Quantifying human health risks from virginiamycin used in chickens

Assessing the Risk of Antimicrobial Resistant Enterococcal Infections in Humans Due to Bacitracin Usage in Poultry

Bacitracin is an antimicrobial used in the feed or water of poultry in the U.S. for the prevention, treatment, and control of clostridial diseases such as necrotic enteritis. Concern has been raised that bacitracin can select for antimicrobial-resistant bacteria that can be transmitted to humans and subsequently cause disease that is more difficult to treat because of the resistance. The objective of the present study was to perform a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) to estimate the potential risk in the U.S. of human infection with antimicrobial-resistant Enterococcus faecalis and E. faecium derived from chicken and turkey products as a result of bacitracin usage in U.S. poultry. The modeling approach estimated the annual number of healthcare-associated enterococcal infections in the U.S. that would be resistant to antimicrobial therapy and that would be derived from poultry sources because of bacitracin use in poultry. Parameter estimates were developed to be "maximum risk" to overestimate the risk to humans. While approximately 60% of E. faecalis and E. faecium derived from poultry were predicted to possess bacitracin resistance based on the presence of the bcrABDR gene locus, very few human-derived isolates possessed this trait. Furthermore, no vancomycin or linezolid-resistant strains of E. faecalis or E. faecium were detected in poultry sources between the years 2002 and 2019. The model estimated the number of antimicrobial-resistant E. faecalis and E. faecium cases per year that might resist therapy due to bacitracin use in poultry as 0.86 and 0.14, respectively, which translates to an annual risk estimate for E. faecalis of less than 1 in 350 million and for E. faecium of less than 1 in 2 billion for members of the U.S. population. Even with the use of risk-maximizing assumptions, the results indicate that there is a high probability that the use of bacitracin according to label instructions in U.S. poultry presents a negligible risk to human health.

A One-Health Quantitative Model to Assess the Risk of Antibiotic Resistance Acquisition in Asian Populations: Impact of Exposure Through Food, Water, Livestock and Humans

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) has become a major threat worldwide, especially in countries with inadequate sanitation and low antibiotic regulation. However, adequately prioritizing AMR interventions in such settings requires a quantification of the relative impacts of environmental, animal, and human sources in a One-Health perspective. Here, we propose a stochastic quantitative risk assessment model for the different components at interplay in AMR selection and spread. The model computes the incidence of AMR colonization in humans from five different sources: water or food consumption, contacts with livestock, and interhuman contacts in hospitals or the community, and combines these incidences into a per-year acquisition risk. Using data from the literature and Monte-Carlo simulations, we apply the model to hypothetical Asian-like settings, focusing on resistant bacteria that may cause infections in humans. In both scenarios A, illustrative of low-income countries, and B, illustrative of high-income countries, the overall individual risk of becoming colonized with resistant bacteria at least once per year is high. However, the average predicted incidence of colonization was lower in scenario B at 0.82 (CrI [0.13, 5.1]) acquisitions/person/year, versus 1.69 (CrI [0.66, 11.13]) acquisitions/person/year for scenario A. A high percentage of population with no access to improved water on premises and a high percentage of population involved in husbandry are shown to strongly increase the AMR acquisition risk. The One-Health AMR risk assessment framework we developed may prove useful to policymakers throughout Asia, as it can easily be parameterized to realistically reproduce conditions in a given country, provided data are available.

Quantifying Human Health Risks from Virginiamycin Use in Food Animals in China

Virginiamycin (VM), a streptogramin antibiotic, has been used to promote healthy growth and treat illnesses in farm animals in the United States and other countries. The combination streptogramin Quinupristin-Dalfopristin (QD) was approved in the United States in 1999 for treating patients with vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium (VREF) infections. Many chickens and swine test positive for QD-resistant E. faecium, raising concerns that using VM in food animals might select for streptogramin-resistant strains of E. faecium that could compromise QD effectiveness in treating human VREF infections. Such concerns have prompted bans and phase-outs of VM as growth promoters in the United States and Europe. This study quantitatively estimates potential human health risks from QD-resistant VREF infections due to VM use in food animals in China. Plausible conservative (risk-maximizing) quantitative risk estimates are derived for future uses, assuming 100% resistance to linezolid and daptomycin and 100% prescription rate of QD to high-level (VanA) VREF-infected patients. Up to one shortened life every few decades to every few thousand years might occur in China from VM use in animals, although the most likely risk is zero (e.g., if resistance is not transferred from bacteria in food animals to bacteria infecting human patients). Sensitivity and probabilistic uncertainty analyses suggest that this conclusion is robust to several data gaps and uncertainties. Potential future human health risks from VM use in animals in China appear to be small or zero, even if QD is eventually approved for use in human patients.

