Seasonality and the dynamics of infectious diseases

Bot fly parasitism in mantled howler monkeys (Alouatta palliata): General patterns and climate influences

Parasitism is a strong selective pressure, and its study is crucial for predicting the persistence of host species. Mantled howler monkeys are infected by the larvae of the bot fly Cuterebra baeri. This parasitosis produces myiasis and may have negative impacts on host health, although systematic information on the dynamics of this host-parasite relationship is very limited. Currently, all available information on infection patterns of C. baeri comes from a single mantled howler monkey population (Barro Colorado Island, Panama). Therefore, in this study we describe temporal variation in infection patterns for a newly mantled howler monkey population and analyze the relationship between climate and infection likelihood. We assessed the presence of C. baeri nodules in 17 adult individuals in Los Tuxtlas for 10 months through direct observation and compiled data on ambient temperature and rainfall. Most subjects had nodules during the study and there were no differences between sexes in the number of nodules. Nodules were usually located in the neck. Prevalence and abundance of nodules peaked thrice during the study (February, April, and September), a pattern that was very similar to that of parasitism intensity (February, April, and August). Incidence closely tracked these peaks, increasing before and decreasing after them. The likelihood of nodule appearance increased when both mean and minimum temperature decreased in the 24-21 prior days to nodule appearance. It also increased with decreased rainfall in the 5-2 prior days to nodule appearance. Although only three of the eight analyzed climate variables had a significant effect on parasitosis, these results suggest that climate may affect pupal development and the access of larvae to hosts. Besides contributing data on C. baeri parasitism for a new mantled howler monkey population, our study provides novel information on the influence of environmental factors on the dynamics of host-parasite systems.

Patterns of gastrointestinal parasite infections in bighorn sheep, Ovis canadensis, with respect to host sex and seasonality

Males and females in sexually dimorphic species show differences in their physiology and behaviour due to differences in energetic investment into reproduction and soma. This means that the two sexes may show different patterns of parasitism at different times of the year. In this study, we evaluate the abundance of fecal eggs and larvae of 5 parasite types (Strongyles, Nematodirus spp., Marshallagia marshalli., Protostrongylus spp. lungworms, and Eimeria spp.) in relation to season and sex in Rocky Mountain bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis). We use fecal egg counts (FEC) as a proxy for infection intensity. Parasite FECs differed between male and female bighorn sheep and varied with season. We found pronounced fluctuations in fecal egg counts of various parasite species in males and females across different seasons and reproductive stages. Strongyle counts were significantly higher during late gestation and lactation/summer, and particularly pronounced in males. Nematodirus counts were highest during late gestation in females and during the rut in males. Marshallagia counts peaked during late gestation in females and during the rut in males. Protostrongylus spp. lungworm counts were highest during late gestation in females and in males during lactation/summer and the rut. Eimeria oocyst counts varied across seasons, with higher counts in males during the rut and in females during winter and late gestation. Additionally, significant differences in Strongyle counts were observed between coursing and tending rams, with tending rams exhibiting higher counts. We discuss why the sexes might differ in FECs and suggest that differences between FECs of the parasites across seasons may be due to different life cycles and cold tolerance of the parasites themselves.

Comparison of epidemiological characteristics between hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome patients and severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome patients

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) are both endemic in rural areas and some characteristics are similar between HFRS and SFTS, which usually lead to misdiagnosis. In this study, we summarized and compared some characteristics of HFRS and SFTS which will provide scientific information for differential diagnosis. From 2011 to 2022, a total of 4336 HFRS cases and 737 SFTS cases were reported in Zhejiang Province. Compared to SFTS, there was a higher proportion of males among HFRS cases (72.46% [3142/4336] vs. 50.88% [375/737], p = 0.000). The median age of all 4336 HFRS cases was 49 (39, 59), while the median age of SFTS cases was 66 (57, 74). In addition, the involved counties of HFRS were more than SFTS, but the number of counties affected by SFTS increased from 2011 to 2022. The majority of SFTS cases occurred in summer (from May to July), but besides summer, HFRS cases also showed a peak in winter. Finally, our results showed that the case fatality rate of SFTS was significantly higher than that of HFRS. Although there were some similarities between HFRS and SFTS, our study found several differences between them, such as gender distribution, age distribution, and seasonal distribution, which will provide scientific information for differential diagnosis of HFRS and SFTS. Further studies should be carried out to explore the mechanism of these differences.

Control of schistosomiasis by the selective competitive and predatory intervention of intermediate hosts: A mathematical modeling approach

Schistosomiasis, a freshwater-borne neglected tropical disease, disproportionately affects impoverished communities mainly in the tropical regions. Transmission involves humans and intermediate host (IH) snails. This manuscript introduces a mathematical model to probe schistosomiasis dynamics and the role of non-host snail competitors and predators as biological control agents for IH snails. The numerical analyses include investigations into steady-state conditions and reproduction numbers associated with uncontrolled scenarios, as well as scenarios involving non-host snail competitors and/or predators. Sensitivity analysis reveals that increasing snail mortality rates is a key to reducing the IH snail population and control of the transmission. Results show that specific snail competitors and/or predators with strong competition/predation abilities reduce IH snails and the subsequent infectious cercaria populations, reduce the transmission, and possibly eradicate the disease, while those with weaker abilities allow disease persistence. Hence our findings advocate for the effectiveness of snail competitors with suitable competitive pressures and/or predators with appropriate predatory abilities as nature-based solutions for combating schistosomiasis, all while preserving IH snail biodiversity. However, if these strategies are implemented at insignificant levels, IH snails can dominate, and disease persistence may pose challenges. Thus, experimental screening of potential (native) snail competitors and/or predators is crucial to assess the likely behavior of biological agents and determine the optimal biological control measures for IH snails.

An Observational Longitudinal Study on Seasonal Variations in Tourette Syndrome: Evidence for a Role of Ambient Temperature in Tic Exacerbation

Tourette syndrome (TS) is a high-incidence neurobehavioral disorder that generally begins in childhood. Several factors play a role in its etiology, including genetic influence and auto-immune activation by streptococcal infections. In general, symptoms subside after the end of adolescence, but, in a significant number of patients, they remain in adulthood. In this study, we evaluated temporal variations in the two core clinical features of TS including tics and obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) symptoms. An observational longitudinal study lasting 15 months (2017-2019) was conducted on a cohort of 24 people recruited in Milan (Italy) who were diagnosed with a subtype of TS known as obsessive-compulsive tic disorder. Inclusion criteria included a global score of the Yale global tic severity scale (Y-GTSS) > 50, a Yale-Brown obsessive-compulsive scale (Y-BOCS) global score > 15, and TS onset at least one year prior. Y-GTSS and Y-BOCS data were acquired at six time points, together with local environmental data. Tics, but not OCD symptoms, were found to be more severe in spring and summer compared with winter and autumn (p < 0.001). Changes in tics displayed an appreciable oscillation pattern in the same subject and also a clear synchrony among different subjects, indicating an external orchestrating factor. Ambient temperature showed a significant correlation with Y-GTSS measurements (p < 0.001). We argue that the increase in tics observed during hot seasons can be related to increasing ambient temperature. We believe that our results can shed light on the seasonal dynamics of TS symptomatology and provide clues for preventing their worsening over the year.

Harnessing technology for infectious disease response in conflict zones: Challenges, innovations, and policy implications

Epidemic outbreaks of infectious diseases in conflict zones are complex threats to public health and humanitarian activities that require creativity approaches of reducing their damage. This narrative review focuses on the technology intersection with infectious disease response in conflict zones, and complexity of healthcare infrastructure, population displacement, and security risks. This narrative review explores how conflict-related destruction is harmful towards healthcare systems and the impediments to disease surveillance and response activities. In this regards, the review also considered the contributions of technological innovations, such as the improvement of epidemiological surveillance, mobile health (mHealth) technologies, genomic sequencing, and surveillance technologies, in strengthening infectious disease management in conflict settings. Ethical issues related to data privacy, security and fairness are also covered. By advisement on policy that focuses on investment in surveillance systems, diagnostic capacity, capacity building, collaboration, and even ethical governance, stakeholders can leverage technology to enhance the response to infectious disease in conflict settings and, thus, protect the global health security. This review is full of information for researchers, policymakers, and practitioners who are dealing with the issues of infectious disease outbreaks in conflicts worn areas.

