation

Preserving the dwindling native biodiversity in urban settings poses escalating challenges due to the confinement of remaining natural areas to isolated and diminutive patches. Remarkably scarce research has scrutinised the involvement of institutions, particularly universities, in introducing alien plant species in South Africa, thus creating a significant gap in effective monitoring and management. In this study, the Tshwane University of Technology in Tshwane Metropole, South Africa serves as a focal point, where we conducted a comprehensive survey of alien plants both within the university premises and beyond its confines. The investigation involved the classification of invasion status and a meticulous assessment of donor and recipient dynamics. Our findings encompass 876 occurrence records, revealing the presence of 94 alien plant species spanning 44 distinct families. Noteworthy occurrences among the dominant plant families are Asteraceae and Solanaceae. Herbaceous and woody plants emerged as the most prevalent alien species, with common representation across both sampling sites. A substantial majority of recorded species were initially introduced for horticultural purposes (51%) before escaping and establishing self-sustaining populations (62%). Furthermore, 43 species identified are listed in South African invasive species legislation, with some manifesting invasive tendencies and altering the distribution of native species in the remaining natural areas. The notable overlap in species observed between the university premises and adjacent areas provides crucial insights into the influence of institutions on the dynamics of plant invasions within the urban landscape. This underscores the prevailing gaps in the management of invasive alien plants in urban zones and accentuates the imperative of an integrated approach involving collaboration between municipalities and diverse institutions for effective invasive species management in urban environments.

Capacity and establishment rules govern the number of nonnative species in communities of ground-dwelling invertebrates

Nonnative species are a key agent of global change. However, nonnative invertebrates remain understudied at the community scales where they are most likely to drive local extirpations. We use the North American NEON pitfall trapping network to document the number of nonnative species from 51 invertebrate communities, testing four classes of drivers. We sequenced samples using the eDNA from the sample's storage ethanol. We used AICc informed regression to evaluate how native species richness, productivity, habitat, temperature, and human population density and vehicular traffic account for continent-wide variation in the number of nonnative species in a local community. The percentage of nonnatives varied 3-fold among habitat types and over 10-fold (0%-14%) overall. We found evidence for two types of constraints on nonnative diversity. Consistent with Capacity rules (i.e., how the number of niches and individuals reflect the number of species an ecosystem can support) nonnatives increased with existing native species richness and ecosystem productivity. Consistent with Establishment Rules (i.e., how the dispersal rate of nonnative propagules and the number of open sites limits nonnative species richness) nonnatives increased with automobile traffic-a measure of human-generated propagule pressure-and were twice as common in pastures than native grasslands. After accounting for drivers associated with a community's ability to support native species (native species richness and productivity), nonnatives are more common in communities that are regularly seasonally disturbed (pastures and, potentially deciduous forests) and those experiencing more vehicular traffic. These baseline values across the US North America will allow NEON's monitoring mission to document how anthropogenic change-from disturbance to propagule transport, from temperature to trends in local extinction-further shape biotic homogenization.

Economic impact disharmony in global biological invasions

A dominant syndrome of the Anthropocene is the rapid worldwide spread of invasive species with devastating environmental and socio-economic impacts. However, the dynamics underlying the impacts of biological invasions remain contested. A hypothesis posits that the richness of impactful invasive species increases proportionally with the richness of non-native species more generally. A competing hypothesis suggests that certain species features disproportionately enhance the chances of non-native species becoming impactful, causing invasive species to arise disproportionately relative to the numbers of non-native species. We test whether invasive species with reported monetary costs reflect global numbers of established non-native species among phyla, classes, and families. Our results reveal that numbers of invasive species with economic costs largely reflect non-native species richness among taxa (i.e., in 96 % of families). However, a few costly taxa were over- and under-represented, and their composition differed among environments and regions. Chordates, nematodes, and pathogenic groups tended to be the most over-represented phyla with reported monetary costs, with mammals, insects, fungi, roundworms, and medically-important microorganisms being over-represented classes. Numbers of costly invasive species increased significantly with non-native richness per taxon, while monetary cost magnitudes at the family level were also significantly related to costly invasive species richness. Costs were biased towards a few 'hyper-costly' taxa (such as termites, mosquitoes, cats, weevils, rodents, ants, and asters). Ordination analysis revealed significant dissimilarity between non-native and costly invasive taxon assemblages. These results highlight taxonomic groups which harbour disproportionately high numbers of costly invasive species and monetary cost magnitudes. Collectively, our findings support prevention of arrival and containment of spread of non-native species as a whole through effective strategies for mitigation of the rapidly amplifying impacts of invasive species. Yet, the hyper- costly taxa identified here should receive greater focus from managers to reduce impacts of current invasive species.

