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Garchitorena A, Rasoloharimanana LT, Rakotonanahary RJ, Evans MV, Miller AC, Finnegan KE, Cordier LF, Cowley G, Razafinjato B, Randriamanambintsoa M, Andrianambinina S, Popper SJ, Hotahiene R, Bonds MH, Schoenhals M. Morbidity and mortality burden of COVID-19 in rural Madagascar: results from a longitudinal cohort and nested seroprevalence study. Int J Epidemiol 2023; 52:1745-1755. [PMID: 37793001 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyad135] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2023] [Accepted: 09/18/2023] [Indexed: 10/06/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Three years into the pandemic, there remains significant uncertainty about the true infection and mortality burden of COVID-19 in the World Health Organization Africa region. High quality, population-representative studies in Africa are rare and tend to be conducted in national capitals or large cities, leaving a substantial gap in our understanding of the impact of COVID-19 in rural, low-resource settings. Here, we estimated the spatio-temporal morbidity and mortality burden associated with COVID-19 in a rural health district of Madagascar until the first half of 2021. METHODS We integrated a nested seroprevalence study within a pre-existing longitudinal cohort conducted in a representative sample of 1600 households in Ifanadiana District, Madagascar. Socio-demographic and health information was collected in combination with dried blood spots for about 6500 individuals of all ages, which were analysed to detect IgG and IgM antibodies against four specific proteins of SARS-CoV-2 in a bead-based multiplex immunoassay. We evaluated spatio-temporal patterns in COVID-19 infection history and its associations with several geographic, socio-economic and demographic factors via logistic regressions. RESULTS Eighteen percent of people had been infected by April-June 2021, with seroprevalence increasing with individuals' age. COVID-19 primarily spread along the only paved road and in major towns during the first epidemic wave, subsequently spreading along secondary roads during the second wave to more remote areas. Wealthier individuals and those with occupations such as commerce and formal employment were at higher risk of being infected in the first wave. Adult mortality increased in 2020, particularly for older men for whom it nearly doubled up to nearly 40 deaths per 1000. Less than 10% of mortality in this period would be directly attributed to COVID-19 deaths if known infection fatality ratios are applied to observed seroprevalence in the district. CONCLUSION Our study provides a very granular understanding on COVID-19 transmission and mortality in a rural population of sub-Saharan Africa and suggests that the disease burden in these areas may have been substantially underestimated.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andres Garchitorena
- MIVEGEC, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, Montpellier, France
- Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar
- NGO Pivot, Ifanadiana, Madagascar
| | | | - Rado Jl Rakotonanahary
- NGO Pivot, Ifanadiana, Madagascar
- Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Michelle V Evans
- MIVEGEC, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, Montpellier, France
| | - Ann C Miller
- Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Karen E Finnegan
- NGO Pivot, Ifanadiana, Madagascar
- Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
| | | | | | | | - Marius Randriamanambintsoa
- Direction de la Démographie et des Statistiques Sociales, Institut National de la Statistique, Antananarivo, Madagascar
| | - Samuel Andrianambinina
- Direction de la Démographie et des Statistiques Sociales, Institut National de la Statistique, Antananarivo, Madagascar
| | - Stephen J Popper
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | - Raphaël Hotahiene
- Direction de lutte contre les maladies transmissibles, Ministère de la Santé Publique, Antananarivo, Madagascar
| | - Matthew H Bonds
- NGO Pivot, Ifanadiana, Madagascar
- Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
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Lako RLL, Meagher N, Wamala JF, Ndyahikayo J, Ademe Tegegne A, Olu OO, Price DJ, Rajatonirina S, Farley E, Okeibunor JC, Mize VA. Transmissibility and severity of COVID-19 in a humanitarian setting: First few X investigation of cases and contacts in Juba, South Sudan, 2020. Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2023; 17:e13200. [PMID: 38019703 PMCID: PMC10655784 DOI: 10.1111/irv.13200] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/02/2023] [Revised: 08/07/2023] [Accepted: 08/29/2023] [Indexed: 12/01/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The first few 'X' (FFX) studies provide evidence to guide public health decision-making and resource allocation. The adapted WHO Unity FFX protocol for COVID-19 was implemented to gain an understanding of the clinical, epidemiological, virological and household transmission dynamics of the first cases of COVID-19 infection detected in Juba, South Sudan. METHODS Laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases were identified through the national surveillance system, and an initial visit was conducted with eligible cases to identify all close contacts. Consenting cases and close contacts