Epidemiological modeling of SARS-CoV-2 in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) reveals conditions for introduction and widespread transmission

Emerging infectious diseases with zoonotic potential often have complex socioecological dynamics and limited ecological data, requiring integration of epidemiological modeling with surveillance. Although our understanding of SARS-CoV-2 has advanced considerably since its detection in late 2019, the factors influencing its introduction and transmission in wildlife hosts, particularly white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), remain poorly understood. We use a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible epidemiological model to investigate the spillover risk and transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in wild and captive white-tailed deer populations across various simulated scenarios. We found that captive scenarios pose a higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 introduction from humans into deer herds and subsequent transmission among deer, compared to wild herds. However, even in wild herds, the transmission risk is often substantial enough to sustain infections. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the strength of introduction from humans influences outbreak characteristics only to a certain extent. Transmission among deer was frequently sufficient for widespread outbreaks in deer populations, regardless of the initial level of introduction. We also explore the potential for fence line interactions between captive and wild deer to elevate outbreak metrics in wild herds that have the lowest risk of introduction and sustained transmission. Our results indicate that SARS-CoV-2 could be introduced and maintained in deer herds across a range of circumstances based on testing a range of introduction and transmission risks in various captive and wild scenarios. Our approach and findings will aid One Health strategies that mitigate persistent SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in white-tailed deer populations and potential spillback to humans.

Impact of extreme weather events on the occurrence of infectious diseases in Belgium from 2011 to 2021

The role of meteorological factors, such as rainfall or temperature, as key players in the transmission and survival of infectious agents is poorly understood. The aim of this study was to compare meteorological surveillance data with epidemiological surveillance data in Belgium and to investigate the association between intense weather events and the occurrence of infectious diseases. Meteorological data were aggregated per Belgian province to obtain weekly average temperatures and rainfall per province and categorized according to the distribution of the variables. Epidemiological data included weekly cases of reported pathogens responsible for gastroenteritis, respiratory, vector-borne and invasive infections normalized per 100 000 population. The association between extreme weather events and infectious events was determined by comparing the mean weekly incidence of the considered infectious diseases after each weather event that occurred after a given number of weeks. Very low temperatures were associated with higher incidences of influenza and parainfluenza viruses, Mycoplasma pneumoniae, rotavirus and invasive Streptococcus pneumoniae and Streptococcus pyogenes infections, whereas very high temperatures were associated with higher incidences of Escherichia coli, Salmonella spp., Shigella spp., parasitic gastroenteritis and Borrelia burgdorferi infections. Very heavy rainfall was associated with a higher incidence of respiratory syncytial virus, whereas very low rainfall was associated with a lower incidence of adenovirus gastroenteritis. This work highlights not only the relationship between temperature or rainfall and infectious diseases but also the most extreme weather events that have an individual influence on their incidence. These findings could be used to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Effects of migratory animals on resident parasite dynamics

Migratory animals can bring parasites into resident animal (i.e., non-migratory) home ranges (transport effects) and exert trophic effects that either promote or reduce parasite exposure to resident hosts. Here, we examine the importance of these transport and trophic effects and their interactions for resident parasite dynamics. We propose that migrant transport and trophic effects are impacted by the number of migratory animals entering a resident's home range (migration intensity), the amount of time that migrants spend within a resident's home range (migration duration), and the timing of migrant-resident interactions. We then incorporate migration intensity, duration, and timing into a framework for exploring the net impact of migrant trophic and transport effects on resident animal parasite prevalence.

Exploring the seasonality and optimal control strategy of HIV/AIDS epidemic in China: The impact of seasonal testing

In this work, we investigate how the seasonal variation in the number of individuals who are tested for an HIV antibody in outpatient clinics affects the HIV transmission patterns in China, which has not been well studied. Based on the characteristics of outpatient testing data and reported cases, we establish a periodic infectious disease model to study the impact of seasonal testing on HIV transmission. The results indicate that the seasonal testing is a driving factor for the seasonality of new cases. We demonstrate the feasibility of ending the HIV/AIDS epidemic. We find that the diagnostic rates related to testing play a crucial role in controlling the size of the epidemic. Specifically, when considering minimizing both infected individuals and diagnostic rates, the level of attention paid to undiagnosed infected individuals is always positively correlated with the optimal diagnostic rates, while the optimal diagnostic rates are negatively correlated with the size of the epidemic at the terminal time.

Feasibility, reliability, and validity of physical function tests and IADL survey questions in women living in rural, highland Ethiopia

Physical function is the physical ability to fulfill one's daily roles and responsibilities. Poor physical function is detrimental to health and income-generating activities. Unfortunately, there is a lack of validated methods to measure physical function in adult women in low- and middle-income countries, including Ethiopia, the locus of this study. This study evaluated the feasibility, reliability, and validity of physical tests, including the sit-to-stand (STS) and usual gait speed (UGS) and a context-appropriate instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) survey. The results of the STS were used to calculate a muscle quality index (MQI, STS accounting for body mass and leg length). Feasibility was ascertained qualitatively based on reports from the enumerators on their ability to administer the tests. Reliability was assessed by comparing the results of the tests and questions between each visit using either Cohen's κ or Pearson's ρ. The validity of MQI was assessed using relevant participant characteristics such as age and self-reported disability. The validity of the IADL was assessed using MQI. Study participants comprised 316 women between the ages of 18 and 45 years, living in rural Tigray, Ethiopia, who had previously participated in an impact evaluation of a safety net program. Over a one-week period, participants completed the STS and UGS tests and responded to the IADL survey questions three times. MQI was determined to be a feasible, reliable, and valid physical function test for women in rural, highland Ethiopia. UGS lacked feasibility and reliability; validity was not ascertained. The IADL questions were feasible and reliable, but validity was inconclusive. In rural Ethiopia, the MQI will be a valuable tool to develop interventions for improving physical function, which will have positive impacts on health and quality of life.

Effects of microclimate on disease prevalence across an urbanization gradient

Increased temperatures associated with urbanization (the "urban heat island" effect) have been shown to impact a wide range of traits across diverse taxa. At the same time, climatic conditions vary at fine spatial scales within habitats due to factors including shade from shrubs, trees, and built structures. Patches of shade may function as microclimate refugia that allow species to occur in habitats where high temperatures and/or exposure to ultraviolet radiation would otherwise be prohibitive. However, the importance of shaded microhabitats for interactions between species across urbanized landscapes remains poorly understood. Weedy plants and their foliar pathogens are a tractable system for studying how multiple scales of climatic variation influence infection prevalence. Powdery mildew pathogens are particularly well suited to this work, as these fungi can be visibly diagnosed on leaf surfaces. We studied the effects of shaded microclimates on rates of powdery mildew infection on Plantago host species in (1) "pandemic pivot" surveys in which undergraduate students recorded shade and infection status of thousands of plants along road verges in urban and suburban residential neighborhoods, (2) monthly surveys of plant populations in 22 parks along an urbanization gradient, and (3) a manipulative field experiment directly testing the effects of shade on the growth and transmission of powdery mildew. Together, our field survey results show strong positive effects of shade on mildew infection in wild Plantago populations across urban, suburban, and rural habitats. Our experiment suggests that this relationship is causal, where microclimate conditions associated with shade promote pathogen growth. Overall, infection prevalence increased with urbanization despite a negative association between urbanization and tree cover at the landscape scale. These findings highlight the importance of taking microclimate heterogeneity into account when establishing links between macroclimate or land use context and prevalence of disease.

Coinfection frequency in water flea populations is a mere reflection of parasite diversity

In nature, parasite species often coinfect the same host. Yet, it is not clear what drives the natural dynamics of coinfection prevalence. The prevalence of coinfections might be affected by interactions among coinfecting species, or simply derive from parasite diversity. Identifying the relative impact of these parameters is crucial for understanding patterns of coinfections. We studied the occurrence and likelihood of coinfections in natural populations of water fleas (Daphnia magna). Coinfection prevalence was within the bounds expected by chance and parasite diversity had a strong positive effect on the likelihood of coinfections. Additionally, coinfection prevalence increased over the season and became as common as a single infection. Our results demonstrate how patterns of coinfection, and particularly their temporal variation, are affected by overlapping epidemics of different parasites. We suggest that monitoring parasite diversity can help predict where and when coinfection prevalence will be high, potentially leading to increased health risks to their hosts.