Nuanced impacts of the invasive aquatic plant Crassula helmsii on Northwest European freshwater macroinvertebrate assemblages

Invasive alien species are considered one of the greatest threats to global biodiversity, and are particularly problematic in aquatic systems. Given the foundational role of macrophytes in most freshwaters, alien aquatic plant invasions may drive strong bottom-up impacts on recipient biota. Crassula helmsii (New Zealand pygmyweed) is an Australasian macrophyte, now widespread in northwest Europe. Crassula helmsii rapidly invades small lentic waterbodies, where it is generally considered a serious threat to native biodiversity. The precise ecological impacts of this invasion remain poorly understood, however, particularly with respect to macroinvertebrates, which comprise the bulk of freshwater faunal biodiversity. We conducted a field study of ponds, ditches and small lakes across the core of C. helmsii's invasive range (United Kingdom, Belgium and the Netherlands), finding that invaded sites had higher macroinvertebrate taxon richness than uninvaded sites, and that many infrequent and rare macroinvertebrates co-occurred with C. helmsii. Alien macroinvertebrates were more abundant in C. helmsii sites, however, particularly the North American amphipod Crangonyx pseudogracilis. At the order level, water beetle (Coleoptera) richness and abundance were higher in C. helmsii sites, whereas true fly (Diptera) abundance was higher in uninvaded sites. Taxonomic and functional assemblage composition were both impacted by invasion, largely in relation to taxa and traits associated with detritivory, suggesting that the impacts of C. helmsii on macroinvertebrates are partly mediated by the availability and palatability of its detritus. The nuanced effects of C. helmsii on macroinvertebrates found here should encourage further quantitative research on the impacts of this invasive plant, and perhaps prompt a more balanced re-evaluation of its effects on native aquatic macrofauna.

Plant invasion and naturalization are influenced by genome size, ecology and economic use globally

Human factors and plant characteristics are important drivers of plant invasions, which threaten ecosystem integrity, biodiversity and human well-being. However, while previous studies often examined a limited number of factors or focused on a specific invasion stage (e.g., naturalization) for specific regions, a multi-factor and multi-stage analysis at the global scale is lacking. Here, we employ a multi-level framework to investigate the interplay between plant characteristics (genome size, Grime's adaptive CSR-strategies and native range size) and economic use and how these factors collectively affect plant naturalization and invasion success worldwide. While our findings derived from structural equation models highlight the substantial contribution of human assistance in both the naturalization and spread of invasive plants, we also uncovered the pivotal role of species' adaptive strategies among the factors studied, and the significantly varying influence of these factors across invasion stages. We further revealed that the effects of genome size on plant invasions were partially mediated by species adaptive strategies and native range size. Our study provides insights into the complex and dynamic process of plant invasions and identifies its key drivers worldwide.

Contrasting impacts of non-native and threatened species on morphological, life history, and phylogenetic diversity in bird assemblages

Human activities have altered the species composition of assemblages through introductions and extinctions, but it remains unclear how those changes can affect the different facets of biodiversity. Here we assessed the impact of changes in species composition on taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity across 281 bird assemblages worldwide. To provide a more nuanced understanding of functional diversity, we distinguished morphological from life-history traits. We showed that shifts in species composition could trigger a global decline in avian biodiversity due to the high number of potential extinctions. Moreover, these extinctions were not random but unique in terms of function and phylogeny at the regional level. Our findings demonstrated that non-native species cannot compensate for these losses, as they are both morphologically and phylogenetically close to the native fauna. In the context of the ongoing biodiversity crisis, such alterations in the functional and phylogenetic structure of bird assemblages could heighten ecosystem vulnerability.