were enrolled between June 2020 and December 2020. Demographic, clinical information and biological samples were taken at enrollment and 14-21 days post-enrollment for all participants. RESULTS Twenty-nine primary cases and 82 contacts were included in the analyses. Most primary cases (n = 23/29, 79.3%) and contacts (n = 61/82, 74.4%) were male. Many primary cases (n = 18/29, 62.1%) and contacts (n = 51/82, 62.2%) were seropositive for SARS-CoV-2 at baseline. The secondary attack rate among susceptible contacts was 12.9% (4/31; 95% CI: 4.9%-29.7%). All secondary cases and most (72%) primary cases were asymptomatic. Reported symptoms included coughing (n = 6/29, 20.7%), fever or history of fever (n = 4/29, 13.8%), headache (n = 3/29, 10.3%) and shortness of breath (n = 3/29, 10.3%). Of 38 cases, two were hospitalised (5.3%) and one died (2.6%). CONCLUSIONS These findings were used to develop the South Sudanese Ministry of Health surveillance and contract tracing protocols, informing local COVID-19 case definitions, follow-up protocols and data management systems. This investigation demonstrates that rapid FFX implementation is critical in understanding the emerging disease and informing response priorities.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Niamh Meagher
- Department of Infectious DiseasesThe University of Melbourne, at The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and ImmunityMelbourneAustralia
| | | | | | | | | | - David J. Price
- Department of Infectious DiseasesThe University of Melbourne, at The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and ImmunityMelbourneAustralia
- Centre for Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population & Global HealthThe University of MelbourneMelbourneAustralia
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Rakotosamimanana S, Mangahasimbola RT, Ratovoson R, Randremanana RV. Determinants of COVID-19-related knowledge and disrupted habits during epidemic waves among women of childbearing age in urban and rural areas of the Malagasy Middle East. BMC Public Health 2023; 23:1990. [PMID: 37828477 PMCID: PMC10571364 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-16931-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2023] [Accepted: 10/07/2023] [Indexed: 10/14/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND With regard to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in Madagascar, little is known about the knowledge, the perceptions and the impacts of this disease on women of childbearing age. People's knowledge of COVID-19 can have an impact on their attitudes towards seeking care. The aim of the current study is to determine the knowledge of COVID-19 and associated determinants among women of childbearing age in Moramanga. METHODS A cross-sectional study based on questionnaire administration was used among women of childbearing age. Data collection was conducted from August to October 2021. A scoring method was applied to evaluate their knowledge level and perceptions about COVID-19 and its impacts on their lives. A binary stepwise logistic regression was performed to determine the sociodemographic determinants of their knowledge level about COVID-19. RESULTS A total of 885 women of childbearing age from urban and rural Moramanga areas were interviewed. Approximately 49.8% (441/885) lived in urban areas, and 50.2% (444/885) lived in rural areas. Approximately 35.3% (322/885) of the participants had a good level of knowledge of COVID-19. Multivariate analysis showed that the probability of having a good level of knowledge of COVID-19 had a significant statistical association (p value < 0.05) with living in an urban area [AOR: 2.89; 95% CI (1.89-4.42)], telephone ownership [AOR: 1.71; 95% CI (1.16-2.53)], radio ownership [AOR 2.2; 95% CI (1.43-3.38)], watching TV [AOR = 1.95; 95% CI (1.34-2.83)] and reading journal papers [AOR = 3.74 95% CI (1.69-8.27)]. CONCLUSIONS Almost a third of the sampled women of childbearing age had a good level of knowledge of COVID-19. Access to information through telecommunications technologies increases the chances of being better informed about the disease. To avoid the negative repercussions of infectious disease epidemics, it is necessary to improve the awareness of childbearing women about these diseases by taking demographic features of the population into account.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Rila Ratovoson
- Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo 101, Madagascar
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Xu X, Wu Y, Kummer AG, Zhao Y, Hu Z, Wang Y, Liu H, Ajelli M, Yu H. Assessing changes in incubation period, serial interval, and generation time of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: a systematic review and meta-analysis. BMC Med 2023; 21:374. [PMID: 37775772 PMCID: PMC10541713 DOI: 10.1186/s12916-023-03070-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2023] [Accepted: 09/05/2023] [Indexed: 10/01/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND After the first COVID-19 wave caused by the ancestral lineage, the pandemic has been fueled from the continuous emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants. Understanding key time-to-event periods for each emerging variant of concern is critical as it can provide insights into the future trajectory of the virus and help inform outbreak