Predictors of reproductive cost in female Soay sheep

Interpopulation differences and temporal synchrony in rates of adult survival between two seabird colonies that differ in population size and distance to foraging grounds

Understanding the processes that drive interpopulation differences in demography and population dynamics is central to metapopulation ecology. In colonial species, populations are limited by local resource availability. However, individuals from larger colonies will travel greater distances to overcome density-dependent competition. Consequently, these individuals may also experience greater carry-over effects and interpopulation differences in demography. To test this prediction, we use mark-recapture data collected over four decades from two breeding colonies of a seabird, the Manx shearwater (Puffinus puffinus), that exhibit strong spatial overlap throughout the annual cycle but differ in population size and maximum foraging distances. We quantify interpopulation differences and synchrony in rates of survival and assess whether local mean wind speeds act to strengthen or disrupt synchrony. In addition, we examine whether the imputed interpopulation differences in survival can generate population-level consequences. The colony where individuals travel further during the breeding season had slightly lower and more variable rates of survival, indicative of individuals experiencing greater carry-over effects. Fluctuations in survival were highly synchronous between the colonies, but neither synchronous, nor asynchronous, variation could be strongly attributed to fluctuations in local mean wind speeds. Finally, we demonstrate that the imputed interpopulation differences in rates of survival could lead to considerable differences in population growth. We hypothesise that the observed interpopulation differences in rates of adult survival reflect carry-over effects associated with foraging distances during the breeding season. More broadly, our results highlight that breeding season processes can be important for understanding interpopulation differences in the demographic rates and population dynamics of long-lived species, such as seabirds.

Trait-dependent associations between early- and late-life reproduction in a wild mammal

Early- versus late-life trade-offs are a central prediction of life-history theory that are expected to shape the evolution of ageing. While ageing is widely observed in wild vertebrates, evidence that early-late trade-offs influence ageing rates remains limited. Vertebrate reproduction is a complex, multi-stage process, yet few studies have examined how different aspects of early-life reproductive allocation shape late-life performance and ageing. Here, we use longitudinal data from a 36-year study of wild Soay sheep to show that early-life reproduction predicts late-life reproductive performance in a trait-dependent manner. Females that started breeding earlier showed more rapid declines in annual breeding probability with age, consistent with a trade-off. However, age-related declines in offspring first-year survival and birth weight were not associated with early-life reproduction. Selective disappearance was evident in all three late-life reproductive measures, with longer-lived females having higher average performance. Our results provide mixed support for early-late reproductive trade-offs and show that the way early-life reproduction shapes late-life performance and ageing can differ among reproductive traits.

The association between female reproductive performance and leukocyte telomere length in wild Soay sheep

Telomere length (TL), typically measured across a sample of blood cells, has emerged as an exciting potential marker of physiological state and of the costs of investment in growth and reproduction within evolutionary ecology. While there is mounting evidence from studies of wild vertebrates that short TL predicts raised subsequent mortality risk, the relationship between reproductive investment and TL is less clear cut, and previous studies report both negative and positive associations. In this study, we examined the relationship between TL and different aspects of maternal reproductive performance in a free-living population of Soay sheep. We find evidence for shorter TL in females that bred, and thus paid any costs of gestation, compared to females that did not breed. However, we found no evidence for any association between TL and litter size. Furthermore, females that invested in gestation and lactation actually had longer TL than females who only invested in gestation because their offspring died shortly after birth. We used multivariate models to decompose these associations into among- and within-individual effects, and discovered that within-individual effects were driving both the negative association between TL and gestation, and the positive association between TL and lactation. This suggests that telomere dynamics may reflect recent physiologically costly investment or variation in physiological condition, depending on the aspect of reproduction being investigated. Our results highlight the physiological complexity of vertebrate reproduction, and the need to better understand how and why different aspects of physiological variation underpinning life histories impact blood cell TL.

Having a better home range does not reduce the cost of reproduction in Soay sheep

A cost of reproduction may not be observable in the presence of environmental or individual heterogeneity because they affect the resources available to individuals. Individual space use is critical in determining both the resources available to individuals and the exposure to factors that mediate the value of these resources (e.g. competition and parasitism). Despite this, there has, to our knowledge, been little research to understand how between-individual differences in resource acquisition, caused by variation in space use, interact with environmental variation occurring at the population scale to influence estimates of the cost of reproduction in natural populations. We used long-term data from the St. Kilda Soay sheep population to understand how differences in age, relative home range quality, and average adult body mass, interacted with annual variation in population density and winter North Atlantic Oscillation index to influence over-winter survival and reproduction in the subsequent year, for females that had invested into reproduction to varying degrees. Our results suggest that Soay sheep females experience costs both in terms of future survival and future reproduction. However, we found little evidence that estimated costs of reproduction vary depending on relative home range quality. There are several possible causes for the lack of a relationship between relative home range quality and our estimate of the costs experienced by females. These include the potential for a correlation between relative home range quality and reproductive allocation to mask a relationship between home range quality and reproductive costs, as well as the potential for the benefit of higher quality home ranges being offset by higher densities. Nevertheless, our results raise questions regarding the presence or context-dependence of relationships between resource access and the estimated cost of reproduction.