Increased invasion of submerged macrophytes makes native species more susceptible to eutrophication in freshwater ecosystems

Invasion and eutrophication are considered to pose serious threats to freshwater biodiversity and ecosystem function. However, little is known about the synergistic effects of invasion density and nutrient concentration on native submerged macrophytes. Here, we selected a common invasive species (Elodea nuttallii) and two native plants (Hydrilla verticillata and Potamogeton maackianus) to elucidate the effects of invasion density and eutrophication on native submerged plants. We found that (1) high nutrient concentrations inhibited the growth of both invasive and native species, but E. nuttallii, with a wide ecological niche, was more tolerant to eutrophication than the two native species. (2) High invasion density had a remarkable negative effect on the growth of the two native species under the medium and high nutrient concentrations. (3) Medium and high invasion densities of E. nuttallii made native macrophytes more susceptible to eutrophication. (4) The two native macrophytes had species-specific responses to medium and high invasion densities under medium and high nutrient concentrations. Specifically, a high invasion density of E. nuttallii significantly delayed the growth of H. verticillata rather than P. maackianus. Thus, it is necessary to consider the synergistic effects of invasion with eutrophication when assessing invasion in freshwater ecosystems. And our results implied that invasion with eutrophication was a powerful factor determining the results of interspecific competition among submerged macrophytes, which could change the biodiversity, community structure and functions of freshwater ecosystems.

The economic costs of invasive aquatic plants: A global perspective on ecology and management gaps

Safeguarding aquatic ecosystems from invasive species requires a comprehensive understanding and quantification of their impacts, as this information is crucial for developing effective management strategies. In particular, aquatic invasive plants cause profound alterations to aquatic ecosystem composition, structure and productivity. Monetary cost assessments have, however, lacked at large scales for this group. Here, we synthesize the global economic impacts of aquatic and semi-aquatic invasive plants to describe the distributions of these costs across taxa, habitat types, environments, impacted sectors, cost typologies, and geographic regions. We also examine the development of recorded costs over time using linear and non-linear models and infer the geographical gaps of recorded costs by superimposing cost and species distribution data. Between 1975 and 2020, the total cost of aquatic and semi-aquatic invasive plants to the global economy exceeded US$ 32 billion, of which the majority of recorded costs (57 %) was attributable to multiple or unspecified taxa. Submerged plants had $8.4 billion (25.5 %) followed by floating plants $4.7 billion (14.5 %), emergent $684 million (2.1 %) and semi-aquatic $306 million (0.9 %). Recorded costs were disproportionately high towards freshwater ecosystems, which have received the greatest cost research effort compared to marine and brackish systems. Public and social welfare and fisheries were the sectors most affected, while agriculture and health were most underreported. Cost attributed to management (4.8 %; $1.6 billion) represented only a fraction of damages (85.8 %; $28.2 billion). While recorded costs are rising over time, reporting issues e.g., robustness of data, lack of higher taxonomic resolution and geographical gaps likely have led to a dampening of trajectories. In particular, invasive taxa currently occupy regions where monetary cost reports are lacking despite well-known impacts. More robust and timely cost estimates will enhance interpretation of current and future impacts of aquatic invasive plants, assisting the long-term sustainability of our aquatic ecosystems and associated economic activities.