preparedness and response planning. Here, we aim to examine how the incubation period, serial interval, and generation time have changed from the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 lineage to different variants of concern. METHODS We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis that synthesized the estimates of incubation period, serial interval, and generation time (both realized and intrinsic) for the ancestral lineage, Alpha, Beta, and Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2. RESULTS Our study included 280 records obtained from 147 household studies, contact tracing studies, or studies where epidemiological links were known. With each emerging variant, we found a progressive shortening of each of the analyzed key time-to-event periods, although we did not find statistically significant differences between the Omicron subvariants. We found that Omicron BA.1 had the shortest pooled estimates for the incubation period (3.49 days, 95% CI: 3.13-4.86 days), Omicron BA.5 for the serial interval (2.37 days, 95% CI: 1.71-3.04 days), and Omicron BA.1 for the realized generation time (2.99 days, 95% CI: 2.48-3.49 days). Only one estimate for the intrinsic generation time was available for Omicron subvariants: 6.84 days (95% CrI: 5.72-8.60 days) for Omicron BA.1. The ancestral lineage had the highest pooled estimates for each investigated key time-to-event period. We also observed shorter pooled estimates for the serial interval compared to the incubation period across the virus lineages. When pooling the estimates across different virus lineages, we found considerable heterogeneities (I2 > 80%; I2 refers to the percentage of total variation across studies that is due to heterogeneity rather than chance), possibly resulting from heterogeneities between the different study populations (e.g., deployed interventions, social behavior, demographic characteristics). CONCLUSIONS Our study supports the importance of conducting contact tracing and epidemiological investigations to monitor changes in SARS-CoV-2 transmission patterns. Our findings highlight a progressive shortening of the incubation period, serial interval, and generation time, which can lead to epidemics that spread faster, with larger peak incidence, and harder to control. We also consistently found a shorter serial interval than incubation period, suggesting that a key feature of SARS-CoV-2 is the potential for pre-symptomatic transmission. These observations are instrumental to plan for future COVID-19 waves.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiangyanyu Xu
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China
| | - Yanpeng Wu
- Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Allisandra G Kummer
- Laboratory of Computational Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA
| | - Yuchen Zhao
- Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Zexin Hu
- Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Yan Wang
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China
| | - Hengcong Liu
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China
| | - Marco Ajelli
- Laboratory of Computational Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA.
| | - Hongjie Yu
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.
- Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
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Ndiaye MDB, Rasoloharimanana LT, Razafimahatratra SL, Ratovoson R, Rasolofo V, Ranaivomanana P, Raskine L, Hoffmann J, Randremanana R, Rakotosamimanana N, Schoenhals M. Using a multiplex serological assay to estimate time since SARS-CoV-2 infection and past clinical presentation in malagasy patients. Heliyon 2023; 9:e17264. [PMID: 37332901 PMCID: PMC10263216 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e17264] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/23/2022] [Revised: 06/01/2023] [Accepted: 06/12/2023] [Indexed: 06/20/2023] Open
Abstract
Background The world is facing a 2019 coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In this context, efficient serological assays are needed to accurately describe the humoral responses against the virus. These tools could potentially provide temporal and clinical characteristics and are thus paramount in developing-countries lacking sufficient ongoing COVID-19 epidemic descriptions. Methods We developed and validated a Luminex xMAP® multiplex serological assay targeting specific IgM and IgG antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 Spike subunit 1 (S1), Spike subunit 2 (S2), Spike Receptor Binding Domain (RBD) and the Nucleocapsid protein (N). Blood samples collected periodically for 12 months from 43 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 in Madagascar were tested for these antibodies. A random forest algorithm was used to build a predictive model of time since infection and symptom presentation. Findings The performance of the multiplex serological assay was evaluated for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 anti-IgG and anti-IgM antibodies. Both sensitivity and specificity were equal to 100% (89.85-100) for S1, RBD and N (S2 had a lower specificity = 95%) for IgG at day 14 after enrolment. This multiplex assay compared with two commercialized ELISA kits, showed a higher sensitivity. Principal Component Analysis was performed on serologic data to group patients