Spatiotemporal influences of climate and humans on muskox range dynamics over multiple millennia

Ecological dynamics of moa extinctions reveal convergent refugia that today harbour flightless birds

Human settlement of islands across the Pacific Ocean was followed by waves of faunal extinctions that occurred so rapidly that their dynamics are difficult to reconstruct in space and time. These extinctions included large, wingless birds called moa that were endemic to New Zealand. Here we reconstructed the range and extinction dynamics of six genetically distinct species of moa across New Zealand at a fine spatiotemporal resolution, using hundreds of thousands of process-explicit simulations of climate-human-moa interactions, which were validated against inferences of occurrence and range contraction from an extensive fossil record. These process-based simulations revealed important interspecific differences in the ecological and demographic attributes of moa and established how these differences influenced likely trajectories of geographic and demographic declines of moa following Polynesian colonization of New Zealand. We show that despite these interspecific differences in extinction dynamics, the spatial patterns of geographic range collapse of moa species were probably similar. It is most likely that the final populations of all moa species persisted in suboptimal habitats in cold, mountainous areas that were generally last and least impacted by people. We find that these refugia for the last populations of moa continue to serve as isolated sanctuaries for New Zealand's remaining flightless birds, providing fresh insights for conserving endemic species in the face of current and future threats.

Future changes in society and climate may strongly shape wild large-herbivore faunas across Europe

Restoring wild communities of large herbivores is critical for the conservation of biodiverse ecosystems, but environmental changes in the twenty-first century could drastically affect the availability of habitats. We projected future habitat dynamics for 18 wild large herbivores in Europe and the relative future potential patterns of species richness and assemblage mean body weight considering four alternative scenarios of socioeconomic development in human society and greenhouse gas emissions (SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP3-RCP7.0, SSP5-RCP8.5). Under SSP1-RCP2.6, corresponding to a transition towards sustainable development, we found stable habitat suitability for most species and overall stable assemblage mean body weight compared to the present, with an average increase in species richness (in 2100: 3.03 ± 1.55 compared to today's 2.25 ± 1.31 species/area). The other scenarios are generally unfavourable for the conservation of wild large herbivores, although under the SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario there would be increase in species richness and assemblage mean body weight in some southern regions (e.g. + 62.86 kg mean body weight in Balkans/Greece). Our results suggest that a shift towards a sustainable socioeconomic development would overall provide the best prospect of our maintaining or even increasing the diversity of wild herbivore assemblages in Europe, thereby promoting trophic complexity and the potential to restore functioning and self-regulating ecosystems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

The Neanderthal niche space of Western Eurasia 145 ka to 30 ka ago

Neanderthals occupied Western Eurasia between 350 ka and 40 ka ago, during the climatically volatile Pleistocene. A key issue is to what extent Neanderthal populations expanded into areas of Western Eurasia and what conditions facilitated such range expansions. The range extent of Neanderthals is generally based on the distribution of Neanderthal material, but the land-altering nature of glacial periods has erased much of the already sparse material evidence of Neanderthals, particularly in the northern latitudes. To overcome this obstacle species distribution models can estimate past distributions of Neanderthals, however, most implementations are generally constrained spatially and temporally and may be artificially truncating the Neanderthal niche space. Using dated contexts from Neanderthal sites from across Western Eurasia, millennial-scale paleoclimate reconstructions, and a spatiotemporal species distribution model, we infer the fundamental climatic niche space of Neanderthals and estimate the extent of Neanderthal occupation. We find that (a.) despite the long timeframe, Neanderthals occupy a relatively narrow fundamental climatic niche space, (b.) the estimated projected potential Neanderthal niche space suggests a larger geographic range than the material record suggests, and (c.) that there was a general decline in the size of the projected potential Neanderthal niche from 145 ka ago onward, possibly contributing to their extinction.

Reconstructing colonization dynamics to establish how human activities transformed island biodiversity

Drivers and dynamics of initial human migrations across individual islands and archipelagos are poorly understood, hampering assessments of subsequent modification of island biodiversity. We developed and tested a new statistical-simulation approach for reconstructing the pattern and pace of human migration across islands at high spatiotemporal resolutions. Using Polynesian colonisation of New Zealand as an example, we show that process-explicit models, informed by archaeological records and spatiotemporal reconstructions of past climates and environments, can provide new and important insights into the patterns and mechanisms of arrival and establishment of people on islands. We find that colonisation of New Zealand required there to have been a single founding population of approximately 500 people, arriving between 1233 and 1257 AD, settling multiple areas, and expanding rapidly over both North and South Islands. These verified spatiotemporal reconstructions of colonisation dynamics provide new opportunities to explore more extensively the potential ecological impacts of human colonisation on New Zealand's native biota and ecosystems.