Antibiotic Resistome Associated with Small-Scale Poultry Production in Rural Ecuador

Small-scale poultry farming is common in rural communities across the developing world. To examine the extent to which small-scale poultry farming serves as a reservoir for resistance determinants, the resistome of fecal samples was compared between production chickens that received antibiotics and free-ranging household chickens that received no antibiotics from a rural village in northern Ecuador. A qPCR array was used to quantify antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) and mobile genetic elements (MGEs) using 248 primer pairs; and the microbiome structure was analyzed via 16S rRNA gene sequencing. A large number of ARGs (148) and MGEs (29) were detected. The ARG richness in production chickens was significantly higher than that of household chickens with an average of 15 more genes detected ( p < 0.01). Moreover, ARGs and MGEs were much more abundant in production chickens than in household chickens (up to a 157-fold difference). Production chicken samples had significantly lower taxonomic diversity and were more abundant in Gammaproteobacteria, Betaproteobacteria, and Flavobacteria. The high abundance and diversity of ARGs and MGEs found in small-scale poultry farming was comparable to the levels previously found in large scale animal production, suggesting that these chickens could act as a local reservoir for spreading ARGs into rural communities.

The Risk of Some Veterinary Antimicrobial Agents on Public Health Associated with Antimicrobial Resistance and their Molecular Basis

The risk of antimicrobial agents used in food-producing animals on public health associated with antimicrobial resistance continues to be a current topic of discussion as related to animal and human public health. In the present review, resistance monitoring data, and risk assessment results of some important antimicrobial agents were cited to elucidate the possible association of antimicrobial use in food animals and antimicrobial resistance in humans. From the selected examples, it was apparent from reviewing the published scientific literature that the ban on use of some antimicrobial agents (e.g., avoparcin, fluoroquinolone, tetracyclines) did not change drug resistance patterns and did not mitigate the intended goal of minimizing antimicrobial resistance. The use of some antimicrobial agents (e.g., virginiamycin, macrolides, and cephalosporins) in food animals may have an impact on the antimicrobial resistance in humans, but it was largely depended on the pattern of drug usage in different geographical regions. The epidemiological characteristics of resistant bacteria were closely related to molecular mechanisms involved in the development, fitness, and transmission of antimicrobial resistance.

Precautionary principles: a jurisdiction-free framework for decision-making under risk

Fundamental principles of precaution are legal maxims that ask for preventive actions, perhaps as contingent interim measures while relevant information about causality and harm remains unavailable, to minimize the societal impact of potentially severe or irreversible outcomes. Such principles do not explain how to make choices or how to identify what is protective when incomplete and inconsistent scientific evidence of causation characterizes the potential hazards. Rather, they entrust lower jurisdictions, such as agencies or authorities, to make current decisions while recognizing that future information can contradict the scientific basis that supported the initial decision. After reviewing and synthesizing national and international legal aspects of precautionary principles, this paper addresses the key question: How can society manage potentially severe, irreversible or serious environmental outcomes when variability, uncertainty, and limited causal knowledge characterize their decisionmaking? A decision Rational choice of an action from among various alternatives-requires accounting for costs, benefits and the change in risks associated with each candidate action. Decisions under any form of the precautionary principle reviewed must account for the contingent nature of scientific information, creating a link to the decision/response models to the current set of regulatory defaults such as the linear, non-threshold models. This increase in the number of defaults is an important improvement because most of the variants of the precautionary principle require cost-defined as a choice that makes preferred consequences more likely-analytic principle of expected value of information (VOI), to show the relevance of new information, relative to the initial (and smaller) set of data on which the decision was based. We exemplify this seemingly simple situation using risk management of BSE. As an integral aspect of causal analysis under risk, the methods developed in this paper permit the addition of non-linear, hormetic dose-analytic solution is outlined that focuses on risky decisions and accounts for prior states of information and scientific beliefs that can be updated as subsequent information becomes available. As a practical and established approach to causal reasoning and decision-making under risk, inherent to precautionary decision-making, these (Bayesian) methods help decision-makers and stakeholders because they formally account for probabilistic outcomes, new information, and are consistent and replicable. benefit balancing. Specifically, increasing the set of causal defaults accounts for beneficial effects at very low doses. We also show and conclude that quantitative risk assessment dominates qualitative risk assessment, supporting the extension of the set of default causal models.

