Modeling how reversal of immune exhaustion elicits cure of chronic hepatitis C after the end of treatment with direct-acting antiviral agents

Modelling HIV-1 control and remission

Remarkable advances are being made in developing interventions for eliciting long-term remission of HIV-1 infection. The success of these interventions will obviate the need for lifelong antiretroviral therapy, the current standard-of-care, and benefit the millions living today with HIV-1. Mathematical modelling has made significant contributions to these efforts. It has helped elucidate the possible mechanistic origins of natural and post-treatment control, deduced potential pathways of the loss of such control, quantified the effects of interventions, and developed frameworks for their rational optimization. Yet, several important questions remain, posing challenges to the translation of these promising interventions. Here, we survey the recent advances in the mathematical modelling of HIV-1 control and remission, highlight their contributions, and discuss potential avenues for future developments.

Dynamical Modeling and Qualitative Analysis of a Delayed Model for CD8 T Cells in Response to Viral Antigens

Although the immune effector CD8 T cells play a crucial role in clearance of viruses, the mechanisms underlying the dynamics of how CD8 T cells respond to viral infection remain largely unexplored. Here, we develop a delayed model that incorporates CD8 T cells and infected cells to investigate the functional role of CD8 T cells in persistent virus infection. Bifurcation analysis reveals that the model has four steady states that can finely divide the progressions of viral infection into four states, and endows the model with bistability that has ability to achieve the switch from one state to another. Furthermore, analytical and numerical methods find that the time delay resulting from incubation period of virus can induce a stable low-infection steady state to be oscillatory, coexisting with a stable high-infection steady state in phase space. In particular, a novel mechanism to achieve the switch between two stable steady states, time-delay-based switch, is proposed, where the initial conditions and other parameters of the model remain unchanged. Moreover, our model predicts that, for a certain range of initial antigen load: 1) under a longer incubation period, the lower the initial antigen load, the easier the virus infection will evolve into severe state; while the higher the initial antigen load, the easier it is for the virus infection to be effectively controlled and 2) only when the incubation period is small, the lower the initial antigen load, the easier it is to effectively control the infection progression. Our results are consistent with multiple experimental observations, which may facilitate the understanding of the dynamical and physiological mechanisms of CD8 T cells in response to viral infections.

Relationship between the inclusion/exclusion criteria and sample size in randomized controlled trials for SARS-CoV-2 entry inhibitors

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic that has been ongoing since 2019 is still ongoing and how to control it is one of the international issues to be addressed. Antiviral drugs that reduce the viral load in terms of reducing the risk of secondary infection are important. For the general control of emerging infectious diseases, establishing an efficient method to evaluate candidate therapeutic agents will lead to a rapid response. We evaluated clinical trial designs for viral entry inhibitors that have the potential to be effective pre-exposure prophylactic drugs in addition to reducing viral load after infection. We used a previously developed simulation of clinical trials based on a mathematical model of within-host viral infection dynamics to evaluate sample sizes in clinical trials of viral entry inhibitors against COVID-19. We assumed four measures as outcomes, namely change in log10-transformed viral load from symptom onset, PCR positive ratio, log10-transformed viral load, and cumulative viral load, and then sample sizes were calculated for drugs with 99 % and 95 % antiviral efficacy. Consistent with previous results, we found that sample sizes could be dramatically reduced for all outcomes used in an analysis by adopting inclusion/exclusion criteria such that only patients in the early post-infection period would be included in a clinical trial. A comparison of sample sizes across outcomes demonstrated an optimal measurement schedule associated with the nature of the outcome measured for the evaluation of drug efficacy. In particular, the sample sizes calculated from the change in viral load and from viral load tended to be small when measurements were taken at earlier time points after treatment initiation. For the cumulative viral load, the sample size was lower than that from the other outcomes when the stricter inclusion/exclusion criteria to include patients whose time since onset is earlier than 2 days was used. We concluded that the design of efficient clinical trials should consider the inclusion/exclusion criteria and measurement schedules, as well as outcome selection based on sample size, personnel and budget needed to conduct the trial, and the importance of the outcome regarding the medical and societal requirements. This study provides insights into clinical trial design for a variety of situations, especially addressing infectious disease prevalence and feasible trial sizes. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on "Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics".

