Resilient biotic response to long-term climate change in the Adriatic Sea

Distribution patterns of reef-building corals in the Northwest Pacific and their environmental drivers

Understanding species distribution and the related driving processes is a fundamental issue in ecology. However, incomplete data on reef-building corals in the ecoregions of the South China Sea have hindered a comprehensive understanding of coral distribution patterns and their ecological drivers in the Northwest Pacific (NWP). This study investigated the coral species diversity and distribution patterns in the NWP by collecting species presence/absence data from the South China Sea and compiling an extensive species distribution database for the region, and explored their major environmental drivers. Our NWP coral database included 612 recorded coral species across 15 ecoregions. Of these, 536 coral species were recorded in the South China Sea Oceanic Islands after compilation, confirming the extraordinary coral species diversity in this ecoregion. Coral alpha diversity was found to decrease with increasing latitude in the whole NWP, while the influence of the Kuroshio Current on environmental conditions in its path results in a slower decline in species richness with latitude compared to regions within the South China Sea. Beta-diversity decomposition revealed that nestedness patterns mainly occurred between low and high latitude ecoregions, while communities within similar latitudes exhibited a turnover component, particularly pronounced at high latitudes. The impact of environmental factors on coral assemblage structure outweighed the effects of spatial distance. Temperature, especially winter temperature, and light intensity strongly influenced alpha diversity and beta diversity's nestedness component. Additionally, turbidity and winter temperature variations at high latitudes contributed to the turnover pattern observed among communities in the NWP. These findings elucidate the assembly processes and major environmental drivers shaping different coral communities in the NWP, highlighting the significant role of specific environmental filtering in coral distribution patterns and providing valuable insights for coral species conservation efforts.

Challenges and directions in analytical paleobiology

Over the last 50 years, access to new data and analytical tools has expanded the study of analytical paleobiology, contributing to innovative analyses of biodiversity dynamics over Earth's history. Despite-or even spurred by-this growing availability of resources, analytical paleobiology faces deep-rooted obstacles that stem from the need for more equitable access to data and best practices to guide analyses of the fossil record. Recent progress has been accelerated by a collective push toward more collaborative, interdisciplinary, and open science, especially by early-career researchers. Here, we survey four challenges facing analytical paleobiology from an early-career perspective: (1) accounting for biases when interpreting the fossil record; (2) integrating fossil and modern biodiversity data; (3) building data science skills; and (4) increasing data accessibility and equity. We discuss recent efforts to address each challenge, highlight persisting barriers, and identify tools that have advanced analytical work. Given the inherent linkages between these challenges, we encourage discourse across disciplines to find common solutions. We also affirm the need for systemic changes that reevaluate how we conduct and share paleobiological research.

Improving the relevance of paleontology to climate change policy

Paleontology has provided invaluable basic knowledge on the history of life on Earth. The discipline can also provide substantial knowledge to societal challenges such as climate change. The long-term perspective of climate change impacts on natural systems is both a unique selling point and a major obstacle to becoming more pertinent for policy-relevant bodies like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Repeated experiments on the impacts of climate change without anthropogenic disturbance facilitate the extraction of climate triggers in biodiversity changes. At the same time, the long timescales over which paleontological changes are usually assessed are beyond the scope of policymakers. Based on first-hand experience with the IPCC and a quantitative analysis of its cited literature, we argue that the differences in temporal scope are less of an issue than inappropriate framing and reporting of most paleontological publications. Accepting that some obstacles will remain, paleontology can quickly improve its relevance by targeting climate change impacts more directly and focusing on effect sizes and relevance for projections, particularly on higher-end climate change scenarios.

Global warming generates predictable extinctions of warm- and cold-water marine benthic invertebrates via thermal habitat loss

Anthropogenic global warming is redistributing marine life and may threaten tropical benthic invertebrates with several potential extinction mechanisms. The net impact of climate change on geographical extinction risk nevertheless remains uncertain. Evidence of widespread climate-driven extinctions and of potentially unidentified mechanisms exists in the fossil record. We quantify organism extinction risk across thermal habitats, estimated by paleoclimate reconstructions, over the past 300 million years. Extinction patterns at seven known events of rapid global warming (hyperthermals) differ significantly from typical patterns, resembling those driven by global geometry under simulated global warming. As isotherms move poleward with warming, the interaction between the geometry of the globe and the temperature-latitude relationship causes an uneven loss of thermal habitat and a bimodal latitudinal distribution of extinctions. Genera with thermal optima warmer than ~21°C show raised extinction odds, while extinction odds continually increase for genera with optima below ~11°C. Genera preferring intermediate temperatures generally have no additional extinction risk during hyperthermals, except under extreme conditions as the end-Permian mass extinction. Widespread present-day climate-driven range shifts indicate that occupancy loss is already underway. Given the most-likely projections of modern warming, our model, validated by seven past hyperthermal events, indicates that sustained warming has the potential to annihilate cold-water habitat and its endemic species completely within centuries.