Critical patch size generated by Allee effect in gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.)

Dispersal-induced resilience to stochastic environmental fluctuations in populations with Allee effect

Many species are unsustainable at small population densities (Allee effect); i.e., below the so-called Allee threshold, the population decreases instead of growing. In a closed local population, environmental fluctuations always lead to extinction. Here, we show how, in spatially extended habitats, dispersal can lead to a sustainable population in a region, provided the amplitude of environmental fluctuations is below an extinction threshold. We have identified two types of sustainable populations: high-density and low-density populations (through a mean-field approximation, valid in the limit of large dispersal length). Our results show that patches where population is high, low, or extinct coexist when the population is close to global extinction (even for homogeneous habitats). The extinction threshold is maximum for characteristic dispersal distances much larger than the spatial scale of synchrony of environmental fluctuations. The extinction threshold increases proportionally to the square root of the dispersal rate and decreases with the Allee threshold. The low-population-density solution can allow understanding of difficulties in recovery after harvesting. This theoretical framework provides a unique approach to address other factors, such as habitat fragmentation or harvesting, impacting population resilience to environmental fluctuations.

Evaluating the success of treatments that slow spread of an invasive insect pest

BACKGROUND

Treatments for the suppression and eradication of insect populations undergo substantial testing to ascertain their efficacy and safety, but the generally limited spatial and temporal scope of such studies limit knowledge of how contextual factors encountered in operational contexts shape the relative success of pest management treatments. These contextual factors potentially include ecological characteristics of the treated area, or the timing of treatments relative to pest phenology and weather events. We used an extensive database on over 1000 treatments of nascent populations of Lymantria dispar (L.) (gypsy moth) to examine how place-based and time-varying conditions shape the success of management treatments.

RESULTS

We found treatment success to vary across states and years, and to be highest in small treatment blocks that are isolated from other populations. In addition, treatment success tended to be lower in treatment blocks with open forest canopies, possibly owing to challenges of effectively distributing treatments in these areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings emphasize the importance of monitoring for early detection of nascent gypsy moth colonies in order to successfully slow the spread of the invasion. Additionally, operations research should address best practices for effectively treating with patchy and open forest canopies. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.

Comparative Meta-analysis Effects of Nonnative Ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), Ground Beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae), and Bark and Ambrosia Beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) on Native Confamilials

Nonnative species often transform local communities to the detriment of native species. Much of the existing invasion ecology research focuses on the effects of a few extremely impactful species, and it is less clear how nonnative species which are not causing economic or ecological impacts alter closely related natives at risk of being displaced. Filling these knowledge gaps is critical because consequences of nonnative species are likely to vary depending on taxonomic scale, functional trait, and spatial or temporal niche. We conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate how biodiversity of native Formicidae (ants), Carabidae (ground beetles), and Scolytinae (bark and ambrosia beetles) species changes across a gradient of pressure from nonnative confamilials. We calculated Hill numbers for each group from data presented in literature and correlated native diversity metrics to proportion of nonnative species. Species richness of native ants was significantly negatively correlated with proportions of nonnative ants, whereas bark and ambrosia beetle metrics showed a nonsignificant negative correlation. Nonnative ground beetles had neutral effects on diversity of native ground beetles. Resulting contrasting patterns of invasive species effects on natives suggest complex biotic and abiotic factors driving effects of nonnative species in these groups. Our results suggest that a few extreme examples (e.g., red imported fire ants) drive most of the changes seen in native arthropod communities. To accurately assess impacts of invaders on native arthropod diversity, baseline data are needed, and community analyses must consider diverse functional traits of native taxa and improve the depth and breadth of community sampling.

A nucleation framework for transition between alternate states: short-circuiting barriers to ecosystem recovery

The theory of alternate stable states provides an explanation for rapid ecosystem degradation, yielding important implications for ecosystem conservation and restoration. However, utilizing this theory to initiate transitions from degraded to desired ecosystem states remains a significant challenge. Applications of the alternative stable states framework may currently be impeded by a mismatch between local‐scale driving processes and landscape‐scale emergent system transitions. We show how nucleation theory provides an elegant bridge between local‐scale positive feedback mechanisms and landscape‐scale transitions between alternate stable ecosystem states. Geometrical principles can be used to derive a critical patch radius: a spatially explicit, local description of an unstable equilibrium point. This insight can be used to derive an optimal patch size that minimizes the cost of restoration, and to provide a framework to measure the resilience of desired ecosystem states to the synergistic effects of disturbance and environmental change.

Its all about connections: hubs and invasion in habitat networks

During the early stages of invasion, the interaction between the features of the invaded landscape, notably its spatial structure, and the internal dynamics of an introduced population has a crucial impact on establishment and spread. By approximating introduction areas as networks of patches linked by dispersal, we characterised their spatial structure with specific metrics and tested their impact on two essential steps of the invasion process: establishment and spread. By combining simulations with experimental introductions of Trichogramma chilonis (Hymenoptera: Trichogrammatidae) in artificial laboratory microcosms, we demonstrated that spread was hindered by clusters and accelerated by hubs but was also affected by small-population mechanisms prevalent for invasions, such as Allee effects. Establishment was also affected by demographic mechanisms, in interaction with network metrics. These results highlight the importance of considering the demography of invaders as well as the structure of the invaded area to predict the outcome of invasions.