according to time of sample collection and clinical presentations. The random forest algorithm built by this approach predicted symptom presentation and time since infection with an accuracy of 87.1% (95% CI = 70.17-96.37, p-value = 0.0016), and 80% (95% CI = 61.43-92.29, p-value = 0.0001) respectively. Interpretation This study demonstrates that the statistical model predicts time since infection and previous symptom presentation using IgM and IgG response to SARS-CoV2. This tool may be useful for global surveillance, discriminating recent- and past- SARS-CoV-2 infection, and assessing disease severity. Fundings This study was funded by the French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs through the REPAIR COVID-19-Africa project coordinated by the Pasteur International Network association. WANTAI reagents were provided by WHO AFRO as part of a Sero-epidemiological "Unity" Study Grant/Award Number: 2020/1,019,828-0 P·O 202546047 and Initiative 5% grant n°AP-5PC-2018-03-RO.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Rila Ratovoson
- Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar
| | | | | | - Laurent Raskine
- Medical and Scientific Department, Fondation Mérieux, Lyon, France
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Vigan-Womas I, Spadoni JL, Poiret T, Taïeb F, Randrianarisaona F, Faye R, Mbow AA, Gaye A, Dia N, Loucoubar C, Ny Mioramalala DJ, Ratovoson R, Randremanana RV, Sall AA, Seydi M, Noirel J, Moreau G, Simon A, Holenya P, Meyniel JP, Zagury JF, Schoenhals M. Linear epitope mapping of the humoral response against SARS-CoV-2 in two independent African cohorts. Sci Rep 2023; 13:782. [PMID: 36646780 PMCID: PMC9842613 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-27810-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/25/2022] [Accepted: 01/09/2023] [Indexed: 01/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Profiling of the antibody responses to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) proteins in African populations is scarce. Here, we performed a detailed IgM and IgG epitope mapping study against 487 peptides covering SARS-CoV-2 wild-type structural proteins. A panel of 41 pre-pandemic and 82 COVID-19 RT-PCR confirmed sera from Madagascar and Senegal were used. We found that the main 36 immunodominant linear epitopes identified were (i) similar in both countries, (ii) distributed mainly in the Spike and the Nucleocapsid proteins, (iii) located outside the RBD and NTD regions where most of the reported SARS-CoV-2 variant mutations occur, and (iv) identical to those reported in European, North American, and Asian studies. Within the severe group, antibody levels were inversely correlated with the viral load. This first antibody epitope mapping study performed in patients from two African countries may be helpful to guide rational peptide-based diagnostic assays or vaccine development.
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Affiliation(s)
- Inès Vigan-Womas
- Immunophysiopathology and Infectious Diseases Department, Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal.
| | - Jean-Louis Spadoni
- Laboratoire Génomique, Bioinformatique, et Chimie Moléculaire, EA7528, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Hesam Université, Paris, France
| | - Thomas Poiret
- Immunophysiopathology and Infectious Diseases Department, Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal
| | - Fabien Taïeb
- Epidemiology, Clinical Research and Data Science Department, Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal
| | | | - Rokhaya Faye
- Immunophysiopathology and Infectious Diseases Department, Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal
| | - Adji Astou Mbow
- Immunophysiopathology and Infectious Diseases Department, Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal
| | - Aboubacry Gaye
- Epidemiology, Clinical Research and Data Science Department, Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal
| | - Ndongo Dia
- Virology Department, Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal
| | - Cheikh Loucoubar
- Epidemiology, Clinical Research and Data Science Department, Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal
| | | | - Rila Ratovoson
- Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, BP 1274, 101, Antananarivo, Madagascar
| | | | - Amadou Alpha Sall
- Immunophysiopathology and Infectious Diseases Department, Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal
| | - Moussa Seydi
- Service des Maladies Infectieuses et Tropicales, Fann University Hospital Center, Dakar, Senegal
| | - Josselin Noirel
- Laboratoire Génomique, Bioinformatique, et Chimie Moléculaire, EA7528, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Hesam Université, Paris, France
| | - Gabriel Moreau
- Bioinformatics Team, Peptinov, Hôpital Cochin, 27 Rue du Fbg Saint-Jacques, 75014, Paris, France
| | - Arnaud Simon
- Laboratoire Génomique, Bioinformatique, et Chimie Moléculaire, EA7528, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Hesam Université, Paris, France
| | | | - Jean-Philippe Meyniel
- Bioinformatics Department, ISoft, Parc des Algorithmes, Bâtiment Euclide, Route de l'Orme, 91190, Saint-Aubin, France
| | - Jean-François Zagury
- Laboratoire Génomique, Bioinformatique, et Chimie Moléculaire, EA7528, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Hesam Université, Paris, France.