Effects of retailer pressure on the efficiency of agricultural industries

Considerable progress has been made in reducing starvation during the past century. This was achieved through increased use of arable land and adoption of new technologies. Future increases in food production will depend to a greater extent than in the past on the adoption of new technologies and must be even more rapidly achieved than in the past to meet the increase in demand for food. Intensive industries such as the poultry industry are under pressure from those engaged with a naturalistic fallacy. Technologies such as antibiotics for chickens or hormonal growth promotants (HGPs) for beef cattle that are safe for people, reduce environmental impacts of production, increase profits for producers, and improve animal well-being will be needed to achieve these increases in food production. The precedent set in the EU in banning HGPs can be understood as a response to the illegal abuse of diethylstilboestrol in the EU and as a non-tariff trade barrier to reduce the importation of beef from more efficient producers. The banning of antibiotics in the EU reflects the unwise application of a ‘precautionary principle’ through which risks were not soundly assessed. However, the unilateral ban established by Coles Supermarkets Pty Ltd on HGPs in Australia represents a more dangerous development, in which marketing ploys have been accorded a higher value than the care of animals, the environment, or the profit made by producers. Decisions such as these have reduced the viability of animal production in the UK and pose a threat to sustainable agricultural production in Australia.

Food animals and antimicrobials: impacts on human health

Antimicrobials are valuable therapeutics whose efficacy is seriously compromised by the emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistance. The provision of antibiotics to food animals encompasses a wide variety of nontherapeutic purposes that include growth promotion. The concern over resistance emergence and spread to people by nontherapeutic use of antimicrobials has led to conflicted practices and opinions. Considerable evidence supported the removal of nontherapeutic antimicrobials (NTAs) in Europe, based on the "precautionary principle." Still, concrete scientific evidence of the favorable versus unfavorable consequences of NTAs is not clear to all stakeholders. Substantial data show elevated antibiotic resistance in bacteria associated with animals fed NTAs and their food products. This resistance spreads to other animals and humans-directly by contact and indirectly via the food chain, water, air, and manured and sludge-fertilized soils. Modern genetic techniques are making advances in deciphering the ecological impact of NTAs, but modeling efforts are thwarted by deficits in key knowledge of microbial and antibiotic loads at each stage of the transmission chain. Still, the substantial and expanding volume of evidence reporting animal-to-human spread of resistant bacteria, including that arising from use of NTAs, supports eliminating NTA use in order to reduce the growing environmental load of resistance genes.

State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: food microbiology

Over the past years benefit-risk analysis (BRA) in relation to foods and food ingredients has gained much attention; in Europe and worldwide. BRA relating to food microbiology is however a relatively new field of research. Microbiological risk assessment is well defined but assessment of microbial benefits and the weighing of benefits and risk has not been systematically addressed. In this paper the state of the art in benefit-risk analysis in food microbiology is presented, with a brief overview of microbiological food safety practices. The quality and safety of foods is commonly best preserved by delaying the growth of spoilage bacteria and contamination by bacterial pathogens. However, microorganisms in food can be both harmful and beneficial. Many microorganisms are integral to various food production processes e.g. the production of beer, wine and various dairy products. Moreover, the use of some microorganisms in the production of fermented foods are often claimed to have beneficial effects on food nutrition and consumer health. Furthermore, food safety interventions leading to reduced public exposure to foodborne pathogens can be regarded as benefits. The BRA approach integrates an independent assessment of both risks and benefits and weighs the two using a common currency. Recently, a number of initiatives have been launched in the field of food and nutrition to address the formulation of the benefit-risk assessment approach. BRA has recently been advocated by EFSA for the public health management of food and food ingredients; as beneficial and adverse chemicals can often be found within the same foods and even the same ingredients. These recent developments in the scoping of BRA could be very relevant for food microbiological issues. BRA could become a valuable methodology to support evaluations and decision making regarding microbiological food safety and public health, supplementing other presently available policy making and administrative tools for microbiological food safety management.

