When should we expect early bursts of trait evolution in comparative data? Predictions from an evolutionary food web model

Evolutionary trends of reproductive phenotype in Cycadales: an analysis of morphological evolution in Ceratozamia

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The size and shape of reproductive structures is especially relevant in evolution because these characters are directly related to the capacity for pollination and seed dispersal, a process that plays a basic role in evolutionary patterns. The evolutionary trajectories of reproductive phenotypes in gymnosperms have received special attention in terms of pollination and innovations related to the emergence of the spermatophytes. However, variability of reproductive structures, evolutionary trends and the role of environment in the evolution of cycad species have not been well documented and explored. This study considered this topic under an explicitly phylogenetic and evolutionary approach that included a broad sampling of reproductive structures in the genus Ceratozamia.

METHODS

We sampled 1400 individuals of 36 Ceratozamia species to explore the evolutionary pattern and identify and evaluate factors that potentially drove their evolution. We analysed characters for both pollen and ovulate strobili within a phylogenetic framework using different methods and characters (i.e. molecular and both quantitative and qualitative morphological) to infer phylogenetic relationships. Using this phylogenetic framework, evolutionary models of trait evolution for strobilar size were evaluated. In addition, quantitative morphological variation and its relation to environmental variables across species were analysed.

KEY RESULTS

We found contrasting phylogenetic signals between characters of pollen and ovulate strobili. These structures exhibited high morphological disparity in several characters related to size. Results of analyses of evolutionary trajectories suggested a stabilizing selection model. With regard to phenotype-environment, the analysis produced mixed results and differences for groups in the vegetation type where the species occur; however, a positive relationship with climatic variables was found.

CONCLUSIONS

The integrated approach synthesized reproductive phenotypic variation with current phylogenetic hypotheses and provided explicit statements of character evolution. The characters of volume for ovulate strobili were the most informative, and could provide a reference for further study of the evolutionary complexity in Ceratozamia. Finally, heterogeneous environments, which are under changing weather conditions, promote variability of reproductive structures.

Genome and life-history evolution link bird diversification to the end-Cretaceous mass extinction

Complex patterns of genome evolution associated with the end-Cretaceous [Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg)] mass extinction limit our understanding of the early evolutionary history of modern birds. Here, we analyzed patterns of avian molecular evolution and identified distinct macroevolutionary regimes across exons, introns, untranslated regions, and mitochondrial genomes. Bird clades originating near the K-Pg boundary exhibited numerous shifts in the mode of molecular evolution, suggesting a burst of genomic heterogeneity at this point in Earth's history. These inferred shifts in substitution patterns were closely related to evolutionary shifts in developmental mode, adult body mass, and patterns of metabolic scaling. Our results suggest that the end-Cretaceous mass extinction triggered integrated patterns of evolution across avian genomes, physiology, and life history near the dawn of the modern bird radiation.

Shark mandible evolution reveals patterns of trophic and habitat-mediated diversification

Environmental controls of species diversity represent a central research focus in evolutionary biology. In the marine realm, sharks are widely distributed, occupying mainly higher trophic levels and varied dietary preferences, mirrored by several morphological traits and behaviours. Recent comparative phylogenetic studies revealed that sharks present a fairly uneven diversification across habitats, from reefs to deep-water. We show preliminary evidence that morphological diversification (disparity) in the feeding system (mandibles) follows these patterns, and we tested hypotheses linking these patterns to morphological specialisation. We conducted a 3D geometric morphometric analysis and phylogenetic comparative methods on 145 specimens representing 90 extant shark species using computed tomography models. We explored how rates of morphological evolution in the jaw correlate with habitat, size, diet, trophic level, and taxonomic order. Our findings show a relationship between disparity and environment, with higher rates of morphological evolution in reef and deep-water habitats. Deep-water species display highly divergent morphologies compared to other sharks. Strikingly, evolutionary rates of jaw disparity are associated with diversification in deep water, but not in reefs. The environmental heterogeneity of the offshore water column exposes the importance of this parameter as a driver of diversification at least in the early part of clade history.