Future changes in key plant traits across Central Europe vary with biogeographical status, woodiness, and habitat type

Many plant traits covary with environmental gradients, reflecting shifts in adaptive strategies and thus informing about potential consequences of future environmental change for vegetation and ecosystem functioning. Yet, the evidence of trait-environment relationships (TERs) remains too heterogeneous for reliable predictions, partially due to insufficient consideration of trait syndromes specific to certain growth forms and habitats. Moreover, it is still unclear whether non-native and native plants' traits align similarly along environmental gradients, limiting our ability to assess the impacts of future plant invasions. Using a Bayesian multilevel modelling framework, we assess TERs for native and non-native woody and herbaceous plants across six broad habitat types in Central Europe at a resolution of c. 130 km2 and use them to project trait change under future environmental change scenarios until 2081-2100. We model TERs between three key plant traits (maximum height, Hmax; specific leaf area, SLA; seed mass, SM) and individual environmental factors (7 climate variables and % urban land cover) and estimate trait change summed across all environmental effects. We also quantify the change in the average trait difference between native and non-native plants. Our models depict multiple TERs, with important differences attributed to biogeographical status and woodiness within and across habitat types. The overall magnitude of trait change is projected to be greater for non-native than native taxa and to increase under more extreme scenarios. Native woody plant assemblages may generally experience a future increase across all three traits, whereas woody non-natives may decline in Hmax and increase in SLA and SM. Herbaceous Hmax is estimated to increase and SLA to decrease in most habitats. The obtained trait projections highlight conditions of competitive advantage of non-native plants over natives and vice versa and can serve as starting points for projecting future changes in ecosystem functions and services.

Population structure and interspecific hybridisation of two invasive blowflies (Diptera: Calliphoridae) following replicated incursions into New Zealand

Rates of biological invasion are increasing globally, with associated negative effects on native biodiversity and ecosystem services. Among other genetic processes, hybridisation can facilitate invasion by producing new combinations of genetic variation that increase adaptive potential and associated population fitness. Yet the role of hybridisation (and resulting gene flow) in biological invasion in invertebrate species is under-studied. Calliphora hilli and Calliphora stygia are blowflies proposed to have invaded New Zealand separately from Australia between 1779 and 1841, and are now widespread throughout the country. Here, we analysed genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), generating genotyping-by-sequencing data for 154 individuals collected from 24 populations across New Zealand and Australia to assess the extent of gene flow and hybridisation occurring within and between these blowflies and to better understand their overall population structure. We found that New Zealand populations of both species had weak genetic structure, suggesting high gene flow and an absence of dispersal limitations across the country. We also found evidence that interspecific hybridisation is occurring in the wild between C. hilli and C. stygia in both the native and invasive ranges, and that intraspecific admixture is occurring among populations at appreciable rates. Collectively, these findings provide new insights into the population structure of these two invasive invertebrates and highlight the potential importance of hybridisation and gene flow in biological invasion.

Body size and trophic position determine the outcomes of species invasions along temperature and productivity gradients

Species invasions are predicted to increase in frequency with global change, but quantitative predictions of how environmental filters and species traits influence the success and consequences of invasions for local communities are lacking. Here we investigate how invaders alter the structure, diversity and stability regime of simple communities across environmental gradients (habitat productivity, temperature) and community size structure. We simulate all three-species trophic modules (apparent and exploitative competition, trophic chain and intraguild predation). We predict that invasions most often succeed in warm and productive habitats and that successful invaders include smaller competitors, intraguild predators and comparatively small top predators. This suggests that species invasions and global change may facilitate the downsizing of food webs. Furthermore, we show that successful invasions leading to species substitutions rarely alter system stability, while invasions leading to increased diversity can destabilize or stabilize community dynamics depending on the environmental conditions and invader's trophic position.

