Infant mortality and the health of survivors: Britain, 1910–50

Early-Life Disease Exposure and Its Heterogeneous Effects on Mortality Throughout Life: Sweden, 1905-2016

Exposure to infectious diseases in early life has been linked to increased mortality risk in later life in high-disease settings, such as eighteenth- and nineteenth-century Europe. Less is known about the long-term effects of early-life disease exposure in milder disease environments. This study estimates heterogeneous effects from disease exposure in infancy on later-life mortality in twentieth-century Sweden, by socioeconomic status at birth and sex. Using historical population data for southern Sweden, we study 11,515 individuals who were born in 1905-1929 from age 1 until age 85. We measure exposure to disease using the local post-early neonatal mortality rate in the first 12 months after birth and apply flexible parametric survival models. For females, we find a negative effect on life expectancy (scarring) at ages 1-85 following high disease exposure in infancy, particularly for those born to unskilled workers. For males, we find no negative effect on later-life survival, likely because stronger mortality selection in infancy outweighs scarring. Thus, even as the incidence of infectious diseases declined at the start of the twentieth century, early-life disease exposure generated long-lasting negative but heterogeneous population health effects.

Mortality of patients with COPD

INTRODUCTION

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the third most common cause of death worldwide and 24% of the patients die within 5 years of diagnosis.

AREAS COVERED

The epidemiology of mortality and the interventions that reduce it are reviewed. The increasing global deaths reflect increases in population sizes, increasing life expectancy and reductions in other causes of death. Strategies to reduce mortality aim to prevent the development of COPD and improve the survival of individuals. Historic changes in mortality give insights: improvements in living conditions and nutrition, and later improvements in air quality led to a large fall in mortality in the early 20th century. The smoking epidemic temporarily reversed this trend.Older age, worse lung function and exacerbations are risk factors for death. Single inhaler triple therapy; smoking cessation; pulmonary rehabilitation; oxygen therapy; noninvasive ventilation; and surgery reduce mortality in selected patients.

EXPERT OPINION

The importance of addressing the global burden of mortality from COPD must be recognized. Steps must be taken to reduce it, by reducing exposure to risk factors, assessing individual patients' risk of death and using treatments that reduce the risk of death. Mortality rates are falling in countries that have adopted a comprehensive approach to COPD prevention and treatment.

Disease exposure in infancy affects women's reproductive outcomes and offspring health in southern Sweden 1905-2000

Ample evidence demonstrates that early-life adversity negatively affects morbidity and survival in late life. We show that disease exposure in infancy also has a continuous impact on reproduction and health across the female life course and even affects early-life health of the next generation. Using Swedish administrative data, obstetric records, and local infant mortality rates as a measure of disease exposure, we follow women's reproductive careers and offspring health 1905-2000, examining a comprehensive set of outcomes. Women exposed to disease in infancy give birth to a lower proportion of boys, consistent with notions that male fetuses are more vulnerable to adverse conditions and are more often miscarried. Sons of exposed mothers are also more likely to be born preterm and have higher birthweight suggesting in utero out-selection. Exposed women have a greater risk of miscarriage and of male stillbirth, but their overall likelihood of giving birth is not affected.

Casting shadows: later-life outcomes of stature

The central question in this special issue is a relatively new one in anthropometric history: how did body height affect the life course? This raises the issue of whether such an effect merely captures the underlying early-life conditions that impact growth, or whether some independent effect of stature can be discerned. Further, the effects of height on later-life outcomes need not be linear. These effects may also differ by gender, by context (time and place), and among life course domains such as occupational success, family formation or health in later life. The ten research articles in this issue use a plethora of historical sources on individuals, such as prison and hospital records, conscript records, genealogies and health surveys. These articles employ a variety of methods to distinguish between early-life and later-life effects, between intra- and intergenerational processes and between biological and socio-economic factors. Importantly, all articles discuss the impact of the specific context on their results to understand these effects. The overall conclusion is that independent later-life outcomes of height are rather ambiguous, and seem to stem more from the perception of physical strength, health and intelligence associated with height than from height itself. This special issue also reflects on intergenerational effects of the later-life outcomes of height. As populations have grown taller, it is possible that height and later-life outcomes have formed a 'virtuous cycle', resulting in taller, healthier and wealthier populations. So far, however, our research offers little support for this hypothesis.