Risk assessment of growth hormones and antimicrobial residues in meat

Growth promoters including hormonal substances and antibiotics are used legally and illegally in food producing animals for the growth promotion of livestock animals. Hormonal substances still under debate in terms of their human health impacts are estradiol-17β, progesterone, testosterone, zeranol, trenbolone, and melengestrol acetate (MGA) . Many of the risk assessment results of natural steroid hormones have presented negligible impacts when they are used under good veterinary practices. For synthetic hormonelike substances, ADIs and MRLs have been established for food safety along with the approval of animal treatment. Small amounts of antibiotics added to feedstuff present growth promotion effects via the prevention of infectious diseases at doses lower than therapeutic dose. The induction of antimicrobial resistant bacteria and the disruption of normal human intestinal flora are major concerns in terms of human health impact. Regulatory guidance such as ADIs and MRLs fully reflect the impact on human gastrointestinal microflora. However, before deciding on any risk management options, risk assessments of antimicrobial resistance require large-scale evidence regarding the relationship between antimicrobial use in food-producing animals and the occurrence of antimicrobial resistance in human pathogens. In this article, the risk profiles of hormonal and antibacterial growth promoters are provided based on recent toxicity and human exposure information, and recommendations for risk management to prevent human health impacts by the use of growth promoters are also presented.

Antibiotic manipulation of intestinal microbiota to identify microbes associated with Campylobacter jejuni exclusion in poultry

The ability of various subsets of poultry intestinal microbiota to protect turkeys from colonization by Campylobacter jejuni was investigated. Community subsets were generated in vivo by inoculation of day-old poults with the cecal contents of a Campylobacter-free adult turkey, followed by treatment with one antimicrobial, either virginiamycin, enrofloxacin, neomycin, or vancomycin. The C. jejuni loads of the enrofloxacin-, neomycin-, and vancomycin-derived communities were decreased by 1 log, 2 logs, and 4 logs, respectively. Examination of the constituents of the derived communities via the array-based method oligonucleotide fingerprinting of rRNA genes detected a subtype of Megamonas hypermegale specific to the C. jejuni-suppressive treatments.

Assessing potential human health hazards and benefits from subtherapeutic antibiotics in the United States: tetracyclines as a case study

Many scientists, activists, regulators, and politicians have expressed urgent concern that using antibiotics in food animals selects for resistant strains of bacteria that harm human health and bring nearer a "postantibiotic era" of multidrug resistant "super-bugs." Proposed political solutions, such as the Preservation of Antibiotics for Medical Treatment Act (PAMTA), would ban entire classes of subtherapeutic antibiotics (STAs) now used for disease prevention and growth promotion in food animals. The proposed bans are not driven by formal quantitative risk assessment (QRA), but by a perceived need for immediate action to prevent potential catastrophe. Similar fears led to STA phase-outs in Europe a decade ago. However, QRA and empirical data indicate that continued use of STAs in the United States has not harmed human health, and bans in Europe have not helped human health. The fears motivating PAMTA contrast with QRA estimates of vanishingly small risks. As a case study, examining specific tetracycline uses and resistance patterns suggests that there is no significant human health hazard from continued use of tetracycline in food animals. Simple hypothetical calculations suggest an unobservably small risk (between 0 and 1.75E-11 excess lifetime risk of a tetracycline-resistant infection), based on the long history of tetracycline use in the United States without resistance-related treatment failures. QRAs for other STA uses in food animals also find that human health risks are vanishingly small. Whether such QRA calculations will guide risk management policy for animal antibiotics in the United States remains to be seen.