Complex adaptive landscape for a "Simple" structure: The role of trade-offs in the evolutionary dynamics of mandibular shape in ground squirrels

Trade-offs are inherent features of many biomechanical systems and are often seen as evolutionary constraints. Structural decoupling may provide a way to escape those limits in some systems but not for structures that transmit large forces, such as mammalian mandibles. For such structures to evolve in multiple directions on a complex adaptive landscape, different regions must change shape while maintaining structural integrity. We evaluated the complexity of the adaptive landscape for mandibular shape in Marmotini, a lineage of ground squirrels that varies in the proportions of seeds and foliage in their diets, by comparing the fit of models based on traits that predict changes in mandibular loading. The adaptive landscape was more complex than predicted by a two-peak model with a single dietary shift. The large number of adaptive peaks reflects a high diversity of directions of shape evolution. The number of adaptive peaks also reflects a multiplicity of functional trade-offs posed by the conflicting demands of processing foods with various combinations of material properties. The ability to balance trade-offs for diets with different proportions of the same foods may account for diversification and disparity of lineages in heterogeneous environments. Rather than constraints, trade-offs may be the impetus of evolutionary change.

Ecological and Phenotypic Diversification after A Continental Invasion in Neotropical Freshwater Stingrays

Habitat transitions are key potential explanations for why some lineages have diversified and others have not - from Anolis lizards to Darwin's finches. The ecological ramifications of marine-to-freshwater transitions for fishes suggest evolutionary contingency: some lineages maintain their ancestral niches in novel habitats (niche conservatism), whereas others alter their ecological role. However, few studies have considered phenotypic, ecological, and lineage diversification concurrently to explore this issue. Here, we investigated the macroevolutionary history of the taxonomically and ecologically diverse Neotropical freshwater river rays (subfamily Potamotrygoninae), which invaded and diversified in the Amazon and other South American rivers during the late Oligocene to early Miocene. We generated a time-calibrated, multi-gene phylogeny for Potamotrygoninae and reconstructed evolutionary patterns of diet specialization. We measured functional morphological traits relevant for feeding and used comparative phylogenetic methods to examine how feeding morphology diversified over time. Potamotrygonine trophic and phenotypic diversity are evenly partitioned (non-overlapping) among internal clades for most of their history, until 20-16 mya, when more recent diversification suggests increasing overlap among phenotypes. Specialized piscivores (Heliotrygon and Paratrygon) evolved early in the history of freshwater stingrays, while later trophic specialization (molluscivory, insectivory, and crustacivory) evolved in the genus Potamotrygon. Potamotrygonins demonstrate ecological niche lability in diets and feeding apparatus; however, diversification has mostly been a gradual process through time. We suggest that competition is unlikely to have limited the potamotrygonine invasion and diversification in South America.

Macroevolutionary ecomorphology of the Carnivora skull: adaptations and constraints in the extant species

The mammalian order Carnivora is characterized by a broad taxonomic and ecological diversity. By using a large sample of extant species, we tested the impact of ecological factors on carnivoran skull (cranium and mandible) morphology, taking advantage of a combined geometric morphometrics and comparative method approach. We implemented several evolutionary models to account for different tempo and mode of evolution in size and shape data. These models validated the association between skull morphology and diet at the interspecific scale. The functional distinction between pinniped (aquatic) and fissiped (mostly terrestrial) taxa was found valid only in mandible shape and cranial size. High levels of morphological disparity and evolutionary rates were identified in specialized dietary groups, and positive association between rates and disparity was found for skull size. Cranium and mandible showed consistent patterns of covariation that reflect constrained functional processes, which stabilize the ecomorphological evolution of Carnivora. Aquatic adaptations allowed carnivorans to invade and persist within novel regions of the mandibular morphospace. This ecological shift did not increase morphological disparity but occurred at a faster rate than in terrestrial species. Those species exhibit a stronger level of cranio-mandibular covariation due to constraints imposed by more demanding masticatory adaptations.