Vulnerability of protected areas to future climate change, land use modification, and biological invasions in China

Anthropogenic climate change, land use modifications, and alien species invasions are major threats to global biodiversity. Protected areas (PAs) are regarded as the cornerstone of biodiversity conservation, however, few studies have quantified the vulnerability of PAs to these global change factors together. Here, we overlay the risks of climate change, land use change, and alien vertebrate establishment within boundaries of a total of 1020 PAs with different administrative levels in China to quantify their vulnerabilities. Our results show that 56.6% of PAs will face at least one stress factor, and 21 PAs are threatened under the highest risk with three stressors simultaneously. PAs designed for forest conservation in Southwest and South China are most sensitive to the three global change factors. In addition, wildlife and wetland PAs are predicted to mainly experience climate change and high land use anthropogenetic modifications, and many wildlife PAs can also provide suitable habitats for alien vertebrate establishment. Our study highlights the urgent need for proactive conservation and management planning of Chinese PAs by considering different global change factors together.

When a plant invader meets its old enemy abroad: what can be learnt from accidental introductions of biological control agents

Accidental introductions of biological weed control (BWC) agents (i) offer opportunities to assess host use of agents with a potentially broader fundamental host-range than those approved for field release directly in target areas; (ii) urge national authorities to rapidly respond as they may threaten native species or crops, and by this (iii) help advancing post-release studies, a neglected aspect of BWC. Through detailed insights gained from studying the recent accidental introduction of the ragweed leaf beetle Ophraella communa into Europe, we derive suggestions for overcoming barriers to adoption of BWC by re-evaluating the predictive power of pre-release studies and, thus, the presently strict criteria for deciding upon their release that might exclude safe and efficient agents. By using the allergenic weed Ambrosia artemisiifolia and the accidentally introduced BWC agent O. communa as study system, we also hope to raise the awareness of authorities to consider biological control more prominently as a key approach for pest management in the 'One Health' concept, which aims to sustainably balance and optimize the health of people, animals, plants and ecosystems. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Potential sources of time lags in calibrating species distribution models

The Anthropocene is characterized by a rapid pace of environmental change and is causing a multitude of biotic responses, including those that affect the spatial distribution of species. Lagged responses are frequent and species distributions and assemblages are consequently pushed into a disequilibrium state. How the characteristics of environmental change-for example, gradual 'press' disturbances such as rising temperatures due to climate change versus infrequent 'pulse' disturbances such as extreme events-affect the magnitude of responses and the relaxation times of biota has been insufficiently explored. It is also not well understood how widely used approaches to assess or project the responses of species to changing environmental conditions can deal with time lags. It, therefore, remains unclear to what extent time lags in species distributions are accounted for in biodiversity assessments, scenarios and models; this has ramifications for policymaking and conservation science alike. This perspective piece reflects on lagged species responses to environmental change and discusses the potential consequences for species distribution models (SDMs), the tools of choice in biodiversity modelling. We suggest ways to better account for time lags in calibrating these models and to reduce their leverage effects in projections for improved biodiversity science and policy.

Climate match is key to predict range expansion of the world's worst invasive terrestrial vertebrates

Understanding the determinants of the range expansion of invasive alien species is crucial for developing effective prevention and control strategies. Nevertheless, we still lack a global picture of the potential factors influencing the invaded range expansion across taxonomic groups, especially for the world's worst invaders with high ecological and economic impacts. Here, by extensively collecting data on 363 distributional ranges of 19 of world's worst invasive terrestrial vertebrates across 135 invaded administrative jurisdictions, we observed remarkable variations in the range expansion across species and taxonomic groups. After controlling for taxonomic and geographic pseudoreplicates, model averaging analyses based on generalized additive mixed-effect models showed that species in invaded regions having climates more similar to those of their native ranges tended to undergo a larger range expansion. In addition, as proxies of propagule pressure and human-assisted transportation, the number of introduction events and the road network density were also important predictors facilitating the range expansion. Further variance partitioning analyses validated the predominant role of climate match in explaining the range expansion. Our study demonstrated that regions with similar climates to their native ranges could still be prioritized to prevent the spread of invasive species under the sustained global change.