Human health risk assessment of penicillin/aminopenicillin resistance in enterococci due to penicillin use in food animals

Penicillin and ampicillin drugs are approved for use in food animals in the United States to treat, control, and prevent diseases, and penicillin is approved for use to improve growth rates in pigs and poultry. This article considers the possibility that such uses might increase the incidence of ampicillin-resistant Enterococcus faecium (AREF) of animal origin in human infections, leading to increased hospitalization and mortality due to reduced response to ampicillin or penicillin. We assess the risks from continued use of penicillin-based drugs in food animals in the United States, using several assumptions to overcome current scientific uncertainties and data gaps. Multiplying the total at-risk population of intensive care unit (ICU) patients by a series of estimated factors suggests that not more than 0.04 excess mortalities per year (under conservative assumptions) to 0.14 excess mortalities per year (under very conservative assumptions) might be prevented in the whole U.S. population if current use of penicillin drugs in food animals were discontinued and if this successfully reduced the prevalence of AREF infections among ICU patients. These calculations suggest that current penicillin usage in food animals in the United States presents very low (possibly zero) human health risks.

Overcoming confirmation bias in causal attribution: a case study of antibiotic resistance risks

When they do not use formal quantitative risk assessment methods, many scientists (like other people) make mistakes and exhibit biases in reasoning about causation, if-then relations, and evidence. Decision-related conclusions or causal explanations are reached prematurely based on narrative plausibility rather than adequate factual evidence. Then, confirming evidence is sought and emphasized, but disconfirming evidence is ignored or discounted. This tendency has serious implications for health-related public policy discussions and decisions. We provide examples occurring in antimicrobial health risk assessments, including a case study of a recently reported positive relation between virginiamycin (VM) use in poultry and risk of resistance to VM-like (streptogramin) antibiotics in humans. This finding has been used to argue that poultry consumption causes increased resistance risks, that serious health impacts may result, and therefore use of VM in poultry should be restricted. However, the original study compared healthy vegetarians to hospitalized poultry consumers. Our examination of the same data using conditional independence tests for potential causality reveals that poultry consumption acted as a surrogate for hospitalization in this study. After accounting for current hospitalization status, no evidence remains supporting a causal relationship between poultry consumption and increased streptogramin resistance. This example emphasizes both the importance and the practical possibility of analyzing and presenting quantitative risk information using data analysis techniques (such as Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and conditional independence tests) that are as free as possible from potential selection, confirmation, and modeling biases.

Relationship between antimicrobial drug usage and antimicrobial susceptibility of gram-positive mastitis pathogens

The objective of this study was to analyze relationships between usage of antimicrobial drugs on dairy farms and results of antimicrobial susceptibility testing of mastitis pathogens. Exposure to selected antimicrobial drugs (n = 10) was standardized by calculation of the number of defined daily doses used per cow. Farms (n = 40) were categorized based on amount of antimicrobial exposure: organic (no usage); conventional-low usage (conventional farms not using or using less than or equal to the first quartile of use of each compound); and conventional-high usage (conventional farms using more than the first quartile of a particular compound). The minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of selected antimicrobial drugs was determined using a commercial microbroth dilution system for isolates of Staphylococcus aureus (n = 137), coagulase-negative staphylococci (CNS, n = 294), and Streptococcus spp. (n = 95) obtained from subclinical mastitis infections. Most isolates were inhibited at the lowest dilution tested of most antimicrobial drugs. Survival curves for Staph. aureus and CNS demonstrated heterogeneity in MIC based on the amount of exposure to penicillin and pirlimycin. For CNS, farm type was associated with the MIC of ampicillin and tetracycline. For Streptococcus spp., farm type was associated with MIC of pirlimycin and tetracycline. For all mastitis pathogens studied, the MIC of pirlimycin increased with increasing exposure to defined daily doses of pirlimycin. The level of exposure to most other antimicrobial drugs was not associated with MIC of mastitis pathogens. A dose-response effect between antimicrobial exposure and susceptibility was observed for some pathogen-antimicrobial combinations, but exposure to other antimicrobial drugs commonly used for prevention and treatment of mastitis was not associated with resistance.