African swine fever in wild boar: investigating model assumptions and structure

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly virulent viral disease that affects domestic pigs and wild boar. Current ASF transmission in Europe is in part driven by wild boar populations, which act as a disease reservoir. Wild boar are abundant throughout Europe and are highly social animals with complex social organization. Despite the known importance of wild boar in ASF spread and persistence, knowledge gaps remain surrounding wild boar transmission. We developed a wild boar modelling framework to investigate the influence of contact-density functions and wild boar social structure on disease dynamics. The framework included an ordinary differential equation model, a homogeneous stochastic model and various network-based stochastic models that explicitly included wild boar social grouping. We found that power-law functions (transmission∝ density0.5) and frequency-based contact-density functions were best able to reproduce recent Baltic outbreaks; however, power-law function models predicted considerable carcass transmission, while frequency-based models had negligible carcass transmission. Furthermore, increased model heterogeneity caused a decrease in the relative importance of carcass-based transmission. The transmission pathways predicted by each model type affected the efficacy of idealized interventions, which highlights the importance of evaluating model type and structure when modelling systems with significant uncertainties.

Incidence and seasonality of Kawasaki disease in children in the Philippines, and its association with ambient air temperature

Background

Despite an unknown cause, Kawasaki disease (KD) is currently the primary leading cause of acquired heart disease in developed countries in children and has been increasing in recent years. Research efforts have explored environmental factors related to KD, but they are still unclear especially in the tropics. We aimed to describe the incidence of KD in children, assess its seasonality, and determine its association with ambient air temperature in the National Capital Region (NCR), Philippines from January 2009 to December 2019.

Methods

Monthly number of KD cases from the Philippine Pediatric Society (PPS) disease registry was collected to determine the incidence of KD. A generalized linear model (GLM) with quasi-Poisson regression was utilized to assess the seasonality of KD and determine its association with ambient air temperature after adjusting for the relevant confounders.

Results

The majority of KD cases (68.52%) occurred in children less than five years old, with incidence rates ranging from 14.98 to 23.20 cases per 100,000 population, and a male-to-female ratio of 1.43:1. Seasonal variation followed a unimodal shape with a rate ratio of 1.13 from the average, peaking in March and reaching the lowest in September. After adjusting for seasonality and long-term trend, every one-degree Celsius increase in the monthly mean temperature significantly increased the risk of developing KD by 8.28% (95% CI: 2.12%, 14.80%). Season-specific analysis revealed a positive association during the dry season (RR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.11), whereas no evidence of association was found during the wet season (RR: 1.10, 95% CI: 0.95, 1.27).

Conclusion

We have presented the incidence of KD in the Philippines which is relatively varied from its neighboring countries. The unimodal seasonality of KD and its linear association with temperature, independent of season and secular trend, especially during dry season, may provide insights into its etiology and may support enhanced KD detection efforts in the country.

Interconnecting global threats: climate change, biodiversity loss, and infectious diseases

The concurrent pressures of rising global temperatures, rates and incidence of species decline, and emergence of infectious diseases represent an unprecedented planetary crisis. Intergovernmental reports have drawn focus to the escalating climate and biodiversity crises and the connections between them, but interactions among all three pressures have been largely overlooked. Non-linearities and dampening and reinforcing interactions among pressures make considering interconnections essential to anticipating planetary challenges. In this Review, we define and exemplify the causal pathways that link the three global pressures of climate change, biodiversity loss, and infectious disease. A literature assessment and case studies show that the mechanisms between certain pairs of pressures are better understood than others and that the full triad of interactions is rarely considered. Although challenges to evaluating these interactions-including a mismatch in scales, data availability, and methods-are substantial, current approaches would benefit from expanding scientific cultures to embrace interdisciplinarity and from integrating animal, human, and environmental perspectives. Considering the full suite of connections would be transformative for planetary health by identifying potential for co-benefits and mutually beneficial scenarios, and highlighting where a narrow focus on solutions to one pressure might aggravate another.

A Five-Year Study on Infestation and Abundance of Bat Flies (Hippoboscoidea: Streblidae) Under Severe Dry Season Conditions in the Tropical Dry Forest of Yucatan, Mexico

In Mexico, few studies have explored how environmental conditions in tropical dry forests (TDF) influence bat fly load even though, according to climate change scenarios, this ecosystem will experience a drier and warmer climate. Such an extension of the dry season in these ecosystems could have dramatic consequences for biodiversity, particularly in regions with plains where animals do not have elevational climate shifts. The present study therefore evaluates the effect of prevailing environmental conditions during 2015-2019, as well as host body conditions, on the infestation and abundance of bat-specific ectoparasites and the composition and bat fly load in the dry season of a TDF in Yucatan. Since Yucatan has an essentially flat and low-lying topography, organisms cannot escape from the predicted extreme conditions with elevational shifts. This region is therefore an excellent location for assessment of the potential effects of warming. We collected 270 bat flies from 12 species. Three streblid species (Nycterophilia parnelli Wenzel, Trichobius johnsonae Wenzel, and Trichobius sparsus Kessel) are new records for Yucatan. Our overview of the dry season bat ectoparasite loads reveals low values of richness and prevalence, but high aggregation. Our models detected significant differences in ectoparasite infestation and abundance over the years, but the environmental and body host condition variables were unrelated to these. We report that pregnant females are parasitized to a greater extent by bat flies during the dry season, which generally represents the season of most significant nutritional stress.

Inferring stability and persistence in the vaginal microbiome: A stochastic model of ecological dynamics

The interplay of stochastic and ecological processes that govern the establishment and persistence of host-associated microbial communities is not well understood. Here we illustrate the conceptual and practical advantages of fitting stochastic population dynamics models to multi-species bacterial time series data. We show how the stability properties, fluctuation regimes and persistence probabilities of human vaginal microbial communities can be better understood by explicitly accommodating three sources of variability in ecological stochastic models of multi-species abundances: 1) stochastic biotic and abiotic forces, 2) ecological feedback and 3) sampling error. Rooting our modeling tool in stochastic population dynamics modeling theory was key to apply standardized measures of a community's reaction to environmental variation that ultimately depends on the nature and intensity of the intra-specific and inter-specific interaction strengths. Using estimates of model parameters, we developed a Risk Prediction Monitoring (RPM) tool that estimates temporal changes in persistence probabilities for any bacterial group of interest. This method mirrors approaches that are often used in conservation biology in which a measure of extinction risks is periodically updated with any change in a population or community. Additionally, we show how to use estimates of interaction strengths and persistence probabilities to formulate hypotheses regarding the molecular mechanisms and genetic composition that underpin different types of interactions. Instead of seeking a definition of "dysbiosis" we propose to translate concepts of theoretical ecology and conservation biology methods into practical approaches for the management of human-associated bacterial communities.

Evolution of intermediate latency strategies in seasonal parasites

Traditional mechanistic trade-offs between transmission and parasite latency period length are foundational for nearly all theories on the evolution of parasite life-history strategies. Prior theoretical studies demonstrate that seasonal host activity can generate a trade-off for obligate-host killer parasites that selects for intermediate latency periods in the absence of a mechanistic trade-off between transmission and latency period lengths. Extensions of these studies predict that host seasonal patterns can lead to evolutionary bistability for obligate-host killer parasites in which two evolutionarily stable strategies, a shorter and longer latency period, are possible. Here we demonstrate that these conclusions from previously published studies hold for non-obligate host killer parasites. That is, seasonal host activity can select for intermediate parasite latency periods for non-obligate killer parasites in the absence of a trade-off between transmission and latency period length and can maintain multiple evolutionarily stable parasite life-history strategies. These results reinforce the hypothesis that host seasonal activity can act as a major selective force on parasite life-history evolution by extending the narrower prior theory to encompass a greater range of disease systems.