Nitrogen Deposition Amplifies the Legacy Effects of Plant Invasion

The legacy effects of invasive plant species can hinder the recovery of native communities, especially under nitrogen deposition conditions, where invasive species show growth advantages and trigger secondary invasions in controlled areas. Therefore, it is crucial to thoroughly investigate the effects of nitrogen deposition on the legacy effects of plant invasions and their mechanisms. The hypotheses of this study are as follows: (1) Nitrogen deposition amplifies the legacy effects of plant invasion. This phenomenon was investigated by analysing four potential mechanisms covering community system structure, nitrogen metabolism, geochemical cycles, and microbial mechanisms. The results suggest that microorganisms drive plant-soil feedback processes, even regulating or limiting other factors. (2) The impact of nitrogen deposition on the legacy effects of plant invasions may be intensified primarily through enhanced nitrogen metabolism via microbial anaerobes bacteria. Essential insights into invasion ecology and ecological management have been provided by analysing how nitrogen-fixing bacteria improve nitrogen metabolism and establish sustainable methods for controlling invasive plant species. This in-depth study contributes to our better understanding of the lasting effects of plant invasions on ecosystems and provides valuable guidance for future ecological management.

Dynamics of the distribution of invasive alien plants (Asteraceae) in China under climate change

Climate change and biological invasions pose significant threats to the conservation of biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services. With the rapid development of international trade and economy, China has become one of the countries most seriously affected by invasive alien plants (IAPs), especially the Asteraceae IAPs. For this end, we selected occurrence data of 31 Asteraceae IAPs and 33 predictor variables to explore the distribution pattern under current climate using MaxEnt model. Based on future climate data, the changes in distribution dynamics of Asteraceae IAPs were predicted under two time periods (2041-2060 and 2081-2100) and three climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585). The results indicated that the potential distribution of IAPs was mainly in the southeast of China under current climate. Climatic variables, including precipitation of coldest quarter (BIO19), temperature annual range (BIO07) and annual precipitation (BIO12) were the main factors affecting the potential distribution. Besides, human footprint (HFP), population (POP) and soil moisture (SM) also had a great contribution for shaping the distribution pattern. With climate change, the potential distribution of IAPs would shift to the northwest and expand. It would also accelerate the expansion of most Asteraceae IAPs in China. The results of our study can help to understand the dynamics change of distributions of Asteraceae IAPs under climate change in advance so that early strategies can be developed to reduce the risk and influence of biological invasions.

Managing the risk of biological invasions

The large environmental impacts and enormous economic costs caused by biological invasions provide a strong impetus for managing invasion risks. Understanding the factors driving the invasion process and their consequences will raise awareness of invasions among the general public, stakeholders, and policymakers and inform effective management strategies. The identification of priority species and introduction pathways and sites and the development of national capabilities for prevention and preparedness, early detection, monitoring, and rapid response will reduce the impacts of invasive species in terms of effectiveness and cost efficiency.

Distribution and Expansion of Alien Fish Species in the Karun River Basin, Iran

We assessed the distribution of alien fishes in the Karun River Basin, Iran. Fish were collected from 39 sites during the November-December 2018 low-flow period. In total, 39 fish species from nine orders and 14 families were documented. Among these, 10 species were alien to the basin (986 individuals; 15.7%). Four species were the most abundant alien species and primarily in impounded, downstream reaches. Redundancy analysis (RDA) was conducted to identify the extent of changes in alien fish assemblages with environmental parameters. RDA1 and RDA2 accounted for 36.24% and 25.33% of the variation of alien species, respectively. Altitude, depth, electrical conductivity, water temperature, turbidity, dissolved oxygen, and river width were the most significant parameters affecting alien species distributions. We present a dual-pathway cause-and-effect hypothesis proposing that alien fish species presence causes declines in the ecological status of native fish communities. We then explore how human-induced aquatic ecosystem degradation creates opportunities for alien species to invade new ecosystems, further impacting native fish communities. Our study contributes insight into the cause and effect of the presence of alien fish species in the Karun River Basin and emphasizes the urgency of conservation measures to protect this critically endangered watershed.