Infant feeding and post-weaning health: Evidence from turn-of-the-century London

Evidence on the post-weaning benefits of early-life breastfeeding is mixed, and highly context-dependent. Moreover, this evidence is drawn almost exclusively from modern settings, limiting our understanding of the relationship between breastfeeding and subsequent health in the past. We provide novel evidence on the nature and reach of these post-weaning benefits in a historical setting, drawing on a rich new longitudinal dataset covering nearly 1000 children from the Foundling Hospital, an orphanage in turn-of-the-century London. We find that even after the cessation of breastfeeding, ever-breastfed status reduced mortality risk and raised weight-for-age in infancy, that exclusive breastfeeding conferred additional benefits, and that breastfeeding duration had little impact. We also find a U-shaped pattern in weight-for-age by time since weaning, indicating a deterioration in health shortly after weaning, followed by a recovery. The early post-weaning advantages associated with breastfeeding, however, did not persist into mid-childhood. This indicates that any protective effects of earlier breastfeeding attenuated with age, and suggests a strong role for catch-up growth. This study contributes to the data and empirical settings available to explore the relationship between infant feeding and post-weaning health, and helps shed light on the contribution of changing breastfeeding norms to trends in health in twentieth-century Britain.

The association between male height and lifespan in rural Spain, birth cohorts 1835-1939

This article analyses the relationship between male height and age at death and its evolution over time among conscripts born in fourteen villages in north-east rural Spain. A total of 1,488 conscripts born between 1835 and 1939 (and who died between 1868 and 2019) have been included in the analysis (based on the study of 3 sub-periods: 1835-1869, 1870-1899, and 1900-1939). The height data have been obtained from military service conscription records and the demographic and socioeconomic information of the deceased was obtained from parish archives and censuses. The data have been linked according to nominative criteria using family reconstitution methods. For the statistical analysis, we have used ordinary least squares (OLS) linear regressions with heteroskedasticity-robust estimation. The results suggest a positive relationship between height and lifespan in the long-term. For the birth cohorts of 1835-1869, conscripts with a height of 170 cm or more lived on average 7.6 years longer than conscripts measuring less than 160 cm. This difference in life expectancy tended to disappear for the birth cohorts of 1900-1939, benefiting especially the short conscripts who had greater possibilities to increase their average lifespan. The reasons that might explain these changes could reside in the improvements experienced by this group in terms of their living conditions, health and nutrition during the twentieth century.

Did parental care in early life affect height? Evidence from rural Spain (19th-20th centuries)

This article examines the relationship between childhood mortality experienced within families and the height of surviving male children. Sibling mortality, controlled by different socioeconomic and environmental variables, is used as an approximation of the hygienic and epidemiological context and practices within the family. The analysis is based on a sample of 2783 individuals born between 1835 and 1977 in 14 villages in north-eastern Spain. The mortality data were obtained from the parish archives of the reference villages, and the height data from military service records of conscriptions at 21 years of age. The data were linked according to nominative criteria using family reconstitution methods. The results suggest the existence of a strong negative relationship between height and the childhood mortality experienced within families. Children born in families in which 50% of the children died before the age of five were up to 2.3 cm shorter than those of families with childhood mortality of less than 25%. General socioeconomic, hygienic and health improvements reduced childhood mortality, causing this link to gradually disappear between the 1940s and 1970s.

Effects of passive smoking on prenatal and infant development: Lessons from the past

This paper studies the effect of passive smoking on child development. We use data from a time when the adverse effects of smoking on health were not known and when tobacco was not an inferior good. This allows us to disentangle the effect on foetuses and infants of smoking from that of other indicators of social and economic conditions. We exploit a set of unique longitudinal historical datasets defined at a detailed level of geographical disaggregation, namely the 69 Italian provinces. The datasets record precise information on the per capita consumption of tobacco products, the heights of twenty-year old conscripts in the second half of the 19th century Italy, and other relevant controls. We find a strong negative effect of smoking in the period immediately before and after birth on the height at age 20. Results are robust to changes in specification and consistent across the height distribution.

The Long Harm of Childhood: Childhood Exposure to Mortality and Subsequent Risk of Adult Mortality in Utah and The Netherlands

How do early-life conditions affect adult mortality? Research has yielded mixed evidence about the influence of infant and child mortality in birth cohorts on adult health and mortality. Studies rarely consider the specific role of mortality within the family. We estimated how individuals' exposure to mortality as a child is related to their adult mortality risk between ages 18 and 85 in two historical populations, Utah (USA) 1874-2015 and Zeeland (The Netherlands) 1812-1957. We examined these associations for early community-level exposure to infant and early (before sixth birthday) and late (before eighteenth birthday) childhood mortality as well as exposure during these ages to sibling deaths. We find that that exposure in childhood to community mortality and sibling deaths increases adult mortality rates. Effects of sibling mortality on adult all-cause mortality risk were stronger in Utah, where sibling deaths were less common in relation to Zeeland. Exposure to sibling death due to infection was related to the surviving siblings' risk of adult mortality due to cardiovascular disease (relative risk: 1.06) and metabolic disease (relative risk: 1.42), primarily diabetes mellitus, a result consistent with an inflammatory immune response mechanism. We conclude that early-life conditions and exposure to mortality in early life, especially within families of origin, contribute to adult mortality.

