Is there a future for Amur tigers in a restored tiger conservation landscape in Northeast China?

Transboundary Cooperation in the Tumen River Basin Is the Key to Amur Leopard (Panthera pardus) Population Recovery in the Korean Peninsula

The interconnected forest regions along the lower Tumen River, at the Sino-North Korean border, provide critical habitats and corridors for the critically endangered Amur Leopard (Panthera pardus orientalis). In this region, there are two promising corridors for leopard movement between China and North Korea: the Jingxin-Dapanling (JD) and Mijiang (MJ) corridors. Past studies have confirmed the functionality of the JD corridor, but leopards' utilization of the MJ corridor has not yet been established or confirmed. In this study, we assessed the functionality of the MJ corridor. The study area was monitored using camera traps between May 2019 and July 2021. We also analyzed 33 environmental and vegetation factors affecting leopard survival and analyzed leopard movement. In the Mijiang area, the Amur leopard was mainly active in the region adjacent to the Northeast China Tiger and Leopard National Park and did not venture into area near the North Korean border. The complex forest structure allowed leopards to move into the Mijiang area. However, the high intensity of human disturbance and manufactured physical barriers restricted further southward movement. Therefore, human-induced disturbances such as grazing, mining, farming, logging, and infrastructure development must be halted and reversed to make the Mijiang region a functional corridor for the Amur leopard to reach the North Korean forest. This necessitates inter-governmental and international cooperation and is essential for the long-term survival of the Amur leopard.

Addressing the impact of canine distemper spreading on an isolated tiger population in northeast Asia

The continuation of the isolated Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) population living along the China-Russia border is facing serious challenges due to factors such as its small size (including 38 individuals) and canine distemper virus (CDV). We use a population viability analysis metamodel, which consists of a traditional individual-based demographic model linked to an epidemiological model, to assess options for controlling the impact of negative factors through domestic dog management in protected areas, increasing connectivity to the neighboring large population (including more than 400 individuals), and habitat expansion. Without intervention, under inbreeding depression of 3.14, 6.29, and 12.26 lethal equivalents, our metamodel predicted the extinction within 100 years is 64.4%, 90.6%, and 99.8%, respectively. In addition, the simulation results showed that dog management or habitat expansion independently will not ensure tiger population viability for the next 100 years, and connectivity to the neighboring population would only keep the population size from rapidly declining. However, when the above three conservation scenarios are combined, even at the highest level of 12.26 lethal equivalents inbreeding depression, population size will not decline and the probability of extinction will be <5.8%. Our findings highlight that protecting the Amur tiger necessitates a multifaceted synergistic effort. Our key management recommendations for this population underline the importance of reducing CDV threats and expanding tiger occupancy to its former range in China, but re-establishing habitat connectivity to the neighboring population is an important long-term objective.

Is the Lesser Khingan Suitable for the Amur Tiger Restoration? Perspectives with the Current State of the Habitat and Prey Base

The Amur tiger (Panthera tigris) has a status of being endangered on the world's IUCN red list. The northwestern part of its range is situated in Russia and China, where tigers were exterminated by humans in the 1950-1970s. To restore tiger population within a historical range, an estimation of the habitat suitability is firstly needed. The Lesser Khingan mountains (Heilongjiang) was analyzed. Habitat types were mapped by satellite images analysis and field proven. The potential habitats of the main tiger's prey species (wild boar (Sus scrofa), roe deer (Capreolus pygargus), and red deer (Cervus elaphus xanthopygus) were also assessed. Maximum entropy and linear discriminant analysis methods were applied and compared for species distribution modeling (SDM). Species distribution maps were used to design an ecological network. The fragmentation of habitat patches was evaluated by spatial ecological metrics. The habitat patches with the best metrics were assigned as cores for the ecological network, which were connected by calculated corridors. The least cost distance method (based on distance to roads and settlements) was used. The recovery of the Amur tiger in habitats of China's Lesser Khingan is shown to be possible. Types of habitats were calculated as natural corridors for moving tigers. They are mainly located at the forests' edges and characterized with various canopy structures and high variability in the tree species composition. Three potential transboundary corridors are described: (a) foothills and low mountains of the northern Lesser Khingan; (b) connection between the southeast Lesser Khingan and the western part of the Wandashan mountain system; and (c) corridor within foothills and low mountains of the eastern part of Lesser Khingan. It is recommended to establish protected areas for the important tiger core habitats, and the main optimal ways for their migrations are described during the current investigation. Moreover, it is necessary to implement habitat recovery activities for key areas.