Emerging threats and opportunities to managed bee species in European agricultural systems: a horizon scan

Managed bee species provide essential pollination services that contribute to food security worldwide. However, managed bees face a diverse array of threats and anticipating these, and potential opportunities to reduce risks, is essential for the sustainable management of pollination services. We conducted a horizon scanning exercise with 20 experts from across Europe to identify emerging threats and opportunities for managed bees in European agricultural systems. An initial 63 issues were identified, and this was shortlisted to 21 issues through the horizon scanning process. These ranged from local landscape-level management to geopolitical issues on a continental and global scale across seven broad themes-Pesticides & pollutants, Technology, Management practices, Predators & parasites, Environmental stressors, Crop modification, and Political & trade influences. While we conducted this horizon scan within a European context, the opportunities and threats identified will likely be relevant to other regions. A renewed research and policy focus, especially on the highest-ranking issues, is required to maximise the value of these opportunities and mitigate threats to maintain sustainable and healthy managed bee pollinators within agricultural systems.

A latitudinal gradient in Darwin's naturalization conundrum at the global scale for flowering plants

Darwin's naturalization conundrum describes two seemingly contradictory hypotheses regarding whether alien species closely or distantly related to native species should be more likely to naturalize in regional floras. Both expectations have accumulated empirical support, and whether such apparent inconsistency can be reconciled at the global scale is unclear. Here, using 219,520 native and 9,531 naturalized alien plant species across 487 globally distributed regions, we found a latitudinal gradient in Darwin's naturalization conundrum. Naturalized alien plant species are more closely related to native species at higher latitudes than they are at lower latitudes, indicating a greater influence of preadaptation in harsher climates. Human landscape modification resulted in even steeper latitudinal clines by selecting aliens distantly related to natives in warmer and drier regions. Our results demonstrate that joint consideration of climatic and anthropogenic conditions is critical to reconciling Darwin's naturalization conundrum.

The challenge of managing threatened invasive species at a continental scale

The European Union's (EU) environmental legislation establishes common measures to prevent the entry and spread of invasive non-native species and to minimize their impacts. However, species that are native to at least one member state but non-native and potentially invasive in others (NPIS) are in limbo because they are neither legally regulated at the EU level nor in most member states. We used the Communication and Information Resource Centre for Administrations, Businesses and Citizens (CIRCABC) raw data on NPIS (317 taxa) to analyze their distribution across the EU and identify which biogeographical regions are the main sources of invasions. We additionally evaluated the conservation challenge posed by NPIS that are threatened within their native ranges. We performed a pairwise analysis summarizing the number of species that are native to a given member state but non-native to another and vice versa. Although distribution patterns of NPIS varied across taxa groups, overall, southern and central EU countries were both donors and recipients of NPIS. Eastern countries were mainly a source, and western and northern countries mostly received NPIS. Around 27% of NPIS were threatened in some of their EU native ranges, which is a challenge for conservation and management because some of them have serious negative effects on European biodiversity, but hitherto remain outside the scope of the EU regulation of invasive non-native species. This highlights an unresolved paradox because efforts to manage species as invasive conflict with efforts to protect them as threatened within the same territory.

Evolutionary imbalance, climate and human history jointly shape the global biogeography of alien plants

Human activities are causing global biotic redistribution, translocating species and providing them with opportunities to establish populations beyond their native ranges. Species originating from certain global regions, however, are disproportionately represented among naturalized aliens. The evolutionary imbalance hypothesis posits that differences in absolute fitness among biogeographic divisions determine outcomes when biotas mix. Here, we compile data from native and alien distributions for nearly the entire global seed plant flora and find that biogeographic conditions predicted to drive evolutionary imbalance act alongside climate and anthropogenic factors to shape flows of successful aliens among regional biotas. Successful aliens tend to originate from large, biodiverse regions that support abundant populations and where species evolve against a diverse backdrop of competitors and enemies. We also reveal that these same native distribution characteristics are shared among the plants that humans select for cultivation and economic use. In addition to influencing species' innate potentials as invaders, we therefore suggest that evolutionary imbalance shapes plants' relationships with humans, impacting which species are translocated beyond their native distributions.

