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Horswill C, Warwick‐Evans V, Esmonde NPG, Reid N, Kirk H, Siddiqi‐Davies KR, Josey SA, Wood MJ. Interpopulation differences and temporal synchrony in rates of adult survival between two seabird colonies that differ in population size and distance to foraging grounds. Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e10455. [PMID: 37799448 PMCID: PMC10547933 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10455] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/27/2022] [Revised: 06/16/2023] [Accepted: 08/17/2023] [Indexed: 10/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Understanding the processes that drive interpopulation differences in demography and population dynamics is central to metapopulation ecology. In colonial species, populations are limited by local resource availability. However, individuals from larger colonies will travel greater distances to overcome density-dependent competition. Consequently, these individuals may also experience greater carry-over effects and interpopulation differences in demography. To test this prediction, we use mark-recapture data collected over four decades from two breeding colonies of a seabird, the Manx shearwater (Puffinus puffinus), that exhibit strong spatial overlap throughout the annual cycle but differ in population size and maximum foraging distances. We quantify interpopulation differences and synchrony in rates of survival and assess whether local mean wind speeds act to strengthen or disrupt synchrony. In addition, we examine whether the imputed interpopulation differences in survival can generate population-level consequences. The colony where individuals travel further during the breeding season had slightly lower and more variable rates of survival, indicative of individuals experiencing greater carry-over effects. Fluctuations in survival were highly synchronous between the colonies, but neither synchronous, nor asynchronous, variation could be strongly attributed to fluctuations in local mean wind speeds. Finally, we demonstrate that the imputed interpopulation differences in rates of survival could lead to considerable differences in population growth. We hypothesise that the observed interpopulation differences in rates of adult survival reflect carry-over effects associated with foraging distances during the breeding season. More broadly, our results highlight that breeding season processes can be important for understanding interpopulation differences in the demographic rates and population dynamics of long-lived species, such as seabirds.
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Affiliation(s)
- C. Horswill
- ZSL Institute of ZoologyLondonUK
- Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, Centre for Biodiversity and Environmental ResearchUniversity College LondonLondonUK
| | | | - N. P. G. Esmonde
- School of Biological SciencesQueen's University BelfastBelfastUK
| | - N. Reid
- School of Biological SciencesQueen's University BelfastBelfastUK
| | - H. Kirk
- Interdisciplinary Conservation Science Group, Centre for Urban ResearchRMIT UniversityMelbourneVictoriaAustralia
| | | | | | - M. J. Wood
- University of GloucestershireCheltenhamUK
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Sallée JB, Abrahamsen EP, Allaigre C, Auger M, Ayres H, Badhe R, Boutin J, Brearley JA, de Lavergne C, ten Doeschate AMM, Droste ES, du Plessis MD, Ferreira D, Giddy IS, Gülk B, Gruber N, Hague M, Hoppema M, Josey SA, Kanzow T, Kimmritz M, Lindeman MR, Llanillo PJ, Lucas NS, Madec G, Marshall DP, Meijers AJS, Meredith MP, Mohrmann M, Monteiro PMS, Mosneron Dupin C, Naeck K, Narayanan A, Naveira Garabato AC, Nicholson SA, Novellino A, Ödalen M, Østerhus S, Park W, Patmore RD, Piedagnel E, Roquet F, Rosenthal HS, Roy T, Saurabh R, Silvy Y, Spira T, Steiger N, Styles AF, Swart S, Vogt L, Ward B, Zhou S. Southern ocean carbon and heat impact on climate. Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci 2023; 381:20220056. [PMID: 37150205 PMCID: PMC10164461 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2022.0056] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/17/2022] [Accepted: 02/24/2023] [Indexed: 05/09/2023]
Abstract
The Southern Ocean greatly contributes to the regulation of the global climate by controlling important heat and carbon exchanges between the atmosphere and the ocean. Rates of climate change on decadal timescales are therefore impacted by oceanic processes taking place in the Southern Ocean, yet too little is known about these processes. Limitations come both from the lack of observations in this extreme environment and its inherent sensitivity to intermittent processes at scales that are not well captured in current Earth system models. The Southern Ocean Carbon and Heat Impact on Climate programme was launched to address this knowledge gap, with the overall objective to understand and quantify variability of heat and carbon budgets in the Southern Ocean through an investigation of the key physical processes controlling exchanges between the atmosphere, ocean and sea ice using a combination of observational and modelling approaches. Here, we provide a brief overview of the programme, as well as a summary of some of the scientific progress achieved during its first half. Advances range from new evidence of the importance of specific processes in Southern Ocean ventilation rate (e.g. storm-induced turbulence, sea-ice meltwater fronts, wind-induced gyre circulation, dense shelf water formation and abyssal mixing) to refined descriptions of the physical changes currently ongoing in the Southern Ocean and of their link with global climate. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean: the state of the art and future priorities'.