A stochastic assessment of the public health risks of the use of macrolide antibiotics in food animals

Campylobacteriosis is an important food-borne illness with more than a million U.S. cases annually. Antibiotic treatment is usually not required. However, erythromycin, a macrolide antibiotic, is recommended for the treatment of severe cases. Therefore, it is considered a critically important antibiotic and given special attention as to the risk that food animal use will lead to resistant infections and compromised human treatment. To assess this risk, we used a retrospective approach; estimating the number of campylobacteriosis cases caused by specific meat consumption utilizing the preventable fraction. We then determined the number of cases with macrolide resistance Campylobacter spp. based on a linear model relating the resistance fraction to on-farm macrolide use. In this article, we considered the uncertainties in the parameter estimates, utilized a more elaborate model of resistance development and separated C. coli and C. jejuni. There are no published data for the probability of compromised treatment outcome due to macrolide resistance. Therefore, our estimates of compromised treatment outcome were based on data for fluoroquinolone-resistant infections. The conservative results show the human health risks are extremely low. For example, the predicted risk of suboptimal human treatment of infection with C. coli from swine is only 1 in 82 million; with a 95% chance it could be as high as 1 in 49 million. Risks from C. jejuni in poultry or beef are even less. Reduced antibiotic use can adversely impact animal health. These low human risks should be weighed against the alternative risks.

The issue of antimicrobial resistance in human medicine

Antibiotics are used worldwide in human medicine and agriculture. In many cases the use of antibiotics is unnecessary or questionable. Consumption of antibiotics is linked to bacterial resistance. In hospitals, most common resistant bacteria include methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, vancomycin-resistant enterococci and Gram-negative rods including Enterobacteriaceae and Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Vancomycin intermediate and resistant S. aureus, described just recently, represent a new treatment challenge. In the community, penicillin and macrolide-resistant pneumococci developed several decades ago and are now present all over the world. More recently, community-acquired methicillin-resistant S. aureus has become a problem in several countries causing skin infections but also severe diseases. Resistance to co-trimoxazole in Escherichia coli has changed empirical treatment of urinary tract infections, one of the most common causes of the visit to the physician's office. Several reports and studies trying to limit the use of antibiotics have shown that antimicrobial resistance of bacteria can be reversed, but in general the problem is far from being solved. World Health Assembly and the European Community Council have recognized the problem of antibiotic resistance as a priority. The relationship between agricultural use of antimicrobials and antibacterial resistance in humans should be further investigated.

Characterization of intestinal microbiota and response to dietary virginiamycin supplementation in the broiler chicken

The inclusion of antibiotic growth promoters, such as virginiamycin, at subtherapeutic levels in poultry feeds has a positive effect on health and growth characteristics, possibly due to beneficial effects on the host gastrointestinal microbiota. To improve our understanding of the chicken gastrointestinal microbiota and the effect of virginiamycin on its composition, we characterized the bacteria found in five different gastrointestinal tract locations (duodenal loop, mid-jejunum, proximal ileum, ileocecal junction, and cecum) in 47-day-old chickens that were fed diets excluding or including virginiamycin throughout the production cycle. Ten libraries (five gastrointestinal tract locations from two groups of birds) of approximately 555-bp chaperonin 60 PCR products were prepared, and 10,932 cloned sequences were analyzed. A total of 370 distinct cpn60 sequences were identified, which ranged in frequency of recovery from 1 to 2,872. The small intestinal libraries were dominated by sequences from the Lactobacillales (90% of sequences), while the cecum libraries were more diverse and included members of the Clostridiales (68%), Lactobacillales (25%), and Bacteroidetes (6%). To assess the effects of virginiamycin on the gastrointestinal microbiota, 15 bacterial targets were enumerated using quantitative, real-time PCR. Virginiamycin was associated with increased abundance of many of the targets in the proximal gastrointestinal tract (duodenal loop to proximal ileum), with fewer targets affected in the distal regions (ileocecal junction and cecum). These findings provide improved profiling of the composition of the chicken intestinal microbiota and indicate that microbial responses to virginiamycin are most significant in the proximal small intestine.