The Contributions of Maternal Age Heterogeneity to Variance in Lifetime Reproductive Output

AbstractVariance among individuals in fitness components reflects both genuine heterogeneity between individuals and stochasticity in events experienced along the life cycle. Maternal age represents a form of heterogeneity that affects both the mean and the variance of lifetime reproductive output (LRO). Here, we quantify the relative contribution of maternal age heterogeneity to the variance in LRO using individual-level laboratory data on the rotifer Brachionus manjavacas to parameterize a multistate age × maternal age matrix model. In B. manjavacas, advanced maternal age has large negative effects on offspring survival and fertility. We used multistate Markov chains with rewards to quantify the contributions to variance in LRO of heterogeneity and of the stochasticity inherent in the outcomes of probabilistic transitions and reproductive events. Under laboratory conditions, maternal age heterogeneity contributes 26% of the variance in LRO. The contribution changes when mortality and fertility are reduced to mimic more ecologically relevant environments. Over the parameter space where populations are near stationarity, maternal age heterogeneity contributes an average of 3% of the variance. Thus, the contributions of maternal age heterogeneity and individual stochasticity can be expected to depend strongly on environmental conditions; over most of the parameter space, the variance in LRO is dominated by stochasticity.

Cooperation by necessity: condition- and density-dependent reproductive tactics of female house mice

Optimal reproductive strategies evolve from the interplay between an individual’s intrinsic state and extrinsic environment, both factors that are rarely fixed over its lifetime. Conditional breeding tactics might be one evolutionary trajectory allowing individuals to maximize fitness. We apply multi-state capture-mark-recapture analysis to a detailed 8-year data set of free-ranging house mice in a growing population to discern causes and fitness consequences of two alternative reproductive tactics in females, communal and solitary breeding. This allows us to integrate natural variation in life-history traits when analysing the expression of two alternative reproductive tactics in females. We find that communal breeding reduces average population fitness, but nevertheless increases over our 8-year study period. The tactic proves to be expressed conditionally dependent on both population density and female body mass – allowing females to breed under subpar conditions, i.e. at high density or when of low body mass. Our results contradict previous laboratory studies and emphasize the importance of studying cooperation under natural conditions, including natural variation in state-dependent survival and breeding probabilities.

An 8-year study of house mice revealed an increase in communal breeding despite reduced average population fitness. Breeding tactics were condition- and density- dependent, with only the most competitive females rearing litters solitarily.

Demographic profiles and environmental drivers of variation relate to individual breeding state in a long-lived trans-oceanic migratory seabird, the Manx shearwater

Understanding the points in a species breeding cycle when they are most vulnerable to environmental fluctuations is key to understanding interannual demography and guiding effective conservation and management. Seabirds represent one of the most threatened groups of birds in the world, and climate change and severe weather is a prominent and increasing threat to this group. We used a multi-state capture-recapture model to examine how the demographic rates of a long-lived trans-oceanic migrant seabird, the Manx shearwater Puffinus puffinus, are influenced by environmental conditions experienced at different stages of the annual breeding cycle and whether these relationships vary with an individual's breeding state in the previous year (i.e., successful breeder, failed breeder and non-breeder). Our results imply that populations of Manx shearwaters are comprised of individuals with different demographic profiles, whereby more successful reproduction is associated with higher rates of survival and breeding propensity. However, we found that all birds experienced the same negative relationship between rates of survival and wind force during the breeding season, indicating a cost of reproduction (or central place constraint for non-breeders) during years with severe weather conditions. We also found that environmental effects differentially influence the breeding propensity of individuals in different breeding states. This suggests individual spatio-temporal variation in habitat use during the annual cycle, such that climate change could alter the frequency that individuals with different demographic profiles breed thereby driving a complex and less predictable population response. More broadly, our study highlights the importance of considering individual-level factors when examining population demography and predicting how species may respond to climate change.

Dentition and body condition: tooth wear as a correlate of weight loss in roe deer

Background

In many mammalian species, once the permanent teeth have erupted, the only change to dentition is a gradual loss of tooth surface/height through wear. The crown of the teeth cannot be repaired once worn. When dental crown tissue has been depleted due to wear, the animal is expected to have a suboptimal body condition. We evaluated the role of tooth wear in causing a reduction of physical condition in adult roe deer females (Capreolus capreolus).