Functional correlates of skull shape in Chiroptera: feeding and echolocation adaptations

Morphological, functional, and behavioral adaptations of bats are among the most diverse within mammals. A strong association between bat skull morphology and feeding behavior has been suggested previously. However, morphological variation related to other drivers of adaptation, in particular echolocation, remains understudied. We assessed variation in skull morphology with respect to ecology (diet and emission type) and function (bite force, masticatory muscles and echolocation characteristics) using geometric morphometrics and comparative methods. Our study suggests that variation in skull shape of 10 bat families is the result of adaptations to broad dietary categories and sound emission types (oral or nasal). Skull shape correlates with echolocation parameters only in a subsample of insectivorous species, possibly because they (almost) entirely rely on this sensory system for locating and capturing prey. Insectivores emitting low frequencies are characterized by a ventrally tilted rostrum, a trait not associated with feeding parameters. This result questions the validity of a trade-off between feeding and echolocation function. Our study advances understanding of the relationship between skull morphology and specific features of echolocation and suggests that evolutionary constraints due to echolocation may differ between different groups within the Chiroptera.

Paleozoic ammonoid ecomorphometrics test ecospace availability as a driver of morphological diversification

The early burst model suggests that disparity rises rapidly to fill empty ecospace following clade origination or in the aftermath of a mass extinction. Early bursts are considered common features of fossil data, but neontological studies have struggled to identify them. Furthermore, tests have proven difficult because factors besides ecology can drive changes in morphology. Here, we document the ecomorphometric evolution of the extinct Ammonoidea at 1-million-year resolution, from their origination in the Early Devonian (Emsian) to the Early Triassic (Induan), over ~156 million years. This time interval encompasses six global extinction events, including two of the Big Five, and incorporates multiple ammonoid radiations. However, we find no evidence for early bursts of ecomorphological disparity. This contradicts arguments that the temporal scope, or traits measured in genomic data, conceal evidence of early bursts. Rather, early bursts may be less prevalent in fossil data than is often assumed.

Macroevolutionary analyses indicate that repeated adaptive shifts towards predatory diets affect functional diversity in Neotropical cichlids

During adaptive radiation, diversification within clades is limited by adaptation to the available ecological niches, and this may drive patterns of both trait and species diversity. However, adaptation to disparate niches may result in varied impacts on the timing, pattern and rate of morphological evolution. In this study, we examined the relationship between feeding ecology and functional diversification across a diverse clade of freshwater fishes, the Neotropical cichlids. Species dietary niches were ordinated via multivariate analysis of stomach content data. We investigated changes in the rate and pattern of morphological diversification associated with feeding, including dietary niche and degree of dietary specialization. A major division in dietary niche space was observed between predators that consume fish and macroinvertebrates vs. other groups with diets dominated by small invertebrates, detritus or vegetation. These trophic niches were strongly associated with groupings defined by functional morphospace. Clades within the piscivore/macroinvertivore group rarely transitioned to other dietary niches. Comparatively, high dietary specialization enhanced functional diversification, driving the evolution of more extreme morphologies. Divergent patterns of trophic diversification among Neotropical cichlids appear to derive from different performance demands in regional abiotic and biotic environments associated with biogeographical history.

Beyond Brownian Motion and the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process: Stochastic Diffusion Models for the Evolution of Quantitative Characters

Gaussian processes, such as Brownian motion and the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, have been popular models for the evolution of quantitative traits and are widely used in phylogenetic comparative methods. However, they have drawbacks that limit their utility. Here we describe new, non-Gaussian stochastic differential equation (diffusion) models of quantitative trait evolution. We present general methods for deriving new diffusion models and develop new software for fitting non-Gaussian evolutionary models to trait data. The theory of stochastic processes provides a mathematical framework for understanding the properties of current and future phylogenetic comparative methods. Attention to the mathematical details of models of trait evolution and diversification may help avoid some pitfalls when using stochastic processes to model macroevolution.

Contemporary Ecological Interactions Improve Models of Past Trait Evolution

Despite the fact that natural selection underlies both traits and interactions, evolutionary models often neglect that ecological interactions may, and in many cases do, influence the evolution of traits. Herein, we explore the interdependence of ecological interactions and functional traits in the pollination associations of hawkmoths and flowering plants. Specifically, we develop an adaptation of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model of trait evolution that allows us to study the influence of plant corolla depth and observed hawkmoth-plant interactions on the evolution of hawkmoth proboscis length. Across diverse modelling scenarios, we find that the inclusion of contemporary interactions can provide a better description of trait evolution than the null expectation. Moreover, we show that the pollination interactions provide more-likely models of hawkmoth trait evolution when interactions are considered at increasingly fine-scale groups of hawkmoths. Finally, we demonstrate how the results of best-fit modeling approaches can implicitly support the association between interactions and trait evolution that our method explicitly examines. In showing that contemporary interactions can provide insight into the historical evolution of hawkmoth proboscis length, we demonstrate the clear utility of incorporating additional ecological information to models designed to study past trait evolution.