Modulating Immune Response in Viral Infection for Quantitative Forecasts of Drug Efficacy

The antiretroviral drug, the total level of viral production, and the effectiveness of immune responses are the main topics of this review because they are all dynamically interrelated. Immunological and viral processes interact in extremely complex and non-linear ways. For reliable analysis and quantitative forecasts that may be used to follow the immune system and create a disease profile for each patient, mathematical models are helpful in characterizing these non-linear interactions. To increase our ability to treat patients and identify individual differences in disease development, immune response profiling might be useful. Identifying which patients are moving from mild to severe disease would be more beneficial using immune system parameters. Prioritize treatments based on their inability to control the immune response and prevent T cell exhaustion. To increase treatment efficacy and spur additional research in this field, this review intends to provide examples of the effects of modelling immune response in viral infections, as well as the impact of pharmaceuticals on immune response.

Modeling recapitulates the heterogeneous outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection and quantifies the differences in the innate immune and CD8 T-cell responses between patients experiencing mild and severe symptoms

SARS-CoV-2 infection results in highly heterogeneous outcomes, from cure without symptoms to acute respiratory distress and death. Empirical evidence points to the prominent roles of innate immune and CD8 T-cell responses in determining the outcomes. However, how these immune arms act in concert to elicit the outcomes remains unclear. Here, we developed a mathematical model of within-host SARS-CoV-2 infection that incorporates the essential features of the innate immune and CD8 T-cell responses. Remarkably, by varying the strengths and timings of the two immune arms, the model recapitulated the entire spectrum of outcomes realized. Furthermore, model predictions offered plausible explanations of several confounding clinical observations, including the occurrence of multiple peaks in viral load, viral recrudescence after symptom loss, and prolonged viral positivity. We applied the model to analyze published datasets of longitudinal viral load measurements from patients exhibiting diverse outcomes. The model provided excellent fits to the data. The best-fit parameter estimates indicated a nearly 80-fold stronger innate immune response and an over 200-fold more sensitive CD8 T-cell response in patients with mild compared to severe infection. These estimates provide quantitative insights into the likely origins of the dramatic inter-patient variability in the outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection. The insights have implications for interventions aimed at preventing severe disease and for understanding the differences between viral variants.

Advancing therapies for viral infections using mechanistic computational models of the dynamic interplay between the virus and host immune response

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted a need for improved frameworks for drug discovery, repurposing, clinical trial design and therapy optimization and personalization. Mechanistic computational models can play an important role in developing these frameworks. We discuss how mechanistic models, which consider viral entry, replication in target cells, viral spread in the body, immune response, and the complex factors involved in tissue and organ damage and recovery, can clarify the mechanisms of humoral and cellular immune responses to the virus, viral distribution and replication in tissues, the origins of pathogenesis and patient-to-patient heterogeneity in responses. These models are already improving our understanding of the mechanisms of action of antivirals and immune modulators. We discuss how closer collaboration between the experimentalists, clinicians and modelers could result in more predictive models which may guide therapies for viral infections, improving survival and leading to faster and more complete recovery.

In silico dynamics of COVID-19 phenotypes for optimizing clinical management

Understanding the underlying mechanisms of COVID-19 progression and the impact of various pharmaceutical interventions is crucial for the clinical management of the disease. We developed a comprehensive mathematical framework based on the known mechanisms of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, incorporating the renin-angiotensin system and ACE2, which the virus exploits for cellular entry, key elements of the innate and adaptive immune responses, the role of inflammatory cytokines, and the coagulation cascade for thrombus formation. The model predicts the evolution of viral load, immune cells, cytokines, thrombosis, and oxygen saturation based on patient baseline condition and the presence of comorbidities. Model predictions were validated with clinical data from healthy people and COVID-19 patients, and the results were used to gain insight into identified risk factors of disease progression including older age; comorbidities such as obesity, diabetes, and hypertension; and dysregulated immune response. We then simulated treatment with various drug classes to identify optimal therapeutic protocols. We found that the outcome of any treatment depends on the sustained response rate of activated CD8+ T cells and sufficient control of the innate immune response. Furthermore, the best treatment-or combination of treatments-depends on the preinfection health status of the patient. Our mathematical framework provides important insight into SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis and could be used as the basis for personalized, optimal management of COVID-19.

