The seasonality of respiratory syncytial virus in Western Australia prior to implementation of SARS‐CoV‐2 non‐pharmaceutical interventions

Postpandemic fluctuations of regional respiratory syncytial virus hospitalization epidemiology: potential impact on an immunization program in Switzerland

RSV hospitalization epidemiology is subject to rapid changes brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic and the prospect of vaccine prevention. The purpose of this report is to characterize recent epidemiologic and clinical fluctuations and to analyze their potential impact on an immunization program with nirsevimab. This is a 2018-2024 retrospective analysis of all hospitalizations caused by RSV in patients below 16 years of age occurring at an academic Children's Hospital that serves a defined population. We simulated the vaccine impact against RSV hospitalization by applying the expected effects of the infant immunization program with nirsevimab proposed in Switzerland to observed case counts. We analyzed 1339 hospitalizations. The consecutive occurrence of two major epidemics in 2022-2023 and 2023-2024 had never been recorded previously. The 2023-2024 season witnessed a major shift to older age. Only 61% of patients were below 12 months of age, while prepandemic long-term surveillance since 1997 found a range between 64 and 85% (median, 73%). Age below 3 months, prematurity, airway anomalies, congenital heart disease, and neuromuscular disorders were independently associated with ICU admission. Simulation of the vaccine impact using two scenarios of coverage and efficacy (scenario 1, 50% and 62%, respectively; scenario 2, 90% and 90%) and three different age distributions resulted in an infant vaccine impact of 31.0% (scenario 1) and 81.0% (scenario 2), respectively. Vaccine impact for all patients below 16 years ranged from 22.7 to 24.9% (scenario 1) and 54.2 to 68.8% (scenario 2).

CONCLUSION

RSV hospitalization epidemiology was characterized by substantial variability in patient age on admission. As the proposed RSV immunization program primarily targets infants, year-to-year fluctuation of cases among older children will cause a variability of vaccine impact of approximately 15%. This information may be useful for physicians and hospital administrators when they anticipate the resources needed during the winter season.

WHAT IS KNOWN

• RSV hospitalization epidemiology was subject to massive disturbances during the COVID-19 pandemic. • Extended half-life monoclonal antibodies and active maternal immunization offer new means of passive protection of infants against severe RSV disease.

WHAT IS NEW

• We demonstrate substantial year-to-year fluctuation of the age distribution at the time of RSV hospitalization. • Up to 40% of annual RSV hospitalizations in a given season occur in children above 12 months of age who do not benefit from maternal RSV immunization and may not be eligible for receipt of a monoclonal antibody.

Nirsevimab: Alleviating the burden of RSV morbidity in young children

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the leading cause of acute lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) and hospital admissions in early childhood. Recent advancements in novel preventive therapies, including extended half-life monoclonal antibodies and antenatal vaccination, have afforded new opportunities to significantly reduce the burden of this infection. Nirsevimab is a novel monoclonal antibody that provides sustained protection against RSV for at least 5 months among newborns and young children. It has received regulatory approval in numerous countries and is being implemented across various settings. Two pivotal Phase 3 trials (MELODY, HARMONIE) demonstrated significant reductions in RSV-associated LRTI hospitalisations following nirsevimab administration, with treatment efficacy of 62.1% and 83.2%. Emerging real-world data from early adopters of nirsevimab corroborates these findings. Studies from Spain, Luxembourg, France and the USA report effectiveness rates between 82% and 90% in preventing RSV-associated hospitalisations among infants entering their first RSV season. Current implementation strategies for nirsevimab have primarily focused on seasonal administration for all infants, aligned to local RSV seasons, and often include catch-up doses for those born before the season begins. Available cost-effectiveness analyses indicate that while nirsevimab offers significant potential public health benefits, its adoption must carefully consider economic factors such as treatment costs, implementation strategies tailored to local viral epidemiology, and logistics for vaccine delivery. Overall, nirsevimab presents a promising opportunity to alleviate the burden of severe RSV infections in young children. However, ongoing surveillance and refinements in implementation strategies are crucial to optimise its impact and ensure sustainability across diverse health-care settings.

The Changing Detection Rate of Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Adults in Western Australia between 2017 and 2023

The incidence of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in adults is inadequately defined and the impact of SARS-CoV-2-related non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) is underexplored. Using laboratory data, we described the detection rate of RSV in adults ≥16 years in Western Australia (WA) between 2017 and 2023. With the exception of 2020, RSV detections rose annually between 2017 and 2023, reaching 50.7 per 100,000 in 2023 (95% confidence interval [CI], 47.9-53.8). RSV testing expanded considerably across the study period, with the testing in 2023 more than five times the 2017 total. The detection rate was highest in adults ≥60 years between 2017 and 2019, particularly those ≥75 years. Following 2020, the detections in all age groups increased, with the highest detection rate in 2023 in those ≥75-years (199.5 per 100,000; 95% CI, 180.5-220). NPIs significantly impacted RSV seasonality; the preceding winter pattern was disrupted, resulting in an absent 2020 winter season and two major summer seasons in 2020/21 and 2021/22. The RSV season began to realign in 2022, reverting to a winter seasonal pattern in 2023 and the largest season in the study period. Ongoing surveillance will be required to understand the stability of these increases and to delineate the impact of new immunisation strategies.

Head-to-Head Comparison Between Respiratory Syncytial Virus and Human Metapneumovirus Bronchiolitis in the Setting of Increased Viral Testing

We compared the epidemiology, severity and management of hospitalized respiratory syncytial virus (n = 305) and human metapneumovirus (n = 39) bronchiolitis in a setting with high respiratory virus testing (95% of admissions tested). Respiratory syncytial virus-positive infants were younger and tended to require more hydration support and longer hospital stays compared to human metapneumovirus-positive infants. Respiratory support requirements were similar between groups despite significant age differences.

Respiratory Syncytial Virus Reinfections in Children in Western Australia

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) reinfection in children is poorly understood. We examined the incidence, characteristics, and outcomes of hospital-attended RSV reinfections in children <16 years in Western Australia between 2012 and 2022. Individuals with repeat RSV detections ≥56 days apart were identified using laboratory data. The incidence of reinfection in the first five years of life was estimated using the total birth population from 2012 to 2017. Clinical data on a subset of reinfection episodes were obtained from two metropolitan pediatric centers. A total of 466 children with hospital-attended reinfections were identified. The median interval between RSV detections was 460 days (interquartile range: 324, 812), with a reinfection rate of 95 per 100,000 individuals (95% confidence interval: 82, 109). Reinfection was most common in children who experienced their first RSV detection <6 months of age. Predisposing factors were identified in 56% of children; children with predisposing factors were older at first and second detections, were more likely to be admitted, and had a longer length of stay. This study highlights the significant burden of hospital-attended RSV reinfections in children with and without predisposing factors. Expanded surveillance with in-depth clinical data is required to further characterize the impact of RSV reinfection.