XX > XY?: The changing female advantage in life expectancy

Females live a lot longer than males in most parts of the world today. But that was not always the case. We ask when and why the female advantage emerged. We show that reductions in maternal mortality and fertility are only partial reasons. Rather, the sharp reduction in infectious disease in the early twentieth century played a role. Those who survive most infectious diseases carry a health burden that affects organs and impacts general well-being. We use newly collected data from Massachusetts containing information on cause of death since 1887 to show that females between the ages of 5 and 25 were disproportionately affected by infectious diseases. Both males and females lived longer as the burden of infectious disease fell, but women were more greatly impacted. Our explanation does not tell us precisely why women live longer than men, but it does help understand the timing of their relative increase.

Early-life exposure to weather shocks and child height: Evidence from industrializing Japan

In this study, we estimate the long-run effects of early-life exposure to weather shocks on the height of primary school children. To estimate the global impacts on almost the entire child population in an industrializing country, we utilize both a unique nationwide multi-dimensional longitudinal dataset of Japanese children aged 6-11 and official monthly statistics on meteorological conditions in the 1920s. We observe that the exposure to cold waves in early-life exerted stunting effects on both the boys and girls. In the coldest regions in the northeastern area of Japan, the stunting effects of cold weather shocks on the boys and girls are estimated to be approximately 0.8 and 0.6 cm, respectively. Our observation indicates that prenatal (postnatal) exposure is important for the boys (girls). Our results suggest that the marginal effects of cold waves are stronger in the warmer regions than in the colder regions.

Public health and multiple-phase mortality decline: Evidence from industrializing Japan

A growing body of literature shows the mitigating effects of water-supply systems on the mortality rates in large cities, yet the heterogeneities in the effects have been understudied. This study fills in the gap in existing knowledge by providing evidence for non-linearity in the effects of clean water using semiparametric fixed effects approach with city-level nationwide longitudinal dataset between 1922 and 1940, which covers 91% of total city population. According to our baseline estimate, the clean water accounts for approximately 27% of the decrease in the crude death rate in this period. Our results also indicate the heterogeneities in the improving effects of clean water with respect to the coverage of tap water among citizens. We found evidence that the installation of the water-supply system itself decreased waterborne infections and infant mortality but did not substantially improve the overall mortality rate in the initial phase. However, the subsequent expansion of tap water could result in a continuous decline in the overall risk of deaths in the second phase.

The biological standard of living in Suriname, c. 1870-1975

The physical stature of Surinamese soldiers is estimated to have increased by more than 3cm between 1870 and 1909. In the subsequent four decades, the increase in adult male and female height amounted to 0.3-0.5cm and 0.9-1.0cm per decade, respectively. This increase in height continued and accelerated during the second half of the twentieth century. Height increase among African and Hindustani Surinamese males and females was similar. Height differences between African and Hindustani Surinamese were therefore fairly constant over time, at 4-5cm. Other indicators of nutritional and health status, such as infant mortality, showed continuous improvement, whereas per capita calorie and protein availability improved in the twentieth century.

Inferring the economic standard of living and health from cohort height: Evidence from modern populations in developing countries

Average adult height is a physical measure of the biological standard of living of a population. While the biological and economic standards of living of a population are very different concepts, they are linked and may empirically move together. If this is so, then cohort heights can also be used to make inferences about the economic standard of living and health of a population when other data are not available. We investigate how informative this approach is in terms of inferring income, nutrition, and mortality using data on heights from developing countries over the last 50 years for female cohorts born 1951-1992. We find no evidence that the absolute differences in adult height across countries are associated with different economic living standards. Within countries, however, faster increases in adult cohort height over time are associated with more rapid growth of GDP per capita, life expectancy, and nutritional intake. Using our instrumental variable approach, each centimeter gain in height is associated with a 6% increase in income per capita, a reduction in infant mortality of 7 per thousand (or an 1.25 year increase in life expectancy), and an increase in nutrition of 64 calories and 2 grams of protein per person per day relative to the global trend. We find that increases in cohort height can predict increases in income even for countries not used in the estimation of the relationship. This suggests our approach has predictive power out of sample for countries where we lack income and health data.