Seasonal patterns of toxicity in melanoma patients treated with combination anti-PD-1 and anti-CTLA-4 immunotherapy

BACKGROUND

Immune checkpoint inhibitors are frequently associated with the development of immunotherapy-related adverse events (irAEs). The exact etiology, including the role of environmental factors, remains incompletely understood.

METHODS

We analyzed the records of 394 melanoma patients from three centers (northern and southern hemisphere). Patients had received at least one cycle of anti-PD-1/anti-CTLA-4 with a minimum follow-up of 3 months. We study the distribution and time to irAEs onset throughout the calendar year.

RESULTS

764 irAEs were recorded; the most frequent were skin rash (35%), hepatitis (32%) and colitis (30%). The irAEs incidence was the highest in autumn and winter, and the ratio for the 'number of irAEs' per 'therapies commenced' was the highest in winter and lowest in summer (2.4 and 1.7, respectively). Season-specific patterns in the time of irAEs onset were observed for pneumonitis (shorter time to onset in autumn, p = 0.025), hepatitis (shorter time to onset in spring, p = 0.016) and sarcoid-like immune reaction (shorter time to onset in autumn, p = 0.041). Season-specific patterns for early-onset irAEs were observed for hepatitis (spring, p = 0.023) and nephritis (summer, p = 0.017). Early-onset pneumonitis was more frequent in autumn-winter (p = 0.008) and early-onset nephritis in spring-summer (p = 0.004).

CONCLUSIONS

Environmental factors that are associated with particular seasons may contribute to the development of certain irAEs and suggest the potential effect of environmental triggers. The identification of these factors may enhance preventive and therapeutic strategies to reduce the morbidity of irAEs.

Resource asynchrony and landscape homogenization as drivers of virulence evolution: The case of a directly transmitted disease in a social host

Throughout the last decades, the emergence of zoonotic diseases and the frequency of disease outbreaks have increased substantially, fuelled by habitat encroachment and vectors overlapping with more hosts due to global change. The virulence of pathogens is one key trait for successful invasion. In order to understand how global change drivers such as habitat homogenization and climate change drive pathogen virulence evolution, we adapted an established individual-based model of host-pathogen dynamics. Our model simulates a population of social hosts affected by a directly transmitted evolving pathogen in a dynamic landscape. Pathogen virulence evolution results in multiple strains in the model that differ in their transmission capability and lethality. We represent the effects of global change by simulating environmental changes both in time (resource asynchrony) and space (homogenization). We found an increase in pathogenic virulence and a shift in strain dominance with increasing landscape homogenization. Our model further indicated that lower virulence is dominant in fragmented landscapes, although pulses of highly virulent strains emerged under resource asynchrony. While all landscape scenarios favoured co-occurrence of low- and high-virulent strains, the high-virulence strains capitalized on the possibility for transmission when host density increased and were likely to become dominant. With asynchrony likely to occur more often due to global change, our model showed that a subsequent evolution towards lower virulence could lead to some diseases becoming endemic in their host populations.

How does parasite environmental transmission stage concentration change before, during, and after disease outbreaks?

Outbreaks of environmentally transmitted parasites require that susceptible hosts encounter transmission stages in the environment and become infected, but we also know that transmission stages can be in the environment without triggering disease outbreaks. One challenge in understanding the relationship between environmental transmission stages and disease outbreaks is that the distribution and abundance of transmission stages outside of their hosts have been difficult to quantify. Thus, we have limited data about how changes in transmission stage abundance influence disease dynamics; moreover, we do not know whether the relationship between transmission stages and outbreaks differs among parasite species. We used digital PCR to quantify the environmental transmission stages of five parasites in six lakes in southeastern Michigan every 2 weeks from June to November 2021. At the same time, we quantified infection prevalence in hosts and host density. Our study focused on eight zooplankton host species (Daphnia spp. and Ceriodaphnia dubia) and five of their parasites from diverse taxonomic groups (bacteria, yeast, microsporidia, and oomycete) with different infection mechanisms. We found that parasite transmission stage concentration increased prior to disease outbreaks for all parasites. However, parasites differed significantly in the relative timing of peaks in transmission stage concentration and infection outbreaks. The "continuous shedder" parasites had transmission stage peaks at the same time as or slightly after the outbreak peaks. In contrast, parasites relying on host death for transmission ("obligate killers") had transmission stage peaks before outbreak peaks. For most parasites, lakes with outbreaks had higher spore concentrations than those without outbreaks, especially once an outbreak began; the exception was for a parasite, Pasteuria ramosa, with very strong genotypic specificity of infection. Overall, our results show that disease outbreaks are tightly linked to transmission stage concentration; outbreaks were preceded by increases in transmission stage concentration in the environment and then were fueled by the production of more transmission stages during the outbreak itself, with concentrations decreasing to pre-outbreak levels as outbreaks waned. Thus, tracking transmission stages in the environment improves our understanding of the drivers of disease outbreaks and reveals how parasite traits may affect these dynamics.

Helminth ecological requirements shape the impact of climate change on the hazard of infection

Outbreaks and spread of infectious diseases are often associated with seasonality and environmental changes, including global warming. Free-living stages of soil-transmitted helminths are highly susceptible to climatic drivers; however, how multiple climatic variables affect helminth species, and the long-term consequences of these interactions, is poorly understood. We used experiments on nine trichostrongylid species of herbivores to develop a temperature- and humidity-dependent model of infection hazard, which was then implemented at the European scale under climate change scenarios. Intestinal and stomach helminths exhibited contrasting climatic responses, with the former group strongly affected by temperature while the latter primarily impacted by humidity. Among the demographic traits, larval survival heavily modulated the infection hazard. According to the specific climatic responses of the two groups, climate change is expected to generate differences in the seasonal and spatial shifts of the infection hazard and group co-circulation. In the future, an intensification of these trends could create new opportunities for species range expansion and co-occurrence at European central-northern latitudes.

Global analysis of seasonal changes in trematode infection levels reveals weak and variable link to temperature

Seasonal changes in environmental conditions drive phenology, i.e., the annual timing of biological events ranging from the individual to the ecosystem. Phenological patterns and successional abundance cycles have been particularly well studied in temperate freshwater systems, showing strong and predictable synchrony with seasonal changes. However, seasonal successional changes in the abundance of parasites or their infection levels in aquatic hosts have not yet been shown to follow universal patterns. Here, using a compilation of several hundred estimates of spring-to-summer changes in infection by trematodes in their intermediate and definitive hosts, spanning multiple species and habitats, we test for general patterns of seasonal (temperature) driven changes in infection levels. The data include almost as many decreases in infection levels from spring to summer as there are increases, across different host types. Our results reveal that the magnitude of the spring-to-summer change in temperature had a weak positive effect on the concurrent change in prevalence of infection in first intermediate hosts, but no effect on the change in prevalence or abundance of infection in second intermediate or definitive hosts. This was true across habitat types and host taxa, indicating no universal effect of seasonal temperature increase on trematode infections. This surprising variation across systems suggests a predominance of idiosyncratic and species-specific responses in trematode infection levels, at odds with any clear phenological or successional pattern. We discuss possible reasons for the minimal and variable effect of seasonal temperature regimes, and emphasise the challenges this poses for predicting ecosystem responses to future climate change.

Spatio-temporal variability in transmission risk of human schistosomes and animal trematodes in a seasonally desiccating East African landscape

Different populations of hosts and parasites experience distinct seasonality in environmental factors, depending on local-scale biotic and abiotic factors. This can lead to highly heterogeneous disease outcomes across host ranges. Variable seasonality characterizes urogenital schistosomiasis, a neglected tropical disease caused by parasitic trematodes (Schistosoma haematobium). Their intermediate hosts are aquatic Bulinus snails that are highly adapted to extreme rainfall seasonality, undergoing prolonged dormancy yearly. While Bulinus snails have a remarkable capacity for rebounding following dormancy, we investigated the extent to which parasite survival within snails is diminished. We conducted an investigation of seasonal snail schistosome dynamics in 109 ponds of variable ephemerality in Tanzania from August 2021 to July 2022. First, we found that ponds have two synchronized peaks of schistosome infection prevalence and observed cercariae, though of lower magnitude in the fully desiccating than non-desiccating ponds. Second, we evaluated total yearly schistosome prevalence across an ephemerality gradient, finding ponds with intermediate ephemerality to have the highest infection rates. We also investigated dynamics of non-schistosome trematodes, which lacked synonymity with schistosome patterns. We found peak schistosome transmission risk at intermediate pond ephemerality, thus the impacts of anticipated increases in landscape desiccation could result in increases or decreases in transmission risk with global change.