Results

The progressive wearing of the lower cheek teeth was assessed in a Northern Apennines (Italy) population with a new scoring scheme based on objectively described tooth characteristics (morphotypes) being either present or absent. Eviscerated body mass and mandible length, which is a good proxy for body size in roe deer, were related to the tooth wear score by the use of linear regressions. The sum of wear scores for molariform teeth correlated most strongly with body condition (i.e., eviscerated body mass/mandible length), showing the importance of the entire chewing surface for acquiring energy by food comminution, chewing, and digestion. In comparison with individuals of comparable size experiencing minor tooth wear, the body mass of those with the most advanced stage of tooth wear was decreased by 33.7%. This method was compared to the height and the hypsodonty index of the first molar, the most commonly used indices of tooth wear. The sum of molariform wear scoring scheme resulted in a more suitable index to describe the variation in body condition of roe deer.

Conclusions

Describing tooth wear patterns in hunted populations and monitoring at which tooth wear level (and therefore dental morphotype) an animal is no longer able to sustain its physical condition (i.e. when it begins to lose body mass) can be a useful tool for improving the management of the most widespread and abundant deer species in Europe. At the same time, such an approach can clarify the role of tooth wear as a proximate cause of senescence in ungulates.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12983-021-00433-w.

Context-dependent fitness costs of reproduction despite stable body mass costs in an Arctic herbivore

The cost of reproduction on demographic rates is often assumed to operate through changing body condition. Several studies have found that reproduction depresses body mass more if the current conditions are severe, such as high population densities or adverse weather, than under benign environmental conditions. However, few studies have investigated the association between the fitness components and body mass costs of reproduction. Using 25 years of individual-based capture-recapture data from Svalbard reindeer Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus, we built a novel Bayesian state-space model that jointly estimated interannual change in mass, annual reproductive success and survival, while accounting for incomplete observations. The model allowed us to partition the differential effects of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on both non-reproductive mass change and the body mass cost of reproduction, and to quantify their consequences on demographic rates. Contrary to our expectation, the body mass cost of reproduction (mean = -5.8 kg) varied little between years (CV = 0.08), whereas the between-year variation in body mass changes, that were independent of the previous year's reproductive state, varied substantially (CV = 0.4) in relation to autumn temperature and the amount of rain-on-snow in winter. This body mass loss led to a cost of reproduction on the next reproduction, which was amplified by the same environmental covariates, from a 10% reduction in reproductive success in benign years, to a 50% reduction in harsh years. The reproductive mass loss also resulted in a small reduction in survival. Our results show how demographic costs of reproduction, driven by interannual fluctuations in individual body condition, result from the balance between body mass costs of reproduction and body mass changes that are independent of previous reproductive state. We illustrate how a strong context-dependent fitness cost of reproduction can occur, despite a relatively fixed body mass cost of reproduction. This suggests that female reindeer display a very conservative energy allocation strategy, either aborting their reproductive attempt at an early stage or weaning at a relatively constant cost. Such a strategy might be common in species living in a highly stochastic and food limited environment.

Breeding responses to environmental variation are age- and trait-dependent in female Nazca boobies

Age and environment are important determinants of reproductive parameters in long-lived organisms. These factors may interact to determine breeding responses to environmental change, yet few studies have examined the environmental dependence of aging patterns across the entire life span. We do so, using a 20-yr longitudinal data set of reproductive phenotypes in long-lived female Nazca boobies (Sula granti), a monogamous seabird breeding in the eastern tropical Pacific. Young and old females may suffer from inexperience and senescence, respectively, and/or practice reproductive restraint. Breeding performance (for breeding participation, breeding date, clutch size, egg volume, and offspring production) was expected to be lower in these age classes, particularly under environmental challenge, in comparison with middle-aged breeders. Sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) represented interannual variation in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and were one proxy for environmental quality (a population count of clutch initiations was a second). Although only females lay eggs, both sexes care for eggs and nestlings, and the male partner's age, alone or in interaction with female age, was evaluated as a predictor of breeding performance. Middle-aged females performed better than young and old birds for all reproductive traits. Pairing with a young male delayed breeding (particularly for old females) and reduced clutch size, and pairing with an old male reduced offspring production. Challenging environments increased age effects on breeding probability and breeding date across young to middle ages and for offspring production across middle to old ages. However, important exceptions to the predicted patterns for clutch size and fledging success across young to middle ages suggested that trade-offs between fitness components may complicate patterns of trait expression across the life span. Relationships between breeding participation, environment, and individual quality and/or experience in young females may also contribute to unexpected patterns for clutch size and fledging success, traits expressed only in breeders. Finally, independent of age, breeding responses of female Nazca boobies to the ENSO did not follow expectations derived from oceanic forcing of primary productivity. During El Niño-like conditions, egg-laying traits (clutch size, breeding date) improved, but offspring production declined, whereas La Niña-like conditions were "poor" environments throughout the breeding cycle.