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Wang C, Huang X, Lau EHY, Cowling BJ, Tsang TK. Association Between Population-Level Factors and Household Secondary Attack Rate of SARS-CoV-2: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. Open Forum Infect Dis 2023; 10:ofac676. [PMID: 36655186 PMCID: PMC9835764 DOI: 10.1093/ofid/ofac676] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/02/2022] [Accepted: 12/14/2022] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Accurate estimation of household secondary attack rate (SAR) is crucial to understand the transmissibility of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The impact of population-level factors, such as transmission intensity in the community, on SAR estimates is rarely explored. Methods In this study, we included articles with original data to compute the household SAR. To determine the impact of transmission intensity in the community on household SAR estimates, we explored the association between SAR estimates and the incidence rate of cases by country during the study period. Results We identified 163 studies to extract data on SARs from 326 031 cases and 2 009 859 household contacts. The correlation between the incidence rate of cases during the study period and SAR estimates was 0.37 (95% CI, 0.24-0.49). We found that doubling the incidence rate of cases during the study period was associated with a 1.2% (95% CI, 0.5%-1.8%) higher household SAR. Conclusions Our findings suggest that the incidence rate of cases during the study period is associated with higher SAR. Ignoring this factor may overestimate SARs, especially for regions with high incidences, which further impacts control policies and epidemiological characterization of emerging variants.
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Affiliation(s)
- Can Wang
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Xiaotong Huang
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Eric H Y Lau
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, New Territories, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Benjamin J Cowling
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, New Territories, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Tim K Tsang
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, New Territories, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
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Pelupessy DC, Jibiki Y, Sasaki D. Exploring People's Perception of COVID-19 Risk: A Case Study of Greater Jakarta, Indonesia. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 20:336. [PMID: 36612662 PMCID: PMC9819896 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20010336] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2022] [Revised: 12/19/2022] [Accepted: 12/20/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
This study aims to understand people's perceptions of COVID-19 risk in Greater Jakarta, Indonesia. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Indonesian government enacted a health protocol campaign and highlighted the community as an important unit of protocol compliance. We hypothesized that people's perception of the likelihood of being infected with COVID-19 is associated with health protocol compliance at the community level and their perception of community resilience. As the number of infected persons drastically increased, the "family cluster" also became a significant issue in the pandemic response, especially in Indonesia. In this study, we explored both community and family aspects that influence people's perceptions. We conducted an online survey in March 2021 with 370 respondents residing in the Greater Jakarta area. The respondents were classified into four age groups (20s, 30s, 40s, and 50-and-over), with gender-balanced samples allocated to each group. We used a questionnaire to measure the perception of COVID-19 risk along with the Conjoint Community Resiliency Assessment Measure (CCRAM). Multiple regression analysis revealed that family factors have a much larger influence on the individual perception of the likelihood of contracting COVID-19 than community factors. The results suggest that the link between family-level efforts against COVID-19 and individual-level perceptions cannot be separated in response to the pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dicky C. Pelupessy
- Faculty of Psychology, Universitas Indonesia, Kampus UI Depok, Depok City 16424, West Java, Indonesia
| | - Yasuhito Jibiki
- International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University, 468-1 Aoba Aramaki, Aoba, Sendai 980-8572, Japan
- Center for Integrated Disaster Information Research, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033, Japan
| | - Daisuke Sasaki
- International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University, 468-1 Aoba Aramaki, Aoba, Sendai 980-8572, Japan
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Marcato AJ, Black AJ, Walker CR, Morris D, Meagher N, Price DJ, McVernon J. Learnings from the Australian first few X household transmission project for COVID-19. THE LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. WESTERN PACIFIC 2022; 28:100573. [PMID: 36089928 PMCID: PMC9444248 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2022.100573] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Background First Few "X" (FFX) studies provide a platform to collect the required epidemiological, clinical and virological data to help address emerging information needs about the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods We adapted the WHO FFX protocol for COVID-19 to understand severity and household transmission dynamics in the early stages of the pandemic in Australia. Implementation strategies were developed for participating sites; all household members