Prediction of range expansion and estimation of dispersal routes of water deer (Hydropotes inermis) in the transboundary region between China, the Russian Far East and the Korean Peninsula

Global changes may direct species expansion away from their current range. When such an expansion occurs, and the species colonizes a new region, it is important to monitor the habitat used by the species and utilize the information to updated management strategies. Water deer (Hydropotes inermis) is listed as Vulnerable species in IUCN Red List and is restricted to east central China and the Korean Peninsula. Since 2017, water deer has expanded its range towards northeast China and the Russian Far East. The objective of our study is to provide support for a better understanding of habitat use and provide suggestions for developing conservation strategy. We collected occurrence data in northeast China and the Russian Far East during 2017–2021. We used MaxEnt to predict habitat suitability for water deer and applied Circuitscape to determine possible dispersal routes for the species. We used seven environmental variables, viz., altitude, slope, aspect, distance to built-up area, distance to water source, distance to cropland and distance to roads for habitat suitability prediction. We chose the MaxEnt model (AICc = 2572.86) suitable for our data with the AUC value result of 0.935±0.014. There is good quality habitat for water deer in the boundary area of the Yalu and Tumen River estuaries between China, North Korea, and the Russian Far East, as well as the east and west regions of the Korean Peninsula. We identified three main suitable habitat patches, two of them located in east (NK2) and west (NK3) North Korea, and one in the newly colonized area downstream of the Tumen River along the border of China, Russia, and North Korea (TM1). Elevation, distance to cropland and water sources, and presence of wetlands were the variables that positively contributed to modelling the suitable habitats. Two possible dispersal routes were determined using the circuit theory, one was across the area from North Korea to the downstream Tumen transboundary region (Route B), and the other was across North Korea to the boundary region in China and along the tiger national park in northern China (Route A). A series of protected areas in North Korea, China, and Russia may support the dispersal of water deer. From the study on water deer dispersal, we can understand the existing ecological network in northeast Asia, which will benefit the whole landscape and biodiversity conservation. However, there are many threats present, and there is need for continued monitoring inside and outside the protected areas. Information sharing with stakeholders and carrying out local communities awareness activities are important. The establishment of a Northeast Asia landscape conservation network would help establish monitoring and conservation planning at a broad scale, and this study provides an example of the need for such a network.

Habitat suitability for a community of Amur tigers (Panthera tigris altaica) and their prey in Changbaishan

The Changbaishan reserve and the forests around it are one of the priority areas for Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) recovery in northeastern China. Previous habitat suitability analyses only took the ecological requirements of tigers into consideration, so this study aims to determine habitat suitability for a tiger-prey community in the region, by analysing ungulate prey availability and habitat suitability for both predator and prey. Three prey species were found, using the snow tacking method: red deer (Cervus canadensis xanthopygus), wild boar (Sus scrofa), and roe deer (Capreolus pygargus). Habitat suitability was evaluated for tigers, red deer, and wild boar, using a multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) process. MCE results showed that (1) habitat suitability is generally low outside the reserve for all three species; (2) suitability values were the lowest for tigers due to high intensity of human impact in the area, with suitable habitat restricted to the centre of the reserve; and (3) red deer and wild boar would find pockets of suitable habitat outside the reserve. A combination of low forest quality and high human impact intensity imposes significant environmental pressure to those ungulates. To recover tiger population in Changbaishan, forest quality and human impacts should be properly managed, which should increase prey availability.

Cattle Grazing Effects on Vegetation and Wild Ungulates in the Forest Ecosystem of a National Park in Northeastern China

There is evidence that cattle grazing in forests limits big cat abundance. There is concern, too, about competition with wild ungulate prey through bottom-up effects on vegetation. Hence, there have been calls to remove or control forest livestock grazing in aid of restoring endangered large carnivores and their prey. To help inform scientific debate and decision making, we explored cattle-vegetation-prey dynamics in Northeast Tiger and Leopard National Park, northeast China and present a reappraisal of livestock grazing in the context of coexistence and an integrated approach to land use in China. Inside long-term forest grazing enclosures, wild boar (Sus scrofa) density increased with cattle density. Roe deer (Capreolus pygargus) density and occurrence probability of wild boar and roe deer were not influenced by cattle density. Wild ungulate densities were not related with the number of annual shoots, i.e., forage plant abundance. The presence/absence and abundance of annual shoots was not related with cattle density. Wild ungulate density had mixed associations with vegetation structure; arbor tree diameter at breast height (DBH) and habitat “openness” increased with cattle density. Finally, inside and outside enclosures had different vegetation characteristics and wild boar densities, while roe deer densities were equal. We conclude that cattle density and associated changes to vegetation have positive, negative, and neutral effects on two wild ungulate prey species. Each of these factors warrant consideration in evidence-based management decisions in regard to regulating ungulate community composition to support different large predators as preferred prey in core areas and corridors of habitats.