Breeding transients in capture-recapture modeling and their consequences for local population dynamics

Standard procedures for capture-mark-recapture modelling (CMR) for the study of animal demography include running goodness-of-fit tests on a general starting model. A frequent reason for poor model fit is heterogeneity in local survival among individuals captured for the first time and those already captured or seen on previous occasions. This deviation is technically termed a transience effect. In specific cases, simple, uni-state CMR modeling showing transients may allow researchers to assess the role of these transients on population dynamics. Transient individuals nearly always have a lower local survival probability, which may appear for a number of reasons. In most cases, transients arise due to permanent dispersal, higher mortality, or a combination of both. In the case of higher mortality, transients may be symptomatic of a cost of first reproduction. A few studies working at large spatial scales actually show that transients more often correspond to survival costs of first reproduction rather than to permanent dispersal, bolstering the interpretation of transience as a measure of costs of reproduction, since initial detections are often associated with first breeding attempts. Regardless of their cause, the loss of transients from a local population should lower population growth rate. We review almost 1000 papers using CMR modeling and find that almost 40% of studies fitting the searching criteria (N = 115) detected transients. Nevertheless, few researchers have considered the ecological or evolutionary meaning of the transient phenomenon. Only three studies from the reviewed papers considered transients to be a cost of first reproduction. We also analyze a long-term individual monitoring dataset (1988-2012) on a long-lived bird to quantify transients, and we use a life table response experiment (LTRE) to measure the consequences of transients at a population level. As expected, population growth rate decreased when the environment became harsher while the proportion of transients increased. LTRE analysis showed that population growth can be substantially affected by changes in traits that are variable under environmental stochasticity and deterministic perturbations, such as recruitment, fecundity of experienced individuals, and transient probabilities. This occurred even though sensitivities and elasticities of these parameters were much lower than those for adult survival. The proportion of transients also increased with the strength of density-dependence. These results have implications for ecological and evolutionary studies and may stimulate other researchers to explore the ecological processes behind the occurrence of transients in capture-recapture studies. In population models, the inclusion of a specific state for transients may help to make more reliable predictions for endangered and harvested species.

Can temporal covariation and autocorrelation in demographic rates affect population dynamics in a raptor species?

Theoretical studies suggest that temporal covariation among and temporal autocorrelation within demographic rates are important features of population dynamics. Yet, empirical studies have rarely focused on temporal covariation and autocorrelation limiting our understanding of these patterns in natural populations. This lack of knowledge restrains our ability to fully understand population dynamics and to make reliable population forecasts. In order to fill this gap, we used a long-term monitoring (15 years) of a kestrel Falco tinnunculus population to investigate covariation and autocorrelation in survival and reproduction at the population level and their impact on population dynamics. Using Bayesian joint analyses, we found support for positive covariation between survival and reproduction, but weak autocorrelation through time. This positive covariation was stronger in juveniles compared with adults. As expected for a specialized predator, we found that the reproductive performance was strongly related to an index of vole abundance explaining 86% of the temporal variation. This very strong relationship suggests that the temporally variable prey abundance may drive the positive covariation between survival and reproduction in this kestrel population. Simulations suggested that the observed effect size of covariation could be strong enough to affect population dynamics. More generally, positive covariation and autocorrelation have a destabilizing effect increasing substantially the temporal variability of population size.

Female reproduction bears no survival cost in captivity for gray mouse lemurs

The survival cost of reproduction has been revealed in many free-ranging vertebrates. However, recent studies on captive populations failed to detect this cost. Theoretically, this lack of survival/reproduction trade-off is expected when resources are not limiting, but these studies may have failed to detect the cost, as they may not have fully accounted for potential confounding effects, in particular interindividual heterogeneity. Here, we investigated the effects of current and past reproductive effort on later survival in captive females of a small primate, the gray mouse lemur. Survival analyses showed no cost of reproduction in females; and the pattern was even in the opposite direction: the higher the reproductive effort, the higher the chances of survival until the next reproductive event. These conclusions hold even while accounting for interindividual heterogeneity. In agreement with aforementioned studies on captive vertebrates, these results remind us that reproduction is expected to be traded against body maintenance and the survival prospect only when resources are so limiting that they induce an allocation trade-off. Thus, the cost of reproduction has a major extrinsic component driven by environmental conditions.