were followed for 14 days from case identification. Household contacts completed symptom diaries and had multiple respiratory swabs taken irrespective of symptoms. We modelled the spread of COVID-19 within households using a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-type model, and calculated the household secondary attack rate and key epidemiological parameters. Findings 96 households with 101 cases and 286 household contacts were recruited into the study between April-October 2020. Forty household contacts tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 in the study follow-up period. Our model estimated the household secondary attack rate to be 15% (95% CI 8-25%), which scaled up with increasing household size. Our findings suggest children were less infectious than their adult counterparts but were also more susceptible to infection. Interpretation Our study provides important baseline data characterising the transmission of early SARS-CoV-2 strains from children and adults in Australia, against which properties of variants of concern can be benchmarked. We encountered many challenges with respect to logistics, ethics, governance and data management. Continued efforts to invest in preparedness research will help to test, refine and further develop Australian FFX study protocols in advance of future outbreaks. Funding Australian Government Department of Health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adrian J. Marcato
- Department of Infectious Diseases, The University of Melbourne, at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Andrew J. Black
- School of Mathematical Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Camelia R. Walker
- School of Mathematical Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
- School of Mathematics & Statistics, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Dylan Morris
- School of Mathematical Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Niamh Meagher
- Department of Infectious Diseases, The University of Melbourne, at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia
- Centre for Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population & Global Health, The University of Melbourne
| | - David J. Price
- Department of Infectious Diseases, The University of Melbourne, at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia
- Centre for Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population & Global Health, The University of Melbourne
| | - Jodie McVernon
- Department of Infectious Diseases, The University of Melbourne, at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia
- Centre for Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population & Global Health, The University of Melbourne
- Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Melbourne, Australia
| | - the Australian FFX Household Transmission Project Group
- Department of Infectious Diseases, The University of Melbourne, at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia
- School of Mathematical Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
- School of Mathematics & Statistics, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
- Centre for Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population & Global Health, The University of Melbourne
- Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Melbourne, Australia
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10
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Kleynhans J, Walaza S, Martinson NA, Neti M, von Gottberg A, Bhiman JN, Toi D, Amoako DG, Buys A, Ndlangisa K, Wolter N, Genade L, Maloma L, Chewparsad J, Lebina L, de Gouveia L, Kotane R, Tempia S, Cohen C. Household Transmission of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 From Adult Index Cases With and Without Human Immunodeficiency Virus in South Africa, 2020-2021: A Case-Ascertained, Prospective, Observational Household Transmission Study. Clin Infect Dis 2022; 76:e71-e81. [PMID: 35925613 PMCID: PMC9384657 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciac640] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/11/2022] [Revised: 06/27/2022] [Accepted: 08/02/2022] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In South Africa, 19% of adults are living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; LWH). Few data on the influence of HIV on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) household transmission are available. METHODS We performed a case-ascertained, prospective household transmission study of symptomatic adult index SARS-CoV-2 cases LWH and not living with HIV (NLWH) and their contacts from October 2020 to September 2021. Households were followed up 3 times a week for 6 weeks to collect nasal swabs for SARS-CoV-2 testing. We estimated household cumulative infection risk (HCIR) and duration of SARS-CoV-2 positivity (at a cycle threshold value <30 as proxy for high viral load). RESULTS HCIR was 59% (220 of 373), not differing by index HIV status (60% LWH vs 58% NLWH). HCIR increased with index case age (35-59 years: adjusted OR [aOR], 3.4; 95% CI, 1.5-7.8 and ≥60 years: aOR, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.0-10.1) compared with 18-34 years and with contacts' age, 13-17 years (aOR, 7.1; 95% CI, 1.5-33.9) and 18-34 years (aOR, 4.4; 95% CI, 1.0-18.4) compared with <5 years. Mean positivity was longer in cases LWH (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.4; 95% CI, .1-.9). CONCLUSIONS Index HIV status was not associated with higher HCIR, but cases LWH had longer positivity duration. Adults aged >35 years were more likely to transmit and individuals aged 13-34 to be infected SARS-CoV-2 in the household. As HIV infection may increase transmission, health services must maintain HIV testing and antiretroviral therapy initiation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jackie Kleynhans