Potential Impacts of Antibiotic Use in Poultry Production

The ways in which antibiotics are used in poultry production have changed considerably during the past decade, mainly because of concerns about potential negative human health consequences caused by these uses. Human health improvements directly attributable to these antibiotic-use changes are difficult to demonstrate. Given that some antibiotics will continue to be used in the poultry industry, methods are needed for estimating the causal relationship between these antibiotic uses and actual animal and human health impacts. This is a challenging task because of the numerous factors that are able to select for the emergence, dissemination, and persistence of antibiotic resistance. Managing the potential impacts of antibiotic use in poultry requires more than a simple estimation of the risks that can be attributed to the use of antibiotics in poultry. Risk models and empirical studies that evaluate interventions that are capable of minimizing the negative consequences associated with specific antibiotic uses are desperately needed.

Rapid benefit-risk assessments: no escape from expert judgments in risk management

The "human health impacts assessment" described by Cox and Popken (this issue) is intended to be a benefit-risk tool that avoids pitfalls of using expert judgments for policy analysis or during strict application of the precautionary principle in risk management. The proposed benefit-risk calculation uses numerous assumptions and suppositions to calculate a ratio of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost for the number of human illness days prevented by the use of a food-animal antimicrobial drug, to the number of human illness days caused by the use of the antimicrobial drug. Assumptions about data--e.g., expert judgments on the representativeness of parameter estimates--are commonly used in risk assessment and risk management, including Cox and Popken's method. Cox and Popken apply the technique to specific examples of enrofloxacin and macrolides antimicrobial drugs, sometimes used in broiler chickens for human food. Although enthusiastically portrayed as a straightforward calculation of QALYs lost for two decision alternatives, Cox and Popken were silent on the pivotal expert judgment subsumed in their method: quality weights for illnesses caused by antimicrobial-resistant and antimicrobial-sensitive microbes are tacitly assumed to be equal. Yet, the costs in terms of prolonged illness, additional medications, repeat medical visits, and dread of more serious sequelae are expected to differ substantially for antimicrobial-resistant versus antimicrobial-sensitive illnesses. Despite their enthusiasm to the contrary, the "human health impacts assessment" by Cox and Popken is not immune from expert judgments in risk management.

Changes in antimicrobial susceptibility of native Enterococcus faecium in chickens fed virginiamycin

The extent of transfer of antimicrobial resistance from agricultural environments to humans is controversial. To assess the potential hazard posed by streptogramin use in food animals, this study evaluated the effect of virginiamycin exposure on antimicrobial resistance in Enterococcus faecium recovered from treated broilers. Four consecutive broiler feeding trials were conducted using animals raised on common litter. In the first three trials, one group of birds was fed virginiamycin continuously in feed at 20 g/ton, and a second group served as the nontreated control. In the fourth trial, antimicrobial-free feed was given to both groups. Fecal samples were cultured 1 day after chickens hatched and then at 1, 3, 5, and 7 weeks of age. Isolates from each time point were tested for susceptibility to a panel of different antimicrobials. Quinupristin/dalfopristin-resistant E. faecium appeared after 5 weeks of treatment in trial 1 and within 7 days of trials 2 to 4. Following removal of virginiamycin in trial 4, no resistant isolates were detected after 5 weeks. PCR failed to detect vat, vgb, or erm(B) in any of the streptogramin-resistant E. faecium isolates, whereas the msr(C) gene was detected in 97% of resistant isolates. In an experimental setting using broiler chickens, continuous virginiamycin exposure was required to maintain a stable streptogramin-resistant population of E. faecium in the animals. The bases of resistance could not be explained by known genetic determinants.

Identification and surveillance of antimicrobial resistance dissemination in animal production

Antimicrobial resistance is a growing problem in human medicine, and concern has been expressed that use of antimicrobials in animals may be a contributing factor. Although the majority of human pathogens showing antibiotic resistance have no link with animals, the issue of animal use of antimicrobials remains controversial, particularly with respect to antibiotic growth promoters (AGP). The European Union (EU) has withdrawn as AGP some compounds that remain in use in the United Sates. This difference in availability allows comparisons to be made of antimicrobial resistance outcomes with and without use of an AGP. Such comparisons so far show little apparent measurable benefit to human health resulting from the EU removal of AGP, and there is evidence of increased use of therapeutic antibiotics in animals to treat an apparent increased incidence of clinical disease. Microbial risk assessments are important in judging quantitatively or qualitatively whether the risk of using a particular AGP is acceptable in terms of potential hazard to human health. Resistance surveillance is an essential part of such microbial risk assessments, but such surveillance should be carefully planned to avoid confounding factors that could invalidate any conclusions.