Survival costs of reproduction are mediated by parasite infection in wild Soay sheep

A trade-off between current and future fitness potentially explains variation in life-history strategies. A proposed mechanism behind this is parasite-mediated reproductive costs: individuals that allocate more resources to reproduction have fewer to allocate to defence against parasites, reducing future fitness. We examined how reproduction influenced faecal egg counts (FEC) of strongyle nematodes using data collected between 1989 and 2008 from a wild population of Soay sheep in the St. Kilda archipelago, Scotland (741 individuals). Increased reproduction was associated with increased FEC during the lambing season: females that gave birth, and particularly those that weaned a lamb, had higher FEC than females that failed to reproduce. Structural equation modelling revealed future reproductive costs: a positive effect of reproduction on spring FEC and a negative effect on summer body weight were negatively associated with overwinter survival. Overall, we provide evidence that parasite resistance and body weight are important mediators of survival costs of reproduction.

Live fast, don't die young: Survival-reproduction trade-offs in long-lived income breeders

Trade-offs between survival and reproduction are at the core of life-history theory, and essential to understanding the evolution of reproductive tactics as well as population dynamics and stability. Factors influencing these trade-offs are multiple and often addressed in isolation. Further problems arise as reproductive states and survival in wild populations are estimated based on imperfect and potentially biased observation processes, which might lead to flawed conclusions. In this study, we aimed at elucidating trade-offs between current reproduction (both pregnancy and lactation), survival and future reproduction, including the specific costs of first reproduction, in long-lived, income breeding small mammals, an under-studied group. We developed a novel statistical framework that encapsulates the breeding life cycle of females, and accounts for incomplete information on female pregnancy and lactation and imperfect and biased recapture rates. We applied this framework to longitudinal data on two sympatric, closely related bat species (Myotis daubentonii and M. nattereri). We revealed the existence of several, to our knowledge previously unknown, trends in survival and breeding of these closely related, sympatric species and detected remarkable differences in their age and costs of first reproduction, as well as their survival-reproduction trade-offs. Our results indicate that species with this type of life history exhibit a mixture of patterns expected for long-lived and short-lived animals, and between income and capital breeders. Thus, we call for more studies to be conducted in similar study systems, increasing our ability to fully understand the evolutionary origin and fitness effects of trade-offs and senescence.

Reproductive plasticity of female white-tailed deer at high density and under harsh climatic conditions

Life-history strategies of female ungulates usually depend on density-dependent and independent processes affecting body condition. Using a long-term data set on life-history traits of female white-tailed deer (2002-2014), we investigated the influence of population density and environmental factors on the reproductive effort of females. We also evaluated post-reproductive consequences on body condition using body mass, body fat, and body protein contents in the autumn following conception. We found that under high densities, females had a lower reproductive rate, which corresponds to a conservative reproduction strategy. However, females born at high density were more likely to reproduce and conceive larger litter size than females born at low density, a possible consequence of strong selective pressure in early life. Body condition was affected by reproduction; lactation had a large negative impact on body mass and body reserves, and conception, irrespectively of litter size, had a negative impact on body fat. Our long-term study demonstrates that plasticity in life-history strategies is a major determinant of reproductive potential for females living at high density and under harsh climates.

Early-life environment and differences in costs of reproduction in a preindustrial human population

Reproduction is predicted to trade-off with long-term maternal survival, but the survival costs often vary between individuals, cohorts and populations, limiting our understanding of this trade-off, which is central to life-history theory. One potential factor generating variation in reproductive costs is variation in developmental conditions, but the role of early-life environment in modifying the reproduction-survival trade-off has rarely been investigated. We quantified the effect of early-life environment on the trade-off between female reproduction and survival in pre-industrial humans by analysing individual-based life-history data for >80 birth cohorts collected from Finnish church records, and between-year variation in local crop yields, annual spring temperature, and infant mortality as proxies of early-life environment. We predicted that women born during poor environmental conditions would show higher costs of reproduction in terms of survival compared to women born in better conditions. We found profound variation between the studied cohorts in the correlation between reproduction and longevity and in the early-life environment these cohorts were exposed to, but no evidence that differences in early-life environment or access to wealth affected the trade-off between reproduction and survival. Our results therefore do not support the hypothesis that differences in developmental conditions underlie the observed heterogeneity in reproduction-survival trade-off between individuals.