- Correspondence: J. Kleynhans, Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa. School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, 1 Modderfontein Road, Sandringham, 2192, Johannesburg, South Africa ()
| | - Sibongile Walaza
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa,School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Neil A Martinson
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa,Center for TB Research, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Mzimasi Neti
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Anne von Gottberg
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa,School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Jinal N Bhiman
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa,School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Dylan Toi
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Daniel G Amoako
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa,School of Health Sciences, College of Health Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
| | - Amelia Buys
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Kedibone Ndlangisa
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Nicole Wolter
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa,School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Leisha Genade
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Lucia Maloma
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Juanita Chewparsad
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Limakatso Lebina
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa,Africa Health Research Institute, Durban, South Africa
| | - Linda de Gouveia
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Retshidisitswe Kotane
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Stefano Tempia
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa,School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
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11
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Wu Y, Kang L, Guo Z, Liu J, Liu M, Liang W. Incubation Period of COVID-19 Caused by Unique SARS-CoV-2 Strains: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. JAMA Netw Open 2022; 5:e2228008. [PMID: 35994285 PMCID: PMC9396366 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.28008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 168] [Impact Index Per Article: 84.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
IMPORTANCE Several studies were conducted to estimate the average incubation period of COVID-19; however, the incubation period of COVID-19 caused by different SARS-CoV-2 variants is not well described. OBJECTIVE To systematically assess the incubation period of COVID-19 and the incubation periods of COVID-19 caused by different SARS-CoV-2 variants in published studies. DATA SOURCES PubMed, EMBASE, and ScienceDirect were searched between December 1, 2019, and February 10, 2022. STUDY SELECTION Original studies of the incubation period of COVID-19, defined as the time from infection to the onset of signs and symptoms. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) reporting guideline, 3 reviewers independently extracted the data from the eligible studies in March 2022. The parameters, or sufficient information to facilitate calculation of those values, were derived from random-effects meta-analysis. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The mean estimate of the incubation period and different SARS-CoV-2 strains. RESULTS A total of 142 studies with 8112 patients were included. The pooled incubation period was 6.57 days (95% CI, 6.26-6.88) and ranged from 1.80 to 18.87 days. The incubation period of COVID-19 caused by the Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants were reported in 1 study (with 6374 patients), 1 study (10 patients), 6 studies (2368 patients) and 5 studies (829 patients), respectively. The mean incubation period of COVID-19 was 5.00 days (95% CI, 4.94-5.06 days) for cases caused by the Alpha variant, 4.50 days (95% CI, 1.83-7.17 days) for the Beta variant, 4.41 days (95% CI, 3.76-5.05 days) for the Delta variant, and 3.42 days (95% CI, 2.88-3.96 days) for the Omicron variant. The mean incubation was 7.43 days (95% CI, 5.75-9.11 days) among older patients (ie, aged over 60 years old), 8.82 days (95% CI, 8.19-9.45 days) among infected children (ages 18 years or younger), 6.99 days (95% CI, 6.07-7.92 days) among patients with nonsevere illness, and 6.69 days (95% CI, 4.53-8.85 days) among patients with severe illness. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE The findings of this study suggest that SARS-CoV-2 has evolved and mutated continuously throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, producing variants with different enhanced transmission and virulence. Identifying the incubation period of different variants is a key factor in determining the isolation period.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yu Wu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Liangyu Kang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Zirui Guo
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Jue Liu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Min Liu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Wannian Liang
- Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
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12