Novel insights on population and range edge dynamics using an unparalleled spatiotemporal record of species invasion

Quantifying the complex spatial dynamics taking place at range edges is critical for understanding future distributions of species, yet very few systems have sufficient data or the spatial resolution to empirically test these dynamics. This paper reviews how data from a large-scale pest management programme have provided important contributions to the fields of population dynamics and invasion biology. The invasion of gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar) is well-documented from its introduction near Boston, Massachusetts USA in 1869 to its current extent of over 900,000 km² in Eastern North America. Over the past two decades, the USDA Forest Service Slow the Spread (STS) programme for managing the future spread of gypsy moth has produced unrivalled spatiotemporal data across the invasion front. The STS programme annually deploys a grid of 60,000-100,000 pheromone-baited traps, currently extending from Minnesota to North Carolina. The data from this programme have provided the foundation for investigations of complex population dynamics and the ability to examine ecological hypotheses previously untestable outside of theoretical venues, particularly regarding invasive spread and Allee effects. This system provides empirical data on the importance of long-distance dispersal and time-lags on population establishment and spatial spread. Studies showing high rates of spatiotemporal variation of the range edge, from rapid spread to border stasis and even retraction, highlight future opportunities to test mechanisms that influence both invasive and native species ranges. The STS trap data have also created a unique opportunity to study low-density population dynamics and quantify Allee effects with empirical data. Notable contributions include evidence for spatiotemporal variation in Allee effects, demonstrating empirical links between Allee effects and spatial spread, and testing mechanisms of population persistence and growth rates at range edges. There remain several outstanding questions in spatial ecology and population biology that can be tested within this system, such as the scaling of local ecological processes to large-scale dynamics across landscapes. The gypsy moth is an ideal model of how important ecological questions can be answered by thinking more broadly about monitoring data.

Models for Allee effect based on physical principles

We propose some models of single species with Allee effect based on physical principles. A method is used to obtain the expression for the per capita growth rate (a macroscopic information) starting from the characteristics of interactions between the individuals (a microscopic information). We assume that the agents in a model of a single species interact according to the distance between them. Moreover these agents must (i) cooperate with their nearest neighbors, (ii) compete with neighbors at an intermediate distance, and (iii) being indifferent to those who are far away. Using these assumptions and based on fundamental physical principles, we find what appears to be a new way of establishing models of single species with Allee effect.

A cryptic Allee effect: spatial contexts mask an existing fitness-density relationship

Current theories predict that Allee effects should be widespread in nature, but there is little consistency in empirical findings. We hypothesized that this gap can arise from ignoring spatial contexts (i.e. spatial scale and heterogeneity) that potentially mask an existing fitness-density relationship: a 'cryptic' Allee effect. To test this hypothesis, we analysed how spatial contexts interacted with conspecific density to influence the fertilization rate of the freshwater mussel Margaritifera laevis. This sessile organism has a simple fertilization process whereby females filter sperm from the water column; this system enabled us to readily assess the interaction between conspecific density and spatial heterogeneity (e.g. flow conditions) at multiple spatial levels. Our findings were twofold. First, positive density-dependence in fertilization was undetectable at a population scale (approx. less than 50.5 m(2)), probably reflecting the exponential decay of sperm density with distance from the sperm source. Second, the Allee effect was confirmed at a local level (0.25 m(2)), but only when certain flow conditions were met (slow current velocity and shallow water depth). These results suggest that spatial contexts can mask existing Allee effects.

Overcoming Allee effects through evolutionary, genetic, and demographic rescue

Despite the amplified threats of extinction facing small founder populations, successful colonization sometimes occurs, bringing devastating ecological and economic consequences. One explanation may be rapid evolution, which can increase mean fitness in populations declining towards extinction, permitting persistence and subsequent expansion. Such evolutionary rescue may be particularly important, given Allee effects. When a population is introduced at low density, individuals often experience a reduction in one or more components of fitness due to novel selection pressures that arise from diminished intraspecific interactions and positive density dependence (i.e. component Allee effects). A population can avoid extinction if it can adapt and recover on its own (i.e. evolutionary rescue), or if additional immigration sustains the population (i.e. demographic rescue) or boosts its genetic variation that facilitates adaptation (i.e. genetic rescue). These various forms of rescue have often been invoked as possible mechanisms for specific invasions, but their relative importance to invasion is not generally understood. Within a spatially explicit modelling framework, we consider the relative impact of each type of rescue on the probability of successful colonization, when there is evolution of a multi-locus quantitative trait that influences the strength of component Allee effects. We demonstrate that when Allee effects are important, the effect of demographic rescue via recurrent immigration overall provides the greatest opportunity for success. While highlighting the role of evolution in the invasion process, we underscore the importance of the ecological context influencing the persistence of small founder populations.