Impact of periodic vaccination in SEIRS seasonal model

We study three different strategies of vaccination in an SEIRS (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible) seasonal forced model, which are (i) continuous vaccination; (ii) periodic short-time localized vaccination, and (iii) periodic pulsed width campaign. Considering the first strategy, we obtain an expression for the basic reproduction number and infer a minimum vaccination rate necessary to ensure the stability of the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) solution. In the second strategy, short duration pulses are added to a constant baseline vaccination rate. The pulse is applied according to the seasonal forcing phases. The best outcome is obtained by locating intensive immunization at inflection of the transmissivity curve. Therefore, a vaccination rate of 44.4% of susceptible individuals is enough to ensure DFE. For the third vaccination proposal, additionally to the amplitude, the pulses have a prolonged time width. We obtain a non-linear relationship between vaccination rates and the duration of the campaign. Our simulations show that the baseline rates, as well as the pulse duration, can substantially improve the vaccination campaign effectiveness. These findings are in agreement with our analytical expression. We show a relationship between the vaccination parameters and the accumulated number of infected individuals, over the years, and show the relevance of the immunization campaign annual reaching for controlling the infection spreading. Regarding the dynamical behavior of the model, our simulations show that chaotic and periodic solutions as well as bi-stable regions depend on the vaccination parameters range.

Seasonal Variation in Detection of Haemosporidia in a Bird Community: A Comparison of Nested PCR and Microscopy

In a 2-yr study on prevalence of Haemosporidia in an avian community in Ithaca, New York, USA, we tested the hypothesis that apparent seasonal variation in prevalence is influenced by the detection protocol. We confirmed a higher detection of Haemosporidia using a molecular diagnosis technique (PCR) than by microscopy; this further increased when the PCR test was triplicated. Microscopic examination and PCR techniques have different specificity and sensitivity and therefore different probabilities of detecting hemoparasites. Birds with chronic infections or sampled during winter often have very low parasitemia, and such infections may be missed by microscopy but detected by PCR. Haemosporidian prevalence was higher during the breeding season than during the nonbreeding season regardless of the method used. Detection of Leucocytozoon spp. infection from blood smears using microscopy was challenging.

Mathematical modeling of the infectious spread and outbreak dynamics of avian influenza with seasonality transmission for chicken farms

A compartmental model with a time-varying contact rate, the seasonality effect, and its corresponding nonautonomous model are investigated. The model is developed based on the six compartments: susceptible, latent, infected, asymptomatic, treated, and recovered individuals. We determine the effective reproduction number for this nonautonomous system, and analytic discussion shows that at least one positive periodic solution exists for R0>1. The model is simulated using the RK-45 numerical method, and the parameter values for the model are taken from the available literature. From the numerical results, we observe that the degree of seasonality and vaccine efficacy significantly impact the amplitude of the epidemic curve. The latent-infected phase plane shows that periodic solutions exhibit a period-doubling bifurcation as the amplitude of seasonality increases. Finally, the model outcome was compared with the actual field data and found to be consistent.

Multiple genomic solutions for local adaptation in two closely related species (sheep and goats) facing the same climatic constraints

The question of how local adaptation takes place remains a fundamental question in evolutionary biology. The variation of allele frequencies in genes under selection over environmental gradients remains mainly theoretical and its empirical assessment would help understanding how adaptation happens over environmental clines. To bring new insights to this issue we set up a broad framework which aimed to compare the adaptive trajectories over environmental clines in two domesticated mammal species co-distributed in diversified landscapes. We sequenced the genomes of 160 sheep and 161 goats extensively managed along environmental gradients, including temperature, rainfall, seasonality and altitude, to identify genes and biological processes shaping local adaptation. Allele frequencies at putatively adaptive loci were rarely found to vary gradually along environmental gradients, but rather displayed a discontinuous shift at the extremities of environmental clines. Of the 430 candidate adaptive genes identified, only 6 were orthologous between sheep and goats and those responded differently to environmental pressures, suggesting different putative mechanisms involved in local adaptation in these two closely related species. Interestingly, the genomes of the 2 species were impacted differently by the environment, genes related to signatures of selection were most related to altitude, slope and rainfall seasonality for sheep, and summer temperature and spring rainfall for goats. The diversity of candidate adaptive pathways may result from a high number of biological functions involved in the adaptations to multiple eco-climatic gradients, and a differential role of climatic drivers on the two species, despite their co-distribution along the same environmental gradients. This study describes empirical examples of clinal variation in putatively adaptive alleles with different patterns in allele frequency distributions over continuous environmental gradients, thus showing the diversity of genetic responses in adaptive landscapes and opening new horizons for understanding genomics of adaptation in mammalian species and beyond.

Climate change effects on terrestrial parasitic nematodes: Where are the knowledge gaps?

Climate change is expected to affect parasitic nematodes and hence possibly parasite-host dynamics and may have far-reaching consequences for animal health, livestock production, and ecosystem functioning. However, there has been no recent overview of current knowledge to identify how studies could contribute to a better understanding of terrestrial parasitic nematodes under changing climates. Here we screened almost 1,400 papers to review 57 experimental studies on the effects of temperature and moisture on hatching, development, survival, and behaviour of the free-living stages of terrestrial parasitic nematodes with a direct life cycle in birds and terrestrial mammals. Two major knowledge gaps are apparent. First, research should study the temperature dependency curves for hatching, development, and survival under various moisture treatments to test the interactive effect of temperature and moisture. Second, we specifically advocate for more studies that investigate how temperature, and its interaction with moisture, affect both vertical and horizontal movement of parasitic nematodes to understand infection risks. Overall, we advocate for more field experiments that test environmental effects on life-history traits and behaviour of parasitic nematodes in their free-living stages under natural and realistic circumstances. We also encourage studies to expand the range of used hosts and parasitic nematodes because 66% of results described in the available studies use sheep and cattle as hosts and 32% involve just three nematode species. This new comprehension brings attention to understudied abiotic impacts on terrestrial parasitic nematodes and will have broader implications for livestock management, wildlife conservation, and ecosystem functioning in a rapidly warming climate.

Optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis of age-structured malaria model with asymptomatic carrier and temperature variability

This paper presents an age-structured mathematical model for malaria transmission dynamics with asymptomatic carrier and temperature variability. The temperature variability function is fitted to the temperature data, and the malaria model is then fitted to the malaria cases and validated to check its suitability. Time-dependent controls were considered, including Long Lasting Insecticide Nets, treatment of symptomatic, screening and treatment of asymptomatic carriers and spray of insecticides. Pontryagin's Maximum Principle is used to derive the necessary conditions for optimal control of the disease. The numerical simulations of the optimal control problem reveal that the strategy involving the combination of all four controls is the most effective in reducing the number of infected individuals. Furthermore, the cost-effectiveness analysis shows that treatment of symptomatic, screening and treatment of asymptomatic carriers and insecticide spraying is the most cost-effective strategy to implement to control malaria transmission when available resources are limited.

Seasonality and the persistence of vector-borne pathogens

Many vector-borne diseases are affected by the seasonality of the environment. Yet, seasonality can act on distinct steps of the life cycle of the pathogen and it is often difficult to predict the influence of the periodic fluctuations of the environment on the basic reproduction ratio R0 of vector-borne pathogens. Here, we analyse a general vector-borne disease model and we account for periodic fluctuations of different components of the pathogen's life cycle. We develop a perturbation analysis framework to obtain useful approximations to evaluate the overall consequences of seasonality on the R0 of the pathogen. This analysis reveals when seasonality is expected to increase or to decrease pathogen persistence. We show that seasonality in vector density or in the biting rate of the vector can have opposite effects on persistence and we provide a useful biological explanation for this result based on the covariance between key compartments of the epidemiological model. This framework could be readily extended to explore the influence of seasonality on other components of the life cycle of vector-borne pathogens.