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Madewell ZJ, Yang Y, Longini IM, Halloran ME, Dean NE. Household Secondary Attack Rates of SARS-CoV-2 by Variant and Vaccination Status: An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. JAMA Netw Open 2022; 5:e229317. [PMID: 35482308 PMCID: PMC9051991 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.9317] [Citation(s) in RCA: 117] [Impact Index Per Article: 58.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/17/2021] [Accepted: 03/10/2022] [Indexed: 12/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Importance An overall household secondary attack rate (SAR) of 18.9% (95% CI, 16.2%-22.0%) through June 17, 2021 was previously reported for SARS-CoV-2. Emerging variants of concern and increased vaccination have affected transmission rates. Objective To evaluate how reported household SARs changed over time and whether SARs varied by viral variant and index case and contact vaccination status. Data Sources PubMed and medRxiv from June 18, 2021, through March 8, 2022, and reference lists of eligible articles. Preprints were included. Study Selection Articles with original data reporting the number of infected and total number of household contacts. Search terms included SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, variant, vaccination, secondary attack rate, secondary infection rate, household, index case, family contacts, close contacts, and family transmission. Data Extraction and Synthesis The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses reporting guideline was followed. Meta-analyses used generalized linear mixed models to obtain SAR estimates and 95% CIs. Main Outcomes and Measures SAR stratified by covariates according to variant, index case and contact vaccination status, and index case identification period. SARs were used to estimate vaccine effectiveness on the basis of the transmission probability for susceptibility to infection (VES,p), infectiousness given infection (VEI,p), and total vaccine effectiveness (VET,p). Results Household SARs were higher for 33 studies with midpoints in 2021 to 2022 (37.3%; 95% CI, 32.7% to 42.1%) compared with 63 studies with midpoints through April 2020 (15.5%; 95% CI, 13.2% to 18.2%). Household SARs were 42.7% (95% CI, 35.4% to 50.4%) for Omicron (7 studies), 36.4% (95% CI, 33.4% to 39.5%) for Alpha (11 studies), 29.7% (95% CI, 23.0% to 37.3%) for Delta (16 studies), and 22.5% (95% CI, 18.6% to 26.8%) for Beta (3 studies). For full vaccination, VES,p was 78.6% (95% CI, 76.0% to 80.9%) for Alpha, 56.4% (95% CI, 54.6% to 58.1%) for Delta, and 18.1% (95% CI, -18.3% to 43.3%) for Omicron; VEI,p was 75.3% (95% CI, 69.9% to 79.8%) for Alpha, 21.9% (95% CI, 11.0% to 31.5%) for Delta, and 18.2% (95% CI, 0.6% to 32.6%) for Omicron; and VET,p was 94.7% (95% CI, 93.3% to 95.8%) for Alpha, 64.4% (95% CI, 58.0% to 69.8%) for Delta, and 35.8% (95% CI, 13.0% to 52.6%) for Omicron. Conclusions and Relevance These results suggest that emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have increased transmissibility. Full vaccination was associated with reductions in susceptibility and infectiousness, but more so for Alpha than Delta and Omicron. The changes in estimated vaccine effectiveness underscore the challenges of developing effective vaccines concomitant with viral evolution.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Yang Yang
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Florida, Gainesville
| | - Ira M. Longini
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Florida, Gainesville
| | - M. Elizabeth Halloran
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Natalie E. Dean
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia
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13
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Madewell ZJ, Yang Y, Longini IM, Halloran ME, Dean NE. Household secondary attack rates of SARS-CoV-2 by variant and vaccination status: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2022:2022.01.09.22268984. [PMID: 35043125 PMCID: PMC8764734 DOI: 10.1101/2022.01.09.22268984] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/06/2023]
Abstract
We previously reported a household secondary attack rate (SAR) for SARS-CoV-2 of 18.9% through June 17, 2021. To examine how emerging variants and increased vaccination have affected transmission rates, we searched PubMed from June 18, 2021, through January 7, 2022. Meta-analyses used generalized linear mixed models to obtain SAR estimates and 95%CI, disaggregated by several covariates. SARs were used to estimate vaccine effectiveness based on the transmission probability for susceptibility ( VE S,p ), infectiousness ( VE I,p ), and total vaccine effectiveness ( VE T,p ). Household SAR for 27 studies with midpoints in 2021 was 35.8% (95%CI, 30.6%-41.3%), compared to 15.7% (95%CI, 13.3%-18.4%) for 62 studies with midpoints through April 2020. Household SARs were 38.0% (95%CI, 36.0%-40.0%), 30.8% (95%CI, 23.5%-39.3%), and 22.5% (95%CI, 18.6%-26.8%) for Alpha, Delta, and Beta, respectively. VE I,p , VE S,p , and VE T,p were 56.6% (95%CI, 28.7%-73.6%), 70.3% (95%CI, 59.3%-78.4%), and 86.8% (95%CI, 76.7%-92.5%) for full vaccination, and 27.5% (95%CI, -6.4%-50.7%), 43.9% (95%CI, 21.8%-59.7%), and 59.9% (95%CI, 34.4%-75.5%) for partial vaccination, respectively. Household contacts exposed to Alpha or Delta are at increased risk of infection compared to the original wild-type strain. Vaccination reduced susceptibility to infection and transmission to others. SUMMARY Household secondary attack rates (SARs) were higher for Alpha and Delta variants than previous estimates. SARs were higher to unvaccinated contacts than to partially or fully vaccinated contacts and were higher from unvaccinated index cases than from fully vaccinated index cases.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Yang Yang
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL
| | - Ira M. Longini
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL
| | - M. Elizabeth Halloran
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
| | - Natalie E. Dean
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL
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