Optimal surveillance and eradication of invasive species in heterogeneous landscapes

Cost-effective surveillance strategies are needed for efficient responses to biological invasions and must account for the trade-offs between surveillance effort and management costs. Less surveillance may allow greater population growth and spread prior to detection, thereby increasing the costs of damages and control. In addition, surveillance strategies are usually applied in environments under continual invasion pressure where the number, size and location of established populations are unknown prior to detection. We develop a novel modeling framework that accounts for these features of the decision and invasion environment and determines the long term sampling effort that minimises the total expected costs of new invasions. The optimal solution depends on population establishment and growth rates, sample sensitivity, and sample, eradication, and damage costs. We demonstrate how to optimise surveillance systems under budgetary constraints and find that accounting for spatial heterogeneity in sampling costs and establishment rates can greatly reduce management costs.

Invasions in heterogeneous habitats in the presence of advection

We investigate invasions from a biological reservoir to an initially empty, heterogeneous habitat in the presence of advection. The habitat consists of a periodic alternation of favorable and unfavorable patches. In the latter the population dies at fixed rate. In the former it grows either with the logistic or with an Allee effect type dynamics, where the population has to overcome a threshold to grow. We study the conditions for successful invasions and the speed of the invasion process, which is numerically and analytically investigated in several limits. Generically advection enhances the downstream invasion speed but decreases the population size of the invading species, and can even inhibit the invasion process. Remarkably, however, the rate of population increase, which quantifies the invasion efficiency, is maximized by an optimal advection velocity. In models with Allee effect, differently from the logistic case, above a critical unfavorable patch size the population localizes in a favorable patch, being unable to invade the habitat. However, we show that advection, when intense enough, may activate the invasion process.

Combining tactics to exploit Allee effects for eradication of alien insect populations

Invasive species increasingly threaten ecosystems, food production, and human welfare worldwide. Hundreds of eradication programs have targeted a wide range of nonnative insect species to mitigate the economic and ecological impacts of biological invasions. Many such programs used multiple tactics to achieve this goal, but interactions between tactics have received little formal consideration, specifically as they interact with Allee dynamics. If a population can be driven below an Allee threshold, extinction becomes more probable because of factors such as the failure to find mates, satiate natural enemies, or successfully exploit food resources, as well as demographic and environmental stochasticity. A key implication of an Allee threshold is that the population can be eradicated without the need and expense of killing the last individuals. Some combinations of control tactics could interact with Allee dynamics to increase the probability of successful eradication. Combinations of tactics can be considered to have synergistic (greater efficiency in achieving extinction from the combination), additive (no improvement over single tactics alone), or antagonistic (reduced efficiency from the combination) effects on Allee dynamics. We highlight examples of combinations of tactics likely to act synergistically, additively, or antagonistically on pest populations. By exploiting the interacting effects of multiple tactics on Allee dynamics, the success and cost-effectiveness of eradication programs can be enhanced.

Levels of clonal mixing in the black bean aphid Aphis fabae, a facultative ant mutualist

Aphids are a worldwide pest and an important model in ecology and evolution. Little is known, however, about the genetic structure of their colonies at a microgeographic level. For example, it remains largely unknown whether most species form monoclonal or polyclonal colonies. Here, we present the first detailed study on levels of clonal mixing in a nonsocial facultative ant mutualist, the black bean aphid Aphis fabae. In contrast to the earlier suggestion that colonies of this species are generally monoclonal, we found that across two subspecies of the black bean aphid, A. fabae cirsiiacanthoidis and A. fabae fabae, 32% and 67% of the aphid colonies were in fact polyclonal, consisting of a mix of up to four different clones, which resulted in an overall average relatedness within colonies of 0.90 and 0.79 in the two subspecies. Data further show that the average relatedness in A. f. cirsiiacanthoidis remained relatively constant throughout the season, which means that clonal erosion due to clonal selection more or less balanced with the influx of new clones from elsewhere. Nevertheless, relatedness tended to decrease over the lifetime of a given colony, implying that clonal mixing primarily resulted from the joining of pre-existing colonies as opposed to via simultaneous host colonisation by several foundresses. Widespread clonal mixing is argued to affect the ecology and evolution of the aphids in various important ways, for example with respect to the costs and benefits of group living, the evolution of dispersal and the interaction with predators as well as with the ant mutualists.

Exploiting Allee effects for managing biological invasions

Biological invasions are a global and increasing threat to the function and diversity of ecosystems. Allee effects (positive density dependence) have been shown to play an important role in the establishment and spread of non-native species. Although Allee effects can be considered a bane in conservation efforts, they can be a benefit in attempts to manage non-native species. Many biological invaders are subject to some form of an Allee effect, whether due to a need to locate mates, cooperatively feed or reproduce or avoid becoming a meal, yet attempts to highlight the specific exploitation of Allee effects in biological invasions are surprisingly unprecedented. In this review, we highlight current strategies that effectively exploit an Allee effect, and propose novel means by which Allee effects can be manipulated to the detriment of biological invaders. We also illustrate how the concept of Allee effects can be integral in risk assessments and in the prioritization of resources allocated to manage non-native species, as some species beset by strong Allee effects could be less successful as invaders. We describe how tactics that strengthen an existing Allee effect or create new ones could be used to manage biological invasions more effectively.