Mixed evidence for early bursts of morphological evolution in extant clades

Macroevolutionary theory predicts high rates of evolution should occur early in a clade's history as species exploit ecological opportunity. Evidence from the fossil record has shown a high prevalence of early bursts in morphological evolution, but recent work has provided little evidence for early high rates in the evolution of extant clades. Here, I test the prevalence of early bursts in extant data using phylogenetic comparative methods. Existing models are extended to allow a shift from a background Brownian motion (BM) process to an early burst process within subclades of phylogenies, rather than an early burst being applied to an entire phylogenetic tree. This nested early burst model is compared to other modes of evolution that can occur within subclades, such as evolution with a constraint (Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model) and nested BM rate shift models. These relaxed models are validated using simulations and then are applied to body size evolution of three major clades of amniotes (mammals, squamates and aves) at different levels of taxonomic organization (order, family). Applying these unconstrained models greatly increases the support for early bursts within nested subclades, and so early bursts are the most common model of evolution when only one shift is analysed. However, the relative fit of early burst models is worse than models that allow for multiple shifts of the BM or OU process. No single-shift or homogenous model is superior to models of multiple shifts in BM or OU evolution, but the patterns shown by these multirate models are generally congruent with patterns expected from early bursts.

Phenotypic disparity in Iberian short-horned grasshoppers (Acrididae): the role of ecology and phylogeny

BACKGROUND

The combination of model-based comparative techniques, disparity analyses and ecomorphological correlations constitutes a powerful method to gain insight into the evolutionary mechanisms that shape morphological variation and speciation processes. In this study, we used a time-calibrated phylogeny of 70 Iberian species of short-horned grasshoppers (Acrididae) to test for patterns of morphological disparity in relation to their ecology and phylogenetic history. Specifically, we examined the role of substrate type and level of ecological specialization in driving different aspects of morphological evolution (locomotory traits, chemosensitive organs and cranial morphology) in this recent radiation.

RESULTS

We found a bimodal distribution of locomotory attributes corresponding to the two main substrate type guilds (plant vs. ground); plant-perching species tend to exhibit larger wings and thicker femora than those that remain on the ground. This suggests that life form (i.e., substrate type) is an important driving force in the evolution of morphological traits in short-horned grasshoppers, irrespective of ancestry. Substrate type and ecological specialization had no significant influence on head shape, a trait that showed a strong phylogenetic conservatism. Finally, we also found a marginal significant association between the length of antennae and the level of ecological specialization, suggesting that the development of sensory organs may be favored in specialist species.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results provide evidence that even in taxonomic groups showing limited morphological and ecological disparity, natural selection seems to play a more important role than genetic drift in driving the speciation process. Overall, this study suggests that morphostatic radiations should not necessarily be considered as "non-adaptive" and that the speciation process can bind both adaptive divergence mechanisms and neutral speciation processes related with allopatric and/or reproductive isolation.

Studying the evolutionary significance of thermal adaptation in ectotherms: The diversification of amphibians' energetics

A fundamental problem in evolutionary biology is the understanding of the factors that promote or constrain adaptive evolution, and assessing the role of natural selection in this process. Here, comparative phylogenetics, that is, using phylogenetic information and traits to infer evolutionary processes has been a major paradigm . In this study, we discuss Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models (OU) in the context of thermal adaptation in ectotherms. We specifically applied this approach to study amphibians's evolution and energy metabolism. It has been hypothesized that amphibians exploit adaptive zones characterized by low energy expenditure, which generate specific predictions in terms of the patterns of diversification in standard metabolic rate (SMR). We complied whole-animal metabolic rates for 122 species of amphibians, and adjusted several models of diversification. According to the adaptive zone hypothesis, we expected: (1) to find "accelerated evolution" in SMR (i.e., diversification above Brownian Motion expectations, BM), (2) that a model assuming evolutionary optima (i.e., an OU model) fits better than a white-noise model and (3) that a model assuming multiple optima (according to the three amphibians's orders) fits better than a model assuming a single optimum. As predicted, we found that the diversification of SMR occurred most of the time, above BM expectations. Also, we found that a model assuming an optimum explained the data in a better way than a white-noise model. However, we did not find evidence that an OU model with multiple optima fits the data better, suggesting a single optimum in SMR for Anura, Caudata and Gymnophiona. These results show how comparative phylogenetics could be applied for testing adaptive hypotheses regarding history and physiological performance in ectotherms.