Population genomics of the muskox' resilience in the near absence of genetic variation

Genomic studies of species threatened by extinction are providing crucial information about evolutionary mechanisms and genetic consequences of population declines and bottlenecks. However, to understand how species avoid the extinction vortex, insights can be drawn by studying species that thrive despite past declines. Here, we studied the population genomics of the muskox (Ovibos moschatus), an Ice Age relict that was at the brink of extinction for thousands of years at the end of the Pleistocene yet appears to be thriving today. We analysed 108 whole genomes, including present-day individuals representing the current native range of both muskox subspecies, the white-faced and the barren-ground muskox (O. moschatus wardi and O. moschatus moschatus) and a ~21,000-year-old ancient individual from Siberia. We found that the muskox' demographic history was profoundly shaped by past climate changes and post-glacial re-colonizations. In particular, the white-faced muskox has the lowest genome-wide heterozygosity recorded in an ungulate. Yet, there is no evidence of inbreeding depression in native muskox populations. We hypothesize that this can be explained by the effect of long-term gradual population declines that allowed for purging of strongly deleterious mutations. This study provides insights into how species with a history of population bottlenecks, small population sizes and low genetic diversity survive against all odds.

Millennial processes of population decline, range contraction and near extinction of the European bison

European bison (Bison bonasus) were widespread throughout Europe during the late Pleistocene. However, the contributions of environmental change and humans to their near extinction have never been resolved. Using process-explicit models, fossils and ancient DNA, we disentangle the combinations of threatening processes that drove population declines and regional extinctions of European bison through space and across time. We show that the population size of European bison declined abruptly at the termination of the Pleistocene in response to rapid environmental change, hunting by humans and their interaction. Human activities prevented populations of European bison from rebounding in the Holocene, despite improved environmental conditions. Hunting caused range loss in the north and east of its distribution, while land use change was responsible for losses in the west and south. Advances in hunting technologies from 1500 CE were needed to simulate low abundances observed in 1870 CE. While our findings show that humans were an important driver of the extinction of the European bison in the wild, vast areas of its range vanished during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition because of post-glacial environmental change. These areas of its former range have been climatically unsuitable for millennia and should not be considered in reintroduction efforts.

Sequential analysis of δ15 N in guard hair suggests late gestation is the most critical period for muskox calf recruitment

RATIONALE

Analysis of stable isotopes in tissue and excreta may provide information about animal diets and their nutritional state. As body condition may have a major influence on reproduction, linking stable isotope values to animal demographic rates may help unravel the drivers behind animal population dynamics.

METHODS

We performed sequential analysis of δ¹⁵ N values in guard hair from 21 muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) from Zackenberg in high arctic Greenland. We were able to reconstruct the dietary history for the population over a 5-year period with contrasting environmental conditions. We examined the linkage between guard hair δ¹⁵ N values in 12 three-month periods and muskox calf recruitment to detect critical periods for muskox reproduction. Finally, we conducted similar analyses of the correlation between environmental conditions (snow depth and air temperature) and calf recruitment.

RESULTS

δ¹⁵ N values exhibited a clear seasonal pattern with high levels in summer and low levels in winter. However, large inter-annual variation was found in winter values, suggesting varying levels of catabolism depending on snow conditions. In particular δ¹⁵ N values during January-March were linked to muskox recruitment rates, with higher values coinciding with lower calf recruitment. δ¹⁵ N values were a better predictor of muskox recruitment rates than environmental conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

Although environmental conditions may ultimately determine the dietary δ¹⁵ N signal in muskox guard hairs, muskox calf recruitment was more strongly correlated with δ¹⁵ N values than ambient snow and temperature. The period January-March, corresponding to late gestation, appears particularly critical for muskox reproduction.

Spatiotemporal influences of climate and humans on muskox range dynamics over multiple millennia

Processes leading to range contractions and population declines of Arctic megafauna during the late Pleistocene and early Holocene are uncertain, with intense debate on the roles of human hunting, climatic change, and their synergy. Obstacles to a resolution have included an overreliance on correlative rather than process-explicit approaches for inferring drivers of distributional and demographic change. Here, we disentangle the ecological mechanisms and threats that were integral in the decline and extinction of the muskox (Ovibos moschatus) in Eurasia and in its expansion in North America using process-explicit macroecological models. The approach integrates modern and fossil occurrence records, ancient DNA, spatiotemporal reconstructions of past climatic change, species-specific population ecology, and the growth and spread of anatomically modern humans. We show that accurately reconstructing inferences of past demographic changes for muskox over the last 21,000 years require high dispersal abilities, large maximum densities, and a small Allee effect. Analyses of validated process-explicit projections indicate that climatic change was the primary driver of muskox distribution shifts and demographic changes across its previously extensive (circumpolar) range, with populations responding negatively to rapid warming events. Regional analyses show that the range collapse and extinction of the muskox in Europe (~13,000 years ago) was likely caused by humans operating in synergy with climatic warming. In Canada and Greenland, climatic change and human activities probably combined to drive recent population sizes. The impact of past climatic change on the range and extinction dynamics of muskox during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition signals a vulnerability of this species to future increased warming. By better establishing the ecological processes that shaped the distribution of the muskox through space and time, we show that process-explicit macroecological models have important applications for the future conservation and management of this iconic species in a warming Arctic.