Multi-Scale Spatial Prediction of Wild Boar Damage Risk in Hunchun: A Key Tiger Range in China

Simple Summary

Spatial distribution of wild boar damage risk is important and can be informative to wildlife habitat management. Hunchun is an important active area of Siberian tiger in China. The wild boar damage has brought barriers to the conservation and management of the Siberian tiger in this region. We predicted the spatial distribution of wild boar damage risk in Hunchun in terms of home range and feeding sites scales, and explored the spatial interaction between tiger habitats and the damage risk of wild boar. The results show the distance to the forest edge is an important factor affecting the wild boar damage, and 38.68% of the high-risk areas are overlapped with tiger habitats in Hunchun. Therefore, precise and differentiated management strategies should be adopted in the management of wild boar population.

Abstract

Hunchun, a typical area suffering wild boar (Sus scrofa) damage, is an important region for the Siberian Tiger (Panthera tigris) in China. By incorporating the maximum entropy model with 22 variables in the home range scale (12 variables) and in the feeding site scale (10 variables), we predicted wild boar damage risks in this area of China and analyzed how spatial factors influence damage risk. Damage risk was found to be high in areas close to the forest edge, areas with a higher forest cover and lower to medium deciduous forest proportion, low road density, and a medium river density and farmland proportion. The proportion of farmland which was identified as being in the high damage risk zone was 23.55%, of which 38.68% was within the habitat area of the Siberian Tiger. Finally, we propose wild boar damage prevention based on different management goals.

Relationships between humans and ungulate prey shape Amur tiger occurrence in a core protected area along the Sino-Russian border

Large carnivore populations are globally threatened by human impacts. Better protection could benefit carnivores, co-occurring species, and the ecosystems they inhabit. The relationship between carnivores and humans, however, is not always consistent in areas of high human activities and is often mediated through the effects of humans on their ungulate prey. To test assumptions regarding how prey abundance and humans affect carnivore occurrence, density, and daily activity patterns, we assessed tiger-prey-human spatiotemporal patterns based on camera-trapping data in Hunchun Nature Reserve, a promising core area for tiger restoration in China. Our study area contained seasonally varying levels of human disturbance in summer and winter. We used N-mixture models to predict the relative abundance of ungulate prey considering human and environmental covariates. We estimated tiger spatial distribution using occupancy models and models of prey relative abundance from N-mixture models. Finally, we estimated temporal activity patterns of tigers and prey using kernel density estimates to test for temporal avoidance between tigers, prey, and humans. Our results show that human-related activities depressed the relative abundance of prey at different scales and in different ways, but across species, the relative abundance of prey directly increased tiger occupancy. Tiger occupancy was strongly positively associated with the relative abundance of sika deer in summer and winter. The crepuscular and nocturnal tigers also apparently synchronized their activity with that of wild boar and roe deer. However, tigers temporally avoided human activity without direct spatial avoidance. Our study supports the effects of humans on tigers through human impacts on prey populations. Conservation efforts may not only target human disturbance on predators, but also on prey to alleviate human-carnivore conflict.

Assessment of fine-scale resource selection and spatially explicit habitat suitability modelling for a re-introduced tiger (Panthera tigris) population in central India

BACKGROUND

Large carnivores influence ecosystem functions at various scales. Thus, their local extinction is not only a species-specific conservation concern, but also reflects on the overall habitat quality and ecosystem value. Species-habitat relationships at fine scale reflect the individuals' ability to procure resources and negotiate intraspecific competition. Such fine scale habitat choices are more pronounced in large carnivores such as tiger (Panthera tigris), which exhibits competitive exclusion in habitat and mate selection strategies. Although landscape level policies and conservation strategies are increasingly promoted for tiger conservation, specific management interventions require knowledge of the habitat correlates at fine scale.

METHODS

We studied nine radio-collared individuals of a successfully reintroduced tiger population in Panna Tiger Reserve, central India, focussing on the species-habitat relationship at fine scales. With 16 eco-geographical variables, we performed Manly's selection ratio and K-select analyses to define population-level and individual-level variation in resource selection, respectively. We analysed the data obtained during the exploratory period of six tigers and during the settled period of eight tigers separately, and compared the consequent results. We further used the settled period characteristics to model and map habitat suitability based on the Mahalanobis D² method and the Boyce index.

RESULTS

There was a clear difference in habitat selection by tigers between the exploratory and the settled period. During the exploratory period, tigers selected dense canopy and bamboo forests, but also spent time near villages and relocated village sites. However, settled tigers predominantly selected bamboo forests in complex terrain, riverine forests and teak-mixed forest, and totally avoided human settlements and agriculture areas. There were individual variations in habitat selection between exploratory and settled periods. Based on threshold limits of habitat selection by the Boyce Index, we established that 83% of core and 47% of buffer areas are now suitable habitats for tiger in this reserve.