Local thermal adaptation and local temperature regimes drive the performance of a parasitic helminth under climate change: The case of Marshallagia marshalli from wild ungulates

Across a species' range, populations are exposed to their local thermal environments, which on an evolutionary scale, may cause adaptative differences among populations. Helminths often have broad geographic ranges and temperature-sensitive life stages but little is known about whether and how local thermal adaptation can influence their response to climate change. We studied the thermal responses of the free-living stages of Marshallagia marshalli, a parasitic nematode of wild ungulates, along a latitudinal gradient. We first determine its distribution in wild sheep species in North America. Then we cultured M. marshalli eggs from different locations at temperatures from 5 to 38°C. We fit performance curves based on the metabolic theory of ecology to determine whether development and mortality showed evidence of local thermal adaptation. We used parameter estimates in life-cycle-based host-parasite models to understand how local thermal responses may influence parasite performance under general and location-specific climate-change projections. We found that M. marshalli has a wide latitudinal and host range, infecting wild sheep species from New Mexico to Yukon. Increases in mortality and development time at higher temperatures were most evident for isolates from northern locations. Accounting for location-specific parasite parameters primarily influenced the magnitude of climate change parasite performance, while accounting for location-specific climates primarily influenced the phenology of parasite performance. Despite differences in development and mortality among M. marshalli populations, when using site-specific climate change projections, there was a similar magnitude of impact on the relative performance of M. marshalli among populations. Climate change is predicted to decrease the expected lifetime reproductive output of M. marshalli in all populations while delaying its seasonal peak by approximately 1 month. Our research suggests that accurate projections of the impacts of climate change on broadly distributed species need to consider local adaptations of organisms together with local temperature profiles and climate projections.

Seasonal changes in network connectivity and consequences for pathogen transmission in a solitary carnivore

Seasonal variation in habitat use and animal behavior can alter host contact patterns with potential consequences for pathogen transmission dynamics. The endangered Florida panther (Puma concolor coryi) has experienced significant pathogen-induced mortality and continues to be at risk of future epidemics. Prior research has found increased panther movement in Florida's dry versus wet seasons, which may affect panther population connectivity and seasonally increase potential pathogen transmission. Our objective was to determine if Florida panthers are more spatially connected in dry seasons relative to wet seasons, and test if identified connectivity differences resulted in divergent predicted epidemic dynamics. We leveraged extensive panther telemetry data to construct seasonal panther home range overlap networks over an 11 year period. We tested for differences in network connectivity, and used observed network characteristics to simulate transmission of a broad range of pathogens through dry and wet season networks. We found that panthers were more spatially connected in dry seasons than wet seasons. Further, these differences resulted in a trend toward larger and longer pathogen outbreaks when epidemics were initiated in the dry season. Our results demonstrate that seasonal variation in behavioral patterns-even among largely solitary species-can have substantial impacts on epidemic dynamics.

Seasonal and Regional Differences in Eating Times in a Representative Sample of the Brazilian Population

Human food intake and its timing are a complex behavior that can be influenced by a variety of factors, some of which may vary from season to season or from region to region. In this study, our aim was to investigate the seasonal variation in food intake times, with a particular focus on how these may vary across different regions of a country. We conducted an analysis of data from 20,622 adults from the National Household Budget Survey (POF-IBGE), encompassing complete food diaries collected from individuals residing in Brazil, and thereby ensuring representation across different latitudes. Each participant's daily food intake was reported for two non-consecutive days at different times in the same week using food diaries. An ANOVA revealed a later food intake time in the evening in high-latitude regions compared to low-latitude regions. The Sidak post-hoc test showed a significant interaction effect between region and season, demonstrating a pattern of early First Intake Time and Eating Midpoint in the Northeast region during spring/summer. Additionally, we observed an independent effect of the region, as early food intake times were found in low-latitude regions. These findings offer a basis for discussing food intake times among individuals living in different regions located on distinct latitudes.

On epidemic spreading in metapopulation networks with time-varying contact patterns

Considering that people may change their face-to-face communication patterns with others depending on the season, we propose an epidemic model that incorporates a time-varying contact rate on a metapopulation network and its second-neighbor network. To describe the time-varying contact mode, we utilize a switched system and define two forms of the basic reproduction number corresponding to two different restrictions. We provide the theoretical proof for the stability of the disease-free equilibrium and confirm periodic stability conditions using simulations. The simulation results reveal that as the period of the switched system lengthens, the amplitude of the final infected density increases; however, the peak infected density within a specific period remains relatively unchanged. Interestingly, as the basic reproduction number grows, the amplitude of the final infected density within a period gradually rises to its maximum and then declines. Moreover, the contact rate that occupies a longer duration within a single period has a more significant influence on epidemic spreading. As the values of different contact rates progressively increase, the recovery rate, natural birth rate, and natural death rate all decrease, leading to a larger final infection density.

Repeated exposure affects susceptibility and responses of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) towards the ectoparasitic salmon lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis)

Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) is repeatedly exposed to and infected with ectoparasitic salmon lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) both in farms and in nature. However, this is not reflected in laboratory experiments where fish typically are infected only once. To investigate if a previous lice infection affects host response to subsequent infections, fish received 4 different experimental treatments; including 2 groups of fish that had previously been infected either with adult or infective salmon lice larvae (copepodids). Thereafter, fish in all treatment groups were infected with either a double or a single dose of copepodids originating from the same cohort. Fish were sampled when lice had developed into the chalimus, the pre-adult and the adult stage, respectively. Both the specific growth rate and cortisol levels (i.e. a proxy for stress) of the fish differed between treatments. Lice success (i.e. ability to infect and survive on the host) was higher in naïve than in previously infected fish (pre-adult stage). The expression of immune and wound healing transcripts in the skin also differed between treatments, and most noticeable was a higher upregulation early in the infection in the group previously infected with copepodids. However, later in the infection, the least upregulation was observed in this group, suggesting that previous exposure to salmon lice affects the response of Atlantic salmon towards subsequent lice infections.

Short-term temperature fluctuations increase disease in a Daphnia-parasite infectious disease system

Climate change has profound effects on infectious disease dynamics, yet the impacts of increased short-term temperature fluctuations on disease spread remain poorly understood. We empirically tested the theoretical prediction that short-term thermal fluctuations suppress endemic infection prevalence at the pathogen's thermal optimum. This prediction follows from a mechanistic disease transmission model analyzed using stochastic simulations of the model parameterized with thermal performance curves (TPCs) from metabolic scaling theory and using nonlinear averaging, which predicts ecological outcomes consistent with Jensen's inequality (i.e., reduced performance around concave-down portions of a thermal response curve). Experimental observations of replicated epidemics of the microparasite Ordospora colligata in Daphnia magna populations indicate that temperature variability had the opposite effect of our theoretical predictions and instead increase endemic infection prevalence. This positive effect of temperature variability is qualitatively consistent with a published hypothesis that parasites may acclimate more rapidly to fluctuating temperatures than their hosts; however, incorporating hypothetical effects of delayed host acclimation into the mechanistic transmission model did not fully account for the observed pattern. The experimental data indicate that shifts in the distribution of infection burden underlie the positive effect of temperature fluctuations on endemic prevalence. The increase in disease risk associated with climate fluctuations may therefore result from disease processes interacting across scales, particularly within-host dynamics, that are not captured by combining standard transmission models with metabolic scaling theory.