Cumulative reproductive costs on current reproduction in a wild polytocous mammal

The cumulative cost of reproduction hypothesis predicts that reproductive costs accumulate over an individual's reproductive life span. While short-term costs have been extensively explored, the prevalence of cumulative long-term costs and the circumstances under which such costs occur alongside or instead of short-term costs, are far from clear. Indeed, few studies have simultaneously tested for both short-term and cumulative long-term reproductive costs in natural populations. Even in mammals, comparatively little is known about cumulative effects of previous reproduction, especially in species with high variation in offspring numbers, where costs could vary among successful reproductive events. Here, we quantify effects of previous short-term and cumulative long-term reproduction on current reproduction probability and litter size in wild female yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) and test how these effects vary with age and between two contrasting environments. We provide evidence for cumulative long-term effects: females that had both reproduced frequently and weaned large litters on average in previous years had decreased current reproduction probability. We found no evidence for short-term reproductive costs between reproductive bouts. However, females weaned larger litters when they had weaned larger litters on average in previous years and had lower current reproduction probability when their previous reproductive success was low. Together these results suggest that, alongside persistent among-individual variation, long-term reproductive history affects current reproductive success.

Variation in the vital rates of an Antarctic marine predator: the role of individual heterogeneity

Variation in life-history traits such as lifespan and lifetime reproductive output is thought to arise, in part, due to among-individual differences in the underlying probabilities of survival and reproduction. However, the stochastic nature of demographic processes can also generate considerable variation in fitness-related traits among otherwise-identical individuals. An improved understanding of life-history evolution and population dynamics therefore depends on evaluating the relative role of each of these processes. Here, we used a 33-yr data set with reproductive histories for 1,274 female Weddell seals from Erebus Bay, Antarctica, to assess the strength of evidence for among-individual heterogeneity in the probabilities of survival and reproduction, while accounting for multiple other sources of variation in vital rates. Our analysis used recent advances in Bayesian model selection techniques and diagnostics to directly compare model fit and predictive power between models that included individual effects on survival and reproduction to those that did not. We found strong evidence for costs of reproduction to both survival and future reproduction, with breeders having rates of survival and subsequent reproduction that were 3% and 6% lower than rates for non-breeders. We detected age-related changes in the rates of survival and reproduction, but the patterns differed for the two rates. Survival rates steadily declined from 0.92 at age 7 to 0.56 at the maximal age of 31 yr. In contrast, reproductive rates increased from 0.68 at age 7 to 0.79 at age 16 and then steadily declined to 0.37 for the oldest females. Models that included individual effects explained more variation in observed life histories and had better estimated predictive power than those that did not, indicating their importance in understanding sources of variation among individuals in life-history traits. We found that among-individual heterogeneity in survival was small relative to that for reproduction. Our study, which found patterns of variation in vital rates that are consistent with a series of predictions from life-history theory, is the first to provide a thorough assessment of variation in important vital rates for a long-lived, high-latitude marine mammal while taking full advantage of recent developments in model evaluation.

Hoopoe males experience intra-seasonal while females experience inter-seasonal reproductive costs

Reproductive and survival costs due to reproductive investment are a central element for the evolution of life histories. Both intra- (reduction of reproductive performance of second brood due to investment in first brood) and inter-seasonal costs (reduction of reproductive performance or annual survival due to reproductive investment in preceding year) may appear in multiple breeding species. Knowledge about how trade-offs within and between seasons shape individual trajectories and influence fitness are crucial in life-history evolution, yet intra- and inter-seasonal reproductive costs are rarely analysed simultaneously. We investigated sex-specific differences in intra- and inter-seasonal reproductive and survival costs in response to previous reproductive effort in a monogamous, double-brooding bird, the hoopoe (Upupa epops), accounting for heterogeneity in individual and annual quality. Intra-seasonal reproductive costs were detected in males and inter-seasonal reproductive and survival costs were detected in females. In males, the probability of being a successful double breeder was negatively correlated with the number of hatchlings produced in the first brood. In females, the number of fledglings raised in the first brood was negatively correlated with the reproductive effort in the preceding season. Female annual survival was also negatively influenced by the number of broods produced in the previous reproductive season. Most of these reproductive costs were detected only in years with low productivity, suggesting that costs become evident when environmental conditions are harsh. Our results illustrate how different investment in current vs. future reproduction and survival shape different life-history strategies in males and females of a monogamous bird species.