Early life mortality and height in Indian states

Height is a marker for health, cognitive ability and economic productivity. Recent research on the determinants of height suggests that postneonatal mortality predicts height because it is a measure of the early life disease environment to which a cohort is exposed. This article advances the literature on the determinants of height by examining the role of early life mortality, including neonatal mortality, in India, a large developing country with a very short population. It uses state level variation in neonatal mortality, postneonatal mortality, and pre-adult mortality to predict the heights of adults born between 1970 and 1983, and neonatal and postneonatal mortality to predict the heights of children born between 1995 and 2005. In contrast to what is found in the literature on developed countries, I find that state level variation in neonatal mortality is a strong predictor of adult and child heights. This may be due to state level variation in, and overall poor levels of, pre-natal nutrition in India.

Long-term changes of socioeconomic differences in height among young adult men in Southern Sweden, 1818-1968

The study explores the long-term trends in socioeconomic differences in height among young adult men. We linked information from conscript inspections to a longitudinal demographic database of five parishes in Southern Sweden. Detailed information on the occupation and landholding was used to investigate the differences in height. Even if there is indication of a reduction in the magnitude of the differences in height over time the reduction is neither dramatic nor uniform. The most systematic and consistent difference is that sons of fathers with white collar occupations were taller than others. They were 4cm taller than the sons of low-skilled manual workers in the first half of the 19th century, and almost 2cm taller in the mid-20th century. This difference is much smaller than those found between elite and destitute groups historically, in for example Britain, but comparable to that found in other studies on 19th century populations using information on family background. Most of the reduction in the socioeconomic differences in height was a result of reduced height penalty and premium for small disadvantaged and privileged groups. Changes in the distribution of income and the economic structure are plausible explanations for the changes in socioeconomic differences in height.

Socioeconomic differences in child mortality in central Poland at the end of the nineteenth century

Analyses of historical or modern populations indicate a strong relationship between mortality level and standard of living, measured, among other factors, by degree of urbanization. The aim of this study was to assess mortality rates in children of up to 5 years of age in two populations living under different conditions in central modern Poland at the end of the 19th century: the rural parish of Kowal, under Russian partition, and Toruń, an industrial and urbanized centre under Prussian partition. Data on births and deaths were taken from birth certificate registries and from the Prussian statistics yearbooks for 1876-1894. Death rates of children aged 0-5 years were calculated, and also for annual age ranges. The urban population had lower birth rates (37.19‰), natural increase rates (8.0‰), population dynamics rates (1.26‰), which provide information about the relation between two components of a natural increase, i.e. births and deaths, and an over-mortality of boys in relation to girls. In the rural population these values were all higher: 53.67‰, 18.11‰ and 1.59‰ respectively. No impact was found of social stratification on child mortality in the wide age group of 0-5 years. However, for subsequent one-year age groups significant relationships between mortality level and size and industrialization level of the population centres were noted. The living conditions of infants in Toruń, although being in a better position as an area annexed by Prussia, were markedly worse than those of rural Kowal Parish. In the urban centre infant mortality was slightly over 269 for 1000 live born, and in Kowal Parish it was 163 for 1000 live born. The high infant mortality was balanced in Toruń by the higher mortality levels of children aged 2-5 years compared with Kowal Parish. Natural selection in the city had the greatest impact on infants, who did not have the protective influence of breast-feeding because women had to return to work shortly after giving birth. The lower infant mortality of mothers in the countryside due to longer breast-feeding led to larger family sizes. In 1871-1890 in the villages the number of children per women was about 7.42, whereas in Toruń it ranged from 4.4 to 5.2. The probability of death among children who survived the first year of life was higher in the countryside than the town. In the rural parish, perhaps because of cultural factors such as breast-feeding or working practices making full-time baby-sitting possible, children who did not reach the age of 1 year were not subjected to such intensive natural selection. Overall, differences in child mortality in the two centres in 19th central Poland resulted from ecological and cultural conditions, rather than from social and economical reasons (living under different partitions).

Early-life environment, height and BMI of young men in Italy

This paper explores the relationship between the two main dimensions of early-life environment, namely disease burden (measured by infant mortality) and economic conditions (measured by income or consumption per capita), and height and body-mass index (BMI) for six annual cohorts of young Italian men born between 1973 and 1978. By combining micro-level data on height and weight with regional- and province-level information, we are able to link individual height and BMI at age 18 to regional and provincial averages of environmental variables in the year of birth. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that, in rich low-mortality settings, the negative effects of childhood disease dominate the positive selection effects of mortality. We find that both income and disease matter, although income matters more than disease for height, while the opposite is true for BMI.