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Affiliation(s)
- The SO-CHIC consortium
- Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
| | - J. B. Sallée
- Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
| | | | - C. Allaigre
- Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
| | - M. Auger
- Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
| | - H. Ayres
- University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - R. Badhe
- European Polar Board, Den Haag, The Netherlands
| | - J. Boutin
- Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
| | | | - C. de Lavergne
- Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
| | - A. M. M. ten Doeschate
- AirSea Laboratory and Ryan Institute, School of Natural Sciences, University of Galway, Galway, Ireland
- Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada
| | - E. S. Droste
- Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
| | - M. D. du Plessis
- Department of Marine Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | | | - I. S. Giddy
- Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, South Africa
| | - B. Gülk
- Department of Marine Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | | | | | - M. Hoppema
- Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
| | - S. A. Josey
- National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK
| | - T. Kanzow
- Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
| | - M. Kimmritz
- Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
| | | | - P. J. Llanillo
- Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
| | | | - G. Madec
- Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
| | | | | | | | - M. Mohrmann
- Department of Marine Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - P. M. S. Monteiro
- Southern Ocean Carbon-Climate Observatory (SOCCO), CSIR, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - C. Mosneron Dupin
- Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
| | - K. Naeck
- Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
| | - A. Narayanan
- Department of Marine Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | | | - S-A. Nicholson
- Southern Ocean Carbon-Climate Observatory (SOCCO), CSIR, Cape Town, South Africa
| | | | - M. Ödalen
- GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany
| | - S. Østerhus
- Norwegian Research Centre (NORCE), Bergen, Norway
| | - W. Park
- GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany
- IBS Center for Climate Physics and Department of Climate System, Pusan National University, Busan, Republic of Korea
| | | | - E. Piedagnel
- Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
| | - F. Roquet
- Department of Marine Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - H. S. Rosenthal
- Department of Marine Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | | | - R. Saurabh
- Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
| | - Y. Silvy
- Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
| | - T. Spira
- Department of Marine Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - N. Steiger
- Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
| | | | - S. Swart
- Department of Marine Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, South Africa
| | - L. Vogt
- Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
| | - B. Ward
- AirSea Laboratory and Ryan Institute, School of Natural Sciences, University of Galway, Galway, Ireland
| | - S. Zhou
- British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
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Abstract
The Mediterranean Sea is a mid-latitude marginal sea, particularly responsive to climate change as reported by recent studies. The Sicily Channel is a choke point separating the sea in two main basins, the Eastern Mediterranean Sea and the Western Mediterranean Sea. Here, we report and analyse a long-term record (1993–2016) of the thermohaline properties of the Intermediate Water that crosses the Sicily Channel, showing increasing temperature and salinity trends much stronger than those observed at intermediate depths in the global ocean. We investigate the causes of the observed trends and in particular determine the role of a changing climate over the Eastern Mediterranean, where the Intermediate Water is formed. The long-term Sicily record reveals how fast the response to climate change can be in a marginal sea like the Mediterranean Sea compared to the global ocean, and demonstrates the essential role of long time series in the ocean.
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Affiliation(s)
- K Schroeder
- CNR-ISMAR, Venice, Trieste, La Spezia, Italy.
| | - J Chiggiato
- CNR-ISMAR, Venice, Trieste, La Spezia, Italy
| | - S A Josey
- National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton Waterfront Campus, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK
| | - M Borghini
- CNR-ISMAR, Venice, Trieste, La Spezia, Italy
| | - S Aracri
- CNR-ISMAR, Venice, Trieste, La Spezia, Italy
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