Individual quality and age but not environmental or social conditions modulate costs of reproduction in a capital breeder

Costs associated with reproduction are widely known to play a role in the evolution of reproductive tactics with consequences to population and eco-evolutionary dynamics. Evaluating these costs as they pertain to species in the wild remains an important goal of evolutionary ecology. Individual heterogeneity, including differences in individual quality (i.e., among-individual differences in traits associated with survival and reproduction) or state, and variation in environmental and social conditions can modulate the costs of reproduction; however, few studies have considered effects of these factors simultaneously. Taking advantage of a detailed, long-term dataset for a population of feral horses (Sable Island, Nova Scotia, Canada), we address the question of how intrinsic (quality, age), environmental (winter severity, location), and social conditions (group size, composition, sex ratio, density) influence the costs of reproduction on subsequent reproduction. Individual quality was measured using a multivariate analysis on a combination of four static and dynamic traits expected to depict heterogeneity in individual performance. Female quality and age interacted with reproductive status of the previous year to determine current reproductive effort, while no effect of social or environmental covariates was found. High-quality females showed higher probabilities of giving birth and weaning their foal regardless of their reproductive status the previous year, while those of lower quality showed lower probabilities of producing foals in successive years. Middle-aged (prime) females had the highest probability of giving birth when they had not reproduced the year before, but no such relationship with age was found among females that had reproduced the previous year, indicating that prime-aged females bear higher costs of reproduction. We show that individual quality and age were key factors modulating the costs of reproduction in a capital breeder but that environmental or social conditions were not, highlighting the importance of considering multiple factors when studying costs of reproduction.

Climate-driven vital rates do not always mean climate-driven population

Current climatic changes have increased the need to forecast population responses to climate variability. A common approach to address this question is through models that project current population state using the functional relationship between demographic rates and climatic variables. We argue that this approach can lead to erroneous conclusions when interpopulation dispersal is not considered. We found that immigration can release the population from climate-driven trajectories even when local vital rates are climate dependent. We illustrated this using individual-based data on a trans-equatorial migratory seabird, the Scopoli's shearwater Calonectris diomedea, in which the variation of vital rates has been associated with large-scale climatic indices. We compared the population annual growth rate λ_i , estimated using local climate-driven parameters with ρ_i , a population growth rate directly estimated from individual information and that accounts for immigration. While λ_i varied as a function of climatic variables, reflecting the climate-dependent parameters, ρ_i did not, indicating that dispersal decouples the relationship between population growth and climate variables from that between climatic variables and vital rates. Our results suggest caution when assessing demographic effects of climatic variability especially in open populations for very mobile organisms such as fish, marine mammals, bats, or birds. When a population model cannot be validated or it is not detailed enough, ignoring immigration might lead to misleading climate-driven projections.

Older conservatives: reproduction in female Alpine chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra) is increasingly risk-averse with age

In long-lived mammals, costs of reproduction may vary with age. The terminal investment hypothesis predicts greater reproductive effort as females approach the end of their life expectancy. We monitored 97 individually marked female Alpine chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra (L., 1758)) between 2007 and 2013 to determine how age-specific reproduction affected body mass and subsequent reproductive success. We captured and weighed females between April and August and monitored reproductive success from April to October through mother–kid associations. Reproductive success was strongly age-dependent and peaked at 70% for prime-aged females (4–7 years). Reproductive senescence began at 8 years, earlier than reported by other studies of ungulates. There was no clear evidence of reproductive costs in any age class. Reproductive success was very heterogeneous for old females, suggesting variability in the onset of senescence. Old females were less likely to reproduce in poor years despite being heavier than prime-aged females, suggesting reproductive restraint in late life rather than terminal investment. Female mass remained stable from May to August with no effect of lactation. Our results suggest that chamois reproductive strategy becomes increasingly conservative with age, resulting in no detectable costs of reproduction.

What shapes fitness costs of reproduction in long-lived iteroparous species? A case study on the Alpine ibex

The fitness costs of reproduction can be masked by individual differences, and may only become apparent during adverse environmental conditions. Individual differences, however, are usually assessed by reproductive success, so how fitness costs are influenced by the interplay between the environmental context and overall individual differences requires further investigation. Here, we evaluated fitness costs of reproduction based on 15 yr of monitoring of individual Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) during a period when the population was affected by a severe disease outbreak (pneumonia). We quantified fitness costs using a novel multi-event capture-mark-recapture (CMR) modeling approach that accounted for uncertainty in reproductive status to estimate the survival and reproductive success of female ibex while also accounting for overall individual heterogeneity using mixture models. Our results show that the ability of females to reproduce was highly heterogeneous. In particular, one group including 76% of females had a much higher probability of giving birth annually (between 0.66 and 0.77, depending on the previous reproductive status) than females of the second group (24% of females, between 0 and 0.05 probability of giving birth annually). Low reproductive costs in terms of future reproduction occurred and were independent of the pneumonia outbreak. There was no survival cost of reproduction either before or after the epizootic, but the cost was high during the epizootic. Our findings indicate that adverse environmental conditions, such as disease outbreaks, may lead to survival costs of reproduction in long-lived species and select against females that have a high reproductive effort. Thereby, the occurrence of adverse conditions increases the diversity of reproductive tactics within a population.