Physical 'strength' of the multi-protein chain connecting immune cells: Does the weakest link limit antibody affinity maturation?: The weakest link in the multi-protein chain facilitating antigen acquisition by B cells in germinal centres limits antibody affinity maturation

The affinities of antibodies (Abs) for their target antigens (Ags) gradually increase in vivo following an infection or vaccination, but reach saturation at values well below those realisable in vitro. This 'affinity ceiling' could in many cases restrict our ability to fight infections and compromise vaccines. What determines the affinity ceiling has been an unresolved question for decades. Here, we argue that it arises from the strength of the chain of protein complexes that is pulled by B cells during the process of Ag acquisition. The affinity ceiling is determined by the strength of the weakest link in the chain. We identify the weakest link and show that the resulting affinity ceiling can explain the Ab affinities realized in vivo, providing a conceptual understanding of Ab affinity maturation. We explore plausible evolutionary underpinnings of the affinity ceiling, examine supporting evidence and alternative hypotheses and discuss implications for vaccination strategies.

Pre-existing resistance in the latent reservoir can compromise VRC01 therapy during chronic HIV-1 infection

Passive immunization with broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) of HIV-1 appears a promising strategy for eliciting long-term HIV-1 remission. When administered concomitantly with the cessation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) to patients with established viremic control, bNAb therapy is expected to prolong remission. Surprisingly, in clinical trials on chronic HIV-1 patients, the bNAb VRC01 failed to prolong remission substantially. Identifying the cause of this failure is important for improving VRC01-based therapies and unraveling potential vulnerabilities of other bNAbs. In the trials, viremia resurged rapidly in most patients despite suppressive VRC01 concentrations in circulation, suggesting that VRC01 resistance was the likely cause of failure. ART swiftly halts viral replication, precluding the development of resistance during ART. If resistance were to emerge post ART, virological breakthrough would have taken longer than without VRC01 therapy. We hypothesized therefore that VRC01-resistant strains must have been formed before ART initiation, survived ART in latently infected cells, and been activated during VRC01 therapy, causing treatment failure. Current assays preclude testing this hypothesis experimentally. We developed a mathematical model based on the hypothesis and challenged it with available clinical data. The model integrated within-host HIV-1 evolution, stochastic latency reactivation, and viral dynamics with multiple-dose VRC01 pharmacokinetics. The model predicted that single but not higher VRC01-resistant mutants would pre-exist in the latent reservoir. We constructed a virtual patient population that parsimoniously recapitulated inter-patient variations. Model predictions with this population quantitatively captured data of VRC01 failure from clinical trials, presenting strong evidence supporting the hypothesis. We attributed VRC01 failure to single-mutant VRC01-resistant proviruses in the latent reservoir triggering viral recrudescence, particularly when VRC01 was at trough levels. Pre-existing resistant proviruses in the latent reservoir may similarly compromise other bNAbs. Our study provides a framework for designing bNAb-based therapeutic protocols that would avert such failure and maximize HIV-1 remission.

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) can control but not eradicate HIV-1. Stopping ART leads to rapid viral resurgence and progressive disease. ART is therefore administered lifelong. Tremendous efforts are ongoing to devise strategies that will enable stopping ART and yet prevent viral resurgence. One such strategy involves the administration of broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) of HIV-1 at the time of stopping ART. This strategy is expected to delay if not prevent viral resurgence. Surprisingly, treatment with VRC01, a potent bNAb, resulted in hardly any improvement in viral remission. In this study, we elucidate the cause of this failure. We hypothesized that VRC01-resistant strains may pre-exist in latently infected cells, which are unaffected by ART. They can thus outlast ART and get reactivated, triggering VRC01 failure. We built a detailed mathematical model based on this hypothesis and showed that it quantitatively captured observations of VRC01 failure in clinical trials on chronic HIV-1 patients. Our study thus identifies a potential vulnerability of bNAbs, namely, bNAb-resistant strains pre-existing in latently infected cells. Our model offers a framework for predicting bNAb-based treatment protocols that would preclude failure due to pre-existing resistance and maximally prolong remission.