House Sparrows Vary Seasonally in Their Ability to Transmit West Nile Virus

AbstractSeasonality in infectious disease prevalence is predominantly attributed to changes in exogenous risk factors. For vectored pathogens, high abundance, activity, and/or diversity of vectors can exacerbate disease risk for hosts. Conversely, many host defenses, particularly immune responses, are seasonally variable. Seasonality in host defenses has been attributed, in part, to the proximate (i.e., metabolic) and ultimate (i.e., reproductive fitness) costs of defense. In this study, our goal was to discern whether any seasonality is observable in how a common avian host, the house sparrow (Passer domesticus), copes with a common zoonotic arbovirus, the West Nile virus (WNV), when hosts are studied under controlled conditions. We hypothesized that if host biorhythms play a role in vector-borne disease seasonality, birds would be most vulnerable to WNV when breeding and/or molting (i.e., when other costly physiological activities are underway) and thus most transmissive of WNV at these times of year (unless birds died from infection). Overall, the results only partly supported our hypothesis. Birds were most transmissive of WNV in fall (after their molt is complete and when WNV is most prevalent in the environment), but WNV resistance, WNV tolerance, and WNV-dependent mortality did not vary among seasons. These results collectively imply that natural arboviral cycles could be partially underpinned by endogenous physiological changes in hosts. However, other disease systems warrant study, as this result could be specific to the nonnative and highly commensal nature of the house sparrow or a consequence of the relative recency of the arrival of WNV to the United States.

Fractal and fractional SIS model for syphilis data

This work studies the SIS model extended by fractional and fractal derivatives. We obtain explicit solutions for the standard and fractal formulations; for the fractional case, we study numerical solutions. As a real data example, we consider the Brazilian syphilis data from 2011 to 2021. We fit the data by considering the three variations of the model. Our fit suggests a recovery period of 11.6 days and a reproduction ratio (R0) equal to 6.5. By calculating the correlation coefficient (r) between the real data and the theoretical points, our results suggest that the fractal model presents a higher r compared to the standard or fractional case. The fractal formulation is improved when two different fractal orders with distinguishing weights are considered. This modification in the model provides a better description of the data and improves the correlation coefficient.

Mumps epidemic dynamics in the United States before vaccination (1923-1932)

Mumps is a vaccine-preventable, reemerging, and highly transmissible infectious disease. Widespread vaccination dramatically reduced cases; however, case counts have been increasing over the past 20 years. To provide a quantitative overview of historical mumps dynamics that can act as baseline information to help identify causes of mumps reemergence, we analyzed timeseries of cases reported from 1923 to 1932 in the United States. During that time, 239,230 mumps cases were reported in 70 cities. Larger cities reported annual epidemics and smaller cities reported intermittent, sporadic outbreaks. The critical community size above which transmission continuously occurred was likely between 365,583 and 781,188 individuals but could range as high as 3,376,438 individuals. Mumps cases increased as city size increased, suggesting density-dependent transmission. Using a density-dependent SEIR model, we calculated a mean effective reproductive number (Re) of 1.2. Re varied by city and over time, with periodic high values that could characterize short periods of very high transmission known as superspreading events. Case counts most often peaked in March, with higher-than-average transmission from December through April and showed a correlation with weekly births. While certain city pairs in Midwestern states had synchronous outbreaks, most outbreaks were less synchronous and not driven by distance between cities. This work demonstrates the importance of long-term infectious disease surveillance data and will inform future studies on mumps reemergence and control.

Spatiotemporal effects of meteorological conditions on global influenza peaks

BACKGROUND

Numerous studies have suggested that meteorological conditions such as temperature and absolute humidity are highly indicative of influenza outbreaks. However, the explanatory power of meteorological factors on the seasonal influenza peaks varied widely between countries at different latitudes.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to explore the modification effects of meteorological factors on the seasonal influenza peaks in multi-countries.

METHODS

Data on influenza positive rate (IPR) were collected across 57 countries and data on meteorological factors were collected from ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5). We used linear regression and generalized additive models to investigate the spatiotemporal associations between meteorological conditions and influenza peaks in cold and warm seasons.

RESULTS

Influenza peaks were significantly correlated with months with both lower and higher temperatures. In temperate countries, the average intensity of cold season peaks was stronger than that of warm season peaks. However, the average intensity of warm season peaks was stronfger than of cold season peaks in tropical countries. Temperature and specific humidity had synergistic effects on influenza peaks at different latitudes, stronger in temperate countries (cold season: R2=0.90; warm season: R2=0.84) and weaker in tropical countries (cold season: R2=0.64; warm season: R2=0.03). Furthermore, the effects could be divided into cold-dry and warm-humid modes. The temperature transition threshold between the two modes was 16.5-19.5 °C. During the transition from cold-dry mode to warm-humid mode, the average 2 m specific humidity increased by 2.15 times, illustrating that transporting a large amount of water vapor may compensate for the negative effect of rising temperatures on the spread of the influenza virus.

CONCLUSION

Differences in the global influenza peaks were related to the synergistic influence of temperature and specific humidity. The global influenza peaks could be divided into cold-dry and warm-humid modes, and specific thresholds of meteorological conditions were needed for the transition of the two modes.

Neutral Forces and Balancing Selection Interplay to Shape the Major Histocompatibility Complex Spatial Patterns in the Striped Hamster in Inner Mongolia: Suggestive of Broad-Scale Local Adaptation

BACKGROUND

The major histocompatibility complex (MHC) plays a key role in the adaptive immune response to pathogens due to its extraordinary polymorphism. However, the spatial patterns of MHC variation in the striped hamster remain unclear, particularly regarding the relative contribution of the balancing selection in shaping MHC spatial variation and diversity compared to neutral forces.

METHODS

In this study, we investigated the immunogenic variation of the striped hamster in four wild populations in Inner Mongolia which experience a heterogeneous parasitic burden. Our goal was to identify local adaptation by comparing the genetic structure at the MHC with that at seven microsatellite loci, taking into account neutral processes.

RESULTS

We observed significant variation in parasite pressure among sites, with parasite burden showing a correlation with temperature and precipitation. Molecular analysis revealed a similar co-structure between MHC and microsatellite loci. We observed lower genetic differentiation at MHC loci compared to microsatellite loci, and no correlation was found between the two.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, these results suggest a complex interplay between neutral evolutionary forces and balancing selection in shaping the spatial patterns of MHC variation. Local adaptation was not detected on a small scale but may be applicable on a larger scale.

Seasonal variations of intensity of avian malaria infection in the Thousand Island Lake System, China

BACKGROUND

Migratory birds play an important part in the spread of parasites, with more or less impact on resident birds. Previous studies focus on the prevalence of parasites, but changes in infection intensity over time have rarely been studied. As infection intensity can be quantified by qPCR, we measured infection intensity during different seasons, which is important for our understanding of parasite transmission mechanisms.

METHODS

Wild birds were captured at the Thousand Island Lake with mist nets and tested for avian hemosporidiosis infections using nested PCR. Parasites were identified using the MalAvi database. Then, we used qPCR to quantify the infection intensity. We analyzed the monthly trends of intensity for all species and for different migratory status, parasite genera and sexes.

RESULTS

Of 1101 individuals, 407 were infected (37.0%) of which 95 were newly identified and mainly from the genus Leucocytozoon. The total intensity trend shows peaks at the start of summer, during the breeding season of hosts and during the over-winter season. Different parasite genera show different monthly trends. Plasmodium causes high prevalence and infection intensity of winter visitors. Female hosts show significant seasonal trends of infection intensity.

CONCLUSIONS

The seasonal changes of infection intensity is consistent with the prevalence. Peaks occur early and during the breeding season and then there is a downward trend. Spring relapses and avian immunity are possible reasons that could explain this phenomenon. In our study, winter visitors have a higher prevalence and infection intensity, but they rarely share parasites with resident birds. This shows that they were infected with Plasmodium during their departure or migration and rarely transmit the disease to resident birds. The different infection patterns of different parasite species may be due to vectors or other ecological properties.

Possible seasonal and diurnal modulation of Gammarus pulex (Crustacea, Amphipoda) drift by microsporidian parasites

In lotic freshwater ecosystems, the drift or downstream movement of animals (e.g., macroinvertebrates) constitutes a key dispersal pathway, thus shaping ecological and evolutionary patterns. There is evidence that macroinvertebrate drift may be modulated by parasites. However, most studies on parasite modulation of host drifting behavior have focused on acanthocephalans, whereas other parasites, such as microsporidians, have been largely neglected. This study provides new insight into possible seasonal and diurnal modulation of amphipod (Crustacea: Gammaridae) drift by microsporidian parasites. Three 72 h drift experiments were deployed in a German lowland stream in October 2021, April, and July 2022. The prevalence and composition of ten microsporidian parasites in Gammarus pulex clade E varied seasonally, diurnally, and between drifting and stationary specimens of G. pulex. Prevalence was generally higher in drifting amphipods than in stationary ones, mainly due to differences in host size. However, for two parasites, the prevalence in drift samples was highest during daytime suggesting changes in host phototaxis likely related to the parasite's mode of transmission and site of infection. Alterations in drifting behavior may have important implications for G. pulex population dynamics and microsporidians' dispersal. The underlying mechanisms are more complex than previously thought.