DISCUSSION

Tiger management often focuses on large-scale measures, but this study for the first time highlights the behaviour and fine-scale individual-specific habitat selection strategies. Such knowledge is vital for management of critical tiger habitats and specifically for the success of reintroduction programs. Our spatially explicit habitat suitability map provides a baseline for conservation planning and optimizing carrying capacity of the tiger population in this reserve.

Estimating abundance and density of Amur tigers along the Sino-Russian border

As an apex predator the Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) could play a pivotal role in maintaining the integrity of forest ecosystems in Northeast Asia. Due to habitat loss and harvest over the past century, tigers rapidly declined in China and are now restricted to the Russian Far East and bordering habitat in nearby China. To facilitate restoration of the tiger in its historical range, reliable estimates of population size are essential to assess effectiveness of conservation interventions. Here we used camera trap data collected in Hunchun National Nature Reserve from April to June 2013 and 2014 to estimate tiger density and abundance using both maximum likelihood and Bayesian spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) methods. A minimum of 8 individuals were detected in both sample periods and the documentation of marking behavior and reproduction suggests the presence of a resident population. Using Bayesian SECR modeling within the 11 400 km(2) state space, density estimates were 0.33 and 0.40 individuals/100 km(2) in 2013 and 2014, respectively, corresponding to an estimated abundance of 38 and 45 animals for this transboundary Sino-Russian population. In a maximum likelihood framework, we estimated densities of 0.30 and 0.24 individuals/100 km(2) corresponding to abundances of 34 and 27, in 2013 and 2014, respectively. These density estimates are comparable to other published estimates for resident Amur tiger populations in the Russian Far East. This study reveals promising signs of tiger recovery in Northeast China, and demonstrates the importance of connectivity between the Russian and Chinese populations for recovering tigers in Northeast China.

Estimating the Population Size and Genetic Diversity of Amur Tigers in Northeast China

Over the past century, the endangered Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) has experienced a severe contraction in demography and geographic range because of habitat loss, poaching, and prey depletion. In its historical home in Northeast China, there appears to be a single tiger population that includes tigers in Southwest Primorye and Northeast China; however, the current demographic status of this population is uncertain. Information on the abundance, distribution and genetic diversity of this population for assessing the efficacy of conservation interventions are scarce. We used noninvasive genetic detection data from scats, capture-recapture models and an accumulation curve method to estimate the abundance of Amur tigers in Northeast China. We identified 11 individual tigers (6 females and 5 males) using 10 microsatellite loci in three nature reserves between April 2013 and May 2015. These tigers are confined primarily to a Hunchun Nature Reserve along the border with Russia, with an estimated population abundance of 9–11 tigers during the winter of 2014–2015. They showed a low level of genetic diversity. The mean number of alleles per locus was 2.60 and expected and observed heterozygosity were 0.42 and 0.49, respectively. We also documented long-distance dispersal (~270 km) of a male Amur tiger to Huangnihe Nature Reserve from the border, suggesting that the expansion of neighboring Russian populations may eventually help sustain Chinese populations. However, the small and isolated population recorded by this study demonstrate that there is an urgent need for more intensive regional management to create a tiger-permeable landscape and increased genetic connectivity with other populations.

Habitat availability is not limiting the distribution of the Bohemian–Bavarian lynx Lynx lynx population

A population of Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx was established by reintroductions in the Bohemian Forest Ecosystem in the 1970s and 1980s. The most recent information on the population status indicates that the distribution has stagnated since the late 1990s, for unknown reasons. We assessed the availability of suitable habitat along the Austrian–German–Czech border, and hypothesized that the Bohemian–Bavarian lynx population is not in equilibrium with habitat suitability. Based on global positioning system data from 10 radio-collared lynx, we used a maximum entropy approach to model suitable habitat. Variables reflecting anthropogenic influence contributed most to the model and were negatively associated with the occurrence of lynx. We evaluated the model prediction using independent records of lynx from monitoring in Bavaria, Germany. Using our habitat approach we estimated the area of potential habitat, based on a mean annual home range of 445 km2 for males and 122 km2 for females. Our results indicated there were 12,415 km2 of suitable habitat, distributed among 13 patches, for a potential population of c. 142 (93–160) resident lynx. We assessed connectivity via least-cost paths and found that all suitable patches could be reached by the lynx. A comparison with the current distribution of lynx, however, confirms that a significant proportion of suitable habitat is not occupied, which indicates that the distribution is limited by factors other than habitat, with illegal killing being the most likely cause. Our study provides crucial information for the development of a conservation strategy and regional planning for the Bohemian–Bavarian lynx population.