Phylogenetic Analysis Supports the Aerobic-Capacity Model for the Evolution of Endothermy

The evolution of endothermy is a controversial topic in evolutionary biology, although several hypotheses have been proposed to explain it. To a great extent, the debate has centered on the aerobic-capacity model (AC model), an adaptive hypothesis involving maximum and resting rates of metabolism (MMR and RMR, respectively; hereafter "metabolic traits"). The AC model posits that MMR, a proxy of aerobic capacity and sustained activity, is the target of directional selection and that RMR is also influenced as a correlated response. Associated with this reasoning are the assumptions that (1) factorial aerobic scope (FAS; MMR/RMR) and net aerobic scope (NAS; MMR - RMR), two commonly used indexes of aerobic capacity, show different evolutionary optima and (2) the functional link between MMR and RMR is a basic design feature of vertebrates. To test these assumptions, we performed a comparative phylogenetic analysis in 176 vertebrate species, ranging from fish and amphibians to birds and mammals. Using disparity-through-time analysis, we also explored trait diversification and fitted different evolutionary models to study the evolution of metabolic traits. As predicted, we found (1) a positive phylogenetic correlation between RMR and MMR, (2) diversification of metabolic traits exceeding that of random-walk expectations, (3) that a model assuming selection fits the data better than alternative models, and (4) that a single evolutionary optimum best fits FAS data, whereas a model involving two optima (one for ectotherms and another for endotherms) is the best explanatory model for NAS. These results support the AC model and give novel information concerning the mode and tempo of physiological evolution of vertebrates.

Phylogenetic analyses suggest that diversification and body size evolution are independent in insects

BACKGROUND

Skewed body size distributions and the high relative richness of small-bodied taxa are a fundamental property of a wide range of animal clades. The evolutionary processes responsible for generating these distributions are well described in vertebrate model systems but have yet to be explored in detail for other major terrestrial clades. In this study, we explore the macro-evolutionary patterns of body size variation across families of Hexapoda (insects and their close relatives), using recent advances in phylogenetic understanding, with an aim to investigate the link between size and diversity within this ancient and highly diverse lineage.

RESULTS

The maximum, minimum and mean-log body lengths of hexapod families are all approximately log-normally distributed, consistent with previous studies at lower taxonomic levels, and contrasting with skewed distributions typical of vertebrate groups. After taking phylogeny and within-tip variation into account, we find no evidence for a negative relationship between diversification rate and body size, suggesting decoupling of the forces controlling these two traits. Likelihood-based modeling of the log-mean body size identifies distinct processes operating within Holometabola and Diptera compared with other hexapod groups, consistent with accelerating rates of size evolution within these clades, while as a whole, hexapod body size evolution is found to be dominated by neutral processes including significant phylogenetic conservatism.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on our findings we suggest that the use of models derived from well-studied but atypical clades, such as vertebrates may lead to misleading conclusions when applied to other major terrestrial lineages. Our results indicate that within hexapods, and within the limits of current systematic and phylogenetic knowledge, insect diversification is generally unfettered by size-biased macro-evolutionary processes, and that these processes over large timescales tend to converge on apparently neutral evolutionary processes. We also identify limitations on available data within the clade and modeling approaches for the resolution of trees of higher taxa, the resolution of which may collectively enhance our understanding of this key component of terrestrial ecosystems.

Decoupled evolution of floral traits and climatic preferences in a clade of Neotropical Gesneriaceae

Background

Major factors influencing the phenotypic diversity of a lineage can be recognized by characterizing the extent and mode of trait evolution between related species. Here, we compared the evolutionary dynamics of traits associated with floral morphology and climatic preferences in a clade composed of the genera Codonanthopsis, Codonanthe and Nematanthus (Gesneriaceae). To test the mode and specific components that lead to phenotypic diversity in this group, we performed a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of combined nuclear and plastid DNA sequences and modeled the evolution of quantitative traits related to flower shape and size and to climatic preferences. We propose an alternative approach to display graphically the complex dynamics of trait evolution along a phylogenetic tree using a wide range of evolutionary scenarios.