Spatiotemporal variability in transmission risk of human schistosomes and animal trematodes in a seasonally desiccating East African landscape

Different populations of hosts and parasites experience distinct seasonality in environmental factors, depending on local-scale biotic and abiotic factors. This can lead to highly heterogenous disease outcomes across host ranges. Variable seasonality characterizes urogenital schistosomiasis, a neglected tropical disease caused by parasitic trematodes (Schistosoma haematobium). Their intermediate hosts are aquatic Bulinus snails that are highly adapted to extreme rainfall seasonality, undergoing dormancy for up to seven months yearly. While Bulinus snails have a remarkable capacity for rebounding following dormancy, parasite survival within snails is greatly diminished. We conducted a year-round investigation of seasonal snail-schistosome dynamics in 109 ponds of variable ephemerality in Tanzania. First, we found that ponds have two synchronized peaks of schistosome infection prevalence and cercariae release, though of lower magnitude in the fully desiccating ponds than non-desiccating ponds. Second, we evaluated total yearly prevalence across a gradient of an ephemerality, finding ponds with intermediate ephemerality to have the highest infection rates. We also investigated dynamics of non-schistosome trematodes, which lacked synonymity with schistosome patterns. We found peak schistosome transmission risk at intermediate pond ephemerality, thus the impacts of anticipated increases in landscape desiccation could result in increases or decreases in transmission risk with global change.

Widening the lens of population-based health research to climate change impacts and adaptation: the climate change and health evaluation and response system (CHEERS)

Background

Climate change significantly impacts health in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs), exacerbating vulnerabilities. Comprehensive data for evidence-based research and decision-making is crucial but scarce. Health and Demographic Surveillance Sites (HDSSs) in Africa and Asia provide a robust infrastructure with longitudinal population cohort data, yet they lack climate-health specific data. Acquiring this information is essential for understanding the burden of climate-sensitive diseases on populations and guiding targeted policies and interventions in LMICs to enhance mitigation and adaptation capacities.

Objective

The objective of this research is to develop and implement the Change and Health Evaluation and Response System (CHEERS) as a methodological framework, designed to facilitate the generation and ongoing monitoring of climate change and health-related data within existing Health and Demographic Surveillance Sites (HDSSs) and comparable research infrastructures.

Methods

CHEERS uses a multi-tiered approach to assess health and environmental exposures at the individual, household, and community levels, utilizing digital tools such as wearable devices, indoor temperature and humidity measurements, remotely sensed satellite data, and 3D-printed weather stations. The CHEERS framework utilizes a graph database to efficiently manage and analyze diverse data types, leveraging graph algorithms to understand the complex interplay between health and environmental exposures.

Results

The Nouna CHEERS site, established in 2022, has yielded significant preliminary findings. By using remotely-sensed data, the site has been able to predict crop yield at a household level in Nouna and explore the relationships between yield, socioeconomic factors, and health outcomes. The feasibility and acceptability of wearable technology have been confirmed in rural Burkina Faso for obtaining individual-level data, despite the presence of technical challenges. The use of wearables to study the impact of extreme weather on health has shown significant effects of heat exposure on sleep and daily activity, highlighting the urgent need for interventions to mitigate adverse health consequences.

Conclusion

Implementing the CHEERS in research infrastructures can advance climate change and health research, as large and longitudinal datasets have been scarce for LMICs. This data can inform health priorities, guide resource allocation to address climate change and health exposures, and protect vulnerable communities in LMICs from these exposures.

Neopterin Levels in Bonobos Vary Seasonally and Reflect Symptomatic Respiratory Infections

As environmental changes exacerbate the threat coming from infectious diseases in wild mammal species, monitoring their health and gaining a better understanding of the immune functioning at the species level have become critically important. Neopterin is a biomarker of cell-mediated immune responses to intracellular infections. We investigated the variation of urinary neopterin (uNeo) levels of wild, habituated bonobos (Pan paniscus) in relation to individual and environmental factors. We used 309 urine samples collected between 2010 and 2018 at the LuiKotale field site, DRC. Based on current knowledge on zoo-housed conspecifics and closely related species, we predicted uNeo levels to increase (1) during infections, (2) with increasing age, (3) over the gestation period and in estrous females; and (4) to vary seasonally. Our results showed uNeo levels varied over a one-year period and increased in individuals showing respiratory symptoms. Contrary to chimpanzees, uNeo levels did not vary with age or female reproductive status, possibly due to our small sample size. Our study provides a baseline for a better understanding of bonobo's immunocompetence in the context of socio-ecological pressures and for monitoring the health of wild populations.

Transmission dynamics of lyssavirus in Myotis myotis: mechanistic modelling study based on longitudinal seroprevalence data

We investigated the transmission dynamics of lyssavirus in Myotis myotis and Myotis blythii, using serological, virological, demographic and ecological data collected between 2015 and 2022 from two maternity colonies in northern Italian churches. Despite no lyssavirus detection in 556 bats sampled over 11 events by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), 36.3% of 837 bats sampled over 27 events showed neutralizing antibodies to European bat lyssavirus 1, with a significant increase in summers. By fitting sets of mechanistic models to seroprevalence data, we investigated factors that influenced lyssavirus transmission within and between years. Five models were selected as a group of final models: in one model, a proportion of exposed bats (median model estimate: 5.8%) became infectious and died while the other exposed bats recovered with immunity without becoming infectious; in the other four models, all exposed bats became infectious and recovered with immunity. The final models supported that the two colonies experienced seasonal outbreaks driven by: (i) immunity loss particularly during hibernation, (ii) density-dependent transmission, and (iii) a high transmission rate after synchronous birthing. These findings highlight the importance of understanding ecological factors, including colony size and synchronous birthing timing, and potential infection heterogeneities to enable more robust assessments of lyssavirus spillover risk.

Disentangling the rhythms of human activity in the built environment for airborne transmission risk: An analysis of large-scale mobility data

Background

Since the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic, substantial public attention has focused on the role of seasonality in impacting transmission. Misconceptions have relied on seasonal mediation of respiratory diseases driven solely by environmental variables. However, seasonality is expected to be driven by host social behavior, particularly in highly susceptible populations. A key gap in understanding the role of social behavior in respiratory disease seasonality is our incomplete understanding of the seasonality of indoor human activity.

Methods

We leverage a novel data stream on human mobility to characterize activity in indoor versus outdoor environments in the United States. We use an observational mobile app-based location dataset encompassing over 5 million locations nationally. We classify locations as primarily indoor (e.g. stores, offices) or outdoor (e.g. playgrounds, farmers markets), disentangling location-specific visits into indoor and outdoor, to arrive at a fine-scale measure of indoor to outdoor human activity across time and space.

Results

We find the proportion of indoor to outdoor activity during a baseline year is seasonal, peaking in winter months. The measure displays a latitudinal gradient with stronger seasonality at northern latitudes and an additional summer peak in southern latitudes. We statistically fit this baseline indoor-outdoor activity measure to inform the incorporation of this complex empirical pattern into infectious disease dynamic models. However, we find that the disruption of the COVID-19 pandemic caused these patterns to shift significantly from baseline and the empirical patterns are necessary to predict spatiotemporal heterogeneity in disease dynamics.

Conclusions

Our work empirically characterizes, for the first time, the seasonality of human social behavior at a large scale with a high spatiotemporal resolutio and provides a parsimonious parameterization of seasonal behavior that can be included in infectious disease dynamics models. We provide critical evidence and methods necessary to inform the public health of seasonal and pandemic respiratory pathogens and improve our understanding of the relationship between the physical environment and infection risk in the context of global change.

Funding

Research reported in this publication was supported by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences of the National Institutes of Health under award number R01GM123007.