Effect of Low Positive End of Treatment Viral Load with Direct-Acting Antiviral Therapy on Sustained Virologic Response

BACKGROUND

Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) are highly effective treatments against hepatitis C virus (HCV), with sustained virologic response (SVR) rates of 93-100% against all genotypes. In most patients, viral load (VL) becomes undetectable four weeks into treatment, but rarely a low positive VL may be observed at the end of treatment (EOT). This study was conducted to determine the effect of low positive EOT VLs with DAA therapies on SVR at 12 and 24 weeks.

METHODS

A retrospective chart review was conducted from January 2014 to December 2018 on 1256 HCV patients of all genotypes (1-6) who had received DAA therapy at two large hepatology referral centers. Baseline demographic data, along with VL at week four, EOT, and SVR12/24 time points were collected for patients that had positive EOT VL. Treatment outcome for any patient with positive EOT VL was noted.

RESULTS

Eight out of 1256 patients treated with varying DAA therapies were observed to have low positive EOT VLs ranging from <15 to 235 IU/mL. One patient had a negative EOT VL, but 23 IU/mL at week four after EOT. All eight patients who had low positive EOT VLs and one patient who had a low positive VL at four weeks after EOT achieved SVR at weeks 12 and 24. One of the eight patients had cirrhosis. The majority of patients were genotype 1a.

CONCLUSION

In the DAA treatment era, low levels of detectable HCV RNA at EOT does not predict treatment failure.

A dynamical motif comprising the interactions between antigens and CD8 T cells may underlie the outcomes of viral infections

Some viral infections culminate in very different outcomes in different individuals. They can be rapidly cleared in some, cause persistent infection in others, and cause mortality from immunopathology in yet others. The conventional view is that the different outcomes arise as a consequence of the complex interactions between a large number of different factors (virus, different immune cells, and cytokines). Here, we identify a simple dynamical motif comprising the essential interactions between antigens and CD8 T cells and posit it as predominantly determining the outcomes. Viral antigen can activate CD8 T cells, which in turn, can kill infected cells. Sustained antigen stimulation, however, can cause CD8 T-cell exhaustion, compromising effector function. Using mathematical modeling, we show that the motif comprising these interactions recapitulates all of the outcomes observed. The motif presents a conceptual framework to understand the variable outcomes of infection. It also explains a number of confounding experimental observations, including the variation in outcomes with the viral inoculum size, the evolutionary advantage of exhaustion in preventing lethal pathology, the ability of natural killer (NK) cells to act as rheostats tuning outcomes, and the role of the innate immune response in the spontaneous clearance of hepatitis C. Interventions that modulate the interactions in the motif may present routes to clear persistent infections or limit immunopathology.

Interferon at the cellular, individual, and population level in hepatitis C virus infection: Its role in the interferon-free treatment era

The advent of powerful direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) has revolutionized the treatment of hepatitis C. DAAs cure nearly all patients with short duration, oral treatments. Significant efforts are now underway to optimize DAA-based treatments. We discuss the potential role of interferon in this optimization. Clinical studies present compelling evidence that DAAs perform better in treatment-naive individuals than in individuals who previously failed treatment with interferon, a surprising correlation because interferon and DAAs are thought to act independently. Recent mathematical models explore a mechanistic hypothesis underlying this correlation. The hypothesis invokes the action of interferon at the cellular, individual, and population levels. Strong interferon responses prevent the productive infection of cells, reduce viral replication, and impede the development of resistance to DAAs in infected individuals and improve cure rates elicited by DAAs in treated populations. The models develop descriptions of these processes, integrate them into a comprehensive framework, and capture clinical data quantitatively, providing a successful test of the hypothesis. Individuals with strong endogenous interferon responses thus present a promising subpopulation for reducing DAA treatment durations. This review discusses the conceptual advances made by the models, highlights the new insights they unravel, and examines their applicability to optimize DAA-based treatments.