Results

Our results demonstrated heterogeneous trait evolution. Floral shapes displaced into separate regimes selected by the different pollinator types (hummingbirds versus insects), while floral size underwent a clade-specific evolution. Rates of evolution were higher for the clade that is hummingbird pollinated and experienced flower resupination, compared with species pollinated by bees, suggesting a relevant role of plant-pollinator interactions in lowland rainforest. The evolution of temperature preferences is best explained by a model with distinct selective regimes between the Brazilian Atlantic Forest and the other biomes, whereas differentiation along the precipitation axis was characterized by higher rates, compared with temperature, and no regime or clade-specific patterns.

Conclusions

Our study shows different selective regimes and clade-specific patterns in the evolution of morphological and climatic components during the diversification of Neotropical species. Our new graphical visualization tool allows the representation of trait trajectories under parameter-rich models, thus contributing to a better understanding of complex evolutionary dynamics.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12862-015-0527-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Extant-only comparative methods fail to recover the disparity preserved in the bird fossil record

Most extant species are in clades with poor fossil records, and recent studies of comparative methods show they have low power to infer even highly simplified models of trait evolution without fossil data. Birds are a well-studied radiation, yet their early evolutionary patterns are still contentious. The fossil record suggests that birds underwent a rapid ecological radiation after the end-Cretaceous mass extinction, and several smaller, subsequent radiations. This hypothesized series of repeated radiations from fossil data is difficult to test using extant data alone. By uniting morphological and phylogenetic data on 604 extant genera of birds with morphological data on 58 species of extinct birds from 50 million years ago, the "halfway point" of avian evolution, I have been able to test how well extant-only methods predict the diversity of fossil forms. All extant-only methods underestimate the disparity, although the ratio of within- to between-clade disparity does suggest high early rates. The failure of standard models to predict high early disparity suggests that recent radiations are obscuring deep time patterns in the evolution of birds. Metrics from different models can be used in conjunction to provide more valuable insights than simply finding the model with the highest relative fit.

Iterative adaptive radiations of fossil canids show no evidence for diversity-dependent trait evolution

A long-standing hypothesis in adaptive radiation theory is that ecological opportunity constrains rates of phenotypic evolution, generating a burst of morphological disparity early in clade history. Empirical support for the early burst model is rare in comparative data, however. One possible reason for this lack of support is that most phylogenetic tests have focused on extant clades, neglecting information from fossil taxa. Here, I test for the expected signature of adaptive radiation using the outstanding 40-My fossil record of North American canids. Models implying time- and diversity-dependent rates of morphological evolution are strongly rejected for two ecologically important traits, body size and grinding area of the molar teeth. Instead, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes implying repeated, and sometimes rapid, attraction to distinct dietary adaptive peaks receive substantial support. Diversity-dependent rates of morphological evolution seem uncommon in clades, such as canids, that exhibit a pattern of replicated adaptive radiation. Instead, these clades might best be thought of as deterministic radiations in constrained Simpsonian subzones of a major adaptive zone. Support for adaptive peak models may be diagnostic of subzonal radiations. It remains to be seen whether early burst or ecological opportunity models can explain broader adaptive radiations, such as the evolution of higher taxa.

Low ecological disparity in Early Cretaceous birds

Ecological divergence is thought to be coupled with evolutionary radiations, yet the strength of this coupling is unclear. When birds diversified ecologically has received much less attention than their hotly debated crown divergence time. Here, we quantify how accurately skeletal morphology can predict ecology in living and extinct birds, and show that the earliest known assemblage of birds (=pygostylians) from the Jehol Biota (≈125 Ma) was substantially impoverished ecologically. The Jehol avifauna has few representatives of highly preservable ecomorphs (e.g. aquatic forms) and a notable lack of ecomorphological overlap with the pterosaur assemblage (e.g. no large or aerially foraging pygostylians). Comparisons of the Jehol functional diversity with modern and subfossil avian assemblages show that taphonomic bias alone cannot explain the ecomorphological impoverishment. However, evolutionary simulations suggest that the constrained ecological diversity of the Early Cretaceous pygostylians is consistent with what is expected from a relatively young radiation. Regardless of the proximate biological explanation, the anomalously low functional diversity of the Jehol birds is evidence both for ecological vacancies in Cretaceous ecosystems, which were subsequently filled by the radiation of crown Aves, and for discordance between taxonomic richness and ecological diversity in the best-known Mesozoic ecosystem.