First record of the introduced ladybird beetle, Coccinella undecimpunctata Linnaeus (1758), on South Georgia (sub-Antarctic)

Biological invasions represent a growing threat to islands and their biodiversity across the world. The isolated sub-Antarctic island of South Georgia in the South Atlantic Ocean is a highly protected area that relies on effective biosecurity including prevention, surveillance and eradication to limit the risk of biological invasions. Based on an opportunistic field discovery, we provide the first report of an introduced ladybird beetle on South Georgia. All specimens discovered belong to the Eurasian species Coccinella undecimpunctata Linnaeus (1758) (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae). Tens of individuals of both sexes were discovered at a single location, indicating that the species may already be established on South Georgia. Transport connectivity with this site suggests that the species most likely arrived recently from the Falkland Islands as a stowaway on a ship. We discuss the implications of our discovery for the continued development of South Atlantic biosecurity.

Patterns and drivers of climatic niche dynamics during biological invasions of island-endemic amphibians, reptiles, and birds

Shifts between native and alien climatic niches pose a major challenge for predicting biological invasions. This is particularly true for insular species because geophysical barriers could constrain the realization of their fundamental niches, which may lead to underestimates of their invasion potential. To investigate this idea, we estimated the frequency of shifts between native and alien climatic niches and the magnitude of climatic mismatches using 80,148 alien occurrences of 46 endemic insular amphibian, reptile, and bird species. Then, we assessed the influence of nine potential predictors on climatic mismatches across taxa, based on species' characteristics, native range physical characteristics, and alien range properties. We found that climatic mismatch is common during invasions of endemic insular birds and reptiles: 78.3% and 55.1% of their respective alien records occurred outside of the environmental space of species' native climatic niche. In comparison, climatic mismatch was evident for only 16.2% of the amphibian invasions analyzed. Several predictors significantly explained climatic mismatch, and these varied among taxonomic groups. For amphibians, only native range size was associated with climatic mismatch. For reptiles, the magnitude of climatic mismatch was higher for species with narrow native altitudinal ranges, occurring in topographically complex or less remote islands, as well as for species with larger distances between their native and alien ranges. For birds, climatic mismatch was significantly larger for invasions on continents with higher phylogenetic diversity of the recipient community, and when the invader was more evolutionarily distinct. Our findings highlight that apparently common niche shifts of insular species may jeopardize our ability to forecast their potential invasions using correlative methods based on climatic variables. Also, we show which factors provide additional insights on the actual invasion potential of insular endemic amphibians, reptiles, and birds.

Current stewardship practices in invasion biology limit the value and secondary use of genomic data

Invasive species threaten native biota, putting fragile ecosystems at risk and having a large-scale impact on primary industries. Growing trade networks and the popularity of personal travel make incursions a more frequent risk, one only compounded by global climate change. With increasing publication of whole-genome sequences lies an opportunity for cross-species assessment of invasive potential. However, the degree to which published sequences are accompanied by satisfactory spatiotemporal data is unclear. We assessed the metadata associated with 199 whole-genome assemblies of 89 invasive terrestrial invertebrate species and found that only 38% of these were derived from field-collected samples. Seventy-six assemblies (38%) reported an 'undescribed' sample origin and, while further examination of associated literature closed this gap to 23.6%, an absence of spatial data remained for 47 of the total assemblies. Of the 76 assemblies that were ultimately determined to be field-collected, associated metadata relevant for invasion studies was predominantly lacking: only 35% (27 assemblies) provided granular location data, and 33% (n = 25) lacked sufficient collection date information. Our results support recent calls for standardized metadata in genome sequencing data submissions, highlighting the impact of missing metadata on current research in invasion biology (and likely other fields). Notably, large-scale consortia tended to provide the most complete metadata submissions in our analysis-such cross-institutional collaborations can foster a culture of increased adherence to improved metadata submission standards and a standard of metadata stewardship that enables reuse of genomes in invasion science.