Mutational pathway maps and founder effects define the within-host spectrum of hepatitis C virus mutants resistant to drugs

Knowledge of the within-host frequencies of resistance-associated amino acid variants (RAVs) is important to the identification of optimal drug combinations for the treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Multiple RAVs may exist in infected individuals, often below detection limits, at any resistance locus, defining the diversity of accessible resistance pathways. We developed a multiscale mathematical model to estimate the pre-treatment frequencies of the entire spectrum of mutants at chosen loci. Using a codon-level description of amino acids, we performed stochastic simulations of intracellular dynamics with every possible nucleotide variant as the infecting strain and estimated the relative infectivity of each variant and the resulting distribution of variants produced. We employed these quantities in a deterministic multi-strain model of extracellular dynamics and estimated mutant frequencies. Our predictions captured database frequencies of the RAV R155K, resistant to NS3/4A protease inhibitors, presenting a successful test of our formalism. We found that mutational pathway maps, interconnecting all viable mutants, and strong founder effects determined the mutant spectrum. The spectra were vastly different for HCV genotypes 1a and 1b, underlying their differential responses to drugs. Using a fitness landscape determined recently, we estimated that 13 amino acid variants, encoded by 44 codons, exist at the residue 93 of the NS5A protein, illustrating the massive diversity of accessible resistance pathways at specific loci. Accounting for this diversity, which our model enables, would help optimize drug combinations. Our model may be applied to describe the within-host evolution of other flaviviruses and inform vaccine design strategies.

Towards multiscale modeling of the CD8+ T cell response to viral infections

The CD8⁺ T cell response is critical to the control of viral infections. Yet, defining the CD8⁺ T cell response to viral infections quantitatively has been a challenge. Following antigen recognition, which triggers an intracellular signaling cascade, CD8⁺ T cells can differentiate into effector cells, which proliferate rapidly and destroy infected cells. When the infection is cleared, they leave behind memory cells for quick recall following a second challenge. If the infection persists, the cells may become exhausted, retaining minimal control of the infection while preventing severe immunopathology. These activation, proliferation and differentiation processes as well as the mounting of the effector response are intrinsically multiscale and collective phenomena. Remarkable experimental advances in the recent years, especially at the single cell level, have enabled a quantitative characterization of several underlying processes. Simultaneously, sophisticated mathematical models have begun to be constructed that describe these multiscale phenomena, bringing us closer to a comprehensive description of the CD8⁺ T cell response to viral infections. Here, we review the advances made and summarize the challenges and opportunities ahead. This article is categorized under: Analytical and Computational Methods > Computational Methods Biological Mechanisms > Cell Fates Biological Mechanisms > Cell Signaling Models of Systems Properties and Processes > Mechanistic Models.

Modelling how responsiveness to interferon improves interferon-free treatment of hepatitis C virus infection

Direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) for hepatitis C treatment tend to fare better in individuals who are also likely to respond well to interferon-alpha (IFN), a surprising correlation given that DAAs target specific viral proteins whereas IFN triggers a generic antiviral immune response. Here, we posit a causal relationship between IFN-responsiveness and DAA treatment outcome. IFN-responsiveness restricts viral replication, which would prevent the growth of viral variants resistant to DAAs and improve treatment outcome. To test this hypothesis, we developed a multiscale mathematical model integrating IFN-responsiveness at the cellular level, viral kinetics and evolution leading to drug resistance at the individual level, and treatment outcome at the population level. Model predictions quantitatively captured data from over 50 clinical trials demonstrating poorer response to DAAs in previous non-responders to IFN than treatment-naïve individuals, presenting strong evidence supporting the hypothesis. Model predictions additionally described several unexplained clinical observations, viz., the percentages of infected individuals who 1) spontaneously clear HCV, 2) get chronically infected but respond to IFN-based therapy, and 3) fail IFN-based therapy but respond to DAA-based therapy, resulting in a comprehensive understanding of HCV infection and treatment. An implication of the causal relationship is that failure of DAA-based treatments may be averted by adding IFN, a strategy of potential use in settings with limited access to DAAs. A second, wider implication is that individuals with greater IFN-responsiveness would require shorter DAA-based treatment durations, presenting a basis and a promising population for response-guided therapy.