Some limitations of qualitative risk rating systems

Qualitative systems for rating animal antimicrobial risks using ordered categorical labels such as "high,""medium," and "low" can potentially simplify risk assessment input requirements used to inform risk management decisions. But do they improve decisions? This article compares the results of qualitative and quantitative risk assessment systems and establishes some theoretical limitations on the extent to which they are compatible. In general, qualitative risk rating systems satisfying conditions found in real-world rating systems and guidance documents and proposed as reasonable make two types of errors: (1) Reversed rankings, i.e., assigning higher qualitative risk ratings to situations that have lower quantitative risks; and (2) Uninformative ratings, e.g., frequently assigning the most severe qualitative risk label (such as "high") to situations with arbitrarily small quantitative risks and assigning the same ratings to risks that differ by many orders of magnitude. Therefore, despite their appealing consensus-building properties, flexibility, and appearance of thoughtful process in input requirements, qualitative rating systems as currently proposed often do not provide sufficient information to discriminate accurately between quantitatively small and quantitatively large risks. The value of information (VOI) that they provide for improving risk management decisions can be zero if most risks are small but a few are large, since qualitative ratings may then be unable to confidently distinguish the large risks from the small. These limitations suggest that it is important to continue to develop and apply practical quantitative risk assessment methods, since qualitative ones are often unreliable.

Potential human health benefits of antibiotics used in food animals: a case study of virginiamycin

Risk management of food-animal antibiotics has reached a crucial juncture for public health officials worldwide. While withdrawals of animal antibiotics previously used to control animal bacterial illnesses are being encouraged in many countries, the human health impacts of such withdrawals are only starting to be understood. Increases in animal and human bacterial illness rates and antibiotic resistance levels in humans in Europe despite bans on animal antibiotics there have raised questions about how animal antibiotic use affects human health. This paper presents a quantitative human health risk and benefits assessment for virginiamycin (VM), a streptogramin antibiotic recommended for withdrawal from use in food animals in several countries. It applies a new quantitative Rapid Risk Rating Technique (RRRT) that estimates and multiplies data-driven exposure, dose-response, and consequence factors, as suggested by WHO (2003) to estimate human health impacts from withdrawing virginiamycin. Increased human health risks from more pathogens reaching consumers if VM use is terminated (6660 estimated excess campylobacteriosis cases per year in the base case) are predicted to far outweigh benefits from reduced streptogramin-resistant vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium (VREF) infections in human patients (0.27 estimated excess cases per year in the base case). While lack of information about impacts of VM withdrawal on average human illnesses-per-serving of food animal meat precludes a deterministic conclusion, it appears very probable that such a withdrawal would cause many times more human illnesses than it would prevent. This qualitative conclusion appears to be robust to several scientific and modeling uncertainties.

Bayesian Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis of human health risks from animal antimicrobial use in a dynamic model of emerging resistance

Recent qualitative analyses warn of potential future human health risks from emergence of antibiotic resistance in food-borne pathogens due to the use of similar antimicrobial drugs in both food animals and human medicine. While historical data suggest that human health risks from some animal antimicrobials, such as virginiamycin (VM), have remained low (McDonald et al., 2001), there is a widespread concern that "resistance epidemics" or endemics could arise in the future. How reassuring is the past about the future? This article applies quantitative risk assessment methods to help find out, using human health risks from VM and the nearly identical human antimicrobial quinupristin-dalfopristin (QD) as a case study. A dynamic simulation model is used to predict the risks of emerging resistance to human antimicrobials in human populations from given input assumptions. Bayesian Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis allows past data to constrain and inform selection of input parameter values, and thus to predict the possible future resistance patterns that are consistent with historical data. The results show that health risks from VM use in food animals are highly sensitive to the human prescription rate of QD. For realistic prescription rates, quantitative risks are less than 1 x 10(-6) even for members of the most-threatened (ICU patient) population, while societal risks are <1 excess statistical death per year for the whole U.S. population. Such quantitative estimates complement more qualitative assessments that discuss the possibility of future "resistance epidemics" (or endemics) without quantifying their probabilities.