Modelling survival and breeding dispersal to unobservable nest sites

Context Demographic parameters in wildlife populations are typically estimated by monitoring a limited number of individuals in observable sites and assuming that these are representative of the whole population. If individuals permanently disperse to unobservable breeding sites, recruitment and immature survival are expected to be negatively biased and breeding-site fidelity cannot be investigated. Aims To develop a method to obtain unbiased estimated of survival, recruitment and breeding dispersal when individuals can move to, or recruit in, unobservable sites. Methods We used the flexibility of multi-event capture–recapture models to estimate dispersal and recruitment to unobservable sites, merging observations made at two sites within the same breeding locations. We illustrated the model with data on little penguin (Eudyptula minor) breeding in artificial as well as in natural nests. Natural nests are unknown or inaccessible and birds in these sites remain unobservable. Encounters at beaches surrounding the colony suggested that marked animals can permanently move to unobservable nests. We built the multi-event model considering two possible states of the individuals (alive breeding in a nest box and alive in a natural nest) and three types of observations (encountered at a nest only, encountered at the beach only and encountered at both places). This model ensured that the breeding dispersal to unobservable places became estimable. Key results Results indicate that the estimated survival was 8% higher than when recaptures at artificial nests were analysed alone. Also, fidelity to artificial nests was 12% lower than to natural nests. This might reflect the greater availability of natural sites or, alternatively, a heterogeneity between these two types of nest. Conclusions We obtained an estimate of local survival of little penguins breeding at Penguin Island that incorporates the permanent migration to unobservable sites and found an asymmetric dispersion towards natural nests. Implication Our conclusions suggest a need for more careful treatment of data derived from artificial sites alone, as demographic parameters might be underestimated if animals prefer natural breeding sites or if they are in greater proportion compared with artificial ones. The analytical approach presented can be applied to many biological systems, when animals might move into inaccessible or unobservable breeding sites.

Individual heterogeneity and offspring sex affect the growth-reproduction trade-off in a mammal with indeterminate growth

Reproduction can lead to a trade-off with growth, particularly when individuals reproduce before completing body growth. Kangaroos have indeterminate growth and may always face this trade-off. We combined an experimental manipulation of reproductive effort and multi-year monitoring of a large sample size of marked individuals in two populations of eastern grey kangaroos to test the predictions (1) that reproduction decreases skeletal growth and mass gain and (2) that mass loss leads to reproductive failure. We also tested if sex-allocation strategies influenced these trade-offs. Experimental reproductive suppression revealed negative effects of reproduction on mass gain and leg growth from 1 year to the next. Unmanipulated females, however, showed a positive correlation between number of days lactating and leg growth over periods of 2 years and longer, suggesting that over the long term, reproductive costs were masked by individual heterogeneity in resource acquisition. Mass gain was necessary for reproductive success the subsequent year. Although mothers of daughters generally lost more mass than females nursing sons, mothers in poor condition experienced greater mass gain and arm growth if they had daughters than if they had sons. The strong links between individual mass changes and reproduction suggest that reproductive tactics are strongly resource-dependent.

What shall I do now? State-dependent variations of life-history traits with aging in Wandering Albatrosses

Allocation decisions depend on an organism's condition which can change with age. Two opposite changes in life-history traits are predicted in the presence of senescence: either an increase in breeding performance in late age associated with terminal investment or a decrease due to either life-history trade-offs between current breeding and future survival or decreased efficiency at old age. Age variation in several life-history traits has been detected in a number of species, and demographic performances of individuals in a given year are influenced by their reproductive state the previous year. Few studies have, however, examined state-dependent variation in life-history traits with aging, and they focused mainly on a dichotomy of successful versus failed breeding and non-breeding birds. Using a 50-year dataset on the long-lived quasi-biennial breeding wandering albatross, we investigated variations in life-history traits with aging according to a gradient of states corresponding to potential costs of reproduction the previous year (in ascending order): non-breeding birds staying at sea or present at breeding grounds, breeding birds that failed early, late or were successful. We used multistate models to study survival and decompose reproduction into four components (probabilities of return, breeding, hatching, and fledging), while accounting for imperfect detection. Our results suggest the possible existence of two strategies in the population: strict biennial breeders that exhibited almost no reproductive senescence and quasi-biennial breeders that showed an increased breeding frequency with a strong and moderate senescence on hatching and fledging probabilities, respectively. The patterns observed on survival were contrary to our predictions, suggesting an influence of individual quality rather than trade-offs between reproduction and survival at late ages. This work represents a step further into understanding the evolutionary ecology of senescence and its relationship with costs of reproduction at the population level. It paves the way for individual-based studies that could show the importance of intra-population heterogeneity in those processes.