Phylogenetic approaches for studying diversification

Estimating rates of speciation and extinction, and understanding how and why they vary over evolutionary time, geographical space and species groups, is a key to understanding how ecological and evolutionary processes generate biological diversity. Such inferences will increasingly benefit from phylogenetic approaches given the ever-accelerating rates of genetic sequencing. In the last few years, models designed to understand diversification from phylogenetic data have advanced significantly. Here, I review these approaches and what they have revealed about diversification in the natural world. I focus on key distinctions between different models, and I clarify the conclusions that can be drawn from each model. I identify promising areas for future research. A major challenge ahead is to develop models that more explicitly take into account ecology, in particular the interaction of species with each other and with their environment. This will not only improve our understanding of diversification; it will also present a new perspective to the use of phylogenies in community ecology, the science of interaction networks and conservation biology, and might shift the current focus in ecology on equilibrium biodiversity theories to non-equilibrium theories recognising the crucial role of history.

Robust regression and posterior predictive simulation increase power to detect early bursts of trait evolution

A central prediction of much theory on adaptive radiations is that traits should evolve rapidly during the early stages of a clade's history and subsequently slowdown in rate as niches become saturated--a so-called "Early Burst." Although a common pattern in the fossil record, evidence for early bursts of trait evolution in phylogenetic comparative data has been equivocal at best. We show here that this may not necessarily be due to the absence of this pattern in nature. Rather, commonly used methods to infer its presence perform poorly when when the strength of the burst--the rate at which phenotypic evolution declines--is small, and when some morphological convergence is present within the clade. We present two modifications to existing comparative methods that allow greater power to detect early bursts in simulated datasets. First, we develop posterior predictive simulation approaches and show that they outperform maximum likelihood approaches at identifying early bursts at moderate strength. Second, we use a robust regression procedure that allows for the identification and down-weighting of convergent taxa, leading to moderate increases in method performance. We demonstrate the utility and power of these approach by investigating the evolution of body size in cetaceans. Model fitting using maximum likelihood is equivocal with regards the mode of cetacean body size evolution. However, posterior predictive simulation combined with a robust node height test return low support for Brownian motion or rate shift models, but not the early burst model. While the jury is still out on whether early bursts are actually common in nature, our approach will hopefully facilitate more robust testing of this hypothesis. We advocate the adoption of similar posterior predictive approaches to improve the fit and to assess the adequacy of macroevolutionary models in general.

Ecomorphological disparity in an adaptive radiation: opercular bone shape and stable isotopes in Antarctic icefishes

To assess how ecological and morphological disparity is interrelated in the adaptive radiation of Antarctic notothenioid fish we used patterns of opercle bone evolution as a model to quantify shape disparity, phylogenetic patterns of shape evolution, and ecological correlates in the form of stable isotope values. Using a sample of 25 species including representatives from four major notothenioid clades, we show that opercle shape disparity is higher in the modern fauna than would be expected under the neutral evolution Brownian motion model. Phylogenetic comparative methods indicate that opercle shape data best fit a model of directional selection (Ornstein–Uhlenbeck) and are least supported by the “early burst” model of adaptive radiation. The main evolutionary axis of opercle shape change reflects movement from a broad and more symmetrically tapered opercle to one that narrows along the distal margin, but with only slight shape change on the proximal margin. We find a trend in opercle shape change along the benthic–pelagic axis, underlining the importance of this axis for diversification in the notothenioid radiation. A major impetus for the study of adaptive radiations is to uncover generalized patterns among different groups, and the evolutionary patterns in opercle shape among notothenioids are similar to those found among other adaptive radiations (three-spined sticklebacks) promoting the utility of this approach for assessing ecomorphological interactions on a broad scale.